Climate Change Politics

Ayapilla Murty
1. Whether global warming is taking place?
Climate change is one of the most complex problems mankind is facing today. Everyone
knows that the impacts of climate change is virtually in every walks of human life such as
science, technology, commerce, economics, politics, food, weather and climate disasters,
increase of poverty etc. Also everyone knows the reason for the climate change and global
warming is due to unprecedented release of Green House Gases (GHGs). Apart from the three
natural GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), the increased emissions also include
several other “man-made” gases including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Out of all these gases, the
single most important gas that is responsible for global warming is the carbon dioxide which
accounts for about 55% of the change in the intensity of the Earth's greenhouse effect. The
contributions of the other gases are 25% for chlorofluorocarbons, 15% for methane, and 5% for
nitrous oxide.
The figure 1 shows that the Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per
decade since 1880, and the rate of warming over the past 40 years is more than twice that:
0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981. The year 2020 was the second-warmest year on record.
Averaged across land and ocean, the 2020 surface temperature was 1.76° F (0.98°
Celsius) warmer than the twentieth-century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C) and 2.14˚F (1.19˚C)
warmer than the pre-industrial period (1880-1900).
 Fig.1.Yearly surface temperature compared to the 20th-century average from 1880–2020. Blue bars
indicate cooler-than-average years; red bars show warmer-than-average years. NOAA Climate.gov graph, based
on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. (Data from NOAA NCEI).

Over the last 25 years, Gangotri glacier has retreated more than 850 meters (930 yards),
with a recession of 76 meters (83 yards) from 1996 to 1999 alone. This means Gangotri glacier
in Himalayas is retreating at present about 25 m per year. Greenland's ice sheet is melting at a
rate of about 239 cubic kilometers (57.3 cubic miles) per year.

Fig.2. Recession of Gangotri glacier in Himalayas from 1780 to 2001 (Courtesy: NASA, based on
data provided by the ASTER Science Team).

Figure 3 indicates the global average atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2020 was 412.5 parts per
million (ppm), setting a new record high amount despite the economic slowdown due to the
COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, the jump of 2.6 ppm over 2019 levels was the fifth-highest annual
increase in NOAA's 63-year record. Since 2000, the global atmospheric carbon dioxide amount
has grown by 43.5 ppm, an increase of 12%.The annual rate of increase in atmospheric carbon
dioxide over the past 60 years is about 100 times faster than previous natural increases, such as
those that occurred at the end of the last ice age 11,000-17,000 years ago. Prior to 1700
(before industrialization), the levels of carbon dioxide were about 280 parts per million ( Lüthi et
al., 2008 and Jouzel et al., 2007). Now the atmospheric average concentration of CO2 in 2021 was
more than 412 ppm. This means CO2 has risen more than 40% within just the past 200 years,
much of this increase is since the 1970s.

Fig.3.The monthly average carbon dioxide measurements recorded at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii from
1960 to 2021 in ppm. The seasonal cycle of highs and lows (small peaks and valleys) is driven by summertime
growth and winter decay of Northern Hemisphere vegetation. The long-term trend of rising carbon dioxide levels is
driven by human activities. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data from NOAA Global Monitoring Lab. (NOAA
NCEI).

2. What is the contribution of major emitters for global warming?

Figure 4a shows the contribution of CO 2 by different countries. It is clear from the Fig.
(4a),while USA with 300 million people, emits half the amount (15%) of GHGs of China (30%)
with 1400 million, India with 1300 million people emits one-fourth (7%) of that of China. In
other words, while china emits 10,000 million tons of CO 2 per year, U.S emits half (5,000 million
tons) and India emits one-fourth (2,500 million tons) of it (Fig.4b). Thus, U.S. per capita
emissions are 15–16 times higher than Indian per capita emissions). Russia & Japan with 1/8 of
India population emit the same as that of India.
Fig.4a: Contribution of CO2 by different countries (%); 4b: Contribution of world countries in million tons (Boden et
al 2017)

3. What is being done by the world in connection with climate change?

IPCC was established in 1988 by WMO & UNEP (United Nations Environment Program)
was established in June 1992. UNFCCC (United Nations Frame work Convention on Climate
Change) was formed with 154 countries and agreed to bring down the GHGs to a harmless
level. In December 1997: Kyoto Protocol was signed by 160 industrialized countries to cut GHG
emissions of rich countries during 2008-12 by 5.2% of 1990 levels but developed countries did
not agree. Particularly, the USA – the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has not
ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Rio & Paris accords were signed by 195 countries in December
2015. Despite Paris accord, emissions of Industrial world have not been decreased to the
desired levels! The CO2 emissions of Annex 1 countries, excluding countries in transition,
instead of decreasing, they increased by 14.5 %. Though the emissions of Annex I countries
declined by 1.3% during 1990-2006, these emission cuts were nowhere close to what was
agreed in Kyoto protocol. So for the sake of USA another chance was given for its emission
reduction by 2012. By 2012 also the huge emitters like USA, China, Russia, U.K and European
countries have not reduced their emissions and rather they kept several restrictions on
developing and underdeveloped countries stating that they should not emit like them by using
the same technology as that of theirs due to which the present situation came like this and it is
difficult to change their technology. Thus they are becoming a hindrance for the industry
development in developing and underdeveloped world.
So India argues that their commitments of reduction of GHGs come only after the major
emitters and cannot afford for hindering economic development as still 20-30% of Indian
population is under below poverty line.
Then all the developing and underdeveloped countries asked for the compensation from
the developed world for improving and using latest technology and develop new technology as
they cannot remain unindustrialized and remain in poverty or sacrifice their economic growth
and depend forever on the developed world as the mistake was done by the developed world,
they have to take the burden. So there was a rift between developed-world versus
developing/under developed economies in climate change meetings. Then developed countries
put trade tax on developing world when they import goods, machinery and technology to meet
the trade deficit and compensation. Then under developed countries argued basing on the
amount of emission of carbon into the atmosphere, the countries should pay carbon tax as
there is lot of variation among the industrialized countries. They say that the country which
emit more carbon should pay more carbon tax. The Stern Review committee (2006) estimated
and said that the present cost of avoiding climate change will be 1% of world’s GDP and if we
neglect now it will cost 20 times more per year. So on 12 December 2015, 196 countries met in
Paris called Conference of Parties (COP-15) and decided to limit global warming to well below 20
C, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. So recently again on
December 12, 2020 world leaders met virtually for “Climate Ambition Summit 2020” and
reviewed the situation and found that there is a trend of decrease in carbon emissions due to
improved technology, use of alternate fuels and energies, shutting down some thermal power
plants, improved emission technology in automobiles etc and hope to bring zero carbon
solutions by 2030.
4. What are the recent being taken by India
Despite the least emitter (with number second rank population in the world) when
compared to U.S and China, India as a responsible nation took to reduce its emissions honoring
the Paris accord sacrificing its development.
 Taking a closer look, India is on track to achieve two of the three components of its Paris
target. First, India has already reduced emissions intensity by 21% given its target to reduce
emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35% by 2030. Second, with 38% of non-fossil fuel capacity
(includes renewables, large hydro and nuclear), India is just 2% short of its 2030 target of 40%
of installed non-fossil fuel electricity capacity. But on the third component, to achieve 2.5 to 3
billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in forest cover by 2030, much more work is needed.
On the domestic front, India aims to install an ambitious 175 Giga watts (GW) of
renewable energy by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030. India already has 90 GW or renewable energy,
representing 24% of total installed capacity. In addition, India has some of the lowest solar
tariffs globally, dropping to ₹ 2.36 ($ 0.0316)/KWh and thermal capacity has declined from 70%
in 2015 to 61% in 2020. The India Cooling Action Plan at the national level and progress on
building efficient buildings and cool roofs at the state level are also driving efforts to save
energy and reduce heat trapping hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). The government’s FAME-II
scheme provides ₹ 10,000 crore ($ 1.4 billion) is moving forward with electric vehicles.
On the international front, India is leading efforts with the International Solar Alliance
(ISA), Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, International Coalition for Disaster Resilient
Infrastructure (CDRI), and Leadership Group for Industry Transition. India recently created an
Apex Committee for Implementation of Paris Agreement (AIPA). The aim of AIPA is to increase
coordination among 14 key ministries and to engage business, stakeholders and the U.N. on
delivery of the Paris Agreement. The Road from Paris Issue Brief captures India’s climate action
progress, developed by NRDC (Anjali Jaiswal & Sameer Kwatra, 2021) and partners the
Administrative Staff College of India (ASCI), the Council on Energy, Environment and Water
(CEEW), Indian Institute of Public Health - Gandhinagar (IIPH-G), the Self Employed Women’s
Association (SEWA) and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI).

References:
1. Anjali Jaiswal & Sameer Kwatra (2021) :
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/anjali-jaiswal/climate-action-all-eyes-india-and-net-zero-
india
2. Boden, T.A., Marland, G., and Andres, R.J. (2017): National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-
Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2014, Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy,
doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2017.
3. Climate Ambition Summit (2020):
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/anjali-jaiswal/climate-action-all-eyes-india
4. Dieter Lu¨thi , Martine Le Floch , Bernhard Bereiter , Thomas Blunier , Jean-Marc
Barnola , Urs Siegenthaler , Dominique Raynaud , Jean Jouzel , Hubertus Fischer , Kenji
Kawamura & Thomas F. Stocker (2008) : High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration
record 650,000–800,000 years before present, NATURE| Vol 453| 15 May 2008
5. Jouzel, J. et al. (2007): Orbital and millennial Antarctic climate variability over the last
800,000 years. Science 317, 793–796
6. Gangotri Glacier: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/glaciers/questions/climate.html
7. NRDC: https://www.nrdc.org/experts/anjali-jaiswal/climate-action-all-eyes-india
8. NOAA NCEI: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-
change-global-temperature
9. The Stern Review(2006), www.hm-treasury.gov.uk;
http://mudancasclimaticas.cptec.inpe.br/~rmclima/pdfs/destaques/sternreview_report_co
mplete.pdf