Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354

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Applied Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

China’s regional CO2 emissions reduction potential: A study

of Chongqing city q
Xianchun Tan a,⇑, Lele Dong a, Dexue Chen b, Baihe Gu a, Yuan Zeng a
a
Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
b
College of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

h i g h l i g h t s

 A three-phase model of regional CO2 emission reduction potential was built.

 Chongqing, the only municipality in the Midwest of China, was taken as example.
 The driving factors of CO2 emission in Chongqing were analysed.
 The future CO2 emission reduction potential in Chongqing was predicted.
 The difficulties of achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in 2020 were assessed.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Since China has put forward a series of obligatory Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction targets,
Received 14 November 2014 provincial governments have issued provincial-level ‘‘Twelfth Five-Year’’ carbon intensity (CO2
Received in revised form 9 June 2015 emissions/GDP) reduction targets. There are 653 cities distributed throughout the eastern, middle and
Accepted 30 June 2015
western parts of China, and each region has different quotas and paths to reduce GHG emissions, while
Available online 18 July 2015
the western part has greater challenges than the others. This paper predicts CO2 emission reduction
potential of Chongqing, assesses the difficulty of achieving its CO2 emission reduction targets, and anal-
Keywords:
yses its low-carbon transition path. The results show that the carbon intensity of Chongqing in 2020 will
Low-carbon development
CO2 emissions
range from 1.58 to 1.75 ton CO2/104 RMB, and there exist some scenarios with strong potential to meet
LMDI carbon intensity reduction targets for 2020. Improved technology, energy efficiency, the optimization of
STIRPAT model energy input mix, and the adjustment of industrial structure are suggested to be major strategies to reach
Scenario analysis Chongqing’s carbon intensity targets.
Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Over the past century, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have
risen in parallel with average global temperatures, with early cli-
mate change associated with greenhouse gases having already
resulted in huge economic losses worldwide [1]. The Chinese cen-
tral government has set a 2020 target to reduce CO2 emissions per
unit of GDP by 40–45% from 2005 levels and will cap CO2 output by
2030. To that end, 31 provincial and municipal governments have
q
This article is based on a short proceedings paper in Energy Procedia Volume
161 (2014). It has been substantially modified and extended, and has been subject
to the normal peer review and revision process of the journal. This paper is included
in the Special Issue of ICAE2014 edited by Prof. J Yan, Prof. DJ Lee, Prof. SK Chou, and
Prof. U Desideri.
⇑ Corresponding author at: Institute of Policy and Management (IPM), Chinese
Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100190, China. Tel.: +86 15210631280.
E-mail address: txc@casipm.ac.cn (X. Tan).
set their respective carbon intensity reduction targets for the 12th
Five-Year Plan period. With these aggressive goals in mind, how to
define regional low-carbon targets, identify needed measures, and
implement policies to achieve low-carbon development have
become important issues. There are 653 cities distributed through-
out eastern, middle, and western China, each with different GHG
emission reduction paths. Western cities are facing more pressure
than the others in achieving GHG intensity targets because they are
still in the rapid industrialization stage.
Low-carbon potential can be estimated by status-based key fac-
tor analysis and by status-based trend prediction. For status-based
key factor analysis, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) [2] and BSI et al. [3,4] respectively provide a
top-down and a bottom-up (product-based) CO2 calculation sys-
tem. Furthermore, existing key factor analyses may be subdivided
into structural decomposition analyses (SDAs) using input–output
tables and index decomposition analyses (IDAs) using sector-level

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.06.071
0306-2619/Ó 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1346 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354
data [5–7]. SDAs have mostly been used to model the structures of
national economies, while IDAs more closely model the individual
sectors within a specific geographic region, which is more suitable
for region-specific low-carbon research. Among many IDA models,
the log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model is
believed to be the most widely applicable [8] and was adopted in
early studies on CO2 emissions by Torvanger [9] and Grubler
[10]. Shrestha and Timilsina [11] first studied CO2 emission issues
in China using this method. Ang [12] compared various decompo-
sition methods and argued that the LMDI analysis was the pre-
ferred method because of its theoretical foundation, adaptability,
ease of use, and transparency in the interpretation of results.
These results were confirmed by Cahill and Gallachóir [13], who
evaluated five decomposition methods and finally recommended
LMDI. Moreover, LMDI analysis has been applied in several energy
and environmental studies, such as of regional differences of CO2
emissions in China by Lei et al. [14], of CO2 emissions of China’s
transport sector by Wang et al. [15], of CO2 emissions in Greece
by Hatzigeorgiou et al. [16], of US manufacturing energy consump-
tion by Ang and Liu [17] and of energy consumption and CO2 emis-
sions in Mexico’s iron and steel industry by Sheinbaum et al. [18].
Tian et al. [19], Xuet al. [20], and Liu and Fan [21] studied the steel,
cement, and other industrial sectors of China, respectively, and
identified their respective key emission factors. Yang and Chen
[22] identified and quantitatively analysed the main factors
responsible for industrial CO2 emissions of Chongqing using the
LMDI method. Chen et al. [23] presented a LMDI analysis of
China’s energy-related industrial CO2 emissions from 1985 to
2007, as well as a comparative analysis of differential influences
of various factors in six economic sectors.
Status-based trend prediction models, on the other hand, can be
classified as either direct construction models or mixed construc-
tion models. Using a direct construction model involves building
a Kaya equation, an IPAT, or a STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by
regression on population, affluence and technology) model for pre-
diction based on the relationship between CO2 emissions and its
influencing factors. Hubacek et al. [24] and Chen et al. [25] adopted
the IPAT model to assess different drivers behind CO2 emissions
and successfully predicted the relations between human activities
and the environment, respectively. Zhu and Zhang [26] examined
the environmental pressure of Beijing relative to its population
and wealth, noting that the greatest driver behind total CO2 emis-
sions is urbanization. Mixed construction means to build an input–
output, a MARKAL-MARCRO or CGE mixed energy economic model
for predicting CO2 emissions based on the relationship between the
environment (CO2 emissions) and macroeconomic parameters,
energy consumption, and sector composition. Pao et al. [27] pre-
dicted China’s CO2 emissions based on a modified grey model.
Wei et al. [28] proposed accounting and reduction policies for
CO2 emissions and calculated China’s Greenhouse Gas emissions
from the aspect of energy-use. Lin et al. [29] evaluated the energy
conservation potential of China’s power sector through scenario
analysis. Hannah and Brian [30] simulated the potential impact
of a range of policy measures on benchmark trends of energy
demand in 2030 using a technical model for future car stocks in
Ireland, focusing on the impact of electric car policies on CO2 emis-
sions. Ansari and Seifi [31] and Li et al. [32] simulated future CO2
emissions from Iran’s cement sector and China’s industrial sector,
respectively, using a system dynamics model. Gu et al. [33] and
Tan et al. [34] investigated CO2 emission reductions using scenario
analysis based on a combination of the chemical and auto sectors.
Wang and Tan [35] recommended a path towards low-carbon after
characterizing the status of the western provinces of China.
In this paper, an analysis model that integrates the present sit-
uation, key influencing factors, and potential analysis while taking
the status quo and key factors of regional CO2 emissions into
account to evaluate the potential challenges faced by regional
low-carbon development is established. The paper also modifies
the STIRPAT model according to the key factors that influence
China’s regional CO2 emissions to accurately reflect China’s reali-
ties and provide a theoretical foundation for the governments to
set reasonable low-carbon targets. And Chongqing, one of China’s
western cities, is used to exemplify the regional CO2 emission
reduction potential.
2. Methodology
To evaluate China’s regional low-carbon potential, an integrated
low-carbon potential model involving three stages was built,
involving the calculation, the factor decomposition and the analy-
sis of potential future CO2 emissions. First, a calculation algorithm
was established to evaluate the CO2 emission status in the region.
Then, the LMDI decomposition method was used to identify the
key factors in the calculation algorithm influencing the local CO2
emissions of the region. Finally, a STIRPAT model was modified
to incorporate these key factors and used to predict future CO2
emissions in this region.
2.1. Case study and data
In this study, an example analysis is performed for Chongqing.
Chongqing is the only municipality in the western part of China
and is one of the six old industrial bases in the country, as well
as one of the first national low-carbon pilot cities. It is one of rep-
resentative municipalities across China especially dominated by
heavy industry that are faced with challenges in reaching GHG
emission reduction goals. So a detailed analysis of Chongqing’s
CO2 emissions reduction potential is made. The energy consump-
tion structure of the city is divided into end-use energy consumers
including primary industry (farming, forestry, animal husbandry
and fishery), secondary industry (industry and construction), ter-
tiary industry (other than transport), transportation, and house-
hold consumption.
The data used in the following case study include economic
data, energy consumption data, scale data, and others, which are
obtained from the Regional Statistical Yearbook, regional
‘‘Twelfth Five-Year’’ plans and field investigations, respectively,
or estimated through GM (1, 1) (see Table A1, Appendix A).
The economic data (containing the output value for each sector
and resident income) and scale data (including population scale,
household scale, and transport vehicles) were collected from the
Chongqing Statistical Yearbook from 2000 to 2012. Different
energy consumption data for each sector were extracted from
China Energy Statistical Yearbook from 2000 to 2012. The CO2
emission factors for different types of fuels came from the
Guidelines on Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories; the standard
coal coefficients used to convert the different types of energy (coal,
coke, gasoline, kerosene, diesel oil, fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas
(LPC), natural gas, heat, electricity, and other energy) to standard
coal equivalents (Mtce) were derived from the General Principles
of Comprehensive Energy Consumption Calculation (GB/T 2589–
2008). All the related economic data were indexed to the year
2005 (2005 = 100).
The future data, including gross regional product of Chongqing,
total energy consumption, energy structure, industrial structure
and technical progress rate, were estimated from field investiga-
tion. Based on the ‘‘Twelfth Five-Year’’ plan of Chongqing and its
current developing situation, a set of questionnaire involving econ-
omy, energy, industry, and technology issues covering the period
from 2015 to 2020 were designed (see Appendix B). The question-
naires were mainly distributed to Chongqing government
 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354 1347

departments (such as the Chongqing Development and Reform of the region; TFI is total household income of the region; AFI is
Commission, the Chongqing Economy and Information average household income of the region; FN is number of house-
Commission, the Bureau of Statistics of Chongqing and their holds in the region; CIij is CO2 emission factor of fuel j consumed
sub-departments), Chongqing government research institutions, by sector i of the region; FSij is proportion of fuel j consumed by sec-
industry experts, and industry associations in Chongqing. A total tor i of the region in the total fuel consumption of the sector; EIPi is
of 63 questionnaires were handed out, and the response rate to energy intensity of sector i of the region; EIT is energy intensity of
our questionnaires was 95.2%. We processed the collected data transportation sector of the region; EIR is energy intensity of resi-
by the mean value method using SPSS. The future population in dents of the region; ESi is share of the output value of sector i in
2020 was predicted by a GM (1, 1) model through MATLAB soft- the total regional output value; PCG is per-capita GDP of the region;
ware based on the population data in recent years from 2004 to PVG is average output value per transport vehicle of the region.
2012, with some error analysis and accuracy tests. Assuming
X
5 X
4
2.2. Calculation of CO2 emissions 1¼ Iij =I ð4Þ
i¼1 j¼1
We analyze regional energy consumption by dividing the econ-
omy into sectors and end-use energy consumers including primary xij ¼ Iij =I ð5Þ
industry (extractive industries, such as farming, forestry, animal

husbandry and fishery), secondary industry (manufacturing and Then xij ðt Þ herein is expressed as:
construction), tertiary industry (services other than transport), LðIij0 ; IijT Þ
transportation, and household consumption.The CO2 emission cal-  ij ðt Þ ¼
x ð6Þ
LðI0 ; IT Þ
culation method and CO2 emission factors of different fuels recom-
mended by the IPCC and the Guidelines for Provincial Greenhouse Take the time derivative of both sides of Eq. (3), and multiply
Gas Inventories, respectively, are used. The total CO2 emissions of them with the results of Eq. (4), integrate the result from T through
the region, I is calculated as follows: to 0; then using the mean value theorem for integrals and accord-
ing to the function of logarithmic mean, we obtain:
X
4 X
5
" # " #
I¼ Eij  EF j ð1Þ X5 X
4 X
5 X
4
j¼1 i¼1
IT
I0
 exp  ij ðt  Þ ln CI
x ijT
CIij0
 exp  ij ðt Þ ln FS
x ijT
FSij0
i¼1 j¼1 i¼1 j¼1
where j = 1, 2, 3, 4 represent coal, petroleum, natural gas and elec- " # " #
X
3 X
4 X3 X
4
tric power, respectively; i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 represent the five sectors of  exp  ij ðt Þ ln EIP
x iT
EIPi0
 exp  ij ðt  Þ ln ES
x ES
iT
i0
primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, transporta- i¼1 j¼1 i¼1 j¼1
tion, and household consumption, respectively; Eij is the consump-
" # " #
X
3 X
4 X3 X
4
tion of energy j by sector; i and EF j is CO2 emission factor of energy j.  exp x
 ij ðt 
Þ ln PCGT
PCG0
 exp x
 ij ðt 
Þ ln PPT0
i¼1 j¼1 i¼1 j¼1
" # " # ð7Þ
2.3. Decomposition model XX
4 XX
4
 exp  ij ðt Þ ln EIT
x T
EIT 0
 exp  ij ðt  Þ ln PVG
x PVG0
T

i¼4 j¼1 i¼4 j¼1

To identify the key factors influencing regional CO2 emissions, " # " #
an LMDI decomposition model, which turns energy consumption XX
4 XX
4
 exp  ij ðt Þ ln VN
x VN0
T
 exp  ij ðt  Þ ln EIR
x EIR
T
or environmental index variations into the contributions of various 0
i¼5 j¼1 i¼5 j¼1
driving factors and addresses surplus from decomposition and iso- " # " #
XX
4 XX
4
lates processing data [36], was adopted in our study to transform  exp x
 ij ðt 
Þ ln AFI T
 exp x
 ij ðt 
Þ ln FN T
AFI0 FN 0
the complex calculation on the right side of the CO2 emissions cal- i¼5 j¼1 i¼5 j¼1
culation into a cumulative form that enables the determination of
the independent contribution of each variable to the target vari- Logarithms are taken of the two sides of both equations and
able’s changes. then simplified to give:
The decomposition model of CO2 emission is described as GðCO2 Þ ¼ ½CðCIÞ þ CðFSÞ þ CðEIPÞ þ CðESÞ þ CðPCGÞ þ CðPÞ
follows:
þ ½CðEITÞ þ CðPVGÞ þ CðVNÞ þ ½CðEIRÞ þ CðAFIÞ þ CðFNÞ ð8Þ
X5 X 4 X3 X 4
Iij Eij Ei Y i Y XX 4
Iij Eij Ei Y i
I¼ Iij ¼ Pþ V where GðCO2 Þ is the growth of CO2 emissions and the Gð:Þ are the
i¼1 j¼1 i¼1 j¼1
E ij Ei Y i Y P E
i¼4 j¼1 ij
Ei Y i VN contributions from each of the factors. If the variation of IT relative
XX 4 to I0 were minor, then lnðIt =I0 Þ in this equation could indicate
Iij Eij Ei
þ AFI  FN ð2Þ growth of CO2 emissions. This, however, is not true; the variation
E Ei TFI
i¼5 j¼1 ij of IT relative to I0 is in fact significant. Nevertheless, to simplify,
and can be further expressed as: we still used lnðIt =I0 Þ as the growth of CO2 emissions because
although absolute growth is significantly different from predicted
X
3 X
4 XX
4
growth, the relative trend is the same. GðCO2 Þ in this equation
I¼ CIij  FSij  EIPi  ESi  PCG  P þ CIij  FSij implies that the current-period CO2 emissions and base-period
i¼1 j¼1 i¼4 j¼1
growth can be decomposed into contributions from five sectors
XX
4
(primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, trans-
 EIT  PVG  VN þ CIij  FSij  EIR  AFI  FN ð3Þ
i¼5 j¼1
portation and household consumption) and 12 factors, which are
CI; FS; EIP; ES; PCG; P; EIT; PVG; VN; EIR; AFI; and FN.
where Iij is CO2 emission from fuel j consumed by sector i of the
region; Eij is volume of fuel j consumed by sector i of the region; 2.4. Potential analysis method
Ei is total fuel consumed by sector i of the region; Y i is output value
of sector i of the region; Y is total output value of the region; P is Through the LMDI decomposition analysis, some key factors
population of the region; VN is the number of transport vehicles that have great influence on regional CO2 emissions were
1348 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354
determined. To identify regional low-carbon potential, a STIRPAT
model that took these key factors into account was used. This
model was a modified form of the IPAT model and reflected the
stress imposed by population on environments. York et al. [37]
built a STIRPAT model from the IPAT model and convert it to loga-
rithmic form, which can be summarized as:
lnI ¼ lna þ bðlnPÞ þ cðlnAÞ þ dðlnTÞ þ lne
This model is highly reliant on the three factors on the right of
the equation: population (P), per-capita GDP (A) and carbon inten-
sity of economic activities (T). Here, T does not reflect regional
changes in industrial structure and energy structure, whereas
many of China’s policies are meant to curb CO2 emissions through
adjusting those very factors. Moreover, of the three factors, popu-
lation (P) and per-capita GDP (A) are easy to identify, while carbon
intensity of economic activities (T) is not, because it includes mul-
tiple emission sources; additionally, there are substantial differ-
ences between the carbon intensities of each emission source
and their future changes.
Nor does the model take into account technological advance-
ment, which is an important way for China to reduce CO2
emissions. The most prominent manifestation of low-carbon tech-
nological advances is to reduce CO2 dioxide emissions per unit of
GDP output. The reason for introducing the technological advance
factor into the prediction model is that the carbon intensity factor
(T) is due to future changes in industrial and energy structure,
which does not reflect emission changes from the research and
promotion of low-carbon technologies. It is thus more realistic to
introduce technology advancement into the prediction model.
Here is one point to be noted: although the change in carbon
intensity is caused by two types of factors (energy and industrial
structure/technological advancement), these two factors are inde-
pendent of each other.
It is thus necessary to design a robust method to estimate the
future carbon intensity of regional economic activities. Thus, two
modifications were made to the STRPAT model using the identified
key factors that influence CO2 emissions before the model was
actually used.
2.4.1. Modification of the STIRPAT model
(1) Expansion of carbon intensity (T) in various economic
sectors
The carbon intensity (T) of economic activities can be defined as
Eq. (10). By taking the logarithms from both sides of Eq. (10), we
obtain Eq. (11). To account for the impact of the regional energy
and industrial structures on regional CO2 emissions, ln T has to
be changed as in Eq. (12).
T ¼ I=GDP
lnT ¼ lnI  lnGDP
lnT ¼ ln½E1  ðEF 1 þ E2 =E1  EF 2 þ E3 =E1  EF 3 þ E4 =E1  EF 4 Þ
 ln½GDP2  ðGDP1 =GDP 2 þ 1 þ GDP3 =GDP 2 Þ
(2) Incorporating technological advancement into the STIRPAT
model
The most significant indicator of technological advancement is
reduced energy consumption per unit of GDP. In the STIRPAT
model, technological advancement is represented by T (the carbon
intensity of economic activities). Therefore, we expand the STIRPAT
model by incorporating the rate of technological advancement (f )
into the model and obtain the following equation:
lnI ¼ alnP þ blnA þ dð1  f ÞlnT þ e
Furthermore, as there is likely a quadratic or higher order
relationship between per-capita GDP and CO2 emissions according
to the Kuznets Curve Hypothesis, we consider turning the
per-capita GDP in the equation into a quadratic relationship and
making correction in the constants. Then, the STIRPAT model mod-
ified to reflect China’s realities can be expressed as
ð9Þ
lnI ¼ a ln P þ bðln AÞ þ cðln A2 Þ þ dð1  f Þfln ½E1  ðEF 1
þ E2 =E1  EF 2 þ E3 =E1  EF 3 þ E4 =E1  EF 4 Þ
 ln½GDP2  ðGDP1 =GDP2 þ 1 þ GDP3 =GDP2 Þg þ e ð14Þ
where ln I is the CO2 emissions of the target region in the target
year; P is the population of the target region in the target year; A
is the per-capita GDP of the target region in the target year; f is
the rate of technology advancement of the target region in the tar-
get year relative to the base year; Ej is the use of energy j by the tar-
get region in the target year (j = 1, 2, 3, 4, representing coal,
petroleum, natural gas and electric power, respectively); EF j is the
emission factor of energy j of the target region in the target year
(j = 1, 2, 3, 4, representing coal, petroleum, natural gas and electric
power, respectively); GDPi is the output value of industry i of the
target region in the target region (i = 1, 2, 3, representing the first,
second and third industry, respectively); a, b, c, and d are parame-
ters; and e is the error.
2.4.2. Prediction of the key factors in the STIRPAT model
Key factors in the STIRPAT model include population, per-capita
GDP, variety-specific energy use, and industry-specific output
value. The future value of the key factors are either from field
investigation or predicted by a GM (1, 1) model which describes
the future pattern of development using a grey prediction
model based on limited, incomplete information [38–40]. This
model has proven successful across many fields and is mature.
However, given the limited space here, we do not describe this
algorithm. Given the few samples and limited information avail-
able for analysis of CO2 emissions, and as grey prediction does
not require a large volume of information to provide accurate pre-
diction, GM (1, 1) is used in our study to predict the future popu-
lation through MATLAB software. Through field investigation, we
obtained the future values of other key influencing factors under
the baseline scenario which will be described presently. As for
determining the key influencing factors under other scenarios,
we use an interval estimation method that combines historical
data and the baseline scenario. Their values are set to either the
upper or lower limit of the 95% confidence interval, as appropriate
to each scenario and parameter.
ð10Þ
3. Results and discussion
ð11Þ
3.1. Estimation of CO2 emissions in Chongqing
The calculation results for the case of Chongqing indicate a
ð12Þ 2-stage profile for the city’s CO2 emissions during 2000–2012: a
fall during 2000–2003 and a continued rise during 2004–2012
(Fig. 1). CO2 emissions in 2003 were down 16.7% from 2000, while
the emission level in 2012 was up 160.9% over 2003. During 2000–
2012, the city’s annual CO2 emissions growth rate was 6.7%. The
carbon intensity in 2012 dropped 51.1% from 2000.
As indicated in Fig. 1, during 2000–2012, CO2 emissions con-
tributed by secondary industry accounted for more than 70% of
the city’s total. Emissions from primary industry dropped slightly
from 6.2% to 3.8%; CO2 emissions from tertiary industry and trans-
portation showed a remarkable increase from 1.9% to 7.1% and
ð13Þ from 3.2% to 7.6%, respectively.
 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354 1349

Fig. 1. Sectoral CO2 emissions in Chongqing (2000–2012).

3.2. Characterization of CO2 emissions in Chongqing Table 1

Decomposition of the impact of different factors on the change in CO2 emissions in
Based on the above analysis, we conclude the following about Chongqing, 2000–2012.
CO2 emissions in Chongqing. Variable Definition 2000– 2004– 2009–
2004 2009 2012
(1) The industry sector is the dominant contributor to CO2 emis- FS Percentage of sector-specific energy 0.009 0.001 0.014
sions of Chongqing. From 2005 to 2012 the industry sector consumption in the total energy
was the largest contributor to CO2 emissions through the consumption of the region
burning of fossil fuels. In the year 2005, sectoral CO2 emis- EIP Energy intensity by sector of the region 0.619 0.179 0.353
EIP1 Energy intensity of the primary industry 0.023 0.005 0.005
sions from burning fossil fuels accounted for 71.1% of the
EIP2 Energy intensity of the secondary 0.588 0.046 0.375
city’s total CO2 emissions, and this percentage rose to industry
73.9% in 2009 and declined to 70.3% in 2012. The second lar- EIP3 Energy intensity of the tertiary industry 0.008 0.041 0.016
gest sector was household consumption, which accounted ES Share of the output value by sector in the 0.026 0.073 0.079
for more than 10% of the city’s total emissions. total output value of the region
PCG Per-capita GDP of the region 0.383 0.411 0.445
(2) CO2 emissions from transport and household consumption
P Population of the region 0.018 0.019 0.03
increased rapidly. From 2005 to 2012, the annual rate of EIT Energy intensity of transportation sector 0.038 0.021 0.002
increase in CO2 emissions of the city’s transportation sector in the region
was 14.46% and that of household consumption was 7.67%, PVG Average output value per transport 0.025 0.035 0.027
vehicle of the region
both of which were higher than the city’s average increase
VN Number of transport vehicles of the 0.044 0.034 0.053
in CO2 emissions. region
(3) Fossil fuels, especially coal, are the main sources of CO2 EIR Energy intensity of residents of the region 0.009 0.027 0.005
emissions. During 2000–2012, approximately 50% of CO2 AFI Average household income of the region 0.006 0.007 0.047
emissions resulted from direct coal combustion. CO2 FN Number of households in the region 0.006 0.008 0.012

emissions from petroleum and natural gas accounted for

approximately 14%. Emissions from electric power were
approximately 36%. Nearly 98% of the city’s electric power
was generated from coal combustion.
3.3. Driving factors that influencing CO2 emissions in Chongqing
The CO2 emissions of Chongqing during 2000–2012 are calcu-
lated using the LMDI decomposition algorithm (see Table 1 for
the results). The results are as follows.
The regional energy structure, energy intensity of tertiary
industry, industrial structure, per-capita GDP, population, number
of transport vehicles, energy consumption intensity of residents,
and number of households are all contributors to CO2 emission
growth. In contrast, the energy intensity of secondary industry
and transportation, the output value of transport vehicles, and
regional household income suppress CO2 emission growth. By
adopting advanced energy-efficient technologies, primary indus-
try, secondary industry, and the transportation sector have been
able to inhibit CO2 emission growth.
Of all the factors promoting CO2 emission growth, per-capita
GDP had the greatest effect. During 2000–2012, per-capita GDP
growth resulted in a 9.9% increase in annual average CO2 emis-
sions. Changes in industrial structure also contributed to the city’s
CO2 emission growth. During 2000–2012, industrial structure
adjustment resulted in a 3% increase in the city’s annual average
CO2 emissions. Energy structure adjustment contributed 1.6%
increase to the city’s annual average CO2 emissions during 2000–
2009. In contrast, from 2009 to 2012, energy structure adjustment
gradually began to suppress the city’s total CO2 emissions.
Of all the inhibitors to CO2 increase, the energy intensity of sec-
ondary industry was the greatest, with a total contribution of 89.7%
in the period of 2000–2012.
Based on the above results, we choose industrial structure,
energy structure, per-capita GDP and technology advancement
that influences energy intensity as the key factors influencing the
city’s CO2 emissions.
3.4. Potential analysis of CO2 emissions in Chongqing
According to the factor analysis results, we select the industrial
structure, energy structure, per-capita GDP and technology
advancement that influences energy intensity as the key factors.
1350 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354

As population does not show significant impact on the city’s CO2
emissions, its value in the scenarios is assumed to be constant,
which is predicted by a GM (1, 1) model. Population data from
2004 to 2012 are used to fit the GM (1, 1) model, and the latest
released population data in 2013 by Statistical Information of
Chongqing are used as testing data. The time response function
of the GM (1, 1) model is obtained as follows:
Xðk þ 1Þ ¼ 690199:57  expð0:004  kÞ  687350:75
The result shows that the largest error in the training set is
0.52%, and the error of the test data is 0.44%. The ratio of the mean
square and the probability of small error in the current model are
0.078% and 100%, respectively, which indicates that the model is
extremely accurate, and there is no need to amend residuals
(Fig. 2). Using this GM (1, 1) model, the future population in
2020 was predicted.
According to the base scenario so defined, continuation of the
present trend without any impact and extrapolation to a certain
year in the future are assumed. A higher scenario value and a lower
one are established for each of the scenario parameters. The higher
and lower scenario values for per-capita GDP, percentage of coal
consumption, percentage of output from secondary industry and
the rate of technology advancement are defined as the bounds of
a 95% confidence interval of their respective estimates for 2020,
while the percentage of consumption of other energy sources
and other industries are based on these settings according to actual
investigation data. The scenarios set for future potentials in 2020
are presented in Table 2.
Again, we had identified four key factors: the industrial struc-
ture, energy structure, per-capita GDP and technology advance-
ment. There are three development scenarios for each factor: the
ð15Þ higher scenario value, the lower scenario, and the base scenario.
Based on combinations of factors and scenarios, we analysed 81
possible future scenarios. However, certain outlier scenarios were
rejected, as there is some correlation between individual
parameters.
The correlation between factors presented in Table 3 indicates
high positive correlation between per-capita GDP and industrial
structure, as well as positive correlation between the rate of tech-
nology advancement (ten thousand tons of standard coal/GDP) and
secondary industry output, per-capita GDP and coal consumption.
Unreasonable scenarios according to correlation analysis were
removed from further consideration. For instance, the output value

Fig. 2. The result of the simulating effect of the population in Chongqing (2000– Fig. 3. Carbon intensity predicted for 2020 under different scenarios. Note: carbon
2012) from GM (1, 1) model. intensity is calculated with constant price in 2005 using GDP deflator (2005 = 100).

Table 2
Scenario setting for potential analysis on CO2 emissions in 2020.

Variable Lower scenario Base scenario Higher scenario

Average annual growth rate of per-capita GDP (2012–2020) % 7.1% 7.4% 7.7%
Resident population (104 persons) 3117.67 3117.67 3117.67
Energy consumption structure (%) Coal 50.00% 55.00% 60.00%
Petroleum 14.30% 13.00% 11.00%
Natural gas 18.70% 17.00% 15.50%
Electric power 17.00% 15.00% 13.00%
Industrial structure (%) Primary industry 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Secondary industry 39.50% 44.50% 49.50%
Tertiary industry 55.50% 50.50% 45.50%
Rate of technology advancement (from 2012) % 24.00% 32.00% 40.00%

Table 3
Correlation test results.

Per-capita GDP Coal consumption Output value of secondary industry Technology advancement
Per-capita GDP 1
Coal consumption 0.919 1
Output value of secondary industry 0.997 0.915 1
Technology advancement 0.715 0.678 0.802 1

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level.

 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354
Fig. 4. The number of scenarios that reach the given reduction target of carbon intensity in 2020.
of secondary industry could not be high when per-capita GDP
remained low. After removal of these scenarios, 33 scenarios were
retained for analysis (see Table C1, Appendix C). As the probabili-
ties of different scenarios which were composed of different mod-
els of development are different, we explore the probabilities of
each scenario’s occurrence to obtain a more realistic and objective
result. Based on the correlation between each factor, we regard
three highly correlated factors, viz. per-capita GDP, secondary
industry output, and coal consumption, as a ‘‘synthesis’’; combin-
ing this ‘‘synthesis’’ with the rate of technology advancement, we
obtain the probability for each scenario. Here is the method in
detail. When two factors in the ‘‘synthesis’’ belong to the same sce-
nario which means that two factors belong to one of the three sce-
narios (the base scenario, the higher scenario and the lower
scenario) at the same time, the probability of its occurrence is their
correlation coefficient; otherwise the probability of its occurrence
is (1-correlation coefficient). We first define the probability of
the synthesis’s occurrence as the product of the three correlation
coefficients of the ‘‘synthesis’’. Then, we do combined analysis on
this probability and the rate of technology advancement using a
similar method as was used for the ‘‘synthesis’’. As there is a higher
correlation between technology advancement and per-capita GDP
and the secondary industry output value, whose correlation coeffi-
cient is approximately 0.8, so we define the correlation coefficient
as 0.8 when the technology advancement and the ‘‘synthesis’’
occur in the same direction; otherwise the correlation coefficient
is 0.2. Multiplying this correlation coefficient with the probability
of the synthesis’s occurrence, we finally get the probability of each
single scenario’s occurrence. The results indicate an increase of
approximately 33.5% in the city’s total CO2 emissions in 2020 over
2012 levels. Carbon intensity of the city in 2020 is calculated given
the CO2 emission levels under the above scenarios. Fig. 3 shows
that the carbon intensity of Chongqing in 2020 will range from
1.58 to 1.75 ton CO2/104 RMB.
3.5. Discussion
According to the recent ‘‘National Climate Change Plan (2014–
2020)’’, published by the National Development and Reform
Commission on Nov. 4th, 2014, China should achieve its 2020 tar-
get to bring down CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% from
2005 levels. Fig. 4 shows that under approximately 21.21% of all
the reasonable scenarios, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP would
decrease by 40–42% of the 2005 level by 2020, and in 33.33% and
24.24% of all the reasonable scenarios, CO2 emissions per unit of
GDP would decrease by 42–44% and 44–45%, respectively.
Additionally, there are seven scenarios, which account for 21.21%
1351
of all the reasonable scenarios, in which CO2 emissions per unit
of GDP would be reduce by 45% or more than 45% in 2020 from
2005 levels.
Moreover, in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan that covers 2011–2015,
the Chinese central government has assigned different aggregate
carbon intensity reduction targets ranging from 16% to 19.5% to
the 31 provinces taking differences in provincial development into
account, which is intended to ease the pressure on less affluent
regions or regions targeted for accelerated development.
Therefore, this allocation partially embodies the principle of fair-
ness. Chongqing was assigned a moderately ambitious carbon
intensity reduction target of 17% in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. In
this paper, we assume that the approach of allocating CO2 emission
reduction targets among provinces in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan
will be continued into the period 2015–2020 as well [41]. Thus,
we assume that the carbon intensity of Chongqing will be reduced
by 42.5% over the period of 2005–2020, and analyse the 33 reason-
able scenarios. Of those scenarios that are used, possible outcomes
vary because of different mixes of development patterns. Scenario
results indicate that Chongqing achieves its 2020 targets in 22 sce-
narios of the 33 scenarios representing a 68.75% chance of success,
meaning that the city has a relatively high likelihood of fulfilling its
targets. More rapid technology advancement represents a higher
likelihood of target fulfilment; the possibility of reaching targets
can be as high as 100% when the carbon intensity under the rea-
sonable scenarios is the highest. Scenarios involving a lower per-
centage of secondary industry and lower coal consumption also
present improved possibilities for target fulfilment, which account
for over 60% of the target fulfilment scenarios. In contrast, higher
per-capita GDP growth scenarios only account for 36.36% of all
the target fulfilment scenarios.
4. Conclusions
To examine the low-carbon development potential of the
region, an integrated analysis of status, key factors, and potential
was performed based on regional conditions. The status analysis
evaluated five economic sectors. The factor analysis identified
key factors that influenced CO2 emissions using the LMDI decom-
position method. The potential analysis incorporated energy struc-
ture, industrial structure, and technology advancement into a
STIRPAT model based on the identified key factors to predict
potential future CO2 emissions. The case of Chongqing is analysed
and highlighted as an example. The results indicate a relatively
high possibility, more than 68%, that Chongqing will achieve its
carbon intensity reduction targets established for 2020; however,
1352 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354

there remain many challenges before the achievement of its
low-carbon development goals that should not be underestimated.
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the Major Research Program (A),
Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of
Sciences (Y201131Z03), the Strategic Priority Research Program,
Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05140108), Project Supported
by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71101137)
and Project Supported by China’s Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM) Fund of National Development and Reform Commission
(2013091).
Q1: During the ‘‘11th Five-Year’’, the average annual growth rate of
the gross regional product (GRP) in Chongqing is 14.9%. According
to the ‘‘12th Five-Year’’ Economic and Social Development Plan
(hereinafter referred to as Chongqing’s ‘‘12th Five-Year’’ Plan)
which has clarified the economic and social development goals in
Chongqing from 2011 to 2015, the GRP in Chongqing will be more
than 1.5 trillion RMB by 2015, doubled that in 2010, with an aver-
age annual growth rate of 12.5% from 2010 to 2015. Based on this,
what do you think is the average annual growth rate of GRP in
Chongqing in the future ‘‘13th Five-Year’’?
A. 10% B. 8% C. 6% D. Other___

Appendix A
(See Table A1).
Appendix B. Synthesis of the questionnaire
The Questionnaire of Low-carbon Economy Development in
Chongqing
Dear leaders and experts:
Thank you for your support of our field research and we are
appreciated for your kindly participation in completing this
Questionnaire.
This is a brief survey prepared by XXX research group, aimed at
having a deep knowledge of the status and trends of low-carbon
development in Chongqing. All information gathered is solely for
research purposes and will be treated statistically, without dissem-
ination of your specific data or answers. The result of the statistical
evaluation, the analysis and conclusions will be published. Please
carefully read each question and answer them objectively.
Thanks again for your cooperation and the time you devote to
this questionnaire.
No. _______________ Date_______________________.
Department/Expert Investigated ___________________.
Table A1
Data sources.
Q2: During the ‘‘11th Five-Year’’, the average annual growth rate of
per capita GRP in Chongqing is 14.1%. According to Chongqing’s
‘‘12th Five-Year’’ Plan, the average annual growth rate of per capita
GRP during the ‘‘12th Five-Year’’ will reach 13.1%. So based on your
judgment on future economic development trend, what is the aver-
age annual growth rate of per capita GRP during the ‘‘13th
Five-Year’’ in Chongqing?
A. 12% B. 10% C. 8% D. Other___
Q3: At present, there still exists numerous problems and challenges
in the development of Chongqing, such as the lower level and qual-
ity of economic development, the unreasonable industrial structure
(the proportion of the output value for primary industry, secondary
industry and tertiary industry in 2010 is 8.6%, 55% and 36.4%
respectively.), the inadequate development of modern service
industry and strategic emerging industries, etc. Based on this,
Chongqing municipal government makes it clear in its ‘‘12th
Five-Year’’ Plan to strengthen agriculture as the foundation,
enhance the core competitiveness of manufacturing, cultivate
strategic emerging industries, accelerate the development of mod-
ern service industry and promote the transformation of economic
development mode. Based on this, what do you think the future
industrial structure will be? Please complete the table below:

Variable Definition Source Industry type The The proportion of

Eij Consumption of energy j by sector i, tons China Energy Statistical
proportion the output value
Yearbook 2000–2012 of the output at the end of ‘‘13th
EF j Carbon emission factor of energy j Guidelines on Provincial value at the Five-Year’’ (%)
Greenhouse Gas end of ‘‘12th
Inventories
Five-Year’’ (%)
Yi Output value of sector i of the region Chongqing Statistical
Yearbook 2000–2012 Primary industry
P Population of the region Chongqing Statistical Secondary industry
Yearbook 2000–2012
VN Number of transport vehicles of the Chongqing Statistical
Tertiary industry
region Yearbook 2000–2012
FN Number of households in the region Chongqing Statistical
Yearbook 2000–2012 Q4: During the ‘‘11th Five-Year’’, the energy consumption in
PCG Per-capita GDP of the region Chongqing Statistical
Yearbook 2000–2012
Chongqing has increased year by year, from 42 Mtce in 2006 to
Y Gross regional product in Chongqing (in ‘‘Twelfth Five-Year’’ & 58.8 Mtce in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 8.2%.
2020) Field investigation With further development of economy and improvement of urban-
FS Percentage of sector-specific energy ‘‘Twelfth Five-Year’’ & ization, there will be a rapid increase in energy demand during
consumption in the total energy Field investigation
‘‘12th Five-Year’’ in Chongqing. According to Chongqing’s ‘‘12th
consumption of the region (in 2020)
ES Share of the output value by sector in ‘‘Twelfth Five-Year’’ & Five-Year’’ Energy Plan which takes energy conservation and the
the total output value of the region (in Field investigation transformation of economic development mode into consideration,
2020) it is expected that the total energy demand in 2015 will be approx-
f Technical progress rate (in 2020) ‘‘Twelfth Five-Year’’ & imate 100 Mtce under the rapid economic development scenario. In
Field investigation
P Population of the region (in 2020) GM(1, 1) model
this base, what do you think the amount of total energy demand
will be?
 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354 1353

Five-Year’’. According to the Program, the carbon intensity in

The total amount of energy demand in 2015 (Mtce):
A. 9000 B. 9500 C. 10,000 D. 11,000 E. Other______
The total amount of energy demand in 2020 (Mtce):
A. 11,000 B. 12,000 C. 13,000 D. 14,000 E. Other______
Q5: Among the total final energy consumption in Chongqing, the
proportion of coal, petroleum, natural gas and electric power in
2010 is 63.5%, 13.6%, 9.3% and 13.5% respectively. During the
‘‘12th Five-Year’’, in the light of the binding index of total energy
consumption assigned by the national central government,
Chongqing municipal government has been taking further steps to
optimize energy consumption structure, reduce the consumption
of coal and increase the proportion of clean energy and renewable
energy consumption. In 2012, the proportion of coal, petroleum,
natural gas and electric power in the total final energy consumption
is 59.2%, 14.1%, 14.2% and 12.5% respectively. Based on this,
please make a reasonable prediction of the future proportion of
energy consumption structure in Chongqing and complete the table
below:
Chongqing should decline no less than 17% cumulatively during
the ‘‘12th Five-Year’’. Based on the current progress, please answer
the following questions:
h Could Chongqing reach the aggregate carbon intensity
reduction target set by the State Council during the
‘‘12th Five-Year’’? Please give the specific cumulative
reduction rate of carbon intensity during the ‘‘12th
Five-Year’’.
A. Yes, it could, the energy intensity will cumulatively
decline (%)
B. No, it couldn’t, the energy intensity will cumulatively
decline (%)
h During the ‘‘13th Five-Year’’, how much will the carbon
intensity decline cumulatively?
A. 15% B. 20% C. 25% D. Other__________.

Energy type The proportion of the The proportion of the Thank you for your time and have a nice day!
energy consumption energy consumption
at the end of ‘‘12th at the end of ‘‘12th
Appendix C
Five-Year’’ (%) Five-Year’’ (%)
Coal (See Table C1).
Petroleum
Natural gas
Electric power

Table C1
Overview of the reasonable scenarios analysed in the paper.
Q6: Under the rapid economy growth, the energy consumption per
Scenario Average annual Proportion of the Proportion of Technical
unit GRP (Energy intensity) in Chongqing has declined 20.9% cumu-
growth rate of per secondary coal progress
latively during the ‘‘11th Five-Year’’, from 1.425 tce/104 RMB in capita GDP (2012– industry output consumption rate (from
2005 to 1.127 tce/104 RMB in 2010, and has fully completed the 2020) (%) value in 2020 (%) in 2020 (%) 2012) (%)
binding target set by Chongqing municipal government in its 1 7.70 49.50 60.50 40.00
‘‘11th Five-Year’’ Energy Plan that the energy consumption per unit 2 7.70 49.50 60.50 32.00
GRP in Chongqing should decline no less than 20% cumulatively. 3 7.40 49.50 60.50 40.00
According to the ‘‘12th Five-Year’’ Energy Plan, Chongqing munici- 4 7.40 49.50 60.50 32.00
5 7.70 44.50 60.50 40.00
pal government take 15% as the binding target for Energy intensity
6 7.70 44.50 60.50 32.00
decline during the ‘‘12th Five-Year’’. Then based on this, please 7 7.40 44.50 60.50 40.00
answer the following questions: 8 7.40 44.50 60.50 32.00
9 7.40 44.50 60.50 24.00
10 7.70 49.50 55.00 40.00
h According to the current development trend, could
11 7.70 49.50 55.00 32.00
Chongqing reach the binding target of Energy intensity 12 7.40 49.50 55.00 40.00
set by its municipal government during the ‘‘12th 13 7.40 49.50 55.00 32.00
Five-Year’’? Please give the specific cumulative 14 7.70 44.50 55.00 40.00
reduction rate of energy intensity during the ‘‘12th 15 7.70 44.50 55.00 32.00
16 7.40 44.50 55.00 40.00
Five-Year’’. 17 7.40 44.50 55.00 32.00
A. Yes, it could, the energy intensity will cumulatively 18 7.40 44.50 55.00 24.00
decline (%)_____________________ 19 7.10 44.50 55.00 32.00
B. No, it couldn’t, the energy intensity will cumulatively 20 7.10 44.50 55.00 24.00
21 7.40 39.50 55.00 32.00
decline (%)___________________
22 7.40 39.50 55.00 24.00
h How about the ‘‘13th Five-Year’’? How much will the 23 7.10 39.50 55.00 32.00
energy intensity decline cumulatively during the ‘‘13th 24 7.10 39.50 55.00 24.00
Five-Year’’? 25 7.40 44.50 50.00 40.00
A. 10% B. 12% C. 14% D. Other ______________. 26 7.40 44.50 50.00 32.00
27 7.40 44.50 50.00 24.00
28 7.10 44.50 50.00 32.00
29 7.10 44.50 50.00 24.00
Q7: In December, 2011, the State Council issued the ‘‘’12th 30 7.40 39.50 50.00 32.00
Five-Year’ work program to control GHG emission’’ (hereinafter 31 7.40 39.50 50.00 24.00
32 7.10 39.50 50.00 32.00
referred to as the Program) which has assigned different aggregate 33 7.10 39.50 50.00 24.00
carbon intensity reduction target to 31 provinces during the ‘‘12th
1354 X. Tan et al. / Applied Energy 162 (2016) 1345–1354

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