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Weekly Market Newsletter

08 - 15 January 2021

Key steel at products

Source: dashboard.fastmarkets.com/m/00000020-0000-4000-8000-000000000000

Flat product news

HRC index hits all-time high of $58/cwt
By Patrick Fitzgerald - Thursday 14 January
Hot-rolled coil prices in the United States have reached their highest level
in at least 60 years, Fastmarkets has learned.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US was calculated at
$58 per hundredweight ($1,160 per short ton) on Thursday January 14, up by
6.7% from $54.38 per cwt on Wednesday January 13 and an increase of 7.1%
from $54.17 per cwt one week earlier on January 7.
Inputs were received in a range of $52.00-67.50 per cwt across all three sub-
indices - representing con rmed deals, fresh mill o ers and broader
assessments of spot market pricing levels. Non-transactional inputs at the
low and high ends of that range were automatically discarded by the index’s
outlier lter. Non-transactional inputs were carried over within the producer
and distributor sub-indices at the assessor’s discretion to minimize day-to-
day volatility.
Heard in the market
The current index has blown past the previous high-water mark of $56.25 per
cwt logged in May 2008. The price now stands at its highest level ever
recorded since Fastmarkets started covering this segment of the domestic
steel market in 1960.
Hot-rolled lead times have extended out to late March and into April,
according to market participants. Key dynamics contributing to HRC's bull
run remain: soaring raw material costs, an unprecedented supply squeeze,
low service center inventories, decent demand and a lack of imports. But with
HRC prices at a historic high, some market participants questioned when
momentum may shift.
HRC index dips, but no signs of
wavering yet
By Grace Lavigne Asenov - Wednesday 13 January
Hot-rolled coil prices in the United States dipped on Wednesday but held
above the $54-per-hundredweight level due to ongoing tight supply.
Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US was calculated at
$54.38 per cwt ($1,087.60 per short ton) on Wednesday January 13, down by
2.4% from $55.72 per cwt a day earlier but up by 5.5% from $51.54 per cwt
on January 6.
Inputs were collected in a range of $52-58 per cwt across all three sub-
indices, with the low end representing o ers from mills and reported by mills
and buyers, and the high end representing deals heard.
Heard in the market
Demand is strong and customers are willing to pay prevailing market prices to
secure tons, market participants said. Some end users reportedly are buying
tons for March production without knowing the price, they said.
Some mills are short on slab supply, which is delaying their ability to ll spot
ton orders, some sources said. But others noted that mills now seem to be
catching up on open orders, which could loosen up supply in the coming
weeks.
Others warned that credit could become an issue for some buyers with prices
at these elevated levels, limiting their ability to buy material. Buyers on the
sidelines could weaken prices, but it also is limiting their ability to maintain or
increase inventory levels, which could sustain this price rally longer since
stocks still remain low, they said.

Some sources speculated that hot-band prices may hit a ceiling in the next
month or two. They noted that supply may increase then, as a result of
rerollers producing coil from quota-released slab imports, Big River Steel’s
Phase 2 expansion coming online, and the arrival of competitively priced at-
rolled steel from overseas producers.
Given recent industry consolidation - namely Cleveland-Cli s' acquisition of
ArcelorMittal USA and AK Steel, and U.S. Steel Corp’s purchase of Big River
Steel - prices might never be as low as they once were, some sources noted.
This price rally will fall apart at some point, but won't dip as low as in past
crashes, they added.

Quotes of the day Quote of the day

“Imports are now more attractive even with the longer lead times, and in
some cases the lead time is not much longer than domestic,” a Midwest
service center source said.
“Service center inventories are not good at all, honestly. Everyone in the South
is calling each other trying to spot buy coils - every day,” a consumer source
said. “I’m feeling we may not reach the top till April, May now. Demand is so
strong. [We] need more supply, and relief isn’t coming anytime soon.”
“We had a customer who wanted four truckloads, but we’d only sell two
because we couldn’t replace it in a timely manner and we’d have to replace it
for $1,200 [per ton, or $60 per cwt] or above,” a midwestern distributor
source said.
Explore the six macroeconomic and steel-speci c dynamics set to rebalance
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and Scrap: Six Key Forces in 2021 today.

Key at products
Symbol Description Date Price +/-

MB-STE-0028 Steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe, €/tonne 15 Jan 2021 716 1.54%

MB-STE-0047 Steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr main port Southern Europe, €/tonne 13 Jan 2021 670 - 705 3.77%

MB-STE-0107 Steel hot-rolled coil export, fob main port Turkey, $/tonne 15 Jan 2021 790 - 805 -2.15%

MB-STE-0014 Steel hot-rolled coil export, fob Black Sea, CIS, $/tonne 11 Jan 2021 785 - 790 3.96%

This material is provided by Euromoney Global Limited (a company registered in England and Wales under number 142215) doing business as Fastmarkets MB and
Fastmarkets IM, and Metal Bulletin Holdings LLC doing business as Fastmarkets AMM, collectively referred to in the material as ‘Fastmarkets’.
It is provided to you subject to your compliance with the terms of your license agreement with Fastmarkets, in addition to the Fastmarkets Copyright Notice and Disclaimer.
If you need additional access please contact hello@fastmarkets.com © Fastmarkets 2021
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Key steel at products Weekly Market Newsletter 08 - 15 January 2021 2

Symbol Description Date Price +/-

MB-STE-0144 Steel hot-rolled coil index export, fob main port China, $/tonne 15 Jan 2021 647.79 0.01%

MB-STE-0139 Steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr Vietnam, $/tonne 15 Jan 2021 670 - 680 -1.46%

MB-STE-0184 Steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US, $/cwt 15 Jan 2021 56.92 -1.86%

MB-STE-0153 Steel cold-rolled coil domestic, delivered Eastern China domestic, yuan/tonne 15 Jan 2021 5350 - 5450 -4.00%

MB-STE-0026 Steel cold-rolled coil domestic, exw Northern Europe, €/tonne 13 Jan 2021 780 - 800 10.49%

MB-STE-0185 Steel cold-rolled coil, fob mill US, $/cwt 14 Jan 2021 63 7.69%

MB-STE-0172 Steel cut-to-length plate carbon grade, fob mill US, $/cwt 15 Jan 2021 47 0.00%

MB-STE-0034 Steel domestic plate 8-40mm, exw Northern Europe, €/tonne 13 Jan 2021 590 - 620 -0.82%

MB-STE-0155 Steel plate domestic, delivered whs Eastern China, yuan/tonne 15 Jan 2021 4520 - 4550 -2.26%

MB-STE-0883 Steel hot-dipped galvanized coil (hot-rolled base), fob mill US, $/cwt 14 Jan 2021 63 6.78%

MB-STE-0186 Steel hot-dipped galvanized coil (cold-rolled base), fob mill US, $/cwt 14 Jan 2021 63 6.78%

MB-STE-0021 Steel hot-dipped galvanized coil domestic, ex-whs Eastern China, yuan/tonne 15 Jan 2021 6000 - 6150 -3.65%

MB-STE-0030 Steel hot-dipped galvanized coil domestic, exw Northern Europe, €/tonne 13 Jan 2021 800 - 830 10.14%

MB-STE-0187 Steel coil Galvalume, fob mill US, $/cwt 15 Dec 2020 48 9.09%

MB-STE-0850 Steel coil Galvalume import, cfr main ports South America, $/tonne 15 Jan 2021 900 - 920 -2.67%

This material is provided by Euromoney Global Limited (a company registered in England and Wales under number 142215) doing business as Fastmarkets MB and
Fastmarkets IM, and Metal Bulletin Holdings LLC doing business as Fastmarkets AMM, collectively referred to in the material as ‘Fastmarkets’.
It is provided to you subject to your compliance with the terms of your license agreement with Fastmarkets, in addition to the Fastmarkets Copyright Notice and Disclaimer.
If you need additional access please contact hello@fastmarkets.com © Fastmarkets 2021