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1) Meaning:
Forecast is becoming the sign of survival and the language of business. All requirements of the
business sector need the technique of accurate and practical reading into the future. Forecasts are,
therefore, very essential requirement for the survival of business. Management requires forecasting
information when making a wide range of decisions.
In the words of Cundiff and Still, “Demand forecasting is an estimate of sales during a specified
future period which is tied to a proposed marketing plan and which assumes a particular set of
uncontrollable and competitive forces”. Therefore, demand forecasting is a projection of firm’s
expected level of sales based on a chosen marketing plan and environment.
2) Types of Forecasting:
Forecasts can be broadly classified into:
(i) Passive Forecast: Under passive forecast prediction about future is based on the assumption
that the firm does not change the course of its action.
(ii) Active Forecast: Under active forecast, prediction is done under the condition of likely future
changes in the actions by the firms.
From the view point of ‘time span’, forecasting may be classified into two, viz.:
(i) Short term demand forecasting: In a short run forecast, seasonal patterns are of much
importance. It may cover a period of three months, six months or one year. It is one which provides
information for tactical decisions.
Which period is chosen depends upon the nature of business. Such a forecast helps in preparing
suitable sales policy.
(ii) Long term demand forecasting: In a short run forecast, seasonal patterns are of much
importance. It may cover a period of three months, six months or one year. It is one which provides
information for tactical decisions.
Which period is chosen depends upon the nature of business. Such a forecast helps in preparing
suitable sales policy. Long term forecasts are helpful in suitable capital planning. It is one which
provides information for major strategic decisions. It helps in saving the wastages in material, man
hours, machine time and capacity. Planning of a new unit must start with an analysis of the long
term demand potential of the products of the firm.
There are basically two types of forecast, viz.:
(i) External or national group of forecast: External forecast deals with trends in general business.
It is usually prepared by a company’s research wing or by outside consultants.
(ii) Internal or company group forecast: Internal forecast includes all those that are related to
the operation of a particular enterprise such as sales group, production group, and financial group.
The structure of internal forecast includes forecast of annual sales, forecast of products cost,
forecast of operating profit, forecast of taxable income, forecast of cash resources, forecast of the
number of employees, etc.
At different levels forecasting may be classified into:
(i) Macro-level forecasting:
Macro-level forecasting: It is concerned with business conditions over the whole economy. It is
measured by an appropriate index of industrial production, national income or expenditure.
(ii) Industry- level forecasting,
Industry-level forecasting is prepared by different trade associations.
This is based on survey of consumers’ intention and analysis of statistical trends.