Probability

2024-1

Preparcial
February 2024

General description
◦ Identifies the counting technique to be applied in the solution of a given problem.
◦ Applies the laws of probability.
◦ Solves problems using conditional probability.
◦ Solves problems using Bayes’Theorem and total probability.

1. If repetitions are not permitted,

a) How many three digit numbers can be formed from the six digits: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7 and 9 ?
b) How many of these are less than 400?
c) How many are even?
d ) How many are odd?
e) How many are multiples of 5 ?

2. a) In how many ways can 6 people be lined up to get on a bus?

b) If 3 specific persons, among 6, insist on following each other, how many ways are possible?
c) If 2 specific persons, among 6, refuse to follow each other, how many ways are possible?

3. How many ways can four boys and four girls sit in a row if the boys and girls must sit
alternately? How many if the boys sit together and the girls sit together, how many if only
the girls sit together?

4. How many ways are there that no two students will have the same birth date in a class of size
60?

5. A group of 5 Germans, 6 English, 4 Japanese and 6 Colombians are to be placed at a round

table. How many ways can the placement be done, how many if the people are of the same
nationality? How many if the people of the same nationality are to be placed together? How
many if the Colombians are to be placed together?

6. Determine whether the following propositions are true or false. Briefly justify the answer.

a) If P (A) = 0 then A = ∅
b) If P (A) = P (B) = 0 then P (A ∪ B) = 0.
1 1 1 5
c) If P (A) = and P (B) = then ≤ P (A ∪ B) ≤
2 3 2 6
d ) P (A M B) = P (A) + P (B) − 2P (A ∩ B)

Página 1 de 4
 Probability
2024-1

7. There are two ballot boxes A and B. Ballot box A contains 7 red balls and 5 white balls and
box B contains 2 red balls and 4 white balls. An ordinary die is die is thrown. If you get a 3
or a 6 you take a ball from B and place it in A and then take a ball from B and place it in A
and then take a ball from A and place it in A. A and then a ball from A is taken; if another
number is rolled, a ball from A is taken and placed in A and then a ball from A is taken. a
ball from A is taken and placed in B and then a ball from B is drawn. what is the probability
that both balls drawn are red?

8. Let A and B events with P (A) > 0. Prove that

P (A ∩ B|A ∪ B) ≤ P (A ∪ B|A)

9. Leat A, B and C independent events. Show that:

a) A and (B ∪ C) are independent.

b) A and (B − C) are independent.

10. a) Suppose that A and B are independent events such that the probability of neither hap-
pening is a and the probability of B is b. Show that
1−a−b
P (A) =
1−b

b) If A and B are mutually exclusive events and P (B) > 0, show that.

P (A)
P (A | A ∪ B) =
P (A) + P (B)

11. A certain form of cancer is known to be found in women over 60 with probability 0.07. A
blood test exists for the detection of the disease, but the test is not infallible. In fact, it is
known that 10 % of the time the test gives a false negative (i.e., the test incorrectly gives a
negative result) and 5 % of the time the test gives a false positive (i.e., incorrectly gives a
positive result). If a woman over 60 is known to have taken the test and received a favorable
(i.e., negative) result, what is the probability that she has the disease?

12. Males and females are observed to react differently to a given set of circumstances. It has
been observed that 70 % of the females react positively to these circumstances, whereas only
40 % of males react positively. A group of 20 people, 15 female and 5 male, was subjected
to these circumstances, and the subjects were asked to describe their reactions on a written
questionnaire. A response picked at random from the 20 was negative. What is the probability
that it was that of a male?

13. An urn contains 3 red marbles and 7 white marbles. A marble is drawn from the urn and a
marble of the other color is then put into the urn. A second marble is drawn from the urn.

a) Find the probability that the second marble is red.

b) If both marbles were of the same color, what is the probability that they were both
white?
Página 2 de 4
 Probability
2024-1

14. Of the students at a university in Bogotá, 10 % have vision problems, 12 % have orthodon-
tic treatment, and 4 % have both vision problems and orthodontic treatment. What is the
probability of having orthodontic treatment if you have vision problems?

15. Determine whether the following propositions are true or false. If true, prove it otherwise
justify why it is false.

a) Let A and B be events having positive probability. If A and B are mutually exclusive,
then they are independent.
b) Let A, B and C be events. If A is independent of B, and A is independent of C, and B
and C are mutually exclusive, then A is independent of B ∪ C.

16. If P (A) > 0, P (B) > 0, P (A) < P (A | B) then P (B) < P (B | A)

17. A study of Georgia residents suggests that those who worked in shipyards duringWorldWar II
were subjected to a significantly higher risk of lung cancer (Wall Street Journal, September 21,
1978). It was found that approximately 22 % of those persons who had lung cancer worked at
some prior time in a shipyard. In contrast, only 14 % of those who had no lung cancer worked
at some prior time in a shipyard. Suppose that the proportion of all Georgians living during
World War II who have or will have contracted lung cancer is 0.04 %. Find the percentage of
Georgians living during the same period who will contract (or have contracted) lung cancer,
given that they have at some prior time worked in a shipyard.

18. *Suppose that two balanced dice are tossed repeatedly and the sum of the two uppermost
faces is determined on each toss. What is the probability that we obtain

a) a sum of 3 before we obtain a sum of 7?

b) a sum of 4 before we obtain a sum of 7?

19. Through a survey it was possible to establish the following: ”90 % of Bogota’s families own a
radio and television. 90 % of Bogota’s families own a radio and a television. 8 % of Bogota’s
families own a radio but do not own a television. 2 % of Bogota households own a television
set but do not own a radio. 95 % of Bogota households that own a radio and television set
know who the mayor of the city is. who the mayor of the city is. 80 % of Bogota households
that own a radio but not a television set know who the mayor of the city is. 1.1 % of Bogota
households that own a television but no radio, do not know who the mayor of the city is.
A Bogota family is chosen at random. Let them be T:= The family has a television. R:= The
family has a radio. B:= The family knows who is the mayor of the city.

a) What is the probability that the family has a radio or television?

b) What is the probability that the family has a radio and knows who the mayor is?

20. A personnel director has two lists of applicants for jobs. List 1 contains the names of five
women and two men, whereas list 2 contains the names of two women and six men. A name
is randomly selected from list 1 and added to list 2. A name is then randomly selected from
the augmented list 2. Given that the name selected is that of a man, what is the probability
that a woman’s name was originally selected from list 1?
Página 3 de 4
 Probability
2024-1

21. Let A, B and C events such that P (A) > 0 and P (A ∩ C) > 0, show that

P (B ∩ C | A) = P (B | A ∩ C)P (C | A)

22. Let A and B events, P (A) > 0, Show that P (B | A) satisfies the three axioms of probability.

23. Three teenagers want to enter a movie for people over 18 years old. To verify their age, the
ticket clerk asks them for their identity documents. The youngsters hand it over and the clerk,
after checking them and denying them entry, gives it back to them at random. Calculate the
probability that none of the young people receive their own document.

24. A random number N of dice is thrown. Let Ai be the event that N = i, and assume that
P (Ai ) = 2−i , i ≥ 1. The sum of the scores is S. Find the probability that N = 2 given S = 4.

25. A plane is missing and it is presumed that it was equally likely to have gone down in any
of three possible regions. Let 1 − αi denote the probability the plane will be found upon a
search of the ith region when the plane is, in fact, in that region, i = 1, 2, 3. (The constants
αi are called overlook probabilities because they represent the probability of overlooking the
plane; they are generally attributable to the geographical and environmental conditions of the
regions.) What is the conditional probability that the plane is in the ith region, given that a
search of region 1 is unsuccessful, i = 1, 2, 3?

26. Five identical bowls are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Bowl i contains i white and 5 − i black balls,
with i = 1, 2, . . . , 5. A bowl is randomly selected and two balls are randomly selected (without
replacement) from the contents of the bowl.

a) What is the probability that both balls selected are white?

b) Given that both balls selected are white, what is the probability that bowl 3 was selected?

Respuestas a ejercicios prácticos

1. a) 120 5. a) 20!
b) 40 b) 8957952000
c) 40 c) 15!6!
d ) 80 7. 0.23504
e) 20
11. 0.00786
2. a) 720
12. 0.4
b) 144
c) 480 13. a) 0.34
b) 0.88
3. a) 2880
b) 5760 14. 0.33

c) 17280 17. 0.063 %

4. 365 P60 19. a) 0.1632

Página 4 de 4
 Probability
2024-1

b) 0.8748 25. α1 /(α1 + 2)

20. 15/22
23. 0.333 26. a) 2/5,

24. 0.197 b) 3/20

Página 5 de 4