Executive summary

The purpose of this report is to critically evaluate existing problems in WestConnex project and
propose a change to solve them.
For justification the change and root cause analysis were used mind mapping and fishbone
diagram methods. Deming cycle was advised to maintain the quality of the traffic prediction
during project execution. On a next step, analysis of the impact on project constraints was
performed. For performing Integrated Change Control process was proposed to follow flowchart
from Wysocki’s book. Change control process description contains responsibilities of involved
WestConnex stakeholders. In the report were found two options to satisfy the proposed change.
For each of them, risk analyze with mitigation strategies were suggested, based on risk values,
the best option was chosen. During the report were identified Integrated Change Control
Complexities and filled in a change request form.
The report recommends that for WestConnex project should be found a new consultant firm with
up-to-date traffic and demand modelling to solve the list of appeared issues.

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Table of Contents
Executive summary........................................................................................................................2
1. Introduction................................................................................................................................4
2 Change identification..................................................................................................................5
3 Change justification by identification the root cause................................................................6
4 Impact analysis of the proposed solution on the scope, time, cost and quality of the project. .8
5 Tools and techniques used to manage the change.....................................................................9
6 Processes involved in submitting a change request and responsibilities................................10
7 Options to satisfy the proposed change and any risks associated with them..........................11
8 Change request form.................................................................................................................12
9 Conclusion.................................................................................................................................12
References.....................................................................................................................................13
Appendix.......................................................................................................................................15

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1. Introduction
WestConnex project is a major urban motorway scheme in Sydney; it is 30 kilometres of road
linking Sydney’s west and south-west with Sydney Airport and the Port Botany precinct
(Torrens, 2023). Project separated into 3 stages, namely M4 East (Stage 1B), New M5 (Stage 2),
M4-M5 Link – Mainline (Stage 3A) and the Rozelle Interchange (Stage 3B) as demonstrated on
Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1. WestConnex concept design plan

Note: From “IWC – WestConnex Stage 3: M4 – M5 Concept Design Plan Review”, by Beca, 2017.

The project supports Sydney’s long-term economic growth, relieves road congestion, and
improves the speed, reliability, safety, creates opportunities for urban renewal, improves
liveability, and public transport, optimises user-pays contributions to support funding (Torrens,
2023).

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This report aims to identify, justify a change required for a project, critically analyses the impact
of it on project constraints. During that, will be explained change control process, applied tools
and techniques to manage change, and offered two solutions to satisfy it.

2 Change identification
Reliable and accurate real-time traffic flow state identification is vital for an intelligent
transportation system (ITS). This identification is a prerequisite for alleviating traffic congestion
and improving highway operation efficiency (Wang, 2020, p. 212623). It makes the accuracy of
traffic forecasts to be crucial in determining the success of the WestConnex tollway. Despite
undertaken extensive traffic modelling for the project, results of the it are not reliable (Torrens,
2023; West Connex Action Group, n.d.).
West Connex Action Group (n.d.) claims that flaws and optimistic assumptions in the traffic
modelling will make toll revenue significantly lower than forecast. Low toll revenue will lead to
the risk of losing subcontractor and to a bankruptcy, which happened on The Cross City tunnel
project in Sydney (Bliemer, 2015). The consequence can be a rise in the cost of utilizing the
tollway. The cost will not be affordable for many residents, particularly when high parking and
vehicle running costs are added to the equation (West Connex Action Group, n.d.). Such
inaccurate traffic model puts under the high-risk success of future stages of the WestConnex
scheme, due to the likely financial failure of the preceding stages (West Connex Action Group,
n.d.). Also, success of other tollway projects depends on traffic from WestConnex.
Mistakes in representation of traffic flow dynamics results in incorrect Environmental Impact
Statement (EIS), which shown in poor management of air quality and noise near the construction
(West Connex Action Group, n.d.). High level of petrochemical exhaust emissions threats to
people’s health. Some part of affected territory based on accurate prediction could be excluded
from the initial project plan to preserve local houses and surrounded flora and fauna.
Errors in travel demand model and traffic model causes incorrect number of total cars from each
origin to each destination and wrong number of cars, which use each specific road segment,
taking existing and newly proposed road infrastructure into account (Bliemer, 2015).
This issue brings about project budget changes and dissatisfaction from local communities.

5
Mind mapping technique was used to consolidate ideas into a single map to depicted gathered
information, dependencies and relationships (Torrens University Australia Slides, 2023). Mind
map demonstrates the wide range of consequences of inaccurate traffic modelling in Figure 2.1.

Figure 2.1. Mind map with problem consequences.

Therefore, the proposed change: switching into modern and accurate traffic and demand
modelling is essential for meeting project objective and success.

3 Change justification by identification of the root cause

Fishbone diagram is a tool used to identify the root cause of problems, which represents the
effect and the factors or causes influencing it (Shinde et al., 2018, p. 652). For change
justification is applied simplified version of Ishikawa diagram, which was initially created for
usage on manufacturing projects.

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Figure 3.1. exhibits sub-causes of each cause in the diagram. Table 3.1. contains collected
evidence for each of the factor from Fishbone diagram. Results from applied quality
management tools prove the importance of proposed change.

Figure 3.1. Fishbone diagram.

# Factors
1 Errors in model
Causes
Since the future is uncertain, demand model inputs
are also uncertain, hence travel demand is uncertain.
Instead of choosing conservative inputs, often
optimistic values are used because of pressures from
governments, banks and investors (Bliemer, 2015).
Model emulates ideal result of cars using the road
without queues or problems during movement. This
leads to severe over-predictions of the amount of
traffic that could use each road (Bliemer, 2015).
A traffic flow of 120,000 vehicles per day would
therefore mean optimal flow conditions from 8am to

7

2 Mathematical model is out of date from the 1950s, which are not suitable for our
3 Model is not transparent
4 Previously failed predictions
Table 3.1. Factors and cause of the inaccurate traffic prediction.
8
6pm. However, such optimal conditions are very
unlikely, as on-ramps onto the motorway disturb
traffic, leading to traffic breakdown and significantly
lower traffic flows (Bliemer, 2015).
Traffic model is based on mathematical methods
heavily congested roads (Bliemer, 2015).
Government of New South Wales refused to release
the business case for WestConnex under freedom of
information (Winestock, 2014).
The modelling is not publicly available because it is
commercial-in-confidence (Bliemer, 2015).
Modelling has failed for some past projects leading
to business failure (West Connex Action Group,
n.d.).
The business case for the $13 billion WestConnex
freeway in Sydney relies on traffic projections from
two companies that supplied forecasts for toll roads
in Brisbane that ended in multibillion-dollar failures.
(Winestock, 2014).
Australia has a history of over-predicting the usage
of toll roads. For example, the patronage of the
Sydney Cross City tunnel was estimated to be almost
90,000 cars. The actual number of cars using this
tunnel was only 34,000 per day. Toll revenues were
therefore much lower than predicted, leading to a
bankruptcy after 16 months (Bliemer, 2015).
4 Impact analysis of the proposed solution on the scope, time, cost and
quality of the project
Changing of predicted model will increase quality by providing more accurate data for road
planning. According to Iron Triangle concept, it leads to updates of scope, time and cost
(Wysocki, 2019, p.11).
Amount of these updates depends on car numbers, predicted by an accurate model. In case of
reducing of the initial numbers of expected vehicles, WestConnex tollway will need to have
fewer lanes, it will require less budget and project can be finished earlier. Based on collected
evidence this scenario is more possible and will positively influence on project objectives. In
case of increasing of the initial number of expected vehicles, WestConnex tollway will need to
add more lanes, which will influence the project budget and schedule respectively.
To maintain accurate predicted numbers for traffic and demand, emulation of the traffic should
be conducted periodically and should take into an account real traffic from finished project
stages. This way of work allows to apply such quality tool as Deming cycle, namely the PDCA
(Plan-Do-Check- Adjust/Act) method. Figure 4.1. shows the stages in the PDCA cycle:
developing a plan (plan); carrying out a plan (do); checking the results achieved (check); and
taking action (action) (Nurzaki, 2021, p. 2). Additional periodical traffic emulation will increase
project expenses and schedule duration, but based on the outcomes will help to keep scope under
control and avoid unnecessary expenses and wasting of the time.

Figure 4.1. The Deming cycle.

Note: From “Root cause analysis: a step-by-step guide to using the right tool at the right time.”, by
Barsalou, 2014.

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5 Tools and techniques used to manage the change
Any change to the project management plan should go through the organization’s change control
process via a change request (PMI, 2017, p. 105). In report is proposed to follow a change
control process by Wysocki, which demonstrated on Figure 5.1. In this process, anyone can
submit change request form, then Project Manager reviews it and requests change request impact
study from The Project Team (Wysocki, 2019, p. 288).
At the next step, Change Control Board (CCB) is involved. It is a formally chartered group
responsible for reviewing, evaluating, approving, delaying, or rejecting changes to the project,
and for recording and communicating such decisions (PMI, 2021, p. 236). The project manager
collaborates with the CCB, ensuring approved changes are incorporated into relevant project
planning documents, the product backlog, and project scope, while also effectively
communicating the changes to the relevant stakeholders (PMI, 2021, p. 77). This way of work
helps to avoid scope creep.

Figure 5.1. A typical change control process

Note: From “Effective Project Management: Traditional, Agile, Extreme, Hybrid”, by Wysocki,
2019.

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 6 Processes involved in submitting a change request and responsibilities
Every proposed change request should go through the “Perform Integrated Change Control”
process. It includes change request review, approving changes and managing changes to
deliverables, project documents and project management plan and communicating the decisions
(PMI, 2017, p. 113). Project manager responsibilities include conducting Perform Integrated
Change Control process for changing traffic and demand modelling.
Proposed change request is created in written form by Project manager and added to change
management system. CCB will review, evaluate, approve, defer, or reject change request (PMI,
2017, p. 115). Customer or sponsor additional approval may be required for this change requests.

7 Options to satisfy the proposed change and any risks associated with
them
This report offers two options to implement the change request. Options contain risks, which
should be taken into consideration and mitigate with a strategy. Table 7.1. gives a comparative
overview of both solutions and main associated risks with qualitative risk analysis based on the
colour scheme from Table 7.2. For each of risk proposed a mitigation strategy. Based on risk
values, solution of choosing a new consultant with a modern prediction model is advised.

Option Solution Associated risk Probability Impact Risk Mitigation strategy

# description value
1 To choose a new Chosen a not 0.6 0.2 Medium Use the weighted scoring model to
consultant with the suitable firm. 0.12 weigh and rank firms by required
modern prediction criteria and make the best selection.
model to perform New predictions (Heldman, 2018).
new traffic and will not be
demand modeling. accurate. Periodically evaluate the actual traffic
demand as the tollway project becomes
operational, compare results with
predicted, and conduct new modeling
for project adjustments.
2 To require current VLC can not 0.7 0.8 Extreme Request VLC to confirm possibility of

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 expert transport enhance model. 0.56 model enhancement.
modelling firm -
Veitch Lister Model Request estimation for model
Consulting (VLC) to enhancement enhancement from VLC.
improve the existing will take too
Zenith traffic model much time. Periodically evaluate the actual traffic
and to perform new demand as the tollway project becomes
traffic and demand New predictions operational, compare results with
modeling (City of will not be predicted, and conduct new modeling
Sydney, 2015, p. 2). accurate. for project adjustments.

Table 7.1. Solution options with associated risks.

Probability Impact
Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Severe
0.05 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8
Almost Certain
Medium High
Expected to occur in most Extreme Extreme Extreme
circumstances (>0.8)
Likely
Reasonable high chance of Medium
Medium High Extreme Extreme
occurring in many circumstances
(0.7 - 0.8)
Possible
Medium
Conceivably occur in some Low Medium High Extreme
circumstances (0.3 - 0.6)
Unlikely
Unlikely to occur in most Low Low Medium Medium High
circumstances (0.02 - 0.5)
Rare
Would occur only in exceptional Low Low Low Medium Medium
circumstances (>0.01)
Table 7.2. Risk probability and impact matrix color scheme.

8 Change request form

The change request form can be found in Appendix.

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9 Conclusion
In conclusion, this report proposed a change request for WestConnex case study. With the help
of the Fishbone diagram and mind mapping quality tools, root causes of the used inaccurate
prediction model were identified and in report was offered the best solution: to choose a new
consultant firm with up-to-date traffic and demand modelling.

13
 References
Barsalou, M. A. (2014). Root cause analysis : a step-by-step guide to using the right tool at the right
time [Figure 4.1.]. CRC Press.
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https://www.innerwest.nsw.gov.au/ArticleDocuments/1627/ATTACHMENT%202%20-%20M4-
M5%20Link%20Concept%20Design%20Plan%20Review%20-%20facilitated%20by
%20Beca.pdf.aspx
Bliemer, M. (2015, March 16). Why fewer drivers are likely to use WestConnex than predicted. The
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westconnex-than-predicted-38286
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