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2. Failure Analysis
i) A system has six main components whose MTBF are 3500 hours, 5000 hours, 2300
hours, 1600 hours, 3200 hours and 4000 hours. Calculate the resulting reliability at
2000 hours of the system if the components were connected a) in series and b) in
parallel. (Assume negative exponential distribution is applicable in this case)
Answer:
Assuming negative exponential distribution, the system mean life or the mean time between
failures (MTBF) is given by:
1
MTBF
i= 1 / MTBF
i.e., 1 = 0.000286 failure/hour
2 = 0.0002 failure/hour
3 = 0.000435 failure/hour
4 = 0.000625 failure/hour
5 = 0.000313 failure/hour
6 = 0.00025 failure/hour
Answer:
Let x = be the event that a breakdown is not repairable
a) then P(x) = P(A).P(x/A)+P(B).P(x/B)+P(C).P(x/C)+P(D).P(x/D)+P(E).P(X/E)
Therefore P(x) = 0.15*0.04+0.25*0.06+0.20*0.02+0.18*0.08+0.22*0.10
P(x) = 0.0614
b) P(B) = P(B).P(x/B)/P(x)
P(B) = 0.25*0.06/0.0614
P(B) = 0.244
iii) Discuss the basic four characteristics of a Weibull distribution under different values
of
iv) Use the Weibull log-log paper distributed and the data shown on table 1 to calculate
the instantaneous failure rate at t=1000 hours of a piece of equipment, whose data is
shown on table 3.
Age at 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
failure
[hours]
Number of 12 14 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 2
failure
Cumulative 12 26 36 44 50 56 60 64 68 70
Failure
Cumulative
Percent
v) Comment on the age of the equipment whose data are shown on table 3
vi) What do you understand by the term attrition failure?
vii) What do you understand by the term instantaneous failure rate?
viii) Weibull distribution function and negative exponential function are among the highly
used distribution functions in failure analysis. At what juncture is Weibull distribution
function equals to the negative exponential function?
ix) Derive the formula to calculate the instantaneous failure rate from the first principle
using Weibull distribution function, and use the formula to calculate the instantaneous
failure rate of a system at 1000 hours after a replacement using the following available
data:
= 2.2, = 10; = 100
3. Reliability Analysis
a) Reliability and Network Analysis
i) Discuss the 4 (four) elements that describe the reliability function
ii) Why do we say the reliability is an intrinsic characteristic of a piece of equipment?
ii) Calculate the reliability of the system shown on figure 1 using the following given data:
R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8
R9 R10 R11
R5
R9
R1
R6
R3 R8
b)
i) Determine the probability that a system will operate for 50 hours without failure if it is
known that the system has a mean life of 100 hours.
Solution
MTBF = 100 => = 1/100 = 0.01
Solution
In this case r = 3, t = 40 hours, n = 10 = 0.01
nt = 10x0.01x40 = 4
From the Poisson chart for r = 3 and nt = 4 we get probability of 3 failures to be 0.4
iii) If 4 of the system in i) are connected in a) series, b) parallel, what will be the resulting
reliability of the system at t=50?
Solution:
a) When connected in series R(50) = exp(-0.01x50x4) = 0.135
n
b) When connected in parallel R(50) = R(t) = 1 - (1 - R)
R(50) = 1 – (1-0.606)4
= 0.976
C) Use the figure below and calculate the reliability of the system if all of the shown
maintenance action were failure based maintenance actions