CETRAN30: Fundamentals of Transportation

Engineering
MODULE 6: TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

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What is an Accident?

▪ An unexpected, unplanned occurrence that may involve injury.

▪ Unpremeditated events resulting in recognizable damage.
▪ Occurrence in a sequence of events, which usually produces unintended injury, death or property
damage.
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Measurement of Problems
1. Mortality
▪ Proportional mortality rate
▪ Number of deaths per million population
▪ Death rate per 1000 registered vehicles per year
▪ Number of accidents or fatalities as a ratio of number of vehicles per km or passengers per km.
▪ Deaths of vehicle occupants per thousand vehicles per year.

2. Morbidity
▪ Serious Injuries
▪ Slight Injuries

3. Disability
▪ Temporary or Permanent
▪ Partial or Total
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Road Accidents
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) indicate that road
traffic deaths increased by 39% from 7,938 deaths in 2011 to 11,096
deaths in 2021. Road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death
among Filipinos 15-29 years old, and a major killer among children. In
2020, the number of deaths dropped to 8,746 deaths, and this is likely
due to the reduced mobility of the population during that year because
of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the number of deaths again
increased to 11,096, coinciding with the end of lockdowns and mobility
restrictions.
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Risk Factors
1. Speed
Pedestrians have a 90% chance of surviving a car crash at 30kph or below.
2. Drunk-Driving
A blood Alcohol Concentration (BAC) of 0.05g/dl or below reduces alcohol-related crashes. Enforcing
sobriety checkpoints and random breath testing can reduce 20% of alcohol-related crashes.
3. Motorcycle Helmets
Reduce the risk of death by 40% and the risk of severe injury by 70%.
4. Seatbelt Restraints
Reduce the risk of fatality among front seat passengers by 40-50%, and rear seat passengers by 25-
75%.
5. Mobile Phone usage
Four times the risk of crash increases.
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Risk Factors
6. Factors influencing exposure to risk
• Rapid motorization
• Demographic factors
• Transport, land use and road network planning
• Increased need for travel
• Choice of less safe forms of travel
7. Risk factors influencing crash involvement
• Speed
• Pedestrians and Cyclists
• Young drivers and riders
• Alcohol
• Medicinal and recreational drugs
• Driver fatigue
• Hand-held cell phones
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Risk Factors
8. Risk Factors Influencing Injury Severity
• Lack of in-vehicle crash protection
• Non-use of crash helmets by two-wheeled vehicle users
• Non-use of seatbelts and child restraints in motor vehicles
• Roadside objects
9. Risk factors influencing post-crash injury outcome
• Pre-hospital factors
• Hospital care factors
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Reasons for more Accidents in Developing Countries
• Large numbers of pedestrians and animals share the common
roadway
• Large number of old, poorly maintained vehicles
• Large number of buses often overloaded
• Large number of motorcycles and other small vehicles
• Low driving standards
• Widespread disregard of traffic rules
• Defective roads, poor street lighting, defective layout of
crossroads and speed breakers
• Unusual behavior of men and animals
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Assessment of Road Safety
The state of road safety of a country or a region is normally gauged by the frequency of accident
occurrence. Key indicators are the number of accidents (fatal, injured, or property damage) and the rates of
accidents. For comparison studies, the rates are normally used instead of the actual numbers.

• Accident per Population

One measure of accident rate is per 100,000 population. For instance, if a town, city, or region has N
accident occurrences in one year and has a population P, then

Ap = 100,000 x N/P
Example 1:
A town has a population of 350,000 in 2005. In the same year, the number of accidents was 620. Determine
the accident rate.
Solution:
Ap = 100,000 x 620/350,000
Ap = 177 accidents per 100,000 population
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• Accident per Registered Vehicles
Another measure of accident rate is per 10,000 registered vehicles. Again, if there are N accidents in one
year and the number of registered vehicles for the same year is V, then

Av = 10,000 x N/V
Example 2:
The town in example 1 has 122,400 registered vehicles in 2005. Determine the accident rate per registered
vehicle.

Solution:
Av = 10,000 x 620/122,400
Av = 51 accidents per 10,000 vehicles
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• Accident Rate for Intersection
When analyzing traffic accidents at intersections, the total entering traffic volume usually in AADT is
considered. The equation shown below is used to compute the accident rate per million entering vehicles
(mev). The factor of 1,000,000 is applied for convenience to obtain values of Ai within two to three digits.

Ai = 1,000,000 x N/(365 x T x V)

Where N – total Number of accidents in time T

T – time frame of analysis, year
V – AADT or annual average daily traffic
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Example 3:
The T-intersection has 1,746 collision incidents over the last
18,450
three years. The annual daily traffic is shown in figure 1.
4,628
Determine the accident rate of the intersection. 28,900
500

Solution:
The total traffic entering the intersection is the sum of all the 2,800

AADTs: 780

V = 18,450+4,628+2,800+28,900+500+780 = 56,058 vehicles

per day
Therefore:
Ai = 1,000,000 x N / (365 x T x V)
Ai = 1,000,000 x 1,746 / (365 x 3 x 56,058)
Ai = 28.4 accidents per mev
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• Accident Rate for Road Sections
For segments of highways, accident rates are computed based on the total vehicle kilometers of travel. The
equation below is used to compute the accident rate per 100 million vehicle-kilometer (mvk). Again, the
factor of 100 million is applied for convenience.

As = 100,000,000 x N/(365 x T x V x L)

Where N – total Number of accidents in time T

T – time frame of analysis, year
V – AADT or annual average daily traffic
L – length of section in km
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Example 4:
A stretch of four-lane, two-way highway 5.0km long has a traffic volume of 35,000 vehicles per day. If for
the last three years, the total number of accidents recorded was 1,900, determine the accident rate per
100 mvk.

Solution:
The total traffic entering the intersection is the sum of all the AADTs:
V = 18,450+4,628+2,800+28,900+500+780 = 56,058 vehicles per day
Therefore:
Ai = 100,000,000 x N / (365 x T x V x L)
Ai = 100,000,000 x 1,900 / (365 x 3 x 35,000 x 5)
Ai = 991.5 accidents per 100 mvk
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SEATWORK:

1. The number of registered vehicles in Manhattan in 2010 was 356,000. Determine the accident rate per
registered vehicle if the number of accidents during that time was 1,080.
2. Using problem number 1, determine the accident per 100,000 population if the population in
Manhattan in 2010 was around 1,500,000.
3. A four-leg intersection along Antero Soriano Highway in Cavite has 2,200 collision incidents since
January 2020. The total annual daily traffic is 50,000. Determine the accident rate of the intersection
up to January 2024.
4. The 3.0 km stretch of Antero Soriano Highway has a traffic volume of 830 vehicles per hour. The total
number of accidents for the last two years was 1200, determine the accident rate per 100 mkv.
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