COMMODITIES VANTAGE

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

REP-019

Gold subdued as traders ready for US inflation data

TECHNICAL VIEW

GOLD: Gold inched lower on Monday as the market 27-Feb-24

1st 2nd 1st 2nd
focus shifted to U.S. inflation data due this week which Support Support Resistance Resistance
could influence the timeline of Federal Reserve interest Gold $2,025 $2,019 $2,037 $2,043
rate cuts. Spot gold edged 0.2% lower to $2,031.92 Silver $22.31 $22.12 $22.81 $23.12
ounce. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $2,043.10.
The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price WTI $76.28 $74.97 $78.46 $79.33
index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, is due
on Thursday, with a 0.4% rise forecast on a monthly EURUSD $1.0822 $1.0793 $1.0869 $1.0887
basis. The gold and silver markets are seeing some
GBPUSD $1.2660 $1.2636 $1.2703 $1.2722
technicals-based selling pressure due to the lack of
fresh fundamental news and are awaiting fresh data USDJPY 150.37 150.05 150.92 151.15
AKD SECURITIES LIMITED

points, Wyckoff added. Recent remarks from Fed

officials suggested the U.S. central bank was in no rush
DJIA-30 38,970 38,890 39,187 39,324
to cut rates, largely cementing bets against any cuts
before June. Higher interest rates diminish the appeal S&P-500 5,058 5,047 5,089 5,110
of non-yielding bullion. NSDQ-100 17,848 17,794 17,984 18,066
Source: AKD Research and MT4
OIL: Oil prices ticked up in early Asian trading on Monday, extending gains for the third straight day, as shipping
disruptions spurred supply worries. Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.69 a barrel by 0106 GMT, while
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) climbed 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $77.73 a barrel. Both benchmarks had
settled more than 1% higher on Monday. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday he hopes to have a ceasefire in the
Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza start by next Monday as the warring parties appeared to close in on a deal during
negotiations in Qatar that also aim to broker the release of hostages.

US-EQUITIES: S&P 500 futures are near flat early Tuesday as the market rally took a breather. Futures tied to the
broad market index inched down by 0.04%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 15 points, off by 0.04%.
Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.12%. Those moves follow a losing day on Wall Street that pulled the Dow and S&P 500 off
record highs seen last week. The Dow and S&P 500 slipped 0.16% and 0.38%, respectively, while the technology-heavy
Nasdaq Composite inched lower by 0.13%. Monday was also notable because it was the first day with e-commerce giant
Amazon replacing Walgreens Boots Alliance as one of 30 members in the blue-chip Dow.

US DOLLAR: The dollar traded on the back foot on Tuesday, as markets looked ahead to a week of key U.S. economic
data that will provide fresh signals on how soon the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates. The yen firmed
slightly after figures showed consumer inflation stayed at the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, rather than dipping below it for
the first time in nearly two years, as economists had forecast. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against
a basket of peers including the yen and euro, traded flat at 103.78 early in Asian time, following a 0.17% slide on Monday.
The dollar slipped 0.1% to 150.54 yen as a slightly hotter-than-expected reading for Japan’s January consumer price index
kept the BOJ on track to exit negative interest rate policy as soon as next month. The euro was little changed at $1.0847,
and sterling was flat at $1.26825.
Source: Reuters,CNBC,Bloomberg
Key Economic Indicators for Today
Time Currency Impact Economic Indicator Forecast Previous
Kamal Ahmed
kamal.ahmed@akdsl.com
Durable Goods Orders AKD Securities Limited
6:30PM USD High -4.9% 0.0%
m/m
602, Continental Trade Centre,Clifton Block 8,
CB Consumer
8:00PM USD High 114.8 114.8 Karachi, Pakistan
Confidence
UAN: 92-111-253-111
Source: www.forexfactory.com
 COMMODITIES VANTAGE
GOLD: KEY HIGHLIGHTS
GOLD SPOT
Date 26-Feb
Open 2,033.45
High 2,036.85
Low 2,024.96
Close 2,030.95
MA(50) 2,032.36
MA(100) 2,003.65
Technical Strategy: Buy on Weakness
MA(200) 1,966.05
Gold closed at US$2030.95/Oz below its 50-DMA which is at US$2032/Oz. However, RSI and
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 Stochastic are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We
recommend playing within the range of US $2020 - 2040/Oz.

SILVER: KEY HIGHLIGHTS SILVER

Date 26-Feb
Open 22.93
High 22.93
Low 22.43
Close 22.50
MA(50) 23.05
MA(100) 23.14 Technical Strategy: Play the Range
Silver closed at US$22.5/Oz below its 50-DMA which is at US$23.05/Oz. However, RSI and
MA(200) 23.26
Stochastic are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 recommend playing within the range of US $22.10 - 23.10/Oz.

WTI SPOT: KEY HIGHLIGHTS WTI SPOT (CRUDE OIL)

Date 26-Feb
Open 76.37
High 78.02
Low 75.84
Close 77.59
MA(50) 74.60
MA(100) 76.69 Technical Strategy: Buy on Weakness
MA(200) 77.60 Oil closed at US$77.59/bbl above its 50-DMA which is at US$74.6/bbl. However, RSI and
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 Stochastic are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We
recommend playing within the range of US$75.00 - 78.00/bbl.

Find AKD research on Bloomberg, firstcall.com, Reuters Knowledge and researchPool

 COMMODITIES VANTAGE
EUR/USD: KEY HIGHLIGHTS
EUR-USD
Date 26-Feb
Open 1.0831
High 1.0859
Low 1.0812
Close 1.0850
MA(50) 1.0878
MA(100) 1.0804
MA(200) 1.0823
Technical Strategy: Play the Range
EURUSD closed at US$1.0850 below its 50-DMA which is at US$1.0878. However, RSI and
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 Stochastic are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We
recommend playing within the range of US $1.0790 - 1.0880.

GBP-USD
GBP/USD: KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Date 26-Feb
Open 1.2673
High 1.2698
Low 1.2656
Close 1.2684
MA(50) 1.2673
MA(100) 1.2524 Technical Strategy: Play the Range
MA(200) 1.2564 GBPUSD closed at US$1.2684 below its 50-DMA which is at US$1.2673. However, RSI and
Stochastic are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We
So urce: A KD Research & M T4
recommend playing within the range of US $1.2630 - 1.2720.

USD/JPY: KEY HIGHLIGHTS JPY-USD

Date 26-Feb
Open 150.45
High 150.83
Low 150.28
Close 150.69
MA(50) 146.64
MA(100) 147.75 Technical Strategy: Play the Range
MA(200) 145.73 USDJPY closed at US$150.69 below its 50-DMA which is at US$146.64. However, RSI and
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 Stochastic are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We
recommend playing within the range of US$150.00 - 151.00.

Find AKD research on Bloomberg, firstcall.com, Reuters Knowledge and researchPool

 COMMODITIES VANTAGE
DJIA-30: KEY HIGHLIGHTS
DJIA-30
Date 26-Feb
Open 39,144
High 39,244
Low 39,027
Close 39,050
MA(50) 38,016
MA(100) 36,297
Technical Strategy: Play the Range
MA(200) 35,298 Dow Jones closed at 39,050 below its 50-DMA which is at 38,016. However, RSI and
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 Stochastic are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We
recommend playing within the range of 38,900 – 39,300.

S&P-500
S&P-500: KEY HIGHLIGHTS

Date 26-Feb
Open 5,087
High 5,099
Low 5,068
Close 5,069
MA(50) 4,865
MA(100) 4,645 Technical Strategy: Play the Range
S&P closed at 5,069 below its 50-DMA which is at 4,865. However, RSI and Stochastic are
MA(200) 4,523 neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We recommend playing
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 within the range of 5,050 – 5,110.

NASDAQ-100: KEY HIGHLIGHTS NASDAQ-100

Date 26-Feb
Open 17,918
High 18,013
Low 17,877
Close 17,901
MA(50) 17,205
MA(100) 16,311 Technical Strategy: Play the Range
MA(200) 15,663 NASDAQ closed at 17,901 below its 50-DMA which is at 17,205. However, RSI and Stochastic
So urce: A KD Research & M T4 are neutral in the short term charts and suggest range bound trading. We recommend
playing within the range of 17,750 – 18,000.

Find AKD research on Bloomberg, firstcall.com, Reuters Knowledge and researchPool

COMMODITIES VANTAGE

Glossary of Terms
Support: Support is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from buyers. The buying support will prevent the stock
from falling further.

Resistance: Resistance is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from sellers. The selling pressure will prevent the
stock from rising further.

RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. It compares the extent of the stock's recent price
movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought, and below 30 could be
considered oversold. Generally, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Conversely, if the RSI of a stock rises above 30 it is considered
bullish. The RSI used is of 14 days.

Bollinger Bands: A Bollinger Band, developed by famous technical trader John Bollinger, is plotted two standard deviations away from a
simple moving average. BB highly popular technical analysis technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band,
the more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.

MACD: MACD shows the relationship between a longer period moving average and a short period Moving average of a stock’s price.
Generally, the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 12-day EMA are used to calculate MACD.

EMA: Exponential moving average (EMA) is the weighted average of the prices of a given security where higher weights are given to recent
data points. EMA is used to analyze the trend of a stock.

SMA: A simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
The parabolic SAR: is a technical indicator used to determine the price direction of an asset, as well as draw attention to when the price
direction is changing. Sometimes known as the "stop and reversal system," the parabolic SAR was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., creator
of the relative strength index (RSI).

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