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    Articulo 2

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    KENNY RUBEN MONTALVO MORALES

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Revi Brain de Geogr Fin ¥.16, 10212023) 1072-107 Revista Brasileira de Geografia Fisica oncom te paindcosietesostte ‘Temporal dynamics of rainfall using the gamma distribution for the ‘municipality of Chimoio, Mozambique ‘Gd Le Che de Cua! Maco Vinisine Sits Googe do Nesimest Amie Fn! Jose ‘Ralsoa aco da Sua Eo Fans de Ranga Siva Helioa Par Rea Ruben Macao Moses" Ceo SNNGad pera on sean jiamelns perurgeamsgamicn Come ‘mage das eu flyer bau ao a Ees ESOS Peart ts vmresame cats SMe Pep USS aD ans Sg ned sn ‘ru ecbdeen ge cm 0603200 Knowledge fin pater inproves picasa planing ad sis inthe development of pubic policies. Ths. te chjecve Wa oes te aya sual al pater forthe aly of Chana. Naso Fer th esp os eres of 12 yeas 1985-2020} of monly an smal cle da, he Cans post son Fon (ORD) Te esau oni octteace was afd at ves of 25,20, 40, 807,788, a 90. prob ‘We plone the adegsey of the GPD sate Koksogor- Sauron (ES) setae ests: Chisaate ab Sapo. Will Is signee, Once showed nt the GPD et the KS er, neigh sen be weds eine fetes. Hisodaly era’ seasou i Cinele coupes Detar fo Starch, abd the aus Hom Apel 0 Noverse corerpnsto the dy seron We sn sh tha ere 75 poi oral bese 3D a8 1 et lathe ay sso, mit igh ves iu December (1083 and ary (132.35 a). Aas he eng ial i Tea mat psy of 20 a Sf il sl fo 10683 a 9901 nam especie a he ped Sod we ned tn 19971724 mm) ahd 2006 (S46 6 a) wee the wees and det eae espe chowing ‘he ea’ varity of local afl pats Tbe GPD adgutly exgesed he obo offal Cig, abd ‘saa nora ol or appa sad pblic oly develope the ali yor Cans probs agua! paig. afl tan, snl varity, bn long Diniimica temporal da precipitacao usando a distribuigio gama para o ‘municipio de Chimoio, Mocambique ‘eonbesineat dos pastes de tv loro planet gio ana o desavoieo depolcs plies Dass fonts, obese xinar or pads enue ans de cis paso mao de Cia, Sloansaue Aplcntoe 2 rn si de SI anos (1989-202) dado de exh msl ¢ asl faa de Sig wokahdade Gana (DPC, A esautive de cto de va fo rezads no esd 3040507075, 80 ae tins Riz led DPC ek ee de oe de Konno KS) fad sr zat pr nesta do paces de tv, Hasan, 0 peso inv em Chinn copeate ‘Eze ag # sees de ss Vena covespodas ao pra sec. Mostamos had, qr eu 79 fe protbilse de cotton de choos de 30 100 ro pce chvose, com mais alse deze ¢ Janse” Aamo a preciso mia £10277 mn cam probsblde dee $0. de contac decbas gas 110653 9901 mm respectnment No eros eens, prehen ghe 1997(724 mm) e 2006 (S466 am) fo sans ins chives sec, respectvamente,mostands bande varie os pies de chs lal A DPG ‘pres adegtadnnense a eobbiidade de aorta de chase Chino p se ute porate ease Foro pltacient arse desetavineata de otis pl do msi. Fasechies otis stm pine Al, ito panies, wate ponte ongls 6 £6 Sina MY Ar sinc 6X si. 2 Prmgae aE FP, Seale ML Stoel © mange. Pao Mate Sonor won Revista Bric de Grograta Fis 16, 0.02202) 1072-108 Intvaduction Rain isan important an represeniative meteorological variable, 2s_ it iflvences. the Cascterzation and. bydological syst of region, especially in the management of water Fesouces (Menezes &Fernanles, 2016). The knowledge and.” understanding of the Spatiotemporal distin asst i he planning of pubic policies, in agriculture, inte generation of energy in commerce, in tours, in ar quality in deinage, and urban development (Brio etal, 2016). Agel san enremely important sector ‘nthe ian comtnet, accounting for a average Sf 70% ofthe Inox force ad more than 25° of the GDP (UNECA, 2009). However, the evelopment of apricaltre in African countries = Strongly inpacted by aviabity apd climate hangs (Hien Consing, 2014; Pereira, 2017). ‘These changes have dict consesuences ia leing the fequeney and distribution of rainfall, inthe temperatore pte, intheinezesein sea level and the aleation of exten clint intioes (eld et a, 2014), increasing the nik ofthe occurence of ‘rouge and oe rafal inthe worl, even cesing txtreme vnlnemblies t0 dates and nail falamiies (Ahmed & Hag, 2019). The Tmvegovernmental Pavel on Climate ‘Change UPC, 2019), describes that 180 milion people an be reloeated by 2030 dec the consequentes Indeed by ciate change in Mozambique, extreme runfll eveus have ad sigiant amplicons for the evelopment of agriculture and disruptive sitistions of dearer in the envionment ofthe ‘mevopolises and rural communities. The city of Beira, in cottal Mozambique, has been experiencing the efecto imate change det its fe0erapica location, where evens sch as sea: level rise and sons stand cat (for example, Calaze, Gumbe, Ea tat eee Moods, erosion ofthe banks ofthe iver and onthe seafront, td Saline intwsion. According. to contemporary lence, extome ort rns ate expec to Intensity 35a result of global warming (Bao el 2017; Prin eta, 2017: Rastogi et al, 2017). ‘With the aaiailiyof daly rainfall dats wold anal on a iy’ scale represents one of the most investigated varibles in byaology (Miele, 2019), sueh data ae fundamental ip stating Long series analyzes (Bonaccorso & Aronic, 2016) and the probability of drought ‘mor rainfall (Mineo ea, 2019). Among the ‘most common ratios that rogue te ana of daily recon, the identification of the theoretical probably éstibuion allows the best fi 0 the frnpical samples. Studies of adjustment of the ‘probably’ dstnbuton fiction Using theoretical Probability distribution functions conseraing a set SC climatic slements have been developed, emphasizing the benefits in panning activites tal mmiimize climae risks (Catalunya etal, Papalskansa et al, 2016, Passos & al Santiago et aly 2017), I is observed tt the (Gama stbuton is overall the most sable a that the alerative distrusted oft snp specific noises and get penalized under cross ‘alidton (Huang tal, 2021, Simbes etal, 2021) Rainfall can be considered a continvoxs random varinble, and ican be ested zing probable rainfall through the vse of theoretical Imodels of probability distribution (Alves etal. 2013), Probeble rail he mai rial expected for a region, associated wath a level of probability (Carvalho & Olivers, 2012), Seasonal Climate forecasts are predicted changes in the probability density function (FDP) of wal seasonal Finfll concerning a regions climsology (Koma, 2010}. They are put of the FDP, Gams, Log. normal, Web, Cube, Fréchet, std Paso pe T distribution, commonly used ia the study of exsreie minal evens, a8 they ae b-parametre {nd em be considered comparable in terms ofthe degree of feadom (Moccia etl, 2021). “The Gara probably distibstion model ss the estimate of probable afl on moa ‘sal scale ren ves of probably of occurence (Tow, 1988) in the most diferent locations, afer hat can be coated by a stuy cared out by Pizzato eal (2012) ding the probabilistic model of incomplete Gana fistibation to aes the dstbtion of run, fund ha the model «parame ange fom 0.9 to 134 and rnged from (3.240331. The study by Batsto ea. (2013), also used the incomplete Gamma istbtion model satisfaction to dsscribe the probability of raifall occuring having obtained a 90% probability of inal occuring more than 160 tun in the mons of December, January, Feb, and March study by Souzn oa 2013), working wit the obser infill probably density function, found hatte probable ran! cectred atthe level of 73 Probability to the average ‘antl, and the dats adjusted to the gamma dstibton (Other weeks cared ot By Mossi Junior al 2016) and Pasios et al, (2017) used the probable monty and anova rin! ar the levels imei, £ Gina 7 asin 6. sha 2 Prog aE F, Pdr, Seles 3 1073 Revista Basin de Geogafia Fie 16, 0213028) 1072-1087 30,40, 50, 70,7, 80, 890% wing the Game probally’ istribiion, having observes ‘hat the probable moutly and anal fll were achieved with probabilistic Levels of 40 105 However, Coat et al. C014), Francisco et a (2018); Francisco et a. (2015) worked withthe Probabilistic model of incomplete Gamma Ssibaion atthe levels of 28, $0, and 75% of probability of antl To compare th empiica probabilies of ‘ariale with the theoreti probabilities estimated tiyagiven stitution fron, adereace tests ce sed, set as X%, Kolmogorov-Smirov, Lille, Shapio-Wik, "Diagostaho and Pearsou Anderson-Daring. Cramervon Mises (Moga et a, 2021), ro very wheter the sample valves ean be considered as coming from & population With that theoretical distin Ta tht sty, the Koimogoro-Smiraoradrence test mas oad at the main bass of analysis, whic uses the module ofthe greatest diference between the observed and stmated probability vals, compare othe table according wo the munler of observations a the Series (Catalonia ta, 2002) The knowiedge of forecasting the probability of rial favors beter apical Planing abd aid inthe faaaer' deesioc-making Tw ia tm eee the ks crop product (Garcia eal, 2013; Defiestn © Rapera, 2014; Barto et al, 2018 Nadel @t al, 2019) parca in ari and semi-r areas whore water Scarcity afets Ivelloods and food security, a= ‘most ofthe avaiable water comes fom rial uring the in season or arounate close 1 the arth’ surface (Abdalla et al, 2017). In this font the objective sae to analyze the probability of occurence of monty and anal ‘nfl, applying the probabilistic model Gama for the mincpality of himoio, Mozambique “Matevia and methods Characterization ofthe sadly area The sly was cared out inthe ‘municipality of Chimoo, locate inthe province of Manica, Mozambigo, 1°12'S latitude, 3°47-W loogine, and. 732m slevetion (Fig. 1). Tae imuiepalty of Cimoio ocepies an ae of 47740 kn witha population of approximately 363.3 mull inbatatens, with 2 demographic easy of 2048 inhabitants kn! (INE, 2019) According to the Keppen Geiger climate ‘lasicatin, the loa cima is of the Cw type Inui sbiropial climate with dey wines and bot summer, an average ai empertare of 211 °C, verge relative imity of the ai of 80%, and Fanfall ragiag from 800 to 1000 mm year" (ocelot. 2006; Jansen eta 2008; Harrison t 21,2011), Theresion smal inhabited by aa Popalaton whose survival depends pvimarly x Srila, being the lsgest sector ofthe connty’s sconomy. About 80% of houebolds ae involved inthe agricul sector contbaing up 0 29° oF the GDP (FA0, 2016), The populations agricul pasie and fod security are aected by robles reed to climate change, sich as drotgh's, floods, 0 tycones (Engen, 2008) Tae rigal events ate foocenated in vey shor periods causing sol frosioa by ruc (MICO, 2005), The southern Fegioa of Tete province, orheen Sola and ‘Manica, andthe prowices of lame and Gara sre the most cial regions with highsisk trough level (NGC, 2017, Figure 1. Location map ofthe study area, muicpaity of Choo, Mozambique, and Kogpen-Geiger late lasiiation: Af (Rainy uopical rainforest climate. Am (Tropic monsoon climate), BS (Het steppe ‘weuter} Cwa (summer rin, hot summer); Cs (Sumber rain, moderately hot summa); Cfa (Wet in all seasons, bot suainer. angels G&G sina M7 dao incr 6. sha 2, Frese a EF Poo, Seale Sarna @ mange <'® Mean G4 nate oa Pd 1074 Revista Basle de Groat Fin 16, 0.021202) 1072-1087 Weather data ‘ally recoeds of rill and average sie temperate were obtained fom dita collet by 2 conveation meteorlogial station of the ‘atonal Taste of Meteorology of Mozambique (UNAM, 2020) The statin is Tecated at laude 19°6'38"S, longitde 3°25'43"W, and alte of 607 m. The historical data seas comprised the yeas 1989 1 2020 (3 years). After the dat were (rgaized in an elecwoniesprendshot they Were submited to. deserve statistical analysis t0 Understand dispersion measures (mximum and ‘mim, measures of central tendeney nan ean, coelilent ofvaiton Cv, 90, id standard devistion () ofthe rainfall st with the 1G) of Excel. Subsequently, the analyzes the ‘monthly ant ann rfl totals were calculate ‘erage ital pd stadarized anal deviation. The variation coefficients (CV) were clssied scording 10° Wark and Nielsen (1980), where low cspersion is considered wien the CV 12%; medium dispersion when 1 (CY « 24% and high dpersion when CV > 24 td defined by extation 1 Gaye o where, 2=artmatc mean ofthe observed vals: andant deviation of the spl The ktesis oeticins (Cy) tht measure the degree of fattening ofthe sample concersing the Nonmal distribution were clcustd (Borge. 2003). The criteria for choosing Cx were ned according to Ribeio Fini (2008), were, Cy = 0, itis suggested thatthe distbuton is mesoeori, for C=O, the dstbation Ipc nd for Co 0, the dsuibaon is placuric. The kurtosis oofficioats were carvlated by equation 2. ay sen Som) ates wists ere 2 = simple sie: x, = observed vals arithmaic mean of the observed sales) s = anid detition of te simple The asymmeuy coeflicens (C,) that indicate the degre of distortion of he dsibution toa symmetne dsiiution, that na syametric fistibation, he most ffequent data are Concealed more inthe center conceming the exes were calculated by emiation 3 Ribelro Finot, 200), and te Cy classification enteria were: C,=0, te dsuibuin s symmetrical, fr C, <0, the distribution is negative asyrmetic; for Cy 0, the dstbution s postive asyinmetn. ° where, ~ sample size; s.~ observed values; = teihmeic mean of the observed alles, s = Standard deviation ofthe stp, Calculation of probability rainfall distribution fuction “The most commonly ased distribution for calculating. the probable monly and annual Finfll =the eomms distin fntion wit» Shape and scale parameter (Mossi Junior eta 2016; Passos etal, 2017, Shiau, 2020) whic cording to Hala al (2020) is deine by its probability density fanetion as shown in Eq.) brow 1 ro where, a = shape parameter (dimensiones): P= ‘eal parame (sun) exp ~ beso ofthe Nopetian Fogietn; x= anal (nm; Ta) = symbol ofthe summa function: aand +> 0. The al of te Gatun dsrbtion shows cisorent babavioe with the vale of the ape patueter (a. for Oa cl, the tall aihtly lighter than the exponential tai. as it docreases ‘ister: fra 1 th all degenerates exponentially for @ ~ 1, the ail 8 sighty beaver, singe dzcresses "more slowly than the exponatil (toes etal, 2021, “The Gamma function F(a) vas deterined fiom the inepration of equation 8, that when integrated in siferet components are obaine’ Fqutions 6 and 61. The Equation 6 cones {rom gation 7, being of simple application 9) xtlexp) foro 005 (Not significant NS). Results and discussion Figure 2 shows the anmal rainfall Aisribuion ofthe rainy region of Chinoro, inthe hstorcal series fom 1989 to 2020. The average snutal nfl was 1018.38 mum, wih 1997 being the aiiest year (1724 mm), and 2006 the east ‘ay yea (8466 mn) These values are withthe fxpeced ranges forthe region, S00 To 1000 amt year’ (Kote et al, 2006; Jansen etal, 2008 Harrison etal, 2011, of 1036 mm of average ‘nual infill fo the province of Manic (Gees, 218}, and 1016.63 mm fr the historical sexes fom 1989 402018 (Cangela et al, 2021, Inthe Hstorcl sees evluatod canbe sesh tt 4 ofthe aval anal fe the years 1959, 1993, 1996 to 2001, 2007, 2013, 2014, 2019 1 2019 i above the average sania mini, 47% of the sana afl for to year 1990 t 1992, 1994, 1993, 200202004, 2606, 2008, 2000, 2012, 2018, 201 3015 and 2017 slow the average anal ial fd 12% ofthe anual canal forthe years 2005 0, 2011 aad 2020 i clove othe average anal i eo aaa ‘Figure 2, Anal afl distribution ofa inthe Chino regon, Mozambige, om 19890 2020. ‘The main factors in rainfall vaabily in sourbern Affe, shat 8 in regions with ean summer ‘ainfll, ae ENSO. (El Nit South Oscilltion) and” STS (eoshastic ston traspostion) ofthe Indian Ocean, inching the TOZMT (Hoeling ea, 2006; Hoel ea, 2015; Zhang et al 2015). Foe Mozambique, ENSO evens (EL Nino) ace offen associated with der onions, while ENSO (La Nits), with more Ini conditions, can gece simulneousl With TOD events (Coawey et al, 2015; Gaughan tl 2016) iflerent pases of TOD inlvence rina Congls 6 £6 sina At YA sinc GX. sha. 2 2 Frngae Sha EF. Pa, Sale RM Stoel © mange. Pao Mate Sonor 1077 Revista Basin de Geogafia Fie 16, 0212028) 1072-1087 pater, independently oF in conjunction with ENSO events (Ashok e a 200) ’A tale diference beeen the ELNiBo fiom 1997/98 to what oocured during 201516 835 the honest SSTS inthe Taian Ocean during 2OIS/IG, which may explain rainfall conceming ie average (Arce eal 2017), Te dribuion of rainfall a cerain region i conditioned by tae fctore such st latte, distance foot the ocean. and the orogepic effets, in addition to ynanic fits such a te movement ofthe si masses that are associated with each ober ‘lascterze the nll indexes of a given epion {outebele, 2007. The mouths with the highest rainfall ates ecured in January, February, March, “and December, conboraiing with Zhang etl (2013) ‘nd Hoel tl (2015) ao ste tian Sothern ‘Mice, the oats of December to arch ae the ‘ain rainy season wih toa rainfall conibcing (6% of th alain In the ty, he oats of least snl were fom April November (Fi 5) rpreseatng the moat of tsnaion fea dey to ray peiods. The most vital rainy months were between May” and. September, in which ‘monthly rin averages are les than 20 mm. However, the moath of January Was the oe With the highest nna with an average of 245.79 ma. followed bythe ments of December and February wth veges of 20172 and 188.72 mi. respectively. These months, which bad the highest Fail, were also thous withthe highest standard a 0 200 Raina (Rm) deviations (136.13 mm, 12600 mm, and 128.76 rum espectivey). The sales standard deviation Was observed forthe month of August (1020). Rainfall values ae explsined by the BL Nido evens, with hot SST io the east ad eater ofthe PocificOceaa and SST ware tha the average it the Indian Ocsu, are associated wit eductons in the mini in southers Ata, while La Nina, With ‘tomes of cold SST over the cetal Pai and bot SST over the West Pace and the Indian (Ocean, ae associated with increases ia rafal ‘ver southern ARs, However, inreases in Fepionl rainfall are msaly driven bythe lower tropospheric eseoniceieustio, resting ian verge topospesic rise and an increase in the Ao of motte cote region, with anomalies of old SST over the ental Pacific nad ot SST over the Westra Poste and the Indian Ocee ate sociated with incresses in inal over southern ‘Atfica Gating etal, 2006: Hoell tal, 2015; Zoaaget a, 2015), but als, in tbe Souter Altea region, the 2CIT is more significant over the (Geeans “and, therefore, TSM is one. of the comming fico in its postion and intensity (FUCEME, 2020, Thus, savannss are changing opal deo climate change, fie, anil management, and intense fuelwood tarvesing. In southern Attica, large res (> m in bight) are wer threat wile shrub cover (-3 my) i aeressing (Wesel & al, 2m23) Month Figure 5. Monthly averages and saad deviation of inl i the Chim regio, Mozanbige, faethe pared 198910 2020, 6.1 c. sha wer, trae nner GX sha £81 Pngae he EF. Paar H Mes RAE Stoel © mange. Pao Mate Sonor 1078 Revista Basin de Geogafia Fie 16, 0213028) 1072-1087 Table 1 shows the ress of monthly averages, standard deviations. coetiients of Sarinion (CV), and the maxim sn main exten values of monly rainfall The months of Sanuary, Fetmuary, March, Apri, September, October, November, and December ofthe Yeas 1997, 1989, 2019, 016, 1997. 1991, 1998, and 20U4 wit emoly mixin rafal, fl of 547.40 mm, $16.60 ma, 202.60 min, 499.40 ms, 11480 mm, 12050 mm, 161.70 ax and 472.00, ram, especies, i Which, during this ped, shout 9% of the total annval min concerted ‘The minum rin (0 mm) wes Concentrated inthe months of June, July, August, September, and ‘November inthe years 2013, 2018, 2012, 2019 2005, 2010, aud 2015. “The “increme in temperatures, epocally in the umber of days exe as ell s changes nein are the tain clic variables tha fect agricuare on the African continent Qiang etal, 2014; Pereira, 2017, ‘The CV of the monthly averages and he standard deviation were high. The highest CVs ‘wee obiained fortwo months of winter (My ad Joly) and one of sumer (September, and the lowest tore observed an the rns? monte, Saavary and Devernber with 5498 and 62.47%, respocivaly. The CV vals inthe months of May 1a Sane, aad September were 108, 14, and 126% respectively Those high tales ae invenced festeme mn events (EE) (tes) tt were not expected forthe moath ofthe yer of ocurenee of FFE The CV forall mows is greater than 2s, ‘which acording fo Warrick aad Nissen (1980) indices tht tere isa high dispersion among the storage values of rainfall hats, here i great ‘arity ofthe ein. Despite this all he mean ‘ales are preatr han th medians, confimsiag the positive asymmetry ofthe dats. is noteworthy that, every mouth presented postive asymmetry coefficient (C. > 1}, showing ® postive aymametne dtibion (Rie Jini 2004) (Table 1). Conceming Keates, oly the monly average valves of January, February, ly, November, and December ‘presented negative urtosis coefficient (Ck = 0, Indicating tat in these months the data dseibution is of the leptocutic type, hich means, ease to tis lo thst deviate fom te average, which fie to the possibilty of rain oseumences. The month of uly which s inthe dry season, deans 8 strong possibilty of oecurence of signiicnt fais tothe oer month on are ia the season of Hide rin (May, Tune, August. Septomber, and October) le 1. Monthly avrages, standard deviation, coficint of variation (CV) and exwoms values of monthly inal and year of occurence in Chimie, Mozarbigu, fr te period 1989 102020 sO Med Max Yeor Min Year Mont (om) (am) 60) (eum) (cam) eect my occured GS Tan 245.79 $498 248 547 19971970191 daR O88 Fe 8872 G82 1S88 5171989 9901992948 O78 Mar 136.78 7839 1087 499 2019 1360 2007328 182 ap 687 Ua? $985 203 2016 $60 2008190 148 Mey 438 1043 1198 70.1 1996030 1998 506. 196 Ju 1031 148 626 475 2000000, yeas 225 1.63 mt ast 9598 995 $31 2018 000 yes 041 O87 Aue 1089 9953 955 489 1999 00 Ayenrs 3.84 188 Sp 6st 1268 1038 1181997 0002006 16.42 3.59 ox 3856 $87 2515 121 1998 0402018 93 O92 Nov 7093 5839 763 162 1991 00 2012-84 008, Dee 20172 G2a7 226 47220143850 206 9.65040 Yeny lia toad ogy ‘Waere-t = ane mann: += wandard devon: CV = sein of vanaion Mad= slam “Max aod Min = maximum and minimum renal vale; C, = asymmetry coefficient; Cy = kurtosis coast. Table 2 presents the values of she rameters of shape (a eae (B) of he range distribution of average mowhly rainfall in the historical series and the estimates of probable Cong £6 stha Af Pra nc 6.5 sit 2 Frngae ina EF. Pow, Sale Sarna @ mange <'® Mean G4 nate oa Pd 1079 Revista Basin de Geogafia Fie 16, 0213028) 1072-1087 monthly rial at siferet levels of roby. twas found tha the average monthly and annal anf vals ose cows ote level of 0 sd 50% probebiliy. ‘This fact suggests that the ‘ppeopstion of information or planning raga projects may compromise is Use, asi doesnot Ive the minimum precipitable dep in th region. therefore it will ces in. uadertliation of agicliral equipment and acessories. The vale fF the average annual raifll (1018.38 ma) is beeen 1065 4 and 990.10 ram forthe levels of 40 to 30% of the probmblty of the Gamma ‘stibaion. th te same probability variation, the fxpested average montidy infill was observed {Sethe monte of Jantar, Fobrsay, Mari, Ape. and December, wile in the montis of May to ‘November. the average monthly rainfall decreased ‘sccuting atthe levels of 30 ¢ probability ‘The se of the mean se 2 cimessooing parameter can. genet unerdimensioing. of Trigen ssstems causing losses 0 the farmer (Coan et al, 2014). Acconting to Siva et a. (2013), generally, the average value ofthe rainfall is between 40 and. 50% of the. probability of occurence Passos et al 2017) verifies tht in the ‘months of January, February, March, Apel, May ‘Agus and Octobe, the average was been the levels of 40r0 0% of probability anda te mouths ‘the, uly, November, ad Deceber fo average ‘were recused borwasa 3010408, Ta the design of iigation projets, a 75% probability level is enerall adopted (Std, 1990; Bernsdo, 1998: Doorenbos & Pi, 1997: Frizzone st al, 2005), while th ase ofthe level of 90 % liplis the oversizng of he istgation system, Table 2 shows that in the months of agua ond Decersber ata probability level of 75% anf probably pester tan 100 mm (see the eoluma of 25% probability), tat trans fore thaa 133 mm im Jastsry end 104 1m it December every 10 yeas. At the same level of probability (75%), to rainfall more than $0 mm, this occurs inthe moots of February (86.7 a) su Mach (64.2 mm), and below $O mu his Was ‘served in Api to November. ‘Atte 75% probity level intbe moms octanuary and Decerbe, afl higher hai the other months, mith mc lower valves font May to October which coiciges wih the ey season inthe repion- The peomioance of eeater Fatal i the moat roe lnary to Dosember Associated with the great activity of seconday ae ‘irealton, suing fom he perfomance ofthe old oot. The intensity ofthese rains is ike to the domain of low aumospheic pressure systems (ess than IDL3 mba) at this sme of the year, producing prolonged rains, cloud formation, and moire. coacetation in the ate, which ate sociated with the tins from the south aad outa foe etry of col nts in the rept (Boeting eal, 2006, Hoel et al 2015, Zang et 3013), Nocvithstanding this, te passage of La Nia slgitly inproves the rufall dung the season, leading 10 the sight anticipation of the begining ofthe growing season nereasing the ‘eaeationcoverConvay eta, 2018, Gaughan et 81, 2016) “Table 2. Estimates ofthe parametes of he Gamma dstibuton (a, f) of average monty anf (run) snd average probable monthly rainfall (um) for diferent levels of probably, in Chimoio forthe listrcl series fom 1989 10 2020, Mont #8 8 gy we Ta SRS 36 8S a Ty Tass Feo 1887 19 985 482757 887 Mar R68 19 715 Ma SUS 612 Apr 686 22 299 189 26 330 May 4 09 162 12 28 36 yun 110 08 142 07 17 24 Jl 16107 217 «09-2433 Aug 20 os 181 08 30 27 Sep 169 08 202 13 30 40 Ox 386 10 384 41 86 Ld Nov 732 16 48 158 262 313 Dec 2049 22 914 604 905 1043 Poke ani a a a WP TST Bay PBT IS SD log 1282 1571 1902 303 2548 "6 929 1138 1378 1670 1847 M4 463 $59 667 98817 46 68 95 8 171 199 BL 47 68 94 129 sz 43°67 57 36 Iss 222 34053 75 lot 182 66 S177 199 We 201 2B Bs 97 268 384 dea 35 M4 ATL 89 726 995-998 1180 145.7 1754 2089 24932737 Femi 0184115853 G6RS 765.8 BOTA MISS 918A 9901 10653 11500 11987 Table 2 shows that the value of she parnnete f vtie tom 14.2 in Fae 1998.5 in Febrary, not exceeding 100 in all months, whic made i posible To wee the ocomplete Gama onels Z Cestna 07a 6% sina 2 Froqae na PP, Sole © 83 Yarns @ mange <'® thao G4 nate oa Pd 1080 Revista Basin de Geogafia Fie 16, 0213028) 1072-1087 sedation inthe calculation of the estimates of the probable rainfall (Thom, 198), This indicates ht the moot iia data foe the ete historical series were well adjusted bythe gama Aisibution The highes values occur in oaths (wah the highest rainfall Qamuay, February March, and December) Tierefore the higher ‘aes of th scale parameter (inte rai period found i this stud. odate a rete variably of ‘he data due othe great asyumeuy of rafal in the region (Masi & Main Neto, 1989). The a paruneter tated berween 0.70 in aly and 26 tn January. However te variation ofthe parametee Bi related to the asymmetry of the moi he feymimetny being iaveraly proportional. (Botetho & Morais, 1999). ‘Asconing Yo Nello and Sis (2013), he 1S testi qualitative ad allows only to conclude shout he adequacy ofthe probably distbutens Tested, and does not offer ascent basis t0 compare the ft berween lifren dstbuions being Widely used to verify the adequacy ofthe imaxionm minal series 10. the probability fsbuions (Backer al 201, raga ea 2013, Caldera etal, 2015) Isis soy theres sow that tho est approved the gamma dlsvouton foe ‘he monly vales, being a soable wmabemtical ‘model for representing the saris of rains inthe Chimoio region, Mozambique. The series with Low symmetry and kos ae beter suited 0 the [Logencma disbation of 3 parameters, wile the Secs wi high asymmetry a Kuss ested in 1 more siisfctory ft for Pearsons Log- Disrituio, followed by the Log-Normal of 2 parameters (Back, 2001), However, a8 the KS esti not specilized for marcos on the tile of distin, te ee tue then vein sing am AD test (Lewis & King, 2016), making assumptions about the species of the ‘uaderying dition to determine the Iimponance of changes in distibutons and deviations in tails The resus obtained inthe AD Table 3 shows the statis valves of the Ks tes (recommended for analyzing distribution taiesions in chute studies) (Fraeisco etal 2015). The Shapico-Wilk (SW), D’Agostinho and Pearson (DP), an Anserson-Darling (AD) tests ‘were also wed, at eval of Ie probably, wae found at the Gamma probability estibuton was sdagiate to etnte the ssn forthe momty ects of January, February, Marc, Apa, July ‘August November, and December at 1% probably, when using the KS test the wales Ealelated for these mots were lower ths the trical table Yaes, whic sogg8s the eitence fof am agreement between ie oberved ani expected toguencios. test in the Gama probabilistic. model ware Sstsictor Tor the mons of January, Febrisy, ‘Nocembe, and December ofthe soaized seis The SW normality test (Shapiro & Wilk, 1965) wa applied tote raion sverige tne Series sind demonsteates tht most of the models muna average senes canbe described as nora at 21% probably level (Lewis & King, 2016). As forthe SW test t wap only suitable forthe maths of January, Fetruny, November, and December. The Chisgunre test adapted 10 the istibusions adjusted by sho maxim liketlbod Imetbod for the mouths Jaary, Febru, Mah, May, Jun, July, August, September, November, sn December, and Was not Sitable fr the moth OC Apel whea te parameters were estimated Using the momen metho. The DP test was more stable forthe months of Janvary, Febrinry, Ip, Octobe. "November, aad December, However, al tests binve Shown to be suitable for anil ran, For te other months that were aot mentioned ia the Fespocive fos, a5 they ware nt sigiicant, tat '5 tay are no suitable or the Gama pobabiy Gisribaion, However, lest wore sigan or the probably of annua rafal. angels 6 sina M7 ao incr 6. sha 2, Freee aE FP, Seale Sarna @ mange <'® Mean G4 nate oa Pd 108 Revista Besa de Geogr Fs 16, 002202) 1072-107, le 3, desi et statis forthe monthly and sonal ein fom 1989 to 2020, Chim Mozambisu, at evel of 1% probably Shap “Rae Kolmogoror-Siimmov DrAgostine& Pearson Moats wit Dating Daax rae _W Pras Pre aa) Prae Gala Tax onenTe* —So.100) ODT OST aga OSS Oana Tae TRS Feb 01319 —>0.1000 9248" 2s «BNI ITA agaRye® 0.0257 S00 15.086 Mar ou6i3** —00R37 sss" = 000s 1783" ©0001 «137 = om 00r S86 Ape 0.1726" nis OSH 0.0006 1296" 01S LE 0006 TS 086 May DISS 0.007.808" 01000 9672 oaasI L787 OOH 9HI"® 36S LOU? 15.086 Dec 01536 0058 ORT 00K «176 OMIAS 68074064 ILO 15.086 Yearly 008i 01000 OOTDE™ OST ORDO OGRE 16RD TF aad Sigal p “DOT ond no GR, IPA, Campa GL €,Sha M Yara ior 6. She. F RE Prue a EF, Poon, Aerals ERM, Ycneos © Meuongs Pana 4. ena ier, 1082 Reva Bric de Geogr Fis 16, 002202) 1072-108, The Gama probabilistic model adapted 10 ‘monthly an ania rainfall data, which can be seo estimate probable intl a diferent levels ff probability an the minicipalty of Chino, Mozambique, ‘The months. of May, June September, and October donot follow this isiibution, requing fume studies on 2 sibation dat may beter represent the any son inthis region At the highest liabiliy level (75%) there were cillatons iat anil neniie of 2.40 ‘mnt and 13330 observed inthe mouths of Fane and Taaary, respectively. The best tne for planing nd agricultural cavaton i aafed coos in the raion from Desembe to Marc becuse i reseusthe lowest probably of ery pcieds and the greestposibilty of comsective. rainy Peis Analysis of the rif data st the 75% probability level insists that oy to mows 2Mo, January and December, when the amoust of rainfall expected, exceeded. 100 am and the sverage annual ‘taal prcipated blade was beeen the levels of 4040 508 underestinaing ‘ales of 75% probably of occurence, Acknowledgements "The ators hank te Coordination for he Improvement of Hisher Edvetion Persoel (CAPES ~ Financing Cose 001) and the Fundagao de Amparo» Ciacia ¢ Tecnologia do Exndo de Pomambuco (FACEPE) for” graning the sehleshipe References Alva, 0; Kasimos, A;Chen, Mj Ak Maktoum, A ALHOsa, T & Clark 1 2017 Woner resources aid area the way fora Springer Water htps:/doLorg10-1007/978- B319-518565 Adios. Es Volp, EF, & Lombardo, LB (2016) Raiadeop size distribution: adjutant ‘erfommaace of common theereical models Av. Water Resorsen, 96, 200-308 ‘ps: dok.og 10.1016 advwatres 2016.07.01, ° Ahmed, M.X.O & Hag, SMLA. 2019, Indigenous ‘peoples’ perceptions of climate change, forest ‘source managemear and coping sateies ‘comparative stidy in Bangladesh, Environmental "Development and Satna 21, 679-708, np. of/10.1007/10568017-0055-1 Alves AVP: Santos, GBS: Menere Filo, FCM, & Sanches, L, 2013, Andise dos iottdos de estimativa panos paimetes des

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