Proxy wars

What is meant by the term “Proxy War”? Are there any extrinsic factors at play in the internal security situation of Pakistan?(2020)

A proxy war is an armed conflict between two states or non-state actors which act on the instigation(ishtiaal angaizi,
agwa,bhrakna,uksana) or on behalf of other parties that are not directly involved in the hostilities(dushmani)

Or

Proxy warfare is best defined as the direct or indirect sponsorship of third-party conventional or irregular forces that lie outside of the
constitutional order of states engaged in armed conflict.

Examples
War Dates Combatant 1 Combatant 2 Result
Internal conflict in 1948–present Myanmar Opposition forces Ongoing
Myanmar
 Burma (until 1989) ABSDF All Burma Students'
 Tatmadaw Democratic Front
 Myanmar Police Arakan Army
Force DKBA-5Democratic Karen
Supported by: Buddhist Army - Brigade 5
India knukaren National Union
China[280]
Israel[281] (formerly)[282]  knlakaren National
Russia[283] Liberation Army
Philippines kiokachin Independence
Ukraine Organisation
North Korea
Yugoslavia (until 1988)  Kiakachin Independence
Army
mndaamyanmar National
Democratic Alliance Army
ssanshan State Army-North
ssasshan State Army - South
tnlata'ang National Liberation
Army
uwspunited Wa State Party

 uwsaunited Wa State Army

...and others
Supported by:
United States (1951–1953)
Thailand
China
Pakistan
Vietnam
Poland
Republic of China (1950–1961)
Balochistan conflict 1948–present Baloch separatist groups Pakistan Ongoing

 blabalochistan  Pakistan Army

Liberation Army  Inter-Services Intelligence
 brabalochistan  Military Intelligence of Pakistan
Republican Army  Frontier Corps
 Blfbalochistan
Liberation Front
 Ubaunited Baloch Iran
Army
 Imperial Army (until 1979)
 Leblashkar-e-
Balochistan  IRGC (since 1980)
 Blufbalochistan Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Liberation United Corps
Front
 BSO (Azad) Baloch
Students Organization
Supported by:
India
Soviet Union (until
1988)
Democratic Republic of
Afghanistan (until 1990)
Iraq (1970s)
 Israel

Sectarian groups
Jundallah
Jaish ul-Adl
Jundallah (Pakistan)
al-Qaeda
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
Sipah-e-Sahaba

Arab–Israeli conflict 1948–present Palestine Israel Ongoing

 plopalestine
Liberation Supported by:
Organization United States
United Kingdom
 Hamas
France
 Fatah Germany
Canada
Supported by: Australia
Egypt (1948–78) Egypt (since 1978)[
Iraq
Syria
Italy (1956)
Germany (1956)
Cuba
Algeria
Bangladesh
Soviet Union
Lebanon

Civil conflict in Turkey 1976–present TAK Kurdistan Turkey Ongoing

Freedom Hawks
TKP/ML-
TİKKO(Communist Supported by:
Party of Bulgaria
Turkey/Marxist– European Union
Leninist ) Georgia
MKP-HKO-phgmaoist Germany
Communist Party of NATO
Turkey Turkic Council
United Kingdom

Halk Kurtuluş Ordusu or

HKO
Partizan Halk Güçleri or
PHG
Maoist Party
Maoist Party Centre
thkotürkiye Halk
Kurtuluş Ordusu,
abbreviated THKO)
Devrimci Yol
Revolutionary People's
Liberation Party/Front

Supported by:
Soviet Union
China
asalaarmenian Secret
Army for the Liberation of
Armenia (ASALA) (1970s
–1988)
Syria
Greece
Cyprus
Iran
Iraq
Libya
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan

Iran-Saudi Arabia proxy 1979–present Saudi Arabia Iran Ongoing

conflict United Arab Emirates
Bahrain Hezbollah
Jordan Syria
Egypt
 Qatar(until 2017) Iraq(from 2003)
Yemen (Hadi Yemen (Supreme Political
government) Council)
Kuwait
Lebanon (March 14 Supported by:
Alliance) China
Morocco Libya (until 2011)
Iraq (until 1989) Palestine
Russia
Supported by:
Soviet Union
Afghanistan North Korea
France
Germany
Israel
Italy
Japan
Mauritania
NATO
Nigeria
Somalia
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States

Insurgency in Jammu and 1989–present India Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami Ongoing

Kashmir
 Indian Army Lashkar-e-Taiba
 Indian Air Force Jaish-e-Mohammed
 Jammu and Kashmir Hizbul Mujahideen
Police Harkat-ul-Mujahideen
 Central Reserve Police Al-Badr
Force Jammu Kashmir Liberation
Afghanistan Front
Supported by:
Pakistan
Supported by: China
United States Taliban
Iran Saudi Arabia
Russia al-Qaeda

Yemeni Crisis (part of Iran- 2011–present Yemen (Hadi Yemen (Supreme Political Ongoing
Saudi Arabia proxy government) Council)
conflicts) Saudi-led coalition Supported by:
Supported by:
Iran
Iraq
Somalia
North Korea
United States
Russia
Eritrea
Syria
United Kingdom
France
Pakistan
Canada[389]
Italy[
Turkey

Ukrainian crisis 2013–present Ukraine Russia Ongoing

Supported by:
NATO North Atlantic  Crimea
Treaty Organization
Donetsk People's
European Union
Republic
United States
Luhansk People's
Azerbaijan Republic
Turkey Odessa People's
Georgia Republic
Poland Kharkiv People's
France Republic
Croatia Supported by:
Sweden South Ossetia
Abkhazia
Transnistria
Armenia
Republic of Artsakh

Syrian Civil War 2011–present Syrian opposition Syria Ongoing

Supported by: Supported by:
 Saudi Arabia Armenia
Qatar Iran[
United States Russia
Turkey Iraq
Libya China
European Union North Korea
Israel Cuba
Australia Venezuela
Pakistan Algeria
Egypt (before 2013) Belarus
France Angola
United Kingdom Egypt (from 2015)
Jordan
Italy
Netherlands Rojava
Canada Supported by:
Germany United States
United Arab Emirates France
United Kingdom
Iraqi Kurdistan[418]
CJTF-OIR Combined
Joint Task Force –
Operation Inherent
Resolve)

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict 1988–present Armenia Azerbaijan Ongoing

Nagorno-Karabakh Supported by:
Supported by: Pakistan
Russia Kyrgyzstan
Greece Turkey
Israel
Ukraine

Modern proxy wars

War Dates Combatant 1 Combatant 2 Result
2012–17 Lebanon Pro-Syrian government Combatant 1 Won
Syrian Civil War spillover  Lebanese Army militias:
in Lebanon  Internal Security
Forces  Hezbollah
Supported by:  PFLP-GC
Australia
Canada Popular Front for the
Cyprus Liberation of Palestine
Czech Republic – General Command
France
Pakistan  Amal Movement
Germany  Syrian Social
Italy Nationalist Party
Jordan  DFLPDemocratic
Netherlands Front for the Liberation
Saudi Arabia of Palestine
South Korea  Popular Nasserist
Spain Organization
Turkey  As-Sa'iqa
United Kingdom  Fatah al-Intifada
United States  Arab Democratic
Party (until 2014)
 Arab Movement Party
Supported by:
Syria
Iran
Russia

Other militias:

 Lebanese Communist
Party
 Fatah

First Libyan Civil War 2011-2011 Anti-Gaddafi forces Libya Combatant 1 Won

Supported by: Supported by:

Qatar Belarus
NATO Algeria
United States Zimbabwe
France Cuba
United Kingdom Venezuela
 Italy PLO
Sudan North Korea
Canada South Africa
Turkey Nicaragua
Netherlands Bolivia
Spain Namibia
United Arab Emirates Ecuador
Greece
Romania
Norway
Denmark
Portugal
Belgium
Tunisia
Switzerland
Moldova
Sweden
Jordan

Iraqi insurgency 2011–2014 Iraq Shi'a factions: Stalemate

Iraqi Kurdistan
 Special Groups
 Promised Day
Supported by: Brigades
United States  Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq
 Kata'ib Hezbollah
 Mahdi Army Inactive
Badr Brigades Soldiers of
Heaven
Other militias

Supported by:
Iran

Tajikistani Civil War 1992–1997 United Tajik Opposition Tajikistan Stalemate

 IRP Islamic
Renaissance Party of Supported by:
Tajikistan Russia
Uzbekistan
 Democratic reformists
Kyrgyzstan
 Gorno-Badakhshan
 Jamiat-e Islami
Islamic State of
Afghanistan
Taliban factions2
Supported by:
al-Qaeda
Islamic Renaissance
Party of Tajikistan (IRP)
Pakistan
Iran

Yugoslav Wars 1991-2001 Slovenia sfrsocialist Federal Combatant 1 Won

Bosnia Republic Yugoslavia (before
NATO 1992)
Supported by: frfederal Republic
Turkey Yugoslavia (from 1992)
Pakistan Republika Srpska
Iran AP Western Bosnia
Saudi Arabia Republic of Serbian
Krajina
Supported by:
Croatia Russia
Croatian Republic of Greece
Herzeg-Bosnia
Supported by:
Albania Macedonia
Supported by:
Ukraine (main arms
National Liberation supply)
Army Bulgaria
frfederal Republic
 Yugoslavia

Afghan Civil War 1989–1992 Mujahideen Democratic Republic of Combatant 1 Won

Afghanistan
Supported by
United States Supported by
Pakistan Russia
China
Saudi Arabia

Angolan Civil War 1974–2002 UNITA MPLA Combatant 2 Won

FNLA SWAPO
FLEC MK
Front for the National
Liberation of the
Supported by: Congo (FNLC)
United States
People's Republic of
China Supported by:
Zambia Cuba
Morocco Tanzania
Zaire (until 1997) Yugoslavia (until 1992)
Egypt Guyana
France Portugal
Belgium India
Burkina Faso (from North Korea
1987) Kazakhstan (from 1996)
Israel Slovakia (from 1993)
United Kingdom Brazil
Pakistan Russia
South Korea Kyrgyzstan

Cold War proxy wars

War Dates Combatant 1 Combatant 2 Result
Afghan Civil War 1989–1992 Democratic Republic of Mujahideen Combatant 2 Won
Afghanistan
Supported by
Supported by United States
Soviet Union (until Pakistan
1991) China
Saudi Arabia

Sri Lankan Civil War 1983–2009 Liberation Tigers of Sri Lanka Combatant 2 Won
Tamil Eelam Maldives
India
Supported by:
Libya Supported by:
India (until 1987) Pakistan

Soviet–Afghan War 1979–1989 Soviet Union Sunni Mujahideen: Combatant 2 Won

Democratic Republic of  Jamiat-e Islami

Afghanistan o Shura-e Nazar
 Gulbuddin faction
o Maktab al-
Supported by: Khadamat
India  Khalis faction
Libya  Ittehad i-Islami
East Germany  Irmislamic Revolution
Movement
 Nlfnational Liberation
Front
 nifanational
Islamic Front of
Afghanistan

Supported by:
Pakistan
United States
United Kingdom
China
Saudi Arabia
West Germany
 United Kingdom
Turkey
Egypt
France
Israel
Japan

Shia Mujahedeen:

 Harakat i-Islami
 Afghan Hezbollah
 Nasr Party (IVOA)
Coirgacorpus of Islamic
Revolution Guardians of
Afghanistan


 Shura Party
Irmislamic Revolution
Movement


 UOIF
 Raad Party

Supported by:
Iran

Small Maoist groups:

 aloafghanistan
Liberation
Organization
 Samaazman-e
Azadibakhsh-e
Mardom-e Afghanistan,
 Amfffafghanistan
Mujahedin Freedom
Fighters Front

Supported by:
Sri Lanka
United Arab Emirates
Jordan
Malaysia

Dhofar Rebellion 1962–1976 DLF Dhofar Oman Combatant 2 Won

Liberation Front (1962–
1968) Supported by:
PFLOAG Popular Iran
Front for the Liberation Abu Dhabi
of the Occupied Arabian Saudi Arabia
Gulf (1968–1974) United Kingdom
ndfloagnational Jordan
Democratic Front for the Egypt
Liberation of Oman and Pakistan
the Arabian Gulf (1969– UAE
1971) United States
pflopopular Front for
the Liberation of
Oman (1974–1976)

Supported by:
China
Soviet Union
South Yemen
East Germany

Chinese Civil War 1944–1949 cpccommunist Party kmtkuomintang Combatant 1 Won

of China nranational
plapeople's Liberation Revolutionary Army
Army [16][17]
Supported by:
Supported by: United States
 Soviet Union
Greek Civil Warc 1944–1949 Greek communists Greece Combatant 2 Won
(Democratic Army of
Greece, National Supported by:
Liberation Front, Greek United Kingdom
People's Liberation United States
Army, Communist Party of
Greece)

Supported by:
Albania
Bulgaria[
Yugoslavia
1945–1946 Azerbaijan People's Imperial State of Iran Combatant 2 Won
Iran crisis of 1946 Republic
Republic of Mahabad Supported by:
Supported by: United States
Soviet Union

1950–1953 North Korea South Korea Stalemate(taatul)

Korean War China United Nations
United States
Supported by:
Bulgaria Supported by:
Czechoslovakia Australia
Hungary Belgium
Poland Bolivia
Romania Canada
Soviet Union Colombia
Mongolia Commonwealth of Nations
Cuba
Denmark
Ethiopia
France
Greece
India (Medical support)
Israel
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Taiwan
New Zealand
Norway
Philippines
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Thailand
Turkey
United Kingdom

Sand War 1963 Algeria Morocco Stalemate

Supported by: Supported by:

Egypt US
Cuba France
Soviet Union

Principles of proxy wars

A successful proxy war that is able to disaffiliate(nakara bnana, ilhaaq khatam kerna) a part of a territory or initiate regime change in a country
must consider four major parameters:
1. The numerical size of the rebel(baagi) army.
2. The volume of external aid and military assistance actually provided to the rebels.
3. The resolve and ability of the home army to resist the armed rebellion(bagawat).
4. The physical presence of external military action by a foreign country.
Sectarian Divisions, Proxy wars and chaos

The regional power struggle between Shias and Sunnis is evident throughout the Middle East and North Africa. This conflict dates back more
than a thousand years and stems from religious differences between the two sects. Like in the past, Shia and Sunni leadership are currently
using these differences to increase their spheres of power, prestige and influence. These divisions have aggravated(barhana) already existing
tensions in the Islamic world with Shia Iran supporting Shia groups – and Sunni nations, such as Saudi Arabia supporting Sunni groups. These
endeavors(koshishein) are based on opposing strategic interests. As such, sectarian conflict will continue to shape the region into the
foreseeable future. This is evident by examining proxy conflicts throughout the region, such as in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The political framework
that will eventually emerge will have profound(gehra) strategic consequences for the region and beyond.
Background

The split of the Muslim community into two denominations occurred soon after the death of Prophet Mohammad in 632 CE. The individual that
would succeed him would serve as both a religious and political leader of the Muslim world. Sunnis asserted (zor dena)that the successor(baad
mey aaney wala, jaanasheen) should be appointed and the Shia argued that succession(jaanasheeni, silsila) should be based on
lineage(nasab). The split occurred when Abu Bakr, Prophet Mohammad’s father in law and close friend was appointed as the next leader of the
Muslim world. The Shia (the party of Ali) did not accept Abu Bakr’s succession. They believed that Ali should have succeeded Prophet
Mohammad, as Ali was his cousin, son-in-law and close friend. They further believed that Prophet Mohammad explicitly named him as his
successor.

This core disagreement between the two sects has served as the premise(bunyaad) for conflict between the two factions (groh)and “continues to
shape the history of the Islamic world and the broader Middle East”. Like today, the schism(firqa waariyat) was as much about religious
leadership, as it was about power and influence. Currently, the schism is being used to fan the flames of animosity(adawat) and distrust(adam
aitmaad) that has existed between Shias and Sunnis since 632. More specifically, leaders are still using sectarianism as a tool to strengthen their
own legitimacy(qanooni haisiyat), power and influence. Similarly to the supporters of Abu Bakr and Ali, modern religious leaders are also fighting
for the leadership of and hegemony over the Muslim world and the region. This includes Iraq, Syria and Yemen where sectarian conflict has
reached destructive levels and has created a humanitarian(insaan dost) crisis.

Proxy Battlegrounds

The Middle East is in the midst(darmiyan) of a regional power struggle between Iranian allied Shias and Saudi allied Sunnis. These key players
are primarily motivated by politics and competition for influence and power. As such, Saudi Arabia and Iran are taking advantage of instability in
the region and are using religion and ancient grievances(shikayat) as instruments of policy. This has translated into a wide scale proxy conflict
that has destabilized the region.

Saudi Arabia fears Iran’s quest(talash, justuju) for regional hegemony(tasallut, baladasti) and sees its growing influence as an alarming shift in
regional balance. As such, undermining(majroh kerna) Iran and its allies, such as Iraq and Syria, and ideally reversing Iran’s gains motivate
Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Iran is using the changing geopolitical landscape to enhance its influence and to become the dominant regional
power. To achieve their goals these powers frame geopolitical contests within a religious framework and play up sectarian tensions. Thus,
resulting in the conversion of the Middle East into their battleground without ever directly confronting each other. Moreover, their proxy war has
exacerbated(barh gaya) the volatile situation in the region, including in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. In Syria alone, as of August 2015, “almost a
quarter of a million people, including nearly 12,000 children, have been killed…since [war] broke out in March 2011…” and millions have been
displaced. Additionally, in Iraq there have been approximately 163,521 civilian deaths and in Yemen more than 1,670 civilians were killed in
the violence since March 26, 2015.

Conclusion

The magnitude(shiddat) of conflict in the region and the role of external players on its continuation(tasalsul) will have profound(gehra) strategic
consequences far into the future. As such, it is important to have a firm grasp(mazboot giraft) of the role that religion and sectarianism play
as mobilizing forces in regional politics. Moreover, by understanding the complexities associated with the Sunni-Shia conflict and how conflict
within Islam may come to shape regional relations with the outside world, the West will be better able to protect its interests and security.