News Rethinking our approach to climate change See Simon sharpeoffer ways toaddress the issue on 8 October newscientist.com/nslmag Environment Risk of mass deaths in heatwaves Global warming of 1.5°C to 2°C will ead to fierce conditions that even healthy people may not be able to survive when outside, finds Michael Le Page [AS THE world warms beyond 15°C, large parts of the world ill start tohaveheatwaves soextreme that healthy young people could die within several hours ifthey fal to find respite, study has warned. ‘Thiscould result in mass deathsin places where people and buildings aren't adapted to ‘extreme heat andair conditioning Israre,says Carter Powisat the University of Oxford. "You could havea very extreme says. "There's not stone threshold that is relevant to everyone. Different populations have different thresholds where therecould suddenly be dramatic mortality outcomes.” Powisandhis colleagues have now used data from weather stations and climate models, tosee where in the worldsuch conditions may currently occur based on Vecellio's 31°C wet-bulb findings, and how this ill change heatwavethat departs from. asthe world warms historicalnorms substantially, 3 ea Passing tne threshold would otherwise expect” hesays. Allcontinents otherthan Whatwewillsee,particularly 2 Antarctica willsearisefn such infuropeandNorthamertc, conditions Forexample, with isanenormousincreaseinthe 2 1"Cofwarming-alevelalready incidence oftheseheatwaves passed-only 3 percent of weather astheworld warms by between Stations in Europeatelikely to pass 1s'Cand2’C, hesays. Thismessurereflectsthe fact Tourstsseekshadeunder Vecelio's threshold more than Globalwarminglsalready that humidity affectsourabiliy to _ umbrellas as temperatures concein oo yeas. With warmingot sparking moreintenseandmore stay coolby sweating Atthiswet- it 4S°CinRomeon 18 july 2° 25percentarelikely to Inthe frequent heawaves,soiscausing bulb reading, wecan no longer US,20 pereentof stations arelikely largenumbersof fatalities. tis keepcorebodytemperaturein 35 degreelimitwas meantalways _ topassthe threshold morethan estimatedthatthere were 6,000 checknaturallyanditwillrise_asanupperlimit” says Huber. oncea century at of warming, heatrelateddeaths across Europe todeadlylevelsfwedor'ttake _Lastear, Daniel ecelioat__risingtoa8percentat2°¢ (Scence inthesummerof 2022 for action tostay coolinotherways.PennsyWvaniaState Universityand Advances, dolor/spsaq). instance. The vast majority Atpresent the wet bulb hiscolleauestested ghealthy “Sometimesthesehuman ofthese were people aged temperature very seldomexceeds youngwomenandmentosee survivability imitsareuseful ‘over 65 who may have had SVC (88°F anywhereon Earths howhotandhumiditcouldget _tounderstandithe problem, existinghealth issues, Surface. Huber'steam concluded beforetheirbodies wereunable _butthereality is that wesee a that largeareas wouldonlystart_—tostopthelrcoretemperature _significanthealth burden onthe i it toexceed the35'Cwet-bulblimit rising, thepointat which heat is populationevenat moderate’ ‘Survivat it ifthe world warmed by more ‘noncompensable”.Continued temperatures," says Dann Mitchell Could global warming result exposuretothese conditions for atthe University of Bristol, UK. inpartsoftheworldgettingso “A wet-bulb reading of several hourscan resultin death, “Usingathreshold-based hotthathealthy youngpeople anything between 31°C Thefindingssuggest the temperature can bemisleading ‘would die too? and 35°C is very much survivability imitisclosertoa _becauseeveniffit’s hot outside, it ‘Matthew Huber at Purdue in the danger zone” 31°C wet-bulb reading, although doesn’t mean that it’s hot inside. University Indiana, and his other factors wllaffetthisin "1 would ike to highlight teamsetouttoinvestigatethis _than7*C-whichisthoughtto realty. Becausethevolunteers _thatallheatelated impactson question in2010. Based on be highly unlikely. weren't aclimatisedtoheatand humanhealth andwell-beingare theory they decided thatthe However recent studiessuggest were doing everyday tasks during, preventable’ says Raquel Nunes limitofsurvivabiltyiswhen __thatpartsofthe tropics could ——_thetests,thisshouldbeseen asa __atthe University of Warwick, UK. thetemperaturemeasuredby _exceedthisimitatlowerlevelsof lowerlimit,witha3s"Cwel-bulbButwithheatwaves becoming thermometer covered ina ‘warming. What'smore in practice temperaturebeing the upper more frequent, more intenseand wetclothexceeds3s°C(9s"H. __mostpeoplecouldn'tsurvive limit, saysPowis. ‘more prolonged. urgent action Thisisthesoralledwet-bulb __anythingclosetoa wet-bulb “Anything between thosetwois _isneededto avoid moreheat temperature temperature of3s°C."Theoriginal very much inthedangerzone,"he _relateddeaths,she says. © S81 NewSclentst|16september2073