1-year ARM $61,134 $46,443 40161

3-year ARM 56901 51075 46721

30-year fixed 54568 54568 54568

1 2 3 4
Copies DemanProbability x x.p x x.p x x.p x x.p
1 0.4 1 0.4 0 0 -1 -0.4 -2 -0.8
2 0.3 1 0.3 2 0.6 1 0.3 0 0
3 0.2 1 0.2 2 0.4 3 0.6 2 0.4
4 0.1 1 0.1 2 0.2 3 0.3 4 0.4
1 1 1.2 0.8 0
 1 2 3 4
Copies Demanded Probability x Decision 1 x x.p x x.p x
1 0.4 1 0.4 0 0 0 0 -2
2 0.3 1 0 0 0 1 0.3 0
3 0.2 1 0.2 2 0.4 3 0.6 2
4 0.1 1 0.1 2 0.2 3 0.3 4
1 Decision 2 0.6 1.2
0
0 0

Decision 3
0
0 0 0

Decision 4
0
0 0

Decision 5
0
0 0
4
x.p
-0.8
0
0.4
0.4
0
ID PARENTTYPEROW COL LABEL VALUEPROP
1 6T 2 5 Decision 1 0 0.2
2 6T 7 5 Decision 2 0 0.2
3 6T 12 5 Decision 3 0 0.2
4 6T 17 5 Decision 4 0 0.2
5 6T 22 5 Decision 5 0 0.2
6 0D 12 1 Event 6 0 1
Demand Model 1 Revenue Profit Model 2 Revenue Profit Expected Profit
High 0.7 500,000 300,000 450,000 275,000 575,000
Low 0.3 160,000 -40,000 160,000 -15,000 -55,000

Model 1 Investment 200,000

Model 2 Investment 175,000 Total Expected Profit
386000
Model 1 Expected Profit 260,000
Model 2 Expected Profit 260,000
ected Profit
Demand Model 1 Revenue Profit Model 2 Revenue Profit
High 0.7 500,000 300,000 450,000 275,000
Low 0.3 160,000 -40,000 160,000 -15,000

Model 1 Investment 200,000

Model 2 Investment 175,000

Model 1 Expected Profit 260,000

Model 2 Expected Profit 260,000

198000
 0.7
High
300,000
Model 1 300000

198000 0.3
Low
-40,000
-40000

0.7
High
275,000
Model 2 275000

188000 0.3
Low
-15,000
-15000
ID PARENTTYPEROW COL LABEL VALUEPROP
1 3T 2 9 Event 1 0 0.5
2 3T 7 9 Event 2 0 0.5
3 7E 4 5 Decision 1 0 0.5
4 6T 12 9 Event 4 0 0.5
5 6T 17 9 Event 5 0 0.5
6 7E 14 5 Decision 2 0 0.5
7 0D 9 1 1