Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
Basic Model
• Model of Example #5
– Household preferences:
∞
à !
X Nt1+ϕ
t
E0 β { u (Ct) − exp (τ t) , u (Ct) ≡ log Ct
t=0
1 + ϕ
– Aggregate resources and household intertemporal optimization:
Rt
Yt = p∗t AtNt, uc,t = βEtuc,t+1
π̄ t+1
– Law of motion of price distortion:
⎛ Ã ! ε−1
ε
⎞−1
ε−1 ε
1 − θ (π̄ t ) θπ̄
pt = ⎝(1 − θ)
∗
+ ∗t⎠ . (1)
1−θ pt−1
2
Basic Model ...
1 + Etπ̄ ε−1
t+1 βθFt+1 = Ft (2)
∙ ε−1 ¸ 1−ε
1
1− θπ̄ t
Ft = Kt (3)
1−θ
= intermediate good firm marginal cost
z }| {
=Wt
Pt by household optimization
z }| ϕ{
ε exp (τ t) Nt 1 − ψ + ψRt
(1 − ν t) + Etβθπ̄ εt+1Kt+1
ε−1 uc,t At
= Kt (4)
3
Extension to Small Open Economy
• Outline
– the equilibrium conditions of the open economy model
∗ system jumps from 5-6 equations in basic model to 16 equations in 16
variables!
∗ additional variables:
rate of depreciation, exports, real foreign assets, terms of trade, real exchange rate, respectively
z }| {
f x
st, xt, at , pt , qt ,
price of domestic consumption (now, c is a composite of domestically produced goods and imports)
z}|{
pct ,
price of imports consumption price inflation
z}|{
m,c
z}|{
pt , π ct ,
reduced form object to (i) achieve technical objective, (ii) correct a fundamental failing of open economy models
z}|{
Φt ,
closed economy variables
z }| {∗
Rt, π̄ t, Nt, ct, Kt, Ft, pt .
4
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
– the ‘uncovered interest parity puzzle’, and the role of Φt in addressing the
puzzle.
5
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
– unchanged:
∗ household preferences
∗ production of (domestic) homogeneous good, Yt (= Atp∗t Nt)
∗ three Calvo price friction equations
– changes:
∗ household budget constraint includes opportunity to acquire foreign
assets/liabilities.
∗ intertemporal Euler equation changed as a reduced form accommodation
of evidence on uncovered interest parity.
∗ Yt = Ct no longer true.
∗ introduce exports, imports, current account.
∗ exchange rate,
domestic money
St = domestic currency price of one unit of foreign currency = foreign money
.
6
Homogeneous Final
Domestic Good Consumption
Foreign
Homogeneous
good
Intermediate
Good Producers
Exporters
where (could also add exchange rate, real exchange rate and other things):
π̄ c ~target consumer price inflation
εR,t ~iid, mean zero monetary policy shock
yt ~Yt/At
Rt ~‘risk free’ nominal rate of interest
– Svensson-style policy that solves Ramsey problem with the following
preferences:
X∞ ³ h i´2 µ µ ¶¶2
j c c c c c 4 yt
Et β { 100 π t π t−1π t−2π t−3 − (π̄ t ) + λy 100 log
j=0
y
2 ¡ ¢2
+λ∆R (400 [Rt − Rt−1]) + λs St − S̄ }
– straight Ramsey policy that maximizes domestic social welfare.
8
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• Domestic bonds
Bt ~beginning of period t stock of loans
Rt ~rate of return on bonds
• Foreign assets
Aft ~beginning-of-period t net stock of foreign assets
(liabilities, if negative) held by domestic residents.
ΦtRtf ~rate of return on Aft
Φt ~premium on foreign asset returns, over foreign risk free rate, Rtf
9
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
10
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
1 Rt
= βEt c
PtcCt Pt+1Ct+1
– after scaling:
1 Rt
= βEt c . (7)
ct π t+1ct+1 exp (∆at+1)
11
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
12
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
or,
f
St Pt
f ³ ´ real exchange rate ≡ Pc ³ ´
c
P S
t t tP z}|{ t
pm,c
t = c 1 − ψ f
+ ψ f f
Rt = pc
t qt f
1 − ψ f + ψ f Rt .
Pt Pt
(9)
" # 1−η1
1−η c
Ptc Ptpct (1 − ωc) + ωc (pm,c
t )
c
13
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• Exports, Xt
– foreign demand for exports
à !−ηf
Ptx f x −η f f
Xt = Y t = (pt ) Yt (11)
Ptf
Ytf ~foreign output, Ptf ~price of foreign good, Ptx ˜ price of export
– Xt is produced one-for-one using the domestic homogeneous good by a
representative, competitive producer. Equating price, StPtx, to marginal
cost:
StPtx = Pt (ν xRt + 1 − ν x) ,
where ν x = 1 if all inputs must be financed in advance. Rewriting
qtpxtpct = ν xRt + 1 − ν x, (12)
where
real exchange rate f terms of trade
z}|{
z}|{ StPt x Ptx
qt ≡ c , pt = f
Pt Pt
qt π ft St
= st c , st = . (13)
qt−1 πt St−1
14
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
15
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• Current Account
– equality of international demand and supply for currency:
currency flowing out of the country
z }| {
acquisition of new net foreign assets, in domestic currency units
z }| {
StAft+1 + expenses on importst
16
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
µ ¶ηc f f
pct st R Φt−1 a
aft + pm,c
t ωc ct = pctqtpxtxt + t−1 t−1
, (15)
pm,c
t π̄ t exp (∆at)
f
St A
aft = t+1
PtAt
17
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• ‘Risk’ adjustments
³ ´
f f
Φt = Φ at , Rt , Rt, φ̃t = (16)
³ ³ ´ ³ ¡ ¢´ ´
exp −φ̃a aft − ā − φ̃s Rtf − Rt − Rf − R + φ̃t
φ̃a > 0, small and not important for dynamics
φ̃s > 0, important
φ̃t ~mean zero, iid.
• Discussion of φ̃a.
– φ̃a > 0 implies (i) if aft > ā, then return on foreign assets low and aft ↓; (ii)
if aft < ā, then return on foreign assets high and aft ↑
– implication: φ̃a > 0 is a force that drives aft → ā in steady state,
independent of initial conditions.
– logic is same as reason why steady state stock of capital in neoclassical
growth model is unique, independent of initial conditions.
– in practice, φ̃a is tiny, so that its only effect is to pin down aft in steady state
and not affect dynamics (see Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe).
18
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• Discussion of φ̃t
• Discussion of φ̃s.
– to better explain this, it is convenient to first solve for the model’s steady
state.
19
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• Steady state
Rf
1 = β f (19)
π
Ptf
π ft ≡ f
(exogenous)
Pt−1
20
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
– Taylor rule:
π c = π̄ c (central bank’s inflation target). (20)
– from (10):
c Pt
π = π̄ ≡ . (21)
Pt−1
– using price friction equilibrium conditions:
1−θπ̄ ε
1−θ
p∗ = ³ ε−1
ε , (no distortion if π̄ = 1, )
´ ε−1 (22)
1−θ(π̄)
1−θ
1 ε−1
F = ε−1
, (don’t allow π̄ βθ < 1) (23)
1 − βθπ̄
ε ϕ+1 ∗
ε−1 (1 − ν) exp (τ ) N p (1 − ψ + ψR) ε
K = , (βθπ̄ < 1) (24)
1 − βθπ̄ ε
∙ ¸1
ε−1 1−ε
1 − θπ̄
K = F . (25)
1−θ
21
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
22
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
23
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
pm,c = ϕ̃Rν,∗
x Rx
p = ,
ϕ̃
h i 1−η1
pc = (1 − ωc) + ω c (pm,c)1−ηc
c
ϕ̃
q = c.
p
– solve the resource constraint, (29), for c in terms of x :
c x sRf af
p qp x + π̄ − af
c= ¡ ¢ ³ ´ηc .
pc
p q 1 − ψf + ψ R
c f f
ωc pm,c
24
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
– use the latter to substitute out for c in the current account, (30):
µ ¶ηc f f
f c
¡ f f f
¢ pc pcqpxx + sRπ̄ a − af
a + p q 1 − ψ + ψ R ωc
pm,c ¡ f f
¢ ³ pc ´ηc
pcq 1 − ψ + ψ Rf ωc pm,c
f f
c x sR a
= p qp x + ,
π̄
25
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
Rt − st+1Rtf Φt dRt 1 h f f f
i
d c = c
− c
sR dΦt + sdRt + R dst+1
ct+1π t+1 exp (∆at+1) cπ cπ
R − sRf c
− 2 d [ct+1 π t+1 exp (∆at+1)] ,
c
[cπ ]
so that, taking into account (33), (34) is, to a first approximation:
xt − x
R̂t = Etŝt+1 + R̂tf + Φ̂t, x̂t = log (xt) − log (x) = .
x
26
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
– Note:
¡ f¢
R̂t = log Rt − log (R) ' rt − log R, R̂tf = log Rtf − log R ' rtf − log Rf
Rt ≡ 1 + rt, Rtf ≡ 1 + rtf ,
so that:
It follows from:
µ ¶
R
log (R) − log s − log Rf = log = 0,
sRf
that
rt = Et log St+1 − log St + rtf + Φ̂t (35)
³ ´ ³ ¡ f ¢´
f f
Φ̂t = log Φt = −φ̃a at − ā − φ̃s rt − rt − r − r + φ̃t
which is our log-linear expansion of (34).
27
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
∗ Consider the standard ‘UIP regression’ (φ̃a ' 0, φ̃t = 0), involving risk
free rate differentials: ³ ´
f
log St+1 − log St = α + β rt − rt + ut.
∗ Substitute out for log St+1 − log St from (35) and make use of the
fact that a (rational expectations) forecast error is orthogonal to date t
information, to obtain:
³ ´
cov log St+1 − log St, rt − rtf
β̂ = ³ ´ = 1 − φ̃s,
f
var rt − rt
28
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
∗ In data,
· data: rt ↑ after monetary policy shock → log St+j falls slowly for
j = 1, 2, 3, ... .
30
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• Model dynamics
– 16 equations: price setting, (1), (2),(3) and (4); monetary policy rule, (5);
household intertemporal Euler equations (6), (7); relative price equations
(13), (8), (9), (10), (12); aggregate resource condition, (14); current account,
(15); risk term, (16); demand for exports (11).
31
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
• Numerical examples
• Parameter values:
foreign and domestic inflation same no financial frictions small weight on aft in Φt
z }| { z }| { z }| {
π̄ c = π f = 1.005, ψ = ψ f = ν x = 0, φ̃a = 0.03 ,
prices unchanged on average for 1 year 1/ϕ Frisch elasticity
−1/4
z }| { z }| {
β = 1.03 , θ = 3/4 , ϕ=1 ,
subsidy extinguishes monopoly power in labor margin
modest elasticity of demand for domestic intermediate goods z }| {
z }| { ε−1
ε=6 , 1 − νt = ,
ε
elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign inputs in producing final consumption
z }| {
ηc = 5
roughly 60% of domestic final consumption is composed of domestic content share of g in y net foreign assets/y
z }| { z }| { z }| {
ωc = 0.4 , η g = 0.3 , ηa = 0 ,
elasticity of demand for exports as function of relative price paid by foreigners monetary policy rule parameters
z }| { z }| {
η f = 1.5 , ρR = 0.9, rπ = 1.5, ry = 0.15
32
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
−0.03
−0.04
−0.05
−0.06
−0.07
−0.08
−0.09
−0.1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
33
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
log, homogeneous output log, consumption domestic risk free rate (APR) log level, exchange rate
0
−0.07
−0.02 7
−0.05 −0.08
−0.04 6
−0.09
−0.1 −0.06 −0.1
5
0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
log, hours worked consumer price inflation (APR) log, real exchange rate real foreign assets
0 0 0
−0.02
−0.01
−0.05 −10 −0.04
−0.02
−0.06
−0.03
−0.1 −20 −0.08
0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
Note: (i) appreciation smaller, though a more drawn out, when φ̃s is big; (ii)
smaller appreciation results in smaller drop in net exports, so less of a drop in
demand, so less fall in output and inflation; (iii) smaller drop in net exports results
in smaller drop in real foreign assets.
34
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
log, hours worked consumer price inflation (APR)log, real exchange rate real foreign assets
0.04 0.2
0.06 0.03
0.04 0.02 0.15
0.02
0.02 0.01
0.1
0 0
0
0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
With the reduced interest in domestic assets, (i) the currency depreciates, (ii)
net exports rise, (iii) hours and output rise, (iv) the upward pressure on costs
associated with higher output leads to a rise in prices.
35
Extension to Small Open Economy ...
1 4.95 −4.5
−1
4.94 −5
0
−1.5
4.93 −5.5
−1
−2 4.92
−6
0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
−3
log, hours worked consumer
−3
price inflation (APR) log, real exchange rate
−4 −3
real foreign assets
x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10
1 0 −3
−0.5
−5 −4
0 −1
−5
−1.5 −10
−1 −6
−2 −15 −7
0 10 0 10 0 10 0 10
log, imports
log, terms of trade log, exports
−3 −3 −3
x 10 x 10 x 10
3 0
3
2 2
−2
1
1
0
−4
0
0 10 0 10 0 10
After a delay, the higher gt leads to a rise in output. However, there is so much
crowding out in the short run that output actually falls. There is crowding out of
net exports and consumption because of the effects created by a higher interest
rate. The higher interest rate directly reduces consumption, and by making
the currency appreciate, it produces a fall in net exports. The initial drop in
government spending in the wake of a rise in government spending is interesting.
36
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching
Frictions into Open Economy Model
• Change the interface between workers and intermediate good firms in the
domestic homogeneous goods sector.
37
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
• New setup:
– Each household has a large number of workers, and all are supplied
inelastically to market.
∗ No variation in labor force participation rate. Not a bad approximation,
at least for business cycle variation:
labor force participation rate and HP trend log, real gdp and HP trend
66
9
64
8.5
62
8
60
7.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
correlation, filtered log participation rate filtered log participation rate
with filtered log real gdp = 0.25908 filtered log real gdp
0.02
−0.02
−0.04
38
Homogeneous Final
Domestic Good Consumption
IIntermediate
t di t Foreign
Good Producers Homogeneous
good
Homogeneous
Labor Market
Employment
E l t
Employment Imported Export
Agency
Agency Input Retailers
Foreign
Household
ouse o d Buyers
Household Household
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
• Employment agencies:
– each agency has a large number of workers.
– 1 − ρ attached workers are randomly selected to separate and go into
unemployment.1
– new workers arrive from unemployment, in proportion to the number of
vacancies posted by the agency in previous period.
– wage paid by employment agency to workers determined.
– intensity of labor effort per worker, ς t, is set according to efficiency
criterion:
workers’ marginal cost of work
z⎡ }| ⎤{
marginal benefit to agency of worker σ ≡ PWAt ≡ Ct
z}|{ ⎢ ALς t L ⎥ scaling
z}|{ z}|{
t t A
σ L z}|{
t
Wt = ⎣ marginal utility of currency ⎦ → w̄t = ALς t ct
z}|{
υt
(36)
– agency or worker unhappy with the match can choose to terminate it at this
point.
1
The assumed constancy of job separation is consistent with the findings reported in Hall (2005b,c) and Shimer
(2005a,b), who report that the job separation rate is relatively acyclical.
40
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
42
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
43
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
– Note:
¡0 ¢
F lt , ω t = J (ω t) lt0
44
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
0
– First order
¡ 0 1−ι condition
¢ 1−ι with respect to ṽt (after multiplying the result by
ṽt Qt + ρ /Qt ):
¡ 0 1−ι ¢ 1−ι
0= −PtAtκṽt0 ṽt Qt + ρ /Qt
45
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
1
– First
¡ 1 order condition
¢ with respect to ṽt+1 (after multiplication by
ṽt+1Q1−ι 1−ι
t+1 + ρ /Qt+1 ):
46
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
¡ 0 1−ι ¢
– divide the last term by ṽt Qt + ρ and rearrange,
" á ¢2 !#
1 1
PtAtκ 0 υ t+1 ṽt+1 ṽt+1ρ
ṽt = β (Wt+1 − ωt) ς t+1 + Pt+1At+1κ + 1−ι
Q1−ι
t υ t 2 Qt+1
– to help understand latter first order condition, note:
47
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
µ j+1 2
¶
υt+j+1 ( ṽt+j+1) j+1
ṽt+j+1 ρ
= βEt+j υt+j [(Wt+j+1 − ω t) ς t+j+1 + Pt+j+1At+j+1κ 2 + Q1−ι
],
t+j+1
j = 0, ..., M − 2,
M−1 1
Pt+M−1At+M−1κṽt+M−1 Q1−ι
t+M −1
∙ µ ¶¸
¡ ¢ (ṽt+M )
0 2
0
ṽt+M ρ
= βEt+M−1 υυt+M
t+M
−1
Wt+M − W̃t+M ς t+M + Pt+M At+M κ 2 + Q1−ι t+M
48
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
vacancy decision by agencies that most recently bargained j periods in past, j=0,1,...,M−2
z}|{
Pt At κ
Q1−ι
× ṽtj
t µ j+1 2 ¶
¡ ¢ (ṽt+1 ) j+1
ṽt+1 ρ
= βEt υυt+1t [ Wt+1 − W̃t−j ς t+1 + Pt+1At+1κ 2 + Q1−ι
],
t+1
PtAtκṽtM−1 Q11−ι
t
∙ µ ¶¸
¡ ¢ (ṽt+1)
0 2
0
ṽt+1 ρ
= βEt υυt+1t Wt+1 − W̃t+1 ς t+1 + Pt+1At+1κ 2 + Q1−ι t+1
49
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
⎛³ ´2 ⎞
j+1
κ j ct ṽ
⎜ t+1
j+1
ṽt+1 ρ⎟
1−ι ṽt = βEt c [(w̄t+1 − Gt−j,j+1wt−j w̄t−j ) ς t+1 + κ ⎝
2
+ 1−ι ⎠].
Qt t+1 Qt+1
(39)
– for j = M − 1 :
" á ¢2
!#
0 0
1 ct ṽt+1 ṽt+1 ρ
κṽtM−1 = βEt (w̄t+1 − wt+1w̄t+1) ς t+1 + κ + 1−ι
Q1−ι
t ct+1 2 Qt+1
(40)
W̃t Wt
wt = , w̄t = .
Wt PtAt
52
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
J (ωt) .
53
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
• Expressions for scaled surplus and derivative of surplus with respect to wage
j
=0, by optimality of vt+j
M−1 z }| { j
dJ (ωt) ∂J (ω t) X ∂J (ωt) dvt+j
= + j
dωt ∂ωt j=0 ∂vt+j dω t
υ t+1 2 υ t+2
= −ς t − β ς t+1Ωt,1 − β ς t+2Ωt,2
υt υt
2 υ t+M−1
−... − β ς t+M−1Ωt,M−1.
υt
⎧
⎪
⎪ j−1 =growth
Y z
rate of stock of employees
¡ l }| ¢{
employment growth factor
z}|{ ⎨ 1−ι
Ωt,j ≡ ṽt+l Qt+l + ρ j>0 . (41)
⎪
⎪
⎩ l=0 1 j=0
54
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
– result:
dJ (ωt) υ t+1 2 υ t+2
= −ς t − β ς t+1Ωt,1 − β ς t+2Ωt,2
dωt υt υt
2 υ t+M−1
−... − β ς t+M−1Ωt,M−1,
υt
or,
κ ¡ 0¢2 0 ρ
J (ωt) = (Wt − ω t) ς t + PtAt ṽt + PtAtκṽt 1−ι
2 Qt
– scale by PtAt:
J (ωt) Wt − ωt κ ¡ 0¢2 ρ
JA,t ≡ = ςt + ṽt + κṽt0 1−ι
PtAt PtAt 2 Qt
or
κ ¡ 0¢2 0 ρ
JA,t = (w̄t − wtw̄t) ς t + ṽ + κṽt 1−ι (43)
2 t Qt
57
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
• The Worker
58
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
– scale by PtAt :
(44)
inflation and growth factor
i
z }| { ς 1+σ
t
L
ct ct i+1
VA,t = Gt−i,i wt−iw̄t−iς t − AL + βEt [ρVA,t+1 + (1 − ρ) UA,t+1]
1 + σL ct+1
i Vti Ut
VA,t ≡ , UA,t ≡ .
PtAt PtAt
59
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
– for Nash bargaining, it is useful to have the derivative of Vt0 with respect to
the wage rate negotiated at the start of period t by workers in agencies of
cohort i = 0.
60
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
unemployment compensation
z }| {u
Ut = PtAtb
prob of finding a job value function of worker that finds a job, before knowing what agency the job is in
υ t+1 z}|{ z}|{x
+βEt [ ft × Vt+1
υt
+ (1 − ft) Ut+1],
probability that a worker who finds a job, ends up in an agency that was in cohort i in t−1
z }| {
hiring rate
M−1
z }| {
X i
ṽt−1 Q1−ι l i
t−1 t−1
Vtx = × Vti+1 (46)
i=0
mt−1
job matches made by agencies in cohort j
total number of matches M−1
X z }| {
z}|{
mt = ṽtj Q1−ι
t lt
j
(47)
j=0
61
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
– scaling by PtAt :
u ct x
UA,t = b + βEt [ftVA,t+1 + (1 − ft) UA,t+1] (48)
ct+1
x Vtx Ut
VA,t ≡ , UA,t ≡ .
PtAt PtAt
– other labor market relations:
total hours worked M−1
z}|{ X
Nt = ςt ltj , (49)
j=0
total employment M−1
z}|{ X
Lt = ltj , (50)
j=0
worker job finding rate
z}|{ mt
ft = , (51)
1 − Lt
matching function
z }| { total vacancies
z}|{
M−1
X j mt
σ 1−σ
mt = σ m (1 − Lt) vt , vt = vt , Qt =
j=0
vt
63
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
⎛ ⎞(1−η)
surplus of firm, divided by lt0
z }| {
×⎝ J (ωt) ⎠
0
Vw,t Jw,t
η 0 + (1 − η) = 0, evaluated at ω t = W̃t. (52)
VA,t − UA,t JA,t
64
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
65
Introducing Labor Market Search and Matching Frictions into Open Economy Model ...
• extra equations and variables that have been introduced because of the search
and matching:
variable equation(s)
w̄t (36)
lti (37)
ṽti (39) , (40)
Jw,t (42)
JA,t (43)
i
VA,t (44)
0
Vw,t (45)
x
VA,t (46)
mt (47)
UA,t (48)
Qt (52)
ςt (49)
Lt (50)
ft (51)
66
Financial Frictions
• Financial frictions occur when the people who implement projects are different
from the people who have the surplus funds needed to finance those projects.
– borrower might report ‘bad outcomes’, and pocket the difference between
actual and reported outcomes.
∗ borrowers might put in little effort, and then claim ex post that ‘bad
outcomes’ were due to bad luck.
∗ borrowers may undertake excessively risky investments, in case losses
are bounded below and potential gains not bounded above.
67
Financial Frictions ...
• In RBC model, the household does the saving and also the investing. That
model abstracts completely from financial frictions.
• We will assume that households save, but they do not own or manage the
allocation of capital.
• First, we must describe the way capital is used in the model, and the technology
for accumulating capital.
69
Homogeneous Final
Domestic Good Consumption Foreign
Homogeneous
good
Exporters Foreign
Buyers
Entrepreneurs
Households
At end of period t:
Homogeneous 1. Entrepreneurs sell old capital to capital producers
Domestic Good and pay off debt.
2 Households lend funds to banks
2. banks.
3. Banks make loans to entrepreneurs, depending on
quantity of entrepreneurial net worth.
4. Entrepreneurs
p buyy new capital
p from capital
p
producers.
5. In t+1 entrepreneurs supply capital to rental market.
6. At end of t+1, go back to 1.
Entrepreneurs
Capital Producer
Banks
Households
Financial Frictions ...
– Previous specification:
Yi,t = AtNi,t.
– Now:
70
Financial Frictions ...
ε
Ktp = p
mct + Etβθπ̄εt+1Kt+1 , (55)
ε−1
where mct denotes marginal cost in domestic currency units/Pt (see
below for more).
71
Financial Frictions ...
where
72
Financial Frictions ...
1 Wt [1 − ψ + ψRt]
mct = τ dt
Pt (1 − α) (At)1−α (Ni,t)−α Ki,t
α
w̄t [1 − ψ + ψRt]
= τ dt ³ ´α (57)
kt
(1 − α) exp(∆a t )Nt
73
Financial Frictions ...
∙Z ¸ −1ε h i −1ε
1 ¡ ¢−ε
Pt∗ ≡ −ε
Pi,t di = (1 − θ) P̃t−ε + θ Pt−1
∗
0
∙Z 1 ¸ 1−ε
1
h i1
(1−ε) (1−ε) (1−ε) 1−ε
Pt ≡ Pi,t di = (1 − θ) P̃t + θPt−1
0
– Scale Kt+1 by At :
µ ¶α
kt Yt Kt At
yt = p∗t (Nt)1−α , yt ≡ , kt ≡ , exp (∆at) = .
exp (∆at) At At−1 At−1
(58)
74
Financial Frictions ...
77
Financial Frictions ...
• Objective:
xt = (1 − δ) Kt.
78
Financial Frictions ...
static marginal cost of capital = price of investment ÷ marginal product of investment in producing new capital
z }| {
1
Pk0,t = ³ ´ ³ ´
It It It
1 − S̃ It−1 − S̃ 0 It−1 It−1
1 υ t+1Pt+1
− ³ ´ ³ ´ βEt
1 − S̃ It
− S̃ 0 It It υ tPt
It−1 It−1 It−1
>0 if planning It+1 /It >1, so that It ↑ saves on t+1 adjustment costs
z µ }| ¶ µ ¶{2
It+1 It+1
× Pk0,t+1S̃ 0
It It
79
Financial Frictions ...
µ ¶
It
Kt+1 = (1 − δ) Kt + κ Kt, κ0 > 0, κ00 < 0.
Kt
1
P k 0 ,t = ³ ´
It
κ0 Kt
80
Financial Frictions ...
1
Pk0,t = ³ ´ ³ ´
it exp(∆at ) it exp(∆at ) it exp(∆at )
1 − S̃ it−1 − S̃ 0 it−1 it−1
1
− ³ ´ ³ ´ (60)
it exp(∆at ) it exp(∆at ) it exp(∆at )
1 − S̃ it−1 − S̃ 0 it−1 it−1
µ ¶µ ¶2
ct it+1 exp (∆at+1) it+1 exp (∆at+1)
× βEt Pk0,t+1S̃ 0
exp (∆at+1) ct+1 it it
81
Financial Frictions ...
• Entrepreneurs
– the only people who can own and allocate (rent out) the economy’s capital
stock.
– find it profitable to own more capital than they can afford (they borrow from
banks).
82
Financial Frictions ...
N N
Kt+1 → Kt+1 ω, ω ~iid cdf Ft (ω)
∗ Entrepreneur sees ω, bank must pay a ‘monitoring cost’ to see it. Profit
sharing too expensive for banks.
∗ Good arrangement:
· The bank only monitors the (bankrupt) entrepreneurs who say they
cannot pay the stipulated interest rate.
84
Financial Frictions ...
– Period t + 1 :
∗ entrepreneur who purchased one unit of capital in t earns:
z rent
}| { zsale of undepreciated
}|
capital
{ average return on capital
k
Pt+1rt+1ω + (1 − δ)Pt+1Pk0,t+1ω z}|{
k
≡ Rt+1 × ω.
PtPk0,t
∗ resources available to N−type entrepreneur with shock, ω, for paying
back debt:
k N
PtPk0,tRt+1 ωKt+1
∗ cutoff idiosyncratic shock, ω̄N t+1:
N
N 1 Bt+1
ω̄t+1 = Zt+1 k N
Rt+1 PtPk0,tKt+1
ω < ω̄ N
t −→ N − type entrepreneur declares bankruptcy,
is monitored, and hands over everything to bank
k N
(monitoring cost, μRt+1 ωPtPk0,tKt+1 , is paid by bank)
ω ≥ ω̄ N
t → pays interest to bank, and is not bankrupt.
85
Financial Frictions ...
• Banks
– zero profit condition for each type of entrepreneur:
money owed by banks to households, not contingent on t+1 shocks (Fisher deflation)
z }| {
N
= RtBt+1 .
– the only source of funds available for banks to repay debt in t + 1 is assumed
to be their receipts from entrepreneurs.
87
Financial Frictions ...
N N
– substitute out for Zt+1 Bt+1 in zero profit condition:
( Z )
£ ¡ ¢¤ ω̄N
t+1
N
RtBt+1 = 1 − Ft ω̄N
t+1 ω̄N
t+1 + (1 − μ)
k
ωdFt (ω) Rt+1 N
PtPk0,tKt+1
0
⎡share of entrepreneurial earnings received by banks share of entrepreneurial earnings used up in monitoring⎤
z }| { z }| {
= ⎣ N
Γt(ω̄t+1) − μGt(ω̄N t+1)
⎦
entrepreneurial earnings
z }| {
k N
× Rt+1PtPk0,tKt+1
Z ω̄N
t+1 £ ¤
Gt(ω̄N
t+1) ≡ ωdFt(ω), Γt(ω̄ N
t+1 ) ≡ ω̄N
t+1 1 − Ft(ω̄t+1) + Gt(ω̄N
N
t+1 )
0
k
⇒model has (sensible) implication that shock which drives up Rt+1 ,
drives down bankruptcy rate
88
Financial Frictions ...
N N
∗ loan amount, Bt+1 , and interest rate, Zt+1
∗ or, equivalently, ω̄N
t+1 and t
N
89
Financial Frictions ...
90
Financial Frictions ...
£ N N
¤ Rtk N N
Γt−1(ω̄ t ) − μGt−1(ω̄t ) t−1 − t−1 + 1 = 0
Rt−1
⎧ ³£ ¤ ´⎫
⎪
⎨£ Γ0
(ω̄ N
) Γ (ω̄ N
) − μG (ω̄ N
)
k
Rt+1
− 1 ⎪
⎬
¤ R k
t+1 t t+1 t t+1 t t+1 R t
Et 1 − Γt(ω̄ N t+1 ) + 0 N 0 N
= 0.
⎪
⎩ Rt Γt(ω̄t+1) − μGt(ω̄t+1) ⎪
⎭
t k
Bt+1 = Nt+1 ( t − 1) , Zt+1 = Rt+1 ω̄t+1.
t −1
91
Financial Frictions ...
• One more equilibrium condition: law of motion for aggregate net worth.
92
Financial Frictions ...
– alternative representation of Vt
= Rtk Pt−1Pk0,t−1Kt
this represents earnings of banks, which must equal Bt Rt−1 =Rt−1 (Pt−1 P
k ,t−1 0 Kt −N̄t )
zµ }|
Z ω̄t ¶ {
− ω̄t [1 − Ft−1(ω̄t)] + (1 − μ) ωdFt−1(ω) Rtk Pt−1Pk0,t−1Kt
0
Z ω̄ t
−μ ωdFt−1(ω)Rtk Pt−1Pk0,t−1Kt
0
gross interest paid by entrepreneurs as a whole on their loans
z" R ω̄t }| #{
μ ωdFt−1(ω)Rtk Pt−1Pk0,t−1Kt
= Rtk Pt−1Pk0,t−1Kt − Rt−1 + 0
Bt.
Pt−1Pk0,t−1Kt − N̄t
93
Financial Frictions ...
– all entrepreneurs who pass into the next period receive a transfer, Wte
– scaling by PtAt :
Pk0,t−1kt
nt+1 = γ t [1 − Γt−1(ω̄ t)] Rtk + wte
π t exp (∆at)
N̄t+1 e Wte
nt+1 ≡ , w ≡ .
PtAt t PtAt
94
Financial Frictions ...
Pk0,t−1kt
nt+1 = γ t [1 − Γt−1(ω̄t)] Rtk + wte (61)
π t exp (∆at)
– zero profit condition for banks:
Rtk
[Γt−1(ω̄t) − μGt−1(ω̄t)] t−1 − t−1 +1=0 (62)
Rt−1
– optimality condition for entrepreneurial contract
⎧ ³ ´⎫
⎪
⎨ k Γ0
(ω̄ ) [Γ (ω̄ ) − μG (ω̄ )]
k
Rt+1
− 1 ⎪
⎬
Rt+1 t t+1 t t+1 t t+1 Rt
Et [1 − Γt(ω̄ t+1)] + 0 (ω̄ 0 (ω̄ = 0.
⎪
⎩ R t Γt t+1 ) − μGt t+1 ) ⎪
⎭
(63)
95
Financial Frictions ...
– modification to (14):
(1 − γ t) Vt.
– New impulses:
98
Financial Frictions ...
– New propagation:
∗ shock that drives down rental earnings or price of capital reduces net
worth and restricts ability of entrepreneurs to borrow.
99
Financial Frictions ...
100
Financial Frictions ...
rtk + (1 − δ)Pk0,t
Rtk = π̄ t (70)
Pk0,t−1
– cost minimization:
µ ¶1−α µ ¶α
1 1 ¡ k ¢α
d
mct = (1 − ν t) τ t rt (w̄t [1 − ψ + ψRt])1−α (71)
1−α α
d w̄t [1 − ψ + ψRt ]
mct = (1 − ν t) τ t ³ ´α (72)
kt
(1 − α) exp(∆at)Nt
101
Financial Frictions ...
µ µ ¶¶
1−δ exp (∆at) it
kt+1 = kt + 1 − S̃ it (76)
exp (∆at) it−1
– conditions related to entrepreneurs:
Pk0,t−1kt
nt+1 = γ t [1 − Γt−1(ω̄t)] Rtk + wte (77)
π̄ t exp (∆at)
½ ¾
Rtk Pk0,t−1kt
0 = [Γt−1(ω̄t) − μGt−1(ω̄ t)] −1 +1 (78)
⎧ Rt−1 n t
³ ´⎫
⎪
⎨ k Γ0
(ω̄ ) [Γ (ω̄ ) − μG (ω̄ )]
k
Rt+1
− 1 ⎪
⎬
Rt+1 t t+1 t t+1 t t+1 Rt
0 = Et [1 − Γt(ω̄ t+1)] + 0 (ω̄ 0 (ω̄ (79)
⎪
⎩ R t Γt t+1 ) − μGt t+1 ) ⎪
⎭
102
Financial Frictions ...
– 10 remaining equations:
– 25 variables:
st, ct, πct, pct, pm,c
t , qt , π̄ t , px f
t , at , xt , nt+1 , R k
t , Pk0 ,t ,
kt+1, ω̄ t, Nt, it, p∗t , Ktp, Ftp, mct, rtk , w̄t, yt, Rt
– shocks:
103
Financial Frictions ...
g = η g y, ā = ηay,
∗ from (65),
ε
ε−1 mc
Kp =
1 − βθπ̄ ε
∗ combining this with (67),
∙ ε−1
¸ 1−ε
1
ε
∙ ε−1
¸ 1−ε
1
ε−1 p 1 − θπ̄ ε − 1 1 − βθπ̄ 1 − θπ̄
mc = F [1 − βθπ̄ ε] =
ε 1−θ ε 1 − βθπ̄ ε−1 1−θ
104
Financial Frictions ...
Rf R
=
πf πc
which can be used to solve for Rf given π f .
sRf Φ = R,
or after multiplication by π f and rearranging,
Rf R f
Φ = , so (see (32)) Φ = 1 and at = ā (see (16))
πf πc
105
Financial Frictions ...
Pk0 = 1.
– set
ϕ̃ = pcq.
– use (27), (28), (26):
pm,c = ϕ̃Rν,∗
x
R
px = ,
ϕ̃
h i 1−η1
1−η
pc = (1 − ωc) + ω c (pm,c) c
c
ϕ̃
q = c.
p
106
Financial Frictions ...
n, c, w̄, k, N, y, x, i, ω̄, rk , Rk
k
¡ k ¢
(1)R = π̄ r + 1 − δ
µ ¶α
k
(2)y = p∗ (N)1−α
∙ exp¸ (∆a)
1−δ
(3)i = 1− k
exp (∆a)
(4)w̄ = exp (τ ) N ϕc
³ c ´ηc
f m,c p sRf af
a + p ω c pm,c c − π̄ exp(∆a)
(5)x =
pcqpx
k k
(6)n = γ [1 − Γ(ω̄)] R + we,
π̄ exp (∆a)
107
Financial Frictions ...
µ ¶1−α µ ¶α
1 1 ¡ k ¢α
(7)mc = (1 − ν) τ d
r (w̄ [1 − ψ + ψR])1−α
1−α α
w̄ [1 − ψ + ψR]
(8)mc = (1 − ν) τ d ³ ´α
k
(1 − α) exp(∆a)N
c ηc μG(ω̄)Rk k
(1 − ωc) (p ) c + x + i + π̄ exp(∆a)
(9)y =
1 − ηg
µ k
¶
R k
(10)0 = [Γ(ω̄) − μG(ω̄)] −1 +1
R ³ n ´
k
0 R
Rk Γ (ω̄) [Γ(ω̄) − μG(ω̄)] R − 1
(11)0 = [1 − Γ(ω̄)] +
R Γ0(ω̄) − μG0(ω̄)
– to solve these 11 equations, fix rk . Compute Rk using (1). Solve for ω̄ using
(11). Solve for k/n using (10). Solve for n, k by rewriting (6):
we
n= k/n
.
k
1 − γ [1 − Γ(ω̄)] R π̄ exp(∆a)
108
Financial Frictions ...
mc
w̄ = ¡ 1 ¢1−α ¡ 1 ¢α α 1−α
.
(1 − ν) τ d 1−α α (rk ) (1 − ψ + ψR)
Solve for N by rewriting (8):
∙ ¸− α1
k d w̄ [1 − ψ + ψR]
N= (1 − ν) τ
exp (∆a) (1 − α) mc
Solve for y using (2). Substitute out for x in (9) using (5). Solve the
resulting version of (9) for c :
¡ ¢ af − π̄ sR
f af
exp(∆a) μG(ω̄)Rk k
1 − η g y + pcqpx − i − π̄ exp(∆a)
c= pc ηc
pm,c ω
( )
(1 − ω c) (pc)ηc +
c pm,c
pc qpx
Adjust rk until (4) is satisfied.
109
Financial Frictions ...
x = (px)−ηf y f .
– alternatively, one could simply fix ϕ̃ and let the previous equation define y f .
110
Financial Frictions ...
111