Probability: Introduction to Basics of Probability Theory Probability simply talks about how

likely is the event to occur, and its value always lies between 0 and 1 (inclusive of 0 and 1).
For example: consider that you have two bags, named A and B, each containing 10 red balls and
10 black balls. If you randomly pick up the ball from any bag (without looking in the bag), you
surely don’t know which ball you’re going to pick up. So here is the need of probability where
we find how likely you’re going to pick up either a black or a red ball. Note that we’ll be
denoting probability as P from now on. P(X) means the probability for an event X to occur.
P (Red ball) = P (Bag A). P (Red ball | Bag A) + P (Bag B). P (Red ball | Bag B), this equation finds
the probability of the red ball. Here I have introduced the concept of conditional probability
( which finds probability when we’re provided with the condition). P(Bag A) = 1/2 because
we’ve 2 bags out which we’ve to select Bag A. P(Red ball | Bag A) should read as “probability of
drawing a red ball given the bag A” here “given” word specifies the condition which is Bag A in
this case, so it is 10 red balls out of 20 balls i.e. 10/20. So let’s solve:
P(Red Ball)= 1/2. 10/20 + 1/2. 10/20 = 1/2
Similarly, you can try to find the probability of drawing a black ball? Also, find the probability of
drawing two consecutive red balls from the bag after transferring one black ball from bag A to
Bag B?

Now if you look above, you must be thinking what is it? I haven’t introduced the “intersection”
in Set Theory. I have already discussed the concept above, there is nothing new in the image
given above. Here we’re finding the probability for an event A to occur given that event B has
already occurred. The numerator of the right-hand side of the equation is the probability for
both events to occur, divided by the probability for an event B to occur. The numerator has an
inverted shape symbol between A and B which we call “Intersection” in set theory.
Probability of an Event:
What are Events in Probability?
A probability event can be defined as a set of outcomes of an experiment. In other words, an
event in probability is the subset of the respective sample space. So, what is sample space? The
entire possible set of outcomes of a random experiment is the sample space or the individual
space of that experiment. The likelihood of occurrence of an event is known as probability. The
probability of occurrence of any event lies between 0 and 1.

Events in Probability The sample space for the tossing of three coins simultaneously is given by:
S = {(T , T , T) , (T , T , H) , (T , H , T) , (T , H , H ) , (H , T , T ) , (H , T , H) , (H , H, T) ,(H , H , H)}
Suppose, if we want to find only the outcomes which have at least two heads; then the set of all
such possibilities can be given as: E = { (H , T , H) , (H , H ,T) , (H , H ,H) , (T , H , H)} Thus, an event
is a subset of the sample space, i.e., E is a subset of S. There could be a lot of events associated
with a given sample space. For any event to occur, the outcome of the experiment must be an
element of the set of event E.
Types of Events in Probability: Some of the important probability events are:

 Impossible and Sure Events: If the probability of occurrence of an event is 0, such an event is
called an impossible event and if the probability of occurrence of an event is 1, it is called a sure
event. In other words, the empty set ϕ is an impossible event and the sample space S is a sure
event.

 Simple Events: Any event consisting of a single point of the sample space is known as a simple
event in probability. For example, if S = {56, 78,96,54,89} and E = {78} then E is a simple event.

 Compound Events: if any event consists of more than one single point of the sample space
then such an event is called a compound event. Considering the same example again,
if S = {56 ,78 ,96 ,54 ,89}, E1 = {56 ,54 }, E2 = {78 ,56 ,89 } then, E1 and E2 represent two
compound events.
 Independent and Dependent Events: If the occurrence of any event is completely unaffected
by the occurrence of any other event, such events are known as an independent event in
probability and the events which are affected by other events are known as dependent events.

 Mutually Exclusive Events: If the occurrence of one event excludes the occurrence of another
event, such events are mutually exclusive events

 Exhaustive Events: A set of events is called exhaustive if all the events together consume the
entire sample space.

 Complementary Events: For any event E1 there exists another event E1‘ which represents the
remaining elements of the sample space S.

 Events Associated with “OR”: If two events E1 and E2 are associated with OR then it means
that either E1 or E2 or both. The union symbol (∪) is used to represent OR in probability.

 Events Associated with “AND”: If two events E1 and E2 are associated with AND then it means
the intersection of elements which is common to both the events. The intersection symbol (∩)
is used to represent AND in probability.

 Event E1 but not E2: It represents the difference between both the events. Event E1 but not
E2 represents all the outcomes which are present in E1 but not in E2. Thus, the event E1 but not
E2 is represented as E1, E2 = E1 – E2

Counting Rules: Counting Rules When selecting elements of a set, the number of possible
outcomes depends on the conditions under which the selection has taken place. There are at
least 4 rules to count the number of possible outcomes:
Multiplicative rule: According to the multiplication rule of probability, the probability of
occurrence of both the events A and B is equal to the product of the probability of B occurring
and the conditional probability that event A occurring given that event B occurs.

If A and B are dependent events, then the probability of both events occurring simultaneously is
given by:

P (A ∩ B) = P(B). P(A|B)

If A and B are two independent events in an experiment, then the probability of both events
occurring simultaneously is given by:

P (A ∩ B) = P(A). P(B)
Permutation rule The arrangement of elements in a distinct order is called permutation. Given
a single set of n distinctively different elements, you wish to select k elements from the n and
arrange them within k positions. The number of different permutations of the n elements taken
k at a time is denoted Pk n and is equal to.

Partitions rule Suppose a single set of n distinctively different elements exists. You wish to
partition them into k sets, with the first set containing n1 elements, the second containing n2
elements, ..., and the kth set containing nk elements. The number of different partitions is,

where n1 + n2 + ...+ nk =n.

The numerator gives the permutations of the n elements. The terms in the denominator
remove the duplicates due to the same assignments in the k sets (multinomial coefficients).
Combinations rule A sample of k elements is to be chosen from a set of n elements. The
number of different samples of k samples that can be selected from n is equal to.

Event Relational: Introduction Being a classical concept in probability theory, conditional

probability is one of the prominent approaches to measuring the probability of occurrence of
an event, provided that another event has occurred.
First, let’s catch a quick introduction to the concept of probability.

 Can we measure the chances that something will happen?

 How likely that an event will occur?

When we say that there are “20% chances”, we are quantifying some events and use words like
impossible, unlikely, even like, likely, and certain to measure the probability.
Probability is simply the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. And, in the form of a
number, the probability is from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). The sum of all probabilities of all
the events in a sample space is equal to 1.
For example, the probability of event A is the sum of the probabilities of all the sample points in
event A and denoted by P(A).
Probability’s journey from 0 to 1, Source
Now, consider the example to know the essence of conditional probability, a fair die is rolled,
the probability that it shows “4” is 1/6, it is an unconditional probability, but the probability
that it shows “4” with the condition that it comes with even number, is 1/3, this is a conditional
probability. Let's understand the concept more deeply.

Conditional Probability Typically, the conditional probability of the event is the probability
that the event will occur, provided the information that an event A has already occurred. This
probability can be written as P(B|A), notation signifies the probability of B given A.
In other words, conditional probability is the probability that an event has occurred, taking into
account some additional information about the outcomes of an experiment.
Mathematically, if the events A and B are not independent events, then the probability of the
interaction of A and B (the probability of occurrence of both events) is then given by:
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B|A),
Or it can be written as; P(A⋂ B)= P(A)P(B|A),
And, from this definition, the conditional probability P(B|A) can be defined as:
P(B|A)= P(A and B)|P(A)
Venn diagram for Conditional Probability, P(B|A)
Or, simply;
P(B|A)= P(A⋂ B)P(A), as long as P(A)> 0

Watch yt for conditional probability.