2016 Indian Banknote Demonetisation

2016 Indian banknote demonetisation
On 8 November 2016, the Government of India announced the

demonetisation of all ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes of the Mahatma 2016 Indian banknote
Gandhi Series. It also announced the issuance of new ₹500 and demonetisation
₹2,000 banknotes in exchange for the demonetised banknotes.[1]
Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed that the action would curtail
the shadow economy and reduce the use of illicit and counterfeit
cash to fund illegal activity and terrorism.[2][3]
The announcement of demonetisation was followed by prolonged

cash shortages in the weeks that followed, which created significant
disruption throughout the economy.[4][5][6][7][8][9] People seeking to
exchange their banknotes had to stand in lengthy queues, and
several deaths were linked to the rush to exchange cash.[10][11]
Queues outside a bank to exchange
According to a 2018 report from the Reserve Bank of India, demonetised banknotes in Kolkata on
approximately 99.3% of the demonetised banknotes, or 10 November 2016
₹15.30 lakh crore (15.3 trillion) of the ₹15.41 lakh crore that had Date 8 November 2016
been demonetised, were deposited with the banking system. But the
banknotes that were not deposited were worth ₹10,720 crore (107.2 Time 20:15 IST (14:45 UTC)
billion),[12] leading analysts to state that the effort had failed to Location India
remove black money from the economy.[13][14] The BSE SENSEX
and NIFTY 50 stock indices fell over 6 percent on the day after the announcement.[15] The move reduced the
country's industrial production and its GDP growth rate.[16]
Initially, the move received support from several bankers as well as from some international commentators.
The move was also criticised as poorly planned and unfair, and was met with protests, litigation, and strikes
against the government in several places across India. Debates also took place concerning the move in both
houses of Parliament.[17][18][19][20]
Contents
Background
Demonetisation process
Preparation and announcement
Information leaks
Cash exchange and withdrawal
Ordinance and Acts
Objectives and outcomes
Black money
Evasion
Counterfeit banknotes
Tax collection
Digital payments
Banknotes in circulation
Terrorism and internal security
Other effects
Shortage of cash
Transport
Stock market
Industrial output
Agriculture
Real GDP growth rate
Employment
Cost to banks
Welfare schemes
Deaths
Legal issues
Reactions
Reactions of economists
Reactions of industrialists
Political reactions
International reactions
Political impact
Long term impact
In popular culture
See also
References
External links
Background
The Indian government had demonetised banknotes on two prior occasions—once in 1946 and once in 1978
—and in both cases, the goal was to combat tax evasion via "black money" held outside the formal economic
system.[21] In 1978, the Janata Party coalition government demonetised banknotes of ₹1,000, ₹5,000 and
₹10,000, again in the hopes of curbing counterfeit money and black money.[22]
In 2012, the Central Board of Direct Taxes recommended against demonetisation, saying in a report that
"demonetisation may not be a solution for tackling black money or shadow economy, which is largely held in
the form of benami properties, bullion and jewelry."[23][24] According to data from income tax probes, black
money holders kept only 6% or less of their wealth as cash, suggesting that targeting this cash would not be a
successful strategy.[25]
Demonetisation process
Preparation and announcement

The plan to demonetise the ₹500 and
₹1,000 banknotes was initiated
between six and ten months before it
was a report by the State Bank of
India (SBI) analysed possible
strategies and effects of
demonetisation. [26] In May 2016, the
Reserve Bank of India had started
preparing for new banknotes and
confirmed the design of ₹2,000
banknotes in August 2016. The
printing of new banknotes started in
October when the news stories of
forthcoming new banknotes
appeared in the media. [27][28][29] On
27 October 2016, the Hindi daily
Dainik Jagran published a report
quoting RBI sources speaking of the
Demonetised ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series
forthcoming of ₹2,000 banknotes
alongside withdrawal of ₹500 and
₹1,000 banknotes.[30][31] On 21
October 2016, The Hindu Business Line had also published a report on the forthcoming ₹2,000 banknote.[32]
The Union cabinet was informed about the plan on 8 November 2016 in a meeting in the evening called by
the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.[33] Soon after the meeting, Modi announced the demonetisation in
an unscheduled live national televised address at 20:15 IST.[34][35] He declared circulation of all ₹500 and
₹1,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series as invalid effective from the midnight of the same day, and
announced the issuance of new ₹500 and ₹2,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi New Series in exchange
for the demonetised banknotes.[36]
Information leaks
In an interview of prominent businessmen 'allegedly' claimed after the announcement of demonetisation that
they had received prior tip-offs and rumours warning of the move and after seeing leaked photos of new
₹2,000 notes "knew what was coming", allowing them to gambit their money by converting into smaller
denominations.[37] A BJP MLA from Rajasthan, Bhawani Singh Rajawat, casually claimed in a video that
wealthy businessmen were informed about the demonetisation before it occurred. He later denied making the
comments.[38][39]
Cash exchange and withdrawal
The Reserve Bank of India stipulated that the demonetised banknotes could be deposited with banks over a
period of fifty days until 30 December 2016. The banknotes could also be exchanged for legal tender over the
counter at all banks. The limit for such exchange was ₹4,000 per person from 8 to 13 November, was
increased to ₹4,500 from 14 to 17 November, and reduced to ₹2,000 from 18 to 25 November.[1][40][41][42]
The exchange of banknotes was stopped completely on 25 November, although the government had
previously stated that the volume of exchange would be increased after that date.[43] International airports also
facilitated an exchange of banknotes for foreign tourists and out-bound travellers, amounting to a total value of
₹5,000 per person.[44] Fuel pumps, government hospitals, railway
and airline booking counters, state-government recognised dairies and
ration stores, and crematoriums were allowed to accept the
demonetised banknotes until 2 December 2016.[45]
Cash withdrawals from bank accounts were restricted to ₹10,000 per

day and ₹20,000 per week per account from 10 to 13 November.[1]
This limit was increased to ₹24,000 per week from 14 November People gathered at ATM of Axis
2016.[40][41] Limits on cash withdrawals from Current accounts/ Cash Bank on 16 November 2016 in
credit accounts/ Overdraft accounts were withdrawn later. RBI Mehsana, Gujarat to withdraw cash
increased the withdrawal limit from Savings Bank account to ₹50,000 following deposit of demonetised
from the earlier ₹24,000 on 20 February 2017 and then on 13 March banknotes in bank.
2017, it removed all withdrawal limits from savings bank
accounts.[46]
A daily limit on withdrawals from ATMs was also imposed varying from ₹2,000 per day until 14
November,[47] and ₹2,500 per day until 31 December.[40][41] This limit was increased to ₹4,500 per day from
1 January,[48] and again to ₹10,000 from 16 January 2017.[46] From 17 November, families were allowed to
withdraw ₹250,000 for wedding expenses. Farmers were permitted to withdraw ₹25,000 per week against
crop loans.[42][49]
Ordinance and Acts
The Specified Bank Notes (Cessation of Liabilities) Ordinance, 2016 was issued on 28 December 2016,
ending the liability of the government for the demonetised banknotes. The ordinance also imposed fines on
people found carrying out transactions with them after 8 November 2016, or holding more than ten of them
after 30 December 2016. It provided for the exchange of the banknotes after 30 December for people who had
been outside India between 9 November and 30 December.[50][51] The Specified Bank Notes (Cessation of
Liabilities) Act, 2017 was notified on 1 March 2017, replacing the ordinance.[52]
Objectives and outcomes

The government said that the main objective of the exercise was curbing black money, which included income
which had not been reported and thus was untaxed; money gained through corruption, illegal goods sales and
illegal activities such as human trafficking; and counterfeit currency. Other stated objectives included
expanding the tax base and increasing the number of taxpayers; reducing the number of transactions carried
out by cash; reducing the finances available to terrorists and radical groups such as Maoists and Naxalites; and
integrating the formal and informal economies.[53][54][55][56][57]
Black money
The government estimated that ₹5 lakh crore, or approximately 20%, of the demonetised banknotes would be
permanently removed from circulation.[58] However, according to a 2018 report from the RBI, 99.3% of the
demonetised banknotes, or ₹15.30 lakh crore of the ₹15.41 lakh crore that had been demonetised, were
deposited with the banking system. The banknotes that were not deposited were worth ₹10,720 crore.[12]
Commentators concluded that the government failed in its aim of purging black money from the economy.[13]
Evasion
There were reports of people circumventing the restrictions imposed
on exchange transactions by conducting multiple transactions at
different bank branches, and by sending hired people, employees, and
followers in groups to exchange large amounts of demonetised
banknotes at banks.[59][60] In Gujarat, Delhi and many other major
cities, sales of gold increased post-demonetisation, surging the price as
much as ₹45,000 (US$630) from the ruling price of ₹31,900
(US$450) per 10 grams (0.35 oz).[61][62] The Enforcement A jewellery store in a shopping mall
Directorate raided several forex establishments making backdated with a notice "We accept ₹500 and
entries.[63] Money laundering using backdated accounting was carried ₹1,000 notes", even after they were
out by co-operative banks,[64] jewellers,[65] sellers of mobile no longer valid banknotes.
phones,[66] and several other businesses.[67]
The cash deposited into hundis (cash collection boxes in temples and gurudwaras) are exempted from inquiry
by the tax department; this is sometimes to launder money.[68][69] After the demonetisation, there was a spike
in donations in the form of the demonetised banknotes in temples.[70][71][72][73] People booked large numbers
of railway tickets to dispose of unaccounted cash. This came to the notice of the Indian Railways authorities,
who imposed restrictions to check evasion.[74][75]
Counterfeit banknotes
Number of counterfeit banknotes detected in
After demonetisation, there was an increase in the number of banks (April – March)[76]
counterfeit ₹100 and ₹50 banknotes. The number of
Denomination 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18
counterfeit ₹500 and ₹1,000 (demonetised version)
banknotes saw an increase in 2016–17 and subsequently a ₹1 2 3 4
decline in 2017–18. But in 2017–18, there was an increase in ₹2 and ₹5 2 80 1
counterfeit ₹500 and ₹2,000 (new version) banknotes than
₹10 134 523 287
the previous year.[76] There has been no significant change in
the number of counterfeit banknotes detected. In 2017–18, ₹20 96 324 437
the number of detected counterfeit banknotes was close to the ₹50 6,453 9,222 23,447
number before demonetisation.[77] Additionally, after
₹100 221,447 177,195 239,182
demonetisation, only 0.0035% of the ₹1,000 banknotes were
found to be counterfeit.[78] ₹200 NA NA 79
₹500 (old) 261,695 317,567 127,918
Tax collection ₹500 (new) NA 199 9,892

₹1000 143,099 256,324 103,611
Tax-to-GDP ratio (%)[77] The number of income tax
returns filing increased from 43.3 ₹2000 NA 638 17,929
million to 52.9 million between Total 632,926 762,027 522,783
the financial year of 2016 and 2017, which was not a
significant increase compared to the increase between 2015 and 2016. The tax compliance had increased with
a number of income tax returns filing increased but the majority of them were from salaried and non-business
class. The income tax collections increased in the financial year of 2017 due to Income Disclosure Scheme
2016. If adjusted for it, the increase in tax collection was modest. The tax-to-GDP ratio has increased due to
expanding tax base.[79][77] An analysis of the economic data shows that there has been no substantial increase
in the number of new tax payers or direct tax collection due to demonetisation.[80][79][81] Indirect tax/GDP
ratio also remained on the trend path and had no visible impact.[82]
The use of demonetised banknotes was allowed for the payment of municipal and local civic body taxes,
leading to a jump in their revenue collections. For example, the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation
reported collecting about ₹160 crore (US$22 million) in cash payments of outstanding and advance taxes
within the first four days of demonetisation.[83]
Digital payments
The push for digital payments was one of the stated intentions of demonetisation.[84][85][86][87] There was
immediate and sharp jump in digital payments in November–December 2016 owing to shortages of cash. The
debit card point of sales transactions was twice the size of value suggested by trends before demonetisation.
The value of credit cards increased but no sharp growth was seen. The mobile wallet transactions picked up
immediately after demonetisation, followed by a dip in mid-2017 due to easing cash shortages. There was
again sharp rise thereafter. By April 2018, the volume of the digital payments had doubled.[84] After return of
the cash, the growth in digital payment had been modest.[77][84]
The currency-to-GDP ratio was 12.1% in 2015–16. It declined to 8.8% in 2016–17 due to demonetisation but
increased again to 10.9% in 2017–18.[76] The currency-to-GDP ratio was only marginally lower compared to
levels before demonetisation.[77]
Banknotes in circulation
On 28 October 2016, the total banknotes in circulation in India were valued at ₹17.77 lakh crore
(US$250 billion); what proportion of this derived from ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes was unknown. In its
annual report of March 2016, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stated that total banknotes in circulation valued
₹16.42 lakh crore (US$230 billion) of which nearly 86% (around ₹14.18 lakh crore (US$200 billion)) derived
from ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes. In terms of volume, the report stated that 24% (around 22.03 billion) of the
total 9026.6 crore (90.26 billion) banknotes in circulation were ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes.[88]
Before demonetisation (November 2016), there were banknotes worth ₹17.97 lakh crore (US$250 billion) in
the market. The demonetised banknotes constituted 86.4% of it.[12] The banknotes in circulation had reached
to the level before demonetisation in March 2018.[77] By March 2018, there were banknotes worth
₹18.03 lakh crore (US$250 billion) in the market; an increase of 9.9%. New banknotes of ₹2,000 and ₹500
constitute 80.6% of it. So there was only 5.8% increase in small domination banknotes.[12] The volume of
banknotes in the market increased by 2.1%.[76] The banknotes in circulation had further increased to
₹19.5 lakh crore (US$270 billion) in September 2018[89] and ₹21.41 lakh crore (US$300 billion) in March
2019, 19.14% higher than the level before demonetisation.[90]
Terrorism and internal security
Initially there was a decrease in the activities and attacks by Maoist and Naxalite radical groups, which was
attributed to lack of finance following demonetisation. The surrender rate had reached its
highest.[91][92][93][94][95] The activities returned within few months.[96][97] There was a decrease in the terror
activities in Jammu and Kashmir.[98][99]
Other effects
Shortage of cash
The scarcity of cash due to demonetisation led to chaos, and people
faced difficulties in depositing or exchanging the demonetised
banknotes due to long queues outside banks and ATMs across
India.[7][8][100][101] The ATMs were short of cash for months after
demonetisation.[102][103][104][105]
During the demonetisation, the unaccounted money worth ₹610 crore

were seized by the police and tax officials across India which
included ₹110 crore in new banknotes.[106] Reports in the media Queue at an ATM for ₹100
noted that although the general public faced a severe cash shortage, banknotes in Howrah, on 8
some individuals were able to amass crores in new banknotes; they November 2016, 22:23 (IST)
thus described the demonetisation exercise as being
futile.[107][108][109]
Transport
The All India Motor Transport Congress claimed that about 800,000 truck drivers and conductors were
affected with the shortage of cash, with around 400,000 trucks stranded at major highways across India.[110]
Major toll plazas in Gujarat and on the Delhi-Mumbai highways also saw long queues as toll plaza operators
refused the demonetised banknotes.[111] The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways subsequently
announced a suspension of toll collections on all national highways across the country until 2 December as
well as acceptance of demonetised ₹500 banknotes as a toll from 2 to 15 December.[112]
Stock market
As a combined effect of demonetisation and the US presidential election, the stock market indices dropped to
an around six-month low in the week following the announcement. The day after the demonetisation
announcement, BSE SENSEX crashed nearly 1,689 points and NIFTY 50 plunged by over 541 points.[15]
By the end of the intraday trading section on 15 November 2016, the BSE SENSEX index was lower by 565
points and the NIFTY 50 index was below 8100 intraday.[113] There were marginal effects on the stock
market during November–December 2016.[114] A data study (July 2016 – February 2017) of 54 companies
across 13 sectors listed with the NSE showed that companies in cement, cotton and rubber sectors showed an
increase in total trades while companies in automotive, clothing, foods, paper, real estate, retail, steel, sugar, tea
and textiles sectors showed a decrease in total trades after demonetisation.[115] Demonetisation had a negative
impact on stock market returns evidenced from NIFTY 50 and other NIFTY sectoral indices.[116]
Industrial output
There was a reduction in industrial output as industries were hit by the cash shortage.[117] The Purchasing
Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 46.7 in November 2016 from 54.5 in October 2016, recording its sharpest
reduction in three years.[118] A reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below shows contraction.
This indicates a slowdown in both manufacturing and services industries.[119] The PMI report also showed
that the reduction in inflation in November 2016 was due to a shortage in money supply.[118]
The growth in eight core sectors such as cement, steel and refinery products, which constitute 38% of the
Index of industrial production (IIP), was only to 4.9 percent in November 2016 as compared with 6.6 percent
a month ago.[119][120]
Agriculture
Transactions in the agriculture sector are heavily dependent on cash and were adversely affected by the
demonetisation.[121] Due to scarcity of the new banknotes, many farmers have insufficient cash to purchase
seeds, fertilisers and pesticides needed for the plantation of rabi crops usually sown around mid-
November.[122] Farmers and their unions conducted protest rallies in Gujarat, Amritsar and Muzaffarnagar
against the demonetisation as well as against restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank of India on district
cooperative central banks which were ordered not to accept or exchange the demonetised
banknotes.[123][124][125][126]
The shortage of cash led to plunge in demand which in turn led to a crash in the prices of crops. Farmers were
unable to recover even the costs of transportation from their fields to the market from the low prices
offered.[127][128] Some farmers dumped their produce in protest against the government.[129][130]
Demonetisation resulted in the relative erosion of agricultural wages and weak bargaining power of farmers for
their produce.[131]
Real GDP growth rate

Real GDP growth rate – Quarterly (%)[132][133][134][135]
Real GDP growth rate – Year-on-Year (%)[136]

Global analysts cut their forecasts of India's real GDP growth
rate for the financial year 2016–17 by 0.5 to
3% due to demonetisation.[137][138] India's Real GDP growth rate[132][133][134][135] (base year 2011–12)
GDP in 2016 is estimated to be US$2.25 Financial Year Quarter Quarterly Yearly
trillion, hence, each 1 per cent reduction in
Q1 (April–June) 7%
growth rate represents a shortfall of US$22.5
billion (₹ 1.54 lakh crore) for the Indian Q2 (July–September) 7.4%
[139] 2015–16 8%[136]
economy. According to Societe Q3 (October–December) 7.2%
Generale, quarterly GDP growth rates would
Q4 (January–March) 9.1%
drop below 7% for an entire year at a stretch
for the first time since June 2011. [140] Q1 (April–June) 7.9%
Q2 (July–September) 7.5%
The Q4'16–17 rate was 6.1% as against a 2016–17 7.1%[136]
forecast of 7.1% by economists.[141] The rate Q3 (October–December) 7%
for the financial year 2016–17 was 7.1%, a Q4 (January–March) 6.1%
reduction from the 8% in 2015–16.[142] This
Q1 (April–June) 5.7%
drop was attributed to demonetisation by
economists.[143] Q2 (July–September) 6.3%
2017–18 6.5%
Q3 (October–December) 7.2%
The GDP growth rate for Q1'17–18 dropped
Q4 (January–March) 7.6%
to 5.7%, compared to 7.9% a year ago,[144]
the lowest since March 2014. This drop was Q1 (April–June) 7.7%
attributed to demonetisation as well as Q2 (July–September) 8.2%
inventory drawdown by companies due to 2018–19
the forthcoming implementation of the Goods Q3 (October–December)
and Service Tax.[145][132] The GDP started Q4 (January–March)
to recover from Q2'17–18 and clocked 8.2%
in Q2'18–19.[133][135][146]
Employment
Employed workforce[147][148]
Monthly unemployment rate[149]
There was a loss of jobs and a decline in wages due to demonetisation, particularly in the unorganised and
informal sector and as well as in small enterprises.[150][151][152][153] Migrant workers were adversely affected
by demonetisation.[154][155]
According to the report prepared by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the number of
employed people was 401 million in January–April 2016, 403 million during May–August 2016, and 406.5
million in September–December 2016. After demonetisation in November 2016, the number fell to 405
million in January–April 2017. So there was fall of 1.5 million in number of people employed.[148] CMIE also
reported that the number of persons employed was 406.7 million in 2016–17 which fell by 0.1% to 406.2
million in 2017–18. So the employment had stagnated which resulted in employment rate decline. The
employment rate fell from 42.59% in 2016–17 to 41.45% in 2016–17. The unemployment rate also declined
from 7.51% in 2016–17 to 4.66% in 2017–18 because of the shrinking employed force. The number of the
employed force fell from 439.7 million in 2016–17 to 426.1 million in 2017–18. CMIE attributed the impact to
demonetisation as well as implementation of Goods and Services Tax in July 2017.[147][149]
Cost to banks
Before demonetisation, the RBI had spent ₹3,421 crore to print banknotes in 2015–2016 (July to June). The
cost of printing new banknotes escalated to ₹7,965 crore in 2016–17 and ₹4,912 crore in 2017–18.[12] This
resulted in a decline in the dividend paid to the government from ₹65,876 crore in 2015–16 to ₹30,659 crore
in 2016–17 and ₹50,000 crore in 2017–18.[12][156][157] It was estimated that this decrease in income for the
government could cause the fiscal deficit for the financial year 2016–17 to increase from the targeted 3.2% to
3.4%.[158] The Indian Air Force was paid ₹29.41 crore to move banknotes after demonetisation.[159]
The banks incurred the cost in collection, storage and movement of banknotes across the country as well as in
re-calibrating the ATMs.[160]
Welfare schemes
Demonetisation negatively impacted the Midday Meal Scheme due to the shortage of funds.[161][162][163][164]
Deaths
Several people were reported to have died from standing in queues for hours to exchange their demonetised
banknotes.[165][166][167][168][169][170] Deaths were also attributed to lack of medical help due to refusal of
demonetised banknotes by hospitals.[171][172][173] By the end of December 2016, political opposition leaders
claimed that over 100 people had died due to demonetisation.[174][175][176] In March 2017, the government
stated that they received no official report on deaths connected to demonetisation.[177] Later in December
2018, the then Finance Minister Arun Jaitley reported in parliament that four people, three bank personnel and
one customer of the State Bank of India, died during demonetisation.[178]
Legal issues
A public interest litigation (PIL) was filed in Madras High Court by M. Seeni Ahamed, General Secretary of
the Indian National League, to scrap the decision of demonetisation. The High Court dismissed the PIL,
stating that it could not interfere in monetary policies of the government.[179] Similar PILs were also filed in
the Supreme Court of India.[180] In November 2017, the Supreme Court of India referred all cases related to
demonetisation to constitutional bench to review the legality of the demonetisation, implementation
irregularities and violation of people's rights by limits on cash withdrawals.[181]
The government had initially announced that any person who is unable to deposit the demonetised banknotes
by 31 December 2016 would be given an opportunity to do so until a later date.[1] However, the government
allowed only Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) to deposit demonetised banknotes after 31 December 2016.[182]
As a result, many people were left stranded with demonetised banknotes. People petitioned the courts to allow
a deposit of the demonetised banknotes.[183] In November 2017, the Supreme Court dismissed 14 petitions
related to demonetisation, and asked petitioners to file pleas with a constitutional bench which would deal with
cases related to demonetisation.[184]
Reactions
Reactions of economists
Most economists across the ideological spectrum, except some partisan ones, were broadly critical of the
demonetisation as an economic policy.[185]
Indian-American economist Jagdish Bhagwati praised the demonetisation.[186] Nobel laureate Amartya Sen,
severely criticised the demonetisation move, calling it a "despotic action" among other things.[187][188][189]
Former Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Kaushik Basu, called it a 'major
mistake' and said that the 'damage' is likely to be much greater than any possible benefits.[190][191][192] Pronab
Sen, former Chief Statistician and Planning Commission of India member, called it a "hollow move" since it
did not really address any of the purported goals of tackling black money or fake currency.[193] Prabhat
Patnaik, a former professor of economics at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi called the move 'witless'
and 'anti-people'. He criticised the simple way in which black money was assumed as "a hoard of cash",
saying that it would have little effect in eliminating "black activities" while "causing much hardship to
common people."[194]
Economist and journalist T. N. Ninan wrote in the Business Standard that demonetisation 'looks like a bad
idea, badly executed on the basis of some half-baked notions'.[195] Steve Forbes described the move as
'Sickening And Immoral'.[196] He stated that "What India has done is commit a massive theft of people's
property without even the pretense of due process—a shocking move for a democratically elected
government."[196] Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said that it is difficult to see gains from demonetisation, while
there may be significant costs to it.[197] Economic analyst Vivek Kaul stated in a BBC article that
"demonetisation had been a failure of epic proportions."[14]
Reactions of industrialists
The decision met with mixed initial reactions. Several bankers like Arundhati Bhattacharya (Chairperson of
State Bank of India) and Chanda Kochhar (MD & CEO of ICICI Bank) appreciated the move in the sense that
it would help curb black money.[198] Businessmen Anand Mahindra (Mahindra Group), Sajjan Jindal (JSW
Group), Kunal Bahl (Snapdeal and FreeCharge) also supported the move adding that it would also accelerate
e-commerce.[198] Infosys founder N. R. Narayana Murthy praised the move.[199][200]
Deepak Parekh (Chairman of HDFC) had initially appreciated the decision of demonetisation, but later said
that the move had derailed the economy, and expressed skepticism about its outcome.[201][202] Industrialist
Rajiv Bajaj criticised demonetisation, saying that not just the execution, but the concept of demonetisation was
wrong in itself.[203]
Political reactions
Indian National Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala welcomed the move but remained skeptical on the
consequences that would follow.[204] Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar supported the move.[205][206][207]
The demonetisation also got support from the then Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Nara Chandrababu
Naidu.[208][209][210] Former Chief Election Commissioner of India S. Y. Quraishi said demonetisation could
lead to long term electoral reforms.[211] Indian social activist Anna Hazare hailed demonetisation as a
"revolutionary step".[212][213][214] Former President of India Pranab Mukherjee welcomed the demonetisation
move by calling it a "bold step".[215][216][217][218] Chief Ministers of several Indian states like Mamata
Banerjee,[219] Arvind Kejriwal[220] and Pinarayi Vijayan[221] have criticised and led major protests against
the decision in their states and in parliament. Initially, the move to demonetise and try to hinder black money
was appreciated, but the manner in which it was carried out by causing hardships to common people was
criticised.[222]
A Parliamentary panel report in April 2017 stated that rural households and honest taxpayers were the worst
hit by demonetisation.[223] It said that it was not just the poor that suffered, but the manufacturing sector was
impacted too.[224] According to the panel, demonetisation created significant disruption throughout economy,
because it was carried out without prior study or research.[225][226] An Indian National Congress led
opposition which includes 13 political parties, opposed the government on the issue of demonetisation in the
Winter Session of the Indian Parliament.[227][228][229][230]
On 16 November 2016, Mamata Banerjee led a delegation comprising political parties of Trinamool Congress,
Aam Aadmi Party, BJP ally Shiv Sena and National Conference to Rashtrapati Bhawan to protest against the
decision of demonetisation. A memorandum was submitted to the President of India Pranab Mukherjee
demanding rollback of the decision.[231][10]
Prem Chand Gupta, a member of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, questioned a statement of Modi from the
unscheduled TV broadcast on 8 November, "If it was planned 10 months ago, how did RBI Governor Urjit
Patel sign on new note?". Praful Patel, a member of the Nationalist Congress Party, stated that "the
government was not even prepared to recalibrate the ATMs while announcing the move. "People's suffering
are unimaginable. Nobody is questioning the government's intention, but you are unprepared to execute the
move". Later, the former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Mayawati stated the situation to "a financial
emergency", by saying "It looks as if Bharat has shut down." Also, Sitaram Yechury from the Communist
Party of India, questioned the government on the demonetisation move by stating "only 6% of black money in
India is in cash to drive his point that demonetisation won't curb illicit wealth."[232]
On 17 November 2016, a rally against demonetisation, led by Chief Minister of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal and his
West Bengal counterpart Mamata Banerjee at Azadpur Mandi, the biggest vegetable and fruits wholesale
market in New Delhi was organised.[233]
On 24 November 2016, former prime minister Manmohan Singh said "this scheme will hurt small industries,
the farming sector. The GDP can decline by about 3 percent due to this move". He termed the demonetisation
as an "organised loot, legalised plunder of the common people".[234][235]
Strikes were organised across India. Opposition parties like the Indian National Congress, Bahujan Samaj
Party, Trinamool Congress,[236] DMK, JD(U), AIADMK, Nationalist Congress Party, Left, Rashtriya Janata
Dal and the Samajwadi Party[237] decided to observe 'Akrosh Diwas' as, a protest campaign day on 28
November [238][239] and launch protests in front of banks, demanding that money be returned to people.[240]
In the state of Bihar, 15 trains were blocked and stranded, while the states of West Bengal, Maharashtra and
Uttar Pradesh saw protest marches and rallies led by opposition parties.[241] In the state of Kerala, shops and
business establishments were shut, with schools and colleges closed throughout the state, while movements of
private vehicles were also disrupted in Northern Kerala.[241]
Former Indian Chief Election Commissioner, O. P. Rawat stated that 'the note ban had absolutely no impact on
black money', and that record amounts of money had been seized in polls held after demonetisation.[242]
International reactions
By and large, initial international response was positive which saw the move as a bold crackdown on
corruption.[243][244][245] The International Monetary Fund's spokesperson Gerry Rice told that it supported
the efforts to fight corruption and illegal finances but cautioned about the disruptions.[243]
Chinese state media Global Times praised the move and termed it as "fierce fight against black money and
corruption."[244] Former Prime Minister of Finland and Vice-President of European Commission Jyrki
Katainen welcomed the demonetisation move stressing that bringing transparency will strengthen the Indian
economy.[246][247] BBC's South Asia Correspondent Justin Rowlatt in his article praised the move for its
secrecy.[248] Tim Worstall termed the demonetisation as welcome macroeconomic effect in his article in Forbes
magazine.[249] Swedish Minister of Enterprise Mikael Damberg supported the move by calling it a bold
decision.[245]
The demonetisation also came in for sharp criticism from media outside India,[250][251] with The New York
Times saying that the demonetisation was "atrociously planned" and that it did not appear to have combatted
black money,[252][253] while an article in The Guardian stated that "Modi has brought havoc to India".[250]
The Harvard Business Review called it "a case study in poor policy and even poorer execution".[254] The
frequent change in the narrative on objectives of the demonetisation to its visible impact on the poorest of the
poor made other critiques calling the government's narrative as spins in view of the "pointless suffering on
India's poorest."[255]
Political impact
Akshay Mangala, an Assistant Professor at Harvard Business School, called the move "the politics of visible
disruption". He noted that the people might attribute the implementation shortcomings to institutional weakness
while the government could take credit for its attempt to curb the black money. He also noted that it may result
in the public opinion in favour of the government which is led by the BJP if the opposition parties, led by the
INC, fail to form the countervailing narrative.[256] MIT associated academics Abhijit Banerjee and Namrata
Kala also opined the same.[185]
The BJP and its allies formed the government in six out of seven state legislative assemblies which went to the
elections in 2017, including the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh.[185][257][258][259] BJP improved its
performance in Uttarakhand[257][259][260] and Himachal Pradesh.[261][262] In Manipur and Goa, INC secured
the plurality while BJP came second and formed the government with the help of its allies.[259][263] In
Gujarat, BJP worsened its performance but retained the majority.[264][261] The BJP and its allies lost to the
INC in Punjab.[259]
Long term impact
In 2019, India experienced the economic slowdown which was attributed to demonetisation and several other
factors.[265][266]
In popular culture
Choked, a 2020 Netflix film directed by Anurag Kashyap is set in backdrop of demonetisation.
Golak Bugni Bank Te Batua, a 2018 Punjabi film also revolves around demonetisation.
Chappad Phaad Ke ,a 2019 Disney+Hotstar film revolves around demonetisation
See also
Indian black money
Mahatma Gandhi New Series
Income declaration scheme, 2016
Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana
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External links
What the FAQ just happened! All your questions about Rs 500–1000 notes answered (http://ind
iatoday.intoday.in/story/rupees-500-1000-currency-note-faq-narendra-modi/1/805954.html),
India Today, 8 November 2016
FAQ answers and Guidelines on Reserve Bank of India (https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQView.asp
x?Id=119)
Ministry of Finance, Government of India (http://www.finmin.nic.in/)
Litvack, L., & Vigne, S. (2017). Demonetisation in India and Emerging Challenges: A Report
Delivered to the Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland and the Government of India by
Queen's University Belfast and O.P. Jindal Global University. Belfast: Queen's University
Belfast. http://pure.qub.ac.uk/portal/files/131517443/Final_report.pdf
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2016 Indian Banknote Demonetisation

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2016 Indian Banknote Demonetisation

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2016 Indian banknote demonetisation

On 8 November 2016, the Government of India announced the

The announcement of demonetisation was followed by prolonged

Preparation and announcement

Cash exchange and withdrawal

Cash withdrawals from bank accounts were restricted to ₹10,000 per

Ordinance and Acts

Objectives and outcomes

Tax collection ₹500 (new) NA 199 9,892

Terrorism and internal security

During the demonetisation, the unaccounted money worth ₹610 crore

Real GDP growth rate

Real GDP growth rate – Year-on-Year (%)[136]

Monthly unemployment rate[149]

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