Solar Energy

Prediction
using
Decision
Tree
Regressor
 TEAM MEMBERS

Shrivatsa Maheshwari
(2020A3PS0522G)
Sneha Saraswat
(2020A8PS2054G)
Sonesh Kumar Swain
(2020A7PS1729G)

www.reallygreatsite.com Page 4
TABLE OF CONTENT
1 INTRODUCTION
2 PREVIOUS WORKS
3 BACKGROUND THEORY
3.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4 ANALYSIS
4.1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 PROGRAMMING METHODOLOGY
6 CONCLUSIONS
7 FUTURE WORKS
8 GRAPHS AND TABLES - SECTION 3
9 GRAPHS AND TABLES - SECTION 4
10 REFERENCES
 ABSTRACT

This research focuses on developing a system that

can accurately predict the output production of
Solar Power Plants and examine the relationship
between weather attributes and power generation.
To achieve this objective, the study uses the
Decision Tree Regressor model to forecast the
power generation of a solar power plant

The research aims to create a reliable and efficient

system for predicting the output of solar power
plants that can benefit the renewable energy
industry and the environment
INTRODUCTION

The generation of SE depends on the weather

conditions, which can impact the efficiency of
photovoltaic cells. To ensure cost savings and
quality service, there is a need for a system
that can predict the output of these cells and
facilitate timely orders for supply and demand
gaps.

Photovoltaic cell efficiency is a significant

concern

Objective of this research is to enhance the

Storing the generated energy is another major issue in solar
energy production.
accuracy and precision of solar energy (SE)
generation prediction through the development of
efficient algorithms and the inclusion of more
relevant weather-related and photovoltaic (PV)-
related parameters into the datasets.
PREVIOUS WORKS
1 2
A study has been conducted to compare
Several studies have compared different models, including regression models (such
various models for predicting solar power
as linear and polynomial), boosting models (such as XGBoost, AdaBoost, and
generation using weather data as input.
Gradient Boosting), and bagging models. In Gumi, South Korea, Lee and Kim
The study found that the Artificial Neural
conducted a study on this topic.
Network model achieved an RMSE (Root
Mean Square Error) of 2.1436, indicating
high accuracy in predicting so.

4
3
Various techniques have been used to predict photovoltaic cells and solar radiation
Another study was conducted in Yeongnam,
using numerical weather prediction systems like ECMWF and GFS. These systems use
South Korea, to make day-ahead
data from various sources to make weather predictions, which can then be used to
predictions. The researchers in this study
predict solar radiation and the performance of photovoltaic cells. In addition to these
used meteorological data from the Korea
techniques, statistical models like ARIMA have also been used to make daily and
Meteorological Administration (KMA), but
monthly solar radiation predictions. ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving
the data did not include highly correlated
Average) is a time-series forecasting model that can be used to make predictions
parameters such as humidity,
based on historical data. To further improve the performance of prediction models,
temperature, and solar elevation.
solar angles such as Zenith Angle and Azimuth Angle have also been used.
 Background Theory

Solar energy is one of the renewable energy sources that is growing the fastest, and its use has increased
significantly over the past several years.But its intermittent nature is one of the limitations and it is difficult
predict how much power will be produced at any one time.

For predicting solar energy, a variety of machine-learning techniques can be utilized, including:

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs)

Decision Trees
Support Vector Machines (SVMs)
 Decision Tree Model

Talking about Decision Tress it is a form of an algorithm that employs a tree-like model to represent decisions and
potential outcomes. They can be used to predict the generation of solar energy by modeling the link between input
features, such as meteorological factors, and output variables, such as solar energy production.

The model works by selecting a variable to divide the nodes and then analyzing the splits using metrics such as :
Poisson function
Mean Absolute Error
Mean Square Error
To achieve the desired performance, the depth of the decision tree needs to be appropriately managed. A tree with a
shorter depth will have a higher bias and lower variance, while a deeper tree will have a higher variance and lower bias.

Thus the splitting criterion and the maximum depth of the tree is used to determine the optimal values for all the
parameters.
Programming Methodology

Data Collection - include temperature, humidity, wind.

Data Preprocessing
Feature Selection
Split Data into Train and Test Sets
Train the Decision Tree Regressor Model
Validate the Model
Fine-tune the Model: adjusting the hyperparameters.
Generate Predictions
Results
Here we are trying to predict the percentage of cloud coverage over a period
of time as it's directly proportional to solar output.
We tested the model with testing data that was 1/6th of the total data.
We chose 4 different window durations for testing - 30 mins, 60 mins, 90
mins, and 120 mins.
According to the results that have been calculated, the MAE (Mean Absolute
Error) is 2.68 for training and 2.88 for testing.
The percentages are mentioned in the result.csv file included in the
references of our report.
We also have a model where the solar output is predicted in kWh.
Since the results are too large to display, they can be accessed with the
following link.
Results
 Conclusions
We used the data to develop a predictive model for solar energy generation, using a combination
of statistical and machine learning techniques, including linear re- gression, support vector
regression, and artificial neural networks. The model was trained on the historical data and then
tested on data from the same installation for the next 24 hours

The predictive model was able to accurately predict solar energy generation for
the next 24 hours with an average error of less than 5%.

Incorporating weather data significantly improved the accuracy of the model.

Temperature and solar radiation were the most important factors in predicting
energy generation

This study provides promising results for the use of predictive models in managing
solar energy generation. However, it is important to note that the accuracy of the
model may vary depending on the specific location and weather conditions.

In conclusion, the use of predictive models for managing solar energy generation is
a promising approach to reducing reliance on fossil fuels and optimizing the use of
renewable energy sources.
 Future Works
There is still much more that can be explored in terms of using
predictive models for renewable energy source exploring
artificial intelligence techniques like reinforcement learning and
deep learning can provide more advanced and accurate
predictions.
Continued research and innovation in this area can contribute
to a more sustainable and cleaner future for energy generation.
Thank You

Solar Energy Prediction using Decision Tree Regressor

Shrivatsa Maheshwari (2020A3PS0522G)
Sneha Saraswat (2020A8PS2054G)
Sonesh Kumar Swain (2020A7PS1729G)
Astronomy Project Report, BITS PILANI GOA CAMPUS