Una compañia desea determinar el pronostico de ventas para el semestre 2023, los datos h

PROMEDIO MOVIL

PERIODO CANTIDADPROMEDIOPROMEDIO
N=3 N=4
ECM N=3 ECM N=4 PMD
1B 2021 22
2B 2021 27
3B 2021 136
4B 2021 40 61.66666667 469.4444444
5B 2021 43 67.66666667 56.25 608.4444444 12247.11111
6B 2021 45 73 61.5 784 13924
1B 2022 48 42.66666667 66 28.44444444 8220.444444
2B 2022 52 45.33333333 44 44.44444444 9473.777778
3B 2022 154 48.33333333 47 11165.44444 40938.77778
4B 2022 57 84.66666667 74.75 765.4444444 20069.44444
5B 2022 58 87.66666667 77.75 880.1111111 21218.77778
6B 2022 59 89.66666667 80.25 940.4444444 22101.77778 60.875
PMS ECM 1742.91358 18524.26389

Datos
PMS 80.25
PMD 60.875

A) Ajiste para PMD

99.625
B) Ajuste empirico
12.91666667

CALCULO DEL PRONOSTICO

A B X Y PERIODO
22 1B 2021
27 2B 2021
136 3B 2021
40 4B 2021
43 5B 2021
45 6B 2021
48 1B 2022
52 2B 2022
154 3B 2022
57 4B 2022
58 5B 2022
59 6B 2022
 99.625 12.91666667 1 113 1B 2023
99.625 12.91666667 2 126 2B 2023
99.625 12.91666667 3 139 3B 2023
99.625 12.91666667 4 152 4B 2023
99.625 12.91666667 5 165 5B 2023
99.625 12.91666667 6 178 6B 2023

200
Chart Title
180
Column C Linear (Column C)
160
160
140
120
120
80
100
40
80
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
60

40

20

0
1 2 3
estre 2023, los datos historicos se encuentran en la tabla de la izquierda para el producto en cuestion

REGRESION LINEAL SIMPLE APROXIMACION EXPONENCIAL DO

PERIODOCANTIDAD X
PERIODO CANTIDAD
1B 2021 22 1 1B 2021 22
2B 2021 27 2 2B 2021 27
3B 2021 136 3 3B 2021 136
4B 2021 40 4 4B 2021 40
5B 2021 43 5 5B 2021 43
6B 2021 45 6 6B 2021 45
1B 2022 48 7 1B 2022 48
2B 2022 52 8 2B 2022 52
3B 2022 154 9 3B 2022 154
4B 2022 57 10 4B 2022 57
5B 2022 58 11 5B 2022 58
6B 2022 59 12 6B 2022 59

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACION LINEAL

0.226904418 APLICAR LOS AJUSTES AL PRONOSTIC
Datos para el ajuste
AJUSTE PARA PRONOSTICO AES 63.87939453
A 45.09091 AED 68.56030273
B 2.562937 ALFA 0.5

A B X Y PERIODO A) AJUSTE POR TENDENCIA

22 1B 2021 59.198486328
27 2B 2021 A) AJUSTE POR TENDENCIA
136 3B 2021 -4.680908203
40 4B 2021
43 5B 2021
45 6B 2021
48 1B 2022
52 2B 2022
154 3B 2022
57 4B 2022
58 5B 2022
59 6B 2022
45.09090909 2.562937 1 48 1B 2023
45.09090909 2.562937 2 51 2B 2023
45.09090909 2.562937 3 53 3B 2023
45.09090909 2.562937 4 56 4B 2023
 45.09090909 2.562937 5 58 5B 2023
45.09090909 2.562937 6 61 6B 2023

Chart Title
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180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Column E
cto en cuestion

ON EXPONENCIAL DOBLE 0.5

AES (D-P) a (D-P) P + a (D-P) (D-P)^2 PERIOD CANTID P'

22 0 0 22 0 1B 2021 22 22
22 5 2.5 24.5 25 2B 2021 24.5 22
24.5 111.5 55.75 80.25 12432.25 3B 2021 80.25 23.25
80.25 -40.25 -20.125 60.125 1620.0625 4B 2021 60.125 51.75
60.125 -17.125 -8.5625 51.5625 293.265625 5B 2021 51.5625 55.9375
51.5625 -6.5625 -3.28125 48.28125 43.06640625 6B 2021 48.28125 53.75
48.28125 -0.28125 -0.140625 48.140625 0.0791015625 1B 2022 48.14063 51.01563
48.14063 3.859375 1.9296875 50.0703125 14.89477539 2B 2022 50.07031 49.57813
50.07031 103.9297 51.96484375 102.03515625 10801.37994 3B 2022 102.0352 49.82422
102.0352 -45.03516 -22.51757813 79.517578125 2028.165298 4B 2022 79.51758 75.92969
79.51758 -21.51758 -10.75878906 68.758789063 463.0061684 5B 2022 68.75879 77.72363
68.75879 -9.758789 -4.879394531 63.879394531 95.23396397 6B 2022 63.87939 73.24121
2318.033649

JUSTES AL PRONOSTICOS CALCULO DE PRONOSTICO

A B X Y PERIODO
22 1B 2021
27 2B 2021
136 3B 2021
40 4B 2021
43 5B 2021
45 6B 2021
48 1B 2022
52 2B 2022
154 3B 2022
57 4B 2022
58 5B 2022
59 6B 2022
59.19848633 -4.680908203 1 55 1B 2023
59.19848633 -4.680908203 2 50 2B 2023
59.19848633 -4.680908203 3 46 3B 2023
59.19848633 -4.680908203 4 41 4B 2023
59.19848633 -4.680908203 5 36 5B 2023
59.19848633 -4.680908203 6 32 6B 2023
15 16 17 18
 0.5 VARIACIÓN ESTACIONAL
P' + a (D'-
(D'-P') a (D'-P') P') PERIODO 2 2021 2022 PROMEDIOEI
0 0 22 1B 2021 22 48 35 0.566802
2.5 1.25 23.25 2B 2021 27 52 39.5 0.639676
57 28.5 51.75 3B 2021 136 154 145 2.348178
8.375 4.1875 55.9375 4B 2021 40 57 48.5 0.785425
-4.375 -2.1875 53.75 5B 2021 43 58 50.5 0.817814
-5.46875 -2.734375 51.015625 6B 2021 45 59 52 0.842105
-2.875 -1.4375 49.578125 61.75
0.492188 0.246094 49.82421875
52.21094 26.10547 75.9296875 X 313 428
3.587891 1.793945 77.72363281 y 1 2
-8.964844 -4.482422 73.24121094
-9.361816 -4.680908 68.56030273 A 198
B 115
r 1

VENTA ANUAL
543 90.5
PERIODO PROM VNTEI PRONOSTICO
1B 2023 90.5 0.566802 51.29555
2B 2023 90.5 0.639676 57.89069
3B 2023 90.5 2.348178 212.5101