S&P 500 Valuation

S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Estimator

Inputs
Enter current level of index 4769.83 Input cell
Growth and Discount Rate Inputs Output cell.
Enter current long term risk free rate = 3.88% Equity Risk Premium Choices
Do you want to change the risk free rate after year 5 No Average implied ERP (last dec ERP10 5.33%
If yes, riskfree rate after year 5 3.00% Direct Input ERPDirect 5.00% Change this to any ERP you want
Do you want the change to be gradual or sudden (in year 6)? Gradual (over 5 years) Historical High ERP (1960-CurERPHigh 6.45%
Average implied ERP (1960-CuERPLong 4.25%
If you want to compute an intrinsic value for index, what ERP woul ERPDirect Historical Low ERP (1960-CurrHL 2.05%
ERP used to compute fair value of index (you can override this nu 5.00% Do not input Historical Equity risk premiumHUS 5.23%
Expected growth rate in the long term (after year 5) = 3.88% Do not input
Return on Equity = 17.04%
Earnings Forecasts
Earnings in 2023 (Most recent year.. Will not affect your valuation) 219.70 If you choose to adjust the earnings estimates in 2024 up or
Dividends and Buybacks in 2022 (Most recent year) 164.25 down, from analyst forecasts, the effects will ripple into the
following years, and have a permanent effect on earnings and
Earnings in 2024 244.00
value. Earnings in 2026-28 will be estimated based upon
Earnings in 2025 274.60 earnings in 2025, with growth scaling down to long term stable
growth.
Do you want to adjust 2024 earnings estimates to reflect your vie No
If so, enter the percentage difference (negative to lower, positive to -10.00%

Intrinsic Value Estimate (based on your choice of ERP)

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Terminal Year
Expected Earnings $219.70 244.00 274.60 301.11 321.49 333.96 346.92
Expected Earnings Growth Rate 11.06% 12.54% 9.65% 6.77% 3.88% 3.88%
Expected cash payout (dividends + buybacks) as % of earnings 74.76% 74.76% 75.38% 76.00% 76.61% 77.23% 77.23%
Expected Dividends + Buybacks = $164.25 $182.42 $206.99 $228.83 $246.30 $257.92 267.92
Expected Terminal Value = $5,358.49
Riskfree Rate 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88% 3.88%
Required Return on Stocks 8.88% 8.88% 8.88% 8.88% 8.88% 8.88% 8.88%
Present Value = $ 167.54 $ 174.60 $ 177.28 $ 175.26 $3,670.44
Intrinsic Value of Index = 4365.12
Intrinsic Trailing PE = 19.87
Intrinsic Forward PE = 17.89
Intrinsic CAPE (based on inflation-adjusted ten year average earnin 46.65
Actual Index level = 4769.83
% Under or Over Valuation = 9.27%

Page 1
S&P 500 Valuation

Page 2
 Earnings and Growth

Top Down Estimates (Yardeni on9/26/23) Top-down Estimates (An

Year Earnings on Index Source Year
2021 208.53 2021
2022 218.09 Yardeni 2022
2023 3.17% 225 Yardeni 2023
2024 11.11% 250 Yardeni 2024
2025 8.00% 270 2025
2026 6.48% 2026
2027 5.53% 2027
2028 4.58% 2028
Compounded average 6.82% CAGR

Sources for top down estimates

Thomson Reuters
Factset
Yardeni
S&P Capital IQ Used estimated Net Income aggregated across
individual companies for next two years

Page 3
Earnings and Growth

Page 4
 Earnings and Growth

Top-down Estimates (Analyst Consensus on 9/26/23) Bottom-up Estimates (Factset

Earnings on Index Source Year
208.53 2021
218.09 Analyst Consensus 2022E
1.17% 220.65 Analyst Consensus 2023
12.07% 247.29 Analyst Consensus 2024
12.21% 277.49 Analyst Consensus 2025
7.18% 2026
5.88% 2027
4.58% 2028
7.63% CAGR: 2021E

On 12/31/22
Market Strategists Estimates
FIRM STRATEGIST2022 S&P 500 2023 EPS IMPLIED P/E
Deutsche BankBinky Cha 4500 195.00 23.08
BMO Brian Bels 4300 220.00 19.55
Scotiabank Hugo Ste- 4225 225.00 18.78
Jeffries Sean Darb 4200 232.00 18.10
JP Morgan Dubravko 4200 205.00 20.49
Cantor FitzgeraEric John 4100 212.00 19.34
RBC Capital MaLori Calva 4100 199.00 20.60
Credit Suisse Jonathan 4050 230.00 17.61
Bank of Ameri Savita Su 4000 200.00 20.00
Goldman SachDavis Kos 4000 224.00 17.86
HSBC Max Kettn 4000 225.00 17.78
Citigroup Scott Chr 3900 215.00 18.14
Morgan Stanle Mike Wils 3900 314.00 12.42
UBS Keith Par 3900 198.00 19.70
Barclays Venu Kris 3725 207.00 18.00
Societe GeneraManish Ka 3650 220.00 16.59
BNP Paribas Greg Bout 3400 219.00 15.53

Page 5
 Earnings and Growth

Evercore ISI Julian Em - 222.00

Stifel Barry Bann - 220.00
Average $220.11
Median $220.00
High $314.00
Low $195.00

Page 6
 Earnings and Growth

Bottom-up Estimates (Factset on 12/22)

Earnings on Index Source
208.49
220.87 Analyst Consensus
4.85% 231.59 Analyst Consensus
4.80% Analyst Consensus
4.74% Analyst Consensus
4.69%
4.63%
4.58%
4.74%

MPLIED P/E

Page 7
Earnings and Growth

Page 8
 Buyback & Dividend computation

Gross Cash
Year Dividend YieldBuybacks/Index Yield Payout Return on Equity
Net Profit MarginColumn1
2001 1.37% 1.25% 2.62% 77.43% 11.92% 5.27%
2002 1.81% 1.58% 3.39% 64.78% 13.61% 6.82%
2003 1.61% 1.23% 2.84% 57.74% 16.79% 7.69%
2004 1.57% 1.78% 3.35% 59.99% 18.43% 8.59%
2005 1.79% 3.11% 4.90% 80.01% 18.43% 8.74%
2006 1.77% 3.39% 5.16% 83.40% 19.36% 9.21%
2007 1.92% 4.58% 6.49% 115.53% 16.36% 8.05%
2008 3.15% 4.33% 7.47% 136.37% 9.35% 4.75%
2009 1.97% 1.39% 3.36% 65.82% 12.60% 6.26%
2010 1.80% 2.61% 4.42% 66.28% 16.31% 8.70%
2011 2.11% 3.56% 5.67% 73.91% 16.65% 9.16%
2012 2.19% 3.13% 5.32% 78.39% 15.79% 8.86%
2013 1.89% 2.88% 4.77% 84.00% 15.73% 9.39%
2014 1.92% 3.03% 4.95% 87.79% 16.23% 9.99%
2015 2.12% 3.18% 5.30% 107.83% 13.82% 8.91%
2016 2.04% 2.78% 4.82% 101.66% 14.35% 9.23%
2017 1.83% 2.28% 4.11% 88.17% 16.19% 10.11%
2018 2.17% 3.83% 6.00% 98.51% 18.48% 11.52%
2019 1.81% 2.72% 4.53% 93.08% 18.46% 11.29%
2020 1.52% 1.64% 3.16% 84.90% 15.28% 10.25%
2021 1.27% 2.19% 3.47% 80.48% 22.14% 13.59%
2022 1.74% 2.85% 4.60% 88.74% 19.73% 11.60%
Average: Last 10 years = 4.57% 91.52% 17.04% 10.59%
Updated April 1, 2023
Average: Last 5 years 4.35% 89.14% 18.82% 11.65%
Updated April 1, 2023

Index at the start of the current quarter = 4288.05 Base for normalized Cashflow

Market value of Stock Cash to Net Cash to

Year index Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances equity Equity
2001 1148.09 38.85 15.74 14.34 30.08
2002 879.82 46.04 15.96 13.87 29.83
2003 1111.91 54.69 17.88 13.70 31.58
2004 1211.92 67.68 19.01 21.59 40.60
2005 1248.29 76.45 22.34 38.82 61.17
2006 1418.30 87.72 25.04 48.12 73.16
2007 1468.36 82.54 28.14 67.22 95.36
2008 903.25 49.51 28.45 39.07 67.52
2009 1115.00 56.86 21.97 15.46 37.43
2010 1257.64 83.77 22.65 32.88 55.53
2011 1257.60 96.44 26.53 44.75 71.28
2012 1426.19 96.82 31.25 44.65 75.90

Page 9
 Buyback & Dividend computation

2013 1848.36 104.92 34.90 53.23 88.13

2014 2058.90 116.16 39.55 62.44 9.58 101.98 92.40
2015 2043.94 100.48 43.41 64.94 9.43 108.35 98.92
2016 2238.82 106.26 45.70 62.32 7.99 108.02 98.66
2017 2673.61 124.51 48.93 60.85 9.41 109.78 100.62
2018 2506.85 152.78 54.39 96.11 8.81 150.50 141.69
2019 3230.78 157.18 58.50 87.81 8.81 146.31 137.50
2020 3756.07 139.76 57.00 61.66 12.44 118.66 106.22
2021 4766.18 205.35 60.65 104.61 8.68 165.26 156.58
2022 3839.50 198.85 66.98 109.47 7.73 176.45 168.72
Trailing four quar 4288.05 209.11 69.23 97.59 7.99 166.82 158.83
S&P Cap IQ update 186.04 61.57 90.30 7.99 151.88 143.89
Start of year Market Cap Index level Unit adjuster Dividends Buybacks
2023 32133 3859.5 0.12011017 564.57 922.68
2022 40356 4766.18 0.11810338 511.23 881.71
2021 31659 3756.07 0.11864146 480.40 519.69
2019 26760 3230 0.12070254 485.48 728.74
2018 21033 2506.85 0.11918652 456.31 806.41
2017 22821 2673.61 0.11715569 419.77 519.4
2016 19268 2238.82 0.11619369 397.21 536.38
2015 17956 2043.94 0.11383047 382.46 572.16
2014 18245 2058.9 0.11284736 350.43 553.27
2013 16495 1848.36 0.11205577 311.77 475.59
2012 12742 1426.19 0.11192827 280.69 398.91
2011 11385 1257.6 0.11046113 240.20 405.08
2010 11430 1257.64 0.11002975 205.83 298.82
2009 9928 1115.00 0.11230862 195.61 137.65
2008 7852 903.25 0.11503439 247.29 339.64
2007 12868 1468.36 0.11410942 246.59 589.12
2006 12729 1418.30 0.11142274
Ratio
Index units adjuster =
0.1201101671179

Computing the trailing 12 month number (S&P Data updated every quarter on March 15, June 15, Sept 15 and Dec 15)
Quarter Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances
Last quarter $457.43 $143.20 $174.92 Updated October 1, 2023
2 quarters ago $439.08 $146.76 $215.53
3 quarters ago $421.55 $146.07 $211.19
4 quarters ago $422.94 $140.34 $210.84
Sum 1741.00 576.37 812.48 71.1759

S&P Capital IQ data (updated every month and does not match up to the S&P update every three quarters)
Month Earnings Dividends Buybacks Issuances Index Units Adjuster
10/1/23 1657.7024 548.6368 804.65 71.1759 0.112227855 Updated September 1, 2023

Page 10
 Buyback & Dividend computation

Column2

Table will be updated once the year's

final numbers are in. For 2022, for
instance, the update was in March
2023

ated April 1, 2023

ated April 1, 2023

Updated at the start of every quarterLast updated 1-Oct-23

Book Value Inflation

Dividend Buyback Gross Cash Net Cash of Equity at Return on Sales per Inflation adjusted
yield yield Yield Yield start of year Equity share rate Earnings
1.37% 1.25% 2.62% 325.8 11.92% 736.88 1.60% 65.75
1.81% 1.58% 3.39% 338.37 13.61% 674.59 2.48% 76.04
1.61% 1.23% 2.84% 325.72 16.79% 710.81 2.04% 88.52
1.57% 1.78% 3.35% 367.17 18.43% 788.17 3.34% 106.00
1.79% 3.11% 4.90% 414.75 18.43% 874.32 3.34% 115.87
1.77% 3.39% 5.16% 453.06 19.36% 952.51 2.52% 132.42
1.92% 4.58% 6.49% 504.39 16.36% 1025.08 4.11% 117.20
3.15% 4.33% 7.47% 529.59 9.35% 1042.46 -0.02% 70.32
1.97% 1.39% 3.36% 451.37 12.60% 908.4 2.81% 78.55
1.80% 2.61% 4.42% 513.58 16.31% 962.71 1.44% 114.08
2.11% 3.56% 5.67% 579.14 16.65% 1052.83 3.06% 127.44
2.19% 3.13% 5.32% 613.14 15.79% 1092.37 1.76% 125.72

Page 11
 Buyback & Dividend computation

1.89% 2.88% 4.77% 666.97 15.73% 1116.81 1.51% 134.22

1.92% 3.03% 4.95% 4.49% 715.84 16.23% 1163.32 0.66% 147.62
2.12% 3.18% 5.30% 4.84% 726.96 13.82% 1127.13 0.66% 126.86
2.04% 2.78% 4.82% 4.41% 740.29 14.35% 1150.68 2.08% 131.42
1.83% 2.28% 4.11% 3.76% 768.99 16.19% 1231.57 2.11% 150.81
2.17% 3.83% 6.00% 5.65% 826.52 18.48% 1325.89 2.54% 180.47
1.81% 2.72% 4.53% 4.26% 851.62 18.46% 1392.48 2.26% 181.56
1.52% 1.64% 3.16% 2.83% 914.5 15.28% 1364.13 1.30% 159.37
1.27% 2.19% 3.47% 3.29% 927.52 22.14% 1511.1 7.15% 218.53
1.74% 2.85% 4.60% 4.39% 1008.02 19.73% 1714.63 6.42% 198.85
1.61% 2.28% 3.89% 3.70% 914.5 22.87% 1364.13 7.11% 209.11
Updated at the start of every m

t 15 and Dec 15)

d September 1, 2023

Page 12
 Buyback & Dividend computation

1-Jan-20

Last updated
Last updated 1-Oct-21
Updated at the start of every quarter
Updated at the start of every month

Page 13
 Implied ERP- Annual since 1960

Year Earnings YieldDividend Yield T.Bond Rate Implied ERP

1960 5.34% 3.41% 2.76%
1961 4.71% 2.85% 2.35% 2.92%
1962 5.81% 3.40% 3.85% 3.56%
1963 5.51% 3.13% 4.14% 3.38%
1964 5.62% 3.05% 4.21% 3.31%
1965 5.73% 3.06% 4.65% 3.32%
1966 6.74% 3.59% 4.64% 3.68%
1967 5.66% 3.09% 5.70% 3.20%
1968 5.51% 2.93% 6.16% 3.00%
1969 6.63% 3.52% 7.88% 3.74%
1970 5.98% 3.46% 6.50% 3.41%
1971 5.46% 3.10% 5.89% 3.09%
1972 5.23% 2.70% 6.41% 2.72%
1973 8.16% 3.70% 6.90% 4.30%
1974 13.64% 5.43% 7.40% 5.59%
1975 8.55% 4.14% 7.76% 4.13%
1976 9.07% 3.93% 6.81% 4.55%
1977 11.43% 5.11% 7.78% 5.92%
1978 12.11% 5.39% 9.15% 5.72%
1979 13.48% 5.53% 10.33% 6.45%
1980 11.04% 4.74% 12.43% 5.03%
1981 12.39% 5.57% 13.98% 5.73%
1982 9.83% 4.93% 10.47% 4.90%
1983 8.06% 4.32% 11.80% 4.31%
1984 10.07% 4.68% 11.51% 5.11%
1985 7.42% 3.88% 8.99% 3.84%
1986 5.96% 3.38% 7.22% 3.58%
1987 6.49% 3.71% 8.86% 3.99%
1988 8.20% 3.68% 9.14% 3.77%
1989 6.80% 3.32% 7.93% 3.51%
1990 6.58% 3.74% 8.07% 3.89%
1991 4.58% 3.11% 6.70% 3.48%
1992 4.16% 2.90% 6.68% 3.55%
1993 4.25% 2.72% 5.79% 3.17%
1994 5.89% 2.91% 7.82% 3.55%
1995 5.74% 2.30% 5.57% 3.29%
1996 4.83% 2.01% 6.41% 3.20%
1997 4.08% 1.60% 5.74% 2.73%
1998 3.11% 1.32% 4.65% 2.26%
1999 3.07% 1.14% 6.44% 2.05%
2000 3.94% 1.23% 5.11% 2.87%
2001 3.85% 1.37% 5.05% 3.62%
2002 5.23% 1.83% 3.81% 4.10%
2003 4.87% 1.61% 4.25% 3.69%
2004 5.58% 1.60% 4.22% 3.65%
2005 5.47% 1.79% 4.39% 4.08%

Page 14
 Implied ERP- Annual since 1960

2006 6.18% 1.77% 4.70% 4.16%

2007 5.62% 1.89% 4.02% 4.37%
2008 7.24% 3.11% 2.21% 6.43%
2009 5.35% 2.00% 3.84% 4.36%
2010 6.65% 1.84% 3.29% 5.20%
2011 7.72% 2.07% 1.88% 6.01%
2012 7.18% 2.13% 1.76% 5.78%
2013 5.81% 1.96% 3.04% 4.96%
2014 5.49% 1.92% 2.17% 5.78%
2015 5.20% 2.11% 2.27% 6.12%
2016 4.86% 2.01% 2.45% 5.69%
2017 4.42% 1.80% 2.41% 5.08%
2018 5.92% 2.08% 2.68% 5.96%
2019 5.03% 1.82% 1.92% 5.20%
2020 3.68% 1.51% 0.93% 4.72%
2021 4.33% 1.24% 1.51% 4.24%
2022 5.72% 1.78% 3.88% 5.94%
2023 4.61%% 1.47% 3.88%% 4.60%

Page 15
 Historical ERP

Annual Returns on Investments in Value of $100 invested at

S&P 500
S&P 500 Baa (includes
(includes 3-month US T. Corporate Real dividends) 3-month
Year dividends) T.Bill Bond Bond Estate Gold* 3 T.Bill4
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 3.22% 1.49% 0.10% $ 143.81 $ 103.08
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 3.02% -2.06% -0.15% $ 131.88 $ 106.34
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% 0.54% -4.30% 0.10% $ 98.75 $ 111.18
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% -15.68% -8.15% -17.38% $ 55.46 $ 113.74
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% 23.59% -10.47% 21.28% $ 50.66 $ 114.96
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% 12.97% -3.81% 27.26% $ 75.99 $ 116.06
1934 -1.19% 0.28% 7.96% 18.82% 2.91% 31.75% $ 75.09 $ 116.39
1935 46.74% 0.17% 4.47% 13.31% 9.77% 0.43% $ 110.18 $ 116.58
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% 11.38% 3.22% 0.09% $ 145.38 $ 116.78
1937 -35.34% 0.28% 1.38% -4.42% 2.56% -0.23% $ 94.00 $ 117.11
1938 29.28% 0.07% 4.21% 9.24% -0.87% 0.17% $ 121.53 $ 117.18
1939 -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30% -1.23% $ 120.20 $ 117.24
1940 -10.67% 0.04% 5.40% 8.65% 3.31% -1.66% $ 107.37 $ 117.28
1941 -12.77% 0.13% -2.02% 5.01% -8.38% 0.00% $ 93.66 $ 117.43
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% 5.18% 3.33% 0.00% $ 111.61 $ 117.83
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% 8.04% 11.45% 0.00% $ 139.59 $ 118.28
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% 6.57% 16.58% 0.00% $ 166.15 $ 118.73
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% 6.80% 11.78% 2.54% $ 225.67 $ 119.18
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% 2.51% 24.10% 0.00% $ 206.65 $ 119.63
1947 5.20% 0.60% 0.92% 0.26% 21.26% 0.00% $ 217.39 $ 120.35
1948 5.70% 1.05% 1.95% 3.44% 2.06% 0.00% $ 229.79 $ 121.61
1949 18.30% 1.12% 4.66% 5.38% 0.09% -8.70% $ 271.85 $ 122.96
1950 30.81% 1.20% 0.43% 4.24% 3.64% 9.56% $ 355.60 $ 124.44
1951 23.68% 1.52% -0.30% -0.19% 6.05% 0.00% $ 439.80 $ 126.33
1952 18.15% 1.72% 2.27% 4.44% 4.41% -0.35% $ 519.62 $ 128.51
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% 1.62% 11.52% 0.69% $ 513.35 $ 130.94
1954 52.56% 0.94% 3.29% 6.16% 0.92% 0.57% $ 783.18 $ 132.17
1955 32.60% 1.73% -1.34% 2.04% 0.00% -0.03% ### $ 134.45
1956 7.44% 2.63% -2.26% -2.35% 0.91% -0.11% ### $ 137.98
1957 -10.46% 3.23% 6.80% -0.72% 2.72% -0.11% $ 999.05 $ 142.43
1958 43.72% 1.77% -2.10% 6.43% 0.66% 0.43% ### $ 144.95
1959 12.06% 3.39% -2.65% 1.57% 0.11% 0.00% ### $ 149.86
1960 0.34% 2.88% 11.64% 6.66% 0.77% 0.48% ### $ 154.18
1961 26.64% 2.35% 2.06% 5.10% 0.98% -0.06% ### $ 157.81
1962 -8.81% 2.77% 5.69% 6.50% 0.32% -0.06% ### $ 162.19
1963 22.61% 3.16% 1.68% 5.46% 2.14% -0.40% ### $ 167.31

Page 16
 Historical ERP

1964 16.42% 3.55% 3.73% 5.16% 1.26% 0.03% ### $ 173.25

1965 12.40% 3.95% 0.72% 3.19% 1.66% 0.06% ### $ 180.09
1966 -9.97% 4.86% 2.91% -3.45% 1.22% 0.03% ### $ 188.84
1967 23.80% 4.31% -1.58% 0.90% 2.32% -0.51% ### $ 196.98
1968 10.81% 5.34% 3.27% 4.85% 4.13% 12.47% ### $ 207.49
1969 -8.24% 6.67% -5.01% -2.03% 6.99% 5.01% ### $ 221.32
1970 3.56% 6.39% 16.75% 5.65% 8.22% -9.45% ### $ 235.47
1971 14.22% 4.33% 9.79% 14.00% 4.24% 16.69% ### $ 245.67
1972 18.76% 4.07% 2.82% 11.41% 2.98% 48.78% ### $ 255.68
1973 -14.31% 7.03% 3.66% 4.32% 3.42% 72.96% ### $ 273.66
1974 -25.90% 7.83% 1.99% -4.38% 10.07% 66.15% ### $ 295.08
1975 37.00% 5.78% 3.61% 11.05% 6.77% -24.80% ### $ 312.12
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% 19.75% 8.18% -4.10% ### $ 327.65
1977 -6.98% 5.27% 1.29% 9.95% 14.65% 22.64% ### $ 344.91
1978 6.51% 7.19% -0.78% 3.14% 15.72% 37.01% ### $ 369.71
1979 18.52% 10.07% 0.67% -2.01% 13.74% 126.55% ### $ 406.93
1980 31.74% 11.43% -2.99% -3.32% 7.40% 15.19% ### $ 453.46
1981 -4.70% 14.03% 8.20% 8.46% 5.10% -32.60% ### $ 517.06
1982 20.42% 10.61% 32.81% 29.05% 0.56% 15.62% ### $ 571.94
1983 22.34% 8.61% 3.20% 16.19% 4.75% -16.80% ### $ 621.19
1984 6.15% 9.52% 13.73% 15.62% 4.68% -19.38% ### $ 680.35
1985 31.24% 7.48% 25.71% 23.86% 7.47% 6.00% ### $ 731.23
1986 18.49% 5.98% 24.28% 21.49% 9.61% 18.96% ### $ 774.95
1987 5.81% 5.78% -4.96% 2.29% 7.88% 24.53% ### $ 819.70
1988 16.54% 6.67% 8.22% 15.12% 7.21% -15.26% ### $ 874.35
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% 15.79% 4.38% -2.84% ### $ 945.28
1990 -3.06% 7.49% 6.24% 6.14% -0.69% -3.11% ### ###
1991 30.23% 5.38% 15.00% 17.85% -0.16% -8.56% ### ###
1992 7.49% 3.43% 9.36% 12.17% 0.82% -5.73% ### ###
1993 9.97% 3.00% 14.21% 16.43% 2.16% 17.68% ### ###
1994 1.33% 4.25% -8.04% -1.32% 2.51% -2.17% ### ###
1995 37.20% 5.49% 23.48% 20.16% 1.80% 0.98% ### ###
1996 22.68% 5.01% 1.43% 4.79% 2.42% -4.59% ### ###
1997 33.10% 5.06% 9.94% 11.83% 4.02% -21.41% ### ###
1998 28.34% 4.78% 14.92% 7.95% 6.45% -0.83% ### ###
1999 20.89% 4.64% -8.25% 0.84% 7.68% 0.85% ### ###
2000 -9.03% 5.82% 16.66% 9.33% 9.28% -5.44% ### ###
2001 -11.85% 3.39% 5.57% 7.82% 6.67% 0.75% ### ###
2002 -21.97% 1.60% 15.12% 12.18% 9.56% 25.57% ### ###
2003 28.36% 1.01% 0.38% 13.53% 9.82% 19.89% ### ###
2004 10.74% 1.37% 4.49% 9.89% 13.64% 4.65% ### ###

Page 17
 Historical ERP

2005 4.83% 3.15% 2.87% 4.92% 13.51% 17.77% ### ###

2006 15.61% 4.73% 1.96% 7.05% 1.73% 23.20% ### ###
2007 5.48% 4.35% 10.21% 3.15% -5.40% 31.92% ### ###
2008 -36.55% 1.37% 20.10% -5.07% -12.00% 4.32% ### ###
2009 25.94% 0.15% -11.12% 23.33% -3.85% 25.04% ### ###
2010 14.82% 0.14% 8.46% 8.35% -4.12% 29.24% ### ###
2011 2.10% 0.05% 16.04% 12.58% -3.88% 12.02% ### ###
2012 15.89% 0.09% 2.97% 10.12% 6.44% 5.68% ### ###
2013 32.15% 0.06% -9.10% -1.06% 10.72% -27.61% ### ###
2014 13.52% 0.03% 10.75% 10.38% 4.51% 0.12% ### ###
2015 1.38% 0.05% 1.28% -0.70% 5.21% -12.11% ### ###
2016 11.77% 0.32% 0.69% 10.37% 5.31% 8.10% ### ###
2017 21.61% 0.93% 2.80% 9.72% 6.21% 12.66% ### ###
2018 -4.23% 1.94% -0.02% -2.76% 4.53% -0.93% ### ###
2019 31.21% 1.55% 9.64% 15.33% 3.69% 19.08% ### ###
2020 18.02% 0.09% 11.33% 10.41% 10.35% 24.17% ### ###
2021 28.47% 0.06% -4.42% 0.93% 18.91% -3.75% ### ###
2022 -18.04% 2.02% -17.83% -15.14% 5.67% 0.55% ### ###
2023 26.06% 5.07% 3.88% 8.74% 6.29% 13.26% ### ###

Page 18
 Historical ERP

Value of $100 invested at start of 1928 in Annual Risk Premium

Baa Stocks - Historical

US T. Corporate Real Stocks - Stocks - Baa Corp risk
Bond5 Bond2 Estate2 Gold2 Bills Bonds Bond premium
$ 100.84 $ 103.22 $ 101.49 $ 100.10 40.73% 42.98% 40.59%
$ 105.07 $ 106.33 $ 99.40 $ 99.95 -11.46% -12.50% -11.32%
$ 109.85 $ 106.91 $ 95.13 $ 100.05 -29.67% -29.66% -25.66%
$ 107.03 $ 90.14 $ 87.38 $ 82.66 -46.15% -41.28% -28.16%
$ 116.44 $ 111.41 $ 78.23 $ 100.24 -9.71% -17.43% -32.23%
$ 118.60 $ 125.86 $ 75.25 $ 127.57 49.02% 48.13% 37.02%
$ 128.05 $ 149.54 $ 77.44 $ 168.07 -1.47% -9.15% -20.00%
$ 133.78 $ 169.44 $ 85.00 $ 168.80 46.57% 42.27% 33.43%
$ 140.49 $ 188.73 $ 87.73 $ 168.94 31.77% 26.93% 20.56%
$ 142.43 $ 180.39 $ 89.98 $ 168.56 -35.61% -36.72% -30.92%
$ 148.43 $ 197.05 $ 89.20 $ 168.85 29.22% 25.07% 20.05%
$ 154.98 $ 212.78 $ 88.04 $ 166.76 -1.14% -5.51% -9.08%
$ 163.35 $ 231.18 $ 90.95 $ 164.00 -10.71% -16.08% -19.32%
$ 160.04 $ 242.76 $ 83.32 $ 164.00 -12.90% -10.75% -17.78%
$ 163.72 $ 255.33 $ 86.10 $ 164.00 18.83% 16.88% 13.99%
$ 167.79 $ 275.88 $ 95.95 $ 164.00 24.68% 22.57% 17.02%
$ 172.12 $ 293.99 $ 111.87 $ 164.00 18.65% 16.45% 12.46%
$ 178.67 $ 313.98 $ 125.04 $ 168.17 35.44% 32.02% 29.02%
$ 184.26 $ 321.85 $ 155.18 $ 168.17 -8.81% -11.56% -10.94%
$ 185.95 $ 322.70 $ 188.17 $ 168.17 4.60% 4.28% 4.94%
$ 189.58 $ 333.79 $ 192.05 $ 168.17 4.66% 3.75% 2.27%
$ 198.42 $ 351.74 $ 192.22 $ 153.54 17.19% 13.64% 12.93%
$ 199.27 $ 366.65 $ 199.22 $ 168.22 29.60% 30.38% 26.57%
$ 198.68 $ 365.95 $ 211.26 $ 168.22 22.16% 23.97% 23.87%
$ 203.19 $ 382.20 $ 220.57 $ 167.64 16.43% 15.88% 13.71%
$ 211.61 $ 388.39 $ 245.98 $ 168.80 -3.10% -5.35% -2.83%
$ 218.57 $ 412.31 $ 248.25 $ 169.77 51.62% 49.27% 46.41%
$ 215.65 $ 420.74 $ 248.25 $ 169.72 30.87% 33.93% 30.55%
$ 210.79 $ 410.84 $ 250.52 $ 169.53 4.81% 9.70% 9.79%
$ 225.11 $ 407.89 $ 257.33 $ 169.33 -13.68% -17.25% -9.74%
$ 220.39 $ 434.11 $ 259.03 $ 170.06 41.95% 45.82% 37.29%
$ 214.56 $ 440.95 $ 259.31 $ 170.06 8.67% 14.70% 10.48%
$ 239.53 $ 470.33 $ 261.30 $ 170.88 -2.55% -11.30% -6.33% 6.11%
$ 244.46 $ 494.32 $ 263.85 $ 170.78 24.28% 24.58% 21.54% 6.62%
$ 258.38 $ 526.43 $ 264.70 $ 170.69 -11.58% -14.51% -15.31% 5.97%
$ 262.74 $ 555.19 $ 270.38 $ 170.01 19.45% 20.93% 17.15% 6.36%

Page 19
 Historical ERP

$ 272.53 $ 583.85 $ 273.78 $ 170.06 12.87% 12.69% 11.25% 6.53%

$ 274.49 $ 602.47 $ 278.32 $ 170.16 8.45% 11.68% 9.21% 6.66%
$ 282.47 $ 581.72 $ 281.72 $ 170.20 -14.83% -12.88% -6.53% 6.11%
$ 278.01 $ 586.92 $ 288.25 $ 169.33 19.50% 25.38% 22.91% 6.57%
$ 287.11 $ 615.36 $ 300.17 $ 190.46 5.48% 7.54% 5.97% 6.60%
$ 272.71 $ 602.90 $ 321.16 $ 200.00 -14.91% -3.23% -6.22% 6.33%
$ 318.41 $ 636.96 $ 347.55 $ 181.10 -2.83% -13.19% -2.09% 5.90%
$ 349.57 $ 726.14 $ 362.30 $ 211.34 9.89% 4.43% 0.22% 5.87%
$ 359.42 $ 808.99 $ 373.08 $ 314.44 14.68% 15.94% 7.35% 6.08%
$ 372.57 $ 843.92 $ 385.85 $ 543.85 -21.34% -17.97% -18.63% 5.50%
$ 379.98 $ 806.95 $ 424.72 $ 903.59 -33.73% -27.89% -21.52% 4.64%
$ 393.68 $ 896.12 $ 453.48 $ 679.51 31.22% 33.39% 25.95% 5.17%
$ 456.61 ### $ 490.57 $ 651.65 18.86% 7.85% 4.08% 5.22%
$ 462.50 ### $ 562.46 $ 799.18 -12.25% -8.27% -16.93% 4.93%
$ 458.90 ### $ 650.90 ### -0.68% 7.29% 3.37% 4.97%
$ 461.98 ### $ 740.35 ### 8.45% 17.85% 20.53% 5.21%
$ 448.17 ### $ 795.11 ### 20.30% 34.72% 35.05% 5.73%
$ 484.91 ### $ 835.62 ### -18.73% -12.90% -13.16% 5.37%
$ 644.04 ### $ 840.33 ### 9.80% -12.40% -8.63% 5.10%
$ 664.65 ### $ 880.25 ### 13.73% 19.14% 6.14% 5.34%
$ 755.92 ### $ 921.43 ### -3.38% -7.59% -9.47% 5.12%
$ 950.29 ### $ 990.27 ### 23.76% 5.52% 7.37% 5.13%
### ### ### ### 12.52% -5.79% -2.99% 4.97%
### ### ### ### 0.04% 10.77% 3.52% 5.07%
### ### ### ### 9.87% 8.31% 1.42% 5.12%
### ### ### ### 23.36% 13.78% 15.69% 5.24%
### ### ### ### -10.56% -9.30% -9.20% 5.00%
### ### ### ### 24.86% 15.23% 12.38% 5.14%
### ### ### ### 4.06% -1.87% -4.68% 5.03%
### ### ### ### 6.97% -4.24% -6.46% 4.90%
### ### ### ### -2.92% 9.36% 2.65% 4.97%
### ### ### ### 31.71% 13.71% 17.04% 5.08%
### ### ### ### 17.68% 21.25% 17.89% 5.30%
### ### ### ### 28.04% 23.16% 21.27% 5.53%
### ### ### ### 23.56% 13.42% 20.39% 5.63%
### ### ### ### 16.25% 29.14% 20.04% 5.96%
### ### ### ### -14.85% -25.69% -18.36% 5.51%
### ### ### ### -15.24% -17.42% -19.67% 5.17%
### ### ### ### -23.57% -37.08% -34.14% 4.53%
### ### ### ### 27.34% 27.98% 14.82% 4.82%
### ### ### ### 9.37% 6.25% 0.85% 4.84%

Page 20
 Historical ERP

### ### ### ### 1.69% 1.97% -0.08% 4.80%

### ### ### ### 10.89% 13.65% 8.56% 4.91%
### ### ### ### 1.13% -4.73% 2.33% 4.79%
### ### ### ### -37.92% -56.65% -31.49% 3.88%
### ### ### ### 25.79% 37.05% 2.61% 4.29%
### ### ### ### 14.68% 6.36% 6.47% 4.31%
### ### ### ### 2.05% -13.94% -10.49% 4.10%
### ### ### ### 15.80% 12.92% 5.77% 4.20%
### ### ### ### 32.09% 41.25% 33.20% 4.62%
### ### ### ### 13.49% 2.78% 3.14% 4.60%
### ### ### ### 1.33% 0.09% 2.08% 4.54%
### ### ### ### 11.46% 11.08% 1.41% 4.62%
### ### ### ### 20.67% 18.80% 11.88% 4.77%
### ### ### ### -6.17% -4.21% -1.46% 4.66%
### ### ### ### 29.66% 21.58% 15.88% 4.83%
### ### ### ### 17.93% 6.69% 7.61% 4.84%
### ### ### ### 28.41% 32.88% 27.54% 5.13%
### ### ### ### -20.06% -0.21% -2.89% 5.06%
### ### ### ### 20.99% 22.18% 17.33% 5.23%

Page 21
 Input Choices

Yes/No Change in Riskfree Rate

Yes Immediate (starting now)
No Gradual (over 5 years)
End (at the end of 5 years)

Page 22