GLOBAL WARMINGPRINCIPLE, FACTS & CAUSES

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE PROJECT SUBMITTED BY ARUN KRISHNAN K B090458ME

CONTENTS :1. INTRODUCTION 2. HOW DO WE KNOW THAT GLOBAL WARMING HAS TAKEN PLACE??? 3. INTERESTING FACTS!!! 4. CLIMATE MODELS 5. CAUSES 6. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING 7. SOLUTIONS 8. CONCLUSION 9. BIBLIOGRAPHY

1.INTRODUCTION:The global warming hypothesis originated in 1896 when Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, developed the theory that carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels would cause global temperatures to rise by trapping excess heat in the earths atmosphere. Arrhenius understood that the earths climate is heated by a process known as the greenhouse effect. While close to half the solar radiation reaching the earths surface is reflected back into space, the remainder is absorbed by land masses and oceans, warming the earths surface and atmosphere. This warming process radiates energy, most of which passes through the atmosphere and back into space. However, small concentrations of greenhouse gases like water vapor and carbon dioxide convert some of this energy to heat and either absorb it or reflect it back to the earths surface. These heat-trapping gases work much like a greenhouse: Sunlight passes through, but a certain amount of radiated heat remains trapped. The greenhouse effect plays an essential role in preventing the planet from entering a perpetual ice age: Remove the greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and the earths temperature would plummet by around 60 degrees Fahrenheit (F). However, scientists who have elaborated on Arrheniuss theory of global warming are concerned that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing an unprecedented rise in global temperatures, with potentially harmful consequences for the environment and human health. In 1988, the United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comprising more than two thousand scientists responsible for studying global warmings potential impact on climate. According to the IPCC, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by 31 percent, methane by 151 percent, and nitrous oxide by 17 percent since 1750. Over the twentieth century, the IPCC believes that global temperatures increased close to 0.5 degree Centigrade (C), the largest increase of any century during the past one thousand years. The 1990s, according to IPCC data, was the warmest decade recorded in the Northern Hemisphere since records were first taken in 1861, with 1998 the warmest year ever recorded. Given this data, many scientists are convinced of a direct correlation between rising

global temperatures and the emission of greenhouse gases stemming from human activities such as automobile use, the production of electricity from coal-fired power plants, and agricultural and deforestation practices. Concludes the IPCC in its Third Assessment Report, The present carbon dioxide concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. . . . In light of new evidence . . . most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the [human-induced] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Based on IPCC projections that global temperatures will increase by 2.5 to 10.4 degrees F between 1990 and 2100, scientists and environmentalists are predicting that global warming will have mostly negative consequences for the worlds climate. Kelly Reed of the environmental organization Greenpeace states that the effects of global warming not only include rising global temperatures, but an increase in floods, droughts, wildfires, heat waves, intensified hurricanes and the spread of infectious disease. Accordingly, those who share Reeds view of global warming believe that the worlds governments must take immediate action to limit greenhouse gas emissions. In response to these pressures, a growing band of skeptical scientists are questioning the validity of the global warming theory. According to these critics, the IPCC bases its predictions for rising global temperatures on faulty computer climate models, which exaggerate the climates response to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases while failing to accurately reproduce the motions of the atmosphere. Explains Richard L. Lindzen, a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Present models have large errors . . . [and] are unable to calculate correctly either the present average temperature of the Earth or the temperature ranges from the equator to the poles. . . . Models . . . amplify the effects of increasing carbon dioxide. Lindzen asserts that if models accurately represented the role of the major greenhouse gaswater vaporin the climate system, they would predict a warming of no more than 1.7 degrees C if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were doubled. This warming is significantly less than the 4 to 5 degrees C temperature increase forecasted by IPCC models under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Global warming skeptics also argue that natural climate fluctuation, not human activity, is responsible for the past centurys rising temperatures. According to S. Fred Singer, a professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, the earths climate has never been steady and has continually warmed and cooled over the course of geologic time without any assistance from human activity. Says Singer, The human component [in recent global warming] is thought to be quite

small. . . . The climate cooled between 1940 and 1975, just as industrial activity grew rapidly after WWII. It has been difficult to reconcile this cooling with the observed increases in greenhouse gases. Singer also argues that temperature observations since 1979 are in dispute: Surface readings with thermometers show a rise of about 0.1 degree C per decade, while data from satellites and balloonborne radiosondes [miniature transmitters] show no warmingwith possible indications of a slight coolingin the lower atmosphere between 1979 and 1997. Until the science behind the global warming theory is more settled, Singer and other skeptical scientists advocate placing no limits on the consumption of fossil fuels. Politicians, the media, big business, scientists, and environmentalists all play conflicting roles in the global warming debate as public policy collides head-on with special interests and a complex scientific theory.

2.How do we know that global warming has taken place???

We know that global warming has taken place because millions of temperature measurements have been taken over many decades from all points on the earth. The measurement of global warming is of a wide variety of statistics over a period of time and therefore can be quite difficult to explain and understand. The global average air temperature shows a linear trend of 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92] C for the 100-years from 1906-2005 This sounds like a small increase and is easily misinterpreted For example some would say that when 2006 is described as being "the hottest in Britain since 1659" (when temperatures began to be recorded in central England) it simply means that it was as warm in 2006 as it was in 1659 and there wasn't any worry about global warming then, so why is there now? Hottest since 1659 means that was when temperatures started to be recorded - not that 1659 was the 2nd hottest year ever. Past record years have come pretty much at random and certainly not in groups. The fourth hottest year in Britain since 1659 was 1949, 8 of the 10 hottest years since 1860 have all occurred in the last decade. Daily variations in temperature can commonly be from 5C to 10C which makes

the average 0.74C rise difficult to spot by the individual in the shorter term. Some parts of the world are showing the effects of warming more than others. The Northern hemisphere for instance appears to be warming more than the Southern hemisphere, possibly because there is more land in the north and more sea in the south

Northern hemisphere average annual temperatures compared to the 1961-1990 average

3.INTERESTING FACTS!!!!
Average temperatures have climbed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degree Celsius) around the world since 1880, much of this in recent decades, according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The rate of warming is increasing. The 20th century's last two decades were the hottest in 400 years and possibly the warmest for several millennia, according to a number of climate studies. And the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that 11 of the past 12 years are among the dozen warmest since 1850. The Arctic is feeling the effects the most. Average temperatures in Alaska, western Canada, and eastern Russia have risen at twice the global average, according to the multinational Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report

compiled between 2000 and 2004. Arctic ice is rapidly disappearing, and the region may have its first completely ice-free summer by 2040 or earlier. Polar bears and indigenous cultures are already suffering from the sea-ice loss. Glaciers and mountain snows are rapidly meltingfor example, Montana's Glacier National Park now has only 27 glaciers, versus 150 in 1910. In the Northern Hemisphere, thaws also come a week earlier in spring and freezes begin a week later. Coral reefs, which are highly sensitive to small changes in water temperature, suffered the worst bleachingor die-off in response to stressever recorded in 1998, with some areas seeing bleach rates of 70 percent. Experts expect these sorts of events to increase in frequency and intensity in the next 50 years as sea temperatures rise. An upsurge in the amount of extreme weather events, such as wildfires, heat waves, and strong tropical storms, is also attributed in part to climate change by some experts. The current rate of change is much, much faster than any changes have ever before as far as we are aware and this is a real problem as while animals and plants can adapt to slow changes by migration for instance, a rapid change will inevitably lead to large extinctions of many species. The human population of the earth is also dependent on a stable climate for established agriculture and also cities, millions if not billions of people stand to suffer from the consequences of global warming mainly the most vulnerable people in the undeveloped nations (ref). Climate changes in the past over Geological time periods (millions and tens of millions of years) have been very drastic. During cold periods, much of the planet, even thousands of miles from both poles have been ice-covered by huge glaciers. During warm periods, the same regions may have been subtropical or even tropical. Accompanying this have been large changes in sealevel so that some areas of land have either become flooded completely or left high and dry. It is potentially an enormous problem as if the global temperature rises to a level where it is affecting the Antarctic ice-caps, they may begin to melt and cause sea-level rises globally measured in meters. There are a great many cities around the world that are on the coast and they would be flooded and probably have to be abandoned. There are also a great many countries,

especially poorer countries where a large part of the population live in coastal regions. In this case the farm-land would be flooded and the people left homeless and without the ability to feed themselves. In some cases entire island nations (albeit small ones) in the Pacific Ocean could simply disappear. The earth's weather is the result of the effect of heat energy coming from the sun combined with the atmosphere and oceans and the fact that the earth is rotating about its axis and around the sun.Different parts of the earth heat up and cool down at different times of the day and year depending on incoming radiation, this causes air and water to move as winds and currents. In other words, the energy from the sun stirs up the earths atmosphere and oceans and causes what we call "weather".The greater the amount of heat that arrives or gets kept behind means that the weather becomes more energetic. Global warming means more energy is retained by the earth to power the weather, so we are likely to get more frequent and more extreme weather conditions as various kinds of storms as this energy dissipates within the atmosphere. A Scary Figure: 150,000 Dead Every Year. Global warming has changed precipitation patterns around the world, disrupting traditional agricultural practices that you and the rest of the world depend on to live. The area of land on the Earth suffering from drought conditions has doubled since 1970. Insurance costs in the coastal areas of the United States have escalated dramatically. These are the effects you can see already, and climate change is only beginning to make itself felt. Climate-related deaths will double in 25 years according to a 2005 report from the World Health Organization. Climate change is already tied to 150,000 deaths globally every single year. These deaths are caused by more frequent heat waves and droughts, as well as by floods and more powerful storms linked to climate change. Global warming has increased deaths in urban areas as heat waves have exacerbated the effects of smog and related respiratory problems.

4.CLIMATE MODELS:Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken

to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.

The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 C (5.4 F). A climate model is a computerized representation of the five components of the climate system: Atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere. Such models are based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. There can be components which represent air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and sea; the transfer of heat and moisture from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere; chemical and biological processes; and others. Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. Results from models can also vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and the model's climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC's 2007 projections is caused by (1) the use of multiple models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations, (2) the use of differing estimates of humanities' future greenhouse gas emissions, (3) any additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its report, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost. The models do not assume the climate will warm due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Instead the models predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative transfer and other physical processes. One of the mathematical results of these complex equations is a prediction whether warming or cooling will occur. Recent research has called special attention to the need to refine models with respect to the effect of clouds and the carbon cycle. Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various

natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate. Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted. Precipitation increased proportional to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than current global climate models predict.

5.CAUSES:Global Warming is caused by many things. The causes are split up into two groups, man-made or anthropogenic causes, and natural causes. Natural CausesNatural causes are causes created by nature. One natural cause is a release of methane gas from arctic tundra and wetlands. Methane is a greenhouse gas. A greenhouse gas is a gas that traps heat in the earth's atmosphere. Another natural cause is that the earth goes through a cycle of climate change. This climate change usually lasts about 40,000 years. Man-made CausesMan-made causes probably do the most damage. There are many man-made causes. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Pollution comes in many shapes and sizes. Burning fossil fuels is one thing that causes pollution. Fossil fuels are fuels made of organic matter such as coal, or oil. When fossil fuels are burned they give off a green house gas called CO2. Also mining coal and oil allows methane to escape. How does it escape? Methane is naturally in the ground. When coal or oil is mined you have to dig up the earth a little. When you dig up the fossil fuels you dig up the methane as well.

Another major man-made cause of Global Warming is population. More people means more food, and more methods of transportation, right? That means more methane because there will be more burning of fossil fuels, and more agriculture. Now your probably thinking, "Wait a minute, you said agriculture is going to be damaged by Global Warming, but now you're saying agriculture is going to help cause Global Warming?" Well, have you ever been in a barn filled with animals and you smell something terrible? You're smelling methane. Another source of methane is manure. Because more food is needed we have to raise food. Animals like cows are a source of food which means more manure and methane. Another problem with the increasing population is transportation. More people means more cars, and more cars means more pollution. Also, many people have more than one car. Since CO2 contributes to global warming, the increase in population makes the problem worse because we breathe out CO2. Also, the trees that convert our CO2 to oxygen are being demolished because we're using the land that we cut the trees down from as property for our homes and buildings. We are not replacing the trees (an important part of our eco system), so we are constantly taking advantage of our natural resources and giving nothing back in return.

6.EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

The effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or economic. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007a:10), "[most] of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in [human greenhouse gas] concentrations". It is predicted that future climate changes will include further global warming (i.e., an upward trend in global mean temperature), sea level rise, and a probable increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to implement policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases.

7.Global Warming Solutions

What Can We Do?

The evidence that humans are causing global warming is strong, but the question of what to do about it remains controversial. Economics, sociology, and politics are all important factors in planning for the future. Even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) today, the Earth would still warm by another degree Fahrenheit or so. But what we do from today forward makes a big difference. Depending on our choices, scientists predict that the Earth could eventually warm by as little as 2.5 degrees or as much as 10 degrees Fahrenheit. A commonly cited goal is to stabilize GHG concentrations around 450-550 parts per million (ppm), or about twice pre-industrial levels. This is the point at which many believe the most damaging impacts of climate change can be avoided. Current concentrations are about 380 ppm, which means there isnt much time to lose. According to the IPCC, wed have to reduce GHG emissions by 50% to 80% of what theyre on track to be in the next century to reach this level. Is this possible??? Many people and governments are already working hard to cut greenhouse gases, and everyone can help. Researchers Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow at Princeton University have suggested one approach that they call stabilization wedges. This means reducing GHG emissions from a variety of sources with technologies available in the next few decades, rather than relying on an enormous change in a single area. They suggest 7 wedges that could each reduce emissions, and all of them together could hold emissions at approximately current levels for the next 50 years, putting us on a potential path to stabilize around 500 ppm. There are many possible wedges, including improvements to energy efficiency and vehicle fuel economy (so less energy has to be produced), and increases in wind and solar power, hydrogen produced from renewable sources, biofuels (produced from crops), natural gas, and nuclear power. There is also the potential to capture the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and store it undergrounda process called carbon sequestration. In addition to reducing the gases we emit to the atmosphere, we can also increase the amount of gases we take out of the atmosphere. Plants and trees absorb CO2 as they grow, sequestering carbon naturally. Increasing forestlands and making changes to the way we farm could increase the amount of carbon were storing.

Some of these technologies have drawbacks, and different communities will make different decisions about how to power their lives, but the good news is that there are a variety of options to put us on a path toward a stable climate.

8.CONCLUSION
The fact that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities cause the Earth to heat up and that this global warming changes the climate cannot be altered. This is a fact that so many scientific reports show the correctness of. Only people with economic interest in remaining a high use of fossil fuels have questioned the correctness. To solve the problem is extremely important. The impacts of the industrialized countries emissions of greenhouse gases will also harm the developing countries. Therefore it is important that the members of the United Nations were able to agree on a solution to the problem: The Kyoto Treaty. Although it was just a tiny step in the right direction it showed that the industrialized countries at least cared a little about the environment.

9.BIBLIOGRAPHY:1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/ globalwarming.com www.globalwarming.org/ www.causesofglobalwarming.net/ http://www.globalwarmingsolutions.org/