International Jour of Fatigue 167 (2023) 107218 Contents lists available nt ScienceDirect International Journal of Fatigue Journal homepage: www slsevier.comlocateifatigue = = Probabilistic stress and strain-life fatigue crack initiation models with mean stress effects and life-dependent scatter considering runouts Marco Antonio Meggiolaro ’, Jaime Tupiassit Pinho de Castro Dipenentf Mechanar Poii! Catal nosy of ode nar Ran Maris de SSo io 25- Oe Rode a, 2) 24S 90 rat ‘Well ibn [A powerful probabilistic famework i proposed to account for itedependent data seater in filgue rack initiation (FCD predictions considering mean stress effects. tis applicable to any ses, tin, ney: fatge damage parameter (DP, lng ste logit of DP fo a ives FC if Nea beastie aloe 3 ‘vee pauaneer Wellull (WP) dsutbuion. The proposed appvoech, waned PDP, does nor teqve the assumption of any particulate suution for NY thus it can Ht the shape of virtually any equation onetaing DP ad NY, Hence ican deal snnlkaneusly with LCF, HCF and VHF FI data, consitering mean fea effects and runout aatetes The apponch deals with hetecucedaicy though a user-defined ie ‘dependent sce function of Ny allowing the consideration of varlable data seater log-log scale, The DPA performance is evainted ating the Walker Bqivalent Stain (WES) equation proposed by the ators, ‘which ie genealza to expel consider fig init, Procedates ae propaed to calibrate Bt ses ait "Salm based versions ofthe detetminie WES le FCT model, aswell xo optinize the WP paramere frm {he resting PWESN probbiisie model, considering tunout data when availabe. A coupat computational ‘plementation ofthe eaibraion routines s presented as wel. The WSP bese P'WESN pobeblisti models rauated for 37 metal ally data see fot the Iteratre tha ache non-oro sean stresses an a leat ‘enty specimens each, totaling 1498 ualaal fatigue speines, including 147 runous. This eompreensve auaon shows thatthe proposed probable model abet aceon for tens and compressive mea ates effec, as well a 0 calrate the usually observed increase in experimental Sct for longer FCL Lives ‘om the random distribution of highly localized geometric and micro stryenural details, which form the weak sites requited ro activate the micro eyele plasticity processes needed (0 initiate fatigue eracks at critical points 1. Introduction, ‘To design ora given reliability, explicidy considering the dispersion ‘of mechanical properties and of sevice loads in structural analyses isa legant way 10 avoid excessive conservatism [1]. It is also useful to specify, lacking enough experience, suitable safety factors for new ‘rots, Inthe fatigue case, reliability isthe probability of surviving a given life Nyunder specified loads. Clearly, ifthe probability of failures , then the tllailty R= (1 ~ P)is the probability of survival However, to design fora given reliability sot just elegant. net, it isa practical need, since the dispersion of ives measured in fatigue eek iniiaton (PCD tests tends to De high. Indeed, FCI lives of identical specimens can havea large seater even when tested under xed loading ranges do oF Ae and peaks gpa the (Wo FCI driving forees, «no negligible issue even in deterministic design routines. This is espe cially ere under macroscopically linear elastic conditions associated with long FCI ives. Fatigue damage accumulation in such eases depends * Gonesponing autos mal odes inayat (MLA. Megalo), beps//Aoog/10.1016/ sige 2022 107915 Albeit Ar ind oar ae the acca FE driving forces in long lives, many damage paraneter (DP) definitions consider thet through eon. binations of the tess amplitude = 7/2 ad ofthe mean component m= Gnae ~ 6/2. FC curves ae usually fitted to the logarithnuie mean ofthe lives from each specimen group tested under the same (0, en) level. According tothe ASTME739 standard (2), several specimens mist be tested under a lens four or five diferent lon muplitdes co abt 8 proper Fol curve fing at ech fixed aI the assocated probability density funtion (PDF) was symmetsic, which soften notte case in FC, ‘thea uch average iting wold be associated with a 50% reliability I this PDF is known and calibrated, then FCI eneves ean be fited co rellabilies RI ¢ 50%, to generate the so-called percentile curves for probabilities of faire below 50% (Le. for RI > 0.5), very useful ool for mechanical designers. casio@ pe sioby UTP, Casto). Received 22 Angst 2022; Received in vse frm 29 September 2022 Accepted 0 September 2022 Available online 7 Octobe: 2022 (0142119876 2022 sci Le All sights reservedMA, Megan en TP. Care Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 Nomenclature @——LMparameters vector AD Anderson-Darting axial fatigue strength exponent « ‘xin Fatigue duetlty exponent co Castillo Cael, CDF ctnmlative distribution function CM Coffin Manson PDF conditional probability density function DP, DP, damage parameter and is value forthe * data pol ‘DP minimum threshold of DP in the CC approsch DP, vale of DP at the fatigue limit E——naodulus of elasticity AN) life-dependent term of the FCT equation FL fatigue rack initiation FGLS feasible generalized last squares ho) hazard function Hc high-eyee fatigue JJ) EME design matrix and is row L elinood fanedon, Lor oweycle fatigue EM Levenberg Marquardt In, Jog, logarithmic functions tothe bases e 2.71828 and 10 im number of poins in a data sec MLE mnxinvu likelihood est Xp nt threshold of Nin the CC approach NN, FCtlifeaud its value forthe? data pot Nr transition life (OLS ordinary least squares probability offre Pte) accumulnted probability ofa random variable pC) PDF ofa random variable PO) CPDF ofa random vriable x fora slven y PDF probably density function Ran to masini stress ratio RI elisilty FP corffcient of determination (equated) SON) scedastc faction S skewness of a PDF ‘Sm Se fatigue strength and figue Tinie Sp ultimate tensile strengtt SWT Smith Watson-Topper V content of variation VAL variable amplitude londing very high eel fatigue W2P — ewoparameter Weibull WSP three-parameter Weibull WES Walker equivalent strain FWP shape parameter 7 WESexponent Yor vals for teasile and compressive mean streses 17 amma function 4.6 Wa and Gumbel scale parameters ‘Sa, Ae stress and stain ranges fe noma stain amplitude feug WES ampliude ©) axial fatigue ductility coefitent 214° WSP and Gumbel locaton parameters A” tat damping parameter mean ofa POF 0 inn threshold of wn the CC approach Co Ge noma tess apie ad meen 7; axial fatigue strength coetcent Sax peak applied normal sress 3 variance of «POF xy) conditional variance of x emdom variable fora given y @% squared deviation of the # data point —_nuny variable ofthe data point ‘The variance of such PDF distributions usually are noe uniform. Indeed, the setter of log(Np In the high-eyee fatigue (HCE) regime Is ‘often much highee than in low-eyele fatigue (LCF) experiments, where Jog) is the logarithmic function (usualy to the base 10), This non- ‘eonstant dispersion can be quantified by a Ife or a load anpliide- dependent coefficient of variation V = @/a, the ratio between the ‘standard deviation and the mean of the adopted random variable atthe ‘considered life ¢ ond level Deterministic FCI curves are defined equating a stress, strain, oF ‘enorgy-based damage parameter DP with is essocated life Nj I lost) isessumed asa random variable, then is V-value at ench DP level can be used to obtain the conditional probability density fanetion (CPDF) of log () for any given applied DP, defined as Clog) | DP). Alternatively, the DP ot else logiDP) ean be assumed insted as he random variable, ‘resulting respectively in the CPDF definitions p(DP | X) ot plog(P) | 1) fora given FCI ie Ns Notice, however, that fatigue strength dispersions are not direey measurable, since the random outputs of FCE ess are fatigue ves, not determinstcally specified load inputs. Therefore, the CPDF parameters ‘of n DP of log(DP) distribution for a desired design life Ny must be Indirectly estimated, often through @ Maximum Likelihood Estimation (QMLE) method applied tothe considered data se. For relatively low reliable, say Rl < 0.95, I might be reasonable to assume log(N) Follows s normal (Le. Gaussian) CPDE, as Tong as dlflerentvatiances are allowed to be calibrated at each DP level. How. fever, when designing for higher reliabilities, @ usual practice, other probability distrbution families should be considered (3), such as ‘Weibull, Birsbaum-Saunders, oF log-togisties [A Moreover, runout specimens those which do not fall in FCL test cannot be propery described by logiN).dstibutions. They require Jnsteed random variables based on faigue limits, chrough appropiate choices of DP of lgiDF). The concomitant use of log) (0 desride finite specimens but DP ot lot DP) for runout erates compatibility fssues between ther distributions inthe transition fom the HCF tothe Very High Cycle Fatigue (VHCF) regime, which are often not enforced propery, as pointed out by Ferndez-Caneli et al. in (51. 'A desirable feature of probabilistic FCI models sto be applicable for ny fatigue tif, rom the LCF tothe VHCF domains. Kehout and Vechet {divided Fct into five regions, based on the number of eyeles needed {0 induce easily observable surface cracks and the typed lives assoc ated wit slope changes in stesslie or SN curves: () very low-eyele region, typically for Ny < 100 eyeles, before the slope change fom the CF towards the HCF regime: id low eele region, (peel for 100-< Ny < 107 eyees, where the slope change in SN curves is signifinnt i) edi eye or finite life region, typically for 10” < Ny < 10° eyes, co Which most stress-based models with constant slope ae calibrated or estimated; i) high eye region, for 10° 10 ecles, beyond such an SN slope teaiion. Notice that father slope chenges may aise considering the seneraton of typical “fisheye” VHF subsurface cracks, which should bbe modeled through a separate stress lfe curve (7), For simplicity, this work reduces these five SN regions to only three: LCE, HCF and VCE. Since subsurface cracks ay already be relevant forMA, Mega en TP. Care ‘Ny> 10” cytes 7} tis isthe erterion adopted ee o define the VHCF tevin, Considering tat the LG region i sociated with 1 < 1,00 cele, then the adopted HIF region becomes 10? < Ny < 10” eyes. Such resold ae material dependent and tne affected by ft eat Sion life en fvgue lini knee point location. However, these vales can reasonably desrbe the typi! behavior of mumy if not most snctlli alloys, ‘Acording to Femnder-Caneliet al. (5, Class 1 PCI models ae those that donot expicly consider fatigue lis or the LCF Behavior, tus med forthe HCE eplon- Models ha incl not ony the HC Bt ‘so the VHCE behavior. through Halbch’s SN slope change 8] ot trough fatigne Knit Fiting parameter, ace called Class nally, as I FCT models are the most comprehensive, describing altogether the LCF, HCF and VHCF domains Most probabilistic FCI modes fram the literature are Cla 1, x reviewed nnd compare inthe next section Moreover, as emphesizein(5}, most existing probes las Hand Chase IT models do not satisfy CPDF comparbity conditions and 0.95, as ‘often required in practice 1], because normal distributions are defined from —= 10 +20 ‘To avoid this issue, log-nomal distributions have been adopted, ‘obtained by assuming that either log(N) or log(DP) follows a normal ‘isrbution. This wen lower Ink equal to zero isset for Nyand for DP, ‘avoiding the possibilty of negative values. For instance, te relatively recent German FKM-Guideline (1) adopts Tog dorm distribution for the fatigue stengrh, Le. i assumes that log(DP) is normal, while tee- ‘ommiending the se of fag curves with a reliability RI ~ 97.59% for ‘design purposes. ‘The BS ISO 12107 (15) and ASTM E739 (2) standards onthe other hhand, assume that logi¥p, instead of log(DP, follows a normal dist: bution. They assume as well a constant experimental scatter along the ‘entire life domain, even though the variance of log(N) tends increase towards the fatigue init. Therefore, despite the improvements obtained from the log:nomal statistics, the use of these standards. for Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 probabilities offallure P < 59% or relinbilties RI > 959% certainly Is ‘questionable (2]. Other models chat assume logiy) normal (16-20) have tried to compensate for this limitation by c constant variance, as summarized in Table 1, whieh compares the probabilistic models from (2.3,11,14-87). Siar to log-normals, ewo- and three parameter Weibull distrib tious (W2P and W3P) are widely used to describe the CPDF of Ft data [s, along with their Limiting Gumbel distribution. Among them, the WGP disuibution is the most general [39], since it allows the calibration ‘of non-zero lier limits for N; snd for DP. This is a required feature to estimate very low probabilities of failure (P ~ 090) or very high re liabilities (RI + 1008), which ae so important for practical designs ‘As Seon in Table 1, several probabilistic FCI models assume log) follows W2P (21) oF W3P [22,25] instead of normal distributions. The WP and WAP distributions are so versie, succesfully fitting both linear and logerithmized date, that some FCI stochastic. models [3.24.25] even assume Ny instesd of log(N) as their random variable Probabilistic models that assume DP as the random variable have also been proposed based on Gumbel [26], W2P [27] and WSP (28,22) distributions ‘The probabilistic P-DP-N framework propose in this work assumes Instead that log(DP) isthe random variable, similarly to the FKM- Guideline (14), however following WSP instead of a normal distr bution. The fundamental properties ofthe Weibull and Gumbel iste butions, necessary forthe developmien ofthe propased approach, are reviewed next. 2.1, Weibull and Gumbel dirbutions ‘The WGP distribution ean deseribe various structural engineering problems related (othe dispersion of strengs, among may other ap plication (4). 1 particularly useful to model systems with several ‘dentcal components in series, whic fail when the ist of them fails It the strength of each component i @ random variable, the distribution of the system strength tends toa Weibul distribution when the number of components slrge, independent of the statistics of each one of them. ‘Weibull distributions ean sso handle the size effect in both fatigue and tensile strengths. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the WSP distribution is given by ny=t-onl (3) w able Pobabilistie models lassied by ther use of stess based (SN) or stain and every based (eN) damage parameters, consideration of wean sess effet (6), possibilty toast on-canstane variances") aswell ste ested anon iabe nd chosen CPDF (2,311 14-97. Tefen Gy Random Vole CPOE BSIS0 RIOTS) Tea) Tonmal asia 729 (2) x ‘ap Noma Peaaletal (16-19) ad Bebuske etal 20) A) leuko (21) x x tp Sra eral 228) ad eene & Fin 26) xy Prscale eker 5) % Stace (3) x x ® Shineyetal 1) be Pall eta (20) x » Sender 21 x be Tour Gazeta (28) ra Towecae etal (29) Xxx » Conloetsl (30-32) x lon) oa) anloeeal [ss] oem) La) ont al (37) x x apt) at) Fatale 4] tenor) Norma peibibest x on x x eat waeMA, Megan en TP. Care where exp.) is the exponential function, and > 0, 3 > 0 and 4 are respectively the WP shape, scale and location parameters. Notice that J Is the smallest possible value of the sttstical variable x, chus x > J From Eq, i follows that when the random variable valueisx =i-+ ‘itis alinys associated with an accumulated probability PQ.+ 5)= 1 1 & 0,682, where e = 2.71828, ad x(0.5) i the median ofthe PDF. ‘The inverse cumulative distbucion, also known as quantile of percentile function, describes the x value associated with & given ‘probability of face 0-< P< 1, resulting forthe WSP distution in @ HP) =2 451 ~~ P) where In.) is the logarithmic faction tothe base e, and (1 ~ P) i the previously defined reliability lovel A, ie. the probability of survival of the predictions made using this equation, ‘The W9P PDF can be obtained from the derivative of Eq (1) with respect rox, giving wo C9] ° ‘with mean ps mode xm and variance & given by His or(+t/p) @ m= a46(t 1/0)!" o #810 429-0] © where FX.) i the gama Funeton, The mode xi sified to the left of the mean if < 3.1, orto the right otherwise. The variance # does not ‘depend ond, since its insenslive to such n coordinate translation, but increases by increasing & and/or decreasing f. The two parameter ‘Weibull distribution W2P is a special case of WP when 4 ~ 0 in Eqs (4-5), withthe same varionce 2? fom Ea, (0). ‘The hazard function (x) is @ conditional failure rate, wehich ean describe the probability density of fale ata level x, given thatthe ‘component has alresdy survived until dh x level. This fnetin is very sel oi not data co FCI curves while properly considering theit stovistical distribution, as stied inthe following sections. It i cle lated from the ratio berween the PDF p(x) and the associated survival funetion 1 ~ PQ, whieh forthe WSP distrburion results in pia) ees atv § (A) y “The skewness Sof the WSP PDF, which isa measure of is asymmetry About its mean, s only a fmetion ofthe shape parameter f, given by PL 3/6) SF + 270). + 1/0) 4200+) Ta 427) Parl” where a positive skew ($ > 0) indicates thatthe more prominent til s ‘on the right side of the WAP PDF, as opposed to the left side for a negative skew (S < 0 From Eq, (8) it follows thatthe shape and skewness ofthe WSP PDF ‘are exclusively a function of . Ithas a vertical asymptote at x = 3 for vl where S > 2. Ir becomes the exponential distribution if Iehas postive skew with? >S>01fT << 60. t resembles the normal distribution if = $.60, where $ = 0. Ic has negative skew with —1.14 < S < Off > 3.60. Finally, It tends to the ‘Gumbel dstbution when f ~ oo, where § > 1.14. In fatigue appl: ‘ations, Weull’s shape parameter hasbeen associated with the quality ‘of both the element manufacturing process and of the material (211, with observed values > 1, which do not have a vertical asymptote, ‘As mentioned above, when becomes very large, typically p> 40, WP tends to the two-parameter Gumbel distibution, with CDF, a) = ® Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 percentile function, and PDE given respectively by ro 1-en[-eo(’54)] ® wy pba) an rotor f (2) ” where 2° is the Gumbel location parameter and 4° > 0 is its seale parameter, estinsted from the WP parameters for p> 40 by Txase, 8 sap a lean be shown thet Eqs. (9-11) exactly reproduce the limits of Eqs. (1-3) when 2, respectively, in whieh ease Eq. (12) holds exactly. ‘The mean, mode, variance, ad skewness from the Gumbel distribution «can be obtained fom Eqs. (4-6, 8) with po, resulting respectively in Wad $8,0° =8.04/0,%q Nand —1.14, where §~ 0.577'8 {he Euler Mascheroui constant. Is mode sy ~ 2 which i associated with an aecunnulated probability PC") =e" 0.368, and i is alivays shifted tothe right du co its significantly negative skewness. Besides being the limit ofthe W3P wien p - oo, Gumbel also de scribes the log(x) distribution of variable x that follows a W2P distr bution, need, the Weibull and Gumbel distribution families are very melt related, both being very good candidates for probabilistic FCI sodels tis important to mention that the above expressions are for the Mininism Gumbel distribution, which models the variability of the :inimum of a number of samples, sina to the WSP. te should not be confused with the Maxiniun Gunbel distribution, which models instead ‘the maximum of many’ samples, with & PDF given by Bq. (11) with the sign of (x ~ 29 switched to Gi”), eesuting in a symmetric positive skewness § © 1.14, Both are generalized extreme value distributions Type also referred 10 simply as extreme value distibutons This work always uses the Mininrum Gumbel formulation forthe Gumbel distribution, whieh is the most relevant for stctra eng neering problems related to strengths. It is used to replace WP dist butions when their date‘ftted shape parameter becomes too large, which could ead to large numerical errors since it isan exponent. The critarion to replace WP with it limiting Gumbel dstribtion is arbi tated here as > 40, associated with a skewness rige —1.14 40, any data ser passing & goodness. of i rest for WIP should also pas for Gumbel 22, The Castillo Cant agproach ‘Toe Call Cantelt (CC) approach [90-96] comprises a series of ses and stain ae probabil Fl mols, ling mers sod td tin FCI eto [371 whic mse the adopted randoms ‘arabes follow W3P or ese ts miting Gumbel dsbutons. The original sessed version ofthe CC: pron [0] sams Boh og (cand lng flow WP virions, whee the applied est slid. From this maunpion and the comparilty condition be twee the CPDFs plot) | NP and pogo) tan be demo see (40) thatthe prods oe) Ne) sould so fllow {WP distebuton, where ap and Ne would be minim threshold vats for asd Np respectively. Fence, from the inverse mapping betwen the oxo assed WAP dissibtons, percentile curves derived fon the CC approach must hare ‘ igperbolie shape ol sce al witha horizontal asymptote oy asad with he aig lint aswell saver asymptote N, To. Sich a horizontal asymptote provides an improved smooth desertion forthe fag lini enabling these hyperbolic eaves (0 describe the HCE-VHCF transition, wih the ned advantage of te vseMA, Megan en TP. Care ‘of the versille WP distribution. Moreover, this approsch may also ‘onsider runout effets to etter estimate fatigue limits [32]. Tis hor. leontal asymptote Is not an isse for materials without a cleat fatigue limi sueh as some alia (AD alloys, since the minivan ches ‘0 cou be se 10 ze (38). However, despite the several advantages of the CC mpproach, its Inherent vertical asymptote Ny = Np remains controversial [38]. A threshold No > 1 would imply in an infinite strain amplitude associated ‘with a finite life Ny— Np. Otherwise, would need tobe in the range 0 < [Ne < 1, wich i often the case wien the dataset includes LCF tests, ‘siggesting No is » mathematical instond of « piysical data fiting parameter, at least for the usual DP definitions. A vertical asymptote ‘ould also be incompatible with stres-baved FCI curves, since plastic effects usually cause the actual percentile curves to infect downwardsin the LCF region, especially fr Al alloys, see Fg. 1. This igure shows the ‘CC percentile curves for prestrained 2024-74 Al data from (41,421, calibrated by the computationally efficient rvo step approach proposed by Toasa Caiza and Ummenhofer [51], where fis dhe geometric 99 and ‘Noparaneters are determined followed by the WP parameters f, 3, and a ‘As soon inthe Figure, the inability ro raprodce the concave dvs ward shape ofthe steslife curve fromthe LCF to the HCE regions, sng a sil set of ealtration parnetersop ad No cased large ies inthe percentile curves. This paces the P5085 curve below mestof te CF region, aswell as above the ene LCF and VHCE regions, eile Inge overentinaring the seu experinental sate. Notice i Pi. 1 that ie stress amplitude og has Den replaced with the Smit Watson. ‘Topper (SWI) [43) sess parameter DP= yur 10 Account for mean srs effects, where dg the stress peak. “Therefor, despite the good performance calibrate within the HCP reglme, the concave upward hyperbole shape from this mode may not {epic propeny the sree life curvesin the LC region, where he plastic behavior sigfcan (28) a lens fr ust stress bse DP dein According (© [38] both sess approaches fom Castillo ea (90) ‘and rom ASTM 739 (2 ate not suitable for CL lives Ny < 10° eyes. AS ‘rest f not fered out from the model calibration, LCF data not following «concave upward hyperbolic shape could inode brs bt in the LCF ad in the VHGF regime, as observed for two sels by Swleki (23). Indeed, dhe CC mpproach i able Gt muuch beer the prestrain 2024-74 Al data i the HCFregine, os ong ms only spcinens with > 10 ar acide in the calibration, ee the hick curve plotted in i. However, such a HCF calibration cannot be extrapolated t the LOR Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 region, since i¢ would result in highly non-conservative preitions. ‘The ise with the Cc vertialasymprore has Deen circumvented by Feméndez-Canteliet al. (5), who proposed an enspirieal DP that tends ro infty inthe LCF regime, corrected by a strain gradient obtained fom the slope ofthe eyelie Ramberg-Osgood equation. Such a stess-based DP, named generalized reference variable (GRV), can extend the CC fpproach tothe LCF regime, making it a Clas Il model. Nevertheless, the associated shape of this singular DP was still not enough to completely eliminate the CC bias issue for the P3SSNL1 steel studied in [5]. as observed from the high concentration of LCF data points below the fitted P — 50% curve. Notice that different calibrations of the probabilistic model were required foreach stress rato, see thelr pro posed GRY doesnot model yet mean stres effect. ‘sally beter altemative to account forthe LCF regime in a FL model involves the use of srin or enengy-based damage parameters, 95 verified by Correia etal [37] within the CC approach, Such a possibilty had also been explored by Castillo etal in their seminal book (3), using similar hypotheses that both log(DE) and log(N) follow W3P distribu ‘ons for stain based definitions of DP. Analogously 10 the stes-ife ese the resulting strane (in fact DP-life) percentile curves repre sented in log-tog sels also became hyperbolas with horizontal and vertical asymptotes, which can be described by soe 2? ve(om) where D?p is minimum threshold value for DP, associated with the fatigue limi. Such probabilistic stsin based (as well as energy-based) models ‘usually provide a better ft to Ft data [36], because strain ie curves do ‘ot tend to infect downwards in the LCF region, see Fig. 2, a8 verified from dhe usual ¢ < D relation beoween the Cofia-Manson (CM) ductility and strength exponents. Moreover, in the presence of non-zero mean stresses, efficient strain and energy-based damage parameters can be adopted in the CC fpproach to miodel mean ses effets, ch as the SWT DP by Correia fetal. [24] or else its generalization by Apetre et al 5] using Walker's exponent [0] applied to the DP proposed by Dowling (4) Despite these improvements, the vertesl asymptote inherent co the (6C approach inthe LCF regime is not compatible e-, with the observed finite slopes from GM's plastic component asymptote in log-log seals, for else withthe slope b +e ifthe SWT damage parameter is adopted {stead This lope incompatibility may force Doth Np and DPo thresholds ‘o achieve physially meaningless values that are roo low, such as Np = as) ALBA Te renting) cent Se prone ARTA rnd) Geri a apron Ly one | Seas zi eds ee i vey | eam : | | a : i : \ 5 « soo a a he eee a ah et eae eos etd ig. 1. CC percentile cuves for prestalned 2024-4 AL, using the SWT sess pasemeter DP Yaa consider snean sues ees. 2. OC percentile curves fr puestsned 2024-4 Al using the SWT damage Pateneter DP = gay 10 consider mean ses effets.MA, Megan en TP. Care £8.92-10°™ eyeles and DPo = 1.11-10-4 Ma fr the Fi 2 dat iting, prevenring the possibility to calibrate an even tig Kini at DP level above such a negligible Dé. Hence, forthe usual DP definitions, snore data fitng pranites could be ried in the CC detersniste FCTesquation oft propedal dee LCF, ACF and VHCE regimes. Notice that, to account for aienn ses effect, Fig 2 bas adopted the SW daage parameter DP ei, where eqs the strain amplitude. Besides the possible bins issue due tothe fed hyperbolic shape of the CC percentile curves, they are unable to ely calibrate the usally ‘observed life-dependent seater either, often present even in log-log representations For instance, if the senter a log(DP) x wenlted rons 4. (18) for a given Ny asthe vertical dtance cin the log-log scale berween to percentile curves P= Pend P =P, ith P > P, it follows #{{-m0— py]! —[- tnt Py)!” } vs(Gra) teg(% 7%) Since the CG approneh adopts constant thceshold Npaue fixed WSP parameters and 6 then, for any constant user-defined pair of Ps, Py) Percentile curves, the vertical distanced beteen then only Yares with log(Wp, to which it is inversely proportional. As a result, the CC approneh always prediets a monoronicaly decreasing seater fr log DP) towards the VHCF regime, contrary o many experimental observations, atleast forthe usally adopted stress and strain-based definitions of DP. In summary, sts, strain, or energy: based probabilistic models that assume Doth Log(DP) aad log) follow W3P distributions are unable ro ‘acon for eventual inereases inthe seater ofboth log(DF) ad lot) from the LCF to the VECF regine. This suggests that log(N) might follow different distributions, such as the Bimbaum Saunders (or fa tigue) distribution [45]. Indeed, if from a weakest link assumption it is possible ro assume that ether the adopted DP or og(DP) follows a WSP_ x) = 1 ~PCx) ofthe random variable Deing higher than the runout value. kn other word, both tunouts and failures share the survivor functions 1 ~ P(x) in Eq. (22), but for failures they mist be mlipied by thee conditional file sates Cx), task accomplished through their dummy variables 7, ‘Theabsenee ofthe hazard funtion lx) for runoutsin Eq (22) Also able to properly aeeount for prematurely terminated tests, e.g unos ‘much below 10° eycles, which would not significantly bias the W3P fiting, since thee survivor fanetion would be very else to one. Mote ‘over, such premature aout should not affect at all the ealbration of the deterministic FCT curve, sinee they should ené up filtered out in the iterative iting proceiare proposed in Secvion 3.1- Assuming. follows a ‘w9P distribution, and using Eqs. (1) and (7) for its CDF and hazard faecou, den its optimal 5, and 4 parameters can be ealelated front the maxinieation of the WSP version ofthe Tobit likelihood funetion a (8 fae oa iif Cs } {«»[- @) }} were the vals ae calculated fom the DP dN ofthe m data points wed in he iting proces. Notice thatthe hazard function wally tsimes Nor log() asthe random vziabe in Ft applications, howe ‘ver nth work is been adapted to esrb the log) CPOE “The og kelnond ti), defined asthe natal login of, (22), is also maxinized by the sme optinal ealiration, since ING) is @ ‘monotonic feton. Hence, the log kelibood recommended the ‘objetve function fa the maxiniendon process, sine it redices the enmptaconal burden by transforming the Eq (22) product into 4 Satin. Therefore, fom Ha. 23), the WP dsraton partes B, 8, and A can be calibrated by maximizing the log-likelihood we) Sofeanw nse vinar-(34)') en stbjeet to the constrains > 1, to avoid the vertical asymptote PDF associated with p< 1 and withthe exponential PDF for =I, as well as o>0. “Another important constraint inthe Eq. (24) maximization process is 2.< ming, where min(x) returns the minimum; va aken only fom the specimen flues, not from rinouts. As a result, in the MILE procese ‘of calibrating all rout data points with 34 < 2 trom the current & ‘estimate should be completely removed fom the Eq. (24) summation, since chey would contribute with a zero probability of failure inthe WSP daistbtion. On the other hand, ifthe data set does not snchide any ‘aout, chen simply set z= 1 in Eq, (24) forall data pots In the presence ofa large suber of nots, it might be desirable ro recalibrate the deterinistic FC curve using information fom the fitted ‘WSP distribution. Instead of the proposed iterative removal of the Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 ‘unouts below the curve from Section $1, thelr lives could be corrected to longer equivalent values according to the WSP distribution, to obtain a Tess biased estinate of the fatigue limit mean. Simple methods co perform regression analysis with such life corrections for runout have been propose by Seimee and Halt (60) and by Chaterieeand McLeish [61], assuming a normal distribution. These proceduses could be adapted to the WP forumlation; however, they would require an iter ative process of recalibrating the FCI curve using the WSP distribution to better acconint forthe runouts, and hen recalbrating the WOP dist bution using Eq, (24) with the new FCI curve parameters, and so 0, It is important to note that highly conservative outliers make 3 become highly negative, due tothe constrain < minGx), which drives both p and 6 towards infinity. This in turn drives negatively the WSP skewness, towards the Gumbel vale S~ 1.14. Three approaches can be followed in the presence of highly conservative outliers: (Fler ‘hem out from both the deterministic equation and probabilistic model fittings which shoul lower othe levels < 40 accepted in this work, however possibly inttoducing some non-conservative bias in che cal bration if ches outers were legitimate and not due co measurement error or noise. Gi) Find a better DP definition that could collapse the ‘outliers after its calibration, snee these outliers mht be result. of 18 poor modeling of mean stress effects. i) Or ese leave the outliers in the calibration while switching tothe Gumbel distribution with its and 2 parameters obtsned from the Eq, (12) conversions, to avoid having to deal with the WP shape and scale parameters and 6 tending to infty nly, the desired WP percentile fmetion isabtane from a. (2), resulting fr the heteroscedastic case from the Bq. (20) definition in og(DP) = oe) + Broa A + Ia Py} os) For the homoscedastccvse fom the Eq (21) definitlon, the WP perce futon becomes instead Jog(OM) = tog) ]+4-+4{—Inc — 2) If che Gumbel distribution bias been chosen instead of WSP, due to the adopted criterion > 40 (caused eg. by highly conservative outliers that have not been filtered out), thea the percentile funetions for the heteroscedastc and homoscedastc cases become, respectively: tog( OP) = Wop) 1+ YR reo UL +8 ~~ on og(DP) = tl f(W) ] 44+ An — InP) es) where 4° and 2° ae obtained fron Eq, (22). 4. Application to the Walker equivalent strain model Im this section, the proposed probebilistc P-DP-N framework is applied to an upgrade of the Walker Equivalent Strain (WES) deter ninistie FCI model, introduced by the authors init original form in (10). The proposed upgrade promotes itr a Class I model, by incor rating the Fatigue init; into the WES equation, dhongh aint value Des = SE of the equivalent stnin amplitude eaaq that defines its damage araueter DP tay ing (= + Fad Haris) bp (=) Zam)" +dramy Evi) (29) wich for 030 (hee ooMA, Megan en TP. Care where ead 6, te the normal strain an sress amples, Sins AN Gn are the stess peak and mean, isthe modulus of elasticity, ead ‘care iting parameters (which may be different from CM calibration), ‘and yal yee the values ofthe WES exponent y unde Censile and ‘compressive mean sitesss, respectively In itsoriginal version, neglecting Sin the equation, the deterministic WES model was already able oft quite wel strife data for al stress ‘atos R-< 1 and fr all $4 metallic alloy datasets studied in [10]. Her, ‘withthe inclusion of a fatigue linitS, asa new fitting parameter, the resulting Class IIL WES model provides even better fitings than the ‘original WES proposal for ll metas studied in this work, expecially i the HCP and VHF tegimes, a verified in Section 5. Using the identity 25 ~ du R)/2, i follows that the WES amplitude ego, is equivalent to the Walker-ike damage parameter 6 [2/(1— R)IP? adopted by Apetre et al. [95] in dheit probabilistic ‘aporonel, ifthe dual WES exponent y=, iF >Oory =. ify < 018 replaced with the singleexponent calibrated from Dowling’ strai-life model (44). ‘The WES mode! reproduces Cffin-Manson's equation for 5 —7— land S, —0, in which case o5, ep and c may be calibrated from CM's ‘ata fitting parmmetersobnined fron iniexial strain life data under (0, Le. R= —T. Note that the Intoducton ofS, > 0 io the nde tends to significantly inerease oy and decrease b with respect to CM's calibration, that is, the elastic strain line has a higher lmercept and a ‘steeper slope, Moreover, the WES model can flso reprodice an alter native version of the SWT equation discussed in [20], ify, = 7 = 0.5 While assuming 5; = 0. Suel a large number of data-ftting parameters is necessary for a ‘Class I FCL model that considers mean stress eects, while all of thea ‘have proper physical interpretations and justifications. The two pats (e)and (o's 8 arerequired to consider the diffrent plastic and elastic ‘damge beheviors, respectively. The iting parameter 5, is needed to ‘acct for fatigue lint the VHC regime. Filly, the need fortwo ‘separate Walker exponents, and 7_ has been experimentally verified in (10), Justified by the very different behaviors during the early growth of initiating fatigue cracks under tensile nnd compressive mean stresses, respectively. Such diferent behaviots could be explained using residual stressor crack closure concepts, or even increased crack fretlon under ‘compressive conditions inthe presence of some Mode I shear compo: neat. However, chere i stil na proof of which of sich mechanisms isthe dominant one in FCI problems ‘Asites-based version of te WES Eq. (29) can be obtained by setting 1&5 Oand nssuming linen elastic conditions with og — Ee, resulting i DP = (ena) =4-(2N))* +84 =1(8) op Equation (81) is not suitable to it LCF dat, since it cannot account for te slope changes in stressife curves often observed in shor lives under significant plasticity. Ths, ths stress based version is Class I FCI model, since Iti only able 10 ft aceurately the HCF and VHF re simes its meant for ‘Therefore, the stess-based version ofthe WES model shouldbe used ‘only for FCT lives beyond the slope transition from the LCF to the HCF tegime, which is often observed in oth stres and stain life pos. A rough estimate forthe life ro be adopted in such a lering procedure «auld be proposed from Fig. 3, which shows strainlife curves under R 1 for 754 metallic alloys studied by the authors in (62].The minim lner-material scatter for these curves is located near Nj 4,000eyeles, Deyoud which ic might be reasonable to assume, in average, chat the slope transition has ended. Hence, a general rule to improve the eal bration quality of the stress based Fg. (31) could bet filter out LCF data with Ny < 44000 cycles. Note however that the individual optiial filtering threshold for each ofthe studied 754 metalic alloys depends on the location oftheir transition lf, in most cases varying between 10? and 10" eyles. Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 £ - owe ae ‘hae ce Fig 2. Stine curves under R == for 754 metalic alloys Filly, notice that despite being a Glas I model the WES equation {s only intended to predict the initiation of surface eracks, In the VCE regime, subsurface fatigue eracks may initiate from internal defects, leading to a different damage melanism with a“fish-eye" patter (63) Tho prediction of sich suibsifce crack initiation reqs a separate FCI rodel with at least two data fitting parameters, for its slope and intr cept, ad possibly more to calibrate its own lower fatigue lit, as well as miean stres effets. Nicholas (7) states that there is no general rele tionship beteeen the surface and sibsirface FCI curves, indicating they could be assumed as independent events with seperate probabilistic models. Ths, i enough subsurface initiation datapoints are available, it should be posible oft a separate deterministic FI equation similar co Eq, (31), a8 Well a8 a separate associated WSP distibution, to obtain subsurface percentile curves that should not affet the perentile eal bration procedure for surface cracks described below. In the followin sections, the calibration detail for both sires sn strains Versions ofthe proposed P-WWES-N model are presented, 4.1. Gallbraion ofthe deterministic WES equation ‘optimal strain ie fiting procedures should always calibrate sepa rately the elastic and plastic parts of eX equations, 0 enforce the physical sense ofthe date fitting parameters, which could be compro ised in overall iting procedures. Therefore, the proposed calibration procedure for the deterministic WES model involves two steps it the Stres-basedl Eq (91) (0 stress life data to find the os, Sts td 7- parameters; and then (i) calibrate che remaining cand ¢ parameters from the srain-based Eq, (29) to fit the plastic strain dat, These steps are described as follows 4.141. Calibration of te high-ycle dat fing parameters ‘The calibration ofthe stress based WES mode! requires non linen regression approach, sine it cannot be linearized by applying Togs rithmic transformation, due cits fatigue limit parameter Sp, The Ap: pendix shows a calibration evde example in the Maga environment [or], making use ofthe fnincon.) solve, which finds the minimum of « non-linear multivariate fanetion subject co inequality constrains, Alternatively, if generie eurve iting software are not available, then iterative version of the Levenborg Marquardt (LM) algorithm (36,57) can be used instead to perform the required non-linear regression in the logarithmic scele [Applying the natural logarithm to oth sides of Ea (2D, tts possible to obtain after some algebra manipulation fe) =f + an) +s] ~~) noma) @MA, Megan en TP. Care where N;— Nar the measured lives ofthe specimens tested winder O45 Bd Gc ~ Se sed for this fitting, andy is either yo 7 ‘depending onthe sgn ofthe mean stress cy, as defined in Eq. (20) ‘Transforming the model parameters using a; =In(e'),.)=b, ay (0,ay=1— 74, and as=1 — y-, the residual exor of Ea, (32) ean be expressed as 2 = Info) —Infeplay +a: In2N) + expla) ] +4, ods} /%) 6) Foreach experimental point the gradient, of the right hand se of Eq, (52) with respect roa; through as becomes (Ni an * ares, eeu" 9-0) si FON bb] oo +S: where Je =—In(omni/oa) an Js = 0 if 694 > 0 0 consider it in the 7, calibration, oferwise make instead jg = 0 and Js =~In(emi/6a) (0 contribute tothe y_ calibration associated with oye < 0, The unknown, ‘fb and; values require in Eq, (34) are obtained at eaeh ealeation sep from their eurrent estimates = exp(a)), b= aa, and sy, = expta). ‘At each calculation step, the calibration proces iteratively npdates the vector a = fay aga ds” with anew improved estimate a + 8a, ‘where the superscript T represents the transpose operation. Ifthe gra ents Jf the m experimental data points are stacked ina so-called test ‘or design matrix. of aincusion m x 5, aud their residuals ae stcked. inana J error vector, then the correction vector Aa at enc iteration step can be esleulated from ao By Neigg II)) IR os) ‘where the function diag.) returns @ diagonal matrix with the dag ‘onal elements of JJ, nd A is scalar damping parameter useful to _Buarantee convergence (65) “Tospeed up convergence, recommended inital gues for metals for this iterative process ean be a = {0n(,000) 0.1 In{100) 0.5 0.57, ‘whiel assumes dhe usual Walker parameters near SWT's 0.5 value, in ‘addition to order-of magnitude iniil estimates 6, = 1,000, b = —0.1 ‘and 5; = 1004Po. This choice, coupled with a daniping paramerer A (0.01 and the fltering of data with N; 1,000 eycles, was abe costo ‘matically fi the stress based WES model to all 32 material data sets sdied in this work, without convergence issues. Higher values of A. texto “dampen” the LM algorithm, nupeoving ts stability a the ost of more iterations to converge. After finding the carecton vector A and nding i to the current ‘estimate a at each iteration step, the LM algorithm continues until the ‘norm of Aa becomes smaller than a given tolerance, for instance when {Aa} < 10~|ol. Once allay through ag are obtained, the optimal pa rameters fom Walker's strane equation ean be ealeulated from: = expla), b= Si ewe). 7 For datasets with too mich setter oF not including VHICF regime ‘data, i posible to obtain; tending to zero in the above fing pro ‘es, which could be Magged eg by as =n) becoming negative inthe Iterative proces. In his ease, the stress based WES equation parameters should be recalibrate setting S, = 0 while removing the third column feoa Eq. (94) nnd the tied row from the vector 2, which store respoe tively the gradient with respect ro Sand its transformed parameter ay = Ing). Then, the other four fting parameters are re-calibrated wsing & single iteration of the LM method, since for this §, — 0 setting the gradient J becomes independent of the fitting parameters, given by well on IF the data set includes rmnouts, then the procedure proposed in Section 31 could be adopted, where only runouts above the determi Iste PCT equation should be considered in its ealibration, requiring an a, andy =1-a5 6) Ian) ie Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 ‘iterative iting proces to Identify them. This empirical procedure tends {o provide better estimates forthe Sz paranieter than ignoring altogether all sunout data in the deterministic model iting is important note tac te fetigue init under variable amplitude loading (VAL) eonditions ean be much loser than its apparent vale estimated from constant amplitude experiments. In other words, low amplitude cycles below the apparent fatigue limit may cause fatigue damage under VAL, which must not be filtered out in life assessments. Cleary, ifexperimentel data under VAL is avallabe to better estimate the fatigue limit under stich conditions, then they could be incorporated into the iting process ofthe WES life equation, Alternatively, it wow be possible enforce the WES miodelparamteter Sto be equal 12er0 In the presented calibration procedie, through Eq, (07), and then truncate Eq (29) ata limit vali DP; ofits damage parameter calculated from an estimate of the actus! fatigue limi under VAL conditions. For this pur ose, rout cate obtained under eonstant amplitde loading should not be used inthe WES model calibration, since their incompatibility with the VAL eave would attiiilly increase the seater accounted for by the resulting P-WES.N percentile curves, For dat sets without compressive mean stress daa, the last cola from Eq, (34) or (87), as well asthe last ow from the veetor a, should be removed, to avoid singularities while trying to calibrate the parameter fas = 1 ~ y-. Conversely, in the absence of tensile mean stress data, the penultimate elements should be removed instead of the last. Such re ‘ovals are also required ifelthery, ory ends up outside the range 0 < Yo7- 40, Inching the mode location xq = 2, 88 verified in Fig. 9 for 2°= 0.466. ‘The resulting standard deviations of these WSP and Gubel distribu tions are also compatible, respectively 1.013 and 8-a/V6 = 1.022 Notice inthe figure thatthe W3P nienn j= 0.01791 very close to ero, aswell as Gumbel’s even beter = 7 ~0.577-8 & 0.0068, indicating # good precision inthe calibration of the deterministic tes based WES: Iie Eg (90. Fig, 10 shows the resulting sress-based PAWES.N percentile cueves for the 6061-T6 Al alloy data set, plowed using the Gumbel hetero scedastc Eq, (27) fr P ranging from 0.196 099.9%. Notice in the figure cant heteroscedasticity due to the increase in the seattr of both logiDP) and log(N) towards the VHCF regime, which has been 22 oA 0 on Random Variable, x 02 45 4-05 0 ‘Random Variable, x 05 1 15 Fig, 7. Fed WAP disubution forthe 707S-T6S1 Al ally using the sa asec WES DP, 9, Fited WaP and Gunbel dsubutons or the 6061-T6 AL ally using the sts based WES DPMA, Megan en TP. Care ALGOE-T6 - PLWESIN (svess-based) ‘Waker Eauiatent Sess Amptude (Pa we Observed Lio eyes) Fig. 10, Percentile curves fo the 6061-T Al alloy from the sresebrsed P WES mode propery calibrated in the percentile curves with the aid ofthe scedastic funtion coefReients sf = ~712:20-* and $= 376:20°° previously ob tained in Section 4.2. Notice ns well the significant shift ofthe P= 0.196 ‘enrve, as expected ftom Gumbel's negative skew $= —.14 As mentioned before, the MLE method is able toll deterministic ‘and probabilistic model parameters at once For the PAVES-N model, this could be accomplished by inserting the DP Eqs. (29-31) ito the ‘random variable Eqs, (20-21), which in am shouldbe inserted ino the log-likelihood fa. (2) tha needs to be maximized, However, i is not ‘easy to guarantee the convergence of such @ non-linear optimization problem, especially considering the several constraint that must be satisfied inthe PAWESN model, namely o> 0,0 < 0,8 > 0,0< rosy <1,€)>0,€ <0, mini + s}logtND1 > 09> 1, 8> 0, and 2 < mint As a rest, the proposed thre sep callration procedure is recom mended instead, to guarantee numerical stability, following the same reasoning adopted by Tossa Cza and Unienhofer (31) for their nwo step calibration of the CC probabilistic move. Such three step version has been able to fic automaticaly all 31 data sets studied inthis work, considering runout data and without having to remove outers 0 st bilize the MLE method, while allowing the calibration of hetero seedastcty throu its eeond sep. The propose caliration procedure is summarized inthe Appendix, which shows a working computational ‘code that canbe applied to both strain and stressed versions ofthe P WES. model, The next section evaluates the resulting automatic calibrations. 5. Evaluation of the P-WES-N model ‘This section validates the proposed P.WES.N model using 31 metallic alloy datasets from the Iterature cht include non-2er0 mean stress dat as well as contain more than twenty data points exch, to achieve a ‘nnn of statisti relevance Firstly, ninetoen datasets with both strain and stress measurements are used to evaluate the stran-based version of the PWWES.N mode, Whicls log(DP) seems to be homoscedastic enough not to require m sce astic funtion, as verified from their squared residuals pots. Then, the remaining twelve data sets, most of which do not have reported rons stains, te used to evaluate the stress-besed P-WES'N model For such a stres based representation of log(DP), significant hetero sceasteity usually remains inthe squared residuals plots, ited by the ‘adopted life dependent scedastc function from Ea. (19). ‘The quality of the deterministic fitings is then evaluated through thelr coefficients of determination F, comparing the stain and stress Inert uf ag 167 (2022) 307915 based versions of the WES and SWT DP definitions, as well as tele possible implementations within the CG approwch. Finally, the quality of| the probabilistic data fitngs is evaluated through goodness. of ft tests forall above models 5.1, Evaluation ofthe srain-based P-WES.N' model ‘Table 2 shows the data fiting parameters calculated for nineteen datasets containing strain measurements, using the strain based version ofthe P-WES-N model. The table also shows theultimate tensile strength Sy and modulus of elasticity E from each material. Other monotonic and cyeie propertios for these materials are summarized in (10). The table also shows the number m of points (including runout) from each date set, as well asthe coefficient of determination r from the deterministic [WES life calibration, calculated fom Eq. (17). Figs. 11-21 show the associated percentile curves for some ofthese nineteen materials tis importent to mention th the calibested values of oy and b Usted Jnthistable can be very different from thelr iting fom [10], duet the fnteodction ofS into the WES model. The plastic parameters e' and ¢ fave affected by Sas well but kaa much lesser degree large diferences from (10) ae present though whea the LCF data is mieh settered, asin ‘he three CC 450 8S daca sets fom [70], [Notice that te S, =O fittings shown fn Table 2 for somealloys do not necessarily mean they do not have a fatige lint. Sch; — estimates fare extrapolations from the available IC data, which might require the fddtion of further experiments in che VHCF regime, as well as the consideration of runout specimens, to estimate properly the aca Sif itexits fr the cousldered material. Moreover, as previously disused In Section 4.1.1, ithe P-WES-N n histories, then experiments under sich conditions woul be desirable co Deter estimates, which could be significantly lower dan the apparent fatigue limic obtained under constant amplitude loading. Alternatively, the deterministic WES model calibration could be performed while enforcing its; parameter o be equal to zero, as detailed in that secon, ‘and then the actual fatigue init under service conditions could be sed ‘o truncate the resulting WES lf equation ‘As seen in Table 2 typical stra based WAP shape parameter values fare inthe range 1.9 << 6.1, which describe sixteen out ofthe nineteen FCT data sets. The exceptions ar the CC. 450 88 Soln Ann, CC 450 S$ 1H900, and prestraned T-6ALAV das sets, which have very high B = £888, 868, and 989, respectively. This is due to the presence of conser vative ouliers that drive negatively the WSP PDF skewness. If these outliers had been removed, then their WP shape parameters show Ihave dropped tothe usual range desribed above, For these cnses with > 40, the W3P dsrbution has been replaced by Gumbel, whe fs very well these three data sets with its $= —1.14, using the 6° and 2° pa rameters shown in Table 2, calculated from Eq. (12)- ‘On the odher hand, the lowest f= 1.997 in the table, for the pre SMrnined GSMaNi 6 3 steel data set, i cansed by the single a conservative outlier closest tothe P= 99.9% curve, see Pig. 16, which drive the skeveness toa positive value =0.674. Asa general rule, ifnot removed, non-conservative ouliers cause a positive skew resulting in 8 < 3.60, while conservative outlier, onthe other hand lead toa negative skew with > 8.60. Notice thatthe > 1 results forall nineteen data sets fron Table 2 are nota surprise, slice 0 < <1 values would be asso ciated with & monotonie PDF with vertical asymptoce resembling the exponential distbution, not characteristic of FI problens. ig. 12 shows that the inherent hyperbolic shape from the Cc approzch s not a good ifr the 17 MuxCeMo 33 see, see the CC version of the P = 0.1% and 99.9% percentile curves. Indeed, the (wo iting parameters DPy and Np from the CC approach deterministic equation, pls its thre associated WSP parameters, were not enough to properly fit altogether the LCF, HCF and VHCF domains for this ste, even with the inclusion ofthe Walker exponent fom the WES DP. For this dataset, ‘even the nioits hil been considered in the Fsng as files, wowed not be possible to raise the CC P= 0.1% curve enongh to approach the