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CFA Institute Research Challenge

Hosted by CFA Society Sydney


Local Challenge – Sydney
University of Sydney

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board member of the subject company. Market making
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to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any
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information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any person or
entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation
of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be a recommendation by any
individual affiliated with CFA Society Sydney, CFA Institute, or the CFA Institute Research
Challenge about this company's stock.
Jamjoom Pharma

Investment Thesis
Jamjoom pharma is one of the top pharmaceutical companies in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia to benefit from the growing healthcare care not
just only operating in Saudi Arabia but also in middle east and North Africa, with a large portfolio of 118 brands across 8 therapeutic segments.
1. strong leadership position was created by a potent sales team .
2. Outstanding R&D team that reflects the healthy product pipeline.
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare JAMJOOMP AB:
Saudi Arabia (January 26, 2024) 3. art of timing in expansion
4. being ready for signing the public tender contracts.

Figure 3: JP’s largest TA to drive significant growth


5. discipline and commitment in paying the dividends and capital allocation.
Business Model:
55 In the realm of pharmaceuticals, the
5%

39 39
43 14% company is dedicated to the comprehensive
4% 13%
4% 4%
10% 12%
12% cycle of development, manufacturing, and
11% 14%
11% 11%
12%
12% strategic marketing of a diverse spectrum of
13%
60% 53%
64% 61% high-quality branded generic pharmaceutical

2019 2020 2021 2026


products. The market outreach extends
General Medicine GIT Dermatology Consumer
Health Ophthalmology across 36 countries in the Middle East,
Africa, and the Commonwealth of
Independent States, with Saudi Arabia,
Figure 4 Commercial team headcount by Egypt, Iraq, and the GCC countries serving
country
as primary arenas of significant operations
and sales.
Core operations:
the company specializes in producing
pharmaceutical products encompassing
therapeutic categories such as
Ophthalmology, Dermatology, General
Medicine, Gastrointestinal (GIT),
Cardiovascular (CVS), Central Nervous
System (CNS), Over the Counter (OTC), and
Nutraceuticals/Consumer Health. Operating
with a broad product range, stringent quality
controls are maintained to garner and sustain
the trust of valued customers (see Appendix
G1).
strategic vision:
Figure 5: innovation stages
A pivotal component of the strategic vision
revolves around contributing to national and
regional self-sufficiency. This commitment
takes tangible form through the optimization
of new product launches, exemplified by the
ongoing development of a suite of high-
quality diabetes management products slated
for market introduction between 2022G and
2024 G.
Operational capabilities are fortified by a
state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Jeddah, accompanied by a new sterile facility in Jeddah
Revenue by category – FY21 0

31%
Jamjoom Pharma

scheduled to open in the latter half of 2023G. Expanding the geographic footprint, a manufacturing
facility in Egypt has been established, also scheduled to commence operations during the second
half of 2023G.
At the heart of innovation lies a robust R&D department, boasting over 91 professionals with the
capacity to develop 12 to 15 products annually (see Appendix B1). These new additions
complement existing therapeutic categories, introducing essential products such as anti-diabetic
medications to address crucial needs in the markets served.
Revenue generation hinges on the strategic sale of pharmaceutical products to
distributors, who play a crucial role in distributing products downstream to hospitals,
pharmacies, doctors, and various healthcare providers.
In categorizing multifaceted operations, a distinction is made between “technical”
operations, focusing on product development and manufacturing, and “commercial”
operations, centering on the strategic marketing, sales, and distribution of finished
products. This comprehensive business model encapsulates a commitment to innovation,
quality assurance, and a robust market presence.

Figure 6 JP’s largest TA to drive significant growth Figure 7 Revenue by category – FY21

55 31%
5%
43 14%
39 39 4% 19%
4% 4% 13%
10% 12%
12%
16% 17% 17%
11% 11% 14%
11%
12% 12%
13%

60% 53%
64% 61%

2019 2020 2021 2026 Ophthalmology Dermatology General Other Consumer Health
Medicine

Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital

US$2.221bn 43.65% US$69.75mn


Market Cap Free Float Avg. Daily Volume

Target price 94.26 1.71 Jamjoom Pharma


Sell
Existing rating
Performance (Rebased to Jamjoom Pharma is in a good position to gain from the expanding healthcare industry
100) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other MEA nations. With a broad portfolio of
118 brands spanning 8 therapeutic segments and leadership positions in
ophthalmology (#1 player) and dermatology (#2 player), it presently operates in about
36 countries. Its margin profile is the best in its class and superior to that of the more
experienced generic players found worldwide. Over the next five years, the stock has
potential for 24% FCF growth and 15% bottom-line growth. With no debt, the
business has plenty of space to expand through acquisitions, raise its payout ratio, and
raise ROE levels. The strong margins and return ratios indicate
the quality of the management as well as the moats of the business. The
company’s high capex (2019-2022) phase is behind us, thus going forward it
Earnings will witness a period of high cash flow generation. These parameters meet all
(SAR mn) 2022 2023E 2024E the criteria of a company that has attributes of both quality and growth, which
Revenue 917 1,074 1,235 0
YoY % 24.6% 17.1% 15.0%
Gross Profit 594 695 800
Jamjoom Pharma

w ship top spot in the GIT segment and leads the categories for vitamin D3, Optha and
e position Derma in Iraq, and Vitamin D3.
in niche
h TAs: JP
a concentrat
v es on
e specialize
d
n treatment
o fields like
ti Consumer
c Health,
e
Derma,
d
and
Optha. In
o
the KSA,
n
it has a
l
high
y
ranking in
i
the fields
n
of
a consumer
health,
f dermatolo
e gy, and
w ophthalm
ology.
o These
t regions
h account
e for more
r than 50%
s of its
t sales, and
o it has a
c top-three
k market
s share
i there.
n With the
aid of
t technolog
h y and a
e
capable
sales
K
force, JP
S
has
A
increased
.
its market
L share
e significant
a ly.
d Notably,
e it now
r holds the

0
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Strong R&D team and healthy product pipeline: JP invests significantly more in R&D than
its competitors do; over the past three years, it has averaged 4.3% of sales in this area. The company
boasts one of the biggest R&D teams in the

area, capable of handling everything from bio equivalency studies to patent filing and literature
reviews. It has a 94% success rate in studies pertaining to bio equivalency. Its robust pipeline of
products reflects this. Seventy-two products were pending approval at different stages as of June
2022. Sixty-four percent of this pipeline has been de-risked.

New capacities are state-of-the-art facilities: JP will increase its capacity by nearly 70% with
the opening of its two new facilities in Jeddah (25 million units per year) and Egypt (52 million units
per year). Commercial batches of a few products are now being produced by JP at its manufacturing
facility in Egypt, and exhibit/test batches are being produced at its Jeddah Sterile facility. It is
anticipated that commercial production will start in H2 2023. JP is unique among its peers because of
its advanced technological manufacturing capabilities. It is a leader in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
in several areas, such as unit dosage ophthalmic product production

Company Overview
Figure 1: worldwide pharmaceutical sector
Jamjoom Pharma, originating as a branch of Abdullatif Mohammed Salah Jamjoom and Brothers
Company in Jeddah, KSA, since its inception on September 22, 1994, stands out as a significant
contender in the pharmaceutical sector. With a core emphasis on the development, production, and global
distribution of a diverse range of generic pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and consumer healthcare products,
the company has cultivated a robust presence across more than 36 countries, encompassing the GCC,
Levant, North Africa, and other regions. Dedicated to furnishing high-quality products, Jamjoom
Pharma’s expansive product portfolio and extensive distribution network position it as a leading figure in
the industry, ensuring that customers worldwide have access to a broad spectrum of top-quality
pharmaceuticals and healthcare solutions.

Source: Company data, Al Rajhi Capital Note: 1. According to IQVIA 2019-2021 ranking,
calculated as total export revenue in the main Jamjoom Pharma markets for each company on the
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

aggregate basis over 2019-2021; 2. #1 player in all therapeutic sub-categories where Jamjoom
Pharma operates in KSA, according to YTD May 2022 IQVIA ranking

Appendix G2: Board of Directors

Appendix G3:
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Industry and competitive landscape:


The overall pharmaceutical sector was valued at SAR30.5 billion (or US$8.1 billion) in 2021G,
having grown at a CAGR of 6.3% since 2019G (see Appendix B2). Pharmaceutical product
growth over the review period is attributed to positive macroeconomic drivers such as population
expansion, an ageing population, rising levels of noncommunicable diseases and strong
Government funding to expand public healthcare. Value sales of several pharmaceutical products
in the Kingdom benefitted from rising consumer awareness of maintaining a healthy and
responsive immune system as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak. The Kingdom is heavily reliant
on pharmaceutical imports, with a majority of its products still coming in from the US, Europe,
China and India. One of the core objectives of Vision 2030 is a Government push towards
pharmaceutical security, which aims to increase local production to account for at least 40% of
total pharmaceutical product consumption.

The key pharmaceutical categories that the company are working on are Ophthalmology,
Dermatology, general medicines, Gastrointestinal Products, Nutraceuticals. in ophthalmology
Jamjoom pharma has a 20.6% market share in this industry and they ranked 1 in that industry. In
dermatology Jamjoom ranked second after Avalon Pharma Pvt Ltd with 6.7% market share with
an impressive growth space (see Appendix B3). Also in the general medicine industry their
market share is 2.1% and they are so far in that industry which make it hard to compete in it. in
Gastrointestinal Products the company came fourth with 5.5% on market share and they came
after AstraZeneca and other companies that focuses in that industry. Least but not lastly
Nutraceuticals industry. Jamjoom came third with 5% on market share and they came behind
bayer ag and Vitabiotics Ltd . And we can conclude that jamjoom focuses on one main industry
which is ophthalmology and they didn’t drop the other industries but they maintained focusing on
one sector which might affect them in the long run if the industry been crashed.

Figure 10 Product pipeline (mention number of products)

Others; 1
Optha; 12
Anti Diabetes; 17

General
Medicine; 7

CNS; 1
Dermatology; 2

CVD; 12

Consumer
Health; 15
GIT; 5

Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital


Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Figure 11 R&D Team


Other R&D
8%

PhD 12%
Master’s Degree
80%

91
Empl

Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital

Political exposure:

Figure 12 Current and Upcoming

Facilities (units in millions)


The company has a huge political exposure. The company exports their product to countries that faces
a huge political risks. Iraq, north Africa and Algeria is the main exposure they have. And slightly
lower exposure in Egypt and turkey. 9.2% of the total company sales in 2022 were in Iraq. That
portion of sales is in huge exposure and might vanish in any time. On the other hand Iraq is expected
to grow the fastest at a CAGR of 5.9% to reach SAR9.2 billion (or US$2.5 billion) driven by the
Government’s push to increase investments and accessibility. And that gives a huge potential to grow
their net income. North Africa also have these political issues but they have a huge gap in the industry
so it worth the risks that they are taking.

Economic exposure:

Figure 13 Current and Upcoming

Facilities (units in million)

The main economic issue in the countries that they sell in is the inflation. Inflation can affect that
currency and also can affect the currency exchange to SAR. Turkey inflation rate in 2022 was 72.3%
Current and Upcoming Facilities (units in million) and the currency dropped almost 30% to USD and that makes it hard to move the money with that
200 2
180 5 amount of loss. Egypt also had the same currency issue when they depleted their reserves instead of
160 5
140
120
2 counting on the USD. And the money supply last two years were very high that also affected the
100
80 currency and makes it difficult to move the money to other currencies.
60
40
20
0
113
113 Environmental, Social, Governance
The Company plans to continue to build on introducing operational efficiencies to meet the CMA

Jeddah Main Facility Egypt Main Facility Jeddah Sterile


regulations and the global standers to the environment, implementation of efficient governance
facility
management solutions, and improvement in local content scores. The Company expects that these
actions will help to enhance collaboration and cohesive working by the manufacturing and commercial
teams as well as refine the production and reallocation of resources. As a result, the Company will be
able to increase both, volumes and margins, for key products through improved cost efficiency and
economies of scale. In addition, the Company plans to expand its manufacturing footprint viathe Egypt
facility to serve the North African markets which supports its strategy of selectively expanding market
presence.
Jamjoom Pharma
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Jan 2024

Figure 14:
exposure of Jamjoom
Environmental
JP Committed with the standers of Environment, Health, Social, through all their operations and they
responsible to deal with emissions, effluent and solid waste at the source to ensure that there is
minimum impact on environment.
Social
The company committed in the responsible and ethical management of EHS Elements in all its
activities to safe the employees and visitors and contractors. And they committed to the global
standers of ISO 14001 and ISO 45001 certified, To avoid any injury, ill-health. The EHS function
implements an hard training plan to ensure that staff have the required skills based on their training
needs assessment, to carry out routine inspections and audits to ensure EHS compliance. Employment,
the Company and its subsidiaries had 1,255 employees out of which, 401 are Saudi nationals. The
Saudization rate of the Company is
Figure 15: Jamjoom pharma product 45.7%,

Governance
The company committed to the standers that is requirements by the CMA, Governance Regulations issued by
the Capital Market Authority, to manage the relationship between the Board of Directors, executive directors,
And shareholders.

Board of directors
The Board of Directors shall be responsible for managing the Company and doing everything to
uphold the Company’s interests, and develop and maximize its value. the Board be vested with the
broadest powers to manage the Company and in order to achieve its objectives inside and outside of
the Kingdom. The Board of Directors has overall responsibility for establishment and oversight of the
Group’s risk management framework. The executive management team is responsible for developing
and monitoring the Group’s risk management policies. The team regularly meets and any changes and
compliance issues are reported to the Board of Directors (See Appendix G2).

Figure 16: Jamjoom Management

Executive management
The Executive Committee shall exercise all the powers vested therein, submit its reports to the Board,
and keep direct channels of communication open therewith.
The Executive Committee consists of three (3) to five (5) members appointed by the Board of
Directors for a period equal to the membership term of the Board.
The Board shall take the necessary measures to enable the Executive Committee to carry out its
functions, including informing the Executive Committee, without any restrictions, of all data,
information (See Appendix G2).
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Figure 17 Advanced technological capabilities differentiating it in the MEA region

Blow fill and seal technology Soft-gel capsule technology Glatt granulation system Automated dermatology fi equip

1st in KSA to produce 1st in KSA to produce VMS 1st in KSA to use full
ophthalmic products in unit products in soft-gel capsules contain vertical
dose granulation

Advanced aseptic manufacturing in Enhances bioavailability for p-


one continuous system soluble molecule

Figure 18 Top 10 companies in Tender Market (Market share)

10%
Tender Market Size: 9% 9%
9% SAR 21bn
8%

7% 8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5% 5%
4%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2%

1% 1%

Jamjoom Organon Roche GSK Novartis Novo Nordisk Pfize Tabuk SPIMACO Sanofi

Figure 19 Capex as % sales Source: IQVIA MAT June 2022, Al Rajhi Capital

Figure 20 Dividends to remain stable

18.4%
16.7% 87%

66%
60% 60%
55%
9.6% 9.4%
44%

4.8% 4.7%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital

Strengths Weaknesses
1. Human intervention is limited in
modern factories
2. Decline in the Egyptian currency 1. Their reliance on
3. Strength in research, development and tenders in KSA
health production line
4. Large financial profile with a
sustained growth rate
5. Strong position in Saudi Arabian
domestic market
6. No debt
7. 118 brand
8. therapeutic sectors
Jamjoom Pharma
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Jan 2024

Swot analysis

Porter’s five model


Threat of new entrants
It need a large capital in terms of the cost of production, high technologies used in industry, and
government approvals that are difficult to obtain .

Power of supp
The company has factories, so it does not have many suppliers, except for some raw materials so
they rely on long term contracts with suppliers.

Power of buyers
The number of buyers is very high because it is a drug company located in 36 countries, so it is not
possible to negotiate prices and payment dates .
Opportunities Threats
Competitive rivalry
1. Business development strategy 1. Changes in exchange
2. faces
Jamjoom Present in 36
fierce countries in the inner range of (Spimaco and Tabuk).
competition rate
3. is
Spimaco High
the level in targeting
largest key markets
pharmaceutical to
manufacturing 2. with
company, Spimaco a very
a production capacity of
approximately 2.4 billion units annually
accelerate and prioritize growth and a 14% market share in the
strong competitor category.
general medicine
Its market share for government tenders is 9%, while Jamjoom has a market share of 1%. However,
Spimaco's lower profit margins are attributed to its lower investments in research and development
expenses. In the last 5 years, it allocated only 2% of its revenues to research and development,
while Jamjoom allocates 5%. Including in its portfolio there are strong brands such as Vivadol and
sapofen .
Tabuk is the second largest pharmaceutical factory in the Kingdom, with a production capacity
equal to 2 billion units annually. Its market share in government tenders is approximately 8%.
Tabuk focuses on manufacturing generic formulas for patented brands such as Nexium.
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Assumptions and Valuations


Figure 20 R&D and Capex as % of Sales
Since 2022, JP did 7% of it’s total sales in Egypt due to there net currency exposure that happens
800.0
there, while Egypt faced a hundred percent depreciation in there Egyptian pound. However, they took
16.7%
a loan of 57 m USD to build their facility, and invest it in egypt around this number, after that the
currency risk will depend on the sales that will come from the local market, egypt, and other
800.0
subsidiaries, once the facility starts selling the product. Furthermore, it results from the accounting
16.7%
team because they converted the loan into subordinated perpetual instrument in the fourth quarter of
2022(see Appendix D1).
Jamjoom faces fierce competition in the inner range of (Spimaco and Tabuk).
Spimaco is the largest pharmaceutical manufacturing company, with a production capacity of
approximately 2.4 billion units annually and a 14% market share in the general medicine category. Its
market share for government tenders is 9%, while Jamjoom has a market share of 1%. However,
Spimaco's lower profit margins are attributed to its lower investments in research and development
expenses. In the last 5 years, it allocated only 2% of its revenues to research and development, while
Jamjoom allocates 5%. Including in its portfolio there are
strong brands such as Vivadol and Sapofen (see Appendix D2).
Figure 21 Revenue mix by geography
over the years
100% 11%
11%
11%
9%
Tabuk is the second largest pharmaceutical factory in the Kingdom, with a production capacity
90% 9%
9%
80%

70%
7%
7%
7% equal to 2 billion units annually. Its market share in government tenders is approximately 8%. Tabuk
11% 16% 16%
16%
focuses on manufacturing generic formulas for patented brands such as Nexium. Jamjoom Pharma
60%
9% 12%
50% 12%
7% 10%
40%
16% finds itself strategically positioned within a burgeoning market landscape, primarily driven by the
30%

20% 57%
67% 64%
nation’s deliberate strategy to bolster its citizenry. This demographic surge offers a promising
63%
10%

0%
backdrop for pharmaceutical companies, with increased demand for healthcare products and services.
Recognizing the pivotal markets within the region, Jamjoom Pharma has prioritized its efforts to
amplify production capabilities, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
These countries, given their expanding populations and evolving healthcare needs, present lucrative
opportunities for the company to solidify its market presence and cater to growing demands
effectively. The first six months of 2023 marked a pivotal period for Jamjoom Pharma, witnessing a
robust growth trajectory in revenue by a notable 24.52%(see Appendix E1). Such a substantial uptick
underscores the company’s strategic initiatives, market positioning, and the effectiveness of its product
offerings in meeting consumer demands.
As the year progresses, the company is poised for further expansion and growth. The imminent
establishment of two cutting-edge manufacturing facilities in the latter half of the year signifies a
significant leap. With an anticipated surge in production capacity by nearly 67%, Jamjoom Pharma is
gearing up to capitalize on this enhanced capability. This expansion not only positions the company to
cater to escalating market demands but also aims to optimize resource utilization, driving revenues and
fostering sustained growth.

Appendix G1: Business Model


Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Appendix A: Capacity and utilization:

Fiscal Year 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P
Segmental Revenue
Pharmaceutical Products 805 736 917 1,086 1,382 1,491 1,593 1,627
Total 805 736 917 1,086 1,382 1,491 1,593 1,627
YoY% Growth (8.6%) 24.6% 18.5% 27.2% 7.9% 6.8% 2.2%
Overall Capacity (mn Units) 113 113 113 190 190 150 190 190
Current Facility (Old Jeddah) Capacity 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113
New Facility (New Jeddah) Capacity 25 25 25 25 25
New Facility (Egypt) Capacity 52 52 52 52 52
Current Facility (Old Jeddah) Utilization 83% 87% 87% 92% 95% 97% 98% 98%
New Facility (New Jeddah) Utilization 50% 70% 75% 85% 90%
New Facility (Egypt) Utilization 0% 50% 75% 90% 95%
Utilization Rate% 83% 87% 94% 68% 83% 88% 93% 95%
Utilization 94 98 98 116 152 167 179 183
YoY% Utilization 5% 18% 30% 10% 7% 2%
Pharmaceutical Products
Revenue 805 736 917 1,086 1,382 1,491 1,593 1,627
Units Sold 94 98 98 116 152 167 179 183
Average Price per Unit Sold 8.6 7.5 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.9
YoY% Growth -13% 25% 0.0% -25% -2.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Appendix B1: Income statement:


Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Revenue 805 736 917 1,086 1,382 1491 1,593 1,627


Cost of sales (enter as -) (292) (261) (323) (391) (S04) (544) (S89) (602)
Gross Profit $13 475 594 695 877 947 1,004 1,025
Research & development (36) (37) (33) (38) (48) (52) (56) (57)
(enter as -) (237) (253) (328) (375) (477) (507) (534) (537)
Selling, general & 240 185 233 282 352 388 414 431
administrative (enter as -) 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating profit (EBIT) 0 (4) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Interest income (10) (1) (51) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)
Interest expense (enter as -) 1 7 5 5 S 5 5 5
Other expense (enter as -) (1) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0)
Other Income 232 188 186 286 356 391 418 435
Income From Associates (25) (17) (15) (23) (28) (31) (33) (35)
Pretax profit 207 171 171 263 327 360 384 400
Taxes (enter expense as -)
Net income
Basic shares outstanding 70 70 70 70 SAR 70 SAR 70 70 70
Impact of dilutive securities 0 0 0 0 SAR 0 0 0 0
Diluted shares outstanding 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
Basic EPS SAR 2.96 SAR 2.44 SAR 2.45 SAR 4.67 SAR SAR5.49 SARS.71
Diluted EPS SAR 2.96 SAR 2.44 SAR 2.45 3.75 4.67 5.14 SAR SAR 5.71
25.5% SAR 25.5% 5.14 5.49 26.5%
3.75 26.0% 26.0%
26.0%
Revenue growth NA (8.6%) 24.6% 18.5% 27.2% 7.9% 6.8% 2.2%
Gross profit as % of sales 63.7% 64.5% 64.8% 64.0% 63.5% 63.5% 63.0% 63.0%
R&D margin 4.5% 5.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
SG&A margin 29.4% 34.4% 35.8% 34.5% 34.5% 34.0% 33.5% 33.0%
Tax rate 10.7% 9.2% 8.1% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Depreciation & amortization 42 24 25 28 33 44 47 48
Stock based compensation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 283 209 258 310 385 432 461 479

Appendix B2: Market share and Revenue portions: (top down)


Revenue 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Saudi Arabia 539 466 587 655 803 842 899 978
Gulf 52 73 109 155 161 167 176 184
Iraq 52 65 91 96 101 109 116 122
Egypt 59 67 64 123 131 140 151 163
North africa and other 104 65 66 66 66 66 66 66
Total 805 736 917 1,095 1,261 1,324 1,407 1,513
%of total
Saudi Arabia 67% 63% 64% 60% 64% 64% 64% 65%
Gulf 6% 10% 12% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12%
Iraq 6% 9% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Egypt and north africa 7% 9% 7% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11%
Market Share
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
1-KSA
Total 15,80 15,700 16,700 17,500 18,200 19,110 20,058 20,900 21,73
Pharmaceutical mi 0 6
YOY % -1% 6% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4%
Jamjoom 539 466 587 655 803 842 899 978
Revenues
Jamjoom Market 3.4% 2.8% 3.4% 3.6% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.5%
Share
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

2-Gulf
Total 7,400 6,800 7,700 7,900 8,177 8,463 8,804 9,245 9,707
Pharmaceutical mi
YOY % -8% 13% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Jamjoom 52 73 109 155 161 167 176 184
Revenues
Jamjoom Market 0.8% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Share
2-Iraq
Total 4,300 3,900 4,200 4,400 4,620 4,897 5,240 5,600 5,880
Pharmaceutical mi
YOY % -9% 8% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 5%
Jamjoom 52 65 91 96 101 109 116 122
Revenues
Jamjoom Market 1.3% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Share
2-Egypt and north
africa
Total 11,10 12,500 14,500 14,700 15,435 16,361 17,506 18,900 20,41
Pharmaceutical mi 0 2
YOY % 13% 16% 1% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8%
Jamjoom 59 67 64 123 131 140 151 163
Revenues
Jamjoom Market 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Share

Appendix B3: Balance sheet:

x BALANCESHEET
Cash & equivalents ST & LT market. securities 113 146 159 109 191 303 432
Accounts receivable 367 352 424 535 574 610 618
Inventory 135 132 176 222 226 242 241
Deferred tax assets 0 0 t) 0 0 0 0
Other current assets (inc. non-trade receivables) 0 0 tt) 0 0 0 0
Property, plant & equipment 714 705 734 772 790 809 828
Acquired intangible assets (inc. Goodwill) 15 14 15 15 15 16 16
Appendix
Investment in Associates 4 0.3 0 0 0 0 i?) C1:
Other assets 85 63 61 64 68 72 77 Intangible
Total assets 1,432 1,413 1,568 1,717 1,865 2,051 2,212
Accounts payable 118 109 154 166 163 189 181
assets and
Accrued expenses & def rev. (current & non-current) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PP&E:
Revolver 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
Long term debt 2 3 2 2 2 2 2
Other non-current liabilities 80 80 85 91 98 106 11S
Total liabilities 201 192 241 260 263 296 297
Common stock / additional paid in capital 100 700 700 700 700 700 700
Treasury stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Retained eamings / accumulated deficit 1,120 524 629 760 904 1,058 1,218
Other comprehensive income / (loss) (4) (37) (37) (37) (37) (37) (37)
Other 12 (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8)
Total equity 1,227 1,179 1,284 1,415 1,559 1,713 1,873
Balance check 4 42 42 42 42 42 42
Ratios (144) (156) (107) (189) (301) (430)
Net debt (111) 0.65x 0.69x 0.80x 0.80x 0.78x 0.74x
Asset tumover (Revenue / Total assets) 0,51x 18.7% 24.2% 23.7% 24.1% 24.1% 24.6%
Net profit margin 23.2% 12.1% 16.8% 19.1% 19.3% 18.7% 18.1%
Return on assets (ROA) 11.9%
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

INTANGIBLE ASSETS (INC.


GOODWILL)
Fiscal year 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P
Fiscal year end date 12/31/20 12/31/21 12/31/22 12/31/23 12/31/24 12/31/25 12/31/26 12/31/27
Beginning of period 0 15 15 14 15 15 15 16
Plus: Purchases of intangible (0) 0 2 2 2 2 3 3
assets (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
Less: Amortization 14 15 15 15 16 16
End of period 2 2 2 2 3 3
Purchases of intangible assets (2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
(enter as +)
Amortization (enter as -)
PROPERTY, PLANT &
EQUIPMENT
Fiscal year 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P
Fiscal year end date 12/31/20 12/31/21 12/31/22 12/31/23 12/31/24 12/31/25 12/31/26 12/31/27
Beginning of period 714 705 734 773 791 810
Plus: Capital expenditures 13 54 69 60 64 65
Plus: Capital expenditures(Lease (18) 0 0 0 0 0
Assets) (0.3) (26) (30) (42) (45) (46)
Less: Depreciation 705 734 773 791 810 829
End of period 714
Capex (enter as +) 149 123 13 54 69 60 64 65
Capital expenditures as % of 18.4% 16.7% 1.4% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
revenue (42) (22) (18) (26) (30) (42) (45) (46)
Depreciation (enter as -) 28.1% 18.2% 139.3% 47.0% 44.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0%
Depreciation as a % of capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
expenditures 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Capex (enter as +) (ROU) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capital expenditures as % of
revenue
Depreciation (enter as -) (ROU)

Appendix C2: Working capital


:
Metric 2021A 2022A 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P
Fiscal Year End Date 12/31/21 12/31/22 12/31/23 12/31/24 12/31/25 12/31/26 12/31/27
Accounts Receivable 367 424 535 574 610 618 618
AR Increase/(Decrease) - 71 111 39 36 8 -
End of Period AR 367 424 535 574 610 618 618
AR as % of Sales 49.9% 38.4% 39.0% 38.7% 38.5% 38.3% 38.0%
DSO (Days) 182 140 142 141 141 140 139
Inventory 135 176 222 226 242 241 241
Inventory Increase/(Decrease) - 44 46 4 16 (1) (1)
End of Period Inventory 135 176 222 226 242 241 240
Inventory as % of COGS 51.8% 40.9% 45.0% 44.0% 41.5% 41.0% 40.0%
Inventory Turnover 1.9x 2.4x 2.2x 2.3x 2.4x 2.4x 2.5x
Accounts Payable 118 154 166 163 189 181 181
AP Increase/(Decrease) - 45 12 (3) 25 (8) (8)
End of Period AP 118 154 166 163 189 181 173
AP as % of COGS 45.4% 33.8% 39.4% 33.0% 30.0% 32.0% 30.0%
DPO (Days) 166 123 144 120 110 117 110

Appendix C3: Retained earnings and OCI:


Metric 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P
Fiscal Year End Date 12/31/20 12/31/21 12/31/22 12/31/23 12/31/24 12/31/25 12/31/26 12/31/27
Retained Earnings
- Beginning of Period 524 629 760 904 1058
- Plus: Net Income 263 327 360 384 400
- Less: Common Dividends (158) (196) (216) (230) (240)
- End of Period 1,120 524 629 760 904 1,058 1,218
Net Income 207 171 171 263 327 360 384 400
Dividend Payout Ratio 43.7% 66.4% 86.8% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0% 60.0%
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Common Dividends (91) (113) (149) (158) (196) (216) (230) (240)
OA: Other Comprehensive Income/(Loss)
- Beginning of Period (37) (37) (37) (37) (37)
- Plus: Income/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0
- End of Period (4) (37) (37) (37) (37) (37) (37) (37)

Appendix D1: Perpetuity and exit EBITDA multiple approaches:

Metric Value
Normalized FCF in Last Forecast Period (t) 366
Normalized FCF +1 380
Long Term Growth Rate (g) 4.000%
Terminal Value 6,700
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,620
Present Value of Stage 1 Cash Flows 1,051
Enterprise Value 5,672
Implied TV Exit EBITDA Multiple 13.979x
Exit EBITDA Multiple Approach 18.047x
Terminal Year EBITDA 8,650
Terminal Value EBITDA Multiple 4.000%
Terminal Value 5,965
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,051
Present Value of Stage 1 Cash Flows 479
Enterprise Value 7,017
Implied TV Perpetual Growth Rate 5.027%

ppendix D2: Cost of capital (WACC):

Metric Value
Cost of Debt 7.0%
Tax Rate 8.0%
After Tax Cost of Debt 6.4%
Risk-Free Rate 4.0%
Beta 1.00
Market Risk Premium 5.6%
Cost of Equity 9.6%
Capital Weights Amount
Market Value of Equity $9,772.0
% of Total 101.5%
Net Debt ($143.7)
% of Total (1.5%)
Cost of Capital (WACC) 9.7%

Appendix E1: Beta:


Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Market Tax
Company Observed Beta Share Price Cap Cash Debt Rate Delivered Beta
MSFT 0.68 $44.83 $8,260.0 $370,296 $103,217 23,473 18.0% 0.83
GOOD 1.14 $589.47 $675.9 $398,423 $65,375 8396 10.9% 1.31
AMZN 0.77 $359.76 $460.2 $165,551 $8,666 3,147 31.8% 0.79
XYZ 1.00 $105.60 $70,000 $7,392 $146 3 8.0% 1.02
Industry Average
Delivered Beta 0.99 - - - - - -

Appendix F1: Free cash flow buildup:

Fiscal Year 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P
EBITDA 283 209 258 310 385 432 461 479
EBIT 240 185 233 282 352 388 414 431
Tax Rate 10.7% 9.2% 8.1% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
EBIAT (NOPAT) 215 168 215 260 324 357 381 397
Depreciation and Amortization 28 33 44 47 48
Stock-Based Compensation 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts Receivable (71) (111) (39) (36) (8)
Inventory (44) (46) (4) (16) 1
Accounts Payable 45 12 (3) 25 (8)
Accrued Expenses & Def Revenues 0 0 0 0 0
Other Current Assets (Inc. Non-Trade Rec.) 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred Tax Assets (DTAs) 0 0 0 0 0
Other Assets 1 (3) (4) (4) (5)
Other Non-Current Liabilities 5 6 7 8 9
Unlevered CFO 223 215 357 406 433
Less: Capex (54) (69) (60) (64) (65)
Less: Purchases of Intangible Assets (2) (2) (2) (3) (3)
Unlevered FCF 167 144 295 339 366
% Growth -14.1% 105.6% 14.9% 7.8% 34%
Discount Factor 2% 102% 202% 302% 402%
Midperiod Adjustment Factor 0.02 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Present Value of Unlevered FCF 167 131 245 257 252

Appendix F3: Perpetuity and exit EBITDA

Weights
P/E 125.26 15.0% 18.79
EV/EBITDA 70.59 15.0% 10.59
DCF_Perpetuity 83.08 35.0% 29.08
DCF_EBITDA Exit 102.29 35.0% 35.8
94.26
139.6

Figure 25 Margin profile over the years Key Risks

57.7%
70%
60%
25.7%
25.1%
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Risk relating to the company’s supply chain:


To make medicines, a company needs specific ingredients called APIs and other raw materials.
These ingredients must come from approved sources regulated by health authorities. Among all
the materials needed, APIs are the most important.
In the medicine industry, there aren't many suppliers for some of these key ingredients.
Sometimes, a company has to depend on just one or a few suppliers for these essential ingredients.
The company tries to have more than one reliable supplier for most products, but it's not always
possible because there aren't many suppliers available in the industry.
Risks related to the complexity of manufacturing the Company's products:
The company works hard to make really good medicines for its customers. Making these
medicines is tough because there are strict rules the company has to follow. They use complicated
machines and computer systems to help them make the medicines and talk to others about getting
the right stuff, checking the quality, and sending the medicines out.
Sometimes, things can go wrong when making these medicines. It could be because the machines
break, rules aren't followed correctly, the materials used aren't good, or other problems like bad
weather. If the problems are serious, the company might have to stop making some or all of its
medicines until they fix the issues.

Risk related to cross border sales of products in foreign countries:


A large number of sales related to medicines occur outside Saudi Arabia, and this is considered
one of the company’s plans and strategies, and the company may expand further in selling in
African countries, which it will expand sales and purchases across different countries will likely
happen. But when a company operates in different countries, there are risks involved, including,
but not limited to:
 Currency exchange rate fluctuations or imposition of foreign exchange controls.

 Increased difficulty in collecting unpaid accounts.

 Differing local product preferences and product requirements.

 Differing tax regimes.

 Risk of loss at sea or other delays in delivering the products caused by transportation
problems.
Any of these points could affect the company’s operating results.

Political and economic risk:


The majority of the Company primarily operates in Saudi Arabia, and its financial performance
depends on the prevailing economic and political conditions in Saudi Arabia, as well as global
economic conditions that impact Saudi Arabia's economy.
Saudi Arabia's economy relies heavily on the oil sector, which contributes significantly to the
GDP. Fluctuations in oil prices could have a negative impact on the economy of Saudi Arabia. In
addition, the country is facing high levels of population growth. Together, these circumstances
pose a significant risk to the Company's business, financial position, operating results and future
prospects.
The Company's performance is also influenced by various economic factors, such as the
availability of consumer credit, interest rates, unemployment rates, wage levels, tax rates, costs
associated with water and electricity consumption, and the potential removal of government
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

subsidies for certain materials. Changes in these factors can affect consumer spending and demand
for the Company's products. Failure to adapt to market changes can have a negative and
substantial impact on the Company's business, financial position, operating results, and prospects.
Moreover, many countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, are currently experiencing
political and security instability. The Company's oprations can be adversely affected by negative
diplomatic relations, economic and political conditions, or other factors in these countries or other
nations. Such factors can also impact the overall economy, foreign direct investment, and
financial markets in Saudi Arabia, further affecting the Company's business, operating results,
financial position, and prospects.
Any unexpected significant changes in the political, economic, or legal environment in Saudi
Arabia, other Middle Eastern countries, or countries from which the Company sources its
products, including market fluctuations, recessions, insolvency, employment weakness,
technological shifts, or other developments, can also have an adverse effect on the Company.

1% 2%
Additionally, substantial changes in tax or trade policies, tariffs, or trade relations between Saudi
7% 4%
8% 6%
6%
7% 7%
12%
7% 12% Arabia and other countries, as well as alterations in local policies such as the imposition of
10% 9% 9%

60% 7% 9% 10%
10% unilateral tariffs on imported products or negative sentiments towards Saudi Arabia due to
16%
18%
20%
increased import tariffs and changes in trade regulations, can result in increased costs for the
50% 18%

40% 19%
Company, limited access to suppliers, and reduced economic activity.
18% 18%
16%
If any of the aforementioned factors occur, they will significantly and unfavorably impact the
32%
27% Company's business, operating results, financial condition, and future prospects.
31%
Figure2019
22: Revenue mix
2020over the years by TA
2021 2022

Risk related to VAT:


The Company has fulfilled its obligation to submit all of its VAT declarations since its registration
(starting from January 2018 until the present time of this Prospectus), all within the legally
required timeframes. Additionally, the Company has promptly settled all outstanding liabilities
owed to the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority within the legally established deadlines.
Confirmation from the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority has been obtained, acknowledging the
acceptance of all VAT returns submitted from the inception of the Company up to September
2022. As per the existing Tax/Zakat regulations in KSA, if the Tax/Zakat returns are submitted
within the statutory deadline, the statute of limitations for any potential penalties is set at five (5)
years from the date of filing the declaration.
Analysis:
Anticipated to commence production in the latter half of 2023, Jamjoom is
expanding its production capabilities. The company, with an efficient primary facility in Jeddah
operating at 85% utilization (as of June 2022), is constructing two additional facilities. One,
situated in Egypt, boasts an annual production capacity of 52 million, while the other, a sterile
facility in Jeddah, has an annual production capacity of 25 million (see Appendix A1). This
expansion is set to elevate the total annual production capacity to 190 million by the end of this
year. Additionally, with the introduction of these new factories, we are increasing our growth
expectations, positioning ourselves to meet rising demand and efficiently export products to North
African markets.
As of COGS JP sees that they won’t need more human force in their two new facilities. So
because of that we expect COGS to remain with the same growth rate and we don’t expect
Health 26%
CNS 7% surprising figures in there. And by stabling COGS growth rate that will directly affect the net
OTC 8%

Ophthalmology
General Medicine income. As a prominent pharmaceutical manufacturer in Saudi Arabia, the Company holds a
13%
22%
Dermatology
GIT 4%
12%
Cardiovascular
8%
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

noteworthy position in the market. In the ophthalmic segment (see Appendix C2), one of the five
key areas, the Company secured a market share of 20.6% in 2021G, as highlighted in a market
study report by the Market Consultant in August 2022G. Jamjoom’s market share growth is
influenced by societal and macroeconomic trends, such as the increasing prevalence of generic
medicines and the Company’s belief in the strong performance of its products due to customer
preferences. The Company’s market position is further strengthened by
Figure 23: Active Portfolio
government-led initiatives and investments in the local healthcare and manufacturing sectors,
aligning with the Vision 2030 objectives. The demand is expected to increase due to the
government’s inclination to boost the population, further contributing to the Company’s growth
prospects. This national strategy aims to enhance private sector involvement in the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia’s economy. Pharmaceutical manufacturing holds a central role in the National
11% Industrial Development and Logistics Program, targeting a 40% domestic production of all
8%
pharmaceuticals consumed in the country, up from the current approximate 30%. This
5%

4%
governmental support serves as a significant boost for the Company as a leading domestic
3% manufacturer, positioning it to gain additional market share in the coming years.
3%

1%
2% While our expectation is not for a substantial increase in the company’s market share, there is an
2%
expectation of significant overall growth in the sector’s value. On the other hand JP was building
two factories in the same time and that will burn more cash that ever before. Due to that we expect
that the next 3 years they wont generate a lot of cash, but in
the long run they will have more and more than previous years. Also inventory will rise due to the
two new facilities and that will help delivering products fast and recognizing the revenue faster
than before. In term of payables the company sees that they don’t expect any surprises and they
are trying to maintain these numbers without taking it further much more. But the receivables in
2023 were significantly higher than previous years and according to the financial statements of
Jamjoom, they faced an increasing in account receivable with approximately 40m SAR, due to the
sales growth, seasonal variations which they had experience fluctuations in sales level during the
year, and the finished goods that have not yet been exported from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, which
we can consider it as a customer delays. in Perpetuity and exit EBITDA multiple approaches we
used a 4.5% (see Appendix B2) risk free rate because of the expectations of deducting the interest
rates starting from Q1 2024. Beta was taken from the largest companies in the world to have more
accurate close beta that we can rely on. And the cost of debt after tax that is because the debt was
taken from Egypt and there average tax rate is 8%. The industry average P/E ratio in 22.52 so we
used that multiple in the P/E valuation. After having all of these results and because the DCF
model is more accurate to evaluate JP we gave it the highest weights and the multiples were

lower. Our target price is 94.26 SAR (see Appendix F3) and for now the company is sell.

Metric Value
EBITDA 2023 2024
Enterprise Value SAR SAR 7,017
5,672
Less: Net Debt SAR 144 SAR 144
Less: Trapped Cash SAR 0 SAR 0
Equity Value SAR SAR 7160
5,815
Diluted Shares SAR SAR
70.000 70.000
Equity Value per Share SAR SAR
83.08 102.29
Market 68.00% 36.50%
Premium/(Discount) to
Fair Value
Appendix F2: Fair Value per Share:
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

Financials in Charts

Revenue mix over the years by TA Active Portfolio

100% 1% 2% 4%
8% 7% 6% 6%
90% 7% 7% 7% Consumer Ophthalmology
12% Health 22%
80% 10% 12% 9%
7% 10% 9% 26%
70% 9%
10%
60% 18% 16%
20%
50% 18%
40% 18% 19%
18% 16%
30%
20% Dermatology
10% 32% 27% 31% 26%
OTC 12%
0% 8%
2019 2020 2021 2022
GIT
CNS 7% 4%
Ophthalmic Dermal General Medicine Consumer General
Cardiovascular
Medicine
Health GIT OTC CVD CNS 8%
13%
Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital

Supplier Concentration Margin profile over the years

63.7% 64.5% 64.8%


70.0%

60.0% 57.7%
11%
50.0
%
8%
33.8%
Top 10

40.0 29.8% 29.1% 28.3%


5% % 29.8%
4% 30.0
4% %
23.9 25.1% 25.5%
20.0%
3% % 25.7 23.2%
Others, 58% 3% 10.0% % 18.7%
21.4
2% 0.0% %
1% 2019 2020 2021 2022
2%
EBITDA Margin Gross Margin

Operating Margin Net Margin

Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital Source: Company Data, Al Rajhi Capital

R&D and Capex as % of Sales


1000.0 Revenue mix by geography over the years

20.0% 100% 8% 9% 7%
18.4% 11% 6% 9% 10%
900.0 18.0% 90%
16.7% 916.7 9% 7% 7%
800.0 16.0% 80% 9%
7%
700.0 805.3 14.0% 70% 12% 12%
731.7 10%
735. 16%
600.0 701.3 60%
7 12.0%
500.0 50%
9.6% 10.0%
400.0 9.4% 40%
8.0% 67% 64%
300.0 6.7% 30% 57% 63%
5.0 6.0%
200.0 20%
4.5% %
100.0 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 4.0% 10%
2.0%
0.0 0%
2018 2019 0.0% 2019 2020
2020 2022 2021 2022 2022
2021 KSA Gulf Egypt
Iraq North Africa
Jamjoom Pharma
Pharmaceuticals: Healthcare 26
Jan 2024

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