Analysis Global population Why falling birth rates will bea bigger problem than overpopulation Nearly every country is predicted to have a birth rate that is too low to maintain its population by 2100, which may resultin too few people of working age, says Clare Wilson Tartoigertpopstenpeoems DT andyourightthinkofthe owing . urbe of peopein he world = [Number of chidrenthat must Cuenty about lion ardour be Born per woman tokeep colectvetolontre planet Butdue _apopuationconstant ‘opeople having ewerchien as countries become more prosperous, 76% the rel demographic preter may ‘umouttobefalingpopuatins. By 2050, thisproportionof Projecting fomcurrentirends, _countiesare projected tohave cemograghershavenow predicted birthratesbelow the 2. level ‘hat within about 25 years, iree-unresciconresvll — Oey have th rates at are too low omaintain ther populations. ‘By 2100, this proportion ot Wile hisrmay be good newsfor _countriesare projected to have ‘heenvronment havingfewer —_—brthratesbelow the 2. level working-age peopeto support ‘hose wha ae older resents, ‘huge economic challenge ‘The latest projectons also indicate ‘hattnere wilbea sharp divide between counties with ow bith rates and general high incomes ~ such asmost European nations - anda smalernumber of counties, mainyin fica withhgher bith rates and aw incomes. ‘We are facing staggering socal changettrough the 21stCentury* Thebirthratein China researcher SteinEmlValiset atthe has droppedsharply University of WashingloninSeatle inrecent years sidinastaterent. “The world wilbe simultaneous tacking baby boomin some countries anda babybustinotners* Demographic time bomb Maintaining economic and societal Stay inte face of these stark afererces leone of thekey challenges his century Sowhat should counties be dong to prepare fortis demographic timebomb? \Whilethetendof arising .dobal popuiation has long (used ervronmentalconcems, demoaraphes also knew t woul continue indefinitely Estimates vay but we seer an course tohit “peak people" sometime between 2060 and 2080, withahead count of9.Sto 10 alion people, faling thereater Thelatstprojectons from Valset's tear ae broadly in ine with previous predictions from bodies shas the United Nationsin terms of lobaltends wnatisnew isa ‘mare detaledbreakaown of now things wilchange countryby country, based on he latest data onbith rates for five-year age groups om, thoseagedbeteen 20 and 54, rected tothe year 2100. Counties generalyrequre bitrate of 2.1 chitrenper “woman forte popuiations tostay constant Volts eam found hat.by 2080, the bth rate wilhave fallenbelow tis leven 76 percent of countries By 2100, this isforecasttobe 97 percent (The Lancet dot orgimado} ‘the same time, people are lina onger,s0 populations as a wholehave fewer people of ‘working age whe canhelp provide forolder people andatherswho are economically nace. An ageing population cannot be ave says \Vegard Skitbek atthe Norwegian Institut of Pubic Heath in Oslo. "However one should ry tomake ‘the transit slow inorder ta beter beable toprepareforthisprocess” Toso fling birtates, high-income countries should attempt to make teaser and mare attractive for people to have nore ‘ren forinstance byImpravng ‘access to housing and fertity treatments, says Sib, Change of focus Countries aka needtopianto cope ‘wth her soritng and agesra populations by bulding more hosp, updating ranspot systems andnaving {ewer schools saysMetnca Mis atthe Univers of Oxford “Cesare foousing ‘ongettna people schoalsandto ‘work They mighthaveto focus more ‘engeting tert shops and pospias* Jenner Scuoba at ne Wison ‘cent athinktank in Washington OC, says companies also needta make Teaser for older people to stay in ‘work for onger, for instance, on reducedhours "Weave thisbinary ‘ew that youre ether working or nol but that dovsrfthave to be he case she says. ‘Aminortyof counties however, face he opposte chalenge of havingaigherbirthrate tan the 2.1 replacementlevelThenew ‘Study finds this will probaby stil betru even in 2100, Mostsuch nations willbe sub-Saharan ica andare projected to account for one ineverytwochikrentbom by 2100, Intnese counties, better access tocontracepion and education for ‘irs have been shown toreduce beth rates says Scubba. Migration from high-rate andlow-incomne ‘countess also thet fo continue, ‘which couldleadto competion between higner-incomenatons for migrants romsub-Saharan Aca, ‘theauthors of thenew study sayin ‘ter paper. “However tis approach vwilloniy workifthereisashiftin ‘urent public and poltical attnudes towards ireigration, theysay.H oMarch2004|New lentist 3