Goutam Mandal

Roll No: 1916034

Class: PGPEM (2019-2021)

1). Below is the data set i.e.BMW car models VS Segment Type VS Market VS price

a) Statistics Summary:

Confidential C
b)

Confidential C
 Average Price Vs Country Vs Segment

p
R 120000
I
C 100000
E
I 80000
HACHBACK
N SEDAN
60000
U SUV
S
D 40000

20000

0
CHINA EUROPE JAPAN UK USA
COUNTRY

c) From the given data set I can see that the mean price of all vehicles in all
segments and in all market is more than the median price, means the price
distribution is not equilibrium about the mean and there are few outliers in the
price data set.
Also it can be seen that 1) the average highest & lowest cost of SUV &
hatchback are in Japan & USA respectively ,in the given data set, and 2) the
average highest & lowest cost of Sedan are in CHINA & USA respectively ,in the
given data set.

d) If we could get the sales volume and cost for each segment in each market, we
could have find out the revenue & profit with respect to market and segment.
Said statistic could be on of the decision factors of a car manufacturer for
investment i.e. in which market and which segment need to invest more for profit
optimization

2. Solve

(ii)A.Page 148 @ Q1
a) P( Install) =0.3 ( Given)
P (Not install) = 1-P (Install) = 1-0.3= 0.7(The probability that a randomly selected
household from this suburb has not installed an electronic security system)

Confidential C
 b) The probability that neither of two randomly selected households has installed an
electronic security system is (Probability of two independent events of A & B =
P(A) *P(B))= 0.7*0.7= 0.49

(ii)B. Page 149 @ Q3

Probability that the subscription will be less than 3000 i.e.P(N<3000)= 1/4 (Given).

Probability that the subscription will be 3000<=N<=5000 i.e.P(3000<=N<=5000)=

1/3( Given)

Therefore, Probability (N>5000)= 1-(1/4+1/3)= 5/12

Therefore Probability of N<3000 or N>5000 i.e. P(N<3000 or N>5000)=

1/4 +5/12 =8/12=2/3

(ii) C Page 155@Q11

a) P(x<=2) = P(x=2)+P(x=1)+P(x=0)= 0.3+0.2+0.1= 0.6
b) P(1<x<=3)= P(x=2)+P(x=3)=0.3+0.3=0.6
c) P(x>0)=P(x=1)+P(x=2)+P(x=3)+P(x=4) =0.2+0.3+0.3+0.1=0.9
d) P(x>3/x>2) =P(x=4)/(P(x=3)+P(x=4)) =0.1/(0.3+0.1)=1/4=0.25

e) Mean of a probability distribution(µ)= Expected value(E(x))

µ=E(x) =∑ Vi P (Vi) V P(V)

0 0.1
=0x0.1+1x0.2+2x0.3+3x0.3+4x0.1=2.1 1 0.2
2 0.3
3 0.3
4 0.1

f) σ^2 =Var(x)=∑( Vi –E(x))^ 2*P(Vi)

=(0-2.1)^2x0.1+(1-2.1)^2x0.2+(2-2.1)^2x0.3+(3-2.1)^2x0.3+(4-2.1)^2x0.1=1.289
Therefore, Standard Deviation= √ (σ^2) =√( Variance) =√1.289 =1.136

Confidential C
(ii) D Page 155@Q13
a) The probability distribution of “x” is as follow:

x P(X=x)
2 1/9=0.1111
2.5 2/9=0.2222
3 4/9=0.4444
3.5 2/9=0.2222

b) P(x<3)=P(x=2)+P(x=2.5)=0.1111+0.2222=0.3333
c) P(x>3)= P(x=3.5)= 0.2222
d) µ=E(x)=∑ Vi P(Vi)=2.8886
e) σ^2 =Var(x)=∑( Vi –E(x))^ 2*P(Vi) =0.210
Standard Deviation= √ (σ^2)=0.458

(ii) E Page 160@Q19

(i) A Page 162@Q24

a) Probability both questions return= 0.4x0.4= 0.16(Given Independent

probability=0.4)

b) Probability neither question will return:

P (Not return) = 1-P (return) = 0.6
Therefore required Probability= 0.6x0.6=0.36
c) P( all 10 will return)= 0.4^10= 0.000105
P (Not a single out of 10 will return) = (1-0.4) ^10 =0.00605

(i) B Page 163@Q31

a) Distribution of net gain or loss:

Value(Y) Probability(P(y)

Confidential C
 -8000 x/2=0.273
0 X=0.545
15000 x/3=0.182
(Given: X/2+x+x/3=1)

b) Expected value:
µ=E(x)=∑ Yi P(Yi) = -8000x).273+0x0.545+15000x0.182= 546

Variance: = (-8000-546) ^2x0.273+ (0-546) ^2x0.545+ (15000-546) ^2x0.182=

58123884

Standard Deviation=√ (Variance) =7623.90

(i) C Page 163@Q34

No of children Grand
Types of Job 0 children 1 children 2 children Total
Full time Job 98 126 83 307
No Job 16 86 163 265
Part time Job 39 59 80 178
Grand Total 153 271 326 750
(Given Data)

a) P( No job outside home/>=1 child)= (P(No job outside home and >= 1
Child))/P(>= 1 child) = (86+163)/(271+326)=0.417
b) P( No children/Works Part time)=39/178 =0.219
c) P(>= 2 children/ Does not work full time)=(163+80)/(265+178)=0.549

Confidential C
(iii) A.Page 187@Q1
Midterm exam grades

Normally distributed grades

Mean (µ) 75
Stdev(σ) 9

Letter grade cutoff

scores
Letter Percentile Score Formula Used
A 0.9 86.5 NORMINV(B9,$B$4,$B$5)
B 0.8 82.6 NORMINV(B10,$B$4,$B$5)
C 0.7 79.7 NORMINV(B11,$B$4,$B$5)
D 0.6 77.3 NORMINV(B11,$B$4,$B$5)

OR.
Z= (x-µ)/σ.

Z= 1.28(from Normal probability table against 90%).

Therefore, x=1.28x9+75=86.5.

Similarly we can find the score for other grades.

(iii) B.Page 187@Q2

Mean (µ) 75
Stdev(σ) 20
(Given)

a) X=85 ( Given)
Z= (x- µ)/ σ= (85-75)/20 =0.5
Therefore, Probability against z (0.5) =69.15%

b) P(z1)-P(z2)= P((85-75)/20)- P((65-75)/20)

=p (0.5) -p (-0.5)
=0.6915-(1-p (0.5)) =0.383=38.3%
c) Probability of customer spends more than $45 = 1- Probability of customer
spends less than $45

Confidential C
 Therefore, Z= (45-75)/20= -1.5

P (<-1.5) =P (>1.5) =1-P (1.5) =0.0668

Therefore required Probability= 1-0.0668= 0.9332=93.32%

d) (X-75)/20= z (against 75%) = 0.68.

Therefore, X=88.6

e) Dollar = NORMINV( 0.2,75,20) = 58.167

f) 5% 75 95%

90%
X1 X2

Z= (x2-75)/20 =1.65(against 95%)

Therefore, X2= 33+75= 108

And, x1= 75-33= 42.

(iii) C. Page 188@Q6

Mean 60
Stdev 20
Percentage Score Formula Range of score % of student of Grade D
0.3 49.51199 NORMINV(0.3,60,20) 15.14302106 20%
0.1 34.36897 NORMINV(0.1,60,20)
(iii)D.Page 189@Q15

z= (x- µ)/ σ = (5-4)/σ = 1.03(against the right tail 15%~ 0.85)

Therefore, σ (Standard Deviation) = 0.9708
3. Describe a real-life example of a random variable whose distribution can be modelled
as a Binomial distribution. Calculate probability of an event, of your choice, in that
context.

Confidential C
 Real Life Example a: We have classes on Fri and Sat at IIMB. To attain the class I have
to come to Bangalore from Chennai by catching 6AM bus on Friday and going back to
Chennai by catching 7.30 PM bus on Saturday

I have figured out the probability of success of catching 6AM bus on Fri is 0.8, while the
probability of catching 7.30 PM bus on Saturday is 0.9
The number of week in 1st term is 10 i.e. 10 Fri and 10 Sat. Since there are multiple
trials of same incident with each day, this can be modelled as Binomial Distribution.

Binomial probability distribution for Friday & Saturday as below:

3. Example b. When we are calling a phone number there is a probability that the
number will be busy, probability distribution of this will be a binomial Distribution.

Let’s the probability of a phone number will be busy is 0.2. In this context let’s find the
probability that 8 out of 10 phones will be busy.
So,
n= no of total phone number =10
p= Individual & Independent probability of busy = 0.2
q = Probability of not busy = 1-0.2= 0.8
x= Interested Phone Number = 8
Therefore, required Probability:
P( X=10) = nCx p^x q^(n-x)=45x0.2^8x0.8^2 = 45x0.00000256x 0.64 = 0.0000737

Confidential C
Confidential C