Keeping the peace

Abstract
This activity, “Keeping the Peace in Guinea-Bissau,” simulates the process by which peacekeeping
missions are designed and implemented by the United Nations. You will assume the role of the
Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping
Operations and be tasked with designing and implementing a mission to restore peace in
Guinea-Bissau after months of post-election political violence. In this capacity, you will

1. Design a peacekeeping mission

2. Lobby the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution authorizing a
peacekeeping mission to Guinea-Bissau within a UN General Assembly-approved
budget
3. Implement the peacekeeping mission under intense political scrutiny

Learning Goals
After reading your text and completing this exercise, you will be able to:

● Describe the roles of and relationships among the UN Security Council, UN General
Assembly, and Department of Peacekeeping Operations in international peacekeeping
efforts
● Explain why international security is difficult to achieve in an anarchical environment
● Identify obstacles to successful peacekeeping operations

1
Introduction
Six months ago Guinea-Bissau – a small country located on the Atlantic coast of West Africa – held a
general election that devolved into open political violence. Tens of thousands of people have since
died, and the country’s capital city, Bissau, is in ruins. The UN Secretary-General has just returned
from Bissau with a negotiated settlement, which includes a truce built on the promise of a UN
mission to preserve the peace and allow the country to rebuild. As Under-Secretary-General of the
UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, it is your job to craft, pass, and implement this
peacekeeping mission.

Your first task is to design the mission, taking into account budget constraints and the situation in
Guinea-Bissau, as described in the Technical Field Assessment. Open the Technical Field Assessment
to get started!

Overview: Seven years ago, General Joao Cabral led a group of military officers in a
successful coup against the elected government of Guinea-Bissau. After six years of
pressure from the West and internal dissent, General Cabral agreed to hold elections,
which occurred six months ago. In those elections, General Cabral ran against Dr.
Henrique Perreira, a civilian, and lost. Violence immediately erupted between supporters
of the two candidates.

Security Situation: The recent truce between Perreira and Cabral’s forces is holding,
but tensions are high in Bissau, where both sides have military units supported by
 well-organized but poorly-armed militias. Cabral’s forces control the southeast portion of
the country and approximately half of the capital city, while Perreira’s forces control the
northwest. Armed peacekeeping forces are needed to monitor and maintain the truce on
both sides, especially in urban areas where proximity between armed groups is high.
Furthermore, government officials in the US have raised concerns about drug traffickers,
who have taken advantage of the conflict to increase operations in the country.

Humanitarian Situation: Before the conflict, Guinea-Bissau was already one of the
world’s least developed countries, with nearly two-thirds of the population below the
poverty line and a Human Development Index score near the lowest in the world.
Fighting between Cabral and Perreira forces has resulted in the displacement of
approximately three hundred thousand Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) . IDP
camps are under-resourced, with many lacking adequate food and clean water, and there
are credible reports of political violence and human trafficking occurring inside the
camps. The spread of serious diseases like cholera is also a threat if humanitarian aid is
not received quickly.

Recap
You call in your advisors and ask them to present some options. The Secretary-General needs a
proposal before the Security Council next week, and you are not going to disappoint her.

Spreading awareness
Your team submits their proposals ahead of schedule, and you arrange a conference to finalize a
proposal. It’s time to design the mission.

You need a design that the Security Council will pass, which means getting nine votes of fifteen,
including either yea-votes or abstentions from all five permanent members. You also have to
convince the Fifth Committee of the General Assembly to fund this mission. Given the £2
billion in back-contributions that member states currently owe to the UN for peacekeeping
missions, you really cannot make a proposal that costs more than £500 million per year.

Design the mission!

Designing the Mission

Being mindful of your budget, design your proposal for a UN peacekeeping mission in
Guinea-Bissau. In addition to drawing down your budget, your choices will affect the probability
of violence and the extent of the humanitarian crisis thereby impacting the likelihood of Security
Council approval. The probability of violence and the humanitarian crisis must be 50% or lower
to proceed.
Touch or hover over each resource name to reveal a hint on why it may be a good idea to include
or exclude the resource in your mission design. Benefits are diminished when a single resource is
deployed dispropotionately with the others.

Resource Cost (m) Count Total (m)

Food supplies £20 million

Bottled water £15 million

IDP camps £35 million

Medical stations £25 million

Infrastructure £50 million

Military battalions USA £35 million

Portugal £28 million

Pakistan £25 million

Ethiopia £22 million

Senegal £18 million

Benin £18 million

Rwanda £19 million

Drug interdiction teams £10 million

Continue

Tap on here to see stats throughout this simulation

Complicated
 Another one

IR Simulation: Negotiating the Lisbon Protocol

Abstract
This activity, “Negotiating the Lisbon Protocol,” simulates the treaty-making process,
highlighting the complex and often-frustrating aspects of crafting international law. You will
assume the role of the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and lead an international effort to stop climate change in the
face of a startling new study. In this capacity, you will

1. Spread awareness about the new study and its ramifications

2. Set the agenda for the Conference of Parties (COP) meeting on climate change
3. Negotiate at the COP meeting and craft a treaty agreement that is both politically feasible
and efficacious.

Learning Goals
After reading your text and completing this exercise, you will be able to:

● Describe the role of key actors, including non-governmental organizations, states, and the
United Nations, in international treaty negotiations
● Explain why international cooperation is difficult in an anarchical environment
● Identify the core elements of the climate change treaty regime.

Introduction
You are Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, and your assistant, Steffi, has just sent you a link to a
new scientific study. The findings indicate that seawater temperature has been increasing 50% faster
than expected over the last five years. You see this study as motivation for unified international action
on climate change, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing carbon
sequestration efforts. Any successful plan needs the political support of the world’s major carbon
dioxide emitters:

● The United States of America

● Russia
● China
● The European Union

Joint action is difficult in an anarchical international system because each state has an incentive to
free-ride. Luckily, as Executive Secretary of the UNCCC, the UN’s umbrella organization for
international climate change cooperation, you are positioned to overcome this collective action
problem.

With the UNFCCC hosting a major Conference of Parties (COP) meeting in Lisbon in less than a
year, your first step is to read the scientific abstract of the new study so that you understand the scope
of the problem.
danson, Rachel and Clara Schmidt. 2015. “Implications of rapidly increasing
climactic change in North America and Europe: a multi-model approach.”
International Journal of Global Environmental Studies, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 37-61.

ABSTRACT: Using newly-available data from observation buoys in the North Atlantic, as well as
North and Baltic Seas, the authors conduct forecast analyses of climate change outcomes using
multiple leading (and competitive) models. Recent observations show that average sea
temperature in these regions has increased fifty percent faster than expected by nearly all
predictive models. We begin by using the new data to improve these models. Our new forecasting
models indicate, should present rates of increase in greenhouse gas emissions and extant
carbon sequestration efforts remain constant, there is a very strong and statistically
significant likelihood of rapid and severe changes to Atlantic ocean currents (i.e. Gulf Stream
and North Atlantic Draft) that would cause, in the next twenty years, extreme climactic shift
in North America (especially in the northeastern United States and maritime Canadian
provinces) and Western Europe (especially those countries situated on or near the Atlantic,
Baltic, and North Sea coasts). Based on recent studies of the effects of climate on agriculture and
fisheries, there is evidence these shifts could be highly destructive to economic and social systems
in these areas. The authors conclude with a call for concerted international attention to the
associated problems of greenhouse gas emissions and ongoing climate change.

MEMO
To: Executive Secretary Anabel
From: Steffi Rutger

We are in trouble. For the first time, major population centres in Western Europe and the United
States are facing significant destructive effects of climate change in the short term. We think this
opens an opportunity-window for united international action on climate change, such as reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing carbon sequestration efforts. For any plan to be
successful, we will need the political support of all of the world’s major carbon dioxide emitters,
including the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union, which will require swaying
both politicians and the populations that support them. This is particularly difficult in the
anarchical international environment because each state has a natural incentive to free-ride.

Luckily, as the UN’s umbrella organization for international climate change cooperation, the
UNFCCC is uniquely positioned to overcome this collective action problem and encourage
international action on climate change, by (1) working with scientists and public relations
personnel to spread awareness about the new study and its ramifications, (2) setting the agenda
for December’s COP meeting in Lisbon, and (3) coordinating negotiations at the Lisbon summit
to ensure passage of a protocol agreement that can feasibly be ratified by the major players.

If you are successful, we will have a reasonable chance at avoiding the worst impacts of climate
change. If you fail at making the Lisbon Protocol effective, or at making it politically feasible, then
we will have to delay tackling this for another year, and hope that we are not already too late.

Recap
You have a short time to spread awareness about the new problems identified by climate
scientists and convince world leaders to collaborate on a solution.
 If you are successful at making the Lisbon Protocol effective, you will avert the worst impacts of
climate change. If you fail, rising sea water temperature and general heating could threaten the
world’s food supply.

Spreading awareness
You have called a press conference at the headquarters of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), the scientific and political body created by the UNFCCC to monitor
trends in climate change and greenhouse gas emissions in Geneva.

Your immediate task is to prepare a statement that accurately presents the science behind the
Adanson and Schmidt findings and answer questions. Your goal is to generate a sense of urgency
and spread awareness about the impending global environmental crisis.

Preparing a Statement
Drag and drop statements from the list below onto a draft of your planned remarks. Your goal is
to highlight the urgency of the problem to make the scientific information accessible to
decision-makers, particularly skeptics. Your statement must be 10 minutes in length or less and
you must have at least 40% of the IPCC concerned with climate change to continue.

Review the prospective statements for arguments that are most likely to maintain or increase
concern amongst the IPCC. Touch or hover over each argument to reveal a hint on why it may be
a good idea to include or exclude the argument in your final remarks.

Taking Questions from Journalists

Good job! Your statement was effective because it contained several points that positively
influenced climate-change skeptics.

After you finish your remarks, the first hands of the press go up. Take a few questions from
journalists, remembering to balance emotive content with scientific accuracy to win over more
skeptics. Monitor the opinion poll to ensure that 40% of more of the IPCC remain concerned.
Touch or hover over each of your possible responses to reveal a helpful hint about the
consequences of choosing each response.

Question 1 Answers ALL Cs

Secretary , how do we know this most recent study can be trusted? Are we really looking at
apocalypse in the next twenty years?

a) Apocalypse might be overstating it, but yes—these scientists are predicting severe destruction.
b) The study has been reviewed by the scientific community and uses well-respected models. The
results indicate an extreme climactic shift with severe economic and social consequences.
c) Apocalypse, probably not. And, to be sure, there is always uncertainty in scientific forecasting,
especially on something as complex as climate science.

Question 2
Secretary , thank you for taking my question. What can we do to head off these effects?

a) We can work together to negotiate a treaty agreement in which all countries reduce their emissions
and work to sequester existing carbon in the atmosphere.
b) We have the tools necessary. For example, a cap and trade system would reduce carbon
emissions nearly instantaneously, and, countries could seize private land and plant forests to
sequester carbon using eminent domain.
c) Existing solutions, including market-based solutions like cap and trade schemes and subsidizing
renewable energy resources, have worked well in the past, with minimal cost, and even some
evidence of profit!

Question 3
Secretary , is the UNFCCC the right organization to address this issue? Wasn’t the failure of the
Kyoto Protocol evidence that we need someone else to handle climate change?

a) The UNFCCC should be coordinating international activity on climate change because it was
created to do so and has significant experience doing so.
b) The United Nations is the right organization for the job, because only it has the power to supersede
state sovereignty and enforce compliance.
c) The framework-protocol model on which the UNFCCC is based allows us to craft new agreements
and learn from the mistakes of the Kyoto Protocol—without starting from scratch.

Continue

Assessing the Polls

After mingling with journalists for a painful half-hour, you make your escape and find Steffi
waiting for you. Preliminary results from focus groups and web-based news polls are in:

Opinion among historically sceptical decision-makers is significantly more

concerned about climate change. This means your chances for achieving a successful
treaty have increased!

Laying the Groundwork

It is mid-May, and the annual COP meeting is in December. You need to solve as many political
problems as possible in advance of that meeting so that the heads of state have only the hardest
questions left to settle in formal negotiations.
 The UNFCCC hosts a planning session every spring to work out the agenda for the COP meeting.
Your goal is to settle disputes between representatives of key states. Remember, you are pushing
leaders to negotiate a solution both politically feasible and effective at reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, ideally to at least ten percent below levels in 2000, within the next five years.

Setting the Agenda

Drag and drop statements from the list below onto a draft of your summit agenda. Choose
positions on agenda issues that settle disputes between key negotiators in the most feasible
and effective manner. Your goal is an agenda with at least 50% feasibility and effectiveness
although both should be over 75% if you'd like to enjoy long-term success. Touch or hover
over the issue title to reveal a hint on the best option to select for your agenda.

Issue 1 of 5: Cap and Trade Scheme

​ Denmark:

​
the COP meeting should discuss a global, mandatory cap and trade scheme.
​ USA:

​
the COP meeting should not discuss particular mechanisms for reducing emissions.
​ Compromise:

​
the COP meeting should discuss cap and trade schemes without mandating particular mechanism
for reducing emissions.

Summit Agenda
Chose options to find compromise

Publishing the Agenda

After three days in New York, you head back to Switzerland with a finalized agenda for the Lisbon
summit. Within a few days, feedback from the scientific community comes in.

The climatologists at the IPCC in Geneva are “cautiously optimistic” about the scope of the
Lisbon summit’s goals, and major research institutions seem to be in agreement.

Steffi reports that, the scientific community’s views notwithstanding, public opinion is
supportive, with some remaining skepticism.

Coordinating Negotiations
 You’ve spent the last six months trying to build the excitement around this year’s COP meeting.
The Lisbon Summit begins tomorrow morning.

Your task now is to facilitate napkin diplomacy with and among foreign ministers. Like so
much of the UN’s work, your most important negotiating will occur in hallways and Lisbon’s
cafes, between speeches and the high-profile posturing of world leaders. It is here you must
convince leaders to ignore their short-term self-interest, cooperate, and produce a treaty
agreement to solve one of the greatest collective action problems in world history.

Negotiating the Lisbon Protocol

Drag and drop statements from the list below onto a draft of your protocol. Choose the
positions that you will support to assemble a protocol agreement that is both politically
feasible and effective at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and sequestering carbon. Your
goal is a protocol with at least 50% feasibility and effectiveness although both should be over
75% if you'd like to enjoy long-term success. Touch or hover over each statement to reveal a
hint on why it may be a good idea to include or exclude the statement in your final protocol.

Issue 1: Goals examples

​ Netherlands:

​
parties agree to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to 25% below 2000 levels over the next five
years
​ Uganda:

​
parties agree to hold global carbon dioxide emissions increases to 2000 levels over the next five
years.
​ Russia:

​
parties agree to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to 15% below 2000 levels over the next five
years.

Summit Agenda
US options are good mid compromises

Flying Home

After twelve days of negotiating, you return to Bonn exhausted but carrying the world’s next
attempt at meaningful collective action on climate change: the Lisbon Protocol to the UNFCCC.
 You are confident that, over the next few weeks, key countries, including the USA, will ratify the
document, allowing the Lisbon Protocol to enter into force in time to make a real impact on
greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate: Changed?

The Lisbon Protocol entered into force with widespread support, and member states have
complied with their treaty obligations. However, the Protocol called for few meaningful changes
in state behavior, and greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise.

Conclusion
Thank you for playing “Negotiating the Lisbon Protocol.” We hope you have enjoyed the
simulation, but specifically, we hope you now feel more comfortable:

1. Describing the role of key actors, including non-governmental organizations, states, and
the United Nations, in international treaty negotiations
2. Explaining why international cooperation is difficult in an anarchical environment
3. Identifying the core elements of the climate change treaty regime

Option 3
Stopping an epidemic
Abstract
This activity, “Stopping an Epidemic,” simulates the process by which international organizations
coordinate multilateral responses to public health crises. You will assume the role of Regional
Director for Africa for the World Health Organization, tasked with stopping a new
epidemic of hemorrhagic fever in the Central African Republic. In this capacity, you will

1. Raise awareness about the epidemic in the United Nations

2. Coordinate efforts to respond to the epidemic,
3. Work with the World Bank to direct a recovery effort that builds government capacity to
prevent future epidemics

Learning Goals
After reading your text and completing this exercise, you will be able to:

● Describe the roles of and relationships among intergovernmental organizations,

non-governmental organizations (NGO), and states in international public health
efforts
● Identify and explain common obstacles to international collabouration, particularly in a
public health context
● Identify structural limitations to intergovernmental organizations