Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070

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Cleaner Energy Systems

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cles

Investment in photovoltaic energy: An attempt to frame Brazil within the

2030 passage target of the Paris agreement ✩
Ronaldo Ricardo Saccardo a,∗, Ana Mariele Domingues a, Rosane Aparecida Gomes Battistelle a,
Barbara Stolte Bezerra a, Regiane Maximo Siqueira a, João Batista Sarmento dos Santos Neto b
a
Universidade Estadual Paulista, Unesp, Brazil
b
Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, UFMS, Brazil

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Keywords: Energy generated by fossil fuels is the main source of GHG emissions in the world. To mitigate global warming,
Photovoltaic energy Paris Agreement is an initiative that aims to limit global GHG emissions. Substitution of fossil fuels by renewable
Energy efficiency sources is considered a solution to reducing GHG emissions. Solar energy is particularly emphasized due to its
Renewable energy
high availability and low emissions. Although Brazil has excellent conditions for the generation of photovoltaic
Paris agreement
solar energy, its energy matrix is still composed of a large amount of fossil sources. There is a lack of studies
Greenhouse gas
GHG on the change in GHG emissions by replacing these fossil sources with photovoltaic energy and the investment
required for this change. This article aims to investigate GHG emissions of projected energy matrix of Brazil in
2030 and investment needs in photovoltaic energy for replacement of fossil sources, seeking an energy matrix
within the goals Paris Agreement. Projections for substituting fossil fuels with photovoltaic energy in the year
2030 were made and GHG emissions in CO2eq were calculated using the IPCC method for Global Warming
Potential - 100 years. The annual investment was estimated using data on capacity factor of photovoltaic
generation for Brazil and value of installation costs provided by International Renewable Energy Agency. Results
revealed that with the projected substitution of fossil fuels by photovoltaic in matrix energy 2030 emissions
can be reduced by 36,9% (from 0.484GtCO2eq to 0,305GtCO2eq). The investment required for this replacement
is estimated at U$S 376,5 billion. Despite the photovoltaic energy promising type of energy for Brazil, it is
still unfeasible for the country to achieve goals in Paris Agreement (0,187 GtCO2e for 2030). In addition, a
SWOT analysis provides an overview for decision-makers on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of
photovoltaic energy in mitigation climate change context.

1. Introduction climate change) contributed to an increase of 60 Mt of CO2 in 2022

Climate change is considered a growing concern for the human
race and arises as a result of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from
anthropic activities (Al-Ghussain, 2019; IPCC, 2023). GHG emissions
worldwide are mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels to the produc-
tion of energy in the form of electricity, heating or cooling, transport
and industrial processes (Balali et al., 2020; Liu et al., 2022). In 2022,
global energy related CO2 emissions expanded by 0.9%, emitting 36.8
billion tons (International Energy Agency, 2023). Only the energy de-
mand for cooling and heating in extreme climates (a consequence of
(International Energy Agency, 2023).
Many actions, with the objective of mitigating GHG emissions, are
being developed around the world, among them it is possible to mention
in particular the Paris Agreement, which came into force in 2016 with
the objective of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C above
pre-industrial levels, chasing a limit of 1.5°C (Doelman et al., 2019).
This agreement, in order to achieve its main objective of controlling
the global temperature, determines as part of the responsibilities of the
signatory countries, that they formulate their individual contributions,
basing their calculation of reduction in the rate of GHG emissions on the

✩
Present/permanent address: Universidade Estadual Paulista - Unesp, Faculdade de Engenharia - Câmpus de Bauru, Address: Av. Eng. Luiz Edmundo C. Coube
14-01 - Bauru/SP | Brazil - CEP 17033-360. Phone: +55 1431036000. e-mail: spg.feb@unesp.br
∗
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: ronaldo.saccardo@unesp.br (R.R. Saccardo).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cles.2023.100070
Received 14 June 2022; Received in revised form 30 March 2023; Accepted 29 May 2023
Available online 30 May 2023
2772-7831/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al.
pre-industrial level of emissions, that is, the reduction rate agreed upon
in the agreement must be calculated from the total GHG emissions that
were emitted throughout 2005, where right after defining how much the
reduction will be, the countries must register their intentions in a docu-
ment called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (Leinaweaver
& Thomson, 2021).
In order to achieve the goals agreed in the NDCs, many countries
have used the strategy of encouraging the use of renewable sources, thus
making them a central part of the positioning of the energy policy and an
essential element of energy consumption, since their use is directly re-
lated to reducing the use of fossil fuels, thus ensuring a balance between
environmental sustainability and economic growth (Rehman et al.,
2019). This strategy, combined with the fact that many studies and re-
search are being developed around new renewable energy generation
technologies, has led to new energy implications (Lausselet et al., 2020s)
and has made it possible to state that some of these sources can con-
tribute significantly to mitigating anthropogenic climate change (Burke
& Fishel, 2020).
In the global context, investment, development and implementation
of new technologies related to renewable energy are constantly grow-
ing and are led by wind, solar and hydropower (Shahbaz et al., 2020;
International Energy Agency, 2023). Solar energy is particularly empha-
sized because it is widely available and avoids GHG emissions like CO2
and SO2 (Hayat et al., 2019). Solar energy is an inexhaustible source
of energy for the planet, free and non-polluting, with availability, ac-
cessibility, capacity and efficiency reliable (Kannan & Vakeesan, 2016;
Kabir et al., 2018).
Among various ways of using solar energy, the photovoltaic system,
also known as solar cells, has been considered the most promising sys-
tem within the field of renewable energies (Rabaia et al., 2021). In ad-
dition to being non-polluting, this system can be combined to supply
electricity on a commercial scale (centralized generation) or in smaller
configurations for personal use (distributed generation) (IRENA, 2021),
where regardless of its configuration, all its qualities make photovoltaic
energy considered an essential instrument to achieve the goal of the
Paris Agreement (Madsen & Hansen, 2019).
Brazil, as a signatory to the Paris agreement, had its emissions calcu-
lated for the year 2005 at around 2.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equiv-
alent (GtCO2 eq), through the second national inventory (IPEA, 2019)
and proposed in its NDC to reduce GHG emissions by 43% by the
end of 2030, which is equivalent to issuing a total of 1.2 GtCO2e
in the entire year of 2030. To calculate the total GHG emissions,
the metric used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), based on its Fifth Assessment Report, AR5, which uses the 100-
year global warming potential (GWP-100) to calculate GHG emissions
(IPCC, 2018). In addition to this commitment, Brazil also committed
in the same document, to carry out, among other actions, those of
reaching a 45% share of renewable energy and expanding the use of
green energy, except hydroelectric energy, to a percentage between
28% and 33%, increasing the share of wind, biomass and solar energy
(UNFCCC, 2020). Although Brazil reached the target of 45% renew-
able sources in the energy matrix, 55% is still based on non-renewable
sources like oil and natural gas (EPE, 2022). This proportion of non-
renewable sources, combined with expected increased energy consump-
tion, could compromise the achievement of the 43% GHG reduction
target.
Photovoltaic power generation can be a solution to reduce con-
sumption of non-renewable sources and GHG emissions in Brazil. Pho-
tovoltaic energy has a privileged situation in Brazil, as it has one of
the highest insolation rates in the world and consequently a great po-
tential for the development of this type of energy generation, due to
its location in an intertropical region (between the Tropics of Capri-
corn and Cancer), where the incidence of solar rays is almost per-
pendicular and also because it is close to the Equator, where there
are no significant variations in the solar day length (Ferreira et al.,
2018; Dranka & Ferreira, 2018; Garlet et al., 2019). Although photo-
2
Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070
voltaic energy has environmental advantages and Brazil has potential
for photovoltaic energy generation, the sector is incipient in the coun-
try, representing only 2.6% of the national energy matrix (Jesus et al.,
2023). Mainly barriers to progress of photovoltaic energy in Brazil
are a lack of technological and economic incentives and the creation
of specific policies to promote photovoltaic energy (Ottonelli et al.,
2023).
The installation of photovoltaic systems in Brazil has already been
investigated by several studies from different perspectives, including the
investigation of the challenges and opportunities for the growth of solar
energy in Brazil (Carstens & Cunha, 2019), the photovoltaic potential
of a region (Salim et al., 2023), technical-economic analysis for micro-
generation and installation of a photovoltaic solar system (Jesus et al.,
2023), the evaluation of the performance of different photovoltaic tech-
nologies in different climatic conditions in Brazil (Nascimento et al.,
2020), the influence of public policies and COVID-19 in the diffusion of
solar and wind energy (Costa et al., 2022), the estimation of the mar-
ket potential in the domestic grid in Brazil (Jannuzzi & Melo, 2013)
and the status and trends of the implantation of the distributed gener-
ation of photovoltaic energy (Costa et al., 2023). However, the investi-
gation into how the replacement of fossil sources by photovoltaics af-
fects GHG emissions, the investments needed for this replacement and
whether Brazil will be able to achieve the NDC targets are still open.
Therefore, within the perspective of the mitigation of Climate change
and Paris Agreement, this study aims to answer the following research
questions:
• Research Question 1: What total GHG emissions can be avoided in
the projected energy matrix for 2030 in Brazil with all fossil sources
of industrial sectors being replaced by photovoltaic energy?
• Research Question 2: What is the annual investment required to
substitute this energy matrix according proposed in this study?
• Research Question 3: With the replacement, Brazil will be able to
reach the target agreed in the NDC of Paris Agreement of 0.187
GtCO2e for 2030?
This article aims to analyze the GHG emissions of the Brazilian En-
ergy Matrices of 2005 and the Brazilian Energy Matrix projected for
2030 to investigate effects of the replacement of fossil sources by pho-
tovoltaic energy, seeking to verify whether it is possible to meet tar-
gets of the Paris Agreement. In addition, annual investment in pho-
tovoltaic energy for change is investigated. The specific objectives
are:
• To calculate the GHG emissions of the Brazilian Energy Matrices of
2005 and the Brazilian Energy Matrix projected for 2030;
• To calculate the GHG emissions change of replacement fossil sources
in industrial sectors and residences for photovoltaic energy genera-
tion;
• To investigate the annual investment needed for the replacement
proposed.
Photovoltaic solar energy can contribute to the sustainable develop-
ment of countries, especially to the achievement of Sustainable Devel-
opment Goal 7 (Clean and Affordable Energy) (Ottonelli et al., 2023). It
is believed that photovoltaics and other renewable energy sources will
represent an important portion of the future energy mix (Borawski et al.,
2023). However, there are challenges for the implementation of photo-
voltaic energy like a high cost. Photovoltaic energy is expensive com-
pared to other renewable energy sources and compared to traditional
fossil energy (Borawski et al., 2023). This study contributes to the liter-
ature by investigating the amount of GHG emissions that Brazil would
avoid by replacing all fossils in the chosen sectors with photovoltaic en-
ergy and the investment required for these changes, seeking to under-
stand whether the strategy would allow Brazil to achieve its emissions
reduction targets of GHG emissions. In addition, the results of this study
can contribute valuable information for energy policymakers in Brazil
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al.
and other countries in planning changes in the projected energy matrix
for sustainable development goals.
2. Literature review
2.1. Paris agreement
Within the perspective of the Paris Agreement, developed countries
normally have only one NDC, as they do not depend on external sup-
port to reach the goals established in their NDCs (Bel & Teixidó, 2020).
They frame these in terms of absolute emission reduction targets for the
whole economy while developing countries are encouraged to present
their targets in light of their national circumstances, where around 90%
of NDC submissions relate to energy use renewable as climate action
(Kuriakose, et al. 2022)
Morocco, updated its NDC, improving its GHG emissions reduction
ambition, placing a target of 142.35 in its updated NDC, compared
to 170.8 million tons of CO2 in the first submission, whose achieve-
ment is linked to factors linked to the economy; human capital; in-
clusion and solidarity; and territories and sustainability (Kharbach and
Chfadi, 2022)
South Korea presented an improved update of the first NDC at the
end of 2021, proposed a target in the power generation sector of 149.9
million tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, where, to achieve this
target, measures will be adopted such as reducing oil and coal power
generation, expanding renewable energy generation, and introducing
co-flaring of ammonia (Jeong, et al. 2022)
To meet its NDC targets, Ghana has launched several initiatives and
programs in the energy sector, such as the expansion of rail and bus
transport systems, the promotion of energy efficiency programs (e.g. the
adoption of fluorescent lamps and diode lamps) in addition to increas-
ing the generation of renewable electricity (solar energy and large-scale
bioenergy), and in 2019, it introduced the Master Plan for Renewable
Energy (REMP), where several economic and legislative instruments
were implemented (tax reduction; exemption from import tax on mate-
rials/equipment for electricity generation plants, in addition to capacity
building in renewable energy development, and support for research and
development to accelerate the implementation of renewable technolo-
gies (Kuriakose, et al. 2022)
In an overview, analyzing the G20 economies, den Elzen
et al. (2019), concludes that evidence points to China, India, Indone-
sia, Japan, Russia and Turkey being able to meet or exceed their uncon-
ditional NDC targets. China, with its air pollution control policies, has
started to reduce the use of coal and promote the use of clean energy,
along with changes in its industrial economy. Japan intends to reduce
its emissions with its renewable energy tariff policies and the 2014 Ba-
sic Energy Plan, in addition to setting a target for the generation mix
of energy, with 26% coal, 27% gas, 20 to 22% from nuclear energy and
22 to 24% from renewables. Indonesia’s plans include international sup-
port to achieve the NDC’s goals, which are centered on protecting land
cover, land use and forests. Key mitigation-related policies implemented
in India include energy efficiency initiatives in energy-intensive sectors,
renewable energy generation capacity targets, a coal tax and a range
of support schemes set out in the 12th Five Year Plan, boosting gener-
ation. renewable energy to 40%, with the help of technology transfer
and low-cost international financing. Turkey, to comply with its NDC,
has established renewable energy policies. Finally, Russia aims to limit
its emissions by relying primarily on emission reductions centered on
protecting land cover, land use and forests.
In summary, the whole world has been working to change the way
energy is generated, with electrical energy being the main point, where
most of the efforts in this direction culminate and this has caused
the costs of some technologies to drop drastically, which can be men-
tioned as an example, the adoption of electric cars in many countries
(Ketsopoulou, et al. 2021).
3
Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070
2.2. Photovoltaic energy in Brazil
Photovoltaic energy, in the last 20 years, has been gaining more and
more attention. As proof of this, it is possible to verify year after year
a solid and consistent increase in the number of scientific publications
on the subject in the Scopus database. In part, this growth can be cred-
ited to the fact that the topic has aroused the interest of the scientific
community, which made photovoltaic technology commercially viable,
through much research and development (cost reduction and productiv-
ity increase), in addition to the fact that it met the environmental needs
of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
In October 2014, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) be-
gan to encourage its generation, integrating the generation of electricity
from the centralized photovoltaic source to the planning and expansion
of the national electrical system, besides incorporating it to the auctions
for the purchase of electricity promoted by the Federal Government,
and held in the same year, the first auction for the purchase of electric-
ity coming exclusively from photovoltaic generation (Dias et al., 2017).
From 2016 on, in all auctions promoted by the federal government for
contracting the supply of electricity, the modality from the centralized
photovoltaic source has always been present.
In view of the above, and analyzing the Brazilian electricity matrix
(Fig. 1), it was possible to verify that from 2020 to 2021 there was
an increase of more than 50% of participation from the photovoltaic
source in the supply of electricity, going from 1.6% to 2.5%, where in
absolute terms, an increase of more than 60% could be verified in the
offer of electric energy from this modality, jumping from approximately
10,456TWh/year in 2020 to approximately 16,980 TWh/year in 2021,
where, based on this fact, it is possible to conclude that more and more
land areas are being used for the implementation of utility-scale photo-
voltaic plants.
3. Material and methods
Research method is investigative, using literature and national data
from Brazil to estimate the GHG emissions in the Brazilian energy ma-
trix projected for 2030 and annual investment in photovoltaic to substi-
tute fossil fuel sources in selected sectors. Fig. 2 summarizes the general
flowchart of the research method implemented.
3.1. Data collection of energy matrix
To check whether Brazil is on the right track to meet the objectives
proposed in two NDC, the 2005 Brazilian Energy Matrix (EPE, 2006), the
2020 Brazilian Energy Matrix (EPE, 2021b) and the projected Brazilian
Energy Matrix were obtained from the year 2030 (PDE 2030), where the
latter contains, in addition to the projection of energy generation and
consumption, the projection of CO2e emissions for the entire year 2030
(EPE, 2021).
3.2. Calculation of GHG emissions from projected energy matrix 2030
To calculate the GHG emissions for the reshaped projected ma-
trix of the year 2030, the same metric adopted by the Brazilian NDC
was adopted in this study considering both commonly used methods
(bottom-up or top-down method) that are indicated by the IPCC in its
national guide for greenhouse effect gas inventory (IPCC, 2006), the top-
down method was chosen to be used due to its greater reliability and
less complexity for data collection (Camioto & Rebellato, 2014). Accord-
ing to the IPCC manual, to convert national energy matrix consumption
energy data, it must convert energy consumption values of each fuel
(ECV), expressed in the tone of oil equivalent (toe), to the common en-
ergy unit, the terajoule (TJ), multiplying it by the Fuel Calorific Value
(FCV) (table of the IPCC manual) and by the corresponding correction
factor (CF) which is 0.95 for solid and liquid fuels and 0.90 for gaseous
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al.
Fig. 1. Brazilian electrical matrix for 2020 compared to 2021. Adapted from data of EPE (2022).
fuels. After that, it is necessary to transform the fuel consumption ex-
pressed in TJ into carbon content by multiplying the value found by the
carbon emission factor (CEF) (table of the IPCC manual) with the obser-
vation that when the report indicates an item formed by several fuels,
the calorific value of the fuel and the carbon emission factor present in
the IPCC manual will be calculated by the average of all fuels that com-
pose this item and due to the fact that none of the combustion processes
is 100% effective because none of the materials undergoes 100% of ox-
idation, it is necessary to correct the energy consumption values of the
fuel already transformed into carbon content to find the fuel quantity
that will really be transformed into CO2e, multiplying the transformed
consumption content of the fuel by the indexes of 0.98 for coals, 0.99
for petroleum and its products, 0.995 for natural gas, expressed in the
formula by the variable UO. Finally, it must convert the quantity of oxi-
dized carbon into CO2 e emissions, multiplying the quantity of fuel that
will really be oxidized into CO2 e by the molecular weight of carbon diox-
ide, that is, multiplying by 44 and then dividing by the atomic weight of
carbon, which is 12, thus finding the total GHG emissions of each fuel
which finally is summed with the results of every single fuel presenting
in the national energy matrix resulting from the total emissions of GHG
(Eq. 1) (IPCC, 2006).
∑ {[(
) ]
𝐸𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠𝐺𝐻𝐺 = 𝐸𝐶 𝑉𝑓 𝑢𝑒𝑙 ∗ 𝐹 𝐶 𝑉𝑓 𝑢𝑒𝑙 ∗ 𝐶 𝐹𝑓 𝑢𝑒𝑙 ∗ 𝐶𝐸𝐹𝑓 𝑢𝑒𝑙
𝑓 𝑢𝑒𝑙𝑠
( )
} 44
∗ 𝑈 𝑂𝑓 𝑢𝑒𝑙 ∗
12)
3.3. Calculation of annual value investment for replacement fossil supply
with photovoltaic energy
To calculate the annual value of investment in photovoltaic energy,
by modality (centralized and distributed) was necessary to subtract the
total amount of photovoltaic energy consumed in 2020 (EC20), data
available in the 2020 National Energy Matrix and convert the value
found to the standard unit of electricity kilowatt-hour year (kWh/year),
using the conversion table present in the BEN 2006 report guidance
Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070
found in the publication called Solar and Wind Energy 2 (Abdala, 2019),
to find the power required for consumption, it is necessary to divide the
amount of electrical energy expressed in kWh/year by 8760, which is the
total number of hours for a year integer and also divide by 0.2275 which
is the capacity factor (rate of yield that the project shows compared to
the total possible yield rate), as takes into account in its calculation the
global radiation index per m2 and the number of hours of sunlight inci-
dence in a year, where, in Brazil, according to the twelve-month average
bulletin of photovoltaic generation released in January 2022, released
by the National System Operator (ONS), was 22.75% (ONS, 2022). In
possession of the total power required for consumption, a proration is
made between the two forms of solar energy generation that are under
development, according to the proportion found in the PDE 2030, cor-
responding to 40% for centralized generation and 60% for distributed
generation (EPE, 2021), through the variable named TX (modality) at
the same time that the valuation is made in US dollars (USD), multiply-
ing by the corresponding installation cost denominated IC (modality),
which corresponds to the installation cost of each of the modalities of
photovoltaic energy, which followed the values reported by the Interna-
tional Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in its publication called Re-
newable Energy Generation Costs in 2021, which puts it at US$ 710.00
per kW for centralized generation and US$ 982.00 for distributed gener-
ation in 2020 (IRENA, 2021). Finally, to find the total annual investment
in photovoltaic energy to reach the target of the Paris agreement, it is
necessary to add the results of the investment in each type of generation
(1)
(centralized generation and distributed generation) (Eq. 2).
∑ {[ ( )]}
𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 = (𝐶𝐸30 − 𝐶𝐸20)∕ 0, 086 ∗ 109
𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦
( )
∕(8760 ∗ 0, 225) ∗ 𝑇 𝑋𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 ∗ 𝐼𝐶𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (2)
3.4. Sensitivity analysis
To verify the sensitivity of the results, an evaluation of two param-
eters considered sensitive in the literature were evaluated: the price re-
duction (Al-Shahri et al., 2021); and the increase in the efficiency of pho-
4
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al. Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070

Fig. 2. Flowchart of research method with data sources of each phase implemented.

Table 1
Data for mean and standard deviation of prices. Adapted from IRENA (2021).

Year Mean of Standard

Generation type reduction deviation
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (%)

GD 3497 2694 2150 1623 1308 982 -22,40% +/-2,50%

GC - 2151 1583 1242 984 710 -24,14% +/-3,51%

tovoltaic energy (Boretti & Castelletto, 2020). Different scenarios were
evaluated and compared with the initial scenario to verify the change
in the investment value for the implementation of photovoltaic panels
when the price and capacity factor change.
For price variation, cost data for distributed generation and
centralized generation for five years (2016 to 2020) was collected
from the IRENA report (IRENA, 2021). We use this data to calcu-
late the average price markdown and standard deviation. Table 1
summarizes data used for mean and standard deviation calculating of
prices.
For the efficiency rate variation, we used standard deviation values
obtained from the literature as a proxy. Studies that evaluated photo-
voltaic power generation efficiency point out that average capacity fac-
tors can vary widely from 9% to 14% in Australia (Boretti, 2019) or
from 10% to 36% with a mean of 27% and 5% standard deviation in the
USA (Boretti & Castelletto, 2020).

5
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al. Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070

Table 2
Scenarios parameters for sensitivity analysis.

Scenarios GD price variation (%) GD (USD) GC (USD) GC price variation (%) Capacity factor variation (%)

Baseline - 982 710 - 22,75

Scenario 1 - median -22,4 762 539 -24,14 23,89
Scenario 2- optimistic -24,9 737 514 -27,65 27
Scenario 3 - pessimistic -19,9 787 564 -20,63 21,61

For the evaluation of the scenarios, the average price was used as
the average scenario and the standard deviation was used to calculate
the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for each type of generation. For
the capacity factor, data from (Boretti & Castelletto, 2020) was used as
a proxy for the scenarios: a median of 27% for the optimistic scenario
and a standard deviation of 5% for the current capacity factor in Brazil
(22.75% +/- 5%) in the medium (+5%) and pessimistic scenarios (-5%)
to verify the influence of this parameter on the results. Table 2 summa-
rizes parameters assessed in scenarios.
4. Results and discussion
4.1. GHG emissions of energy matrix projected for 2030
Analyzing the Brazilian Energy Matrices for the years 2005 and pro-
jected for 2030, it can be observed that the consumption of renewable
energy was 45%, with a 33% share of all renewable energies, except
hydro, in the total energy consumption, however, despite the fulfill-
ment of the targets mentioned above, an increase in energy consump-
tion was observed from 2020 to 2030, with the consequent increase
in CO2e emissions. Results for projected energy matrix are shown in
Table 3. Total emissions in the energy matrix projected for 2030 is 0.484
GtCO2e.
The substitution projected of fossil products in selected sectors (high-
light in yellow in Table 3) reduces GHG emissions by approximately
0.179 GtCO2e, a reduction of 36,9%. However, same with the proposed
reduction, total planned emissions for 2030 still sit above the proposed
target in Paris agreement NDC of the 0.187 GtCO2e. Consider work of
Pellegrini et al. (2021) which deals with the question of the end of the
use of fossil fuels, where it proposes the establishment of a mechanism
so that no new type of reserve is explored and confronting this with the
work of Ketsopoulou et al. (2021), which deals with the study carried
out by the United Kingdom, which generated six documents indicative
of actions aimed at the Paris Agreement, it is possible to imagine the
possibility of reducing GHG emissions, in industries, in the energy sec-
tor, in homes, in the service sector and in the agriculture and livestock
sector, since these sectors use non-renewable fuels to mainly generate
electricity.
In order to increase the reduction of GHG emissions from the en-
ergy matrix, one of the measures that could be taken is investment in
technology that replaces the use of fossil fuels with renewables in the
transport sector, that is, a trend that has grown a lot, which is the use of
electric vehicles, where using the same approach previously proposed,
a 73% reduction in the use of diesel oil, fuel oil and gasoline would be
necessary.
4.2. Annual investment
The result of annual investment for substituted fossil fuel in selected
sectors by photovoltaic energy is shown in Table 4. The total investment
amount is USD 376,5 billion or USD 47 billion annually for the next 08
years (from 2023 to 2030).
Although the necessary investment is considered high, when the
value is diluted per year it can become viable, especially considering
that in Brazil USD 22.3 billion were invested in fossil fuels in 2021

Table 3
Projected energy matrix for 2030 and GHG emissions.

Product Sector

Transport Industry Energy Sector Residences Services Farming Energetic Non-Energy GHG
Consumption Consumption Emission
(Mtoe) (Mtoe) (Gt CO2e)

Diesel Oil 53293 1208 1493 41 8296 64331 187,3

Fuel Oil 1238 1764 204 25 12 3243 9,4
Gasoline 21097 21097 59
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 1212 7815 797 24 9848 25
Naphtha 0 6651
Kerosene 4676 1 4677 2 13,5
Other Petroleum Products 7762 3407 11169 276 26,2
Non-Energy Petroleum Products 0 7366
Natural Gas 1847 11182 13226 624 259 27138 2941 63,7
Coke Oven Gas 1399 123 1522 1,1
Steam Coal 4094 4094 9,9
Coal 0
Coal Coke 8844 8844 19
Coal Tar 103 103 190 0,1
Wood / Wood Waste 8625 4908 99 3157 16789 14
Charcoal 4358 229 95 11 4693 5,6
Electricity 254 21990 6354 17650 16106 3145 65499 12,7
Other Primary Solid Biomass 17795 17622 35417 15,6
Anhydrou Ethanol Fuel 22000 9 22009 603 15,4
Biodiesels 9108 9108 6,1
Sulphite lyes (black liquor) 0
Other Renewable 45 515 560 0,4
Total 104450 99960 42429 31226 17422 14654 310141 18029 484

Legend: Cells in bold are the product types substututed by photovoltaic energy in selected sectors.

6
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al.
Table 4
Total investment in photovoltaic energy.
toe 73.915.000,00
MWh 859.476.744,19 Generation Type % kWh
(toe / 0,086)
kWh 859.476.744.186,05 Total 100
(MWh x 1.000)
Centralized 40
Distributed 60
Investment total
Legend: Ton of oil eq (toe).
(ICS, 2022). With this, it can be considered that the annual investment
of USD 47 billion in the base scenario could, in part, be achieved with
the transfer of these subsidies and investments from the fossil sector to
the solar one and, on the other hand, with the increase of subsidies and
incentives for solar energy installation. In addition, investments world-
wide in solar technology have increased in recent years, with USD 226
billion and USD 308 billion invested in 2021 and 2022, respectively
(IRENA, 2023). When compared to the investment of the three places
in the world that most invested and added capacity in solar energy in
recent years: China (38% of addition of capacity in solar photovoltaic
generation in 2021), USA (increase 17% in 2021) and European Union
(increase 10% in 2021) (IEA, 2022), investments in renewable energy
alone in 2022 were USD 546 billion, USD 141 billion, and USD 180
billion, respectively (Bloomberg, 2023).
4.3. Sensitivity analysis
The sensitivity analysis is shown in Fig. 3. The variation in the ca-
pacity factor is an important parameter to determine the number of pan-
els and photovoltaic cells needed to replace energy from fossil sources.
The results show that increasing the capacity factor of solar energy can
reduce implementation costs in the medium and optimistic scenarios,
which increases efficiency in relation to the baseline scenario. How-
ever, when efficiency decreases in the pessimistic scenario, the total
investment increases proportionally to the amount of reduced conver-
sion capacity. The price reduction sensitivity presents values lower than
the scenario in all scenarios, presenting the greatest potential for invest-
ment reduction when compared to the increase in efficiency. In addition,
when the two parameters show joint variation, there is also a better per-
formance than the baseline scenario. Therefore, increasing the efficiency
of solar energy conversion and reducing prices together can play an im-
portant role in implantation of photovoltaic energy systems to substitute
fossil fuels.
4.4. SWOT analysis of photovoltaic energy implementation in Brazil
Table 5 provides results of SWOT analysis for photovoltaic energy
in Brazil. SWOT is a tool used for identifying and planning strategic
directions (Phadermrod et al., 2019).
The SWOT analysis of photovoltaic energy for Brazil shows that the
country has a favorable scenario for the implementation of this type of
energy. Firstly, Brazil has a high potential for solar irradiation in all
regions of the country, with average variability during the year, in the
Northeast region reaching extremes of 5.39 and 5.59 kWh/m2 , with 50%
of the average within the range of 5.43 and 5.50 kWh/m2 , while in the
South region, 50% of the averages are within the range of 4.53 and 4.61
kWh/m2 , in the North, within the range of 4.61 and 4.69 kWh/m2 and
in the Southeast region, within the range of 4.97 and 5.11 kWh/m2 in
50% of the years between 2005 and 2015, with extremes of 4.95 and
5.23 kWh/m2 (INPE, 2017).
In addition, because it is considered less aggressive to the environ-
ment, photovoltaic energy has a strong social acceptance. The increase
in photovoltaic energy can also generate significant socio-environmental
Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070
Potency Cost of implantation Investment
USD/kW
859.476.744.186,05 431.269.378,39
343.790.697.674,42 172.507.751,35 710 122.480.503.461,71
515.686.046.511,63 258.761.627,03 982 254.103.917.745,21
376.584.421.206,91
benefits for the country, contributing to sustainable development goals.
In the social sphere, photovoltaic energy has the potential to generate
new opportunities for business models and technology development, job
and income generation, rural populations’ access to energy and socio-
environmental impacts of more invasive infrastructure projects, such
as the construction of new hydroelectric plants. In the environmental
sphere, the use of photovoltaic energy reduces direct GHG emissions
from power generation, as well as indirect emissions related to the trans-
port of fossil fuels or even contamination generated by uncontrolled use
by distant populations.
However, although photovoltaic energy is a promising source of re-
newable energy to reduce GHG emissions from the Brazilian energy ma-
trix, the SWOT analysis also revealed that the country has some weak-
nesses that need to be considered when making a decision about re-
placing the current matrix with a fully photovoltaic one. Among the
main weaknesses, the dependence on technology imports and the lack
of adequate infrastructure stands out, which lead to high initial installa-
tion costs, and can be an impediment for developing or underdeveloped
countries. As a consequence of dependence on imports, the country also
lacks skilled labor for the development, installation and maintenance
of photovoltaic panels (Frate & Brannstrom, 2017; Elgamal & Dema-
jorovic, 2020). Together with the high costs, the lack of adequate pub-
lic incentives and financing policies makes large-scale installation more
difficult, for example, the low-price level offered at auctions (Frate &
Brannstrom, 2017). As it is considered one of the most expensive tech-
nologies, appropriate government incentives are essential for these tech-
nologies to become competitive (Jong et al., 2015). Some technical is-
sues, such as the comparative yield, can make photovoltaic energy less
attractive because as the generation capacity is smaller, a much larger
installed capacity is needed than the current ones based on fossil fuels.
Taking into account that the share of solar energy in the Brazilian energy
matrix is still low (2.5% of the total), the installed capacity needed to
generate the energy needed to meet the country’s total demand would
be very large. However, with the advancement of technology and in-
creased conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cells, the performance of
power generation can increase (Al-Shahri et al., 2021). Also, the sea-
sonal variability can be an impediment to the generation of energy only
by the photovoltaic source. The intermittence of energy generation by
solar sources is one of the main challenges to the implementation of
these systems (Al-Shahri et al., 2021). Brazil has several distinct climatic
regimes, resulting in different climatic conditions between regions; the
wet months have the greatest variability due to the greater number of
clouds in the sky (Luiz et al., 2018). Institutional issues are also consid-
ered weaknesses in the context of Brazil, as there is still a lot of resistance
and interest against the diffusion of photovoltaic energy, such as resis-
tance from distributors or the Lobby of contractors and the coal sector,
which delay the implementation of new public policies (Elgamal & De-
majorovic, 2020). Finally, another weakness of the Brazilian context is
related to the final consumer, there is little public knowledge about the
importance of actions against climate change, photovoltaic energy and
the potential benefits. Investing in developing countries, such as Brazil,
is a challenge and depends on structural changes in the market, legis-
lation and society. Thinking about reducing emissions from the energy
7
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al. Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070

Fig. 3. Sensitivity analysis results for scenarios.

Legend: Sc1-medium; Sc2-pessimistic; Sc3-optmistic.

sector involves price and demand issues, disincentives for fossil fuels,
substitute time and demographic issues (Climate Interactive, 2023).
However, when looking at the external scenario, the implantation
of photovoltaic energy presents many opportunities, such as helping to
achieve climate goals, which can improve the flow of foreign resources
to Brazil or other developing countries, as there are many initiatives
promoting the implementation of energy around the world. The energy
transition requires Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in developing coun-
tries (Shimbar & Ebrahimi, 2020). This external pressure arising from
international agreements and targets can force the government to im-
plement new policies and incentives. In addition, there is a paradigm
shift in consumer behaviour, with responsible consumption being a new
model that guides purchase decisions and can impact individual invest-
ment decisions, companies and industries to meet this new market de-
mand. Finally, the reduction in prices of photovoltaic panels has shown
significant drops each year, which may make the installation of such
technology more viable for less developed countries. The cost of photo-
voltaic cells decrease by three-quarters in the period between 2010 and

8
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al.
Table 5
SWOT analysis of photovoltaic energy in Brazil.
INTERNAL
STRENGTHS
• High potential of solar irradiance in Brazil (Silva et al., 2010;
Echegaray, 2014; Jong et al., 2015; Garlet et al., 2019; Jesus et al.,
2023);
• Reduction of GHG emissions (Jong et al., 2015; Karsten & Stern, 2015;
IEA, 2023).
• Social acceptance (Echegaray, 2014; Frate & Brannstrom, 2017)
• Reduction of use and transportation of fossil fuels (Guanche et al.,
2014)
• Increase of energy access - distant rural populations (Silva et al., 2010;
Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020)
• Generation of jobs and income (Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020)
• Development of new technological poles(Garlet et al., 2019; Elgamal &
Demajorovic, 2020)
• Reduction of negative environmental and social impacts from the
construction of infrastructures such as hydroelectric plants and the
uncontrolled use of fossil fuels (Silva et al., 2010; Elgamal &
Demajorovic, 2020)
EXTERNAL
OPPORTUNITIES
• Climate change mitigation targets (e.g. Paris agreement)
• Promotion of renewable energy sources in worldwide (Barbosa et al.,
2017; IEA, 2023)
• Internacional incentives and investments (Shimbar & Ebrahimi, 2020)
• Responsible consumption - change in consumer behavior
• Cost reduction of photovoltaic components (Barbosa et al., 2017)
2017 (Al-Shahri et al., 2021) and is expected to continue to decrease as
the technology becomes more mature and acquires scale (Barbosa et al.,
2017).
As for the threats, the main one is climate change, because climate
change affects the potential generation of solar energy (Santos & Lu-
cena, 2021) and can make energy generation even more variable in the
future. Climate change can affect solar photovoltaic by changing climate
variables such as global horizontal irradiance, surface wind speed and
surface air temperature (Santos & Lucena, 2021). In addition, with the
increase in global temperatures, there should be an increase in energy
consumption for refrigeration and cooling, which may generate rebound
effects such as pressure on raw materials, degradation of ecosystems,
changes in land use and indirect GHG emissions, as , although the gen-
eration of photovoltaic energy is free of emissions, the production of its
panels is not free of GHG emissions and other environmental impacts, as
they are dependent on metals and large areas for the implementation of
photovoltaic plants (Tawalbeh et al., 2021 ). Financial or global crises
can impact the ability to develop and install technology, as resources
are even more limited for investment.
As noted, replacing fossil sources with renewable options in Brazil
has some advantages and barriers. Photovoltaic energy is a promising
option for countries that have high solar irradiance and can be an al-
ternative to reduce GHG emissions and other environmental impacts, as
well as social benefits and economic development. However, external
dependence on technology and the lack of adequate public policies can
delay the energy transition to renewable options. The shift to a carbon-
9
Cleaner Energy Systems 5 (2023) 100070
WEAKNESSES
• High costs (Echegaray, 2014; Jong et al., 2015; Azevêdo et el., 2017;
Garlet et al., 2019; Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020; Doliveira et al.,
2022)
• Lack of technology and infrastructure for transmission (Frate &
Brannstrom, 2017; Garlet et al., 2019; Ottonelli et al., 2023)
• Lack of subsidies, incentives and financing (Azevêdo et al., 2017; Frate
& Brannstrom, 2017; Garlet et al., 2019; Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020;
Doliveira et al., 2022; Ottonelli et al., 2023)
• Lack public policies (Echegaray, 2014; Jong et al., 2015; Silva et al.,
2016; Garlet et al., 2019; Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020)
• Public awareness on climate change actions
• Time of project installation
• Intermittent energy/Local and seasonal variability(Luiz et al., 2018;
Garlet et al., 2019)
• Lower efficiency - Photovoltaic needs more installed capacity
• Low participation in the current energy matrix
• Resistance of distributors (Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020)
• Lobby with contractors and coal sector (Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020)
• Lack of skilled labor (Frate & Brannstrom, 2017; Elgamal &
Demajorovic, 2020)
• Lack of knowledge of the consumer market and society about
technology and its benefits (Echegaray, 2014; Frate &
Brannstrom, 2017; Garlet et al., 2019; Elgamal & Demajorovic, 2020)
• High land requirements with high cost of implantation (Frate &
Brannstrom, 2017)
• Low price level offered by solar auctions (Frate & Brannstrom, 2017)
THREATS
• Climate change effects in potential generation of solar energy (Santos &
Lucena, 2021)
• Financial crisis
• Environmental impacts of photovltaic panels production
(Tawalbeh et al., 2021)
• Increased energy consumption due to climate change
• Pressures on critical raw materials
• Ecosystem security - degradation of areas for the implementation of
photovoltaic plants
neutral energy system depends on more effective actions in all spheres
of action.
On the one hand, much has been done in the development of new
technologies, often dependent on critical raw materials and highly pol-
luting when extracted, and in increasing the energy efficiency of energy
systems. However, little attention has been paid to measures to reduce
energy consumption. Despite the growing proportion of renewable en-
ergies in energy mixes, consumption of fossil fuels has grown over the
last 40 years, which shows a trend of addition rather than a complete
energy transition (Lazaro et al., 2022). Investing in developing coun-
tries like Brazil is a challenge and depends on structural changes in the
market, legislation and society.
5. Conclusion
The effects in GHG emissions and total investment by the substitu-
tion of fossil fuels by photovoltaic in energy matrix projected for 2030
in Brazil were analyzed in this study. The substitution of fossil fuel
products in selected sector reduces GHG emissions in 36,9%. This result
points the main Brazilian goal registered in its NDC of Paris agreement,
of reducing GHG emissions by 43% of the amount emitted in 2005, will
not be met in 2030 because by increasing its energy consumption, it
is also expanding GHG emissions since it keeps the percentage of fossil
fuel consumption practically constant.
In an attempt to reverse this situation, this article worked on the en-
ergy consumption of the Brazilian national energy matrix, using photo-
R.R. Saccardo, A.M. Domingues, R.A.G. Battistelle et al.
voltaics as a tool to frame it within the NDC objective and substitute the
use of non-renewable fuels in selected sectors. The annual investment
for projected substitution of fossil fuels by photovoltaic is calculated at
USD 47 billion by year (from 2023 to 2030). Although the necessary
investment is considered high, the value can become viable considering
transfer of subsidies of fossil sector to photovoltaic and new investments
lines.
An attempt to frame the projected 2030 matrix within the emissions
target would be to reduce the use of fossil fuels within the transport
sector, but to achieve such a reduction, a very large effort would be
necessary, not only from the private sector, but also from the govern-
ment, encouraging the substitution of the entire Brazilian vehicle force,
for the use of electric vehicles.
As a suggestion for future research, it would be important to expand
the scope of this research, expanding it to another type of renewable
energy, such as wind, biomass, or mixing it with photovoltaic energy,
since Brazil has a vast territory and there are many locations that can
be used to install this type of power generation, locations that can be
used alone or in a hybrid way (with photovoltaic generation) to share
the total need for altered electricity resulting from the reformulation of
the Brazilian Energy Matrix. It would also be very important to place the
growth projection in the use of electric vehicles, estimating the compo-
sition of their fleet in 2030, in order to verify how the national energy
matrix will behave.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
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