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    MFCS Unit3 Part1

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    sirishaksnlp

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 18
    ‘coptance probability 0.05 in the ea alu wutside the range 0.4 to fn ity of a Type Th error, B)x = 0.50 1 0.980Vn, 6 Be Ne = hes Then from (3) and (4), n = 318.98: Te follows that the simple size must be at least 319, i.e,, we coin at least 319 times, Putting n= 319 in (3) oF (4), ¢ = (77, Fore = 05, x—np = 17) — 139.5 = 17.5. Th (2) Accept the hypothesis p = between 142 and 177. oF (4)x = 0.6n ~ 0.806 Vin. herefore, we adopt the following decision rate: 015 if the number of heads in 319 ‘osses is.in the range 159'5 = 17.5) ie, &) Reject the hypothesis otherwise, Quatity control charts 7.29. A machine is Constructed to produce ball bearings hav ing a inenn diam, ter of 0.574 inch and a standard deviation of 0.008 ineh, To determine whether the m chine i in proper working onder 4 sample of 6 ball bearings i n-every 2 hours and the meun diameter ig Computed from this sample, (a) Design a deci. sion tule whereby one can be fiirly certain tht the quality of the produces ig Conforming to required stan. dards, {b) Show how to represent seiphically the decision rule in (a), ; (a) With 99.73% confidence we'can say that the Sunple tean X must tie in the FANE (ag = 3655 10 He + Beorin — JufVapto(u + Sofa). Since p 0.574, 0 — ong and a i 6.1 follows thar with 99.75% confilence the sample mewn should le hetwoun 10.574 ~ 0.024 /4/6) ana (0.574 + 0.004/ 6) or between 1,564 and 0,584 inches Hence, our decision rule is as follows; BOs samp cas Gls nae eT Sati OSB ies acm the machine isin proper Working order, ‘ (2) Otherwise conclude that the machine is not in prope Working ond and a tit: e e means can be kept by Means OF a chart such 8 shown in Big, 74 an ; A recon of the sample means can be kept by : a {b) oat har xe time a sample mens is computed, its repreyened by sit Aston m i nthe lower limit 0,564 inch and pret fimit 0.984 ined, the ploeess iv unar como i i aii uf these eontrol lignite (such as in the i amp ake on Thay rer ing i and inyestigation is warrant a a ea eee nese 138 sin, ry ines cr ae nits, such us Y9% oF 95% LINES, CW he dererini h i Well as the ex, "ed in Problem 7,43 Pected (thedretic, ily staph pace wo dower wea 73. Lo imated by # normal distritation cgince fegececy Snuniaton cuit een Tick ctr hr Pepa aa eo er aeietal mene Diumbirics crm: Hines the Clascress . ctrmincs b Srnec RAMEE ITE er, hore fs. Camilative Relative Frequency (%) Less than Less than Less than| Less than ve frequency (%4) Meight Fig. 7-13 732 132. Fit anormal curve to the data of Table 5-2, page 161. F = 67.45 inches, 2.92 inehes Te work may be organized as in Table 7-7. In calculating < for the ¢lass boundar thie the mean ¥ and standard deviations s have been ohiaivce! sespectively in Peat: BAe ame SMe Tuble 7-7 texpectett Frequency Acca under Normal Curve from 0102 Area for Kueh Class z for Cl Boundaries hiker + 20,6808 2 A892 OF 27,7 Lor 28 “0.4067 VASS 0.2486 | vas 0.1400 OANTT 04920 2.72 170 O67 036 439 241 uma, the areas under the normal curve frei 0 to 2 have been his we find the areas under the normal curve Detwee fourth column when the COMespx by subtracting the successive areas ia the fourth Number of | | Accidents (x) 1 18 2 7 3 3 4 1 TOTAL 30 The mean number of accidents is zh Sr + (3) + (D4) a as = 5 - 0-90 Then, aevonling 1 the Poisson disiribution, Pox accidents as obtained from this Poisson cidents take place (obtained by arison, the fourth column giving the 3, and + accidents isted the prohabilities for 0. 1.2 {fas the theoretical number of days durin sive probabilities by 30). For convenience of ‘of days has been repeated. which Table 7-9 Actual Number of Days pected Number 20.33 or 20 0.1647 0.0494 oot the fit of the Poisson distribution (o the data is good. i? = A, Computation of the variance -a true Poisson distribution, re istration gup 0.90 For A, which cam be faken asf Its are probaly s ‘ Re aee hpi sets aso, sce Method! 10 MeP eave isney! = 450), Fhetable in Appendix tf sawws 0.025 < P< 0.05, By Pe R039, FAS. Work Problem 734 ‘ysing Yates’ correction. % (ix = = Ap] =05)" (125 —np,| - Os? aes) =e _ (nS = 100} - 6:52 (185 —T : The comected P yajve is 0.04 Since 4.205 > 3.84 and 4205 <.6.63, the conelusions ari ed at in Problem 7.34 are valid, Kora Rompacison sith previous methods, see Methid 2 of Problem 7.36 786. Work Probie 7.34 by using the normal approximation tothe binomial distribution, Under the hypothesis that the coin is fai, the mean and Standard deviation of the number of heads in 200 tosses af acoin are 4 = ap = (20005) = 10) ade = Viipg = Vi20003V03) = 7.07, Method 1 115 heads in standardunite = (5 — 100)/7.07 = 2,12, Using 4 0.05 significance level and a two-tailed rest, we Would reject the hypothesis th Sees ae ee ~ per. yore outside the interval ~ 1.96 t0 1.96. With «0.01 level ths ae PON a neaan es oe = 2.58. It follows as in Problem 7.4 that wo-can reject the hypohesis wa 0.05 Jey) bat cannot reject as a level, The P value of the test is 0.034, ! Note that the square of the above standard score, (2.12) = 4.50, ia the seine ax the vale of ys Problem 7.34, This is always the case for chissquare test involYing two eau 807s, See Prolog, obtained in 7.60. Method 2 Using the correction for continuity, 115 or mare heads is equivalent so 114 5 OF more heads. Then | 145 in Standard units = (114.5 ~ 100)/7.07 = 2.08 This lads (athe Sime Cclasions niin the fey ‘method, The corrected P vale is 0.04 ; Note that the square of this standard seore is (2.05) = 4 20, agreeing With the vine of ye eoreeal tue continuity using Yates’ correction of Problem 7.35, This alwys the =e Siesta AStinvolving tw categories in which Yates’ correction is applicd, gain in consequence af Problem 7.69, Table 7-10 shows the observed and expected frequencies i Bee me Test the F sis that the die is fair, using a significance teve! of 0.05. ( > test. hypothe. ae ae 7.37. 4,83, we reject the hypothesis ce ne ‘ ¢ cannot reject the Abii salt are jr fair. Fora ved res pivhably 8 ete ciel used, see Method TOF _ ; are, HED The Pyne jx Phy? = 4.50), The table Append # snows 0.025 < P< 0.058 S @ FSS. Work Prublem 7.34 using Yutes' correction A (x = 1 = np, - 0. (js — apy) = 0.5)" teamed = = ise (is 00 sy HS = 100] — 0 sy = (Hes) (14,5y =a 4 i: 10) 100 100 100 ‘The corrected ? vuluc is 0.04 Since 4.205 > 3,84 and 4.205 < 6.63, the conclusions arrived ut in Problems 7.34 are valid, For a ‘comparison with previous methods, see Method 2 of Problem 7.36, 7.36. Work Problem 7,34 by using the normal appr uation to the binomial distribution, Under the hypothesis that the-coin is fur, the miean and standard deviati eviation of the number af heads in 200 tos: of acoin are y = ny = (200/05) = 100nd ¢ = Ving = VROOKTSKOS) = 7.07, * Method 1 P15 heads in stunchwd unite = (115 ~ 100)/7,07 = 2.12, Using 20.95 sigifeane lee and twee, ne vou jet he hypothesis te the eon ig facie « sere mere outside the ineral 1 9610196, Wiha feel he orespoadig ie would te ee 2 2.58, follows ms Probie 7.4 that we ca tho hypathes a9 0.05 x6 bat cannot jae jo nat Jevel. The P value of the testis 0.034, =] . Note that the square of the above standad swore, (2.12)! = 4.50, is the same as the lve of x? ota Problein 7.34, This is always the case for a chisiuate West involving tWo categories, S Pelle ce Problem 7.69, ened? yeads is equivalent (0 114.5 oF surieel continuity, 115 or mare heads is eqs 9 OF Mare hevels. Then 114.5 aie ‘ats Sn = Hearts mn Sab i St method. The. s r hs fads wo the sane COU LUNiOns a6 nthe fr dP value is 0.08. fl : Ls “Ora that he squae of isstaniseie (28) Cena ns ‘value of ® continuity using Yates’ cortection ‘of Problem 7.35. This chinsgy i ‘of Problem 7.60, in whic ; ion i applied again jn wonsequens ae categorigs in which Yates correct ae ie 7.37, Table 7-10 shows the observed and sa ae eS atl i sis that the dic is fair, using & significance Ie hypothe. f [ sormected for involving ve pc aa cael 5 > Uy — py (ty — mp? (ey — py? , Oa —_ pad ‘s 5 et a ip, | me «t 5-20 (7 = 2? , (1S = 207, 23 — 20)? | (2A — 20, (16 — 207 —— °° =a t = tm * 3 *. @% Since the number of categories or classes (faces 1,2, 3,4, 5, 6) isk =6,y =k-1=6—1=5, The critical value y295 for 5 degrees of freedom is 11.1."Then since 5.00 < 11.1, we cannotte ‘hypothesis that the dic is fair. ForS degrees of freedom xjos = 1.15, so that x? = 5.00 > 1.1 exceptionally good that we would look upon it with suspicion. . It follows that the agreemeat is (b) The P value nf the test is P(y? = 5.00). The table in Appendix E shows 0.25 < P < 0.5. By computer Software, P =,0.42. &8. A cindom number table of 250 digits had the distribution of the digits 0, 1 . 9 shown in Table 711. fa) Does the observed distribution differ significantly from the expected distribution? (b) What is the P waluc of the observation? ‘a Table 7-11 Digit oof a 2/3 | 4/5 6 | 7 s | 9 Observed Frequency Hee 31 | 29 | 18 | 14 | 20 | 351 30 | 20 | 36 Expected - Frequency | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25°] 25 | 25 — 25" Gi -2s57" Qy- 257 | (18 — 25% _ cS a ae +e ~ 21.7. Hence we tion differs significantly from the expected distribution at the 0.01 level fore upon the table, yellow, 108 round and green, 101 wrinkled F heredity the numbers should be in the 01, (b) 0.05 level of significance? of pea is 315.1 108 4 4 S434 iA tetas sats of a very large number of marbles of fo cee je of 12 marbles drawn at random from the urn revea ‘le Testhe hypothesis that the urn contains equal proportions of the diff ‘te Pvalue ‘of the sample results. © gases the bypathesis thal the urn contains equal proportions of the ditferenily e [oper ofeach kind in a sample of 12 marbles Since these cxpected numbers are less than 5. the chi-square approximation will he inert To “pe combine categories so that the expected number in cach category i at least 5. fe wish to reject the hypothesis, we should combine categories in such a way that the eid “ge hypothesis shoyis up best. This is achicved in our case by considering the categories “ted or ge Sarage or yellow” for which the sample revealed ¥ and 9 marbles, respectively. Since the expected Teach category under the hypothesis of equal proportions is 6, we have 7 ory =2 —1 = 1, xf,, = 3.84. Therefore. we cannot reject the hypothesis at the 0.05 level of (Gibough we can a the 0,10 level). Conceivably the observed results could arise on the basis af (Miesequal proportions ¢f the colors are present. The P value is P(x = 3) = 0.083. ' Avother method “_—~ ‘Baing Yates: correction, we find ceo] St Ost | OF oat since Yates’ correction Jes pre too small, WE #o the saine conclusion given above. This is of course to be expected, peices the value of y?. Here the P value is PO? = 2.1) = 0.15 d be noted that if the y? approximation is uscd despite the fact that the frequene! yy 4-3 (= 3¥ 333 +7 as above, UnetuntelE advisable to £9 ae et probability methods involving the multinomial disttbUHO®- a a. $9F pair of dice, 74 sevens” and 24 “elevens” are observed. USE is thatthe dice are fair, and find the P value of the in 2 ways =4— = $= 1 = 3, xing = 7.81, we would arrive at te same canclese™ fo aio® for small frequencies is poor; hence when it is not 36 ways. A seven can occur in 6 ways, an clever we the hasis of the eomectid Y" We-eanild nat reject the hypothesis at the 0,05 level. : Tor large sampics sich awe have here, ‘results slag Yates" correction prove to be more reliable wted Fe However, sineo even the corrected vale Of Y? lies $4 lose to the critical value, we are ‘Desitamt aboat making decisions one Way or the other, liv sich cases i( is portaps best to increase the: ‘Swe Hy thing more obseevations if we are interested especially in the 0.05 Jevel. Otherwise, we could reject the Aypothosisat some thor level (sveh a0.10), BEA Sprvey of 320 tarnitos wit-S vhildron cach revealed the distituition oF boys and gitls shown in Tabs 712. (a) isthe result consist with the hypothesis that male and female hire are cqually probable? #5) What is the Presine-cf the sample resulis? a ma Table 7-12 Nember of Shoys | Hhoys | 3boys | 2hoys | thoy | Ohoys Bows sedis | Osis | igi | 2girts | 4 girls | 4 nis |S giris TOTAL ‘Number of . : it 18 6 110 88 40 8 | 320 Letp = probability of a mele birth, and g = Probabilities of ( boys), 4 boys and | gir ~— P= probability of a female birth, Then the » G girls) are given by the terms in the binontial expansion (B+ GF =P + Sota + l0p'g? + 1Op'g? + Spat + gi of P(2 boys and 3 girls) = w() (: =# PC boy anil 4 girls) = (4) = i\s PO boys and 5 gies) = (7) = iil boys are obtained, respostively, by , 100, 50, 10. Fence, = sor = oye Fy, & to) = 20 reject the ults are , | Res tate say ae Howe Avie Ott tee The Pale is My? > FAS) = 0.11, 784. Determine thew oxlitess OP HU of the data in Probid 4A U8 — 20,68)" : wos * sstimating the ion oF the nyemtal distil Xiss = 5.99. Therefore, ws Conclude that the fit af the Fort: = 2. hoy = 0:103, Ther, Since 4? = 0.959 > 0.103, the The P values Pty? = 0.939) = 9.69, Contingency tables 7.45. Work Problem 7.13 by using the chi-square test. = The conditions of the problem are presented in Table 7-13, Urder the aull hypothesis M, that the serum has ne effect, we woud expect 70 people in each of the yroups wo eeaver and 30 in each group not to recover, as indicated in Table 7-14. Nore that H, is eqtivalont ta the the serum, i, the classifieations.are independent, Table 713 Frequencies Observed Do Not Recover Recover | TOTAL Group A 8 25 100 fusing serum) Group 8 ma * be (nor using serum) TOTAL, 140 60 200 Group A using sera) Grip (uot using seit? Ffrecekom, consider Table 7-15, which ig, of degrees of freedom, con: my rene © ot I is clear that we have the freedom of plac , once this is done the numbers in the remaining cells are ya nd ah ‘Therefore, there is | degree of freedom. Table 7-15 Do Not Recover Recover TOTAL — Group A Group B f= TOTAL 140 | 60 200 | Sime Yi = $84 for I cegree of freedom, and since y? = 2.38 < 3.84, we conclude thatthe resilsay He AeeeiFows at = T.GS level. We are therefore unable to reject H, at this level, and we conclude either tate Se HP eTHcive ox else withhold decision pending further tests. The P value of the observed frequeases Pig = 238) = 0.12. Bestia’ = 238s the square oF the 2 score, z = 1.54, obtained in Problem 7,13, In genorah the di GL meting sample proportions in a2 x 2 contingency table is equivalent to a test of significanesot BESS Hh proportions using the normal approximation as on page 217 Now ato mat the P value 6.12 here is twice the P value 0.0618 in Problem 7.13. In general a one-tailed test weg cquivaiem toa two-tailed test using X since, forexample, y? > y2, os Corresponds toy > aes OF BS “Mew Smeefor 2 x 2 rabies y is the = Square of the < score, y is the same as z for this case. Therefore.@ Pee trpotiens tthe 0.65 level using x2 ms dati: is equivalent to a rejection in a two-tailed test at the 0.10 = 7M Wok Pres 745 by using Yates correction, (75 — 70) -95) . Sg S05 G25 ~ 30) 05: (135 = 30] — 0.5 70 a a ee Lf Dia 29 An Problem 7.45 are valid, This ci : the valve of x3 ang fgeci THis Could have been realized at once by noting 2 ce Ml increases the P value. vat. ie “roa = ee pemved and failed by’ theee instructors: Mr. X. Mr Y. PRPORINS OF students fuled by the thee instructors are eqtial. “would have failed 27/180 mdr Hf, 206 abrown iw Toe PAZ, the number of degrees of freedom, consid shat only totals are shown. It is clear that we have the free # ifthe firstcolumn and one number into an empty cell ofthe ning cells will be uni eae Ee ccining cel: ill be uniquely determined from the indi fest reso in this case. “a7 Table 7-18 Mr. X MrY Mr. Z TOTAL, Passed | 153 Failed | ca i TOTAL 55 6 64 180 ze, however, that SINCE Ngo = 461, We eam hance in 10 of being wrong. The P value ofthe 99, we cannot reject Hy at the 0,05 level. No Smee xivs isk of I tp atthe 0.10 level if we arc willing to take the r Gserved frequencies is P(x? = 4.84) = 0.089. Tk Show that for an kX k contingency table (h > 1,k > We - 1). Theeemeh + & ~ | independent totals of the hk ente ie k=) =O 1p the number of degrees oF resin es SS ies. It follows tha the nimber of dees of freedom is sea in obiaining theoretical frequencies ae Ps teguired. The sosuit holds if the population parameters ne Inows:ctherwise adjusiment is nceded us described in (>) PHB 1 2% 2 contingency table, Show # mabe a:b = tie we 220. \ hat Tile 7-19 represents « gencra ‘table 7-19 Results Observed nm fay + bin, +04) _ by = by a * Rey th i a “oth ahh ay a m > Maibs = aby _ _ nd? Taig Minit + dy lt fay + by + bys ity = + yay = dy * Diem = Oy Fy whore S = 6,b, — ays). = 0, Hates” comccnion is applica, (J) isseplaced by a(jAl — tu)? Fesmeewd) = aA dt of Probleni 7.49 for ihe data ot Prohlem 7.45, WS, Bh; O5.h 35.4, 140m, G0, NOK 10, nda — 20 7.49 gives (a5Kone NOM 5 ay 2O|CISW IS) — (SNE CAN) GOTOOITODY we a 1) Prato 7.46; ~ 1008 es 193, r si are perfecly dependent or associated | salve of ‘when the two wlasifieaions are pe soci Pees cect will reenver ani all those Who do'wot take the serum will not re ss as in Table 7-21. ‘Table 7-21 Do Not Recover | Recover | TOTAL Group 4 F (using serum) ee ) \ 0 wo | i | (not using serum) | TOTAL 100 | 100 200, Since the expected cell frequencies, assuming cv ae (100 — 50% (0 ~ sy: oat Kite independence, are all equal to 50. SOP (100 — 50) 200 Then the maximum value of Cis Ve 7G + 0) = W200) 00 4 general, for perfect dependence in a contixzency table where © alto 4, the only nonzens'eel) frequencies occur in the diag cases, Cy, = Vik — 1/k. 200) = 0.7071 the numbers af rows. and columins Foi upper left to | are both {Wer right, Far such Miscellaneous problems 7.54, An instructor gives a short quiz involving 10 inie-false questions. Ty test the hypothe: is guessing, the following decision sue is adopted (0 1€7 or more are camer eee th (ii) if fewer than 7 are correct, the sludent is guessing. Find the pro when if is correct, tl at the student tthe student is not Buessing bility of rejecting the hypothesi sis Let p = probability that a question is answered correctly, The probability of getting x questions out of 10 correct is W,7°4 , Whore . q=1- ‘Then under the hypothesis p = 0.5 (ic. the strident is guessing), P: PT comrect) + POS correct) + POY correct) + POO! ; fhryny tVfi\ ay Hl) el NE) + 08) erin: re, the probability of concluding thatthe stident is not guessing when in fate —QLITIY. Nove that this isthe probability ofa Type Ferro, hei “3S, inPooblem 7.54 find the probably of accepting the hypothesis p = Under the hypothesis = 107, PUless than ? aiid) = f 0.5 when sett pg PAT or more correct) 1 CHO. + C\0.7710.3)? + C,00.7)40.3) Sh. Ih Problem 7.54, find the Mp = 08 Ce) = tap CO = 24 probability of accepting the hypothesis P= 0.5 when aet Shp = 0.4, (0) p= 03,(F)p = 0.2, (2) p = 01 6, the required probability is given by tually (2) p< FMPT comet) AS concer) | PE eurreet) | PLO. corree!)} = 1 (eCs0.6)70.49) + WCMOGMOAY + 9€\(0.6)"0.4) + 10©9(0.6)!") = 0.618 HE rosa For). (6)... (Cae simititly fume and Ssrsyporsing 7 = 017 found in Problent 7.58. Note thatthe prot ‘Stror). We have also ineluded the entry f «licatel in Table 7-22 together With he Vahe ility is denoted by B (probability of a Type orp ~ 05 given bY 6 = 1 — 0.1719 = 0.828 from Problem 7.54 Table 7.22 |e | | oF | 09 [os os | 06 | 07 [ 08 | 09 ] B | 1000 | 0999 | dso’ [ os | ose | oo 9.350 [0.121 | 013 | 257. Use Problem 7.56 to construct the raph oF B'vs. p, Problem 7.54 the operating characteristic curve of the decision mle i eraph is shown Fig, 7:14 Nove the similetixy withthe Oc aurve of Problem 7.27. oF the decision: pr the power eure st we had pled Oe dein Hie oer ‘The graph iudiew ‘col ta is worse © He evel that the cot ecen the Hypoteses MP ‘we can tect Hy at 2 0.05 but mot a 040 "a : a og geen ter |e See 8 Beats) 2{&) = 0.2188, we cannot reject Hy at 2 level of AUR or OE sy Sota cheque st TE only two categories is equivalent to the significance sews page 218). the population proportion, and is the total frequency, weeam by definition, Observed Freq Expected Frequency | np | nll p) =e a ++ X, have a multinomial distribution, with expected frequencies apy, Po oe ner? Yu. Foe... ¥y be mutually independent, Poisson-distributed variables, with parameters PA, = op, = np,, respectively. Prove that the conditional distribution of the Y's given that 5 ¥, + ¥, +h aa aed {he multinomial distribution of the X's the, FO Pbabslity section of the Y's, we have hy A= 1, ie ee eee eee ich is just the multmomial distibuiion ‘of the X'S Leompare (16), page 112). 7a UWsoithe result oF Problem 7.64 to show thar 8 us defined by (21), pug Gistribaied, 10-220, is approximately chi-square AS 8 Sanits. St) is difficult to deai with because the maitinoially. distributed X’s are dependent; in view of SSS sesifiction (22), However, Problem 7.6} shows that we can replace the X's by the independent, Poisson Seared PSI givemithat | Y, bo: 1%, = n. Therefore, we rewrite (2) as ” Asin =, all the A's oppreich 2, and! the ventral limit theocsh) for the Poisson distribution {( (4), page 112] Prt Ae + Ze ‘independesn norma! variabics having mean 0 and variance | whose distibution is-conditional + VEZ += VIZ =0 oF Voz, + Vp ly to + NZ, = 0 val tins, oo ‘Len us denate by Ftc ‘Then what we want to prove in ) WIZ + Zi4-- + UT Mahe th 4 0 2 bo + Viel * + Viel

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