Problems: Introduction to Probability - Statistics I.

2021-22 academic year

Prof. Dr. Juan Manuel Menéndez

1. Consider the events A and B be such that P (A) = 1/4, P (B / A) = 1/2, and P (A / B)
= 1/4. Determine whether the following relationships are true or not:

1) A is included in B.

2) A and B are independent.

3) A and B are incompatible (Mutually exclusive)

4) P (A´ / B´) = 1/2

5) P (A / B) + P (A´ / B´) = 1

2. If A and B are two independent events, demonstrate if the following events also are
independent.

a) A and B'.

b) A' and B.

c) A' and B'.

2. A bank reviews its credit card policy to cancel some of them. In the past, 5% of card
customers have become delinquent; they have stopped paying without the bank being
able to recover the debt. The bank has also verified that the probability that a normal
customer is late in payment is 0.2. The probability that a delinquent customer is late on
a payment is 1.

It asks:

a) What is the probability that the customer will fall behind on a monthly payment?

b) If a customer is late on a monthly payment, calculate the customer's probability of

default.
c) The bank would like to cancel a customer's credit line if the probability that the
customer ends up becoming delinquent is greater than 0.25. Based on the results
above, should you cancel a line if a customer is late on a payment? Why?

4. A bank has estimated, from previous experiences, that the probability that a person
will default on a personal loan is 0.3. It has also been estimated that 40% of loans not
paid on time have been made to finance vacation trips, and 60% of loans paid on time
have been made to finance vacation trips. It is requested:

a) The probability that a loan made to finance vacation travel will not be paid on time.

b) The probability that if the loan is made for purposes other than vacation travel, it will
be paid on time.

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