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The future of the pediatric workforce has been the subject of significant abstract
dialogue in the pediatric community and generated much discussion in the
academic literature. There are significant concerns regarding the ability of
pediatricians to meet the growing demands of our pediatric population. Over
the past 5 years, there has been a decline in the percentage of doctor of
osteopathic medicine students who pursue a career in pediatrics but an equally
important increase in the number of pediatric positions that are filled by doctor
of osteopathic medicine students and international medical graduates. Although
there has been an increase in the number of pediatric positions offered in the
National Resident Matching Program, the last 4 years have seen a significant
increase in the number of unfilled pediatric positions. A number of pediatric
subspecialties struggle to fill their training positions, and those with low match
rates may have 20% to 40% fewer applicants than positions. The pediatric
vision for the future must include a commitment to a comprehensive strategic
planning process with the many organizations involved across the multiple
stages of the educational continuum. It is time to elucidate and address the
questions raised by the workforce data. Developing solutions to these questions
will require a careful planning process and a thoughtful analysis of the pediatric
workforce data. Establishing this as an important priority will require a major
collaborative effort between pediatric academic and professional organizations, Department of Pediatrics, Boston Medical Center and
but the future benefit to the nation’s children will be significant. Boston University School of Medicine,, Boston,
Massachusetts
children.1,2 A key component of the year 2032, there will be major FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE: The author has indicated he
has no financial relationships relevant to this article to
future of pediatric care will be the workforce shortages in the primary disclose.
development of a workforce that is care disciplines as well as in many
responsive to the changing landscape specialty disciplines.3 Functional
of our communities while remaining shortages in the pediatric workforce To cite: Vinci RJ. The Pediatric Workforce: Recent
Data Trends, Questions, and Challenges for the
focused on the goal of providing have been described by the Future. Pediatrics. 2021;147(6):e2020013292
comprehensive and high-quality Children’s Hospital Association in
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the ABP by their subspecialty Data obtained from the AAMC reveal continued to fill the majority of
fellowship training program a decline in the percentage of these additional positions in the
directors.28 graduates of MD-granting medical Match.
schools pursuing pediatric training.
To understand trends in the career In 2010, 9.7% of graduating US MD The number of pediatric positions
trajectory of graduates of MD medical students entered residency that have been filled by DO medical
medical schools, the AAMC provided training in pediatrics, but with the students as well as US and non-US
an annual summary of the graduating class of 2018, the IMGs is at an all-time high. Although
percentage of MD medical students percentage decreased to 8.2%29 the number of MD seniors who have
who entered pediatric training each (Fig 1). The NRMP data confirm the matched into pediatrics has
year from 2008 to 2018. decline in the number of MD seniors decreased by 158 since 2015, the
pursuing pediatrics. With the 2020 number of DO medical students who
Match, the absolute number of MD have matched into pediatrics has
RESULTS seniors is 8% lower than the increased by 185 and the number of
number matched in 2015. Over the IMGs (both foreign and US born) has
The 2020 Main Residency Match
same 5-year period, other increased by 134 (Table 3). Since
had 44 959 registrants, the highest
disciplines have increased the 2015, there have been dramatic
number recorded by the NRMP.
number of matched MD seniors, increases in the number of DO
Since 2015, the number of medical students who match into
applicants in the Match continues to including emergency medicine
first-year training programs. In
grow, with the majority of growth (19%), family medicine (10%),
2015, DO medical students filled
limited to MD seniors (7% growth) internal medicine (5%), obstetrics
8.9% of first-year training positions
and DO medical students (143%). and gynecology (9%), psychiatry
in the Main Residency Match, and by
Since 2015, there has been a 3% (47%), and surgery (6%) (Table 2).
2020, that number had increased to
growth in the number of US IMGs 19.2% of first-year training
The number of applicants who
but a 6% decline in the number of positions.
matched into categorical pediatric
non-US IMGs. The 2020 match rate
positions has increased each year as
for MD seniors was 93.7%, a Although there has been an increase
more programs and positions are
percentage consistent with the usual in the number of pediatric positions
added to the Match. In 2020,
match rate for MD seniors. The offered in the Match, the last 4 years
pediatrics had an absolute increase
match rate for DO seniors was has witnessed a significant increase
of 158 matched applicants into
90.7%, the highest rate recorded for in the number of unfilled pediatric
categorical pediatric programs
DO seniors. The match rates for US positions. From 2017 to 2020, there
compared with 2015. However, the
IMGs (61%) and non-US IMGs was a total of 223 categorical first-
growth in pediatrics lags behind
(61.1%) were the highest recorded year pediatric positions that were
other disciplines. During this same
by the NRMP since 1991 and 1990, not filled in the Main Residency
period, remarkable growth in filled Match, with the 2019 Match
respectively. first-year positions occurred in representing the highest number of
internal medicine (1626 positions), unfilled positions in a decade. In the
In 2020, there were 2864 first-year family medicine (1274 positions),
categorical pediatric positions in the 4 previous years (2013–2016), there
emergency medicine (839 were only 51 unfilled categorical
Match, the highest number of positions), psychiatry (499 pediatric positions (Table 4).
positions ever offered and an positions), surgery (309 positions),
increase of 17 positions compared and obstetrics and gynecology (185 In 2020, a total of 1658 pediatric
with the 2019 Match. The 2020 positions). The 2020 match rate for subspecialty positions were listed in
Match represented a 7% increase family medicine was 92.5% and for the NRMP Fellowship Match. Of
from the number of categorial internal medicine was 95.7%. these, 1390 were filled for an
pediatric positions offered in 2015. Pediatrics had a match rate of overall match rate of 84%, similar to
During this same time, other 98.2%, whereas emergency the overall match rate of 86% in
disciplines had significant increases medicine, psychiatry, surgery, and 2015. The majority of positions
in the number of positions offered obstetrics and gynecology had (65%) were filled by graduates of
in the Match, including emergency match rates $98.9%. Thus, not only US MD medical schools. The
medicine (46%), family medicine have other disciplines significantly remaining positions were filled by
(46%), and internal medicine (28%) expanded the number of training non-US IMGs (13%), graduates of US
(Table 1). positions, but they have also DO medical schools (13%), and US
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TABLE 2 Number of Matched MD Seniors by Disciplines medicine physicians and advanced
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015–2020 Growth, n (%) practice providers. It is estimated
that family medicine physicians
Emergency medicine 1438 1486 1601 1606 1617 1713 275 (19)
Family medicine 1405 1467 1513 1628 1601 1543 138 (10) provide 20% of the physician
Internal medicine 3317 3291 3245 3195 3366 3496 179 (5) visits for US children.37 However, a
Obstetrics-gynecology 1002 981 1049 1051 1049 1089 87 (9) recent cross-sectional survey of
Psychiatry 774 850 923 982 1054 1138 364 (47) family medicine physicians reveals
Surgery 979 948 1005 1005 1053 1033 54 (6)
Pediatrics 1889 1829 1849 1746 1715 1731 –158 ( 8) that the number of family
physicians providing care to
children is decreasing.38,39 This
with pediatrics should advance the As we respond to the changing trend is noteworthy because the
ongoing dialogue about whether demographics of our population, we geographic maldistribution of
pediatrics is “right sized” to meet can no longer focus on the absolute pediatricians in many rural areas of
the needs of our nation’s children. numbers of trainees as a predictor the country has been offset by the
Although the 7% increase in of workforce stability and must presence of family medicine
number of first-year categorical consider factors that impact the physicians.38 Equally concerning is
pediatric positions offered in the functional capacity of our workforce. a recent analysis of all-payer claims
Match between 2015 and 2020 is The increasing administrative data from Vermont in which
encouraging, we must contrast this demands on physician time has led researchers found that an
to the dramatic growth in other to a decrease in the percentage of increasing rural location of a child
clinical disciplines. Over the past 10 time subspecialists devote to direct was associated with decreasing
years, the pediatric footprint in the patient care, a finding consistent odds of receiving care in a family
with AAP data that identified a
Match has diminished as growth in medicine practice.40 Any hope that
other disciplines has far exceeded downward trend in the number of
pediatric advanced practice
the growth in pediatrics. The hours worked by primary care
providers will augment the
expansion of adult-focused pediatricians.5,35 The functional
pediatric and family medicine
capacity of the workforce is
disciplines is aligned with the workforce is challenged by an
impacted by the number of
health care demands of a country impending critical shortage of the
clinicians working part-time.
that is expected to have more pediatric nurse practitioners. Of the
Although the number of
adults than children for the first >270 000 licensed nurse
pediatricians who work part-time
time in US history by the year practitioners, only 5% are certified
appears to have leveled off, almost
2034.31 However, despite a falling in pediatrics.41,42 Certification data
30% of graduating residents seek
birth rate, pediatrics must prepare from the National Commission on
part-time work at the end of their
for increases in the number of the Certification of Physician
training.12,13 The gender disparities
children living in the United States Assistants reveal only 1.9% of the
that have been described in the
and the increased survival of physician assistant workforce focus
literature must also be addressed to
children with complex medical their practice on the care of
support the growing number of
conditions.32,33 Our workforce children.43
women in the pediatric workforce.36
demands are further exacerbated
The functional capacity of the
by the demand for general and To enhance our discussion of the
pediatric workforce must be viewed
subspecialty pediatric care in many functional capacity of the pediatric
from the perspective of the patient
rural areas of the country and a workforce, we must understand the
and must address the geographic
growing commitment to the global important contributions to the care
maldistribution of the pediatric
community.34 of children made by family
workforce. In a study of general
pediatricians and family physicians,
TABLE 3 Number of Applicants by Categories Matching Into Pediatrics
Shipman et al44 identified significant
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 disparities in access to primary care
MD seniors 1889 1829 1849 1746 1715 1731 physicians for children. Almost 15
MD graduates 32 41 24 29 34 31 million children living in areas with
DO medical students 303 353 361 403 502 488
a low penetration of physicians
US IMG 174 201 204 218 222 222
Non-US IMG 254 250 253 315 305 340 serving children were 6 times less
Totala 2654 2675 2693 2711 2778 2812 likely to have access to primary care
a
Total includes a small number of Canadian medical students. physicians compared with those
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TABLE 6 Pediatric Subspecialties With Low Match Rates and 2020 Ratio of Applicants/Position from these areas must be included
2020 Ratio in our workforce discussions.
Applicants/
2015, n 2016, n 2017, n 2018, n 2019, n 2020, n Position
CONCLUSIONS
Child abuse 0.8
Positions in the Match 20 19 26 27 20 22 Reviewing workforce data is a
Unfilled positions 7 14 14 13 7 10 complicated undertaking, but as
Developmental and behavioral 0.6 highlighted in this review, it is
pediatrics
Positions in the Match 41 48 44 49 48 46 imperative to understand the
Unfilled positions 11 22 13 16 18 22 changing composition of the
Endocrinology 0.7 pediatric workforce. Our vision for
Positions in the Match 85 83 88 96 99 108 the future can best be achieved by a
Unfilled positions 20 29 28 32 49 41
Infectious disease 0.7 commitment to a comprehensive
Positions in the Match 66 70 77 72 79 73 strategic planning process with the
Unfilled positions 36 25 29 32 42 27 many organizations involved across
Nephrology 0.6 the multiple stages of the
Positions in the Match 58 62 59 58 65 64
Unfilled positions 37 35 27 22 38 26 educational continuum. There are
Pulmonology 0.7 many important considerations to
Positions in the Match 61 66 67 69 74 74 include in this dialogue. The decline
Unfilled positions 31 23 20 22 34 25 in MD medical students pursuing
Rheumatology 0.8
Positions in the Match 40 37 40 41 39 42 pediatric training requires a careful
Unfilled positions 18 12 11 19 20 13 review of medical school curricula
and a concerted effort to augment
progresses, location is often the Understanding this decision-making the pediatric experiences within our
most important factor in selecting a process may offer potential insights medical schools. The important
residency program, whereas other for addressing concerns that have contributions of DO medical
factors, such as lifestyle, prestige of led to the dichotomy between students to our workforce must lead
the program, and patient subspecialty programs that easily fill to a deeper partnership with leaders
populations, become less their training positions and an in osteopathic medicine. We must
important.59 However, in choosing equally important group of enhance the role of IMGs by
positions at the end of general subspecialties that struggle to fill identifying strategies that augment
pediatrics or subspecialty training, their training positions. Solutions to their training experiences.
lifestyle and family considerations the administrative burdens and Understanding the factors that
become more important drivers of regulatory requirements that further impact the career decisions of
decisions.60,61 The impact of debt compromise the goal of delivering trainees may highlight areas for
burden must also be elucidated in clinical care and advancing the potential interventions. Emphasizing
this dialogue as we consider research agenda of the pediatric and improving workforce diversity
solutions such as loan repayment subspecialty workforce must be must be a core foundation of our
programs and salary subsidies.62–64 elucidated.5,15,66,67 work. The important contributions
Understanding that the majority of of pediatricians in clinical care,
residents who matriculate into Finally, it is our moral imperative to scientific discovery, education, and
fellowship make these decisions strengthen representation and public health must be celebrated so
early in training may identify crucial diversity of the pediatric workforce. that trainees understand the impact
stages at which providing guidance We must go beyond acknowledging and advantages of pediatric careers.
about pediatric careers may alter the importance of workforce It is time to focus our efforts and
their career trajectory.65 As diversity and move to action- address the myriad of challenges in
suggested by Querido et al,57 “future oriented strategies that enhance the the pediatric workforce. Establishing
research should focus on detecting diversification of pediatrics and this as one of our highest priorities
interrelations between hypothesized demonstrate our clear commitment will require a major collaborative
predictors and identify the to this work as a core framework effort between our academic and
determinants and interrelations at within pediatrics. Successful models professional organizations, but the
the various stages of the medical must be reviewed, discussed, and future benefit to the nation’s
career decision-making process.” disseminated widely.7,8,68,69 Leaders children will be substantial.
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