Research Paper The Rise of Al and the Future of War Mahnoor Haider THE FUTURE OF Al IN Te ALAr Intelligence: ee is Teefore getting into detail about Al, itis important to know what intelligence is, Intellig “a very general mental capability, that among other things involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think complex plans, and learn quickly and from experience” Despite its rapid rise, there is a lack of consensus on the definition of Al (artificial intelligence), However, it can be defined as “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines” It emerged with the development of digital computers around the 1940s, nonetheless, a breakthrough in the field of artificial int roduced in 1956 at the Dartmouth Conference, “Warfare Is generally understood to be the controlled and systematle waging of armed conflict between sovereiga rations or states, using military might and strategy, until one opponent is defeated on the fleld or sues for peace in the face of inevitable destruction and greater toss of human dife”. There are four major elements of warfare © Weaponry (guns, bullets, missiles, tanks, jets, drones, aircrafts, submarines, and nuclear Denial (AD), command, control, and reconnaissance (C4SIR) telligence, sturveillane ions, comput © Battle (types of battles and wars)ature and Character of Wa © Carl von Clausewitz in his book "On War distingy shes between the two. He says that the nature of war describes what war is and the character explains how the war is fought. ‘The nature of war is further elaborated as violent, detrimental, political , and con opposi © However, the character is expressed as the technology used, Inws and ethies of the world, ing of 2 wills and methods of social, potitical, and militant organization, © He explained how Prussian generals used old tacties against the Napoleonic army who modernized their tactics of war with time, Development of new tactics, weapons, and strategies need to be appr ‘ated and accepted instead of sticking to the old ones, The evolution has seen mai phases, from daggers‘hammers in the Stone Age to swords to bows and arrows to catapults. History saw a great transition with the development of gunpowder in China in medieval times. Then led to the dev Jopment of engines, and planes in modern times, then to the production of guns, machine guns, missiles, drones, and nuclear weapons. Rise of AL and Autonomous Weapons: AL is this regard: perception, cognition, and action hanging the future of war by brin; ng autonomy to Weaponry. There are three elements in According to Mark Gubrud, Ph.D., a member of the International Committee for Robot Arms Control, “Autonomous weapons are robotic systems that, ence activated, can sel and engage targets without further intervention by a human operator, Examples include drones ar missiles that hunt Jor their targets, using their onboard ensors ant computers, Based on a computers decision that an appropriate target has been tocated, that target will then be engaged" Anificial intelligence in the military focuses on three main aspects: © Cyber attacking software © Data crunchers Autonomous machineslow level of autonomy ly to from the level of autonomy can be seen in various degree nd forget missiles, and fin tes Navy and the Israeli army have Howev ¥ landmines, to semi-autonomous weapons such a fire high level of autonomy. For example, both the United ‘weapons systems that can autonomously detect, track, and fire at incoming missiles, using programmed parameters. The Countries Set To Dominate Drone Warfare 1p (0 2028 Total forecast purchases of weaponized multary drow United States co @ Ms russ gy Ae vw Ss too S Be = ma @Olw ZT Molaysia MS If 26 irdanesi Mf as 1,000 Statlsta Za The report jams. from Losing Humanity,” a report released by Human Rights Watch in November 201 that technical limitations mean robots could not reliably d in irregular warfare, and could not fulfill the requirement to judge inguish argues combatants, particularly proportionality, @ US Air Force's Lockheed Martin F-22A, the most stea approximately a hefly amount of $125 million, With the development and rise of AL, it future war, An AL algorithm was put era thy and lethal jet has a cost of ans inva ccan be said that AL is going to beat hunwith a US Air Force F-16 pilot, and the machin head to head in 5 stimulated dogfights merged victorious every time . of data links in a battleground, Al has ilobal Hawk—a_ high-end Keeping in view, the high risk and vulnerabifit helped come up with a more survivable option, igence-yathering unarmed drone. ‘illance, and reconnaiss The UAV is used to relay sun ince data to fighting units on the ground, Global Hawk has a total of more than 320,000 flight hours with elliger missions Nown in support of military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, North Africa, and the greater Asia-Pacific region, ‘To support and bodyguard air combatants, Australian Airforce Researchers accompanied by Bo considered to be a gam ig have come up with an unmanned airerafl, the Loyal Wingman, The aircraft is nth ield of autonomous systems. It is incorporated ngerned to fly alongside manned combat aircraft with artificial intelligence and des 1g equal surveillance, and defense, and helping take down airerafts © Policymakers and military institutions all around the world are facing competitive pressure to expand the use of military applications of Al. © On pan of the US, experimentation with autonomous boats which ean detect and track submarines from thousands of miles is being conducted. Similarly, China is exploring, swarm intelligence while Russia is working on underwater drones. China's Race Towards Al Research Dominance Al research papers published per year by selected countries (in thousands) @ United States MEU @ China @ United Kingdom ml Japan 7 +200% [] EE 7 +240% 74 +3,350% 7 im EB 7 +403% =] — a 7*295% [] 2000 Percentage increase 20082021 Source: OECD ©D® statista %Putin professed his views about AL as, “the future, not only for Russia but for all humankind. It comes with colossal opportunit this sphere will ut also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the teade decome the ruler of the world” “The development and evolution of killer robots have been described as a potentially seismic and ‘vulnerable event in warfare akin to the invention of gunpowder and nuclear bombs, putting us in the third revolution of warfare. Matt Mahmoud, an Al researcher at Amnesty International, says in an interview that, “states are in competition with each other around actonomous weapon systems.” Pros and Cons: © A better understanding of the evolution and rise of Al in means of speed, lethality, and accuracy can be made by reference to the Go game, arguably the most complex game in the history of mankind. In 2016, artificial intel the 18 times Go world champion, Lee Sedol, with a victory of 4. igence, AlphaGe took over and defeated It ran through millions of games and leamed the techniques used and even made up new ones that no one has ever seen.It can be seen how efficient artificial intelligence is becoming that it was able to beat humans at their own game and the new champion was ing AI is putting humans out of the picture right there defeated by its successor, AI defe: and then © Military application of artificial intelligence can help change the nature of warfare. Alin warfare can have many advantages as well as limitations. I be able to increase the pace of wars, as © Antificial intelligence, with its algorithms, w building strategies and tacties would be easy. It would also increase the speed of data fins that there will be no room for human errors and tasks analysis. The rise of AL ascert would be carried out accurately. As for the limitations, despite the evolving nature of Al,it can never have the instincts as humans. It can easily be fooled or hacked and can be used against ourselves. © Another limitation is their inability to multitask, they'll perform what they've been programmed for. After coming up with a definition, humans possess the eapability ta express thelr thought processing, which leads to the decision, On the contrary, humans can comprehend very little about how Al made the decision. Conclusion © Artificial intelligence is already changing the future of war, The extent of this autonomous weaponry cannot be measured with certainty at present, what is obvious is that it will change the future of war in every dimension. It can identify targets. predict the outcome of a conflict and even predict the future of entire populations. The military has long sought to hamess the power of artificial intelligence to improve the behavior of soldiers. li but surely will repeat itself over time. Only this time, the results will be dismal and tra © We are st ig in the same world and the principle of history is not going to change All the states are running towards incorporating their arsenal with as much Al, and autonomous weaponry; because that is the future. They all need to be prepared for what comes next and deal with it-accordingly; obviously, you can't fight a UAV with a catapult.