World's Poultry Science Journal

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Future demands of the poultry industry: will we

meet our commitments sustainably in developed
and developing economies?

F. J. Kleyn & M. Ciacciariello

To cite this article: F. J. Kleyn & M. Ciacciariello (2021) Future demands of the poultry industry:
will we meet our commitments sustainably in developed and developing economies?, World's
Poultry Science Journal, 77:2, 267-278, DOI: 10.1080/00439339.2021.1904314

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00439339.2021.1904314

Published online: 09 Apr 2021.

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WORLD’S POULTRY SCIENCE JOURNAL
2021, VOL. 77, NO. 2, 267–278
https://doi.org/10.1080/00439339.2021.1904314

Future demands of the poultry industry: will we meet our

commitments sustainably in developed and developing
economies?
F. J. Kleyna,b and M. Ciacciariellob
a
Spesfeed Consulting (Pty) Ltd, South Africa; bDepartment and Animal and Poultry Science, School of
Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

SUMMARY KEYWORDS
The world’s population is expected to reach 9.8 billion people by 2050. Consumer preferences; food
Increases in population size, coupled with socio-economic changes security; sustainability
such as urbanisation, age demographics, and increasing affluence
levels, will double the demand for poultry products by 2050. The
primary objective of agribusiness is to ensure food security for the
global population at affordable prices. Concurrently, there is a desire
that all food products be produced sustainably. The poultry industry is
well-positioned to achieve adequate nutrient-dense food provision
because chickens are efficient converters of energy and nutrients into
edible product. Poultry production plays an essential role in local food
security and the alleviation of poverty in the absence of other nutrient-
dense foods. The poultry industry possesses the technology, skills and
capital to meet the expected demand targets. However, the demand
for poultry products that fulfil the environmental, social and financial
standpoints of sustainability will increase. Public opinion will prevent us
from using many of the technologies required to achieve these goals.
Consumers will need to change their expectations, behaviour and
spending patterns in the best interests of sustainability.

Introduction
The world’s population, currently estimated to be 7.2 billion, is expected to reach 9.8 billion
by 2050, with the vast majority of population growth occurring in the developing countries of
South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (WRI 2018). The African continent’s population is
expected to be two billion people by 2050, double the current number (Montpellier Panel
2013). Not only will the population grow, but three major demographic changes will coincide
with this massive rise: first, the rate of urbanisation will increase to 70% of the world’s
population in contrast to less than 50% today (UN 2015); second, the general level of
affluence in the developing world will rise; and, third, the average age of populations will
increase due to reduced fertility rates and rising life expectancy. As populations become more
affluent, the expectations and requirements for food will change. Consumer concern, which
has been fuelled by food scares and the desire to eat healthier and safer food, influences food
purchasing patterns (Magkos et al. 2006; Bray and Ankeny 2018).

CONTACT F. J. Kleyn rick@spesfeed.co.za Spesfeed Consulting (Pty) Ltd, PO Box 955, Broederstroom, 0240, South
Africa
© 2021 World’s Poultry Science Association.
268 F. J. KLEYN AND M. CIACCIARIELLO

Agriculture has done well in its role of providing food security. Globally, the proportion of
malnourished children under the age of five fell from 25% in 1990 to 14% in 2015 (The
Economist 2017). The situation in Africa is of more concern. The number of malnourished
children is increasing (FAO 2017) and extreme poverty still affects 35% of sub-
Saharan Africa’s people (Schoch and Lakner 2020). The price of all meat products, relative
to average income, has never been cheaper (Godfray et al. 2018). Between 1980 and 2005, the
real price of poultry declined by 3% per year (Narrod et al. 2012). In low-income countries,
citizens are dependent on the small quantities of animal products that they can afford to
prevent any negative impacts on their health (Godfray et al. 2018). Paradoxically, technical
progress in high-income countries has led to higher production costs, an increase in the
distribution margins, and a higher demand for services related to food (Adamopoulos 2009;
Schneider et al. 2011).
The growth in livestock production in both developing and developed economies is
being led by poultry production; in fact, production in developing countries exceeds that
of the developed world (Narrod et al. 2012). It is important to consider various forces that
are acting on agribusiness. First, the agricultural industry needs to ensure that there is
enough food for everyone. Second, producers need to take heed of evolving consumer
perceptions and demands. Finally, poultry plays a role in reducing poverty, making the
development of dynamic poultry industries vital for social well-being and a core compo­
nent of the economies of many regions (Alders and Pym 2009; FAO 2015).
The transition of the livestock sector from ruminants towards monogastric animals, as
measured by the per capita consumption of meat, has been responsible for improved
efficiencies in terms of energy and protein production and for reductions in land area use
and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Wu et al. 2014; Davis et al. 2015; Fry et al. 2018;
Godfray et al. 2018). Animal agriculture uses about 70–74% of all agricultural land and
contributes about 15% of all GHG (Steinfeld et al. 2006; Davis et al. 2015; Godfray et al.
2018). These factors must define research agendas and government policies in diverse
parts of the world (Herrero and Thornton 2013; McMohan 2013; WRI 2018).
Despite the phenomenal growth in agricultural output, several ‘gaps’ exist. The food gap
represents the difference between the food produced and the likely demand. By 2050, 56%
more calories will be needed to close this gap (WRI 2018). Yield gaps exist between commer­
cial agriculture and smallholder farmers (Davis et al. 2015; FAO 2015) and the yields of
conventional production systems and alternative systems (De Ponti et al. 2012; Van Horne
2020). A land gap will be created by increasing pressure on cropland, estimated to be
593 million hectares by 2050 (WRI 2018). Lastly, a so-called emission gap will open up
between desired GHG emissions and what is produced (UN 2018). This paper explores the
poultry industry, its sustainability level, and how we can fulfil our obligation to close these
gaps.

Sustainability
There is increasing awareness that agricultural production systems need to be sustainable
and, rather than merely remaining a concept, this issue demands the attention of food
producers and consumers. Interdependencies between resource use (land and water) and
food production impact broadly on poultry production and sustainability. Climate
change, a topic beyond the remit of this paper, will also need to be considered. Besides,
 WORLD’S POULTRY SCIENCE JOURNAL 269

issues such as feed crop demand, crop yields, resource use (land, protein and energy),
management practices, and the use of chemicals (pesticides and antibiotics) all need to be
examined. Sustainable systems should cope with major shocks such as climate change
and pandemics (Tilman et al. 2002; Alonzo 2020).
Sustainability is a concept with multiple facets, namely environmental, ethical (welfare and
social), economic and enforcement, often called the four ‘Es’ of sustainability, as categorised by
the FAO (2012). Environmental integrity revolves around the management of resources,
environmental pollution and the degradation of ecosystems; ethics and social well-being focus
on both animal and human well-being; economic viability is critical to the survival of
agribusiness; and enforcement or institutional sustainability is required by the institutions
and governments that promulgate and enforce regulations. As the European Union (2001)
points out, ‘too often, action to achieve objectives in one policy area hinders progress in
another’. Sustainability often depends on the viewpoint of a person or institution, and
different social groupings tend to focus on the area of sustainability that suits their particular
narrative.
Nutrition is central to sustainable poultry production. The more efficiently chickens
utilise their feed, the more financially viable the feeding operation becomes, with
a reduced carbon footprint due to lower demand for resources. Appropriate nutrition
also impacts on bird and human welfare. The justification for reducing dietary protein
levels is compelling (Greenhalgh et al. 2020). Reduced crude protein (CP) diets are fed to
poultry by applying enhanced ideal amino acid profiles and by utilising an ever-widening
range of synthetic amino acids. Lower CP diets lead to increase performance, improved
protein digestibility, reduced water intake, reduced manure nitrogen, and better bird
welfare (Belloir et al. 2017; Chrystal et al. 2020). Lowering dietary CP by 1% reduces the
carbon footprint of broiler production by 102 kg/ton of broiler produced (Martin 2020).
The ingredients used to manufacture poultry diets are a vital aspect of sustainability. The
production of grain and soybeans, as well as long transport chains, are often associated with
environmental degradation that harms sustainability (INRAE, 2021). Not all ingredients
should be viewed in the same light when assessing their environmental impact. Production
methods, such as precision farming and no-till conservation tillage play a role in reducing
inputs (INRAE 2021). Land-use change, which describes practices such as deforestation, has
an enormous impact; by contrast, the re-deployment of ‘set aside’ land has a minimal effect on
the carbon footprint. The INRAE (2021) feed tables carry data suitable for least-cost formula­
tion, based on Life Cycle Analysis. These data allow nutritionists to determine the environ­
mental impact of diet formulation and animal production.
The cultivars used in the production of feed crops impact on both production efficiency
and the size of the carbon footprint. The use of genetically modified (GM) technology brings
new prospects in addressing food security problems (Muzhinji and Ntuli 2020). GM crops
facilitate no-tillage and conservation tillage practices that help to control soil erosion, conserve
soil moisture, support carbon sequestration, decrease GHG emissions, reduce pesticide
spraying and increase yields (Van Acker et al. 2017; Brooks and Barfoot 2020).
New or alternative ingredients are a means of driving the sustainability of feeding poultry.
If locally produced ingredients replace imported materials, a significant reduction in the
carbon footprint of animal products can be realised. However, alternative ingredients pose
a number of challenges. Often their nutrient content is unknown, their quality variable, their
270 F. J. KLEYN AND M. CIACCIARIELLO

supply erratic, and the quantities available are frequently constrained. In addition, relative to
conventional ingredients, many of the alternative ingredients are expensive.

Food demand
Ensuring and maintaining food security is the most significant concern faced by human­
kind, something that the well-fed tend to forget. Animal products play a role in food
security. They represent 40% of the value of all agricultural production (Godfray et al.
2018) and provide 13% of the calories and 28% of the protein consumed (FAO 2011). An
increase in the human consumption of animal products of 1 kg/year results in a reduction
in grain consumption of 2.8 kg/year (Wu et al. 2014).
Merely meeting the demand for food is too simplistic a measure and a more complex
definition of food security is required (Bodirsky et al. 2015). Food security implies the physical,
social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for all to maintain a healthy
and active life (Pinstrup-Andersen 2009). Access to food is only part of the solution, afford­
ability is just as important as supply. High food prices impede the resolution of food security
issues in areas where food cannot be grown (Skinner and Haysom 2016).
As people become wealthier, they tend to eat fewer grains and increase their con­
sumption of meat and high-value foods (Bennett 1941; FAO 2013). Food demand is
expected to increase between 59 and 98% by 2050 (Elferink and Schierhorn 2016), but
this will be skewed towards a demand for animal-based products (Bodirsky et al. 2015;
Gouel and Guimbard 2018; OECD 2020). It is projected that the demand for animal
products could grow by 70% by 2050 (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012), while Gouel
and Guimbard (2018) predicted that the demand for animal-based calories would
increase from 74 to 114%. Global demand for eggs is expected to increase by 65%
(Preisinger 2018), and the demand for poultry meat by 121% (Alexandratos and
Bruinsma 2012). Although food supply has more than tripled since the 1960s (Gouel
and Guimbard 2018), there are concerns that this trend cannot be maintained to meet
expected demand. Considering the variation in the estimated demand for poultry
products, it is reasonable to expect that the demand will double by the year 2050.
However, a delicate balance needs to be maintained to ensure that costs do not prevent
access to food by poor. To achieve these goals, land use and crop production efficiency
need to increase. The social and ecological consequences of clearing more land for
agriculture are high since deforestation and the destruction of savannahs cause rapid
and irreversible loss of biodiversity and extensive GHG emissions (CBO 2012).
The concept of sustainable intensification is taking root (Montpellier Panel 2013;
Rockström et al. 2017; WRI 2018). In future, the intention is that farmers grow more on
existing land without becoming over-reliant on pesticides and fertilisers, and without increas­
ing GHG emission, thus addressing a number of the ‘gaps’ already highlighted. Precision
farming tools, hybrid or GM seeds, irrigation systems, and environmentally optimised crop
rotations will need to be adopted. It is difficult to envisage how smallholder, undercapitalised
farmers will adopt all of these technologies. The Montpellier Panel (2013) and the UN (2015)
predict that 75–80% of future production increases in the developing world need to come
from enhanced crop yields, with the remainder arising from an increase in the amount of
arable land used. Elferink and Schierhorn (2016) comment that, currently, increases in crop
yields are too slow to meet the forecasted demand for food.
 WORLD’S POULTRY SCIENCE JOURNAL 271

These gaps will not close without significant long-term private and public investment.
Official development assistance (ODA) earmarked for agriculture has declined signifi­
cantly in the last 30 years – from 16% of total ODA in 1980 to 3% in 2006 (NEPAD 2013),
ensuring the stagnation of yields. More supportive policies, laws and public spending on
infrastructure would create a favourable investment climate for agriculture (Elferink and
Schierhorn 2016).

The current status of poultry production

It is challenging to treat agriculture as a single entity. Various contrasts are evident between
smallholder farmers, mostly found in developing economies, and high-intensity, modern
agribusiness. Approximately 2.5 billion people depend on small farms globally (FAO 2013),
many of whom live below the poverty datum line, estimated to be 1.90 USD/day (WHO 2020).
Subsistence farmers are mostly dependent on local inputs for animal feed, fertiliser and water
(rainfall). Conversely, agribusiness is almost entirely dependent on an external supply of fuel,
fertiliser, grain, protein, and water. High levels of vertical control characterise the poultry
industry in what is broadly termed ‘integration’, a strategy known to resist shocks in input and
output prices (Kryger et al. 2010; Narrod et al. 2012). Mainstream agricultural development
concentrates on productivity. Until recently, it has placed limited focus on all aspects of
sustainability, resulting in pressure on the environment through its demand for resources and
its emission of pollutants (Rockström et al. 2017; Van Wagenberg et al. 2017).
The poultry industry has adapted to increased demand for cheap, safe products by
becoming more efficient. From a consumer’s perspective, poultry has many competi­
tive advantages over other forms of animal protein. These include convenience, con­
sistent product quality, the absence of religious strictures, a healthy image (white
meat), low-cost production, a continuous stream of innovative products, and afford­
ability (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). In addition, poultry has a better feed-to-
food conversion ratio than other forms of animal product and a smaller environmental
footprint in terms of resource use per kilogram of meat or eggs produced (Vaarst et al.
2015; Fry et al. 2018; Godfray et al. 2018). When measured based on protein utilisation
per unit of edible portion, poultry is considerably more efficient than ruminants or
aquaculture (Table 1) (Fry et al. 2018).
Unfortunately, several perceptions tarnish our industry: that production occurs in factory
farms; animal welfare is flawed; and that poultry products contain hormones (erroneously so)

Table 1. Calculated protein retention for selected aquatic and terrestrial

farmed animal species (after Fry et al. 2018).
Protein retention in
Species FCRa Edible (%) Feed protein (%) human diet (%)
Atlantic salmon 1.2–1.5 58–88 35 28
Tilapia 1.4–2.4 37–45 28 17
Beef cattle 6–10 52–64 14 13
Dairy (milk)b 1.6–2 10 16 12
Broiler 1.7–2 70–78 20 37
Egg productionc 2.0 92 15 32
Pig 2.7–5 68–76 18 21
a
Breeding stock consumption is ignored. Note the high FCR used in the calculation.
b
Figures added: Assuming a 650 kg cow producing 30 ,/day at 10% solids.
c
Figures added: Assuming 320 eggs per year and 7 kg feed used for rearing.
272 F. J. KLEYN AND M. CIACCIARIELLO

and residual antibiotics, which may be harmful. Many of these beliefs are based on perception
and misinformation, often created by the poultry industry itself, which has used ‘Hormone-
free’, ‘Drug-free’ and ‘Free-range’ as marketing slogans for decades. The danger of consumers
imbibing harmful drug residues from consuming poultry products, and the notion that these
drugs somehow contribute to an increase in drug-resistant bacteria, are more perceptions
than a reality (Bywater and Casewell 2000; Cervantes 2015). Scientific evidence suggests that
issues with anti-microbial resistance in human medicine are primarily due to the incorrect use
of antibiotics by people rather than derived from food-animals (UK Government 2011).
Regardless, public perception is that antibiotic use needs to be handled effectively and time­
ously; thus, the solution will be for the poultry industry to operate as responsible stewards of
the limited number of compounds that we have at our disposal.
The most significant effect on the environment by animal agriculture is the level of
GHG produced and, by extension, the size of the carbon footprint of our production
systems. Intensive animal production systems produce fewer GHG emissions per unit of
output than extensive, forage-based systems (Godfray et al. 2018). By estimation, the
poultry supply chain represents 80% of poultry production’s total energy demand (or
82% of GHG emission). However, steps should still be taken on poultry farms to reduce
energy use using improved heating, ventilation and lighting (Pelletier et al. 2014).
The feed conversion ratio of broilers is improving by two to three points per annum
(Avendaňo et al. 2017). By calculation, a 2 kg broiler grown in 2025 will require about
300 g less feed than it would today – a 10% reduction, leading to a decrease in GHG
production. Pelletier et al. (2014) demonstrated that table egg production per hen housed
had increased by 30% between 1960 and 2010. In the same period, the total environ­
mental footprint was 63% lower in terms of GHG emissions, with a 13% reduction in
cumulative energy demand. Improved egg mass output per bird housed is the primary
driver for improvements in feed efficiency and, therefore, sustainability. Feed usage has
dropped by 0.45 kg per kilogram of eggs produced over the last 20 years, a 22%
improvement (Preisinger 2018). The real contributor to the carbon footprint is the
production and transportation of feed crops. Only by using feed more efficiently will
any meaningful change be made to the carbon footprint.

Alternative production systems

Poultry production systems that offer freedom of movement and outdoor access to
chickens (alternative systems) are perceived to be better for chicken welfare. However,
these systems are associated with public health and food safety risks (Van Asselt 2019).
They have a direct bearing on resource usage and, thus, on environmental sustain­
ability (Williams et al. 2009; Van Wagenberg et al. 2017). Alternative systems have
a lower environmental burden when measured per unit of land use; however, more
land is required in total, and the environmental burden is higher per unit of product.
Alternative systems are inferior to conventional production systems in terms of
environmental sustainability, and they will require more acreage to meet future
demand. Alternative systems are more ethically acceptable to consumers but, if welfare
is measured in terms of flock mortality, then conventional systems are the more
principled choice (Weeks et al. 2016). Production costs for alternative systems are
higher, for instance, the cost of conventional systems is about one-third of the cost of
 WORLD’S POULTRY SCIENCE JOURNAL 273

organic production (82.6 Eurocents versus 242.0 Eurocents per kilogram of live
weight) (Van Horne 2020). However, if premium prices are achieved for organic
products, the return per animal produced may be higher (Van Wagenberg et al. 2017).
The latest global trend is the production of ‘slow-growing’ chickens. Widowski (2020)
found that many welfare indicators are directly related to growth rate, making slow-growing
chickens an option on welfare grounds. However, the National Chicken Council (2017)
estimated that if one-third of the US broiler industry were to switch to slow-growing
production systems, nearly 1.5 billion more broilers would be required annually to meet
current demand. This increase would necessitate using an extra three million hectares of
land to grow the required feed ingredients. In the layer industry, conversion to cage-free
production systems would lead to a rise in production costs of 14–28% due to higher feed
intakes, increased mortality, more downgraded eggs, and greater space requirements
(Preisinger 2018).
An organic seal of approval does not indicate food safety, contrary to widespread
consumer belief (Schroeder et al. 2014). Instead, any form of ‘artisanal’ production often
escapes the scrutiny of public health officials. Paradoxically, most consumers are more
concerned about their own well-being and consume ‘natural’ products, rather than the
welfare of the animals themselves (Magkos et al. 2006; Bray and Ankeny 2018).

Smallholder systems
Smallholder systems, mostly found in the middle- and low-income countries in the
tropics, contribute 8% of global egg production but only 2% of poultry meat production
(Mottet and Tempio 2016). Eight-five % of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa keep
chickens or other poultry types (Guèye 2000). Poultry plays essential social and cultural
roles in communities and frequently serves as a ready source of capital.
In the tropics, environmental conditions favour pathogen growth, year-round survival
and diversity. Humans and their livestock live at high densities, often in close proximity.
Anti-microbials are essential to the health and well-being of people and their livestock,
and we should guard against the poor shouldering the burden of blanket bans on their
usage (Robinson et al. 2017). Poultry farms need to be situated close to their markets,
allowing poultry production in peri-urban areas. Most local ordinances inadequately
address human and animal health concerns for backyard poultry (Brinkley et al. 2018).
The resurgence of zoonosis only increases these fears. Despite the strides made in
controlling Newcastle disease (Alders et al. 2010), little attention is paid to the health
and protection of smallholder poultry in general (Kryger et al. 2010).
It is difficult to forecast a bright future for smallholder poultry production because
smallholders are denied access to inputs, lack economies of scale, and generally fail to
meet the food safety, traceability, and compliance demands required by modern
retailers. The advantages of small-scale poultry projects are that relatively little capital
is required, labour costs are low, farmers see a quick return, and farm size is scalable;
thus, it is unlikely that they will disappear soon (Kryger et al. 2010; Narrod et al. 2012).
Yield gaps exist, offering the potential to improve productivity without increasing
resource demand (Davis et al. 2015).
274 F. J. KLEYN AND M. CIACCIARIELLO

Discussion and conclusions

The poultry industry has made remarkable strides in improving their production systems’
sustainability by attaining faster growth rates and improved egg outputs. These improvements
have led to improved nutrient and energy utilisation, lower demand for scarce resources per
unit of product and improved financial viability. Technical efficiency places the poultry
industry in a strong position to buy scarce resources in future. Future focus areas will need
to include a continued reduction in demand for resources such as land, energy and water
through continued efficiency improvements; a decrease in the use of certain chemicals
(antibiotics, pesticides and fertilisers); and a general improvement in bird welfare. Under
a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, agriculture’s deleterious impact on the environment will con­
tinue to increase (NAS, 2021). The poultry industry will have to strive for continuous
improvement in all aspects of sustainability in future.
Attempts to improve welfare through alternative production systems, including organic,
free-range and slow-growing animals, may harm the environment and hence sustainability
(Williams et al. 2009; De Jong and Butterworth 2016; Van Wagenberg et al. 2017). For
alternative production systems to be economically viable, high net prices are essential,
which, if not possible, will require subsidies from governments. A redesign of entire food
systems and a change in consumers’ mindset about which products they eat or purchase is
required to bring sustainability to the fore (UK Government 2011; NAS 2021).
Many of the technologies currently taken for granted by poultry producers may be
denied in future. An example is the voluntary withdrawal of ionophores from all broiler
diets in Norway following consumer pressure (Kaldhusdal 2018). As a consequence, the
industry will have to explore alternative technologies and management practices.
Despite the structural and market-related challenges smallholder farmers face, they play
a crucial role in moving towards local food security, sustainability, and the alleviation of
poverty in less developed countries. It would be unreasonable to expect these producers to
tackle this role as ‘organic’ farmers since they need to maximise yields on limited acreage and
have little opportunity to leverage higher selling prices to cover alternative production
systems’ increased production costs. As pointed out by De Ponti et al. (2012), the yield gaps
associated with the absence of inputs (genetics, balanced feed, and medication) are extreme,
negatively affecting food security and sustainability. Unless real interventions occur at the
global level, smallholders will become poorer, and food insecurity will become the norm.
All parties will require a more realistic approach if the demands of growing populations for
calories and protein are to be met sustainably. It is proposed that the new paradigm should be
‘sustainable’ products. These products would embrace the advantages of those systems that
fulfil each aspect of sustainability. Consumers will need to make a conscious choice to buy
such products. Sustainable products will expand business profits while reducing pollution and
improving animal welfare. Striving for ever-higher levels of sustainability, in all its aspects, will
be required to close the gaps that we know exist in food production systems.

Disclosure statement
The authors reported no potential conflict of interest. The authors funded the cost of publishing in open
access.
 WORLD’S POULTRY SCIENCE JOURNAL 275

Notes on contributors
F. J. Kleyn is a self-employed consulting nutritionist at SPESFEED Consulting (Pty) Ltd.
M. Ciacciariello is a senior lecturer in the Department and Animal and Poultry Science, School of
Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of KwaZulu-Natal,
Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.

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