A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O

1 Bayesian Revision Market Share

2 Binomial
3
4 p 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Total
5 Prior 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 1
6
7 New Evidence
8 n 20 x 4
9
10 Total
11 Joint Prob. 0.0045 0.0327 0.0261 0.0105 0.0009 0.0000 0.0748
12
13 Posterior 0.0601 0.4379 0.3489 0.1404 0.0124 0.0004
14
15
Bayesian Revision - Binomial
16 0.5
17 0.45
18
19 0.4
20 0.35
21
Probability

0.3
22
0.25 Prior
23
0.2 Posterior
24
25 0.15
26
27
0.1
28 0.05
29 0
30 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
31 p
32
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
1 Bayesian Revision
2 Poisson
3
4 l 1 2 3 4 Total
5 Prior 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 1
6
7 New evidence
8 Observed 2
9
10 Joint Prob. 0.0184 0.1353 0.0448 0.0293 0.2278
11
12 Posterior 0.0807 0.5940 0.1967 0.1286
13
14
15 Bayesian Revision - Poisson
16 0.7
17
18 0.6
19
0.5
20
21
Probability

0.4
22 Prior
23 0.3 Posterior
24
25 0.2
26
27 0.1
28
29 0
30 1 2 3 4
l
31
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N
1 Bayesian Revision Average stock return
2 Normal
3
4 Prior
5 M 15 s(M) 8
6
7 New Evidence
8 n 10 x-bar 11.54 s 6.8
9
10 Posterior Credible sets
11 M 11.7731 s(M) 2.07664 1-a
12 95% 11.77314 + or - 4.070137
13
14 Bayesian Revision - Normal
15 0.2
16 0.18
17
0.16
18
19 0.14
20
0.12
21 Prior
22 0.1
f(x)

Likelihood
23 0.08 Posterior
24
0.06
25
26 0.04
27
0.02
28
29 0
30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
31
x
32
Bayesian Revision based on Empirical Conditional Probabilities

Growth Decline Same

s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7
Prior Probability 0.2 0.3 0.5

Conditional Probabilities
s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7
Good P(I1 | .) 0.8 0.1 0.05
Bad P(I2 | .) 0.2 0.7 0.3
Neutral P(I3 | .) 0 0.2 0.65
P(I4 | .)
P(I5 | .)
Total 1 1 1 0 0 0 0

Joint Probabilities
s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7
I1 0.1600 0.0300 0.0250
I2 0.0400 0.2100 0.1500
I3 0.0000 0.0600 0.3250
I4
I5

Posterior Probabilities
s1 s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7
P(. | I1) 0.7442 0.1395 0.1163
P(. | I2) 0.1000 0.5250 0.3750
P(. | I3) 0.0000 0.1558 0.8442
P(. | I4)
P(. | I5)
s8 Total
1

s8

s8 Marginal
0.2150
0.4000
0.3850

s8