Deutsche Bank

Investment Bank

M&M trading update

31 March 2024
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

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81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Contents

Section
1 Macro update 1
2 Commodity price update 5
A Metals 7
B Coal 13
C Iron ore and steel 16
3 M&M share price performance 17

Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Macro update

Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Equities, FX, and commodities performance

Last 30 days
9% 25%
7% 20%
20%
6% 15%
4% 4% 10% 6%
5% 4% 4%
3% 5% -
3% 2% 2% 2% 1%
- -
1% -
1% 0% (5%) (2%)
0% (4%)
- (10%) (6%) (4%)
(0%)(0%)(0%)(0%)(0%) (9%)
(0%) (0%)(0%)(0%)(0%) (15%) (12%)
(1%)(1%)(1%)
(1%)(1%)(1%)
(1%) (20%)
(3%)
(25%)

Nickel

Iron ore
NEWC6000

NEWC5500

Gold

Copper

Aluminium

Zinc
ICI-4

PLV HCC
Brent
Henry Hub

Qinhuangdao 5500
Asia LNG
(6%)

KLCI
PSEi
STI

MYR
SET

Hang Seng
TAIEX

Euro Stoxx 600

TWD
THB
VN Index

ASX200

Nikkei 225
S&P 500

IDX

HKD

CNY

JPY
KOSPI

KRW
CSI 300

AUD
PHP

SGD

VND
INR

IDR
Nifty 50

2024YTD
35%
25%
30% 14%
8%
25% 21% 10%
- 3% 1%
20% -
14%13% (5%)
15% 10%10% (3%)
(4%) (5%)
10% 7%
5% 4% (20%) (12%) (9%)
3%
5% 3% 3% - (20%)
(20%)
- (35%)
(0%) (0%) (32%)
(5%) (1%) (1%)(2%)(2%)(2%)
(3%)(3%) (3%)(3%)(4%)(4%)(4%)
(10%) (50%) (44%)
(6%)(7%)
(15%)
(65%)
(20%)
(25%) (80%)
KLCI
PSEi

STI

MYR
SET
Hang Seng
Euro Stoxx 600

TWD
VN Index
TAIEX

THB
ASX200
Nikkei 225

S&P 500

KOSPI

HKD

JPY
INR

PHP
CSI 300

IDX

CNY

SGD
VND

IDR

KRW
AUD
Nifty 50

Brent

NEWC5500

Iron ore
ICI-4

NEWC6000

Gold

Nickel
Copper

Zinc
Aluminium
PLV HCC
Qinhuangdao 5500
Henry Hub

Asia LNG
Equities FX O&G Coal Metals

1 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as at 31-Mar 2024
(a) FX denominated in terms of local currency change compared to USD
Source: AME, FactSet, IHS
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Equities, FX, and commodities performance (cont’d)

Equity and FX Commodities and other

30 day 30 day
Spot 2024YTD 2023 2022 2021 Spot 2024YTD 2023 2022 2021
perf. perf.
Indices Energy
ASX200 7,897 2% 4% 8% (5%) 13%
CSI 300 3,537 (0%) 3% (11%) (22%) (5%) Brent (US$/bbl) 87 5% 14% (10%) 10% 50%
Euro Stoxx 600 520 4% 10% 16% (14%) 20%
Henry Hub (US$/mmbtu) 1.54 1% (39%) (27%) (8%) 62%
Hang Seng 16,541 (0%) (3%) (14%) (15%) (14%)
IDX 7,289 (0%) 0% 6% 4% 10% Asia LNG (US$/mmbtu) 9.45 (12%) (44%) (50%) 9% 247%
Nifty 50 22,327 (0%) 3% 20% 4% 24%
Nikkei 225 40,369 1% 21% 28% (9%) 5% NEWC6000 (US$/t) 129 (0%) (12%) (64%) 138% 111%
KOSPI 2,747 4% 3% 19% (25%) 4%
NEWC5500 (US$/t) 90 (9%) (4%) (31%) 29% 105%
KLCI 1,531 (0%) 5% (3%) (5%) (4%)
PSEi 6,904 (0%) 7% (2%) (8%) (0%) Qinhuangdao 5500 (US$/t) 132 - - (25%) 57% 6%
S&P 500 5,254 2% 10% 24% (19%) 27%
ICI-4 (US$/t) 55 (5%) (5%) (36%) 43% 43%
STI 3,224 3% (1%) (0%) 4% 10%
SET 1,378 1% (3%) (15%) 1% 14% HCC PLV (US$/t) 245 (22%) (20%) 6% (19%) 250%
TAIEX 20,294 7% 13% 27% (22%) 24%
VN Index 1,284 2% 14% 12% (33%) 36% Metals
(a)
Currencies
Aluminium (US$/t) 2,270 6% (3%) (1%) (16%) 42%
AUD 1.53 (0%) (4%) 1% (7%) (6%)
CNY 7.23 (0%) (2%) (2%) (8%) 3% Copper (US$/lb) 3.96 4% 3% 1% (13%) 25%
HKD 7.83 0% (0%) (0%) (0%) (1%)
Gold (US$/oz) 2,217 9% 8% 13% (0%) (3%)
IDR 15,855 (1%) (3%) 1% (8%) (1%)
INR 83.40 (1%) (0%) (1%) (10%) (2%) Iron (US$/t) 110 (13%) (20%) 23% (1%) (28%)
JPY 151 (1%) (7%) (6%) (13%) (10%)
KRW 1,346 (1%) (4%) (2%) (6%) (9%) Nickel (US$/lb) 7.60 (4%) 1% (46%) 45% 27%

MYR 4.73 0% (3%) (4%) (5%) (3%) Zinc (US$/lb) 1.08 (0%) (9%) (13%) (17%) 33%
PHP 56.22 (0%) (1%) 1% (8%) (6%)
SGD 1.35 (0%) (2%) 2% 1% (2%) US Treasury yield
THB 36.49 (1%) (6%) 1% (4%) (10%)
3y US Treasury (%) 4.41% 8 40 18 328 79
TWD 32.00 (1%) (4%) 0% (10%) 2%
VND 24,795 (1%) (2%) (3%) (3%) 1% 10y US Treasury (%) 4.20% 2 32 32 237 59

2 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as at 31-Mar 2024
(a) FX denominated in terms of local currency change compared to USD
Source: AME, FactSet, IHS
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Energy price performance since 2020

Oil (US$/bbl) Gas (US$/mmbtu) Coal (US$/t)

135 60 720

115 50 600

95 40 480

75 30 360

55 20 240

35 10 120

15 - -
Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21 Feb-22 Oct-22 Jul-23 Mar-24 Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21 Feb-22 Oct-22 Jul-23 Mar-24 Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21 Feb-22 Oct-22 Jul-23 Mar-24

NEWC6000 NEWC5500
Brent Henry Hub Asia LNG Qinhuangdao 5500 ICI-4
HCC PLV

Spot 30d 2024YTD 2023 2022 2021 Spot 30d 2024YTD 2023 2022 2021 Spot 30d 2024YTD 2023 2022 2021

NEWC6000 129 (0%) (12%) (64%) 138% 111%

Henry Hub 1.54 1% (39%) (27%) (8%) 62% NEWC5500 90 (9%) (4%) (31%) 29% 105%
Brent 87 5% 14% (10%) 10% 50% Q5500 132 - - (25%) 57% 6%
ICI-4 55 (5%) (5%) (36%) 43% 43%
Asia LNG(a) 9.45 (12%) (44%) (50%) 9% 247% HCC PLV 245 (22%) (20%) 6% (19%) 250%

3 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as at 31-Mar 2024
(a) Asia LNG data shown daily until 31-Dec 2020, then monthly
Source: AME, FactSet, IHS
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Deutsche Bank macro research forecasts

UST yield forecasts (%) Real GDP growth (% YoY) Inflation (% YoY)
Current Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 2021 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2021 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E

2y 4.63 4.30 4.05 3.90 Asia Asia

5y 4.25 4.05 3.95 3.85 China 8.4% 3.0% 5.2% 4.7% 4.5% China 0.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5%

10y 4.27 4.20 4.20 4.15 Hong Kong 6.5% (3.7%) 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% Hong Kong 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0%

30y 4.44 4.55 4.60 4.60 India 9.4% 6.5% 7.7% 6.2% 6.2% India 5.1% 6.7% 5.7% 4.6% 4.5%

Indonesia 3.7% 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% Indonesia 1.6% 4.2% 3.7% 3.0% 3.0%

Japan 2.6% 0.9% 1.9% 0.6% 1.3% Japan (0.3%) 2.5% 3.3% 2.5% 2.2%

Malaysia 3.3% 8.7% 3.7% 4.0% 4.5% Malaysia 2.5% 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 3.2%

Philippines 5.7% 7.6% 5.6% 5.6% 6.0% Philippines 3.9% 5.8% 6.0% 3.8% 3.5%

Singapore 9.7% 3.8% 1.1% 2.6% 2.7% Singapore 2.3% 6.1% 4.8% 2.8% 2.4%

South Korea 4.3% 2.6% 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% South Korea 2.5% 5.1% 3.6% 2.5% 2.0%

Sri Lanka 4.2% (7.3%) (2.3%) 3.0% 3.5% Sri Lanka 5.9% 45.9% 20.5% 5.3% 5.8%

Taiwan 6.6% 2.6% 1.3% 3.7% 2.6% Taiwan 2.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 1.9%

Thailand 1.6% 2.5% 1.9% 2.5% 3.2% Thailand 1.2% 6.1% 1.3% 1.0% 2.3%

Vietnam 2.6% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.5% Vietnam 1.8% 3.2% 3.3% 4.0% 4.0%

Rest of world Rest of world

Australia 5.6% 3.8% 2.1% 1.5% 2.0% Australia 0.8% 2.9% 6.6% 5.6% 3.4%

Euroland 5.9% 3.5% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% Euroland 2.6% 8.4% 5.4% 2.4% 2.0%

US 5.8% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1% US 4.7% 8.0% 4.1% 2.9% 2.4%

Global 6.1% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% Global 4.1% 8.7% 6.9% 5.3% 4.0%

4 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Source: Deutsche Bank Research as at 31-Mar 2024
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Commodity price update

Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Commodity price update

Spot as % Commodity performance 2024YTD

Spot Forward Forward 2022 % 2023 2024YTD
Commodity Unit 2020 2021 2022 2023 of forward
(31-Mar-24) 2024 2025 change % change % change
2024
Brent 14%
Iron ore US$/t 156 113 111 136 110 116 102 (1%) 23% (20%) 94%
LiOH seaborne 56.5% 10%
PLV HCC US$/t 102 357 290 307 245 271 271 (19%) 6% (20%) 90%
LC seaborne 99.5% 10%
Coal

NEWC6000 US$/t 81 170 404 146 129 134 142 138% (64%) (12%) 96%
Gold 8%
ICI-4 US$/t 44 63 90 58 55 - - 43% (37%) (5%) -
Alumina 7%
Alumina US$/t 306 362 330 345 370 - - (9%) 5% 7% -

Silver 3%
Aluminium US$/t 1,978 2,806 2,361 2,336 2,270 2,330 2,496 (16%) (1%) (3%) 97%

Copper 3%
Copper US$/lb 3.51 4.40 3.80 3.84 3.96 4.01 4.09 (13%) 1% 3% 99%
Base

China NPI 3%
China NPI(a) US$/lb 6.41 7.55 8.06 5.45 5.59 - - 7% (32%) 3% -

Nickel 1%
Nickel US$/lb 7.54 9.42 13.63 7.53 7.60 7.65 8.03 45% (45%) 1% 99%

Zinc US$/lb 1.24 1.65 1.37 1.20 1.08 1.11 1.13 (17%) (13%) (9%) 98% Cobalt (1%)

Cobalt US$/lb 15 32 23 13 13 15 16 (27%) (44%) (1%) 87% Aluminium (3%)

Lithium ICI-4 (5%)

US$/t 8,043 43,659 75,305 13,589 14,884 - - 72% (82%) 10% -
Battery

carbonate(b)
Lithium
US$/t 7,354 32,803 75,450 12,744 14,054 - - 130% (83%) 10% - Zinc (9%)
hydroxide(c)

Spodumene(d) US$/t 390 1,650 6,401 1,300 940 - - 288% (80%) (28%) - NEWC6000 (12%)

Gold US$/oz 1,893 1,828 1,820 2,062 2,217 2,268 2,100 (0%) 13% 8% 98%
Precious

Iron ore (20%)

Silver US$/oz 26 23 24 24 25 25 26 4% (1%) 3% 98% PLV HCC (20%)

Oil

Brent US$/bbl 52 78 86 77 87 84 78 10% (10%) 14% 104% Spodumene 6% China (28%)

5 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a) Converted from CNY/mtu to US$/lb based on 13% China VAT rate and USDCNY = 6.70
(b) China lithium carbonate 99.5%
(c) China lithium hydroxide monohydrate 56.5%
(d) Spodumene 6% FOB Australia
Source: Bloomberg, AME, FactSet, CRU
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Quarterly commodity price performance

2021 2022 2023

Commodities Unit Spot 31-Mar-24 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2021 2022 2023 2024YTD
Iron ore US$/t 110 7% 31% (44%) (3%) 34% (19%) (14%) 18% 14% (8%) 9% 13% (28%) (1%) 23% (20%)

Coal

PLV HCC US$/t 245 10% 72% 96% (8%) 44% (38%) (8%) 6% 4% (22%) 43% (7%) 250% (19%) 6% (20%)

ICI4 US$/t 55 3% 40% 67% (42%) 64% (16%) 8% (1%) (20%) (28%) 11% 1% 43% 43% (37%) (5%)

NEWC6000 US$/t 129 20% 40% 58% (26%) 53% 49% 12% 1% (56%) (36%) 8% (9%) 111% 138% (64%) (12%)

Base

Alumina US$/t 333 (8%) 4% 61% (21%) 34% (24%) (8%) (4%) 11% (7%) 2% (2%) 19% (9%) 5% 7%

Aluminium US$/t 2,270 12% 14% 15% (2%) 25% (31%) (9%) 9% (1%) (12%) 10% 1% 42% (16%) (1%) (3%)

Copper US$/lb 3.96 14% 7% (3%) 6% 7% (20%) (4%) 11% 7% (8%) (1%) 3% 25% (13%) 1% 3%

China NPI(a) US$/lb 5.59 3% 11% 18% (13%) 30% (15%) (5%) 1% (15%) (1%) 9% (21%) 18% 7% (32%) 3%

Nickel US$/lb 7.60 (3%) 12% (1%) 16% 55% (32%) (3%) 41% (21%) (12%) (9%) (11%) 25% 45% (45%) 1%

Zinc US$/lb 1.08 3% 7% 3% 21% 17% (25%) (4%) 2% (4%) (20%) 12% - 33% (17%) (13%) (9%)

Battery

Cobalt US$/lb 13 57% (1%) 5% 32% 17% (14%) (21%) 0% (33%) (4%) 0% (13%) 119% (27%) (44%) (1%)

Lithium carbonate US$/t 14,884 67% (1%) 102% 61% 79% (9%) 1% 5% (56%) 30% (46%) (40%) 443% 72% (82%) 10%

Lithium hydroxide US$/t 14,054 47% 32% 88% 23% 133% (7%) (2%) 8% (39%) (7%) (49%) (41%) 346% 130% (83%) 10%

Spodumene US$/t 940 38% 11% 141% 14% 98% 52% 0% 28% (21%) (31%) (7%) (60%) 323% 288% (80%) (28%)

Precious

Gold US$/oz 2,217 (9%) 3% (1%) 4% 7% (6%) (8%) 7% 8% (3%) (4%) 12% (3%) (0%) 13% 8%

Silver US$/oz 25 (9%) 6% (18%) 4% 7% (17%) (4%) 23% (0%) (6%) 1% 3% (13%) 4% (1%) 3%

O&G

Brent US$/bbl 87 23% 16% 4% (2%) 39% 10% (21%) (3%) (7%) (12%) 28% (19%) 50% 10% (10%) 14%

Henry Hub US$/mmbtu 1.54 7% 50% 48% (32%) 43% 20% 11% (38%) (40%) 19% 8% (6%) 62% (8%) (29%) (39%)

6 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024. Spodumene 6%, LiOH 56.5%, LC 99.5%
(a) Converted from CNY/mtu to US$/lb based on 13% China VAT rate and USDCNY = 6.70
Source: Bloomberg, AME, FactSet, CRU
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Metals

Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Gold
Annual avg. (US$/oz)(a)
2014 1,267
2015 1,161
2016 1,248
2017 1,256
3,000 2018 1,269
2019 1,392
2020 1,773
2021 1,800
2022 1,798
2023 1,940
2024YTD 2,080
2,500 Since 2014 1,506
Spot (31-Mar-24) 2,217

2,380
2,324
2,268
2,194
2,141
2,000 2,100
2,025 2,050
US$/oz

1,500

1,000

500
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 2026 2026 2027 2027 2028 LT 2028
(real)
Gold (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank

7 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a) Average calculated based on the weekly prices
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Silver
Annual avg. (US$/oz)(a)
2014 19.07
2015 15.68
2016 17.05
2017 17.03
40 2018 15.73
2019 16.17
2020 20.51
2021 25.14
35 2022 21.77
2023 23.41
2024YTD 23.41
Since 2014 19.26
Spot (31-Mar-24) 24.54
30
27.34 27.60
26.33
25.10
25
25.00 25.00
24.00
US$/oz

23.00
20

15

10

-
2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 2026 2026 2027 2027 2028 LT 2028
(real)
Silver (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank

8 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a) Average calculated based on the weekly prices
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Base metals

Aluminium Copper
4,000 Aluminium (US$/t) 8 Copper (US$/t)
Spot (31-Mar-24) 2,270 Spot (31-Mar-24) 3.96
3,500
6
3,000 4.54 4.54
2,625 2,676 2,550 4.26
3.95
2,375
2,500 4
2,605 2,692
US$/lb

US$/lb
2,496 4.01 4.09 4.10 4.08
2,000 2,330
2
1,500

1,000 -
2014 2015
2014 2016
2015 2017
2016 2018
2017 2019
2018 2020
2019 2021
2020 2022
2021 2023
2022 2024
2023 2025
2024 2026
2025 2027
2026 2028LT2028
2027 2014 2015
2014 2016
2015 2017
2016 2018
2017 2019
2018 2020
2019 2021
2020 2022
2021 2023
2022 2024
2023 2025
2024 2026
2025 2027
2026 2028LT2028
2027
(real) (real)
Aluminium (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank Copper (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank

Nickel Zinc
25 Nickel (US$/t) 2.2 Zinc (US$/t)
Spot (31-Mar-24) 7.60 Spot (31-Mar-24) 1.08

20
1.8

15
1.4 1.21 1.21
9.23
US$/lb

US$/lb

8.16 1.15 1.16

10 7.26 7.26

8.71 1.0
5 7.65 8.03 8.36 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.15

- 0.6
2014 2015
2014 2016
2015 2017
2016 2018
2017 2019
2018 2020
2019 2021
2020 2022
2021 2023
2022 2024
2023 2025
2024 2026
2025 2027
2026 2028LT2028
2027 2014 2015
2014 2016
2015 2017
2016 2018
2017 2019
2018 2020
2019 2021
2020 2022
2021 2023
2022 2024
2023 2025
2024 2026
2025 2027
2026 2028LT2028
2027
(real) (real)
Nickel (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank Zinc (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank

9 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Aluminium

Alumina Aluminium Alumina/Aluminum

Annual avg. (US$/t)(a) Annual avg. (US$/t)(a) 35% Annual avg. %(a)
700
2014 329 4,000 2014 1,867 2014 18%
2015 301 2015 1,664 2015 18%
2016 253 2016 1,607 2016 16%
650 2017 354 2017 1,973 2017 18%
2018 473 2018 2,112 2018 22%
2019 332 2019 1,792 2019 18%
2020 271 3,500 2020 1,704 2020 16%
600 2021 330 2021 2,481 30% 2021 13%
2022 364 2022 2,713 2022 13%
2023 345 2023 2,250 2023 15%
2024YTD 367 2024YTD 2,192 2024YTD 17%
550 Since 2014 336 Since 2014 2,020 Since 2014 17%
Spot (31-Mar-24) 370 Spot (31-Mar-24) 2,270 Spot (31-Mar-24) 16%
3,000

500 25%

US$/lb
US$/lb

2,676
US$/lb

2,625 2,550
450 2,500
2,375

400 20%
365 365
355
2,000
350

15%
300 15%
14%
1,500 14%

250

200 1,000 10%

(Real)

(Real)

(Real)
2023
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

2024
2025
2026
2027

2024

2017
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

2025
2026
2027

2014
2015
2016

2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2020
2022
2023
2024
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2020
2022
2023
2024
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028 2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2020
2022
2023
2024
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
LT

LT

LT
Alumina (historical) Deutsche Bank Alumina (historical) Deutsche Bank Alumina/Aluminium historical Deutsche Bank

10 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a) Average calculated based on weekly prices
Source: CRU, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Nickel

Forecast (US$/lb) Nickel spot

Nickel (US$/t)
Nickel Notes 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 25 Spot (31-Mar-24) 7.60

Forward curve 7.65 8.03 8.36 8.71 20

Deutsche Bank 7.26 8.16 9.23 -

15

Annual avg. sulphate premium and nickel spot (US$/t)

US$/lb
10

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024YTD
5
Sulphate premium 1,965 1,672 3,019 1,891 1,083 799 3,013 (1,505) (2,597) (1,185)
-
Nickel spot 11,879 9,635 10,469 13,181 13,944 13,860 18,453 26,221 21,722 16,834 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

% of LME price 17% 17% 29% 14% 8% 6% 16% (6%) (12%) (7%)

Nickel sulphate premium China NPI (8-12%)(a)

Nickel sulphate (US$/t) China NPI (US$/t
Spot (31-Mar-24) 555 Spot (31-Mar-24) 5.59
15,000 60% 14 140%

40% 12 120%
10,000
10 100%
20%
5,000
8 80%
-
US$/t

US$/lb

- 6 60%
(20%)
4 40%
(5,000)
(40%)
2 20%

(10,000) (60%) - -
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
AME Nickel sulphate premium Nickel sulphate as % of Ni spot China NPI (8-12%) NPI as % of Ni spot

11 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a) CNY/mtu to US$/lb based on the following formula: CNY/mtu * 100 / (1 + 13%) / 6.39 / 2,204.6 = US$/lb | USD/CNY = 6.63, 2,204.6lbs = 1 tonne
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, AME, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Battery metals

Cobalt Spodumene
50 Cobalt price (US$/lb) 7,000 Spodumene (US$/t)
Spot (31-Mar-24) 12.9 Spot (31-Mar-24) 940
6,000
40
5,000 4,500
4,000
30
US$/lb

4,000

US$/t
20 15.88 3,000
13.61 13.61
18.99 2,000
17.04
10 14.75 15.88
1,000

- -
LT LT
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
(real) (real)
(a)
Cobalt (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank Spodumene (historical) Deutsche Bank

Lithium carbonate Lithium hydroxide

Lithium carbonate price (US$/t) Lithium hydroxide (US$/t)
Spot (31-Mar-24) 14,884 90,000 Spot (31-Mar-24) 14,054
90,000
80,000 80,000
70,000 70,000
60,000 60,000
US$/t 45,000
42,000
US$/t

50,000 50,000 40,000

35,000
40,000 40,000
30,000 30,000
20,000 20,000
10,000 10,000
- -
LT LT
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
(real) (real)
(b)
(c)
Lithium carbonate (historical) Deutsche Bank
Lithium hydroxide (historical) Deutsche Bank

12 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024. Spodumene 6%, LiOH 56.5%, LC 99.5%
(a) Spodumene 6% - Australia
(b) Lithium carbonate – China spot
(c) Lithium hydroxide – China spot
Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Coal

Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Key thermal coal benchmarks

Historical prices Historical thermal coal prices

500
(a) 2024 %
Avg. price (US$/t) 2022 2023 Spot
YTD change 450

NEWC6000 361 174 128 129 (12%) 400

NEWC5500 177 106 95 90 (4%) 350
Qinhuangdao 5500 169 144 132 132 0% 300

US$ /t
ICI4 86 63 57 55 (5%)
250
Richards Bay 213 99 86 92 9%
200

150 132
129
100 90
92
50 55
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
NEWC6000 NEWC5500 Qinhuangdao 5500 ICI4 Richards Bay

Historical discount Premium / (discount) to NEWC6000

Premium / 80%
2024
(discount) to 2022 2023 Spot
YTD
NEWC6000 60%
NEWC5500 (50%) (36%) (26%) (30%)
40%
Qinhuangdao 5500 (52%) (13%) 3% 2%
20%
ICI4 (75%) (62%) (56%) (57%) 2%
Richards Bay (40%) (39%) (33%) (28%) -
(28%)
(20%)
(30%)
(40%)
(57%)
(60%)

(80%)

(100%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
NEWC5500 Qinhuangdao 5500 ICI4 Richards Bay

13 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a) Average calculated based on the weekly prices
Source: AME, FactSet
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Thermal coal: NEWC6000 vs. NEWC5500 vs. IC1-4

500
Annual avg. NEWC5500 % ICI-4 %
NEWC6000 NEWC5500 ICI-4
(US$/t)(a) NEWC6000 NEWC6000
2014 71 60 n/a 85% n/a
450 2015 59 46 30 78% 51%
2016 65 54 32 83% 49%
2017 88 72 43 81% 49%
2018 107 72 42 67% 39%
400
2019 78 55 35 71% 45%
2020 60 46 29 76% 49%
2021 136 85 67 62% 49%
350 2022 359 177 87 49% 24%
2023 173 106 63 61% 36%
2024YTD 127 96 57 75% 45%
Since 2014 120 78 47 65% 39%
300 Spot (31-Mar-24) 129 90 55 70% 43%
US$/t

250

200

142 140 137

150 134

130
100 120
100

50

-
LT
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
(real)
Thermal (NEWC6000) NEWC5500 ICI-4 Forward curve Deutsche Bank

14 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a) Average calculated based on weekly prices
Source: AME, Bloomberg, FactSet, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Metallurgical coal

800
Annual avg. SSCC % PCI %
PLV HCC SSCC LV PCI Diff.(b)
(US$/t)(a) HCC HCC
2014 115 80 95 70% 82% 12%
2015 88 69 73 78% 83% 5%
700 2016 147 88 97 60% 66% 6%
2017 192 110 122 57% 63% 6%
2018 204 123 134 60% 66% 6%
2019 172 90 107 52% 62% 10%
2020 122 71 79 58% 65% 7%
600 2021 264 180 191 68% 72% 4%
2022 364 282 329 77% 90% 13%
2023 295 163 217 55% 73% 19%
2024YTD 306 149 163 49% 53% 5%
500 Since 2014 195 127 142 65% 73% 8%
Spot (31-Mar-24) 245 146 147 60% 60% 1%
US$/t

400

300 271 271

229 229
255
240
200

190

100

-
LT
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
(real)

PLV HCC SSCC LV PCI Forward curve Deutsche Bank

15 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
(a)
(b)
Average calculated based on the weekly prices
Diff. = PCI % HCC minus SSCC % HCC
Source: AME, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Iron ore and steel

Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

Iron ore and steel

Iron ore Metallurgical coal

Iron Ore (US$/t) 800 (US$/mt) PLV HCC LV PCI
300 Spot (31-Mar-24) 110 Spot (31-Mar-24) 245 147
700
250
600
200 500
US$/t

US$/t
150 119 115 400
100 271 271
90 300 229 229
100
116 200
102 93 255 240
50 90
100 190
- -
LT LT
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
(real) (real)
Iron ore (historical) Forward curve Deutsche Bank PLV HCC SSCC LV PCI Forward curve Deutsche Bank

HRC: Global HRC: Asia

2,500 1,250

2,000 1,000

US$/t
US$/t

1,500 750

1,000 500

500 250

- -
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Midwest USA Germany Italy CIS Brazil Vietnam China Japan FOB India

16 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: AME, CRU, FactSet, Deutsche Bank Research
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

M&M share price performance

Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

M&M share price performance 2024YTD

Large caps & iron ore Aluminium

Anglo American (1%) Alumina 57%

Large cap (majors)

Glencore (8%)
China Hongqiao 38%
Rio Tinto (10%)

BHP (12%) Chalco 27%

APAC
Vale (21%)
NALCO 15%
First Quantum 34%

Antofagasta 21% Press Metal (3%)

Large cap (diversified)

Teck 11%
Hindalco (9%)
Freeport 10%

Vedanta Aluminium Bahrain 10%

5%

Grupo Mexico 4% AMAG 3%

EMEA
Boliden (5%)
Granges (0%)
South32 (10%)

Cleveland Cliffs 11% Hydro (13%)

Mineral Resources 1%
Century Aluminium 27%
Fortescue (11%)
Iron ore

Americas

African Rainbow (18%) Kaiser Aluminium 26%

Mount Gibson (22%)

Constellium 11%
Kumba (25%)

Ferrexpo Alcoa (1%)

(52%)

17 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: FactSet
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

M&M share price performance 2024YTD (cont’d)

Base metals Selected nickel

CMOC 56%
Amman Mineral Nickel Industries 17%
34%
MMG 33%
Timah 29% Harum Energy 1%
CNMC 27%
Jiangxi Copper 21% Vale Indonesia (6%)
Nickel Industries 17%
Baiyin Nonferrous 7% Antam (6%)

Asia
CITIC Metal 4%
Asia

Harum Energy 1% Merdeka Battery M (12%)

Vale Indonesia (6%)
ANTAM (6%)
Harita Nickel (13%)
Hindustan Zinc (8%)
Korea Zinc (9%)
Philex Mining (9%) Lygend R&T (17%)
Merdeka Battery M (12%)
Harita Nickel (13%) Nickel Asia (27%)
Merdeka (16%)
Nickel Asia (27%) Panoramic 0%
Aurelia Metals 41%
Sandfire 21% IGO
Australia

(22%)
Aeris Resources

Australia
7%
Metals Acquisition Ltd 4% QLD Pacific Metals (24%)
IGO (22%)
29Metals (42%)
Chalice Mining (36%)
Atalaya 7%
EMEA

Eramet (1%)
KGHM (7%) Poseidon Nickel (46%)
Aurubis (12%)
Taseko 56% Canada Nickel 23%
North America

Capstone 34%
Hudbay 30% FPX
Americas

7%
Ivanhoe Mines 26%
Southern Copper 24% Giga Metals (3%)
Lundin 15%
Minsur 11% Talon Metals (25%)
Nexa Resources 0%

18 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: FactSet
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

M&M share price performance 2024YTD (cont’d)

Gold: Majors and APAC Gold: EMEA and Americas

AngloGold Ashanti 20% IAMGold 35%

Majors

Agnico Eagle 11% West African Resources 27%

Barrick (8%)
Perseus 16%
Newmont (13%)

Africa
Centamin 13%
J Resources 139%
ANTAM (6%) Resolute (3%)
Asia

Merdeka (16%) Endeavour Mining (8%)

Archi (16%) B2Gold (15%)
China Gold Intl. 48% Harmony Gold 32%

South
Africa
Zhongjin Gold 33%
Gold Fields 9%
Zijin Mining 23%
Sibanye-Stillwater (13%)
Yintai Gold 21%
China

ChiFeng 17% Equinox Gold 27%

Zhaojin Mining 9% OceanaGold 20%
Shandong Gold 7% New Gold 19%
Chengtun Mining (0%) Buenaventura 16%
Pengxin Intl. (5%)
Coeur Mining 16%
Ramelius 10%
Lundin 15%
Northern Star 6%

Americas
Silver Lake 4% Alamos Gold 12%
Genesis Minerals 4% Kinross 4%
Australia

De Grey 1% Centerra 1%
Regis (8%) Hecla Mining 0%
Evolution (10%)
Penoles (5%)
St Barbara (17%)
Pan American Silver (6%)
Gold Road (20%)
Chalice Mining (36%) Fresnillo (21%)
Greatland Gold (37%) SSR Mining (58%)

19 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: FactSet
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

M&M share price performance 2024YTD (cont’d)

Coal Lithium
Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Albemarle (9%)

Large
24%

cap
MMC 21% SQM (9%)
Coal India
Arcadium (37%)
15% Tianqi (16%)

Asia
Asia

China Shenhua Energy 15% Ganfeng (19%)

Yanzhou Coal 11% Tibet Summit (22%)
China Coal Energy 7% Mineral Resources 1%
Shougang Fushan
Azure Minerals (1%)
(7%) Pilbara Minerals (3%)

Australia
Banpu (18%) Wildcat (6%)
Bukit Asam 22% IGO (22%)
Adaro 13% Liontown Resources (29%)
ABM
Core Lithium (38%)
12% Delta Lithium (39%)
Indika 4% Global Lithium (59%)
Indonesia

ITMG 4% Sanvannah Resources 60%

GEMS 2% Kodal Minerals 12%
Bumi Resources
Premier African Minerals 4%
(1%) Vulcan Energy 1%
Geo Energy (1%)

EMEA
AVZ Minerals 0%
Baramulti (3%) Leo Lithium -
Adaro Minerals (4%) AMG Lithium (8%)
Bayan (5%)
Rock Tech Lithium (13%)
Atlantic Lithium (15%)
Toba Bara (14%) Zinnwald Lithium (16%)
Coronado (29%) Andrada Mining (18%)
Yancoal 6% Frontier Lithium 9%
Lithium Americas 7%
Australia

Whitehaven (5%) ioneer 7%

North America
New Hope (10%) Patriot Battery Metals (15%)
Exxaro (17%) Winsome Resources (16%)
Stanmore Resources (20%) Critical Elements (30%)
TerraCom (43%)
Anson Resources (36%)
Standard Lithium (40%)
Bowen Coking Coal (53%) Sayona Mining (45%)
EMEA

Alliance (5%) Green Technology Metals (51%)

JSW SA (12%) Piedmont Lithium (53%)
Thungela Resources (21%)
Lithium Power International 3%
-
South America

Argosy Minerals
Peabody (0%) Lithium Argentina (13%)
Americas

Warrior Met Coal (0%) Argentina Lithium (25%)

Ramaco (2%) Latin Resources (35%)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (2%)
Galan Lithium (40%)
Atlas Lithium (46%)
Arch Coal (3%) Lake Resources (49%)
Consol Energy (17%) Sigma (58%)

20 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: FactSet
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

M&M share price performance 2024YTD (cont’d)

Rare earths Potash

Brazilian Rare Earths 29%
Highfield Resources 29%
Arafura 24%
Iluka 9%
Zangge 24%
ASM 9%
Pensana Rare Earths 8%
Emmerson 14%
ITAFOS 2%
Vital Metals -
Lynas (21%) ICL Group 6%

MP Materials (28%)
Peak Rare Earths (44%) K+S 1%

Qinghai Salt Lake 1%

Graphite Danakali 0%

NOVONIX 17%
Focus Graphite 3% Arab Potash (1%)
Graphite One -
Magnis Energy -
Talga (7%) Nutrien (1%)
Walkabout (7%)
Nouveau Monde (10%)
Black Rock Mining (14%) Mosaic (9%)
Northern Graphite (20%)
Syrah (22%)
South Star (27%) Asia Potash (26%)
Renascor Resources (35%)
NextSource Materials (36%)
GrafTech (37%) Compass Minerals (38%)
Tirupati Graphite (66%)

21 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: FactSet
81nidZpGqzkSDMpD

M&M share price performance 2024YTD (cont’d)

Steel: APAC Steel: Others

Nanjing Iron & Steel 27%
Baosteel 12% SSAB 3%
CITIC Pacific Steel 8%
Hunan Valin 3%
Xinyu Iron & Steel 1% ArcelorMittal (1%)
HBIS -
China

TISCO (4%)

Europe
Voestalpine (9%)
Shougang Concord Intl. (8%)
Maanshan Iron & Steel (8%)
Liuzhou Iron & Steel (10%) Salzgitter (14%)
Sansteel Minguang (12%)
Angang Steel (16%)
Chongqing Iron & Steel (16%) Swiss Steel (14%)
Daido Steel 21%
JFE 16%
Japan

Nippon Steel 14% Thyssenkrupp (21%)

Kobe Steel 13%
Sanyo Steel (15%) Acerinox (5%)
SeAH Holdings 1%

stainless
Korea

Europe
SeAH Besteel (8%)
Hyundai Steel (13%) Outokumpu (10%)
POSCO (16%)
Hsin Kuang Steel 7%
Taiwan

Yuen Cheng Stainless (11%) Aperam (11%)

China Steel (11%)
Hai Kwang Enterprise (18%)
Jindal Stainless 21% Steel Dynamics 26%
Jindal Steel & Power 14%
India

Tata Steel 12% Commercial Metals 17%

SAIL 9%
NMDC (4%)
JSW (6%) Nucor 14%
GJ Steel 5%
Thailand

Steel Public 3%
US
Asia Metals (2%) Cleveland Cliffs 11%
Nova Empire (8%)
Tata Steel Thailand (10%)
TimkenSteel
Vietnam

Hoa Phat Group 8% (5%)

Nam Kim Steel 4%
Hoa Sen Group 4% Stelco (11%)
CSC Steel 9%
Malaysia

Ann Joo Resources 5%

Malaysia Steel Works (3%) US Steel (16%)
Southern Steel (8%)
Lion Industries (11%)
Si /
Mn
Others

Bluescope Steel 2% OM Holdings (5%)

Krakatau Steel 1%

22 Deutsche Bank
Investment Bank
Note: Market data as of 31-Mar 2024
Source: FactSet