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    5 views26 pages

    Principles of Statistics Chapter 2

    Uploaded by

    islamaltarefe

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    Chapter 2 Probability Bel bef © Experiments 1s any process from w (outcomes) ave obtained - hich results which the outcomes feol with coy tainty - @® Random experiments is one can't be predic Ju Toss a Coin Examples ‘ 9. Roll adie Choosing at random 10 people and oe their heights - measure S or 2) ® Sample space { possible outcomes of an ex periment. The set of all Ex.4_ The sample Space of toss aq in one hime t's H: Head OQ = LT { } Ti Tail 2- The sample space of roll adie one time is re £1,2,3,45 55 of G Event: is a subset of the Sample space . ail é Types of event @ <: @ Simple event : consis F of one element - Example |n rolling a die, one Hime, there eve simple evewts, which ave: Eg, = it E,= Lt} Ey = {24 Es - LJ E, = 43] Eg = 6] O Gmpound even: omsist of two elements ov more. for example; in vollimg adie one tHme, Ahe Fotlowiag events ave compound: Ronis pe1{4u b} ce L 55 @ The events Er» f2,~-2 Fw ave Cerlleol mutually exclusive if VE =O fo E+ For example; the eumell El, Fo, & we mutually exclusive if + £, (Ep -o £, 6, =¢ EO) £3 = Bl ® Disjeint events ; Two events A ond B ave clisjommb if ANB =. @ Probability i Let IL be the sample space of an experiment wilh equally Likely outcomes, and A be an eweat dy of event FC ri) in SL, then the proba bility Is clefined by: P(A) = nf) n(n) _ number of elements in A ~ ww be of elements in >> Pro pevties A P(A): @® oS Pa) Ss! @ Pe)=9 @ P= @ Mb, Bs o( Ue) = re UGUBU .) p( Er) + P(Ed) + Pf (65) + <> - S416)) t=) ave mutually exe lusive , then 5 blue 5 gen le ermnge , Io yellow, 20 veol , 20 why be ancl 30 brown E: =X! A box contains 100 ball, One ball ie selected at ranclom fom the box. (what is the probability Phat the selected ball is 3 @ Whot is Ye Wrigher probability 7 Sey) R( green ball) = & = o0F (2) The higher probability ' P(broun ball) =32. 08 reen? Ex.2 In yalling adie one time, what 13 the probability ot ~_ om wen number: sol, Oey a A Acti an even number = Lz, 4,6 5 P(e bas XB Gnsioler an ree in which fwo dice ave rolled nsi . : The following events ave defined : AS “Me sum cf yumbers of two dite is B g. te = = = se = es fs grater than lo ‘ = = 1s less thay or equal 5 c; he = = 3 » Each of the two dice shows fhe same num bey, fe PCA), PCB), pc) andl HD). Sel. (34) Mamber of clemeuls tv the sample space is’ 2). xb = 6 2 36. Sample Space (-) Co) (y2) (v3) (L¥) (65) 9) 61) (a2) (23) (4) 5) (2) a)adGn °° G4 61) (62)(63) << (66) A ~ $0.8), (62), (15), (353), (w4) J onl) © P(A) = & i ef 66), (65), (54)) 2 0(B)-3 > PlB= 2 C =f, (62), (21), (3), (3), (64), (od, cat (2,3), (32) > n(c)= '9 De { On) 62). ba OY, ps 69} ) sate é oe, D)= A 3f > Plc)= 3 6 Count Method “hulnsbaten @ 35 oO Mal tipli cation Rule If there are ny Ways te do ex periment 1, and Ny ways fo do experiment 2, then 142. there ave MyXNy Way fo do both experiments Ex, @ The umber of 4 two times Ts In this case the sample space Ist yr pe Lae, AT ra, TTI Get atin e sample points in tossing “a coin 2 n(-O2)= 2x2 22 = 4 Teecliggam: 4 E& The number of the Sample points in tossing . Yr y tiwes 18 n(Q)y2 2 3) Me nuw ber of the sample goints in rolling adie y times ts wl) = 6h @ There ave two olrawers . One emlains (2 shirts, the other Contains F neckttles Then there ave [2 X4F=B4 ways fe Combine ashirt ond anecktie. ®ar } est consists of Io multiple choice guestions, (34) Ei , ‘ach question has 4 pessi ble answers. Then there ye cis ways fo answer the test [2| Addition Rule 1f Here fs th ways fo ob experiment 4, and Nz ways to ob experiment 2, thew periments Here ave nti, ways fo do one A the tio anol A CS major. Ex. () Theve ave 3 math. majors k one math major. How may vays there fo pie or cs major ° Ans. a f wags = ge4 = FO: @ You need te frave| in belween city A and B. You cin either fly, take a train or a bus . Theve ave 5 different tains and 10 buses - There ave 12 differewt Sights in between Aand ®. Yow many options do you have to get fom Ato B. sol. 4 of Ways -1245+105 24 B] Permu tation (37 @) A permutahion of n object taken 0 at atimet Is an ordered aWagements of n cbjech in ieee case(l) Without vepetitien n n-! n-2 Tt Qnd = rd 27 ! (eth n-th place place place place place > where nl is calleol the factorial of N. Ex: How many ways con arrange the letters Lab.c} sel. ae of ways Ss 3h = Sl = 3.215 6 ways dst place. 2nol place Brel place Permutations | ———~ c alc a =< eb ach Qq—s O bac b =o. — a bea c _ a ——— b cab “————_— h ————7 @ aba Case(2) with repetition 33] Ast_place Qnol place +++ nth place n n n > fh = AM eee Ex. Mow many Numbers of possible a letters cam be arrangest - (A) If the vepe tion fs not allowed sal: ef ways = 3f3 = 3! =6 (b) (fF the ve pe tition is alloweol = 2t SO, oh Ways = aPy = 3= @) A permutation of n objects taken r (rén)atatine. Is on ordered avramgememt of different objects in replaces . case(!) Without Yepebtion li! nh = HT To see this: [34] At place nel place (r-1) place place h n-1 n-(r2) n-(-1) ‘multiplication Yule =) )I te = (n\(wet) (n-(-») «(ovr ok ways n)( (net = nl (n-v)l Case(2) with repetition r nh = 0 % see Ing) Paps = ER n n " ynulti plication mle > tr w = arot ways = Me™ Ek How many 3-digib numbers can be Ve) found from bhe numbers; 2,3, 4,5 and F If the vepetition 15 not allowed bol. ~-P . 2! . 5! 2 543,20 = 60 fol. ae unys = 5h (ja 2 a or dst place Qnol place 3rl place 5 4 33 8h = SNF = 00 (2) 1f the repetition & allowed 3 $e of ways 2 52 5 = 125 or 4+ place Zrol- place 3 ed place = fy = 59:5 = 125 is) 5 5 Ex. bensider a horse race with ® horses. How many Ways are there to gamble on the placing (1st, 2nd, ard). t t Sel ate of ways = ah = 35 = - 846.50 or = 336 way Dal Combination (Ai) A combination is a Selection ef all or park of aset of objects, wi khout vegard to the order in which objects are selected: A combination of 1 objects taken F at a time is defined ast h nl (Me C= a nl = n(n-1) (n-2)--- 3.2.1 (n factorial ) where foal ol =! EX. A class consists of studeuts , how many Ways can we select a Committee consisk of 4 students . 4 Ge (5! she ah mys = Sy © GT Cis -HMl 16! a at wl sn ih (0 (SOT au «OF = (15)(H03) = 1365 23. Consicler the set of letHers fa, b, cf (42) (1) Permutation 2 leHers from the set. 38 = al. BLL af waar =é (3-D| ‘ bt 2nd Pormu ations 6 a be a p(ff}= 1 Pl A i) p(p) + PCB )= | fA. pf is the complement ° oe where @) pang) - pin —Plane) © plang). PlB- Pars) ® P( fue’) = PANY ) = 1 - PCAN) @ (ene) = p((pus))= '- p( AUB) fis Eyl Lop PCA)s 05, P(B)= 03 and MANG)-02 Fired : @ PCAUB) = pia) + P(B) - PIAA B) - 05 +03 - 0.2 @ POR) 2 1-PfA) = {- 0.5 © pce) = 1-8) = 1- ® PAR). Pla) - P(A08) [46] 205 - 02 = 43 (3) P(A UB) - Pl (Any) = I- P( ANB) J. 02 = 08 1— P(AUB) © P(e’) - P(@uB)) = ae ob = OY EXx2 Let P(A) = ong, P(B) = Ord ored pC ANE = 5 fod P(AUB) « Sp aan 8) = piay-P (ANB) o 5 = oF - P (408) > plane) = %2 _5 PlAuB)= PIA) + p(B) -— PIANBD - oF +02 — 02 ~ oF Ex. 4a] 30 cards gre numbered 1,2,3, ++. 30 . Acard ts olrawn from these cards . Find the probability Anat the number nr the card, Is divisible by 5 or 7. Sol. a(n) = 30 As The number aa olivisible by 5 25,1015 22/28.2h nae 6 9 A= Ss B= The number is divisible by # ={4, 14,2128] y n(B)= 4 > P(B)= 36 PCA or Be P(AUB)= p(&) + 2(B) = Lecause AYB ce — So 30 = en Jane | = Zo % Also, nore thab: p(#ae)=P(o) = ° PCAN B) = th atm 80% P(BOR) = p(B) — P(ANB) = p(B) pu ee M(B) 2 IA P/ANB) = IO = \. “The a probability of an event A given that another eC vewk B has occurred Is called a conditional prbbability and defined by PCAle) = PLANS) —providlesl_ tah p(B) #° p(B) If B given A, then P(BiA) - CAPE) provided thet P(A) +0 PCA) EX. Ro\t adie one Hime. What is the probability that the oblaineel number hs at mest 3 given that the vesulted number 's prime ? oo sol. (DR) = 6 Aa the oblaincal number 's of mist 3 = 41203} B = the resulted number 1's prime = fa, 3,5] > PcB)= */6 ang = 1232 > pian) = 2/6 We neeol PC AI 8). woo, erate r= RLAner_ 2. 2 pes) 316 863 — New sample space = ae J 2,3, 5] Gal => Pte resalteo! number's ot matt 3) = 2. 2 Suppose we roll two dice and record the vesult- | What is the probability that the sum of num bers foun cy dia cise (Bo) fe that Hey de shows an even number. fist sol: Note that — nlf) = 36 Baseol on the known event (bivst olie shows 0" _— number ) , the mew sample (2,1), (2.2), (2,32, G4). Neo = EA 1 Cigars (was (442 (5520 (6:1), (6:2), (63) (69> (65), 60) 2 elemenk Space Is! (52,28) From this sample Fh give " sam of num bers ee which are { (45), (6235 >) P ( sum of num bors is 1 = 2 ~ 18 first die shows an | jen waw bev The en EX.3 If p(a)e ot, P(B)=05 and P(AUB)~ 08. Fd 2 0) PE ATB) (2) P( BIA) (3) P(AIB) Sel) paypy- LLAN® p(B) where Ph UB = 9( (ANB) Ne De! Morgan Lew. 2 PCAOB oF = 1- piANB > p(AnB) = I- #8 = 0d row, PAI B)= 22 = 03 ob (2) P( BIA) = P(AOB) a ons P(A) a4 (5) PC ples) = PA 1 8) ._ PLA) = PCAOB) (Bd 1 -P(B) - o4 _ 0.2 1-06 ~ 22 a abs Ex, | Ph. D. graduate has applied for job with fae graduate feels he has Universities A and &- The from university a Gof, chance of feceiving an offer B.If he vece| Ves A, and So] chance from university belives Mot he se of fer from university A. him an otfer On offer from university Bs he an Bo]. chance of receiving on © What is the prob. Hak both universities will make @ what ts the poo. that at least one univ. wil = hat 1s the prod. © If he YeCejves ah offer from univ. B,w that he will wot feceive an offer fom univ. A- Sel: paleo. , P(B)= 0-8 » P( AlB)= 08 PCAIB)= OB = pcAoB) e(B) (1) PC AAR) = 2 03 = eran) => PIANB) = 0.4 es (2) p(AUB) 2 mia) P(B)- PIANB) = 06405 — 4 Seo aie pane) enn) _ p(B) PLANB) (3) PCRIP)= “Gray” = Pi) ROB) ~ b= oO _ ol ~ o5 Ht Od © | ee cence (52) Two events A amd B are Culled) trolepenclent events iF ancl only iff p(AIB)= P(A) or PCBIA)= PLB) - Rea (Mul biplica tien Rule ) A and B are indopenolewt if: pcane) = Pla)» PCB) Two events To See this, From oleh(1), we have PLA)= Pats) . pcan 8) 5 PIA) PCB) +) Piang)= PIA). PCB) Remarlk Hemar\ If A and B ae inclpenoleut events, then» (1) (ANB) = PIA). PIB) (2) P(A B) = PIAS). PB) (> PCAN B) = PIA). PCBS) . Let P(AIB) = 04 , PIBIA)= 05 ond Pf)= oH - (1) Ave A ancl B independeut events ? Explain - Answer Yes Ieoause P(AIB) = ®(A) = 04 Q) Find P(B) Aus. P(B)= P(BIA)a of --- betawse AYB ave {wale pexdewh . (3) Rud P(AUR). Ans. P( AUB)= PAs P8)—OC RNB) by the. inde. a = Plas E(B) P(A). PLB) oh ¢05- (a4 x05) = oF - Bet Let A and B ave inolopenclewt eveuts such that r A) = 22(B) and P(AQB) = NB. Fed CK 08). Sol. 2. SSS Since AYB are indep. , them Pan 8). P(A). PIB) plane) = PIA) PIB) (vy indeP-) 1g = (29¢o)).P(B) = (0.4), (0.4 ce (01). (4) ovo (CBD) = 028 5 PIB oP -> P(r) = 2 PLB) 3 Ali ancl Sani appear for an interview for two vacancies - The prob.

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