Sarah and Rachel are headed to Aruba for a much needed break.

They have a flight departure scheduled for

Expected Travel time to the airport is 53 minutes, but it is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 5
uncertainties:

There is a 25% chance of bad weather. If the weather is bad, it will add time to the commute. The additional
with a mean of 8 minutes. Remember that the equation for a random time from an exponential distribution
where lambda is 1/mean and the P is the random cumulative probability. An example is shown in Cells P1-Q4

There is also the possiblity of encountering an accident that will slow down traffic. This is best shown as a dis
70% no accident (0 minutes)
25% minor accident (4 minutes)
3% major accident (15 minutes)
2% detour required (30 minutes)

After arriving at the airport, they have to park and take the shuttle to the terminal. This time is uniformly dist
minutes and a maximum of 25 minutes.
Once at the airport, they have to get tickets and make their way to security. This time is normally distributed
standard deviation of 2 minutes.

The time to proceed through security is best represented by the discrete distribution below:
10% 4 minutes
20% 8 minutes
30% 12 minutes
30% 15 minutes
10% 30 minutes

Time to proceed from security to the gate is a constant 8 minutes.

Once at the gate, the arrival time of the incoming plane (that they will take to Aruba) is also uncertain. The d
is normally distributed with a mean of -3 (3 minutes ahead of schedule) and a standard deviation of 5 minute
the boarding time will be as scheduled. If the plane arrives late, the boarding time will shift later by the sam

What time is the latest that Rachel and Sarah should leave for the airport to have a 98% chance of on time
way data table to figure out the best departure time. Run the data table with 10,000 interations. Your answe
minute (e.g., 8:15 AM). You may need to use a little trial and error to narrow your data table down the the rig
ght departure scheduled for boarding at 9:20am next Tuesday. mean 8
ith a standard deviation of 5 minutes. There are also a lot of lamda 0.125
Cumulative Prob 0.861781
he commute. The additional time is exponentially distributed Value 15.83132
an exponential distribution is given by time = -ln(1-P)/lambda,
mple is shown in Cells P1-Q4.

c. This is best shown as a discrete distribution as shown below:

al. This time is uniformly distributed with a minimum of 15

time is normally distributed with a mean of 5 minutes and a

ution below:

uba) is also uncertain. The deviation from the scheduled arrival

andard deviation of 5 minutes. If the plane shows up early, then
me will shift later by the same amount of time.

ave a 98% chance of on time arrival for boarding? Use a two

000 interations. Your answer should be accurate down to the
r data table down the the right range for your decision variable.