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    New Scientist International Edition - 20 April 2024

    Uploaded by

    Gavin

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 52
    A Tay ae) 8 Leroi let BACKYARD IS TOO VARA asa J ‘ HOW PERSONALISED | DTU el ter TNT HELP TREAT CANCER fea NiOeTe Bn S [ize tol tela CONSPIRACY THEORIES, PN Fae iic TINNITUS Arevolutionary new understanding of hearing promises to stop Dur mee a el aU as THE HISTORY OF HYPOCHONDRIA BONOBOS AREN'T SO PEACEFUL AFTER ALL WHY DO HUMANS Remeron LIKE SPARKLY THINGS? fu ROLEX, ial ae . BETH KOIGI NEW ROLEX AWARDS LAUREATE Turning air into water. “If you have fou can have drinking water”. Tha is Beth Koigi’s motto This Keny as d a process for p water from ambient air. T ech crucial impact on people living in isolated, water-stressed areas. Her Rolex Award for Enterprise will enable her to install 10 solar-powered, air-to-water systems and supply up t0 5,000 ltr a day to refugee camps and 0 ‘ommunities in Kakuma in the Turkana of northern Kenya, #Perpetual W ROLEX Sl ampli-energy micro = \ rele pe = Doorn Peer) Selecte { Products PN STEN fone: Ff 20 Nba with huge performances *Compared to Pee We won't charge you a penny to trial hearing aids. ce OD See how well they work for you over 14 days. “celent rl 1. Have a free hearing test at your local Amplifon clini your audiologist, choose hearing aids best suited for you Try them out for 14 days with no obligation to buy 4, Simply buy or return the hearing aids amplifon £20 M&S E-GIFT CARD WHEN YOU NYS Ee OUR 14 DAY EREE TRIAL Peete r fO0u Plea snd quote NS200424 giving aval ress in order to qualify for thee-gift card, ‘across England & Wales ‘hearing ald al must be fken before 0th Api 2024 o rece 3 £20 MBS Eat Car. This fer applies to new customers onl. The quote reference must be stated and recorded correct in orce aly forte and cannot be changed lease alow upto 28 days for your © Mt Card toa. This week’s issue On the cover 32SSilencing tinnitus ‘Arevolutonary new understanding of hearing promisesto stop that ringing in your ears News ‘Emissions quandary Numbers now much carbon we can store dort add up 10 Parkinson's progress ‘Advance of the condtion may bestowed by antibody dug 12Exoticerystal Structure made onty ‘ofelectrons glimesed Inunprecedented dota Views 23 Comment Weneedto change he way ‘we think about exhaustion, saysAnty Arthur 24 The columnist MichaetMarshallon our ousinHom tuzonensis ‘26 Aperture ‘Martie gaftiin Malta ‘30 culture columnist Bethan Ackeriey enjoys ‘the apocalypse nFaliout aiLetters Howto randle the ‘demographic storm Brera SON Vol262 No3487 ‘Cover image: Paté ‘ee over Arctic permafrost snow anet emitter of greenhouse gas| ‘36 Wh our cosmic backyard istoo empty tomakesense 13 How personalised mini-tumours an help treat cancer 17 Chatbots can talk people ‘out of conspiracy theories 28 Thehistryof hypochondia 142onabos arent so peaceful afterall 47 Why do humans ike sparky things? 4o Features “Economies havea lot in common with ecosystems oreven Earth’s atmosphere” Features 32Silencing tinnitus Fresh insights into hearing could xtinius - andreverse some ypesof deafness 236Mind the cosmic gap) We ve na region space so empty thatit may break the awsot cosmology 40 |, Doyne Farmer interview ‘The comrplexty theorst an how toraticaly remake economics The back pages 448Stargazing athome The Lyrid meteor shower 45 Puzzles Tryourcrassword quick que and looicpuzzle| AG Almost the last word Why canaflyenterahome easly but no escape easly? 487 Tom Gauld for [New Scientist ‘cartoons’ take an the world ‘48 Feedback Thinking outside the box, lus drving a wece 20 April20ng|NewScientit|3 Elsewhere on New Scientist Unlocking the mind Dre ito the mysterles of the hhumanexperence wath this one-day masterclassexporing the forefront afbran research Jpinsix leading experts on 22 Juneat te SVA Theatre InNewYorkto uncoverneonains cof thoughts anéemtions, the ‘meaning of dreams andthe connection between material euronsand consciousness. newsclentist.com/events Tour Alfred Nobel's Stockholm: Sweden JoinNew Scents reporter ‘x Wikinsona waking tour of Stackholm hame of luminares Ie AtteaNobe, Cat Linnaeus and ons Jaco Berzeius, ‘whose contributions tobotany, astronomy, psi, chamisry and madi ae second tanone. Leam about the Nobel prizes, created torewardthose whohad ‘conferred the greatestbenelit con humankind This sic day tourstartson 28 September andcosts £2544 newsclentist.com/tours Podcast Dead Planets Society Inne second season of ow absurd and occasionally catadysmicpodcast, New Scents Chelsea Whyte and Leah Crane ar joined by experts nastrananny,pryses and planetary science to tirker wth he unverse, rom shed Mars with magnets toobiterating ablackhob. newsclentist.com/nspod 4NewSclentst|20 Apll2003 H 5 H Land of laureates Visi Stockhoim, nome ofthe Nobel prizes Video Eclipse chasers Last week, two NASAet planes spedat 740 klometresper hour ‘alongside the solar edipse a it ‘travelled acoss North America Equipped wth visbleand Infrared cameras thatimaged ‘thesun's corona, the research \willhopefully determine which structuesinthe corona emit thelr own lh and which scatter light from he sun's surface. youtube.com/newscientist Newsletter Health Check ‘Nevanda Thorson rounds ups weeks heath news, including wry Weare starting to better understand ne casesof tong coud and new evdence tat many sural infections may be casedyybaceta already onthe skin Pls, cancer eatmant re being developed taxgetng mminturousinthel. newscientist.com/ health-check Video “We flew the airplanes intandem so that we doubled the observing time of the eclipse” aN) OF CIVILISATION Essential guide Where ae the origins of humanity? When di cistion begin and what does te future of society old? Uncover he secrets ofthe pastin this New Scientist Essen Guide covering all that we know bout the arcat human ngenty. ‘Now avataletoreadinthe apnor buy inpnint from our onne shop. shop.newscientist.com The leader Climate pessimism Negative thinking is unpopular, but it could drive more realistic efforts to limit harm PESSIMISM isa dirty word in climate policy circles. There are good reasons forthis, not least that optimismcan spur positive change, while assumingthe worst can paralyse us into inaction, But when itcomestoclimate modelling some negativethinking could bea good thing. ‘TheIntergovernmental Panelon Climate Change already hedges its bets witha range of models, or pathways, that assess how wemight limit warming to 15°C,or seecarbon emissions continue ‘unabated, orexperience many possibilities Inbetween, These pathways are underpinned by thousands of scientific papers, reams of data andthe brains of the world’sclimate scientist, but, likeall ‘models, they are alsobuilton assumptions. ‘One key assumption in scenariosthat PUBLISHING & COMMERCIAL commer and event decor an Newton Display averting ‘rs aaionen ogee ma epee state count manage retecckipeconat eager Ala, Recrnent aot ‘bagless mal nas weentic ‘eraltment sl Stren "ey mont manger gn ‘ta (ogst 554 Balle nowcectcom “saeor fc ‘Meadoferent production Varin bes Senor roduc manage te Matting coo Head of capa nating ie halon canpepnnnciedg enter Chass Wks Panor martin dsgner iy Nas ree Se eee meaner endotsigy sci drape ssa Anew sep programines at echnology es chit sae . meee EE ne "areetips const torn Nal “The climate change~ keepus below 15"Cof warmingis that, inthe near future, we will rapidly perfect technologies that remove carbon dioxide fromthe atmosphere. This isn'tan unreasonable prediction, given human Ingenuity andthestrong incentives for doing so. But includingeaarbon capture elated challenges facing us in the next decade have just got harder” technologies in these models is abit ike declaring you will balance your household budget witha lottery win -ifyoucan'tcut ‘your outgoings toan affordableevel,you hhad better hope aig prize ison Its way. Astwo storiesin this issue demonstrate, this isa risky approach. A detailed analysis NewScientist het exeste lad Aor aston or rent ofa eadotfinne Cree a0 Senlofinsnee nay te tin ranagenen suntan va Les ‘un bsinse partner huni subamanin. contcros sonst crate ore aan Sees er nana EL la ‘Somthamne mere menting omer canine ogee a ent 8 Se sn en ome ea cen ed en sone Ee aan Smt ensayo eee, ee aeigea nooo Crrecycle of plans for geological storageof carbon dioxide has found that meetingthe levels, assumed by many 15°C pathwaysis,ifnot impossible, hen atleast highly unlikely (see page 8). The odds ofthat lottery win aren't looking sohot. Meanwhile, we have also received an unexpected carbon bil, inthe formof melting Arctic permafrost releasing more greenhouse gas than has previously been accounted for (see page). ‘Such revisions in our understandingof climate changeare both entirely expected and to be welcomed, but they show that the challenges facing us in the next decade have just got harder. Instead of squeezing ‘imate models untilthe numbers just about ft the 15°C target, perhaps more pessimistic outlook would better accelerateeffortstolimit the damage. & ee ‘reatiedirctor Cie Mackie moet am Reprod Ca cee [ie a ead of al i anty F ‘ie na ttc Ain Cs etuewer ran at ‘ae nd Commenty command oso chit ebedorSetor one than ley Toma Las on Wie _atedior yan Wis wc a ET = ies Frodtion coordinator rater — ay ae oeeeag eee 20 Aprilaong|NewScentit!5 Subscriptions NewScientist P CE Sitg A curiosity take you? Read, watch and listen to our expert reporting covering the SOS ee CURDS eae a orc are Caer cee Ano Ribena Begin your journey of discovery at Pere eC AMIS Eley or call +44 (0) 330 333 9470, quoting 21192 News ‘cyborg cockroaches Swarmofinsects ‘anbecontrolled bycomputers pro etheltte things Are pandasbad at sex ‘because ofthe wrong _gutmierobes? px. Peter Higgs Remembering the Nobel prizewinning physest pas Merging ite Once independent bacteriumevolves Insidean alga pas Keeponbrushing Treating gum disease may prevent regular heartbeat pis wildlife Puffins arrive for breeding season ‘The multicoloured bils of Atlantic putfins(Fratercula arctica)canbe seenon UK shores again, returning to breedafter overwintering at sea. Theonespicturedhere areatBempton CiftsNature ReserveinEast Yorkshire, the A Ut’stargest mainland seabird colony. About onein four puffins have been lostin the UK since 2000, but thereishope ofa reverse afterthe announcement earlier this year of aban on fishing in British watersfor sand 3s, which are animportant source for the birds, 20 Aprl2oag NewSlentist7 News Climatechange Key carbon plan is unworkable Climate models assume we can slow global warming by storing carbon dioxide underground, but the numbers don't add up, finds Madeleine Cuff PLANS to tackle climate changeby suckingcarbon dioxide from the airandstoring itundergroundare wildly unrealistic, accordingtoa new analysis calling nto question ‘our ability to meet climate goals, Humanity has now released somuch carbon dioxideinto the atmosphere that is impossible Torthe planet toremain below 15°Cor2°Cof warming above pre industrial levels simply by halting ‘emissions. Instead, most climate models that stay below these temperatures assume we willhave "We have been extremely ambitious to set a target of imiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C" toactively remove CO. from the atmosphere in various ways (see carbon clean-up’, below right) and findsomewhereelseto put it. Thesemodels, known as Integrated assessment models (IAMS, play akey role in climate policy-making, setting out potential pathways forglobal decarbonisation. Their outcomes inform the scientificassessments made by theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) ‘on globaltemperature goals and support governments in drawing ons-cutting strategies. {svitalthat they areas accurateandealisticas possible. ‘But IAMs seem to have massively overestimated one ‘carbon storage method, known as ‘geological storage, which involves capturing CO; and pumping it ‘underground into places such as depleted oll and gas reservolrs. Currently, aroundg million tonnes of CO, arestoredin this ‘way each year, but tostay below 15°C,most IAMsassumethis rate of storage will needto increase 1000-fold to around gigatonnes bby mid-century. Some go even '1NewSclentst|20 April2005 further, requiring double ortriple this expansion. ‘Such rapid scaling is unfeasible, says Samuel Krevorat Imperial College London. Heand his colleagues used a new approach toassessthe likelihood of delivering gigatonne scale carbon starage by 2050, taking into account geological, ‘economie, technological and .geographicconstraints on growth (Research Square, doorg/mmnn), They conclude that the ‘maximum geological storage possibleby 2050 is 16 gigatonnes year, but such a scenario is unrealistic relying on huge growth, sustained over decades. also requitesthe UStodeliver 60 percentofthetotalannual storage—10 gigatonnes per yearby 2050, farbeyondthe rgigatonneit has promised by that date. “tes|ust really hard toenvision «situation where theUS would ineentivise that much," says Krevor.A more realistic scenario, hich takes ntoaccount the Us’. Carbonclean-up Before wecan store carbon, we ‘must capturelt. These ae the ‘main technologies for doing so. ‘CARBON CAPTURE: Factores and ower stations are equipped wth devices that can separate and Capture te ste’s carbon coxide emissions before they enter the ‘atmosphere. Current technology ~ ‘which has been operating commerialy since 1972 -can remove around 90 per centof emissions butitisexpensive [BIOENERGY WITH CARBON ‘CAPTURE: This process males extracting eneray from plant ‘material suchas by burning stated goal, sees the world hit around 6 gigatonnes of annual geological storageby mid-century. The projections that are above 6 glgatonnes, certainly above 1ogigatonnes.. t's dificult tose how that would work” he says ‘Theteam’s most conservative scenario assumesa to percent Ina power station and capturing the ‘emissions gen of Intheory the resulting energy scarbonnegatve, because along ath the captured emissions the plants have absorbed cabon while growing. But opponents say he dea s unproven at scale and requres huge amounts oflan. DIRECT AIR CAPTURE: Those technologies extract CO, drectly fromthe atmosphere, ether using sorbent materia ora quid soWent They delvertrutynegativeerssions ‘and can operate inany locaton Lntethered from polation sources. However curentversionsare yettoscaleup andare extremely expensive and energy nfensive ‘annual growth rate for geological storage from now until 2050, which isstillhigherthanthe average annual growth rateof 8.6percentseen between 1996 ‘and2020, Underthis scenario, ‘annual storage capacity reaches lessthan 1gigatonne per year bby2050, well below whatclimate models assume willbe needed to deliver the 15°C temperature gol The study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed, considers only the regions that have existing carbon. capture-and-storage projects or cones duetobe upandrunning by 2030-limitingiitsfocusto 10 regions covering North America, the European Union, the UK, Australia and parts of Asia, Krevorsays IAMS are overestimating the delivery ‘of carbon sequestration partly because they don't account for difficulties in scaling the nascent industry, particularly in areas of Asiawhere current deployment is low.Some of the projections made {or carbon storage in China and Indonesiaby 2050 assumesuch massive increases in deployment that it*boggles the mind’, he says. Aprojectin Blomoyna, Norway, aims topump C0, underthe ocean ‘Models can also skirt over some of the practicalities of using geological storage, such as how quickly reservoirs can be filled. "Aureservoit islikea cup. Youcan pouratafastrate foralongtime. But as you approach thelimit, you have toslow down. I'snot just about the volume that’s there, its about how quickly you can use i’ says Krevor. Thisls something that many ofthese models need to work on” says Alaa AlKhourdajieat Imperial ollegeLondon, who wasn't involvedin the study. Even before the team’s analysis, the possibility of remaining below 15°Cof warming wasseen as Increasingly unlikely, requiring theheavy industry and energy and transport sectors tobe decarbonised in just afew decades. Without large-scalecarbon storage, that task iseven tougher, either demanding fasterand more extensiveemissions cuts orthe uuseof riskier mitigation strategies, such as geoengineering. Such revisions atelikely tobe included inthenext roundot IPCC assessments, due in 2029. ‘Climate modelers willalways work o finda solution that fitsa tomperaturetarget, says Roberto Schaeffer atthe Federal University of Riode Janeiro, Brazil. However, astheremaining carbon budget forthe1s‘C temperature threshold shrinks, thesolutions will become evermore drastic. The realissue here isthat we have been extremely ambitious toseta target oflimitingthe temperature rise to15°C) says Schaeffer's not that thesolutions ofthe model are unrealistic. Eventually what is unrealisticisthe target itself” # Arctic permafrost is now a net emitter of major greenhouse gases AlecLuhn AREAS of permanently frozen ‘round innorthern regions. ‘are now emitting more carbon into the atmosphere than they ‘absorb, causing the planet to heat even further, according to the first Arctic-wide estimate of allthree major greenhouse gases. Frozen ground, or permafrost, ‘which underlies 15 pereentof ‘the northern hemisphere and ‘contains twice as much carbon asthe atmosphere, has shrunk inareaby anestimated 7 percent in SO yearsasitthaws. Recent research suggests the thaw will slow but not stop if we cantimit, ‘global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet scientists haven't been ‘sure whether the permafrost regionhas become a net emitter ‘of greenhouse gases. Even as ‘the thawreleases more carbon ‘compounds from the once-frozen biological matter inthe ground, increased summertime plant ‘growth is absorbing more carbon

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