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To Cuba’s youth, wishing them the opportunity to form a future they can
believe in.
Foreword
A decade has elapsed since Raul Castro took over the helm of Cuba’s revo-
lutionary regime, replacing the ailing brother who had personified the
island’s exceptionalist experiment in radical socialism for the previous half
century. Across those decades, most commentators, whether sympathetic
or critical, had taken it for granted that ‘Castroism’ required the personal-
ist direction of Fidel, and that the loss of his charismatic authority would
deal a severe (indeed probably irreparable) blow to regime continuity. But
Raul (whose authority derived from organizational dexterity rather than
personal magnetism) demonstrated the contrary.
Vegard Bye, thorough insightful, and up-to-date, assessment both
explains how this was achieved and also documents the accumulated legacy
of unresolved problems that confront the post-Castro successor generation
that has assumed the reins of government in the extremely challenging con-
ditions of 2019. The timing for such an exercise is just right, and the author
is unusually well equipped for the task. He cannot, of course, really answer
the question implicit in the title about what lies beyond the Castros, but he
can and does provide a very balanced and well-founded account of the big
issues at stake, and he makes good use of both his remarkable local knowl-
edge and his study of the comparative evidence to ground a convincing set
of alternative future scenarios. This is not just about the relatively narrow
issue of ‘who rules?’, and under what constraints and dispensations (impor-
tant and difficult to grasp as those topics are in Cuban conditions). The
fundamental issue is not even whether the existing power structure can adapt
sufficiently to retain control over the country in the coming generation,
although the book makes clear that that is a hugely problematic challenge.
vii
viii FOREWORD
Ever since 1959, the Cuban Revolution ‘punched far above its weight’
in world affairs and in the collective consciousness of many millions, both
at home and abroad. But the imagery of the ‘guerrillero heroico’ is now
long past—a fading postcard from a different century—and today’s Cuban
people have pressing needs and urgent tasks of catching up with the rest
of the world that will determine their future allegiances, and the way they
assess their latest cohort of rulers. They will require new avenues of expres-
sion, and new solutions to their quite basic problems, and how those
needs are met (or not) will determine ‘where Cuba is going’ from here on.
International solidarity and ideological support remain important assets
for Havana, but grandiose claims can no longer be relied on to mask the
material hardships and practical limitations of ‘really existing’ Cuban
socialism. This volume provides a powerful diagnosis and a persuasive pro-
spective outlook. Islanders and external well-wishers alike can learn much
from Vegard Bye’s evaluation.
The dissertation on which this book is based was for the degree called doc-
tor philosophiae, Dr. philos., the old doctorate degree at Norwegian
universities.
Although the University offers no academic or economic support for the
work with this degree, I have been fortunate to have several academic col-
leagues and friends who have supported me throughout this process and
thereby also with this book. Professors Olle Törnquist and Bernt Hagtvet,
both of the Political Science Department at the University of Oslo, have
offered good and important guidance and feedback. The same is the case for
Professor Torbjørn L. Knutsen at Norwegian University of Science and
Technology, Trondheim (NTNU) University (Trondheim), and for Professor
Axel Borchgrevink at OsloMet University. I have also enjoyed a close collabo-
ration and exchange of information and interpretations with a fellow doctor-
ate candidate, anthropologist Ståle Wig, working on a highly related subject
so crucial to the understanding of the changes taking place in Cuba: self-
employment, or as the Cubans call it, cuentapropismo. The report by the
Adjudication Committee on my dissertation and separate comments from
the three members—Professor Terry Lynn Karl (Stanford University),
Assistant Professor Marie-Laure Geoffray (Sorbonne Nouvelle), and Professor
Emeritus Helge Hveem (University of Oslo)—have also been of great help.
The Dr. philos project has received economic support from the
Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Norwegian Embassy
in Havana.
ix
x PREFACE
There are so many persons I need to thank for their support. Many of
them—but not all—are mentioned in the Appendix (Note on Sources).
Most of all I want to thank the generous and hospitable Cuban people and
all my Cuban friends and colleagues.
I want to thank Monica Førde Salater, who has helped me with the
editing of the book manuscript.
Oslo/HavanaVegard Bye
March 2019
Acknowledgements
The book is published with economic support from the Norwegian Writers
and Translators Association, and from the Fritt Ord Foundation (Norway).
xi
Quotations marked with S/E, are translated from Spanish to English by the
author of the book.
xiii
Contents
1 Introduction 1
xv
xvi Contents
10 Conclusions271
Appendix289
Bibliography297
Index309
Abbreviations and Glossary
xvii
xviii ABBREVIATIONS AND GLOSSARY
Vegard Bye has been living in and visiting Cuba regularly since the late
1970s, starting with a two-year period as a Junior Professional with the
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Havana. Since
2010, in the run-up to the 6th Communist Party Congress when Raúl
Castro’s reform agenda was approved, the author has been coordinating
an academic collaboration project with several Cuban institutions, first on
behalf of the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs (NUPI), later
on behalf of the Centre for Development and the Environment (SUM) at
the University of Oslo. This has given him a unique opportunity to follow
the Cuban economic and political transformations closely over a period of
several years, collect empirical data and interpret the changes from a social
science perspective, against the backdrop of a 40-year-long experience
with the country.
The book is based on a Dr. philos dissertation, submitted to the Department
of Political Science at the University of Oslo in May 2018: The End of an
Era—or a New Start? Economic Reforms with Potential for Political
Transformations on Raúl Castro’s Watch (2008–2018).1 The dissertation
was successfully defended in January 2019. The book complements the
dissertation with updated information on the first year (until April 2019) of
the first non-Castro president since the 1959 Revolution.
The author has had most of his professional career outside of academic
institutions, working with the UN (representing the High Commissioner
for Human Rights in various countries), with Norwegian government
xxi
xxii About the Author
Note
1. The full dissertation can be downloaded here: http://hdl.handle.
net/10852/66018.
List of Figures
xxiii
List of Tables
xxv
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
The Setting
On 19 April 2018, Raúl Castro stepped down as Cuba’s president after
ten years—two constitutional periods—in this position, thus formally
finalising 59 years of Castro rule in Cuba. Miguel Díaz-Canel, a civilian
party apparatchik born after the 1959 Revolution, was chosen to lead the
country into an unknown future. His first promise was one of continuity.
The new millennium seems not yet to have dawned upon Havana, still
looking nostalgically back on its 500 years history which it is set to cele-
brate in 2019.
Ten months into his tenure, the first post-Castro president was able to
get a new Constitution approved in a referendum, although with a much
narrower majority than the country has been used to and its legitimacy
thoroughly questioned by most neighbours. The situation in Cuba’s close
ally Venezuela, with the US driving for regime change supported by most
of Latin America, is leading Cuba to its most serious isolation and crisis
since the fall of the Soviet Union.
The general view of most observers has been that Raúl Castro carried
out more fundamental reforms in Cuba after taking over from big brother
Fidel, than anything that had ever occurred since the Revolution defined
its Marxist-Leninist character in the early 1960s (see Mesa-Lago 2013).
Yet, Raúl Castro stated from the outset that “the objective is to guarantee
the continuation and irreversibility of socialism”. The same was said when
the presidency was left to Díaz-Canel ten years later. Looking beyond
rhetoric, the question we intend to discuss in this book is what these reforms
consisted of in terms of economic and political change, and in which direc-
tion they have set Cuba in the final phase of its Castro era, and how they are
followed up in the post-Castro era.
Cuba has since January 1959 been a unique country, in the Americas
and globally. With its iconic Revolution, masterminded and led for almost
50 years by one of the most charismatic political leaders of the twentieth
century, Fidel Castro Ruz, accompanied by comrade-in-arms Ernesto
‘Che’ Guevara until his death. This small island nation of around 11 mil-
lion inhabitants has been the centre of attention for students of socialism
and communism; anti-imperialism and national liberation; US-Soviet
Cold War geostrategic rivalry and the danger of nuclear war; human rights
discussions of economic, social and cultural rights versus civil-political
rights; leftist versus rightist recipes for development strategies. Cuba sim-
ply had it all.
So completely was this country and its Revolution associated with its
towering leader, that nobody could imagine it would survive without
Fidel at the helm. Then, on 31 July 2006, the Cuban state television
announced that Fidel (then 80) was to undergo intestinal surgery, forcing
him on a preliminary basis to leave all commanding positions in the
Communist Party, the Armed Forces and the Government to his brother
and second-in-command, Raúl Castro Ruz (then 75). News desks all over
the world started to speculate: was this finally the end of El Comandante
as well as his revolution, both having been written off so many times? Was
it at all conceivable that Cuba, on its knees after the collapse of its Soviet
benefactor, would survive without Fidel? We had been reminded about his
omnipotence five years earlier, when Fidel had fainted on the podium, and
insisted that he be kept awake during the surgery he had to undergo to
treat some quite serious knee injuries, so as to make sure he could keep
control on the same 24/7 basis he was used to. Afterwards he cracked a
joke: “I simply pretended to die, in order to observe how my own funeral
would look like”.
Then, in a letter dated 18 February 2008, Fidel Castro announced that
he would not accept the positions of President of the Council of State and
Commander-in-Chief at the upcoming National Assembly meeting. He
stated that his health was a primary reason for his decision, remarking that
“It would betray my conscience to take up a responsibility that requires
mobility and total devotion, that I am not in a physical condition to
offer”.1 On 24 February 2008, the National Assembly of People’s Power
1 INTRODUCTION 3
That night quite late Katya descended the stairs upon tiptoe.
She spoke in a very low voice:
“The little thing’s been talking, talking,” she said, “the quaintest
little thoughts. I’ve seen it coming for days now. Sometimes I’ve seen
her lips moving. She’s the most precise enunciation in the world.”
“I wired Ellida this afternoon,” Robert Grimshaw said.
“Then Ellida will be down here by the last train?” Katya
answered, and he commented: “We’ve only got an hour.”
“But little Kitty,” she was beginning.
“No, no,” he interrupted. “Nobody must be talked about but us.
Nobody must be talked about but us. I’m as glad as you or Ellida or
Paul could possibly be about Kitty, but now that I have got you alone
at last you’re bound to face the music.”
“But little Kitty?” Katya said. She said it, however, only for form’s
sake, for Robert Grimshaw’s gentle face was set in a soft inflexibility,
and his low tones she knew would hold her to the mark. She had to
face the music. In the half-darkness his large eyes perused her face,
dark, mournful and tender. The low, long farmhouse room with its
cheap varnished furniture was softened by the obscure light from the
fire over which he had been standing for a very long hour.
“Is it the same terms, then?” he asked slowly, and she
answered:
“Exactly the same.”
He looked down at the fire, resting his hand on the chimney-
piece. At last she said: “We might modify it a little;” and he moved his
face, his eyes searching the obscurity in which she stood, only one
of her hands catching the glow from the fire.
“I cannot modify anything,” he said. “There must be a marriage,
by what recognized rite you like, but—that.”
Her voice remained as level as his, expressing none of the
longing, the wistfulness, that were in her whole being.
“Nobody knew about mother,” she said. “Nobody seems to have
got to know now.”
“And you mean,” he said, “that now you consent to letting
nobody know it about you?”
“You did succeed,” she evaded him, “in concealing it about
mother. It was splendid of you! At the time I thought it wasn’t
possible. I don’t know how you managed it. I suppose nobody knows
about it but you and me and Ellida and Pauline.”
“You mean,” he pursued relentlessly, “you mean that now you
consent to letting nobody know it about you? Of course, besides us,
my solicitor knows—of your mother.”
“At the first shock,” she said, “I thought that the whole world
must know, and so I was determined that the whole world should
know that I hadn’t deserted her memory....” She paused for a wistful
moment, whilst inflexibly he reflected over the coals. “Have you,” she
said, “the slightest inkling of why she did it?”
He shook his head slowly; he sighed.
“Of course I couldn’t take you even on those terms—that
nobody knew,” he said, with his eyes still averted. Then he turned
upon her, swarthy, his face illumined with a red glow. The slow
mournfulness of their speeches, the warmth, the shadow, kept him
silent for a long time. “No,” he said at last, “there isn’t a trace of a
fact to be found. I’m as much in the dark as I was on that day when
we parted. I’m not as stunned, but I’m just as mystified.”
“Ah!” she said, “but what did you feel—then?”
“Did you ever realize,” he asked, “how the shock came to me?
You remember old Partington, with the grey beard? He asked me to
call on them. He sat on the opposite side of his table. He handed me
the copy of some notes your father had made for their instructions as
to his will. It was quite short. It ran: ‘You are to consider that my wife
and I were never married. I desire you to frame a will so phrased that
my entire estate, real and personal, should devolve upon my two
daughters, Ellida and Katharine, without revealing the fact that they
are illegitimate. This should not be difficult, since their mother’s
name, which they are legally entitled to bear, was the same as my
own, she having been my cousin.’” Grimshaw broke off his low
monologue to gaze again at her, when he once more returned his
eyes to the coals. “You understand,” he said, “what that meant to
me. It was handed to me without a word; and after a long time
Partington said: f You understand that you are your uncle’s heir-at-
law—nothing more.”
Katya whispered: “Poor old Toto!”
“You know how I honoured your father and mother,” he said.
“They were all the parents I ever knew. Well, you know all about
that.... And then I had to break the news to you.... Good God!”
He drew his hands down his face.
“Poor old Toto!” Katya said slowly again. “I remember.”
“And you won’t make any amends?” he asked.
“I’ll give you myself,” she said softly.
He answered: “No! no!” and then, wearily, “It’s no good.”
“Well, I did speak like a beast to you,” she said. “But think what
a shock it was to me—mother not dead a month, and father not four
days, and so suddenly—all that. I’ll tell you how I felt. I felt a loathing
for all men. I felt a recoiling from you—a recoiling, a shudder.”
“Oh, I know,” he said, and suddenly he began to plead: “Haven’t
you injured me enough? Haven’t I suffered enough? And why?—
why? For a mad whim. Isn’t it a mad whim? Or what? I can
understand you felt a recoil. But ...”
“Oh, I don’t feel it now,” she said; “you know.”
“Ah yes,” he answered; “but I didn’t know till to-day, till just now
when you raised your arms. And all these years you haven’t let me
know.”
“How did you know?” she asked. “How did you know that I felt
it? But, of course, you understand me even when I don’t speak.”
“It’s heaven,” he said, “to know that you’ve grown out of it. It has
been hell to bear the thought....”
“Oh, my dear! ...” she said.
“Such loneliness,” he said. “Do you know,” he continued
suddenly, “I came back from Athens? I’m supposed to be a strong-
minded man—I suppose I am a strong-minded man—but I turned
back the moment I reached Greece because I couldn’t bear—I could
not bear the thought that you might still shudder at my touch. Now I
know you don’t, and ...”
“Ellida will be here soon,” Katya said. “Can’t you hear her train
coming down the valley ... there...? And I want to tell you what I’ve
found out about mother. I’ve found it out, I’ve made it out,
remembering what she said from day to day. I’ll tell you what it was
—it was trustfulness. I remember it now. It was the mainspring of her
life. I think I know how the very idea came into her mind. I’ve got it
down to little details. I’ve been inquiring even about the Orthodox
priests there were in England at the time. There wasn’t a single one!
One had just died suddenly, and there did not come a successor for
six months. And mother was there. And when she was a young
thing, mother, I know, had a supreme contempt—a bitter contempt—
for all English ideas. She got over it. When we children were born
she became the gentlest being. You know, that was what she always
was to me—she was a being, not a woman. When she came into the
room she spread soothing around her. I might be in paroxysms of
temper, but it died out when she opened the door. It’s so strong upon
me that I hardly remember what she looked like. I can’t remember
her any more than I can conceive of the looks of a saint. A saint!—
well, she was that. She had been hot-tempered, she had been
contemptuous. She became what you remember after we were born.
You may say she got religion.”
Katya, her eyes full of light, paused; she began again with less
of exultation.
“I dare say,” she said, “she began to live with father without the
rites of the Church because there was no Church she acknowledged
to administer them; but later, she didn’t want them remember how
she always told us, ‘Trust each other, trust each other; then you will
become perfectly to be trusted.’ And again, she would never let us
make promises one to another. Don’t you remember? She always
said to us: ‘Say that you will do a thing. Never promise—never. Your
word must be your bond.’ You remember?”
Grimshaw slowly nodded his head. “I remember.”
“So that I am certain,” she said, “that that was why she never
married father. I think she regarded marriage—the formality, the
vows—as a desecration. Don’t you see, she wanted to be my
father’s chattel, and to trust him absolutely—to trust, to trust! Isn’t
that the perfect relationship?”
Grimshaw said: “Yes, I dare say that is the explanation. But ...”
“But it makes no difference to you?” she pleaded. In the
distance she heard the faint grind of wheels.
“No,” he said, “not even if no one else knew it. I’m very tired; I’m
very lonely. I want you so; I want you with all my heart. But not that—
not that.”
“Not ever?” she said.
“No,” he answered; “I’ll play with my cards on the table. If I grow
very tired—very, very tired—if I cannot hold out any longer, well, I
may consent—to your living with me as your mother lived with your
father. But”—and he stood up briskly—“I’ll tell you this: you’ve
strengthened me—you’ve strengthened me in my motive. If you had
shuddered at me as you did on that day years ago, I think I should
have given in by now. But you didn’t any longer. You’ve come to me;
you raised your arms to me. Don’t you see how it has strengthened
me? I’m not alone any more; I’m not the motherless boy that I was....
Yes, it’s heaven.”
Her hands fell by her side. The sound of wheels filled the room,
and ceased.
“If I’d repulsed you, you’d have given in?” she said.
The door fell violently back, and from the black and radiant
figure of Ellida came the triumphant cry: “Kitty’s spoken! Kitty’s
spoken! You’ve not deceived me!”
II
IV