TORNADO TERROR

Image Credit: (Deventer, 2023)

By: Caitlyn Bell

According to the National Weather Service, a tornado is “A violently rotating

column of air touching the ground, usually attached to the base of a
thunderstorm.” When warm, humid air rises in clouds and cool air falls, the
air inside of the clouds begins to spin. The spinning column of air then goes
from horizontal to vertical, creating a tornado.

Meteorologists and scientists around the world have researched for many
years to find what causes a tornado and how they form. Although they are
unable to pinpoint the exact reason, we must ask the question, “Is climate
change related to increased frequency of tornadoes?” This project focuses on
the relationship between climate change and tornadoes, as well as the
changing trends and challenges the public is facing today.

CLASSIFICATION OF TORNADOES

Image Credit: (Azzara, 2020)

Tornadoes can produce mass destruction if categorized high on the EF Scale, or Enhanced Fujita
Scale. The EF Scale became operational on February 1st, 2007, and was created by Dr. T.
Theodore Fujita originally as The Fujita Scale. The scale ranges from EF-0 to EF-5 depending on
wind speeds that can range as low as 65 mph and as high as more than 200 mph. Various levels
of damage to structures and the quality of life can occur. Tornadoes can also be life-threatening
and have a debris cloud that can enhance the damage.

Tornadoes come in all

shapes and sizes, as
those seen to the left.
Like snowflakes, one
tornado is never the
same as another.
Factors such as wind
speed, temperature, and
air pressure influence
the formation.

Image Credit: (Stull,

2016)
 WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?

Climate change is the long-term effects in weather patterns and temperatures around the world.
We learned in Lesson 4.1 that greenhouses gases such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,
and ozone absorb infrared radiation and warm the planet. The Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society states that, “Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal,
according to many different kinds of evidence.” It goes on to say, “It is clear from extensive
scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century
is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases…”

Image Credit: (The Royal Society, 2020)

Combined land and ocean measurements show the Earth’s global temperatures from 1850-2019.
Looking at the graph, we can see a 1.2°C increase over the graph and an average of 0°C from
1961-1990. Rising temperatures cause the air to become warmer and release more water. With
the air becoming warmer, the environment has the potential to become more unstable and
produce the “ingredients” for severe weather patterns.

The science behind climate change and these storms is still unclear to scientists. However,
climate models are being used to better understand how the warming Earth can cause more
supercell storms to push hot, dry air from the Southwest to the east of the region that stretches
from Texas to South Dakota, known as “Tornado Alley”.
 HOW THEY ARE RELATED

Pressure System

Today, the weather community is seeing improved technology that is equipped to make better
predictions when it comes to severe weather. This, however, does not rule out the fact that
climate change is having dire effects on our environment. To study our changing atmosphere, we
dp
must first understand its pressure structure. The Hydrostatic Equation, =-ρg, is the derivative
dz
of the pressure with respect to height. Meteorologists use this equation to show that there are 3
forces to hydrostatic balance, which determines that atmosphere’s basic pressure structure.

Lesson 2 describes the

three parts of the
hydrostatic balance:

1. F top=− p topA, the

downward pressure
force
2. F bottom=p bottom A , the
upward pressure force
3. F weight =− ρVg=−ρ gA
Δz, the downward force
of gravity

Image Credit: W. Brune

Pressure decreases with height, but why is this important? Every air parcel is acted on by these
three forces, but let’s take a closer look at what is really going on. A parcel of warm air has a
lower density than the cooler air around it. Climate change and the warming temperature of the
Earth causes more heat to rise, and the density of air parcels will decrease further. However,
Newton’s First Law of Physics states that an object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion
stays in motion. Therefore, there must be another force acting on the air parcels for them to rise.
The answer…gravity! The denser air reaches the Earth’s surface, spreads the less dense air, and
forces it into motion. This is also why storms tend to form along weather fronts. How is this
related to tornadoes?

Convergence and Divergence

The conservation of mass in a continuous fluid, or the Equation of Continuity gives,

1 Dρ → →
+ ∇×U =0. This equation is important because it means that if the flow is diverging, then
ρ Dt
the density must increase.

In the book, Lesson 9.1 states that “Convergence is when the velocity of the air slows down in
the direction of the streamline” and “Divergence is when the velocity of the air speeds up in the
direction of the streamline”.

∂u ∂v
The divergence equation is given by + ≡δ . Although δ is the horizontal divergence, the
∂x ∂ y
spinning current of a tornado starts out horizontal and turns vertical when dropped down by a
cloud. It is horizontal divergence because it describes the change in the parcel’s area in a
horizontal plane, as outlined in Lesson 9.3. Divergence at the upper level of the atmosphere
enhances upward motion, causing potential thunderstorm development.

As seen here, convergence is at the bottom of the low-pressure system and divergence at the top.
In contrast, divergence is at the bottom of the high-pressure system and convergence at the top.
Tornadoes are low-pressure systems and spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and
clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.
Image Credit: (Moran, 2018)

Stability & Instability

If a sum of forces is in equilibrium, the air parcel will not move. However, what happens when
the parcel is moved slightly? Here, in Lesson 2.6, we are given this image to decipher:

Image Credit: W. Brune

In an unstable condition, the parcel continues to rise. On the right, the air parcel has positive
stability and therefore sinks back to its original position. The lapse rate of the atmosphere
determines if the air parcel is stable or not. We can use this diagram to see how air parcels rely
on their stability when determining the weather. As stated before, moist, rising air can throw off
the balance of the parcels and push them further into instability. As a result, thunderstorms could
be more likely to spawn at that time.

Buoyancy

Buoyancy, stability, convergence, and divergence all work together to move air parcels.
1 dθ
Buoyancy is denoted by the equation, B=-gΔz . Lesson 2.6 also points out that “…the
θ dz
stability of a layer depends on the change in environmental potential temperature with height.
Air parcels try to move vertically with constant potential temperature.” The National Weather
Service adds, “If the temperature of the rising parcel decreases to less than the surrounding
atmosphere (due to its cooling) the air parcel will become denser than the surrounding
environment and gravity will slow, or even reverse, the rise.” And “If the temperature of the
rising air parcel remains higher than the surrounding atmosphere (being less dense than the
surrounding environment), will continue to rise.” If B > 0, then the parcel accelerates upwards,
but if B < 0, then the parcel accelerates downwards. Continuing to have velocity when they reach
altitude causes them to overshoot and descend.

CHANGING TRENDS: FREQUENCY & INTENSITY

There is still no direct link to climate change and tornadoes, but scientists feel that they are
getting closer to solving the problem. As shown above, the basics behind air parcels and why
they act the way they do is an important element to understand even if it is not directly related to
climate change. Climate change could have effects on tornadoes if the Earth’s temperatures
continue to rise. Tornadoes tend to be on the smaller side of weather events, compared to
something like a hurricane. They are also short lived, and this makes it difficult to create climate
simulations that study the effects of climate change. Although these simulations can be helpful,
only about 20 percent of thunderstorms produce tornadoes. To further complications, tornado
records in the United States date back to only 1950. Doppler radar is still new, so many
tornadoes have gone undetected unless there was an eyewitness to report it. Unfortunately, long-
term trends are then skewed and inaccurate. According to National Geographic, “While there
have been no long-term trends in the frequency of tornadoes, there have been changes in tornado
patterns in recent years.” In other words, fewer days with one tornado against more days with
thirty tornadoes shows that tornadic events are becoming more clustered.

The annual tornado activity from 1955-2013. The number of days per year with an EF-1 or greater is
represented by black squares. The decade’s average number of tornado days are represented by the black
line and circles. The number of days per year with more than 30 tornadoes as an EF-1 or greater is
represented by the red triangles. The decade’s average number of tornado outbreaks are represented by the
red line and circles.

Image Credit: (Center for Climate Change and Energy Solutions, 2022)
There are many factors that are used for the formation of tornadoes such as moist air, an unstable
environment, and temperature. Global warming is a huge issue around the world, and it has
raised concerns for public safety from severe weather. Scientists will continue to study climate
models, but we must be patient in the process.

RESOURCES

Azzara, J. (2020, March 9). Enhanced Fujita Scale: What it means and how meteorologists use it
- ABC17NEWS. Retrieved April 19, 2023, from https://abc17news.com/weather/insider-
blog/2020/03/09/enhanced-fujita-scale-what-it-means-and-how-meteorologists-use-it/

Brune, W. (2020). METEO 300: Fundamentals of Atmospheric Science | METEO 300:

Fundamentals of Atmospheric Science (psu.edu). METEO 300: Fundamentals of
Atmospheric Science | METEO 300: Fundamentals of Atmospheric Science. Retrieved
April 21, 2023, from https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo300/

Center for Climate Change and Energy Solutions. (2022, July 21). Tornadoes and Climate
Change - Center for Climate and Energy Solutions Center for Climate and Energy
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Deventer, C. (2023, March 9). Worst States for Tornadoes | Bankrate. Bankrate. Retrieved April
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states-for-tornadoes/

Moran, D. (2018, May 9). How Does Subsidence Affect Weather? (weatherops.com). How Does
Subsidence Affect Weather? Retrieved April 20, 2023, from
https://blog.weatherops.com/how-does-subsidence-affect-weather

The Royal Society. (2020, March). 1. Is the climate warming? | Royal Society. Royal Society.
Retrieved April 20, 2023, from https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-
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Stull, R. (2016). UBC ATSC 113 - Tornadoes. UBC ATSC 113 - Tornadoes. Retrieved April 19,
2023, from https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/courses/atsc113/flying/met_concepts/04-
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US Department of Commerce, N. O. A. A. (2019, August 12). NWS JetStream - The 'Parcel'

Theory (weather.gov). NWS JetStream. Retrieved April 21, 2023, from
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%20Negative%20Energy&text=If%20the%20temperature%20of%20the,or%20even
%20reverse%2C%20the%20rise.