Professional Documents
Culture Documents
EXCURSION TO
FISCAL POLICY AND THE
BUDGETING PROCESS
Copyright © UNITAR, United Nations Institute for Training and Research, 2016,
on behalf of PAGE.
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Course authors:
Giuliano Montanari, Maya Valcheva, Amrei Horstbrink (UNITAR); Philip Gass (IISD)
Contributors:
Jason Dion (IISD); Sirini Withana (UN Environment); Sarwat Chowdhury, Massimiliano Riva
(UNDP).
Creative Concept:
Arturo Rago
Graphic Design:
Pilar Lagos (UNITAR)
Photo credits
Unless stated otherwise, the photos used in the journal are under a Creative Commons license.
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction 5
OVERVIEW 6
FUNCTIONS OF FISCAL POLICY 6
THE IMPORTANCE OF FISCAL SPACE 12
KEY DETERMINANTS OF FISCAL POLICY 13
OVERVIEW 25
DIFFICULTIES IN CREATING LINKAGE BETWEEN POLICY, PLANNING AND BUDGETING 25
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR GREEN FISCAL REFORM? 27
REFERENCES 30
ABBREVIATIONS 31
5
Introduction
G
reen fiscal reform (GFR) is an Given the learners´ diverse backgrounds and
approach to rearranging government the complexity of fiscal policies and national
spending and revenue with the budget issues, this optional preparatory
goal of advancing sustainable development Module aims to provide an introduction to the
objectives of countries. GFR is concerned fundamentals of fiscal policy and the national
with both fiscal policy and environmental budgeting process. Understanding these
policy. In general terms, fiscal policy is subjects is essential for grasping the scope of
responsible for organizing public financial objectives and instruments that green fiscal
flows in view of achieving specific national reform is concerned with. 1
objectives.
Lesson 1 of this introductory module centres
The national budget is a key mechanism for on the rationale for fiscal policy, while
implementing fiscal policies and influencing Lesson 2 examines central features of the
the behaviour of market actors within the national budgeting processes. Lesson 3
national economy. The budget is an official looks at linkages between policy, planning
government document, which compiles all and budgeting processes. If learners already
proposed fiscal policies, i.e. revenues and dispose of sufficient knowledge on these
expenditures, for the financial year. issues, they may proceed directly to Module 1.
1 Please note that this lesson is not meant to develop a comprehensive understanding of fiscal policy
and budgeting processes, but rather to highlight their relevance in the context of designing and
implementing green fiscal policies.
6
THE FUNDAMENTALS
OF FISCAL POLICY
Fiscal policy and the well-being of societies are closely intertwined. Societies
depend on the provision of a number of public goods, which are essential to
development. Governments use fiscal policy to ensure their provision.
OVERVIEW
In simple terms governments employ fiscal the main functions of fiscal policy and how it
policy to adjust public spending and taxation regulates the economy (Section 1.2). Section
in order to keep in check and influence the 2.2 explains what fiscal space is while Section
nation’s economy. This first lesson outlines 1.3 outlines key determinants of fiscal policy.
Fiscal policy is distinct from monetary policy, In light of these challenges, the traditional
through which an independent central bank threefold rationale formulated by Musgrave
influences the country’s money supply (1959) is still valid:
and controls the levels of interest rate and
inflation (IMF 2014). Fiscal policy aims to organize the allocation of
resources, advance macro-economic stability
In order to achieve national objectives, and address distributional disparities (Fig. 1).
governments need to ensure that certain
7
FISCAL POLICY
S TA B I L I Z A T I O N DISTRIBUTION ALLOCATION
Influencing economic Equality of Provision of basic
activity, sustainable opportunities, public goods for
public finances general fairness development
ALLOCATION FUNCTION
The allocation function refers to using fiscal public investments, subsidies, salaries to
policies to ensure that basic public goods and public staff, is determined in the national
services, such as infrastructural development, budget along the priorities laid out in
education, law enforcement, etc., are national development plans or administrative
provided for in society. This is necessary policies.
since the market rarely creates these goods
and services by itself (see Box 1). 1 Proper functioning of public services
enables the private sector to develop reliable
The amount of funds available for allocation business plans and make investments. Where
depends on the capacity of the government these public goods are not guaranteed,
to raise revenue, most commonly in the form market actors would be hesitant to make
of taxes or loans from financial markets The such long-terms investments that spur
actual allocation of these revenues, e.g. via innovation and create economic growth.
STABILIZATION FUNCTION
Fiscal policy is one of the economic Such behavior may be characterized both by
instruments available to government to assure overly optimistic or pessimistic expectations
a smooth functioning of the economy. about where the economy is going.
Fiscal policy can help stabilize the economy Stabilization implies short- and long-run fiscal
by minimizing excessive behavior, e.g. consideration (IMF 2012a).
excessive spending or saving, of market
actors as the economy evolves.
1 There are two types of public goods: Non-excludable and non-rivalrous goods. Non-excludability means
that it is impossible (or very costly) to exclude other persons from enjoying a certain good. For example,
it is impossible to restrict individual access to a clean air. Non-rivalrous goods are enjoyed by many at
the same time at no (or very little) additional costs. A scientific discovery, for instance, does not deplete
regardless of how many persons enjoy it. By contrast, a barrel of petrol would be considered a private
good since it can be consumed only once (rivalrous) while its owner can easily exclude others from its
benefits (excludable) (UNEP 2011).
8
In the short run, fiscal policy is concerned and affected sectors. In general, stimulus
with restraining spending when the economy measures after 2008 focused on liquidity
shows signs of overheating, i.e. creating injections to the banking sector, extending
excess demand, thus slowing it down to public infrastructure spending and temporary
more controllable levels. tax cuts to boost private demand (ILO 2011a).2
By contrast, increasing public spending In the long run, government budgets need
can also spur demand when the economy to adhere to sustainable ratios of revenue to
finds itself in a dangerous downward slide, spending. This is because large annual deficits or
thus raising the expectations of market a rapid build-up of public debt can themselves
participants that the economy will recover become a source of macroeconomic instability,
soon. leading consumers, producers or creditors to
mistrust the capacity of government to act in
The political response to the 2008 global the future.
financial crisis is a practical example of
macroeconomic stabilization through fiscal It should be noted that fiscal policy is just one
policy. Here, fiscal spending on a large scale, of the instruments to which governments can
also known as fiscal or economic stimulus, resort in order to stabilize the economy. In
was used to avert further deterioration other instances, monitary policies that aim
of national economies (see Figure 2 for to influence exchange rate, interest rates or
variation in regional responses). inflation, might be more appropriate.
Size and targeting of countries’ stimuli may
vary markedly due to national circumstances
BOX 1:
MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND THE PROVISION OF PUBLIC GOODS
In some cases governments may invest
in a particular infrastructure or industry As markets and technologies matured, e.g.
in early development stages when there cell phone coverage, and populations grew,
is little incentive for the private sector to many of the public-owned entities were
develop them. privatized since services could be provided
by market actors. Privatization, however,
For example, in Canada and many other needs to be carefully implemented in order
countries, railways and telecommunications to ensure quality of and sufficient access to
were originally public. This was due to the basic goods and services.
fact that in vast, sparsely populated regions
services needed to be provided as a public SOURCE: Boardman/Vining, 2012.
good at first as there was no market or case
to be made for private investment.
2 To a varying degree, stimuli also included dedicated funds to support greening of the economy (ILO 2011b). HSBC (2010)
estimates that around 16.3% of all fiscal measures was directed towards green stimulus by the end of 2009. In the Republic of
Korea, for example, nearly 80% of the total stimulus was categorized as ‘green’.
9
REFLECTION POINT
Can you think of specific fiscal measures that were used during the global financial
crisis in your country? What did they focus on?
10 9.1
5.9
6
4.3
4 3.4
2.6
Asia and the Pacific Africa and the Central and Eastern Advanced Latin America
(not including Japan Middle East European and Economies and the Carribbean
and the Republic of Former Soviet
Korea) Republics
Fig. 2: Economic stimulus in response to the global financial crisis as percent of 2008 gross domestic product (GDP)
(ILO 2011a)
10
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION
The distribution function refers to the need to countries such as the United States,
to improve the distribution of income, where lower taxation and more open markets
opportunities, assets and risks within the have indicated a trend to higher Gini figures
society. If not regulated, market activity tends (Figure 3). 3
to create social disparities that may conflict
with widely shared ethical values. Fiscal Policymakers have two main instruments at
distribution policy is thus a central expression their disposal to reduce income inequality.
of the concept of fairness and merit prevalent On the one hand, direct taxes may target
in an economic community. personal income and wealth, while indirect
taxes levy consumption. On the other
For example, countries in Northern Europe hand, cash transfers, i.e, direct government
traditionally favor a more equal distribution payments to poor or vulnerable groups, may
of income, reflected in higher tax transfers raise incomes of lower-income segments
through the social welfare system, as opposed (IMF 2015a). 4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Member of Occupy
Sweden Wall Street, a
movement that
Bulgaria started in 2011 to
protest against
Germany social and economic
inequality.
UK
Yemen
Bhutan
Togo
USA
Gabon
China
Argentina
Malaysia
Brazil
3 The Gini coefficient measures the distribution of income within a society. When the value is 0,
income distribution is perfectly equal. At value 1, one individual enjoys all income.
4
For an in-depth discussion about how fiscal policy can address inequality, consider IMF (2015b).
11
The distributional impact of income have to pay at least 10% tax regardless
taxes depends on its progressivity. In a of their income level. In other countries,
progressive tax system the income tax rate income tax rates may even become
rises with the increase in personal income. negative if personal income falls below
a specified level. This would result into
By contrast, if a tax system is regressive, money transfers to the individual if his/
the tax burden decreases in proportion to her income is below an established level
rising income levels (Figure 4). By most (Figure 5).
accounts, regressive taxation benefits the
rich and is considered unfair. Countries A fiscal system that is designed along the
may decide to set a minimum tax rate. thee functions covered in this section
allows its policymakers to make gradual
In Figure 4, the minimum tax level is set and controlled changes to the economic
at 10% for the progressive tax system, system, and is therefore a prerequisite for
meaning that everyone in society would achieving nationally determined objectives.
50
Regressive tax
40 system
Progressive tax
Tax rate (%)
system
30
20
10
Income
Fig. 4: Progressive and regressive taxation (with 10% minimum tax rate)
Retrieved from https://11cresma.wordpress.com/definitions-diagrams/
30
20
Tax rate (%)
10
0 Income
-10
-20
Fig. 5: Model of a hybrid tax system combining positive and negative tax rates.
12
REFLECTION POINT
How did the Gini coefficient develop in your country in recent years?
Does the tax system support poorer groups by taxing the affluent population?
BOX 2:
GOVERNING WITHOUT FISCAL SPACE
The experiences of several countries facing sustainability of public finances resulted in
major crises of public finance in Europe significantly higher costs for loans obtained
illustrate the difficulties related to lack of on financial markets for these countries.
fiscal space.
Notably, mismanagement of public
In the wake of the global financial finances prior to the meltdown amplified
meltdown of 2007-2008, Ireland, the crisis impact by gradually diminishing
Italy, Portugal and Greece have been fiscal space. The worsening of market
running considerable budget deficits in conditions for financing can quickly put
combination with high levels of public governments at the brink of bankruptcy
debt. In turn, loss of confidence in the
SOURCE: EC 2009.
5 Especially for developing countries, it also shaped by agreements with international finance institutions, such as the
World Bank, which may provide public funds under specific conditions.
13
MACROECONOMIC CIRCUMSTANCES
Economies are never static, which means Figure 6 below illustrates this cyclical nature
that fiscal policy needs to adjust accordingly of economies over the course of time.
to a constantly changing macroeconomic
environment. In a positive business cycle, increased levels
of investment and production lead to more
Free market economies tend to develop along employment, which increases the disposable
recurring business cycles (WB 2006). Within income of citizens, hence fueling consumption
the course of these business cycles, economic (Figure 7).
upturns, i.e. rising GDP, eventually slide into
economic downturns, and vice versa. In a negative business cycle, a decrease
in consumption reduces the means for
Upturns and downturns depend on a range further investments or the need to increase
of factors, such as changing income or trade production. This leads to less jobs being
patterns, price levels of commodity, housing, created and lower income for the population
manufacturing, etc. (Figure 8).
Actual growth
Growth trend
Output (GDP)
Downturn
Upturn
Time
6 The figure is simplified. For further discussion, please check the World Bank website.
14
Fig. 7:
POSITIVE BUSINESS CYCLE
LEADING TO RISING GDP EMPLOYMENT
INVESTMENTS CONSUMPTION/SPENDING
Fig. 8:
NEGATIVE BUSINESS CYCLE
LEADING TO SHRINKING GDP
LESS EMPLOYMENT
DEMAND
DECREASED
PRODUCTION DECLINING INCOME
SHRINKING
PROFITS DEMAND DECREASE
15
If unchecked, both upturns and downturns shared expectations that citizens and
can quickly turn into feedback loops that businesses develop about the future course of
destabilize the economy by virtue of widely the economy (see Box 3).
BOX 3:
BOOM AND BUST IN THE ECONOMY
Sudden economic crises, or busts, have The great economic disruptions of the
frequently hit developed and developing 1930s and late 2000s (and their preceding
countries in recent decades. Such crises expansions) are the two largest in a series of
were often preceded by phases of rapid crises that have hit modern economies in the
economic expansion, or boom. Although past.
economic observers are typically aware SOURCE: IMF 2012a
that phases of expansion and recession do
not last forever, but rather follow a cyclical
course, predicting the turning point
remains very difficult.
Fiscal policy can be an effective tool to thus reducing the likelihood of speculative
smooth the magnitude of business cycles, i.e. manias in the market (IMF 2012b).
keep the upper and lower peak of economic
activity in a healthy and manageable corridor. The same mechanism works in the opposite
direction, too. In the case of the economy
When economic indicators point to excessive showing signs of downward pressure, e.g.
private spending and production levels, e.g. through decreasing consumption and
via rapidly increasing inflation and investment investment levels, fiscal policy can intervene
patterns, fiscal policy can reduce or slow by raising government spending or cutting
down demand through, inter alia, higher taxes.
taxation, thus reducing the income prospects
of households and business. When the fiscal policy aims to run against
the business cycle, as described above, it is
In turn, these market participants are called countercyclical (IMF 2008)
expected to restrain their spending as well, (Figure 9).
16
Actual growth
Countercyclical
fiscal policy
Government
Output (GDP)
spending increases
Government
spending decreases
Growth trend
Time
Government engagement in the economy The role of public finance would be limited
also plays a major role in the regulation of in such a scenario. On the other hand,
supply and demand. While any government governments may be convinced that the
takes into account macroeconomic market does not effectively provide public
circumstances in its fiscal decision-making, goods, thus creating a responsibility for
states also select policies depending on the state to step in via public spending and
whether they generally play an active or taxation. In this scenario, the state would need
passive role in the economy (WB 2012). more revenue.
For instance, governments may choose The comparison in Box 4 between the
to leave the provision of goods, such as approaches to health care in the Netherlands
healthcare or education, to a large extent and the USA illustrates the different
to the market, thus minimizing the need for understandings regarding the role of the state
revenues and, subsequently, taxation. and its implications for the fiscal system.
BOX 4:
HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS IN THE NETHERLANDS AND THE USA
The Netherlands substantively reformed The United States, by contrast, deploys a
its health care system in 2006, which more mixed approach to medical care with
features mandatory universal coverage the primary source of insurance coverage
for basic treatments. being employer-sponsored insurance
(bought with pre-tax dollars). Private
The state makes sure that everyone medical spending is significantly higher –
has access to common health care and around 9 percent of GDP– to make up for
uses up to 10 percent of its GDP for it the lack of universal coverage. As a result,
(2013). Private medical spending is thus the country spends less public money on
moderate and accounts for 1 percent of health care, i.e. 8 percent.
GDP.
SOURCE: OECD 2015.
18
60
56.7
55
50
49
50
46.9
42
45
40.8 41.5
39.8
40
35
30.9
27.1 27.5
30
23.3 24.3
25
20
15
10
5
0
Chile
Thailand
Grenada
India
Vietnam
Algeria
Barbados
United States
Croatia
Ireland
Sweden
Netheralnds
Denmark
Fig. 10: Government total expenditure as percent of GDP 2011 (IMF 2012)
The total government expenditure (as percent Given the basic characteristics of fiscal
of GDP) reflects the share of public spending policy outlined above, policymakers
activities in the entire economy. The sectoral would need to take into account both
priorities of this spending, however, can differ macroeconomic dynamics and the role of
greatly from country to country. Figure 10 the state in providing public goods, when
gives a comparison between the levels of designing a green fiscal reform.
public spending in selected countries.
REFLECTION POINT
What is the role of public spending in your country? Which sectors does
the government spend most of its revenue on?
19
Overview
Now that we have become familiar and responsibilities enables policymakers
with some of the fundamentals of fiscal to identify which agents to address when
policy, let us look at national budgeting considering fiscal reform.
as a key instrument for public financial
management. This lesson features a brief description of the
budget cycle (2.2), before examining the
Understanding of national budget processes responsibilities in budget formulation (2.2),
will allow you to better assess the soundness the types of budget spending (2.3), basic
of budgets and identify the rules that steps towards obtaining budget approval (2.4),
demarcate what the budget can or cannot and the principles and rules for assessing the
do. Awareness of basic procedural steps effectiveness of budgets (2.5).
3.
EVALUATION
2.
BUDGET EXECUTION
7 Alternative depictions of the budget cycle may feature four distinct phases depending on regional
tradition, e.g. (1) planning, (2) budgeting, (3) expenditure and (4) performance assessment (see the
video link below). The terminology varies to some extent, i.e. formulation = preparation, execution
= expenditure, evaluation = policy review or reporting.
21
BOX 5:
IDENTIFYING RELEVANT AGENTS IN BUDGETING
- Who initiates spending proposals?
- Who has the power of amendment?
- Does the legislative have a budgeting committee? If yes, what are its powers?
- How are budgeting powers distributed within the executive?
- How many agencies are involved, and who does what?
- Who has veto powers at what stage of the budgeting process?
- Recurrent expenditure entails regular Returns may take the form of concrete
or periodic expenses (usually annually), revenues, e.g. taxes for new services or
such as salaries and general utilities. These infrastructure, or more broadly social
are used to fund ongoing administrative welfare gains, e.g. school buildings to expand
operations and include, for example, salaries education.
for civil servants and politicians.
4 NEGOTIATIONS
SUBMISSION
3 OF BIDS
BUDGET
2 CIRCULAR
ALLOCATION OF
1 TOTAL FUNDS
MACROECONOMIC
FRAMEWORK
8 The Public Financial Management Blog, run by the IMF, features latest global and national
developments on PFM reform efforts.
24
In short, the constitution, organic law and restrictions on how revenue and expenditure
financial regulations form the very legal can be used. 9
framework within which the annual national
budget – embodied by law – is prepared and The constitution of Chile, for instance,
approved. Knowledge of the legal framework prohibits fiscal earmarking, i.e. reserving
helps fiscal reformers identify potential revenue for a pre-defined purpose or agency.
9 The World Bank and IMF offer a joint Country Budget Law Database that enables quick access to a range of
national budget-related laws.
25
LINKING POLICY,
PLANNING AND BUDGETING
Although the linkage between policy, planning and budgeting seems
rather obvious, integrating it adequately in decision-making is challenging.
Mismatches between budgets and policies may arise as a result.
Overview
This lesson briefly introduces difficulties implications for designing and implementing
in linking policy, planning and budgeting green fiscal reform (3.2).
processes (3.1), as well as resulting
Planning and budgeting units work according Stronger institutional coordination is required
to different logics. Planning operates with to bridge the inherent differences between
long, multi-year time frames whereas various planning and budgeting processes.
budgeting focuses primarily on annual terms. Failure to create an institutional link, e.g.
26
through a policy coordination body 10, - Base planning and long-term policies on
easily can result in governance units working reliable cost projections;
in isolation from each other, with each - Give government agencies explicit authority
ministry seeking to maximize its bid. As a to implement plans;
consequence, one can often observe a stark - Set performance targets and milestones to
mismatch between needs and available funds monitor progress;
to deliver on them (WB 1998). - Establish procedures for updating planning
when conditions change substantially
Against this background, the following set - Be clear about national priorities to guide
of general guidelines can help align planning difficult budget decisions.
and budgeting (Box 6) and mitigate the
difficulties listed above (OECD 2013):
BOX 6:
AUSTRALIA’S RESPONSE TO BUDGET PRESSURES
In the early 1980s the Australian These measures helped legitimize and
government introduced public sector build consensus on reformulating policies,
reforms to improve policy coordination and leading to a more sustainable composition
expose unsustainable budgeting practices. of public expenditures. As a result, the
country budget deficit of four percent of
The government’s challenges were similar GDP turned into a surplus by the end of
to those facing many developing countries the decade (WB 1998).
today. Decision-makers had to manage
both an immediate fiscal crisis and rising
fiscal commitments of previous policies.
In the political arena, focus on short-term If governments and their budgets are not
results can be harmful to the legitimacy of sufficiently credible to ensure the longevity
GFR. Fiscal reforms require gradual and of green fiscal initiatives, newly instituted
predictable changes to the economy in order incentives may have very little effect on
to avoid political discontent or even social market participants, and are subject to later
unrest (OECD 2005; WB 2005). This repeal or weakening. In such a scenario,
relates also the realistic costing of policies. necessary investments in infrastructure and
product innovation are likely to be held back.
11 The role of interest groups and their positioning toward GFR is elaborated in more detail in Module 3.
29
key
learning points
1
Fiscal policies are instruments through which governments ensure that public goods and
services are provided to the citizens.
4
Coherence between budgeting processes and policy objectives is key for successful
implementation policy reforms.
30
REFERENCES
Boardman, A.E., and A.R. Vining . 2012. A review and assessment of privatization in Canada. Calgary.
European Commission. 2009. Economic Crisis in Europe: Caues, Consequences and Responses. Luxem-
bourg.
IDB. 2015. Public Financial Management in Latin America, The Key to Efficiciency and Transparency.
Washington, DC.
ILO. 2011a. A review of fiscal stimulus, EC-IILS Joint Discussion Paper Series, No. 5. Geneva.
—. 2011b. Green stimulus measures, EC-IILS Joint Discussion Paper Series, No. 15. Geneva.
IMF. 2015a. Harnessing the Power of Fiscal Policy to Mitigate Inequality. Washington, DC.
—. 2015b. Inequality and Fiscal Policy. Washington, DC.
—. 2015c. World Economic Outlook Database, October. Washington, DC.
—. 2015d. Guidelines for Public Expenditure Management. Washington, DC.
—. 2014. What is Monetarism? Washington, DC.
—. 2012a. Fiscal Policy: Taking and Giving Away. Washington, DC.
—. 2012b. What is Keynesian Economics? Washington, DC.
—. 2009. Capital Expenditures and the Budget, Technical Guidance Note. Washington, DC.
—. 2008. “Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool.” In World Economic Outlook, Ch. 5. Washington, DC.
—. 2005. Understanding Fiscal Space, Policy Discussion Paper 05/4. Washington, DC.
UNDESA. 2015. Improving ODA allocation for a post-2015 world. New York.
Abbreviations
EC European Commission
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFR Green Fiscal Reform
HSBC Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation
IDB Inter-American Development Bank
ILO International Labour Organization
IMF International Monetary Fund
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PFM Public Financial Management
UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
UNEP United Nations Environment
WB World Bank