Lesson 55

A large consumer goods company ran a television advertisement for one of its soap prod- ucts. On
the basis of a survey that was conducted, probabilities were assigned to the fol- lowing events.

B=¿ individual purchased the product

S=¿ individual recalls seeing the advertisement

B∩ S=¿individual purchased the product and recalls seeing the advertisement

The probabilities assigned were P ( B )=.20 , P ( S )=.40, and P ( B ∩ S )=.12.

a. What is the probability of an individual's purchasing the product given that the in- a.
dividual recalls seeing the advertisement? Does seeing the advertisement increase the
probability that the individual will purchase the product? As a decision maker, would you
recommend continuing the advertisement (assuming that the cost is reasonable)?
b. Assume that individuals who do not purchase the company's soap product buy from its
competitors. What would be your estimate of the company's market share? Would you
expect that continuing the advertisement will increase the company's market share? Why or
why not?
c. The company also tested another advertisement and assigned it values of P ( S )=.30 and
P(B ∩S )=.10. What is P(B | S) for this other advertisement? Which advertise- ment seems to
have had the bigger effect on customer purchases?

Answer:
a. Để tìm xác suất một cá nhân mua sản phẩm nếu họ nhớ lại đã xem quảng cáo, chúng ta có
thể sử dụng công thức
P ( B ∩ S ) 0.12
P ( B|S )= = =0.3
P(S) 0.40
Xác suất để một cá nhân mua sản phẩm nếu họ nhớ lại đã xem quảng cáo là 0,3. Xem quảng
cáo làm tăng xác suất mua hàng. Tôi khuyên bạn nên tiếp tục quảng cáo.
b. Để ước tính thị phần của công ty, chúng ta cần tìm xác suất để một cá nhân không mua sản
phẩm xà phòng của công ty.
P ( B )=1−P ( B )=1−0.2=0.8
Việc tiếp tục quảng cáo có thể làm tăng thị phần của công ty vì nó làm tăng khả năng các cá
nhân mua sản phẩm.
c. Tương tự câu a, ta có:
P ( B ∩ S ) 0.10
P ( B|S )= = =0.3333
P(S) 0.30
So sánh giá trị này với P(B∨S) của quảng cáo trước đó là 0,3, dường như quảng cáo đầu
tiên có tác động lớn hơn một chút đến việc mua hàng của khách hàng. Quảng cáo có giá trị
P(B∨S)lớn hơn cho thấy tác động lớn hơn đến việc mua hàng của khách hàng.

Leson 46
The Wall Street Journal/Harris Personal Finance poll asked 2082 adults if they owned a
home (All Business website, January 23, 2008). A total of 1249 survey respondents an-
swered Yes. Of the 450 respondents in the 18-34 age group, 117 responded Yes.
a. What is the probability that a respondent to the poll owned a home?
b. What is the probability that a respondent in the 18-34 age group owned a home?
c. What is the probability that a respondent to the poll did not own a home?
d. What is the probability that a respondent in the 18-34 age group did not own a
home?
Answer:
a. Let A be the event that the poll respondent owns a house,we have:
1249
P ( A )= =0.5999
2082
b. Let B be the event that survey respondents aged 18-34 own a house, we have:
117
P ( B )= =0.26
450
c. Let A be the event that the poll respondent did not own the house, we have:

P ( A )=1−P ( A )=1−0.5999=0.4001

d. Let B be the event that survey respondents aged 18-34 did not own the house, we have:

P ( B )=1−P ( B )=1−0.26=0.74
 Lesson 47
A financial manager made two new investments-one in the oil industry and one in municipal
bonds. After a one-year period, each of the investments will be classified as either
successful or unsuccessful. Consider the making of the two investments as an experiment.
a. How many sample points exist for this experiment?
b. Show a tree diagram and list the sample points.
c. Let O=¿ the event that the oil industry investment is successful and M =¿ the event that
the municipal bond investment is successful. List the sample points in O and in M .
d. List the sample points in the union of the events (O ∪ M ) .
e. List the sample points in the intersection of the events (O ∩ M ) .
f. Are events O and M mutually exclusive? Explain.
Answer:

a.In this experiment, there are two investments being made, each with two possible
outcomes (successful or unsuccessful). Therefore, the total number of sample points for this
experiment is 2 x 2 = 4.

b. Here is a tree diagram showing the sample points:

O M

S U S U

Note: S represents a successful investment, and U represents an unsuccessful investment

d. The sample points in event O (oil industry investment is successful) are: S, U .

The sample points in event M (municipal bond investment is successful) are: S, U .

d. sample points in the union of events (O ∪ M ) are: S,U .

e. The sample point that in the intersection of events (O ∩ M ¿ is ∅
f. No, events O and M are not mutually exclusive because they have a common sample point,
which is a successful investment. Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time,
but in this case, it is possible for both investments to be successful.