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Differences Between Green Bonds Versus Conventional Bonds
Differences Between Green Bonds Versus Conventional Bonds
ARTÍCULO 32:
ARTÍCULO 22:
• Hyun, S., Park, D., & Tian, S. (2019). Differences between green bonds
versus conventional bonds: An empirical exploration. Handbook of green
finance, sustainable development. Springer, Singapore, 91-134.
Differences Between Green Bonds Versus
Conventional Bonds 7
An Empirical Exploration
Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Green Bonds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Issuers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Investors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
Other Players Involved in Green Bonds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Differences Between Green Bonds and Conventional Bonds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
A Green Bond Premium Does Exist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
A Green Bond Premium Does Not Exist . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Empirical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Sample Construction Using the Matching Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Empirical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Summary and Policy Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
Abstract
This chapter empirically investigates how the green bond markets price green-
ness. Using the liquidity-adjusted yield premium of green bonds over their
synthetic conventional bonds, this study explores the possible determinants that
drive green bond premiums. Evidence shows that, on average, there is no
significant yield premium or discount on green bonds compared with their paired
conventional bonds. Interestingly, in the case of a subsample, such as the euro and
S. Hyun (*)
East Asia International College, Yonsei University, Wonju, Republic of Korea
e-mail: bigsuk@gmail.com
D. Park · S. Tian
Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, Asian Development Bank,
Manila, Philippines
e-mail: dpark@adb.org; stian@adb.org
the US dollar, to control for the currency effect, most explanatory variables are
not statistically significant, which suggests that a green bond premium does not
exist in dollar-denominated and euro-denominated bonds, while a green bond
premium does exist in other currency-denominated bonds. However, green bonds
are also not standardized instruments. Certain factors, like “greenness,” are
necessary to match the needs of issuers and investors. These factors might have
an impact on the price, liquidity, and volatility of green bonds.
Keywords
Green bond · Green premium · Market development
JEL Classification
G12 · G14 · G19
Introduction
The green bond market has grown rapidly over the past decade. It started with the
“climate awareness bond” issued by the European Investment Bank in 2007 as the
first green bond. A key catalyst for the subsequent market development was the
International Capital Market Association’s (ICMA) introduction of the Green Bond
Principles (GBPs) in January 2014. Although the green bond market has expanded
substantially since then, Ehlers and Packer (2017) showed that it is nevertheless still
very small compared to the wider global bond market, with a share of less than 1.6%
of the global debt issuance in 2016.
While the green bond market began to form in 2007, due to the lack of a globally
accepted definition and standards for green bonds, the nascent market faced two
issues. First, as Ehlers and Packer (2017) pointed out, while the GBPs and the
Climate Bonds Standard (CBS) serve as the general guidelines to distinguish
between green bonds and conventional bonds, due to the lack of enforcement
mechanisms, some countries have produced their own standards for regulating
green bonds. The European Union (2016) stated that the central bank of the People’s
Republic of China (PBoC) suggested its own version of what constitutes green
bonds in 2015 in lieu of the Green Bond Principles and Climate Bonds Standard.
This has led to the issue of heterogeneous data sets on green bonds and the problem
of the generation of green bonds that do not necessarily improve the environment.
Second, the green bond premium, which Zerbib (2017) defined as the difference in
yield between a green bond and an equivalent conventional bond, is not associated
with the impact that green bonds exert on the environment but the sizeable excess
demand. As VanEck (2017) asserted, whether projects are successful or not does not
affect the principal and the interest payment of green bonds.
Therefore, this chapter addresses the above issues as follows. Section “Green
Bonds” is devoted to understanding issuers and investors and the other players
involved in green bonds, since a thorough understanding of them could facilitate
further development of green bond markets and improve policy measurements.
7 Differences Between Green Bonds Versus Conventional Bonds 129
Section “Differences Between Green Bonds and Conventional Bonds” uncovers the
differences between green bonds and conventional bonds and addresses the deter-
minants of a green bond premium. Section “Empirical Analysis” focuses on the
measures and building blocks to develop further green bond markets.
Green Bonds
Green bonds, in short, are fixed-income securities that fund exclusively green pro-
jects with environmental or climate-related benefits. In most countries, any issuer
can label its bonds “green,” because only the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and
India have defined the term legally. In practice, issuers can label bonds “green” only
if they comply with the GBPs, the CBS, or the national guidelines and regulations
governing green bond issuance. Each national standard incorporates many or most
elements of the GBPs; however, there are some differences between them. There-
fore, more coordination is necessary to facilitate further development of green bond
markets. ICMA’s GBPs, which are a voluntary process and guidelines, best describe
the specific criteria and requirements underpinning the concept of green bonds.
Major private financial institutions compiled these under the aegis of ICMA
(2017). The GBPs guide prospective issuers on the four key components of green
bond issuance: (a) the use of proceeds, (b) the process for project evaluation and
selection, (c) the management of proceeds, and (d) reporting. Though external
review is not one of the main four GBPs, the 2015 edition of the GBPs recommended
that green bond issuers “use external assurance to confirm alignment with the key
features of green bonds”. This can include second opinions and verifications. From
2016, the Principles referred to “external reviews” rather than “external assurance,”
while the list of recommended external reviews expanded to include those that rating
agencies provide (ICMA 2017).
Once issuers have issued green bonds in accordance with the GBPs, certification
and scheduled reporting are necessary. If the proceeds from the green bonds do not
fund green projects, as the pre-issuance reports suggest, within 24 months of
issuance, then the issued bonds will lose their green status, according to Petrova
(2016). As investors do not have reliable data and analyses of the impact of green
bonds on the environment, all that investors may use as a yardstick with which to
discern what is green from what is not green is the green bond label.
According to the Asian Development Bank (2018), issuers in 38 jurisdictions had
brought green bonds to the market by the end of June 2017. In many countries, the
green bond issues are very limited in unlocking private investments, except for those
in the most established markets, such as the PRC, the US, and Europe. Although the
green bond markets have rapidly grown over the last 10 years since the European
Investment Bank’s first green bond in 2007, the Climate Bonds Initiative estimated
that $895 billion of climate-aligned bonds were outstanding in 2017, comprising
both labeled and unlabeled green bonds and amounting to $221 billion and $674
billion, respectively, in 2017. The labeled green bonds account for only 24.7% of the
130 S. Hyun et al.
climate-aligned bond universe, while the remaining 75.3% are unlabeled and gen-
erally non-investable, although they also contribute to a low-carbon economy.
Therefore, the lack of a common practice and definition might deter the further
development of green bonds enough to unlock the private sector’s issuance and
investment in green projects. For the green bond market to channel a significant
amount of funds into environment-friendly projects, green bonds should also meet
the needs of both issuers and investors at the same time.
Issuers
Green bonds are no different from conventional bonds, except that their proceeds are
earmarked for investment solely in certain green projects with environmental ben-
efits. Green bonds are also in general less liquid than conventional bonds, since
many investors in green bonds are long-term investors who seek incentives to protect
themselves against inflation risk, default risk, and market volatility. Therefore, most
green bonds offer tax privileges, guarantees, and letters of comfort to attract more
investors (Veys 2010). Although maintaining the green label helps reduce the
environmental risks for the issuer, the costs of providing scheduled reports and
recurring research and development (R&D) expenditure to become green may be
burdensome to small-sized green bond issuers. As the concerns in addressing
environmental risks associated with corporate finance increase, global reporting on
greenhouse gas emissions has become a requirement rather than an option. Standard
& Poor’s Ratings Services (2016) introduced the Carbon Disclosure Project on
behalf of 827 institutional investors, managing $100 trillion in assets, and the United
Kingdom (UK) government’s 2013 requirement for all UK-listed companies for
reporting greenhouse gas emissions.
Considering the same issuer, the risk characteristics of a green bond are essentially
identical to those of a conventional bond: while the proceeds from the issuance of a
green bond are earmarked for environment-friendly projects, the cash flows of the
entire operations of the issuer—not just the green project—service the green bonds.
Investors
Investors in green bonds do not purchase them only because they can hedge against
environmental risks for their portfolios. Investors check the indexes and reports that
the issuers provide to make their investment decision regarding green bonds. Investors
in green bonds are usually institutional investors, such as pension funds, insurance
companies, and so on. Treasurers like to offer green bonds since doing so diversifies
their investor base. When the market is volatile, a diverse portfolio deals better with the
volatility of the market. In many cases, fans of green bonds have no alternative
investment, since green bonds are insufficient to meet the increasing demand. Thanks
to oversubscription in the green bond market along with solid supporters of green
bonds, the pricing of green bonds is tighter than that of conventional bonds.
7 Differences Between Green Bonds Versus Conventional Bonds 131
For green bond issuance, there are four players who play different roles in the market
in addition to issuers and investors. They are the underwriters, the external
reviewers, the index providers, and other market intermediaries. Underwriters are
the financial institutions that set up the public issuance and distribution of the bonds.
Underwriters specify the terms, definitions, and obligations of the bonds. External
reviewers verify the greenness of the underlying projects. Index providers are not
directly involved in the issuance and distribution of the bond; however, they create
green bond indexes according to their own standards. In practice, a widely recog-
nized index provider’s inclusion of a green bond may add an extra inch of reliability
for investors. Lastly, other market intermediaries are optional in a way, since most
green bonds are traded over the counter (Östlund 2015).
132 S. Hyun et al.
Rating agencies and third-party auditors generally check the financial soundness
of bond issuers or projects. However, when it comes to green bonds, their main
objective is to check whether green bonds are environmentally responsible and
observe the eligibility criteria that they pledged to abide by at the time of issuance
(ADB 2018). Rating agencies, such as Moody’s, investigate green bonds and
climate-related bonds and assign quantitative scores to them based on their green-
ness. Both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings use a transparent scoreboard approach
to provide forward-looking opinions about the issuer’s effectiveness in meeting the
green criteria. In both cases, green bonds receive a grade, which assesses their
greenness. The green bond ratings are not credit ratings, which the agencies issue
separately. In the PRC, the China Chengxin International Credit Rating Company
has also developed a green bond methodology, which follows the GBP approach and
assigns one of five ratings to green bonds. While only a handful of issuers have
sought green ratings, both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings have made efforts to
develop their green bond assessment capabilities expecting that all issuers will look
for both a credit and a green rating soon.
The following section will analyze the differences between green bonds and
conventional bonds more thoroughly. These characteristics have implications for
the pricing of green bonds and their attractiveness to investors. A premium at
issuance over comparable bonds without a green label would indicate that a signif-
icant number of investors value the label, enough to give issuers an extra incentive to
issue bonds that have it. At the same time, these investors will still be interested in an
acceptable financial performance of green bonds over time.
Apart from the fact that green bonds require scrutiny by observing the GBPs and
strive to meet the requirements that the Climate Bonds Initiative suggested, VanEck
(2017) and Östlund (2015) insisted that they are not particularly different from
conventional bonds, especially in primary markets, where brokers must sell green
bonds to a large pool of investors buying both green bonds and conventional bonds.
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (2016) showed that green bonds’ trading occurs
near the yield spreads of conventional bonds. However, in secondary markets,
investors also consider the green bond label as a criterion for selecting bonds.
Therefore, the only way to assure investors that the bonds they are buying are
truly green bonds is for them to check the binding guidelines regulating green bonds’
issuance and maintenance. The PRC, for example, strongly limits the use of the
proceeds of green bonds to the environmental projects of the issuers only. In fact, the
country has two guidelines for overseeing green bonds: China’s Green Bond Guide-
lines and the PBoC’s Green Bond Endorsed Project Catalogue, according to the
European Union (2016). In Norway, on the other hand, for green bonds to maintain
their label, their issuers need to list them on Oslo’s Stock Exchange. The European
Union (2016) introduced Norway’s example of how to run green bonds. Norway
also requires green bonds to seek a second opinion for listing on the stock exchange.
7 Differences Between Green Bonds Versus Conventional Bonds 133
The issuer must make the result of the second opinion available to the public. Lastly,
the only certified green bond in Mexico underwent a second review in accordance
with the CBS. Whether a green bond premium exists or not has been a topic of fierce
discussion among economists. The chapter introduces the existing analyses of the
green bond premium to scrutinize the issue further.
To investigate the existence of a green bond premium, Zerbib (2017) used a matching
method, comparing each eligible green bond with two similar conventional bonds with
identical conditions, such as currency, rating, bond structure, seniority, collateral, and
coupon type. He started out with 681 green bonds complying with the GBPs on
30 December 2016; however, after filtering out the outliers and incomplete data, he selected
only 135 investment grade senior bullet fixed-coupon bonds for analysis. Zerbib (2017)
aimed to estimate the green bond premium and to identify its determinants. He found that
the average green bond premium was –8bps against conventional bonds within the whole
sample of investment grade bonds, –5bs in US dollar bonds and –2bps in euro bonds. He
drew attention to the presence of an excess demand for green bonds in the market.
Ehlers and Packer (2017) compared the credit spreads at issuance of a cross-
section of 21 green bonds issued between 2014 and 2017 with the credit spreads at
issuance of conventional bonds of the same issuers with the closest possible issue
date. They showed that green bond issuers on average have borrowed at lower
spreads than they have through conventional bonds. Their findings confirmed the
results from other recent studies, such as Barclays (2015) and Zerbib (2017).
Wulandari et al. (2018) investigated the relationship between the liquidity risk and the
yield spread for both green and conventional bonds. The evidence showed a positive
relationship between the liquidity risk and the yield spread. However, for green bonds,
the impact of liquidity risk on the yield spread has become negligible over time. Barclays
(2015) indicated in across-sectional analysis a–17 bps premium as of mid-2015. How-
ever, the historical returns of green bonds are like those of conventional bonds.
Östlund (2015) used a data set of 28 matching pairs of bonds from Bloomberg on
17 March 2015, focusing on the essence of a green bond premium defined as the
spread differentials between green bonds and conventional bonds of the same issuer.
The analysis tests the null hypothesis that there are no differences between green
bonds and conventional bonds. The results showed that indeed there is no evidence
of a green bond discount in the overall dataset. However, using the data for the year
2015, the mean difference was statistically significant at the level of 10%, and the
yield spread was 0.0758, indicating that conventional bonds have lower yields than
green bonds. The only case in which a green bond premium was apparent involved
the six green bonds related to the real estate industry.
134 S. Hyun et al.
Petrova (2016) conducted both panel regression analysis and timeseries analysis
to evaluate and compare the performance of green bonds and conventional bonds
during a sample period covering 2008–2016. After controlling for various possible
factors, such as default risk and term premium, and different time-series parameters,
no statistically significant difference between green bond and conventional bond
yields was documented.
Empirical Analysis
an equivalent conventional bond. The issuers are mainly among the most active bond
issuers in the market.
In the second step, we eliminate the maturity bias by building a data set consisting
of pairs of bonds: we assign one conventional bond with the closest characteristics to
each green bond. We retrieve the bid and ask yields of the green bonds and the
corresponding conventional bonds from Bloomberg on 10 November 2017. Since
this study focuses on the investors’ demand and the issuers’ supply of green bonds,
we focus on the ask yields of each bond to ensure a more precise analysis.
Descriptive Statistics
Considering the green bond issuance by sector in our data set by using the BICS
level 1 of the Bloomberg classification, Figure 1 shows that the government and the
finance sectors are the major issuers of green bonds. Although corporate (others)
activity has grown recently, it is still limited.
Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of all the green bonds and conventional
bonds in our data set and definitions of variables are listed in Table A1. All the
statistics show no statistically significant differences between the 123 pairs of green
bonds and conventional bonds except for the amount issued. For example, while the
mean of the issue amount of green bonds is $639 million, the mean of the issue
amount of conventional bonds is $1.18 billion. Considering the issue amount by
sector, significant variations are observable in the issue amount of the government
and the finance sectors. However, statistically significant differences are not apparent
in the case of utilities and other sectors in Tables A2, A3, A4 and A5 in the appendix.
Statistically significant differences in amount issued are apparent in the case of the
US dollar and the euro as seen in Tables A6–A7 in the appendix. The difference in
the issue amounts can affect the liquidity of green bonds and conventional bonds.
Therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact of the difference between them on
the liquidity to calculate the green bond premium.
136
Table 2 indicates the average amount of green bonds and conventional bonds
issued in each currency. It shows that the average amounts of green bonds and
conventional bonds issued are statistically different, which suggests the existence of
different levels of liquidity. For example, while an average issue amount for green
bonds is $624 million, that of conventional bonds is $1.26 billion. In the case of the
euro, while the average amount issued for green bonds is $937 million, that of
conventional bonds is $1.59 billion. Therefore, when we specify the empirical
model, we also consider the impact of currency.
Empirical Analysis
Table 3 shows each green bond’s average yield with time, depending on the rating
and the currency of issuance. The average euro green bond yields are much lower
than those of emerging countries, such as Turkish lira(TRY), Mexican pesos(MXN),
or Indian rupees (INR). Significant variations are observable in the yield levels,
mainly between the various issue currencies.
The first step in our calculation of the green bond premium is to determine
whether a green bond is cheaper (discount) or more expensive (premium) than an
equivalent conventional bond. Based on the above statistics, the difference in yield
between a green bond and the equivalent conventional bond might have a liquidity
bias that results from different amounts issued in comparison with other character-
istics. To correct the impact of the different amounts issued of green bonds and
conventional bonds, we design a proxy variable as the liquidity difference between a
138 S. Hyun et al.
green bond and a conventional bond in line with Zerbib (2017), who used the spread
between the ask yield and the bid yield as a liquidity indicator. We, therefore, define
the green bond premium as the regression residual unexplained by the liquidity
difference between green bonds and conventional bonds. The bid–ask spread proxy
that we use to control for the difference in liquidity proves to be statistically
significant as seen in Table 4.
Figure 2 shows that the green bond premium is concentrated around zero, and a
low standard deviation is observable. This indicates that the first liquidity control on
the amounts issued and the date of issuance in the data construction procedure yields
satisfactory results. The distribution of the green bond premium ranges from –0.49%
to +0.54%, with a mean and a median value of near 0 bps (basis point) and –73.17
bps, respectively, and 51% of the premiums in our sample are negative.
7
Premium
18
16
16 16
14
12
12
10 11 11
8
8 8
6 7
4 5 5
4 4 4
2 3 3
0 2 0 2 0 0 2 0
0
Differences Between Green Bonds Versus Conventional Bonds
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.05
0.15
0.25
0.35
0.45
0.55
-0.45
-0.35
-0.25
-0.15
-0.05
Figure 2: Distribution of Green Bond Premiums. (Source: Authors)
139
140 S. Hyun et al.
In the second step, we attempt to identify the determinants of the green bond
premium. Table 5 shows each green bond’s average yield with time, depending on
the rating and the currency of issuance and the amount issued. We base the
estimation on the structural part of the curve (yield) and the specific characteristics
of each bond. We construct the following specification in which the impacts of the
rating, the maturity, the issued amount, and the group to which the bond belongs are
the same in all currencies. Specifically, we express the maturity in years and the
issued amount in US dollar with the reference date of 10 November 2017 and the
exchange rate that applied on that date. We use the level 1 Bloomberg classification
(BICS level 1) for the sector group. Government includes municipalities; regional
and sovereign agencies; and national, supranational, and multilateral development
banks. In addition, Utilities and Financial encompass nonpublic banks and financial
services. The specification considers nonlinearities, such as Issued Amount2i and
Maturity2i , based on Zerbib (2017).
The empirical results that we obtain for the whole sample show that the structural
part of the equation (yield) does not play a significant role; the yield is not statisti-
cally significant, while the issued amount is statistically significant in all the spec-
ifications. The issued amount negatively impacts the green bond premium, in
contrast to the results of Zerbib (2017). The larger the issued amount is, the lower
the green bond premium becomes. Financial bonds show a 6.9–15.5 bps premium
below the reference level (government group). However, in the case of a subsample,
such as the euro and US dollar in Tables A8 and A9, to limit the currency effect, most
explanatory variables are not statistically significant, which suggests that a green
bond premium does not exist in US dollar-denominated and euro-denominated
bonds, respectively, in Tables 6 and 7 while a green bond premium does exist in
other currency-denominated bonds.
The negative green bond premium highlights the fact that the buying pressure
relative to the supply capacity is greater in the case of green bonds than in the case of
conventional bonds. These market phenomena result from an excessive investment
demand due to the characteristic of green bonds and an insufficient volume of bond
issuances. The negative green bond premium leads to a favorable situation for green
bond issuers, which prioritizes a green project instead of a conventional project, due
to a lower cost of capital. Nevertheless, this situation poses two problems. First, it
reveals the structural lack of green projects. Second, a negative green bond premium
subdues the appetite of institutional investors that have not set up a binding floor for
green assets in their strategic asset allocation.
Source: Authors.
Table 6: Results of the Step 2 Regression (OLS): US Dollar Sample
142
Dependent variable: green bond premium (residual terms of the step 1 regression)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
AskYLD 0.046 0.005
(0.921) (0.030)
TimeToMaturity (years) 0.058 0.053
(1.629) (1.038)
TimeToMaturity_Square (years) –0.005 –0.005
(–1.524) (–1.220)
AmtIssued ($ billion) –0.285 –0.259 –0.176 –0.130 –0.077
(–0.605) (–0.534) (–0.370) (–0.263) (–0.142)
AmtIssued_Square 0.080 0.057 0.014 –0.003 –0.038
(0.302) (0.207) (0.051) (–0.010) (–0.125)
Rating_AA 0.011 0.038 –0.007 0.019 0.009
(0.136) (0.485) (–0.095) (0.231) (0.093)
Rating_A 0.002 0.127 –0.018 0.091 0.069
(0.035) (1.288) (–0.256) (0.893) (0.376)
Rating_BBB –0.043 0.046 –0.066 0.013 0.040
(–0.549) (0.447) (–0.827) (0.121) (0.207)
Group_Utilities –0.071 –0.101 –0.083 –0.086 –0.066
(–0.586) (–0.657) (–0.687) (–0.556) (–0.360)
Group_Financials –0.082 –0.165* –0.085 –0.142 –0.121
(–1.314) (–1.776) (–1.353) (–1.483) (–0.993)
Intercept –0.112 –0.114 0.131 –0.006 0.010 –0.006 0.139 0.115 0.084 –0.036
(–0.984) (–1.637) (0.742) (–0.170) (0.345) (–0.172) (0.759) (0.649) (0.454) (–0.101)
N 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
R2 0.0193 0.0600 0.0600 0.0091 0.0438 0.0836 0.0765 0.1070 0.1285 0.1678
Adjusted R2 –0.0035 0.0153 0.0152 –0.0634 –0.0017 –0.0339 –0.0419 0.0177 –0.0364 –0.0770
S. Hyun et al.
T statistics in parenthesis calculated from robust standard errors. ***, **, and * denote significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.
Source: Authors.
7
green bond premium, which is defined as the yield difference between a green bond
and an equivalent conventional bond after controlling for the difference in liquidity
by using a matching method in line with Zerbib (2017). The main objective of the
article is to determine the value of the green bond premium and to identify its major
determinants.
Our empirical results indicate that on average there is no significant premium for
green bonds relative to conventional bonds. The empirical results that we obtain for
the whole sample show that the yield is not statistically significant while the issued
amount is statistically significant in all the specifications. The issued amount nega-
tively impacts the green bond premium, in contrast to the results of Zerbib (2017).
The larger the issued amount is, the lower the green bond premium becomes.
Financial bonds show a 6.9–15.5 bps premium below the reference level (govern-
ment group). Interestingly, in the case of a subsample, such as the euro and US
dollar, to control for the currency effect, most explanatory variables are not statis-
tically significant, which suggests that a green bond premium does not exist in US
dollar-denominated and euro-denominated bonds while a green bond premium does
exist in other currency-denominated bonds.
Like conventional bonds, green bonds are not standardized instruments, and
certain factors, like “greenness,” are necessary to match issuers’ and investors’
needs. These factors might impact the price, liquidity, and volatility of green
bonds. Therefore, for further research to construe the pricing mechanism of green
bonds, it should incorporate the definition and measurement of “greenness” into the
empirical analysis with a larger data sample. One limitation of this study is also due
to the quality of the data; since green bonds are not frequently traded, a bond yield
sometimes does not accurately reflect its fair value.
Going green does not mean sacrificing the yield because some institutional
investors are not willing to pay a green bond discount. The excessive demand, rather
than the environmental impacts, has driven the current premium. Essentially, to
make green bonds more attractive and desirable than conventional bonds, issuers
should monetize externalities like the environmental benefits generated from green
projects for investors in green bonds. Yoshino and Abidhadjaev (2016) insist that it
is possible to measure the spillover effects from the tax increment that infrastructure
projects generate through the difference-in-difference method, which the issuer can
internalize as an additional return for investors and not by increasing the issuer’s
burden.
On the demand side, a sufficiently large, committed demand from institutional
investors would lower the cost of capital for green projects. There is a good
opportunity for issuers to expand their funding capacity for green projects, thanks
to ethical investors who are willing to sacrifice some of the yield to participate in
environment-friendly projects. The urgent need to finance the change to a
low-carbon economy makes green bonds more attractive and essential investments
based on ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria. More green bonds
7 Differences Between Green Bonds Versus Conventional Bonds 145
would help economies meet the huge green investment needs to cope with climate
change and mitigation.
The supply of green bonds should increase to provide the huge amount of green
investments required for climate change. The European Union (2016) pointed out
five main bottlenecks in the supply of green bonds that issuers need to address to
remove the hindrances to green bond market development: (a) the lack of green
bonds and green project pipelines, (b) the lack of aggregation mechanisms for
green projects, (c) the lack of green bond definitions and framework, (d) the lack of
information and market knowledge, and (e) the lack of a clear risk profile for green
investments.
The lack of commonly recognized standards in the green bond market especially
has limited the universe of institutional investors, who are ethically mandated to
invest in green bonds since the standardization of green bonds’ definition and
framework is ongoing. However, external reviewers and issuers are cooperating to
establish more up-to-date methods to track the proceeds from the green bonds and
their impact on the environment. The ASEAN Capital Market Forum (2017) has
recently developed the ASEAN Green Bond Standards based on ICMA’s GBPs,
which are internationally accepted and widely used for the development of national
green bond guidelines or standards issued globally. The expectation is that this
regional standardization and harmonization will facilitate the further development
of the green bond market.
Appendix
Dependent variable: green bond premium (residual terms of the step 1 regression)
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
AskYLD 0.046 0.005
(0.921) (0.030)
TimeToMaturity (years) 0.058 0.053
(1.629) (1.038)
TimeToMaturity_Square (years) –0.005 –0.005
(–1.524) (–1.220)
AmtIssued ($ billion) –0.285 –0.259 –0.176 –0.130 –0.077
(–0.605) (–0.534) (–0.370) (–0.263) (–0.142)
AmtIssued_Square 0.080 0.057 0.014 –0.003 –0.038
(0.302) (0.207) (0.051) (–0.010) (–0.125)
Rating_AA 0.011 0.038 –0.007 0.019 0.009
(0.136) (0.485) (–0.095) (0.231) (0.093)
Rating_A 0.002 0.127 –0.018 0.091 0.069
(0.035) (1.288) (–0.256) (0.893) (0.376)
Rating_BBB –0.043 0.046 –0.066 0.013 0.040
(–0.549) (0.447) (–0.827) (0.121) (0.207)
Group_Utilities –0.071 –0.101 –0.083 –0.086 –0.066
(–0.586) (–0.657) (–0.687) (–0.556) (–0.360)
Group_Financials –0.082 –0.165* –0.085 –0.142 –0.121
(–1.314) (–1.776) (–1.353) (–1.483) (–0.993)
Intercept –0.112 –0.114 0.131 –0.006 0.010 –0.006 0.139 0.115 0.084 –0.036
(–0.984) (–1.637) (0.742) (–0.170) (0.345) (–0.172) (0.759) (0.649) (0.454) (–0.101)
N 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
R2 0.0193 0.0600 0.0600 0.0091 0.0438 0.0836 0.0765 0.1070 0.1285 0.1678
Adjusted R2 –0.0035 0.0153 0.0152 –0.0634 –0.0017 –0.0339 –0.0419 0.0177 –0.0364 –0.0770
Source: Authors.
S. Hyun et al.
7
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