Chapter 4

Some Discrete Probability Distributions

By

Dr. A. Mustafa
 Chapter 4. Some discrete probability Distributions. By Dr. A. Mustafa 1

In this Chapter, we shall investigate several important discrete probability distributions

that describe most random variables encountered in practice.

1- Uniform Distribution
The simplest of all discrete probability distributions is one where the random variable
assumes all its values with equal probability.

Definition 1. If the random variable X assumes the values x1, x2, …, xn , with equal
probability, then the discrete uniform distribution is given by
1
f (x ) = , x = x 1 , x 2 ,K, x n
n

2- Binomial Distribution
A binomial experiment is one that processes the following properties:
1. The experiment consists of n repeated trials.
2. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure.
3. The probability of success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial.
4. The repeated trials are independent.

Definition 2. The number X of success in n trials of a binomial experiment is called a

binomial random variable.
Definition 3. If a binomial trial can result in a success with probability p and a failure with
probability q =1– p, then the probability distribution of the binomial random variable X,
the number of successes in n independent trials, is
⎛n⎞
b( x; n , p) = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ p x q n − x , x = 0,1, 2, ... , n.
⎝x⎠

Example 1. The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a given
shock test is ¾ . Find the probability that exactly two of the next four components tested
survive.
Solution. Let X denote the number survival components,

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 Chapter 4. Some discrete probability Distributions. By Dr. A. Mustafa 2

p = P(survive) =3/4 , n = 4 . Then X has a binomial distribution

⎛n⎞
b(x; n , p ) = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ p x q n − x , x = 0,1, 2, 3, K, n , p + q = 1.
⎝x⎠
Therefore
2 2
⎛ 3⎞ ⎛ 4 ⎞⎛ 3 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ 27
P[X = 2]= b⎜ 2; 4, ⎟ = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = .
⎝ 4⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠⎝ 4 ⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠ 128

The mean and the variance of the binomial distribution with parameters n, p are
μ = np and σ 2 = np(1 − p)

Example 2. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If
15 people are known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
(a) at least 10 survive,
(b) from 3 to 8 survive,
(c) exactly 5 survive?
Solution. Let X be number of patients that survive (recovers from a rare blood) and
p = P(survive) = 0.4 . Then X has the binomial distribution with probability mass function
⎛n⎞
b( x; n , p) = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ p x q n − x , x = 0,1, 2, 3, K, n , p + q = 1.
⎝x⎠
where n = 15, p = 0.4, q = 1- p = 0.6.
(a) The probability that at least 10 survive. Then
P[X ≥ 10] = 1 − P[X < 10]
9 9 ⎛ 15 ⎞
= 1 − ∑ b( x;15, 0.4) = 1 − ∑ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ 0.4 x 0.615− x
x =0 x =0 ⎝ x ⎠

= 1 − 0.9662 = 0.0338

(b) The probability that from 3 to 8 patients survive

8
P[3 ≤ X ≤ 8] = ∑ b( x;15, 0.4)
x =3

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 Chapter 4. Some discrete probability Distributions. By Dr. A. Mustafa 3

8 ⎛ 15 ⎞
= ∑ ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ 0.4 x 0.615− x = 0.8779
x =3 ⎝ x ⎠

(c) The probability that exactly 5 survive. Then

⎛ 15 ⎞
P[X = 5] = b( x;15, 0.4) = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ 0.4 5 0.610 = 0 0.1859
⎝5 ⎠

3- Poisson Distribution

A Poisson experiment is one that processes the following properties:

1. The number of successes in one time interval or specified region are independent of
those occurring in any other disjoint time interval or region of space.
2. The probability of a single success occurring during a very short time interval or in a
small region is proportional to length of the time interval or the size of the region and
does not depend on the number of success occurring outside this time interval or
region.
3. The probability of more than one success occurring in such a short time interval or
falling in such a small region is negligible.
Definition 4. The number X of successes in a Poisson experiment is called a Poisson
random variable.
Definition 5. The probability distribution of the Poisson random variable X, representing
the number of successes occurring in a given time interval or specified region, is
e−μ μx
p ( x; μ ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., .
x!

Where μ is the average number of successes occurring in the given time interval or
specified region and e = 2.71828
Example 3. The average number of radioactive particles passing through a counter
during 1 millisecond in a laboratory experiment is four. What is the probability that six
particles enter the counter in a given millisecond?

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 Chapter 4. Some discrete probability Distributions. By Dr. A. Mustafa 4

Solution. Let X be the number of radioactive particles passing through a counter during
1 millisecond. Then, X is Poisson random variable with

e−μ μx
p ( x; μ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., μ = 4.
x!

The probability that six particles enter the counter in a given millisecond .Then
e − 4 46
p(6; 4) = = 0.1042
6!

Example 4. The average number of oil tankers arriving each day at a certain port city
is known to be 10. The facilities at the port can handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is
the probability that on a given day tankers will have to be sent away?
Solution. Let X be the number of tankers arriving each day. Then X is a Poisson
random variable with,
e−μ μx
p ( x; μ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., μ = 10
x!

• The probability that on a given day tankers will have to be sent away, then
P[X >15] = 1 − P[X <15]
15 15 e −10 10 x
= 1 − ∑ p( x; 10) = 1 − ∑
x =0 x =0 x!

=1 − 0.9513 = 0.0487

The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution p( x; μ) both have the value μ .
Theorem
Let X be a binomial random variable with probability distribution b( x; n, p) . When
n → ∞ , p → 0 , and μ = np remains constant. Then

b ( x; n , p) → p( x; μ ) .

Example 5. In a certain manufacturing process in which glass items are being

produced, defects or bubbles occur, occasionally rendering the piece undesirable for
marketing. It is known that on the average 1 in every 1000 of these items produced has
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 Chapter 4. Some discrete probability Distributions. By Dr. A. Mustafa 5

one or more bubbles. What is the probability that a random sample of 8000 will yield
fewer than 7 items possessing bubbles?
Solution. This is essentially a binomial experiment with n = 8000 and p = 0.001. Since
p is very close to zero and n is large, we shall approximate with the Poisson distribution
using μ = 8000 (0.001) = 8 . Hence, if X represent the number of bubbles, we have
6
P[X > 7] = ∑ b( x; 8000, 0.001)
x =0

6
≅ ∑ p( x ; 8) = 0.3134
x =0

4- Negative Binomial and Geometric Distributions

Definition 6. The number X of trial to produce k successes in a negative binomial
experiment is called a negative binomial random variable.
Definition 7. If repeated independent trials can result in a success with probability p and a
failure with probability q = 1 − p , then the probability distribution of the random variable X,
the number of trial on which the kth successes occurs is given by

⎛ x − 1⎞ k x − k
b * ( x; n , p) = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ p q , x = k , k + 1, k + 2, ... .
⎝ k − 1⎠

Example 6. Find the probability that a person tossing three coins will get either all
heads or all tails for the second time on the fifth toss.
Solution. Let X be the number of trials (tossing) until get either all heads or all tails for
the second time. Then X is negative binomial random variable,
⎛ x − 1⎞ k x − k
b * ( x; n , p) = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ p q , x = k , k + 1, k + 2, ... , k = 2
⎝ k − 1⎠
2 1
With, p = P(success) = P( all heads or all tails) = = ,
8 4
3
q = 1− p = ,
4

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 Chapter 4. Some discrete probability Distributions. By Dr. A. Mustafa 6

2 3
1 ⎛ 4⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ ⎛ 1 ⎞ 27
P[X = 5]= b * (5; 2, ) = ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ ⎜ ⎟ ⎜ ⎟ = .
4 ⎝ 1⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠ ⎝ 4 ⎠ 256

• The mean and variance of the negative binomial distribution with parameters k and
p are
k kq
μ= and σ 2 = 2 .
p p

Definition 8. If repeated independent trials can result in a success with probability p and a
failure with probability q = 1 − p , then the probability distribution of the random variable X,
the number of trial on which the first success occurs is given by
g ( x; p) = p q x −1 , x = 1, 2, 3, ... .

Example 7. In a certain manufacturing process it is known that, on the average 1 in

every 100 items is defective. What is the probability that 5 items are inspected before a
defective item is found.
Solution. Let X be the number items selected before defective item. Then X is a
geometric random variable,
g ( x; p) = p q x −1 , x = 1, 2, 3, ...

with
p = P(success) = P(defective item found) = 0.01, q = 1- p = 0.99.
The probability that 5 items are inspected before a defective item is found. Then

P[X = 5]= g (5; 0.01) = (0.01) (0.99) 4

= 0.0096

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 Chapter 4. Some discrete probability Distributions. By Dr. A. Mustafa 7

EXCERSICE 4

1. Define the binomial, Poisson, and geometric experiment,

2. The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is 0.09. What is
the probability that exactly five of the next seven patients having this operation
survive?
3. A random committee of size 3 is selected from four doctors and two nurses. Write a
formula for the probability distribution of the random variable X representing the
number of doctors on the committee. Find P( 2 ≤ X ≤ 3).
4. From a lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at random and fired. If a lot contains 3
defective missiles that will not fire, what is the probability that
(a) All 4 will fire?
(b) At most 2 will not fire?
5. From a group of five men and three women on the committee of size 3 selected at
random. If X represents the number of women on the committee, find the mean and
variance of X.
6. On the average a secretary makes two typing errors per page. What is the probability
that she makes
(a) Four or more errors on the next page she types?
(b) No errors?
7. Three people toss a coin and the odd man pays for the coffee. If the coins all turn up
the same, they are tossed again. Find the probability that fewer than four tosses are
needed.

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