You are on page 1of 19

NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter

Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366


Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Newsletter for the week ending 13 June 2008

THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:


Page

1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:


Before the Trade: The Sentiment Cycle …… 2
By Teresa Lo, founder of PowerSwings.com

2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 7
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 8
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 9
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 10

iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 11


Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 12
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 13
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 14
v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) …….. 15
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 16
3. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 17

Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 19

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1


1. Trading/Investment Related Articles:
Before the Trade: The Sentiment Cycle.
By Teresa Lo, founder of PowerSwings.com

You might be wondering why we need to take a detour to discuss The Sentiment Cycle. Surely
mechanical trading is designed to do away with emotions, right?

Yes, a good trading system helps us stay the course and do the right thing. It prevents us from
chasing performance, from loading the boat at the top. A good trading system does not allow us to
experience the trauma of puking at the bottom after a long downtrend by virtue of using stops and
position sizing. A good trading system frees us from our worst fears -- the fear of losing and of
missing out.

"If you make a bad trade and you have money management you are really not in much trouble.
However, if you miss a good trade there is nowhere to turn. If you miss good trades with any
regularity you're finished." -- William Eckhardt

Buying high and selling low is not the way to go, but human nature makes it hard to resist doing it
because we are simply designed to feel most confident and have the most conviction to act when
there is a massive amount of public opinion that concurs with the fundamentals, along with
widespread agreement that a big trend is in place. Contrarians tend to be way too early and often
experience the old "light at the end of the tunnel is the on-coming train" phenomenon. By and large,
the typical human "gut" is simply not geared for trading.

"Human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The
desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 2


against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may
even be inversely related to performance. Two of the cardinal sins of trading -- giving losses too
much rope and taking profits prematurely -- are both attempts to make current positions more likely
to succeed, to the severe detriment of long-term performance. Don't think about what the market's
going to do; you have absolutely no control over that. Think about what you're going to do if it gets
there." -- William Eckhardt

We tend to worry too much about making the trade at hand work out for us as if we want bragging
rights or something. Let's not forget that each trade is inconsequential in the big picture (unless
every trade is a loser!) because the goal is to make as much money -- over a reasonably long run --
with as little risk as possible. If you don't believe me, read the papers on Prospect Theory. One of
the best ones was "The Diversification Puzzle" by Meir Statman published on the PowerSwings site.

Because each of us will conduct many transactions over the course of a lifetime, we can't get worked
up about every single one of them. Some will make money; some will lose money, but -- if I know
that my approach is correct and my methodology is sound -- the only thing I need to do with the
trade in front of me is make sure that it will not be the one to put me out of business.

We have to keep the ball moving toward the end zone, but we can't go for the 90-yard "only in the
movies" touchdown attempt every time. Most often, the hardworking team grinds it out play by play
-- a few steps forward, one step back. Always be defensive. Recover those fumbles.

The Mamis Sentiment Cycle

The following is an exerpt from my book, The Ultimate Trading Course. I discuss Justin Mamis'
writing in his classic, The Nature of Risk:

What we have (in Chart 14 of The Nature of Risk) is essentially a graphical


representation of the manic depressive moods typically experienced by
market participants as a function of time and price in one complete
sentiment loop. There are two areas in a typical loop where the market
does something that traders describe as 'churn' or 'chop', and two areas
where directional trends are found.

RETURNING CONFIDENCE
On the upside, the area where churning takes place is in between the
Returning Confidence phase and the Subtle Warning phase, after a
significant advance has already taken place. This often appears in the form
of a head and shoulders top on weekly or monthly charts. By the time
confidence returns, the market has already been going up for ages while
the retracement patterns become ever larger, each one scarier than the
last.

To technical traders, this type of price action tells us that the market is
getting tired. Perceived bull market volatility excites investors. They waited
forever on the sidelines for fundamentals to confirm that the move up was
'real'. The coast is finally clear and they jump in with both feet. This phase
typically ends with a failure on test of top, and the big, super scary 'buy

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 3


the dip' pullback begins.

BUY THE BIG DIP


The public continues to pour money in, lured by glowing good news and
economic data. After the long move up, finding attractive stocks becomes
difficult for technical traders and market veterans. Traders chase
momentum where they find it. Investors believe that the game is back on,
and they are willing to take big risk and buy big dips. This Big Dip usually
comes after a failed test of top in the Returning Confidence phase. The Big
Dip typically takes price below the 50-day simple moving average and,
quite often, to the 200-day moving average. This is where ABC Corrections
are typically found.

ENTHUSIASM
Once it is widely accepted that economic and corporate fundamentals are
supporting higher prices, a bell goes off. The bull survived The Big Dip.
Those who had previously been afraid now have plenty of reasons -- and
proof -- that it is safe to go back into the market and buy again.

At this point, we detect a subtle change in psychology, a shift from the fear
of loss to the fear of missing out, and the appetite for risk becomes
evident. Investors buy on faith, bolstered by analyst and media reports
projecting the trend to continue. As price rises to new highs, they all
scream, "It's a breakout!" They are supremely confident that the best is
yet to come.

The high made in the Returning Confidence phase typically marks the
'point of breakout' and becomes an important psychological number. We
know this high is where sellers showed up before, and if price should sink
below this area, traders and investors might come to the conclusion that
the breakout failed, and therefore, begin selling in case the uptrend is
approaching the point where it starts to bend.

At some point, all the buyers who want to be in the market have bought,
and they stop buying. Smart money begins to take some off the table. The
net result is rotation of buying and selling from sector to sector, causing
the major stock indexes to stop going up in any meaningful way and price
charts to churn and chop. In the old days, they called this 'distribution',
marking the transfer of stock from smart to dumb money, from strong to
weak hands. This area is where a buildup of participants in position to write
sell tickets takes place. If price fails to move up or it comes back under the
point of breakout, selling begins.

DISBELIEF
The market fails to go higher, and indeed many of the early leaders have
broken down under the 50-day moving average, giving technicians the
Subtle Warning. This marks the beginning of the 'something is not right'
gut feeling, but in the absence of bad news, investors hold on to hope. Not

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 4


only are they heavily invested in the market, they are psychologically
invested in being right, and they ignore anything that does not go with
their worldview. Indeed, they even wonder aloud why their beloved stocks
cannot go up amidst good news, higher earnings guidance and analyst
upgrades.

OVERT WARNING TO PANIC


The area of sustained directional trending price action to the downside
takes place is between the Overt Warning and Panic phases. There will be
some sort of catalyst. Perhaps it is an earnings warning or some point of
economic data that leads the crowd to finally clue in that the nagging
negative price action they have been watching is the beginning of
something big and bad.

The 200-day moving average is broken, and CNBC alerts investors.


Everyone knows that the ship is sinking. Those who bought in the churning
top realize they are holding the bag and stop buying the dips. Smart
money shorts each failing bounce. Stop losses are hit, and margin calls
force liquidation. Supply simply overwhelms demand and price action
becomes a one-way street.

DISCOURAGEMENT AND AVERSION


After a long price slide, the area where churning takes place is between the
Discouragement and the Aversion phase, after a significant decline has
already taken place. Often, this appears as a head and shoulders bottom, a
cup and handle or a saucer dish pattern. As the public continues to dump
stocks, short sellers become bold and bearish. Their views are supported
by bad news and poor economic data. Prognostication of lower prices to
come is undoubted. This is when everyone knows that the market cannot
ever go up again, and that anything, even cash, is preferable to owning
stocks.

WALL OF WORRY
While the broad indices are still going down, certain sectors will have
bottomed. At some point, everyone who wants to sell has done so, and the
selling stops. Low prices and relative value returns, and early buyers with
deep pockets begin to nibble at the market. The net effect is that the major
stock indexes stop plunging and begins to dribble or moves sideways.

This area is where we find a buildup of participants in position to write buy


tickets, producing potential buy pressure. With sellers gone, the market
even goes up on bad news. Rallies are labeled as 'technical bounces' or are
written off as 'short covering'. Short positions add more on every bounce,
confident that lower prices are around the corner. When good news trickles
in, it is summarily dismissed as aberrations, subject to revision next
month.

AVERSION TO DENIAL

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 5


Sustained directional trending action to the upside begins between the
Aversion phase and the Denial phase. As the market slowly creeps up, the
shorts start to sweat while those who don't own a piece of the action vow
to themselves that they will get in on the next dip that they believe is sure
to come. The market continues higher and does not let them in.

More and more bids materialize as buyers show up again while shorts
begin to cover. Since there are not many sellers overhead, the move up
can be big and fast, and on low volume. If it keeps going, eventually those
left behind in the dust have to get in again, and the loop continues.

CONCLUSION
Take note of the way churning precedes trending as an entire group of
market participants are trapped in the wrong direction. Indeed, we could
argue that trends can only take place after a large group of market
participants have been lulled into believing the status quo will last
infinitely. When the reversal finally takes place, the ensuing mad scramble
becomes a directional trend.

The sentiment loop neatly summarizes the market and all its associated
psychosis in a nutshell. I use the word psychosis on purpose, as it is
medically defined as "a loss of contact with reality, typically including
delusions (false ideas about what is taking place or who one is) and
hallucinations (seeing or hearing things which aren't there)." It is the only
way to describe the things that people do at the tops and bottoms. It is
similar to how some people break with reality when playing games such as
Dungeons and Dragons, and their existence enters another realm. What we
must do is to know where we are on the map at all times and maintain a
separate sense of self by standing on the outside as impartial observers.
That is the only way to preserve sanity and to make money.

To succeed in the long run, we have to become Zen Masters in the financial media circus. We pay
attention to our own work. We conduct our own research, and when the market experiences bouts of
mania and depression, we examine it with a practiced clinician's approach to working up a patient --
assessing blood pressure, pulse, blood work and the like to determine the state of the patient's
health.

Because there are clear phases in the sentiment loop, we need to know about them in order to
determine the "what" and "when" to buy and sell. Each of us can make certain policy decisions. In
my opinion, the Discouragement and Aversion phases are the best spots to buy for position trades
while the area between the Buy the Big Dip and the Overt Warning phases exhibits clear signs to
lighten up long positions. A swing trader might be more inclined to look at other phases for
appropriate opportunities.

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 6


2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
Technical Analysis as of 13/06/2008

Basic Price information


Close: 1,229.35

Trend Analysis
MACD (-12.0675)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.

Moving Averages 10-day(1,239.1420), 30-day(1,266.5216), 60-day(1,257.6270), 100-day(1,295.8767).


SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 7


Immediate Support: 1,214.3700
Longer term Support: 1,214.3700
Immediate Resistance: 1,276.5500
Longer term Resistance: 1,305.0900

100 day SMA Resistance: 1,295.8767


200 day SMA Resistance: 1,333.7271

Stochastic(20.9362) is currently slightly oversold and is getting higher.

Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.

Bar Chart Patterns


Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days

Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.

Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile

Volume Analysis
Volume: 170,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 207,967 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group

An immediate technical rebound is expected

The up trend rally since March, when the KLCI was about 1,200 points found heavy resistance at the 1,300
points level. The movement formed a toppish pattern called the double top or bearish reversal. It was
confirmed when the KLCI broke below the double top formation neckline at 1,270 points and the tightening
Bollinger Bands started to explode. The KLCI is now at 1229.35 points.

The KLCI is now slightly oversold in the short term as the Stochastic indicator has gone below the 30 level. An
immediate technical rebound is expected but may face resistance at 1,250 points (which is the current down
trend line support level). It is expected to continue its down trend because the momentum indicators, like RSI
and MACD shows strong bearish momentum. Next support level is at 1,200 points. The 1,300 points resistance
level remains the main resistance for the KLCI.

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 8


ii) FT Singapore Straits Times Index (FTSTI)
Technical Analysis as of 13/06/2008

Basic Price information


Close: 2,979.56

Trend Analysis
MACD (-32.6903)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.

Moving Averages 10-day(3,093.0959), 30-day(3,154.7446), 60-day(3,120.9468), 100-day(3,062.8220).


SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish

Support and Resistance Analysis


Immediate Support: 2,978.5801
Longer term Support: 2,978.5801
Immediate Resistance: 3,214.6399

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 9


Longer term Resistance: 3,269.8799

100 day SMA Resistance: 3,062.8220


200 day SMA Resistance: 3,298.8567

Stochastic(9.2574) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: Bullish Harami was detected 2 days ago
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.

Bar Chart Patterns


Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: Key Reversal UP was detected yesterday
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days

Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.

Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile

Volume Analysis
Volume: 165,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 221,300 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group

A indicators are currently supporting the down trend

The STI found heavy resistance at 3,500 points level after rallying from its major support level at 2,750 points
in March. The resistance caused the STI to pull back to close at 2,979.56 today. The STI which was between
the short to long term averages weeks ago now goes back under the average and this indicates that the trend
is continuing downwards and the momentum indicators are currently supporting the down trend.

Although an immediate technical rebound is expected because the Stochastic indicator is below the oversold
scale below 30, the STI may find short term down trend line resistance at 3,160 points. If the STI is able to
break above this resistance, then there is a high chance of it testing the major support level at 2,750 points.

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 10


iii) Thailand SET Index
Technical Analysis as of 13/06/2008

Basic Price information


Close: 782.64

Trend Analysis
MACD (-13.9968)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.

Moving Averages 10-day(801.5770), 30-day(835.2320), 60-day(830.0928), 100-day(820.2891).


SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Bearish

Support and Resistance Analysis


Immediate Support: 782.3600
Longer term Support: 782.3600
Immediate Resistance: 875.5900

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 11


Longer term Resistance: 886.5700

100 day SMA Resistance: 820.2891


200 day SMA Resistance: 828.8433

Stochastic(4.8186) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.

Bar Chart Patterns


Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days

Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.

Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (11.8807) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile

Volume Analysis
Volume: 400,230,016 shares, 30-day average volume: 477,894,304 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group

SETI is currently at a crucial Fibonacci retracement level

After a good up trend rally since January this year, when the SETI was at about 740 points, the SETI finally
met its resistance at 890 points last month. Since then, the SETI slid downwards to 782.34 points today. This
slide accounts for a 62% retracement from the up trend rally. Unlike other markets which have found may
support levels during the downward rally, the SETI only found once in early June and the rally only lasted two
days before the down trend resumes.

With the strong downward momentum the SETI is expected to slide further to test its main support level at
739 points. However, a slight technical rebound is expected immediately because the SETI is currently at a
crucial Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) and the Stochastic has indicated an oversold position and this is
the second time the Stochastic crosses above its trigger line. The rebound may be short-lived as the SETI may
find resistance at 800 points.

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 12


iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)
Technical Analysis as of 13/06/2008

Basic Price information


Close: 22,592.30

Trend Analysis
MACD (-454.6202)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.

Moving Averages 10-day(23,884.0234), 30-day(24,826.5566), 60-day(24,285.6523), 100-


day(24,058.8145).
SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish

Support and Resistance Analysis


Immediate Support: 22,592.3008
Longer term Support: 22,592.3008

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 13


Immediate Resistance: 25,128.4395
Longer term Resistance: 26,387.3691

100 day SMA Resistance: 24,058.8145


200 day SMA Resistance: 25,630.8359

Stochastic(7.1237) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.

Bar Chart Patterns


Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days

Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.

Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile

Volume Analysis
Volume: 1,499,591,040 shares, 30-day average volume: 1,981,677,184 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group

The HSI is heavily oversold

The China market, which heavily affects the Hong Kong market other than the US market, has been bearish
since its peak in October last year and the index was slashed more than half and is expected to continue to
decline, given its strong bearish momentum. The Hong Kong market HSI however has shrinked 30% from its
peak in October last year. Earlier this March, the HSI made a good short term up trend run of 25% from
21,000 points to the 26,400 points resistance level. The HSI has then started to decline and is currently at
22,590.30 points.

Like the Thailand SET index, the HSI is currently at the crucial Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) and the
Stochastic indicator, which is now below 10, is indicating that the HSI is heavily oversold. Therefore, an
immediate technical rebound is expected but may be only a short while because the down trend momentum is
still strong. The HSI may find immediate resistance (from the down trend line) at 24,000 points.

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 14


v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)
Technical Analysis as of 13/06/2008

Basic Price information


Close: 12,307.35

Trend Analysis
MACD (-135.6141)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.

Moving Averages 10-day(12,321.4189), 30-day(12,642.1963), 60-day(12,622.8164), 100-


day(12,498.0400).
SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Bearish

Support and Resistance Analysis


Immediate Support: 12,076.9297
Longer term Support: 12,076.9297

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 15


Immediate Resistance: 12,726.6602
Longer term Resistance: 13,136.6904

100 day SMA Resistance: 12,498.0400


200 day SMA Resistance: 12,944.2725

Stochastic(15.3935) is currently oversold and is getting higher.

Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.

Bar Chart Patterns


Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: Key Reversal UP was detected yesterday
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days

Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed above its %D today.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.

Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile

Volume Analysis
Volume: 247,978,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 225,071,408 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group

A little more room to move upwards

The uncertainty in the US economy because of fear of rising inflation resulted from increasing commodity price
especially the crude oil has taken its toll on the US stock market. The heavily benchmarked US DJI has
affected the performance of other markets around the world. After finding a strong support level at 11,700
points level, the DJI climb strongly upwards since March this year but found a strong resistance at 13,100
points level. A bearish reversal pattern (indicating toppish market) called a double top was formed at this
resistance level and it was confirmed and the DJI is now at 12,307.35 points.

A strong upward rebound in the past two days may send a positive note to markets worldwide but the down
trend resistance level is at 12,400 points, leaving it a little more room to move upwards. The DJI is not
expected to break above this resistance because the momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD are
indicating a strong bearish momentum has started to develop and may send the DJI to its main support level
at 11,700 points in the longer term.

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 16


3. Regional Traders Education Events this week
MALAYSIA

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 17


HONG KONG

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 18


________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) and NextView Traders Club (NVTC) are NOT a licensed
investment advisors. This publication, which is generally available to members of NVTC, falls under Media Advice provisions. These
analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing
how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your
personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant, your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without
regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse
backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from
your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for
the reader alone to decide. The author, contributors and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the
purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of anything done or omitted to be done by any such
person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither NextView Sdn Bhd
(including offices in other countries) nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person
directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is
copyright and for the sole use of NVTC Members. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. This is
not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analyzed in real time on a weekly basis. NextView Sdn Bhd does not
receive any commission or benefit from the trading activities undertaken by readers, or any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed
in the newsletter. NextView Sdn Bhd is an independent financial education organization and research is supported by NVTC annual
membership fees.

OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
#02-03/05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808. Thailand: The Millennia Tower, 18th Floor, Unit 1806, 62 Langsuan Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok,
10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 98 Liuhe Road, 16A GangLu
HuangPu Center Building, Shanghai 200001

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 19

You might also like