Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 7
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 8
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 9
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 10
You might be wondering why we need to take a detour to discuss The Sentiment Cycle. Surely
mechanical trading is designed to do away with emotions, right?
Yes, a good trading system helps us stay the course and do the right thing. It prevents us from
chasing performance, from loading the boat at the top. A good trading system does not allow us to
experience the trauma of puking at the bottom after a long downtrend by virtue of using stops and
position sizing. A good trading system frees us from our worst fears -- the fear of losing and of
missing out.
"If you make a bad trade and you have money management you are really not in much trouble.
However, if you miss a good trade there is nowhere to turn. If you miss good trades with any
regularity you're finished." -- William Eckhardt
Buying high and selling low is not the way to go, but human nature makes it hard to resist doing it
because we are simply designed to feel most confident and have the most conviction to act when
there is a massive amount of public opinion that concurs with the fundamentals, along with
widespread agreement that a big trend is in place. Contrarians tend to be way too early and often
experience the old "light at the end of the tunnel is the on-coming train" phenomenon. By and large,
the typical human "gut" is simply not geared for trading.
"Human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of a gain. The
desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works
We tend to worry too much about making the trade at hand work out for us as if we want bragging
rights or something. Let's not forget that each trade is inconsequential in the big picture (unless
every trade is a loser!) because the goal is to make as much money -- over a reasonably long run --
with as little risk as possible. If you don't believe me, read the papers on Prospect Theory. One of
the best ones was "The Diversification Puzzle" by Meir Statman published on the PowerSwings site.
Because each of us will conduct many transactions over the course of a lifetime, we can't get worked
up about every single one of them. Some will make money; some will lose money, but -- if I know
that my approach is correct and my methodology is sound -- the only thing I need to do with the
trade in front of me is make sure that it will not be the one to put me out of business.
We have to keep the ball moving toward the end zone, but we can't go for the 90-yard "only in the
movies" touchdown attempt every time. Most often, the hardworking team grinds it out play by play
-- a few steps forward, one step back. Always be defensive. Recover those fumbles.
The following is an exerpt from my book, The Ultimate Trading Course. I discuss Justin Mamis'
writing in his classic, The Nature of Risk:
RETURNING CONFIDENCE
On the upside, the area where churning takes place is in between the
Returning Confidence phase and the Subtle Warning phase, after a
significant advance has already taken place. This often appears in the form
of a head and shoulders top on weekly or monthly charts. By the time
confidence returns, the market has already been going up for ages while
the retracement patterns become ever larger, each one scarier than the
last.
To technical traders, this type of price action tells us that the market is
getting tired. Perceived bull market volatility excites investors. They waited
forever on the sidelines for fundamentals to confirm that the move up was
'real'. The coast is finally clear and they jump in with both feet. This phase
typically ends with a failure on test of top, and the big, super scary 'buy
ENTHUSIASM
Once it is widely accepted that economic and corporate fundamentals are
supporting higher prices, a bell goes off. The bull survived The Big Dip.
Those who had previously been afraid now have plenty of reasons -- and
proof -- that it is safe to go back into the market and buy again.
At this point, we detect a subtle change in psychology, a shift from the fear
of loss to the fear of missing out, and the appetite for risk becomes
evident. Investors buy on faith, bolstered by analyst and media reports
projecting the trend to continue. As price rises to new highs, they all
scream, "It's a breakout!" They are supremely confident that the best is
yet to come.
The high made in the Returning Confidence phase typically marks the
'point of breakout' and becomes an important psychological number. We
know this high is where sellers showed up before, and if price should sink
below this area, traders and investors might come to the conclusion that
the breakout failed, and therefore, begin selling in case the uptrend is
approaching the point where it starts to bend.
At some point, all the buyers who want to be in the market have bought,
and they stop buying. Smart money begins to take some off the table. The
net result is rotation of buying and selling from sector to sector, causing
the major stock indexes to stop going up in any meaningful way and price
charts to churn and chop. In the old days, they called this 'distribution',
marking the transfer of stock from smart to dumb money, from strong to
weak hands. This area is where a buildup of participants in position to write
sell tickets takes place. If price fails to move up or it comes back under the
point of breakout, selling begins.
DISBELIEF
The market fails to go higher, and indeed many of the early leaders have
broken down under the 50-day moving average, giving technicians the
Subtle Warning. This marks the beginning of the 'something is not right'
gut feeling, but in the absence of bad news, investors hold on to hope. Not
WALL OF WORRY
While the broad indices are still going down, certain sectors will have
bottomed. At some point, everyone who wants to sell has done so, and the
selling stops. Low prices and relative value returns, and early buyers with
deep pockets begin to nibble at the market. The net effect is that the major
stock indexes stop plunging and begins to dribble or moves sideways.
AVERSION TO DENIAL
More and more bids materialize as buyers show up again while shorts
begin to cover. Since there are not many sellers overhead, the move up
can be big and fast, and on low volume. If it keeps going, eventually those
left behind in the dust have to get in again, and the loop continues.
CONCLUSION
Take note of the way churning precedes trending as an entire group of
market participants are trapped in the wrong direction. Indeed, we could
argue that trends can only take place after a large group of market
participants have been lulled into believing the status quo will last
infinitely. When the reversal finally takes place, the ensuing mad scramble
becomes a directional trend.
The sentiment loop neatly summarizes the market and all its associated
psychosis in a nutshell. I use the word psychosis on purpose, as it is
medically defined as "a loss of contact with reality, typically including
delusions (false ideas about what is taking place or who one is) and
hallucinations (seeing or hearing things which aren't there)." It is the only
way to describe the things that people do at the tops and bottoms. It is
similar to how some people break with reality when playing games such as
Dungeons and Dragons, and their existence enters another realm. What we
must do is to know where we are on the map at all times and maintain a
separate sense of self by standing on the outside as impartial observers.
That is the only way to preserve sanity and to make money.
To succeed in the long run, we have to become Zen Masters in the financial media circus. We pay
attention to our own work. We conduct our own research, and when the market experiences bouts of
mania and depression, we examine it with a practiced clinician's approach to working up a patient --
assessing blood pressure, pulse, blood work and the like to determine the state of the patient's
health.
Because there are clear phases in the sentiment loop, we need to know about them in order to
determine the "what" and "when" to buy and sell. Each of us can make certain policy decisions. In
my opinion, the Discouragement and Aversion phases are the best spots to buy for position trades
while the area between the Buy the Big Dip and the Overt Warning phases exhibits clear signs to
lighten up long positions. A swing trader might be more inclined to look at other phases for
appropriate opportunities.
Trend Analysis
MACD (-12.0675)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 170,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 207,967 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
The up trend rally since March, when the KLCI was about 1,200 points found heavy resistance at the 1,300
points level. The movement formed a toppish pattern called the double top or bearish reversal. It was
confirmed when the KLCI broke below the double top formation neckline at 1,270 points and the tightening
Bollinger Bands started to explode. The KLCI is now at 1229.35 points.
The KLCI is now slightly oversold in the short term as the Stochastic indicator has gone below the 30 level. An
immediate technical rebound is expected but may face resistance at 1,250 points (which is the current down
trend line support level). It is expected to continue its down trend because the momentum indicators, like RSI
and MACD shows strong bearish momentum. Next support level is at 1,200 points. The 1,300 points resistance
level remains the main resistance for the KLCI.
Trend Analysis
MACD (-32.6903)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: Bullish Harami was detected 2 days ago
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 165,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 221,300 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
The STI found heavy resistance at 3,500 points level after rallying from its major support level at 2,750 points
in March. The resistance caused the STI to pull back to close at 2,979.56 today. The STI which was between
the short to long term averages weeks ago now goes back under the average and this indicates that the trend
is continuing downwards and the momentum indicators are currently supporting the down trend.
Although an immediate technical rebound is expected because the Stochastic indicator is below the oversold
scale below 30, the STI may find short term down trend line resistance at 3,160 points. If the STI is able to
break above this resistance, then there is a high chance of it testing the major support level at 2,750 points.
Trend Analysis
MACD (-13.9968)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (11.8807) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 400,230,016 shares, 30-day average volume: 477,894,304 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
After a good up trend rally since January this year, when the SETI was at about 740 points, the SETI finally
met its resistance at 890 points last month. Since then, the SETI slid downwards to 782.34 points today. This
slide accounts for a 62% retracement from the up trend rally. Unlike other markets which have found may
support levels during the downward rally, the SETI only found once in early June and the rally only lasted two
days before the down trend resumes.
With the strong downward momentum the SETI is expected to slide further to test its main support level at
739 points. However, a slight technical rebound is expected immediately because the SETI is currently at a
crucial Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) and the Stochastic has indicated an oversold position and this is
the second time the Stochastic crosses above its trigger line. The rebound may be short-lived as the SETI may
find resistance at 800 points.
Trend Analysis
MACD (-454.6202)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 1,499,591,040 shares, 30-day average volume: 1,981,677,184 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
The China market, which heavily affects the Hong Kong market other than the US market, has been bearish
since its peak in October last year and the index was slashed more than half and is expected to continue to
decline, given its strong bearish momentum. The Hong Kong market HSI however has shrinked 30% from its
peak in October last year. Earlier this March, the HSI made a good short term up trend run of 25% from
21,000 points to the 26,400 points resistance level. The HSI has then started to decline and is currently at
22,590.30 points.
Like the Thailand SET index, the HSI is currently at the crucial Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) and the
Stochastic indicator, which is now below 10, is indicating that the HSI is heavily oversold. Therefore, an
immediate technical rebound is expected but may be only a short while because the down trend momentum is
still strong. The HSI may find immediate resistance (from the down trend line) at 24,000 points.
Trend Analysis
MACD (-135.6141)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed above its %D today.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 247,978,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 225,071,408 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist of NextVIEW Group
The uncertainty in the US economy because of fear of rising inflation resulted from increasing commodity price
especially the crude oil has taken its toll on the US stock market. The heavily benchmarked US DJI has
affected the performance of other markets around the world. After finding a strong support level at 11,700
points level, the DJI climb strongly upwards since March this year but found a strong resistance at 13,100
points level. A bearish reversal pattern (indicating toppish market) called a double top was formed at this
resistance level and it was confirmed and the DJI is now at 12,307.35 points.
A strong upward rebound in the past two days may send a positive note to markets worldwide but the down
trend resistance level is at 12,400 points, leaving it a little more room to move upwards. The DJI is not
expected to break above this resistance because the momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD are
indicating a strong bearish momentum has started to develop and may send the DJI to its main support level
at 11,700 points in the longer term.
OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
#02-03/05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808. Thailand: The Millennia Tower, 18th Floor, Unit 1806, 62 Langsuan Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok,
10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 98 Liuhe Road, 16A GangLu
HuangPu Center Building, Shanghai 200001