Green gi chatGPr at 1) ANE WOR THELet's get real Aloe ae eee ae Ue en Oo rea Teel Kel Wo Re Ruled CaM TRUNK ease CMa era ud Coltri Cte ROR tt ee Sere Ce RU Ru eet elec Cla) but seemingly unlimited. Real strategies for Lo OR Tott NCNM ee) CNT UC koa is upending industries. Meee ate Roe ar) eM Cam tatoos { Nt EN BERN BAIN & COMPANY @)THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 From the editor Democracy in danger Multipolar disorder Middle East in turmoil Whither Ukraine? America's fateful choice ‘The world economy [At goes to work ‘The green transition Beware “stealthflation DRAWING ON 2024 ‘he year ahead in colour SUPERFORECASTS 20 Forecasts for key events CONTENTS a Ab UNITED STATES CHINA, se temerelsls I Pes Unpopularity contest ‘Who towatch America’s economy Stretched superpower Free speech online ‘Small towns get bigger 39 Anundeclared cold war End of the road? Xiand the yes-men Cchina’s economy Foreign firms’ woes Disaffected youth, Cricket in America Cities get hotter MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA ‘Niall Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice on the new cold war Beyond Gaza Despots v democracy The Palestinians’ future Middle Eastern music ‘THE AMERICAS B Iran's future Latin America’s politics | 48 Africa's economies ‘Mexican democracy 49. Chaosin the Sahel Thriving startups 550 South Africa's election Canadian polities INTERNATIONAL asta 51 How torigan election 52 Global temperatures 2 India’s election 133 Green metals Indian technology Taiwan's election Central Asia's Energy linkages Indonesia afterJokowi 38 S. Jaishankar on India’s Expanding Brics Deep-sea mining, Anew arms race? Regulating a1 How we did in 2023 growing influence rd Ieizis iss iste & ba 65 66 6 a EUROPE Ukraine fights on ‘Russia's perpetual war ‘Trouble in the Caucasus Baltics and Nordies Politics and Olympics Centrists v populists Europe's economies Dara Massicot on Ukraine’ trauma Britain votes Tories in trouble Britain's economy Ditching the King The ailing NS Rachel Reeves on Labour's economic plans ‘The World Ahead, The Adelphi -nJohn Adam Street, London WCAN GHT. +44 (0)20 78307000, econamist.com/worldahead2024 dahoadedto Gieconomist.com. Editorial close date: November 37d 2023,4 CONTENTS THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 “TRENDLINES FINANCE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY GRAPHIC DETAIL ‘G Aspecial section of trends | 83 Stronglabour markets ‘91 What's next for at 4101 There is more to towatch, in charts 434 Global minimum tax ‘92 Fighting obesity democracy than voting '85 Poor countries’ debt ‘93, New drugs to watch BUSINESS 485 Rollercoaster markets ‘94 The yearin space OBITUARY Bi Decarbonising industry | 38 Trade and tariffs 95 Asolar eclipse 4102 Reflections on 7 Energy islands |89 Are entral bank digital | 95 Aglobal crop pandemic paperlessness 75 Companies adopt at currencies dead? 96 Jennifer Holmgrenon 76 Thenext tech platform | $9 Commodities to watch reinventing the carbon 76 vs-china chip wars economy ‘77 Chinese evs pull ahead 7 Going backto the office ‘CULTURE 7 Tourism rebounds 97 a’simpact on Hollywood 9 indian investment ‘a8 New museums 49 Self-driving cars '99, Books to watch for ‘80 Decoupling from China ‘99 Musicals’ moment ‘& TimnitGebru on labour 300 African architecture and at 100 Musicin China|At Morgan Stanley, we may seem like a contradiction—and we are. ‘At 88 years old, we see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you see CET UM Cus y working with you to make them real. EU LU RO Oe a ROC Cm Casa OC innovate, and collaborate to transform a company, an industry, a generation. Because grit and vision working in OSCR CURL EURO [Le full potential. morganstanley.com/whyus f YET mn “4 Sr eee at Investing ite ik nelang he pot lasof pina ines Morgan StanleyThe World Ahead 2024 From the editor (FE COMES at you fast. /whether it's the upsurge in armed conflict, the redrawing of the global energy-resources ‘map or rapid progress in artificial intelligence (a1), the ‘world is changing at mind- boggling speed. From the situation in the Middle Eastto theadoption of electric vehicles o the treatment of ‘obesity, things look very ferent from the way they did justa year ortwoago. Ouraim isto help you keep your worldview up todate—and tell you what might becoming next. To kick things off, here are ten themes towatch in the ‘coming year. 4. Vote-a-ramat Elections ll over the world, for ‘more voters than ever before, will puta spotlighton the slobal state of democracy. ‘There will be more than 70 elections in 2024 in countries thatare home toaround 4.2bn people—forthe first time, more than half of the global population. But while there Is more voting than ever, there is not necessarily more democracy: many elections ‘willbe neither free nor fair. 2. America’s global choice. Voters, and the courts, will give their verdicts on Donald Trump, who hasaone-in-three ‘chance of regaining the presidency. The result may comedown toa few tens of thousands of voters ina handful of swing states. But the consequences will be slobal, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. Indeed, lection-rigging in Russia may ‘mean Viadimir Putin's fate depends more on American voters than Russian ones, 3. Step up, Europe. ‘Accordingly, Europe must step upand provide Ukraine with the military and economic backingneeded fora long fight, while layingout a path, towards eventual Eu member- ship. This isthe right thing t0 ddo, as well as insuring against the risk that MrTrump regains power and withdraws support 4. Middle East turmoil. Hamas's attackon Israel, and IsraeV’s retaliation against Gaza, have upended the region and scotched the idea that the ‘world could continue to ignore the Palestinians’ plight. Willit becomea wider regional ‘onflict—or offera new chance for peace? For America, the overstretched superpower, this isalsoatestof whether itcan adapt toa more complex and threatening world. 5. Multipolar disorder. America’s plan to pivot to Asia, ‘and focus moreon its rivalry ‘witha rising China, hasbeen Vladimir Putin's fate will depend more on American voters than Russian ones derailed by warin Ukraine and now Gaza, Russia, t00, is distracted and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are ‘thawing and local cold wars are heating up around the ‘world. Instability in the Sahel is rising. The world is preparing for more conflict now that America's “unipolar ‘moment has ended. ‘6. Asecond cold war. AAs China's growth has slowed, tensions rise over Taiwan, and ‘America continues to limit Chinese access to advanced technologies, the “new cold war" rhetoric has hardened. But Western companies trying to reduce their supply chains’ dependency on China will ind itmuch easier said than done. Meanwhile both camps will ‘woo the “middle powers” of the global south, not least for theirgreen resources. 7.New energy geography. ‘The clean-energy transition is ‘minting new green super- powers and redrawing the ‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 cenergy-resources map. Lithium, copper and nickel ‘matter much more, while oil and gas, and the regions that dominate their supply, matter less. Competition for green resources is reshaping geopolitics and trade, and ‘reatingsomeunexpected ‘winners and losers. ‘Meanwhile, a"greenlash” is ‘under way among voters who regard climate-friendly policies as an elite conspiracy Against ordinary people, 8. Economic uncertainty. ‘Western economies did better than expected in 2023 but are not out of the woods yet, and interest rates staying “higher, forlonger” willbe painful for companies and consumers alike, even if recessions are avoided. (Keepan eye onthe banks, and their exposure to ‘commercial property, where things could go bad) China may fall into deflation. 9.atgets real, Businesses are adopting it, regulators are regulating it and techies continue toimprove it. Debate will intensify overthe best regulatory approach—and whether arguments over, “existential risk" area decoy that benefits incumbents, ‘Unexpected uses and abuses will keep popping up. Worries abound about ars effect on jobs and potential forelection meddling. Its biggest actual impact? Faster coding. 10. Uniting the world? Pethapsideological differences will be put asideas the world enjoys the Pa Olympics, astronauts (maybe) Joopingaround the Moon, and the men's T2o cricket World Cup. But itis just as likely that those hoping forsome global unity will be stumped. Read on for more detail on all these trends—and check out “Trendlines’, adata-heavy selection of noteworthy metrics to keepan eye onin 2024, from supethero movies tospace-launch costs. We hope you will find The World Ahead 2024 helpful guideto ‘navigating the coming year. @ Editor, The World Ahead 2024‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 LEADERS Democracy in danger 2024 will bea stressful year for anyone who cares about liberal democracy, predicts Zanny Minton Beddoes ‘ORE THAN half the people on the planet live in countries that will hold nationwide elections in 2024, the first time this milestone has been reached. Based on recent patterns of voter turnout, close to 2bn, peoplein more than 70 countries will head tothe polls. Ballots will be cast from Britain to Bangladesh, from India to Indonesia, Yet what sounds like itshould bea triumphantyear for democracy will bethe opposite. Many elections will entrench liberal rulers, thers will reward the corruptand incompetent. By far the most important contest, America’s presidential lection, will be so poisonous and polarising that it will cast pall over global politics. Against a backdrop. ‘of conti, from Ukraine tothe Middle East, America’s future dircction—and with it the world order Ameri- can leadership has hitherto underwritten—will be on the line. twill bea nerve-racking and dangerous year. Someelections will beobvious shams. In Belarus or Rwanda, forinstance, the only question is how close to 100% the incumbent's vote-share willbe, Having ille- gally changed the constitution to remove term limits in 2020, Vladimir Putin will doubtless win third con- secutive term (and fifth overall) as Russia's president. ‘Most ballots cast willbe in Asia, Its biggest demo- cracies—Bangladesh, India and Indonesia—will all go, to the polls. Unfortunately, the danger is of growing il liberalism. Under Narendra Modi, Indiais enjoying te- markable economic and geopolitical success, even as the prime minister condones antieMuslim chauvin- ism and a dismantling of institutional safeguards. I donesia's president, Joko Widodo, seems focused on entrenching political dynasty. Bangladesh has alrea- dy taken an authoritarian turn, with opposition lead- ersjailed and nodissent brooked America’s poisonous and polarising election wi cast a pall over global politics Arica will be the continent with the most elec= tions, but its voters are increasingly disillusioned with how democracy works, Coups are becoming more common: nine regimes have seized power by force since 2020, Polis suggest that growing numbers of At= ricans might be willing to goalong witha military gov~ cemment. South Africa's election will bea reminder of serial disappointment, Three decades after the aNc swept to power in the frst post-apartheid election, it vill limp to power again ina country ground down by corruption, crime and unemployment. ‘The news is notall bad. Mexico will electits first fe- ‘male president: both leading contenders are women, and less populist than the incumbent. British voters ‘ill (at last) havea choice between twocompetentcan- didates. Aftersg years of Tory rulea Labour win is like- 1y, but few outside Britain will notice much change. Someelections will havea disproportionate impact beyond their country’s borders. Whether Taiwan's 8m voters plump for the incumbent Democratic Progres- sive Party or the Kuomintang (Katt), the more China- friendly opposition, will affect relations across the ‘Taiwan Straitand, as result, thelevel of us-China ten- sions. In the short term xa victory mightreduce the ‘odds of conflict. But in the medium term Taiwanese complacency might later increase the risk of Chinese adventurism and, potentially, a great-power clash, Nothing, however, will compare to America’s elec- tion, either for grim spectacle or potential conse- ‘quences. Its hard to believe the most likely outcome isa rematch between two old men, both of whom the majority of woters wish were not candidates. Donald Trump's very candidacy undermines Amer ican democracy. That the Republican Party would nominate a man who tried to overturn the results of, the previous presidential election dims America as a democratic beacon, A second Trump term would transform America into. loose cannon with isolation- ist tendencies ata time of grave geopolitical perl. His fondness for strongmen, particularly Mr Putin, sug- gests that his boast to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict ing hours would beat Ukraine's expense. ‘Mr‘Trump may not become the nominee, and if he ddoes, he may well ose. But the odds ofa second Trump term are alarmingly high. The consequences could be catastrophic—for democracy and for the world. @ ZANNY MINTON BEDDOES Editor-in-chief, The Economist8 Leavers Multipolar disorder ‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 {In 2024 the world must try to break a vicious cyte of insecurity, argues Patrick Foulls s 2023 DREW to a close, wars Were raging in Africa, Israel and Gaza, and Ukraine, These crises are ex plosive in their own right. Combine them with a pres- dential race in America and 2024 promises to be a make-or-break year forthe post-1945 world order. ‘The 20208 were destined to be dangerous. The ‘West's share of world cnr has fallen towards 50% for the firsttime since the ith century. Countries such as India and Turkey believe the global institutions creat- ed after 1945 do not reflect their concerns. China and Russia want to go further and subvert this system. ‘Though America’s economy is still pre-eminent, its unipolar momen has ended. allies in Europe and Ja- pan are in relative economic decline. There is tepid support among the middle class for America's global role, and an isolationist tlt inthe Republican Party. At the start of 2023 America was busy adapting to this reality, implementing the Biden administration's foreign policy. The idea was to be a more selective, even selfish, superpower. Prioritisation had meant quitting Afghanistan and shifting resources to Asia to counter China. Alliances were rejuvenated in the Pa- Cificand in Europe, where Nato Was expanded and Uke raine Kept afloat. Energy and tech embargoes were used to weaken adversaries, at little cost to the West. Domestic industrial subsidies, though inefficient, ‘were potent: in mid-2023 American factory construc- tion hit its highest rate since the 1950s. By some yardsticks—oil and grain prices, Western ‘combat casualties—geopolitical risk is tolerable. Yet the new dynamic is one of instability. In the 1990s ‘many countries aspired to a self-reinforcing cycle of freedom, market economics and rules-based glabali- sation. Now there is an unpredictable cycle of popu- lism, interventionist economics and transactional slobalisation. Asa result, three threats loom in 2024. First, there is a growing zone of impunity where neither global powers nor global institutions tread. You can Walk 6,o00km from the Red Sea to the Atlantic, through six African countries that have faced coups in the past 36 months, Azerbaijan has just fought a war against Armenia involving ethnic cleansing, without much blowback, Iran's proxies thrive in failing states, ‘The final threat is the fragility of the Western coalition across the Middle East. In 2024 this zone of impunity could expand further across Africa and Russia's flanks. Second, a trio of trouble is emerging featuring Chi: na, Iran and Russia. They have much less in common than Western allies do, and China is far larger and more integrated into the world economy than the others, But their interests intersect: all want to under= ‘mine American legitimacy and to evade actual or po- tential sanctions. China buys Russian and Iranian oil None has condemned Hamas or the invasion of Uk raine. Their collaboration is likely to expand into tech. China is pioneering ways to bypass Western finance: half ofits trade is now in yuan. Iran exports drones to Russia; China and Russia collaborate on nuclear ‘warning systems and patrols in the Pacific. n 2024 the world will learn how far this nascent club might go. ‘The final threat is the fragility of the Western co alition. The response to Ukraine's invasion wasexhila- rating: America and Europe united, public opinion was supportive and the principles of the 1945 order were defended, even if non-Western countries were not fully onboard. Now, with a military stalemate, cracks are showing. In America, Republicans are divid- ed over funding for Ukraine. Israet’s invasion of Gazais even more divisive: it has split the Ev and America, Which has vetoed a UN ceasefire resolution, fuelling, claims of double standards and Western illegitimacy. Other crises could expose more splits: would Europe join America in fightingto defend Taiwan? How these threats play out in 2024 partly depends ‘on the performance of the West's autocratic competi- tors, ust as the very different regimes of China, tran and Russia share someinterests, they have some simi- lar vulnerabilities, all face economic difficulties and rely on intensifying repression, Vladimir Putin faced a ‘mutiny in 2023; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 84 and has. no clear successor, XiJinping relies on purges. All this could sap their vitality and their claim to have a rival ‘model that others should emulate. But America's election is key. An isolationist pres- ident would not drop treaties overnight but will be tested quickly: think of China “inspecting” Taiwanese ships or Russia “reinterpreting” borders. If America’s ‘commitment falters, Europe will soldieron in Ukraine but will struggle to provide funding or military mus- cle. Asian allies will placate China and bolster their de- fences. Middle powers such as South Korea and Saudi ‘Arabia may seek nuclear weapons. If America elects an internationalist at the end of 2024, much of the world will breathe a sigh of relief. But America faces a long slog to stabilise and then re- new a system of international trade and security. The to-do list includes European enlargement; deepening, co-operation with India; and a two-state solution be- tween Israel and the Palestinians. Perhaps one day his- torians will alk of the post-2025 order. @ PATRICK FOULIS Foreign editor, The Economist‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 LEADERS 9 Don’t give up on peace in the Middle East But the process of getting there will be alarmingly fragile, says Edward Carr 11,202 was th yea wen the Fatesinian confi shook the Middle East, 024 will be the year when it Starts to become clear whether the Middle East can shake the Palestinian conflict. Terrible as itis to write after so much death, the region has not had a better chance of peace in two decades. Unfortunately, nel- ther has the Palestinian conflict had a greater chance of spiralling out of control. Which will tbe? Hamas's murder of 1,400 Israelis will bring change in 2024 because it destroyed the strategic concept that had allowed Israel and much of the Arab world to ig- nore the Palestinians’ plight. No longer can anyone pretend that a mix of financial incentives and Israeli air strikes can control Hamas. I israel is to honour its ounding promise to be a homeland where Jews are safe, needs a new approach. ‘The attack will also produce new leaders on both sides. Israe/’s military and intelligence chiefs will resign when the war is aver. And its prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, will be forced from office. Not only did this catastrophe take place when he was in charge, but his political brand as Israel's staunch de- fender lies in ruins. Meanwhile, Hamas's leaders are likely to be killed by Israeli forces, and their counter parts in the Palestinian Authority (a) in the West Bank could end up being driven from power. New leaders bring change, too. ‘A number of things could conspire to make this a ‘change for the worse. One isthe war itself. Israeli forc~ es are killing thousands upon thousands of Palestin- jans, including many women and children. Hamas cannot defeat Israc, but it does not need to, Amid the ‘understandable fury this is causing in the Arab world and beyond, just surviving would mean that Hamas ‘emerges stronger in the eyes of Palestinians. If Israel loses international support, it may be forced to stop fighting sooner than its ready. If Palestinians are rad- icalised, Hamas could rise from the ashes to hecomea symbol of resistance. Another danger is that the violence spreads. Hiz- bullah, an franian-backed militia, could open asecond front in the north, across the border with Lebanon. ‘More likely is popular unrest in the West Bank, where Hamas's attack destroyed the notion that the Palestinians’ plight could be ignored Hamas has recently been working to increase its influ- ence, and where young Palestinians have lost faith in the a and its do-nothing, election-avoiding presi dent, Mahmoud Abbas If Hamas retains control of Gaza, and the West Bank isin flames, Israel will not besafe,lewillstrike Gaza re- peatedly, whenever Hamas seems a threat, lestanother attack take place. No Palestinian leader will be in a po- sition to talk to it, even if they wished to. The Arab World, whose backing is vital for peace, will want to keep its distance. The Holy Land will be ina state of, permanent semi-war However, thatdoes not have tobe the outcome. The ‘operation to destroy Hamas and its tunnels could last several months. Imagine that atthe end of it, Istael is satisfied that Hamas's rule aver Gaza has been broken. Imagine that ordinary Palestinians will contemplate. the idea of living beside Israel in peace. And imagine that even asthe presidential campaign in America en- ters its final months, the Biden administration stil has the driveand focus to undertake active diplomacy. Thereisaslender chance ofall these things fallinginto place, but if they do, a delicate transition may begin It starts in the Palestinian territories, with leaders ‘who can combine legitimacy at the ballot box with an acceptance of Israels right to exist. Only that combina- tion will produce a partner with whom Israel can cau- tiously begin to build trust, At the moment, while Pal- estinians are seething with anger at Israels assault in Gaza, no such leader is available, But although Mr Abbas has engineered itso that he has no rivals today, successors may appear once he has gone ‘New leaders in Israel will havealmostas dauntinga task. Notonly must they win over traumatised Israelis to the idea of making peace, but they must also con- front the settler movement which was never so power- fal as under Mr Netanyahu's last government. For as Tong as settlers are killing Palestinians in the West Bank, peace will remain out of reach, Ie-will be just as hard to create the security needed in Israel and the Palestinian territories to allow peace to take toot. In the past those who wished to destroy. peace were able to use violence to discredit moderate voices within their respective camps. ‘Nowhereis this problem harder than in Gaza. AnIs- raeli occupation would only radicalise the Palestin- ans there. Some imagine an Arab peacekeeping force, pethaps of armed police rather than troops. The Arab countries that now have closer relations with Israel than they did in the past, through the Abraham ac- cords, may help. But they will ake a lot of persuading. The Middle East i the graveyard of plans for peace. It is a harsh and violent part of the world. But in 2024 you should cling to one hope. After two decades of stagnation ended on October 7th with terrible vio- lence, the pursuit of peace is the only fresh idea left. @ EDWARD CARR, Deputy editor, The Economist10 LEADERS: Time for Europe to step up ‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 As. long war looms, Amerlean support for Ukraine can no longer be depended upon, argues Christopher Lockwood T SEEMS CLEAR that, barting a last-minute miracle, Ukraine's counter-offensive, once the source of so ‘much optimism not just in Kyiv but across the West, failed in 2023—and badly so. After five months of bloo- dyand expensive effort, the results by early Novernber ‘were minimal. No major town had been taken, and only around 400 square km (154 square miles) ofterr- tory had been liberated, less than 0.1% of Ukraine's total land mass, Russia still occupies about 18% of Ukraine, around half of which it took in 2014, when it annexed Crimea and grabbed the eastern Donbas; the rest is what is left of the territory it seized after the invasion of February 2022. All this portends a long and grinding war of attri tion, and Ukraine's backers must be ready fort, Russia, certainly is, Vladimir Putin's strategy rests on waiting, for the West to grow tired of what increasingly looks like an open-ended commitment. A long wat plays to hs strengths. A brutal dictator who has progeessively silenced dissent, he does not worry much about public opinion. Russians anyway show little sign of turning. against the war, despite heavy casualties, in part be- ‘cause a high ol price has blunted the effects of West- fem sanctions. Russia will gorily soldier on. But in Europe, and above all in America, the danger looms that voters and policymakers will tire of the burden. ‘Too much, it now appears, was promised of the counter-offensive, and there has been too litle prep- aration for a long war. That will have to change. Ne- ther Ukraine nor Russia has any interest ina peace that leaves the situation on the ground looking anything. like it does now, For Ukraine, allowing Russia to hold onto the territory thas taken is unacceptable, notleast because of the economic impact of losing most of its southern coast. But for Russia the invasion still looks like a failure, because it does not fully control any of the four provinces itannexed in September 2022.50 do nnotexpect either side to try tosettlein 2024. ‘This new reality requizes new policies, above all rom Europe’ leaders, who have to understand that the task of supporting Ukraine is quickly passing to them. Although America started out as the main arms supplier to Ukraine, Europe increased its support in Europe can also help by speeding up Ukraine's integration the EU 2023, and by July 3thad narrowly overtaken America as Ukraine’ largest cumulative supplier of military aid. However, ithas donethisby runningdown its own reserves of tanks, ammunition and missiles. Without further big investments in defence procurement, Europe will not be able to maintain this pace. And al- ‘though contractors can ramp up production at exist- ing facilities, that will not be enough. To get them to, invest in new facilites, they will need big, multi-year ‘commitments from governments. ‘The story is better on non-military commitments, and in particular funding to help Ukraine cover 1 gaping budget deficits created by increased military spending and war-ravaged tax revenues, In June, the FU promised an extra €sobn ($53bn) to Ukraine in fi- nancial aid for 2024-27. That pushes Europe far above America in total assistance pledged. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, America’s com~ mitments by the end of July amounted to S6gbn, against $1ssbn for the Europeans (the ev plus Britain, Norway and Switzerland). But Ukraine's budget defi- cit, of roughly 20% of cbr, means that it needs some- thing like $42bn every year to stay afloat. Then there is, reconstruction on top ofthat. Accordingly, €s0bn over four years is not enough. European governments can easily afford to do better. But will they want to? “The factis that America can no longer be depended upon to lead this fight. The new speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, began his term by blocking President joe Biden's attempt to get author sation for a fresh package of $éibn in military support for Ukraine (though Mr Johnson has also said that he does not want to see Mr Putin prevail). Donald ‘Trump 4s an even bigger mystery, having often contradicted himself over Ukraine, as with so much else. Mr Biden, who has done an excellent job of backing Ukraine so far, may find the politics of fighting the Republicans lover it too difficult asthe election in November nears. Al G7 countries agreed to produce bilateral security guarantees for Ukraine, but none has yet done so. ‘So Europe will, ike it oF not, have to step up and. take on more responsibility for supporting Ukraine. ‘That means providing more cash as direct financial as- sistance, but also investing much more heavily in mil- itary kit so that Europe can arm Ukraine without leay~ ing itself defenceless. It can also help by speeding up Ukraine’ integration with the ev itself. Itwas formally. accepted asacandidate in June 2022, but formal acces sion talks have still not started. Attheirsummitin De- ember 2023, the EU's leaders should give the green light to the start of detailed negotiations, while also. ‘making it clear that these must not be allowed to drag, on for Years. Bound into the huge European economy, Ukraine has a far better chance of holding the line against Russia—and outlasting Mr Putin, @ cunisroper ockwoop Europe editor, ‘The Economist‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 LEADERS 7 Unprecedented, uncharted, not unthinkable America will need a new vocabulary to discuss the forthcoming presidential election, says john Prideaux JARRING UNFORESEEN illness or death, the 2024 presidential election will bea rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This will be confirmed by the party primaries, which in 2024 will be completed much earlier than usual. Normally the incumbent president is chosen as his party's nominee without much of a fight. On the Democratic side that will hap- Pen again. But the Republican side, where one candi- date isso far ahead already that he has been able to skip the early debates, will be much weirder. Ina typical primary cycle, Americans have to wait until the end of March, or beyond, to know who the challenger is likely to be. This time the Republican primary could in effect be finished by the end of Febru- ary. Americans would then be subjected toa full eight months of a general election campaign between two ‘unpopular candidates—while America’s allies around the globe hold their breath If the primaries are less relevant than usual, the at- tention of politically engaged Americans (particularly those who do not wish to see a second Trump presi- dency), will sift from Trump the candidate to Trump. the defendant. The former president's federal tril for attempting to overturn the 2020 election starts on ‘March 4th, the day before "Super Tuesday", when 13, states will ote in the Republican primary. His campaign will take advantage of this timing, portraying the cases against Mr Trump as a left-wing, plot to prevent him from winning a second term and inviting his backers to vote for him (and donate to his, legal fund) as an actof defiance. One of Mr‘Trump'sfa- vourite political techniques is to turn whatever he stands accused of back against his accusers. Thus, while he is actually on trial ina federal court for under- mining American democracy, he will claim that the real threat to democratic freedom is the federal court. The coronations of the candidates will ake placein -Miwaulkee, where the Republicans will hold their con~ vention in July, and Chicago, where Democrats will gather in August to enthuse about four more years of MrBiden atthe end of which their candidate would be 85 years old). The choice of locations is another re- minder of the outsized importance of the Midwest in Itis hard to overstate how important the outcome will be, for America and the world an election year, and the extent to which the contest to choose the president is not rally a national election, If the vote is close, as most presidential elections are nov, then the result will come down to what hap- pensin sixstates: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. This means states witha combined population of som people, a bit more than Spain but fewer than Italy, will choose the next presi dent. A bigger swing in either direction could bring a ew more states into play: Minnesota, New Hamp- shire, North Carolina, perhaps even Florida, “The federal eases against Mr Trump ate unlikely to be litigated by November sth, the day of the election, because Mr Trump's legal strategy will be to delay and then to appeal. As a result, for the frst time, America will have a presidential candidate on the ballot who. stands accused of federal and state crimes, Words like “uncharted” and “unprecedented” were worn out by the end of Mr Trump's first term. America will need new ones for thiselection It is hard to overstate how important the outcome willbe for America and the restof the world. America’s next president will face some predictable problems. ‘The trust funds that pay for Social Security and Medi~ care (health care for pensioners) are running out of, ‘money. Nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea will be in the in-tray again. And there is the looming, question of Taiwan. China-watchers in the West be- lieve there is a narrow window, which overlaps with the next presidency, during which the People's Libera- tion Army would have the advantage in a conflict over, the island. The president chosen in 2024 will thus be in charge in the moment of maximum danger. ‘Most crises, though, are of the unexpected sort. In 2016 Mr Trump campaigned on ending American en= tanglements in the Middle East. Less than a year later, he gave the order to launch 9 Tomahawk cr siles at targets in Syrian territory. The last year of his presidency was consumed by mishandling the spread ‘ofa new virus. MrBiden's presidency has been steadier and more successful, but the subjects that have de- manded most of his attention—the bungled retreat from Afghanistan, Ukraine's invasion of Russia and a war between Israel and Hamas—were unforeseen, second Trump win, though, would be predictably. awful, Plans willbelaid over the nexts2 monthsto staff his administration with true believers. The full effect is hard to imagine. What would it mean for foreign policy, or action on climate change? Would other countries elect nationalist populists in imitation again, as Brazil did in 2038? For America, the questions are even bigger. What ‘would itmean forthe country’s democracy tore-electa ‘man who governed as Mr Trump did, who was im= peached twice by the House of Representatives—and Who tried tooverturn the result ofthe lastelection? @ JOHN PRIDEAUX United States editor, The Economist2 LEADERS Soft landing? Don’t count on it THE WORLD AHEAD 2028 Inflation has fallen, bu the world economy will remain vulnerable in 2024, predicts Henry Curr Frossoustime the word economy nas seemed tode fy gravity, Despite the fastest tightening of mone- tary policy since the 1980s, America’s economic growth probably accelerated in 2023. Europe has most- ly weaned itself off Russian gas without economic ca- tastrophe, Global inflation has fallen without big surg- es in unemployment, in part because labour markets have so far cooled mainly by shedding job vacancies not jobs themselves. As the year ends, optimists who predicted a“softlanding” are taking victory laps. Yet the world economy will remain fragile in 2024. ‘Though inflation will be lower, it will remain too high. Economic policy still faces an excruciating balancing, act. And even if America continues to dodge a reces- sion, the rest ofthe world looks vulnerable. Inflation’s recent fall has been a telief to central bankers. But in big, rich economies it is unlikely to ‘continue declining al the way to their 2% targets un- less a recession strikes, For one thing, labour markets still look too hot and nominal wage growth too high. For another, economies will have to contend with the effects of more expensive oil. ust when it seemedas if ‘the supply shocks ofthe pandemic era and Russia's in- vasion of Ukraine had dissipated, with supply chains unclogged and economies rebalanced, a barrel of oil hhas risen in price by about a third since the summer, thanks to production cuts in Saudi Arabia and else- ‘where. price fall was halted by Hamas's attack on Is- rael. The resulting pricier petrol could raise fears of a “second wave" of inflation. ‘The major central banks will probably not raise in- terest rates further, instead treating any oil-driven in- flation rebound as temporary. But, fearful of prema- ture declarations of victory they will not be keen to cut rates, either. On recent evidence America’s economy can withstand tight money, even if big companies refi nancing debts and households who have run down their pandemic-era savings ate beginning to feel ‘squeezed. But high interest rates may be tipping theal- ready.wobbly euro-zone economy into recession, and fear of inflation could stop its policymakers from cut- tng ates in response. Even the robustness of America's economy comes Major central banks will probably not raise interest rates further witha big asterisk: it is being supported by extraordi- nary levels of government borrowing. At the time of writing the federal governments deficit is running at an annual rate of over 7% of GDP. Debate rages about ‘Whether interest rates have entered a *higher-for-lon- ger” regime. The answer depends on whether the bor- rowingbinge continues. It probably wills Congress will not confront itin a presidential-election year. And the first order of business for the next occupant of the White House will be renewing Donald Trump's 2018 {ax cuts, many of which expire in 2025 and which even Democrats will be reluctant tolet lapse in full Economies without freely borrowing governments look more vulnerable. As well asthe likely recession in Europe, the world economy is suffering from China's growth slowdown, Whether China tebounds and es- capes “Japanification” will depend on the degree to which the government continues to open the stimulus taps. But the recent deterioration of China's economic policymaking—in everything from ending zero-covid to the technology crackdown—suggests it would be unwise to expecta well-calibrated stimulus. And Chi- na faces fiscal constraints owing to the indebtedness ofits local governments. All the while, the gradual worsening of geopolitical tensions between America and China, and the global tide of protectionism, are throwing sand in the gears of trade. The number of protectionist measures in place is up from about 9,000 a decade ago to around 35,000 today, according to Global Trade Alert, acharity Although some economies in Asia benefit from the re- location of supply chains outside China, the duplica- tion of investment and loss ofthe gains from speciali sation are weighing on the global economy's potential growth, Even winners, such as fast-growing India, show a worrying drifttowards homeland economics. Poor countries that are not in a position to benefit from the redistribution of investment are suffering, from high indebtedness, low growth and a strong dol- lar. In 2024 the 1nF will continue to struggle to work out how to provide debt relief to countries that are heavily indebt to China and other lenders who do not subscribe to traditional principles for debt restructur- ing. And if America’s deficits continue to propel its economy while global growth disappoints, expect the dollar to rise still further, exacerbating their woes. ‘The possibility of Mr Trump's re-election to the White House brings the potential forall of these trends tobe magnified, A second Trump term would probably ‘mean even deeper tax cuts—and hence bigger defi- cits—and a further escalation of the trade Wat. As in 2016, stockmarkets might sally if Mr Trump wins in November, but it would be no good-news story. By the tend of 2024 it might feel less as though the global economy has landed softly, and more like the start of. another wild ride, @ HENRY CURR Economies editor, The Economist#ModernMBA MAKEYOUR / MOONSHOT . LESS OFALONGSHOT .% v ye ae 5 LS , : ad the Business School of the Future en. Mobile first. Innovative tuition model ie next generation of business leaders. hat it takes? Do you have what it take: Apply now at quantic.edu QUANTIC14 LEADER: The adoption decision THE WORLD AHEAD 2028 Generative 1 holds much promise for businesses. Just don't expect adoption overnight, says Rachana Shanbhogue HEN CHATGPT Was first unched at the end of 2022 Itquickly became a sensation. Within two ‘months 100m users were posing all sorts of entertain- ing queries ("Write me a rap song using references to ‘SpongeBob SquarePants’). The number of people Goo- sling artificial intelligence” surged, and the mania set, offinvestors’ enthusiasm for all manner ofa projects. Yet the real promise, these investors and entrepre- neurs are betting, lies with its use in business. Here, to9, itcould be more rapidly adopted than past innova- tions, But that does not mean itwill happen overnight. ‘The potential is exciting, According to McKinsey, a consultancy, three-quarters of the business uses of generative At will fll into four areas: customer opera- tions, marketing and sales, software engineering, and research and development. Navigating a complex tax code or summarising a legal document could become a breeze. Type in the right prompt and a first draft of marketing copy could magically appear. Already many coders rely on Copilot, acoding ool from Microsoft, to help them write software. Studies show that profes- sional workers with below-average performance tend {to experience the most benefit from using generative Al, promising aig increase in output for firms. Helpfully, oo, many generative at tools will be eas- ier to access than previous technologies. This is not like the advent of personal computers or smart- phones, where employers needed to buy lots of hard- ware, of even e-commerce, where retailers needed to set up physical infrastructure before they could open an online storefront. Many businesses may find that they can work with at specialists to design bespoke tools, And firms such as Microsoft and Google are em- bedding generative at into their office software, mean- {ng that anyone opening up a document or a spread- sheet will soon be able to make se of the tools ‘Many of the largest companies are already experi- menting. Morgan Stanley, a bank, Is using at to build a tool to help wealth managers. El Lilly, a pharmaceuti- cal firm, has struck a deal with a startup that runs “au- tonomous labs” to identify promising molecules, ‘which the drugmaker will then develop, test and com: mercialise. Around 5% of vacancies posted by Ameri- ‘Two other camps are emerging: the wary and the reluctant ca’s big banks between 2020 and June 2023 cited at in the job description, and around 8% of patents regis- tered by big tech firms in 2020-22 were al-elated. ‘Yetnotall businesses will be enthusiasticadopters Outside the tech world, only a third of global managers tell McKinsey they are regularly usinggenerative al for, work;abouthalf have tried the technology but havede- cided notto use it, and abouta fifth have had no expo- sure to it all. At adopters, in short, are outnumbered ‘wo-to-one by the wary and the reluctant, Start with the wary. Some businesses are taking a cautious approach, since much about the technology still needs ironing out. Chatbots are prone to “halluci nations’, or making up things that sound dangerously. plausible. And writers, artists, photographers and Publishers are challenging At models'use oftheir data incourt, Some businesses are wary of being exposed 10 legal risk by making use of the models, or the reputa- tional risk of taking hallucinations seriously. JPMor- gan Chase, a bank, has banned the use of Chatcrr, though itis experimenting with at in other areas. ‘Other businesses are reluctant to dip their toe in the water at all. Differences in behaviour between firms at the productivity frontier and those that are less productive are not unusual. Lags in technology adoption can be long, Even though the internet began to be used by companies in the early 1990s, for in- stance, it was not until the late 2000s that even two- thirds of businesses in America had a website. Many firms have outdated systems—think of the Japanese bank that still uses conol—which ean make adopting cutting-edge technology a tall order. Managers in the public sector, or in heavily regulated industries such as utilities, may feel little impulse to innovate, Those sectors make up a sizeable chunk of economies: in America they collectively account fora quarter of cor. Reluctance can also stem from workers. Although the technology promises to do away with drudgery, some people worry that it may ultimately replace them, A survey by aco, a consultancy, finds that front= Tine Workers are more likely to be concerned, and less likely to be optimistic, about generative at than man= agers or leaders are, In some cases, unions may act to slow the adoption of the technology; some may go as far as the writers’ guild in Hollywood, which was on strike for much of 2023, in part because of concerns about a's impact on jobs. How then should the at-curious boss think about the technology? Ithelps to makeacleat-headed assess- ‘ment of the gains to be had, and the costs of using a still new and risky technology, before deciding wheth- erto be an enthusiasticadopter, ora wary or reluctant ‘one. Most important of all, your workers need to be on board. So pay attention to their fears—and convince them of the joys of experimentation. @ [RACHANA SHANBHOGUE Business affairs editor, The Economist‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 Transfer window LEADERS 15 ‘The green transition will transform the global economic order, predicts Matthieu Favas /HE TRANSITION to a carbon-neutral world should make all countries better off, at least in theory. ‘Many will rely less on fuel imports, yielding big sav- ings and insulating their economies from swings in hydrocarbon prices. Those that export the metals needed for new Teslas, turbines and terawatt-hours of arid capacity will earn juicy rents. Even former petro- states may thrive if they can use revamped refineries and pipelines, as wellas wind and sun, to make hydro- gen, And everyone would welcomea planet that stops getting hotter and more dangerous every year. In practice, the transition to net zero willbe turbu- lent. Changing energy-consumption patterns and the reshuffling of trade flows will both crown new win ners and create new losers. In 2024 this divergence, hitherto masked by the effects of covid-19, a flagging slobal economy and China's deceleration, will start 10 become more visible—but not always in the ways you might expect. It is not simply the case that providers of {ossil-fuel resources will lose and providers of green, resources will win. There will be winners and losersin both camps, During the tansition the world will continue to guzzle hydrocarbons. The International Energy Agen- y predicts that oil demand will peak before 2030, but green backlashes seen in 2023 suggest it may not ebb So soon. Meanwhile investor pressure and doubts over long-term demand mean that only state-owned firms inthe Gulf and Latin America are spending big on new supply. This will concentrate still-meaty oil rents in the hands of fewer exporters. Eventually the Organisa- tion of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel whose members disagree on how best to handle the transition, could implode, allowing low-cost pe- ‘tostates to grab even more marketshare. Demand for gas will persist longer still, allowing the trio that exports most of it in liquid form—Ameri- a, Australia and Qatar—to cash in. Even coal will re- tain its lure into the 2040s. As long as energy-hungry Asia devours it, Austvalia and indonesia, best placed to serve the region, won't mind the dirty dollars. Butas oil riches continue to flow, many petrostates ‘ill ail to future-proof their economies, and will su- Only the savviest few will grow rich flogging green resources fer eventually. Energy importers in Aftica, Europe and Asia will have to pay top dollar for thelr hydrocarbons. After renewed volatility amid geopolitical worries in late 2023, prices for these are likely to swing again in 2024. A rebounding global economy will demand ‘more oil just as Asia and Europe compete for gas. Bar- ring a global crash, importing nations from Germany. toJapan may face high prices for adecade or more. ‘The effects of electrification will also be nuanced, The nush tohit decarbonisation targets will create vast demand for the metals—cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel—that are vital ingredients in green power sta- tions, grids and electric cars. In 2024 this prospect may. ‘trump near-term worries about the economy, causing, ‘metals prices to go up again. Yet with clean technol- ‘gies still in flux, demand adapting to rising prices and new supply arriving in big lumps, the market for ‘many of these minerals may go through rapid boom~ and-bust cycles, wrongfooting exporters, Many such Countries, new to mining, lack the well-run sovereign funds, hedging mechanisms and fiscal prudence needed to manage volatility. The difficulty and cost of. turning mines on and off, and the geographic disper- sion of deposits, make it unlikely that an oPEC of met- als will emerge. That suggests that only the savviest few will grow rich flogging green resources. nd the boom will not last for ever: once there are enough windmills turning and electric cars on the road, appetite for green metals will stabilise ata lower level. More durable rents will flow to countries that can exploit strong sun, winds and rivers to generate plentiful green electricity they don't need. In some cases the unequal endowment of resources will exac- erbate regional differences: expect the windy North Sea and the sunny Mediterranean to do well, while Cloudy continental Europe struggles. Luckiest will be countries that can combine several types of resources. toguaranteea continuous supply of renewable energy. ‘Those with small populations may use any surplus they produce to lure energy-hungry industries, such as steelmaking or data storage, to their shores. Others will seek to export the excess, either in the form of electrons ortiquid fuels. ‘The energy superpowers of the transition will be those that ignore critics and do everything: flog fossil fuels, dig out metals and turbocharge renewables. No country doesall that yet. The Gulf states alka lotabout solarand hydrogen but have yet to make eitherhappen atscale. Chile mines vast amounts of copper and i lum but does not exploit its 6,500km of coastline, southern storms and sunny deserts to generate elec- tricity in volume, America has shale oil and gas and ever more renewables, but faces opposition when it ‘comes to mining for green metals in its backyard. The transition’s biggest prizes are still to play for. @ MATTHIEU FAVAS Commodities editor, The Economist,16 LEADERS The scourge of “stealthflation” THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 Companies have found sneaky ways to raise prices, says Leo Mlranl. Where will tend? HERES, AS economists like tosay, no such thingas a free lunch. Buy yourlunch in a branch of McDon- ale’, however, and you may find thereis no such thing, as free relish, either. Outlets in some countries now. ‘charge for ketchup and other condiments. Yet McDon- ald’s isnotalone in hitting customers with unexpected charges. Amid a surge of inflation, firms have found several stealthy ways to raise prices. Could 2024 mark aturning-point inthis invidious trend? classic exampleis the techniqueof ‘unbundling’, a ruse pioneered by low-cost airlines. Long ago they ‘began charging extra fees for things that used to be in- cluded, such as in-flight food and checked luggage. Then came charges for seat selection, or for any cabin bag larger than a sock stuffed with spare underwear. Lately things have got really out of hand. Some alt- lines now apply a "technology development charge’ for the privilege of booking online which, oddly, de- pends on distance travelled—those web servers have to work much harder, you see, to deliver long-haul tickets. Others charge for printed boarding passes, air- port check-ins, or in-flight blankets. It isonly a matter Of time before airlines start selling tickets for the shut- te bus to the plane, levying a fee per item of clothing, worn, or charging to use the loo. (Ryanair's boss, ‘Michael O'Leary, once actually suggested that lastone) ‘The practice has spread. Hotels and resorts often chargea check-in fee’ takeaway jointsa “packing fe’, and ride-hailing apps a “safety fee’, Airbnb, a short= term rental platform, has been criticised foradding ex- cessive service fees and cleaning fees, ‘But extra fees are not limited to services: they are also being applied to physical products. sstw Intro- ‘duced a monthly fee of :8 to activate seat warmers on some of its cars, with “unlimited” access for a one-off fee of $435. Mercedes-Benz charges $60 a month, or ‘$600 a year, for the option to boost the acceleration of Some of its electric vehicles. imagine if this catches ‘on, Want to use your smartphone camera's zoom? Pay. up. Need to use your oven at its maximum tempera ture? Sorry, thats for premium subscribers only. ‘Asecond way businesses are sneakily boosting rev- enue is “surge” pricing. Airlines and hotels have long, aw charged $18 a month to activate seat warmers on some of its cars varied their prices with seasonal demand. But the abil- ity to track demand in real time means prices can be adjusted from minute to minute: Uber and other ride- sharing apps charge more when demand is high. Surge pricing is now infecting other industries. tn Septembera British pub chain announced that pints of beer would cost more in the evenings and on week- ends, or during bigsporting events. Pricesof tickets for concerts, sporting events and theme parks are also constantly tweaked. In theory, this isa triumph of the invisible hand of the market: if you want to pay less, buy when demand is low. But disgruntled consumers complain that the line between charging what the ‘market can bear and profiteeringiis thin one, ‘Then there is the seemingly unstoppable epidemic of tipping. Foreigners visiting America have for years been caught out by the country’s pervasive tipping cul- ture and its eye-watering expectations. At 20%, Amer~ {cas average tip rate is the highest in the world. The justification is that service workers can legally be paid as little as $2. per hour, soit is up to customers to do. the decent thing to ensure waiters, bartenders and the like can earna living wage. Touchscreen-based check- ‘outs mean customers are being asked to pay tips more often, and in unlikely places. They may find them- selves being asked for tips at convenience stores, by self-service machines and even on websites ‘Some hotels add gratuities for staff to the bill auto- ‘matically, thus taking the tip as a hidden fee. But itis not just America. Asking for tips has spread to other countries, because of the ubiquity of apps and contact- less payment systems. Australians grumble that food- delivery apps now add automatic tips. Indians are ‘often baffled by prompts to tip taxi drivers Might the fever of stealth price-rises finally break in 2024? Perhaps. Fallinginflation may temper the use of outlandish methods to maintain margins. Govern- ‘ments are making noises about regulation: in Ameri- «a, President Joe Biden wants to crack down on “junk’ fees. And consumers are pushing back. Americans complain of "tipping fatigue’. axtw recently scrapped its seat-warmer fees in response to customer anger. Airbnb has revamped its platform to make extra fees ‘more visible, There is, surely, an opportunity for firms prepared tooffersimple, “no hidden extras” pricing, Yet it seems more likely that having discovered myriad methods of padding prices, companies will keep doing so. Airlines are experimenting with un- bundling perks from business-class tickets. exw and Mercedes-Benz plan to go ahead with other fee-based ‘extras”. Demands for tips still abound. Indeed, one American airline now lets passengers tip their cabin crew. The cross-pollination of stealthflation tech- ‘niques evidently has some way to go. Expect to experi- lence more outragein 2024. @ Leo MIRANt Asia correspondent, ‘The Economist, Mumbaiaoe as PIE L eels KAL The Economist's editorial cartoonist Kevin (“KAC’) Kallaugher pictures the yearahead Social TING TO VOTE IN 2024 Ballot stuffingeat) Sirona Inthe age of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, how is Tokio Marine Group's purpose helping it deal with ‘emerging risks? Since our founding in 1879, we have always worked to deliver on ‘our purpose“to be there with our customers in times of need! standing by them through disasters and when they are stepping Into uncharted territory. ‘This age of unprecedented change brings a need for innovative solutions to the challenges we face. As a company foundedin Japan, we have experienced many major natural catastrophes over Our 140-plus years. Despite occupying only 0.25% of the worlds area and contributing 6 of global GDP Japan accounts for more than 20% of global economic losses from natural disasters. Trough these ‘experiences, we have eamt that to deal with great adversity we must always deliver on our commitments and work with our clients and ‘communities to create amore resilient society, Peed eee aan or Pee cua PO ROE eta eet esi Satoru Komiya, oe ‘Tobe part of the solution, we have been expanding our range of servicesin areas like loss control, risk detection recovery and reconstruction, and recurrence prevention, with new technologies advancing our efforts to do what we do well even better How is Tokio Marine Group using new technology to improve the resilience of ts customers and the cities they live in? \We are always thinking about how we can be robust and agile through the best mix f people and technology. Technology evolves, ‘but our people's ability to use it for better outcomes is what makes the teal difference. Insurance has always used data to evaluate isk, andl we must view «each new technological evolution from two perspectives First, new Standing with customers in times of need Tokio Marine believes insurance has two critical roles: to give people confidence to overcome the unexpected, and to help solve society's biggest issues. In an interview with Satoru Komiya, the group’s chief executive, we hear how the insurer is working to develop a resilient and sustainable society. technology brings new risks. We work with customersto mitigate the potential negative impacts ofimplementation Second, we have to think how we as a business can use technology to further enhance our services. Generative Alshows the need for this dual perspective. ts immense possibilty must be balanced with the obligation to protect and properly use data and intellectual propery, nternally, we are exploring howit ean support and enhance our people's decision-making. Externally, we are looking at how our clients and society ae planning to Implement Al and thinking how to support them in managing the risk ‘As we see more extreme weather events and an increasing ‘number of natural catastrophes, how can Tokio Marine Group contribute to achieving a sustainable future? Thisis the biggest challenge the insurance industry faces. We need to build resilience in mitigating and recovering from major events while working to adress thei root causes. We have deployed satellites and drones to provide rapid damage assessment, and created parametric Insurance to speed payment. We are aso working with our customers to help them build resilience in thelr businesses and lives. ‘Ac the same time, we must deal with the climate crsisand use the power of insurance to facilitate the transition to net zero. From sharing data to underwriting and investing innew green projects, insurance plays a critical rote. This philosophy and desir to create a sustainable society is reflected in the design of our new HO building in central Tokyo, scheduled for completion in 2028. 8y using Japanese timber and renewable energy forthe construction, we aim to reduce emissions bby half compated with traditional methods The building will stand sa symbol of ourcommitment asa group to realising a sustainable society for yearsto come. We remain committed to solving society's biggest issues, helping to accelerate progress while giving people and businesses the confidence they need to move forward in a word ul fk and possibilty & TOKIOMARINE GRouPSate Ee tad Resilient Cities Index A global benchmark of urban risk, response and recovery Top five ities across America, Europe and Asia have successfully built infrastructural, environmental, social and Reasraalia pease fests contuetoadntandow ani ucerantyonécungs Teyidertly 4A resilience strategy isnot risks and crete systems that enable businesses and resins torecover and thriveafter 4 Tpoanctcdevcnts The Reet cies nina dorkacsy Revwm nectarines Something developed at a desk the preparedness cfs citiesin four areas- rial infrastructure environment oo: by a city official. Cities need to inttutona ard economic bring a variety of stakeholders ‘The research highlights the following strategies to build resilience: together, including community + Incentive businesses and residents to gusrdagsinst future risks by wsingfinancial representation, the poor and rewards fr hitting targets the vulnerable.” Katrin Brvebach Globalciectoraf programmes snd dlvery ‘a cohesive response to shocks by integrating vulnerable groups and offering com: prehensive socal safety-nets innovative, scalable and cost-effective solutions through a dynamic business ecosystem, + Promote community stewardship through education and collaboration, ee) Sponsored by What is stopping cities from building holistic resilience? Read the report to find out more about the risks, rankings TOKIOMARINE and best practices at https:/impact.economist.com/projects/ ie GRouP2» Superforecasts Masters of prediction THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 Forecasts for key events in 2024, from the superforecasters at Good Judgment Jina predictions apourtne ure using ambiguous, carefully chosen words. thet forcaserprefer the ore pesiee Tanguage ot numbers Cod judgment a forcast, has vecralted many such to wok together to provide deta, Specie forests Here are thee predictions forevnts in 2004 + ‘What will the outcome of Britain's next general election be? Conservatives win a majority ofseats 41% ' Conservatives win a plurality ofseats 3% Labour win plurality of seats 22% —- Labour win a majority of seats 74% + ‘When will Russia and Ukraine sign orannounce an agreement to end the ‘current conflict? October 2023 0 March 2024 1% ' April 2024 10 September 2024 8% - Not before October 2024 91% + |a Quad country or China publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its military or other forces? Yes 21% No79% ee LAST YEAR'S PREDICTIONS. ‘The Good Judgment team had agood year in 2023, + ‘What will the result of the United States presidential election in 2024 be? Democratic nominee Winsthe electoraland popularvotes 63% winsthe electoral vote, but not the popular vore 2%, . Republican nominee winsthe electoraland popularvotes 10% — winsthe electoral vote, but not the popular vote 25% — + Will the euro zone experience two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth? Yes 14% — ‘No, but there will beat least one quarter of negative growth 82% << There will be no quarters of negativegrowth - 4% + What will China's annual GDP growth be in 2024? Less than 15% . Retween 1 - Between 3% and 4.5% ee Between 4.5% and 69 54% More than 6% 2% . 2% and 3% 4% 38% + ‘What will the world’s annual GDP growth be in 2024? Less than o% 4% Between o% and 1.5% 2% Between 15% and3% 62% Between 3% and 4.5 22% —a More than 4.5% 0% ¥ ‘How many seats (out of 543) will the ‘the ruling 8)P-Ied National Democratic Alliance win in the next Indian general election? 2jorfewer 6% — Between 272 and 298 24% ——<—< Between 299 and 325 47% Between 326 and 352 21% J 3530 more 2% Forecasting winner Congratulations to Zane Stacker, a legal professional based in the New York metro area, who has won The World Ahead 2023 forecasting challenge organised in collaboration with Good judgment. Like previous winners, he has been invited to join Good Judgments professional superforecasting team. Could you bea superforecaster, too? Test your own prediction skillsin our 2024 forecasting challenge, which runs until October 2024 atgjopen.com/economist Nigeria and Turkey, Vladimir Putin was not ousted, and there was no election in Britain, no clash over Taiwan, and no nuclear device detonated by Russia, The ninth ‘correctly forecasting the outcomes ofthe eight {questions that were resolved. Global growth was 3%, China grew by 5%, ruling-party candidates wonin {question related tothe end of the war in Ukraine. The superforecasters predicted it would be after October ast 2024, Events in 2023 did not prove them wrong.THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 UNITED STATES Armageddon election ‘A divisive unpopularity contest looms between Joe Biden and Donald Trump IDREES KAHLOON Washington bureau chief, The Economist, Washington, DC sk vores how they really feel and you find that the state of America’s union is unusually dismal In september 2023, when the Pew Research Centre asked Americans to reflecton their country’s politics, 665% of respondents said that they were always or often exhausted; 55% said they were typically driven to anger, just 10% expressed frequent flashes of hope; only 4% found themselves regularly excited. When. ina single word, many plumped fordivisive, corrupt, messy or bad. The ‘coming years likely to bring even greater malaise, In the presidential campaign, all signs point towards an octogenarian rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump. The main issue in the election will notbe anything conventional, like the economy or foreign policy, but whether either man is fit to serve in theoffice. The year-long unpopularity contest will see Mr Biden argue that his predecessor isan existential threat to the republic. Mr Trump, unashamed by the attempted insurrection on january 6th 2021r the many related criminal indictments he is fighting, will argue that the current president is too old and weak todeal with America’s problems, Both men will portray the other asa harbinger of the end of the country—and most ‘members of th competing eschatologies. The current president will tout“Bidenomics" and argue that his massive spendingon infrastructure has improved the lives of working people. MrTrump will point tothe discontent over inflation, which has eaten away at Americans’ real disposable incomes since Mr Biden took office, and the size ofthe national debt, which has also grown considerably. Itis unlikely that Mr Trump's policy proposals would improve the country's fiscal position: he aims to eave entitlement programmes untouched while cutting taxes and triggeringa trade war with the rest of the world through a10% tariff onall imports. But both men correctly see the road tothe White Houseas running through discontented working-class voters. Both of their economic pitches will aim to curry favour with this loc, regardless of actual feasibility. The strategy of Mr Trump, a man never confused % 6 8 ‘son this section Who to watch ‘The economy Foreign poley Fee speech online ‘smal towne cketin Ameria [Nill Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice con the new cold war22 UNITED STATES with a policy wonk, will be to whip Republicans into a state of frenzy. Hiscampaign rallies will echo the “American carnage” that he invoked in his first Inaugural address: that Mr Biden is threatening to destroy America by failing to secure the southern border, failing to curtail crime ordrug-overdose «deaths, and giving in to the leftist flank of his part ‘which aims to turn America into agodless haven for abortionists, criminals, the diversity-equity-and- inclusion bureaucracy and trans people, Rather than accept his loss in 2020, Mr Trump managed to Convince most of his supporters thatthe election had been stolen, When the alternativeto the Oval Office is likely tobea prison cel, his shetoric will be even more extreme and corrosive to democracy in 2024. ‘There are of course real differences in policy between the two men, but often in arenas that most American voters ignove. The two would lead foreign policy in wildly divergent directions. Though both a staunch protectionist, Mr Biden is not the isolationist that MrTrump is. Now that it hasbeen The people to watch in 2024 ‘Some are well known, some are not JAMES BENNET Lexington columnist, The Economist, Washington, Dc IME Was when American politics served up electrifying orat least surprising nominees to be president: Barack Obama, barely three years out of the Illinois state legislature, storming past Hillary Clinton; John MeCain overcoming, the scorn of conservatives; Donald Trump doing that thing he did in 2016; and even, lest you forget, oe Biden, once counted Mr Trump. will whip Republicans intoa frenzy THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 subsumed by the America First movement, the Republican Party seems ready to give up on funding Ukraine's war effort against Russia, Though both parties try to outdo each otheron hawkishness towards China, itis unclear whether Mr Trump would ‘commit American troops to defending Taiwan. Allies in Europe worry about the permanent erosion of America’s central position in Naro. Fighting back against the onslaught of Mr Trump's ppugilism requitesa kind of vigour that Mr Biden seems to lack, and will probably lack in greater {quantity by the time ofthe election. The hope from Mr Biden's supporters is that Mr Trump manages to defeat himself—through the constant reminder of January 6th that che criminal trials will bring, and the ‘unpopularity of Republican positions on issues like abortion. American electoral margins tend to be slim, heightening the existential angst that members of both parties fel, The outcome cannot be predicted fone year out. But an increase in the rates of exhaustion and anger looks very likely. @ ‘out because of his age and past centrism, clearing the field in 2020. ‘Now comes the 2024 political cycle, a triumph of recycling, President Biden and former President Trump are preparing to starin a sequel most Americans donot care tosee, That means that eyes will be on the vice-president, Kamala Harts, aswell, Because Mr Biden is the oldest president ever, and would be 82at his second Inauguration, voters will scrutinise Ms Harris with unusual care, The sequel does, however, promise some new plotlines: fr the fist time in presidential polities, courtroomaction ‘willattract moreattention than campaign events, and may prove more decisive. Mr Trump, the first president or former president ever indicted, faces 9 felony counts in fourcases and four jurisdictions, In Fulton County, Georgia, where he is charged overhisefforts to overturn the 2020 election, the trial will be televised and streamed live. ‘That will help make Fani Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, one of the ‘most important players in American polities in 2024, alongside Jack smith, the special counsel who has brought federal charges against Mr Trump in Florida, for absconding with classified documents, andin Washington, oc, for trying to overthrow democracy. Acquittals in these cases could help put Mr Trump back in the White House, but itis not certain that convictions would barthe door. That would depend on how successful ‘MrTrump proves in damaging the x ofthe prosecutors and of the legal system itself. He is busy portraying Ms Willisand Mr Smith as villains. Beyond the prosecutors’ own steely demeanours, their best defence will be the revelations of their witnesses and other evidence. In theend, ina country of 3gom,a small group will matter most. Mr Biden ‘won the popular vote in2020 by nearly ‘7m, but ifabout 44,000 votes in three States had gone the other way, he and Mr Trump would have been tied in the electoral college. The non-partisan Cook Political Report rates four states as oss-ups in 2024: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Inthe suburbs of those States are some voters who have not yet sworn loyalty to one tribe, They will, choose the next president. @ADVERTISEMENT MINERALS INCOME INVESTMENT FUND of Ghana (MIIF) seeks partnerships with North American investors for new opportunities in Ghana's mining industry Ghana's MIIF has stepped up efforts to attract North American partners into the Ghanaian mining space. MIIF, the sovereign minerals fund of Ghana, was created by law to manage the equity interests of the Government of Ghana in mining companies and collect and manage mining royalties due the state for purposes of investment. MIIF sees North America as a major growth pole for co: investments and partnerships. Major North American mining com: panies ike Newmont and Piedmont are expanding thelr interests in Ghana. Piedmont is positioning itself in lithium mining in Gana ‘through Atlantic Lithium, an Australian and UK-isted company through which itwillbe an offtake conduit for Tesla, MIF. for its part, just concluded an $32.9 Million equity investment into Atlantic Lithium which will start production in 2024, Likewise, MIIF success fully took an equity position in 2021 in Asante Gold Corporation, a Canadian-listed company, while acquiring Kinross Chirano Mine, a ‘Canadian mining company.in2022, BuildingNorthAmericanties °MIIF is working alongside our international partners, especially in Canada and the USA, to strengthen the value-offering of Ghana's, mining industry’, says Edward Koranteng, CEO of MIIF. North ‘America is interesting to MIIF because ofits extensive history of mining and related capital activities, which have created more value fromthemineral ealthinthe region, “Canada provides some clear best practice principles, especialy in the development ofits capital markets. Ghana must stil glean the benefits that come from our mineral wealth the way Canada has done! says Edward Koranteng, The wealth creation that comes from activities on the capital markets through initial public offerings, (POs), stock trading and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are of particularinterest to Ghana. MIIFis workingon agold-backed ETF to be listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange, with discussions alongside Bankof Montreal for alisting onthe TorontoStock Exchange. MIIF'sinterestin North America was piqued after acquiring over, 20 million shares in Asante Gold, a Vancouver-based company ‘operating mines in Ghana, The company recently acquired the CChirano Gold mine and operates Bibiani Mensin Gold Mine. Other projects in its portfolio are the Kubi, Betenase and Fahiakoba mines. Incorporated in 2011, the company is listed on the Canadian ‘Securities Exchange and has seen its market capitalization grow to $647 milion in 12 years, thanks to its operations in Ghana, Asante Golds considering further investments in the country, including the ‘Ashanti Il poject, which involves exploration concessions on the ‘Asankrangwa gold belt. Newmont Corporation ~ the world's biggest {gold mining company ~ started commercial operations in Ghana in 2006 through the Ahafo and ‘Akyem mines. Newmont’s board recentiy approved a further investment inexcess of $1 billion in a project in North Ahafo, Diversifyingthebase Thecountry'spotentialasan electric vehicle (EV) ma: rnufacturing hub ~ thanks to lithium and manganese de- posits ~ could be interest: ing to American investors Tesla, through Piedmont Lithium, looks to off-take Ghanaian lithium for their EVs. With eight automotive [i companies already setting Uupassembly plants in Ghana including Toyota (Japan), Nissan (Japan), Volkswagen (Germany), ‘Suzuki Japan), Peugeot (France) and Sinotruck (China) ~ Ghana has beenearmarkedasahigh-potentialEVhub. MIIF is readying itself to invest $30 million into what is potentially sub-Saharan Africa's largest salt project ~ the electro: ‘chem Ada Songhor industrial salt operation. This 41,000-acre area could mine over ten million tonsof 99.9% quality industrial salt. MIF is open to covinvestment options in this project which is set to be listed onthe Ghana Stock Exchange. MIIF has grown its assets under management from $170 milion in2021 0 $320 milionin2022, and 2023 projections set at $1 billion, By 2030 to portfolio could top $4billion. “Good governance, good treasury management, sound business development initiatives, nd anageressive mining royalty collection approachhave been crucialto MIIF's success” says Edward Koranteng For Koranteng, MIIF's focus on sustainable development is, central to the fund's mission: "As a sovereign fund, sustainability is central to our business decisions. Partnering with North American investors who equally value sustainability will bring ong.standing value tolnvestors andour county’ ie MINERALS INCOME INVESTMENT FUND24 UNITED staTES Hard numbers ‘The economy has dodged a recession, but it is not out of the woods yet SIMON RABINOVITCH US economics editor, ‘The Economist, Washington, DC Aizen’ tcononrin 2023 provideda lesson in humility for forecasters. Before the year began, almost all predicted that itwas heading for sluggish growth at best, anda recession at worst. The logic ‘was simple: beating inflation was bound to be painful. Instead, America powered ahead at anannualised pace of roughly 2% srowth, even as inflation receded, ‘This has persuaded many analysts to ditch their gloom. Their median forecast heading into 2024 is that America will avert a recession and get price pressures under control, This would qualify asa “softlanding” after the inflationary scare of recent years. But, given how wrong. many were about 2023, tis worth asking if the same is possible about 2024. Three dangers stand out. First, there is always a delay between ‘when central banks raise interest rates and ‘when the economy feels the effects. In 2023 consumers and companies had savings that limited their need for financing; in 2024 they will have thinner buffers, thus increasing their exposure 10 higher rates. Second, even though the Federal Reserve may have finished raising interest rates, rea rates will become progressively more restrctiveas inflation falls Finally, cracks are showing. Unemployment, though still lov, is ticking up. Once an economic slowdown gets under way, it risks feeding off itself Still there ought tobe one ‘unambiguously positive factorfor the ‘economy in 2024: inflation will be less of a concern. Ithas already tumbled froma year-on-year pace of 7 in mid-2022 to about 3%, Some worry thatthe “last mile” of wrestling it down to the Fed's target of 2% will be especially challenging, perhaps ‘prompting the central bank to raise its, Inflation target. twill have an ‘opportunity todo soatthe end of 2024, when itlaunchesa quinguennial review of itsmonetary-policy framework. But itis unlikely to be necessary. softening in housing rents salready filtering into inflation readings, a process ‘that will continue into 2024. Weaker ‘demand for goods will combine with fully healed supply chains, weighingon retail prices. Most crucial, loosening in the once ultra-tight jobs market will lad to slower ‘wage gains, Soby the end of 2024 inflation willbe weaker, even if notdowa tothe2% target. Indeed, the twin facts of slower growth and quiescent inflation will pave the way for the Fed to start cutting rates again, possibly as soon as mid-2024, ‘The biggest question for the coming year is how these trends will play into the presidential election. President Joe Biden And the Democrats have been frustrated by the low marks that American voters have given him on economic policy. Fewer than fourin ten adults approve of Mr Biden's handlingof theeconomy, despitea concerted push by his administration t0 highlight its achievements: avoiding a recession, keeping unemployment low and reining ininflation, as well as passing Jaws boosting investment in green energy, infrastructure and manufacturing But, fairly or not, this messaging has ‘not worked. Many people cannot look past the initial surge in inflation which took place on Mr Biden's watch. Prices are no Tonger rising quickly, but they are still nearly 20% higher than when he took office in January 2021. That isthe steepest increase under any president since Jimmy Carter's single termin the late1970s—an ominous precedent. Allis not lost for Mr Biden. As long as, inflation continues to recede, there may beenough time for voters’ perceptions to change. Scores for consumer sentiment, as measured by surveys, have risen since ‘mid-2022, even ifthey remain low by historical standards. Ifthe consensus is correct this time, and America does avoid recession, Mr Biden will havea propitious economic backdrop heading into the election in November. But the downside risks to growth goagainst that scenario: the economy may end up being more ofa hindrance than ahelp in his re-clectionbid. @ ‘After the spike Uniteastates Federal funds ate, parcentage pots Consumer pcs Sschange ona yer eater “ys oreo imeange sous Be Hp Eonenc Indo cHE Cg renee THE WORLD AHEAD 2028 Overstretched superpower With crises in Ukraine and Israel, can America still defend Taiwan? ANTON 1A GuaxD1A Diplomaticeditor, ‘The Economist, Washington, DC .N JO BIDEN entered the White House his priority was toestablish “a stable, predictable relationship” with Russia and end America's "forever wars” in thegreater Middle East, to concentrate ‘onthe economy at home and rivalry with China abroad. It did not work out that way. ‘Russia invaded Ukraine; Hamas attacked Israel. As America helps its friends under assault, can itstill defend Taiwan? Strategists worry about a"window of vulnerability” inthe Indo-Pacific this decade, as China's forces grow stronger and America’s investments in new military equipment don’t fully bear fruit until the 20305. Concerns about this gap will deepen with theapproach of 2027, the year when XiJinping, China’ leader, ‘wants the People's Liberation Army to be able to invade Taiwan if ordered to do so, But whethera war breaks out does not just {depend on the military balance. Much will bedetermined by politics. And with both ‘America and Taiwan holding elections in 2024, the danger period may start soon. Despite talk of America’s decline, it remains a military colossus, accounting for 39% of global defence spending at market exchange rates. Butas Australia’s defence strategic review concluded in April2023, "The United States is no longer the unipolar leader of the Indo-Pacific” ‘The changing balance places premium ‘on America’s unparalleled network of alliances. Mr Biden has worked hard at repairing the damage to this network ‘wrought by his predecessor, Donald ‘Trump. Naro has united, expanded and rallied to support Ukraine, Asianallies have helped, too. There is no Naro in the Indo-Pacific, but Japan is sharply boosting defence spending and ‘America is building up its presence in ‘Australia [is also weaving a“latticework” (of ad hoe partnerships. These include the AUKus deal with Britain to supply ‘Australia with nuclear-powered submarinesand jointly develop other ‘weapons; adefence-industrial deal with India to produce jetengines; and the Philippines’ agreement to grant America access to several bases. Expect America (0.THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 add more such strands in 2024. ‘Much depends on the perception of America's credibility and capacity. On Credibility, critics of Mr Biden believe ‘America's pell-mell departure from Afghanistan in 2021 signalled weakness to “America’s foes, Similarly, athers contend that cutting aid to Ukraine would granta victory not just to Russia but to China, too. As or capacity, the Pentagon longago abandoned the requirement that its armed forces be able to fight two major regional vwarssimultaneously Instead it now seeks to "“deterand, if necessary, prevail in conflict’ againsta majoradversary, while also being able to “deter opportunistic aggression elsewhere’ ‘In Europe Mr Biden has helped Ukraine ‘without sending American forces, and deployed more units to Europe to deter attacks on NATO. Inthe Middle Fast, he sent two aircraft-carrier strike groups to the region, and strengthened other forces, to deter atiacksby Iranand its proxies. On the face ofit, supporting friends isa cheaper way to preserve American power than direct involvement in wars, asin Iraq and Afghanistan. But American defence firms are struggling to boost production to supply allies while replenishing depleted “American stocks. War games suggest ‘America would run out of long-range anti-ship missiles within days of war ‘with China over Taiwan, “We havea one- ‘war military and a two-week industrial base," notes Kori Schake ofthe American Enterprise Institute, think-tank. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to sustaining America’s role inthe world is Political dysfunction athome. “America first” Republicans have hampered normal Dudgetingand have grown especially hostileto funding the warin Ukraine. tf they succeed in cutting aid to Ukraine in 2024, allies everywhere will shudder— doubly soiftheirchampion, Mr Trump, is clected president. @ niTeD stares 25 Online safety v free speech State internet-safety laws, ‘meet the First Amendment ‘TAMARA GILKES BORR Us public policy correspondent, The Economist HE FIRST AMENDMENT—which prevents the government from ‘abridging the freedom of speech’—is foundational to America’s democracy. Several states have recently passed legislation to regulate the tech industry that may violate this fundamental right. In 2024, tech companies will fightback ‘Thebig question is whether acountry with First-Amendment protections can regulate tech atall, The Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (coPeA), which went into effect in 2000, requires websites toobtain parental consent before collecting, using, or disclosing personal data from children under 5, Aside from thislaw, the tech industry operated with limited regulation for 20 years. Now statehouses on both sides ofthe political divide have stepped in to fil this void. The state policies can be splitinto two broad categories. Onetype of law claims to protect children. California's governor Signed the California Age-Appropriate Design Code Actin September 2022. It requires companies to be more careful about how they interact with children. Floridaand Connecticut have drafted similar bills, but in September a federal judge temporarily blocked California's law over First-Amendment concerns. A related law in Arkansas wasalso blocked, The worry isthat these laws restrict the publication of free speech. ‘second type of law attempis to regulate how tech companies moderate content. law in Florida prohibits social-media companies from. ‘deplatforming” users. Texas's version of the law would prevent companies from removing posts or banning users based on their political viewpoints. A federal judge ‘upheld Texas's law, but the policy in Florida was blocked by a federal judge. The tech firms argue that being able to decide ‘what to publish and what to take down, without government interference, are constitutionally protected freedoms. “These cases will force America's legal system to reckon with complicated ‘questions. The idea that the government cannot limitspeech (with exceptions such as defamation and obscenity) extends to media companies and their sight to edi content, But does it include tech firms" ‘moderation of posts and feeds? A further question centres on the First-Amendment rights of children. The Supreme Court has ruled that children do not “shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate” and have a right to read controversial books, But italso says harmful materials can be restricted. How thisapplies to the internet is unclear. Nethoice, a trade organisation that counts Meta, Google and othertech firms as members, says the new laws are ‘unconstitutional. thas sued Arkansas, California and Texas, and shows no sign of backing down. atleastone case, relating toe'forts by Florida and Texas to intervene in ontent moderation, may reach the Supreme Courtin the comingyear. @Small is beautiful REBECCAJACKSON Souther correspondent, The Economist, Austin (ag eer nusTi weir has Keen more of asiog han localsanticpated, inundated with Silicon Valey refugees nd Manhattan defectors the Texan cityonce known forits cool subcuturehas become 2 tech metropolis. Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta and Tesla setup shop there offeringjobs, that made ta magnet. From 20100 2020 metropolitan ‘Austin’s population grew by more thanthat of anyother big tty. by one-third to23m, thas since bustat the seams. Housing supply has failed to keepup with recketingdemand.n September the Austin Board of Realtors said the ctyisshort oft52,000 affordable two-person homes, Locals are getting priced out, homeless people line the downtown Streets andtrafiis hellish ‘ities across the Sun Bet from Charlotte to Dallas have seenan nfuxofnencomners ‘ert past decade Dubbed the new great migration t has been led by thousandsof black college graduates ‘4 Welcoming everyone ‘moving south, fuelling urban renewal in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, even as cities in the north-east, Midwest andwest shrink. And small southern towns are growing fastest Some of thats because of a thirst for small-town living and an ablity to work remotely, brought on by the pandemic. |n2020 more people moved to places with fewer than 30,000, residents than to oneswith ‘more than 80,000. Even after mask mandates eased, the trend continued. Census counts up touly 2022 show that small metro areasin the South saw 0.9 new arrivals per 100 residents, while southern cities hadjusto6. Daphne, Alabama, a fishing town on the Gulfcoast, fared better than Birmingham, acity Whose population did not budge. Spartanburg, South Carolina, had twice the in-migration rateof much larger Charleston, This trend will continue in 2024.In2020 the local council ofa cluster of 3 mid-sized towns inthe Ozark mountaine cof north-west Arkansas offered movers $1,000 and a bicycle. Now they no longer need incentives, At the current ‘migration rate, the areais projected to doublein size, hitting im residents by 2045 The townsare creating amore cosmopolitan feel by building hotels and transport services. InSeptember the council was advertising r,000 new jobs. A golden age for hamlets of the Southis coming, THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 From long leg to silly mid-off £0 muRan1 Asia correspondent, The Beonomist, Mumbat ‘1994, WHEN America hosted the FIFA ‘men’s football World Cup, just 20% of ‘Americans even knew it was happeningin their country. Today nearly athird of Americans who follow sports describe themselves as “avid” fans of soccer, no doubt helped by two consecutive World Cup victories, in 2015 and 2019, by their Three decades after football's first big American outing, cricket is starting its ‘own journey in the world’s most valuable‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 > sports market. In June 2024 the United States will jointly with the West Indies, host the men’s Twenty20 World Cup—the shortest and most popular form of cricket, inwhich each game lasts three hours, not fivedays. Around a third ofthe 55 matches willtake place in America. The American team, as host, automatically qualifies for the tournament—its first-ever top-tier competition—and is hoping it will bea ‘coming-out patty for American cricket. For most Americans, cricket has (not unreasonably) a reputation asa sport with impenetrable rules. For now, itremains a niche interest pursued mostly by immigrants and their children. Indeed, the majority of the American cricket team ‘consists of players with roots in South, {sia and the Caribbean. Rut that isstilla ‘group numbering some 6.5m people in ‘America, a sizeable audience. Anew professional tournamentin America called Major League Cricket (stLc) debuted in 2025 0 largely positive, if slightly bemused, media coverage. MLC Intends to organise its event back to back Cricket is not the only sport trying to raise its profile in America with the World Cup in 2024 to makeita “summer of cricket” in America. And the hopes that the momentum will build from there: in October the International olympic Committee announced that both men’s and women's cricket would be included at the Olympic games in Los ‘Angeles in 2028. Cricket is notthe only sporttrying to raiseits profile in America. In 2022 the United states hosted the World athletics Championship forthe first time. The next FIFA men’s football World Cup, in 2028, ‘will be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada and Mexico. And the rugby World Cup will be staged in America forthe first timein 2031 ‘The fact that the United States team is unlikely to progress beyond the group stages of the cricket World Cups beside the point. A cricket match framed against the skyline of abig American city isbound to generate publicity for the sport. And for the United States squad, playing against ‘the world’s best eams—witha global audience—is itself an opportunity unlike any ithas had before Building a new audience fora sportis, afterall, less like the action-packed ‘Twenty20 version of the game, and more closely resembles it five-day incarnation, the Test match:a slow accumulation of small victories and close shaves that isa testof endurance and determination as muchasitisof skill. @ Is your city heatproof? Extreme heat will bake America's cities, but there are ways to prepare ARVIN BRAUN West Coast correspondent, ‘The Economist, Los Angeles Tritt Monsoon sate gain, without the almost biblical rains, there is nothing tobreak the heat during long stretch of| days above 43°C (109°F). The pavement is, scalding. Hospital wards are filing with burn vietims. Even the cacti seem crispy. ‘Many people venture out only inthe early ‘morning, before the sun rises. The rest of the time they take refuge in air- conditioned rooms: the invention that ‘makes life in the desert possible. “This was the scene in Phoenix, Arizona in July 2023. But whatifthe demand for electricity to power those air-conditioners hhad stretched the grid to breaking point? A study published in Environmental Science and Technology, ajournal, suggests that a five-day heatwave in Phoenix, with a blackout, could kill more than 3,000 peopleand send more than half ofthe city’s residents to hospital. This is Phoenix's worst-case scenario, But heatwaves do not not need to cause catastrophic power loss to threaten people’ lives. The urban heat-island effect ‘means that city centres can be much hotter than surrounding areas because roads and buildings absorb and trap heat. Burning up Ferecast umber of aye exceeding» hes Index temperature of 10°F (38°) n 2053, Losangel vnireD stares 27 Los Angeles, Miami and Phoenix have hired “chiet heat officers” tooversee ‘emergency response and adaptation plans. in 2024, which may be the hottest yearon record, more cities will appoint ‘such officals. Ever more will adopt new techinofogy such as cool pavements, which reflect rather than absorb sunlight. Trees ‘willbe planted for shade. city officals will ‘open more cooling centres and try to coax. unsheltered homeless people, who are amongthe most vulnerable to heat exhaustion, inside. ut 2024 willalso bring political challenges. In America there are no federal heat protections for workers. President Joe Biden has directed the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to create ‘a national standard for worker heat-saety, bbut that could take years. And if Mr Biden loses the election, pending climate regulation may be scrapped. Things look ‘only mildly better at the state evel. Just five states have enacted such worker protections; all of hemare run by Democrats. Some cities in Republican-led states, are taking matters into theirown hands. “The state hasn't really addressed extreme heat orcarbon mitigation atall” says Jane Gilbert, the chief heat officer for Florida's ‘Miami-Dade County. Yetshe was the first in the world tohold her title, and, along with the mayor, has made heat a priority for the county. ‘Miami and Phoenix atleast know that theirsummers will be hot, But climate ‘change is also bringing extreme heat to places unaccustomed to it. The First Street Foundation, anon-profit group, reckons ‘that an “extreme heat belt" will emerge in the centre of America over the next 30 years (see map). Perhaps these places, t00, willsoon have heat chiefs of their own. @ Nota28 UNITED STATES By Invitation Five cold-war lessons THE WORLD AHEAD 2028 HE INTENSIFYING tivalry between America and China has led to much talkofa new cold war. Some say that is going too far, but the two do ‘seem now to have little space Tor co-operation and rather more for conflict ‘The greatest difference with the first cold wars, of course, the origin ofthis rivalry. After the second world war, the two superpowers settled quickly into confrontation. They had little in common. The Soviet Union was a military giant but an economic recluse. China, conversely, was brought into the international economy after 1978. For 30 years it benefited from integration and access to foreign capitaland ‘know-how. Along the way, it acquired an aptitude for indi ‘genous innovation, not just intellectual-property theft. {nd China had been chippingaway at American power for years. But ittook the more ditect approach of Xi Jinping, who speaks of surpassing America in frontier technologies and referstothe ‘Taiwan Staitas Chinese national waters, o shock ‘America into understanding the challenge ahead, China has builtan Impressive global network of telecoms infrastructure, port access and military bases (or rights to build them) in client states. Chinese influence has steadily evolved from pure mercantilism to adesire for political influence. America thas been slow to react. Too often it resorts tocajoling of other countries to resist Chinese investment, while offering few alternatives. The truth is, though, that Cchina’sforeign-investment strategy is beginning o show cracks. Its “Toan-to-own’ approach, its reliance on Chinese rather than local wworkersand its infrastructure construction failures are Military strength matters, as doallies, say Niall Ferguson and Condoleezza Rice of Stanford's Hoover Institution arousing resentment. Inthecold warand after, the Marshall Plan, the Peace Corps, the American-backed ‘green revolution’ in Indian agriculture and the prpraR initiative to tackle HIV/AIDS showed that America could improve the lives of people abroad, The question today is how faritcan takeadvantage of Chinese missteps with an equally effective strategy. From the 1940510 the 1980s the Hoover Institution, where weare both fellows, fostered the study ofthe cold war. Its archives remain crucial to scholars ofthe period. We For deterrence, military ‘capability must match thetoric. Peace through strength really works would do well to understand it and totakeiits lessons to heart Fivestand out. ‘The frst is that allies ‘matter. China has clients that are beholden to tinone way for another. Russia, the most important, has become a liability because of Viadimir Putin's war on Ukraine ‘America, meanwhile, is blessed with a European alliance revitalised by its firm response to Russia's aggression, a stronger NATO and closeailies in Asia, ‘Second, deterrence requires military capability to match shetoric. china has been improving every aspectof its military capability, just asthe warin Ukraine and wargaming about Taiwran have revealed Weaknesses in the West's. The West must respond by procuring more advanced ‘weaponry, developing secure supply chains foreritical materials and components, and rebuilding the defence- industrial base, Peace through strength really works Third, we need to engagein efforts to avoid accidental war. ‘To this day we benefit from. contacts between the ‘Americanand Russian armed forces (established during the ‘cold war) to prevent an accident between them. Fourth, remember George Kennan, the American «diplomat based in Moscow ‘who wrote the “long telegram” in1946, predicting thatthe Soviet Union's own internal contradictions would eventually weaken it. Chinas, economically stronger than the Soviet Union but has many of ts own contradictions: a deflating property sector, high youth unemployment and disastrous demography. The inal lesson ofthe first cold wat is that nothingis inevitable. Suecess today will require democracies to come toterms with their own flaws and contradictions—not east, the fractures in society amplified in online echo- chambers. Falureto safeguard the legitimacy of institutions that protect freedom has led to plummeting confidence in democracy itself Yet democracies havebeen counted outbefore by authoritarians who mistook the cacophony of freedom for wweaknessand assumed that the suppression of dissenting voices in their own societies ‘was a sign of strength. The best cold-warleaders understood thatthe authoritarians were wrong. Ifthis generation of leaders ean show similar resolve, the outcome of this, new superpower rivalry— whether itis asecond cold war or something new— should beanother victory for the free world. @‘THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 THE AMERICAS A libertarian wave? The old divide between left and right ‘may be disrupted in 2024 EMMA HOGAN Americas editor, The Economist ‘arin aMeRICA has long been dominated by left-wing political parties. During a commodities ‘boom in the early 2000s, a series of left-wing governments in the region came tobe knownas the “pink tide” for thetrstatist policies and social handouts boosted by a sudden influx of cash. This ‘was followed, however, by a"blue tide" of right-wing leaders, such'as Mauricio Macri in Argentina and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, who pushed back in the 2010s. By the start of 2023 tseemed that another era of progressive polities had dawned, as 12 of19 countries ‘were run by left-wing governments. That represented whopping 92% ofthe region’ population and 90% of its Gor. But 2024 looks set tobe the year when the old divisions between leftand right recede. Politics in the region will become fat more complicated. The first reason for this is the rise, in Argentina, of Javier Milel. A self-described “anarcho-capitalist’, the radical libertarian was due to go head-to-head with Sergio Massa, the economy minister, inthe presidential election run-off on November s9th. Awin would make Mr Milei the first avowedly libertarian president in Latin America (and, indeed, the world). His rise has been meteoric. Even in the event of aloss To Mr Massa, he has upended the status quo in Argentina, long dominated by the left-wing populism of the Peronist movement, by making free-market ideas popular. Much of his appeal isdue to the fact he isan outsider: the economistand former Tv pundit entered Argentina's Congress only in 2021, ‘MrMilei often talks in a populist mode. But his proposals are far more sweeping and radical than, those of most right-wing populist, They include dollarising Argentina's economy (and scrapping the central bank), slashing public spending by at least5% of opr and reducing the numberof government ministries from 18 toeight. He talks of achievinga zero primary deficit i, before interest payments) withina year. And although Mr Mile is pro-free-trade, headvocates pulling Argentina out of Mercosur, a free-tradeagreement. He regularly bashes the governments of Brazil and China, thecountry’stop {wo trading partners, for being left-wing. The second reason for the new complexity isthat ‘many ofthe left-wing governments are going into Alon this section 30 Mesican democracy 23 Then startups 31 Groen resources ‘32 Canadian plies30 THE AMERICAS 2024 with much weaker mandates. Consider Mexico. Ithasa presidential election in une. Claudia Sheinbaum, of the ruling Morena party is likel ‘win Gee next story). Ms Sheinbaum is seen as th hand-picked successor of Andrés Manuel Lopez CObrador, the president since 2018 who has combined left-wing rhetoric with fiscal hawkishness, Although most Mexicans think his record on issues suchas public security, corruption and the economy is poor, he has high approval ratings, of above 60%. It unlikely that Ms Sheinbaum, ifshe wins, will be able tosustain such high levels of support She will have to ‘compromise, work with the opposition and curb some of her more radical plansasa result Similarly in Colombia, some believe the government of Gustavo Petro, that country’s first avowedly left-wing president, is unlikely to last until the end ofits term in 2026. Mr Petro reshutfled his cabinet in April 2023, in order to ty to push through hisambitious reforms ofthe tax, health and pension systems, But he has been stymied in hisefforts, So far to First lady Mexico will elect its first female president ‘SARAH BIRKE Mexico City bureau chief, The Economist, Mexico City EXICO'S ELECTIONS on June 2nd 2024 will go down in history. Never before have there been so many voters on the electoral roll orso many posts up for grabs, Mexicans willelect a new president and all 628 members ofthe two chambers ‘of congress, as well as nine state governors, multiple local legislatures and Latin America seems set for a mixed political picture in the near future 4 After AMLO THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 only the tax reform has passed, in a watered-down version, Mr Petro has aso been tarnished by scandals involving members of his family and his staff In hile, Gabriel Boric,a millennial social democrat who came to poweron the back of huge protests against inequality, has seen his approval ratings drop because of rising crime and a weakening economy. He also backed an attempt to rewrite Chiles constitution tha faltered in 2022, with 61% of voters rejecting it ina plebiscite, many of them because they feltit leaned too far left. A vote on another draft is due in December 2023. Mr Boric has surrounded himself with capable politicians, but the wrangling overt constitution has overshadowed his presideney and limited his successes, So it seems unlikely that any new tides, pink or blue, will sweep the region in 2024. Instead, Latin America seems set fora mixed political picture in the near future. Perhaps the biggest question is whether other countries will follow Argentinas example—and {include wild card like Mr Milei in the mix. @ ‘other local positions—around 20,000 roles, And itis almost certain that the top. job will go toa woman for the first time both the ruling Morena party and the main ‘opposition coalition are fielding female Presidential candidates. Despite the democratic significance of these elections, they are taking place under difficult conditions. President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador’s divisive thetoric and erosion of democratic norms have taken their toll. He has sought to ‘weaken theauthority of the Instituto Nacional Electoral, the electoral bod Though his policies have reduced poverty, the picture is nuanced, Social handouts have often been used to secure votes. and the number of people with access to health-care services has declined on his, watch. Reported murders, although still shockingly high at around 30,000 a year, have allen slighty, but disappearances (mainly murders without abody) have risen significantly to around 9,500 a Year. ‘Theeconomy is stable, but MrLopez Obrador’s anti-business actions have ‘undercut the commercial benefits of proximity to the United States, The list of \wrong-headed policies is long, including backing fossil fuels, empowering the armed forces and an ill-planned shake-up of the school curriculum, But Mexicans may not seea radical change from their next president, who willassume officeon October sst. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Morena candidate, seems likely to prevail over Xochitl Galvez, of the ‘opposition. Ms Sheinbaum, who was ‘mayor (equivalent to state governor) of Mexico City from 2038 fo June 2023, is the president's protégée, and has promised to ‘continue his idiosyncratic mix of policies, She is, however, less confrontational than her mentorand would bring herown approach to governance, indicating she ‘would be more business-friendly and environmentally conscious, Her administration’sadept management of security led toa faster drop in the murder rate in the capital than elsewhere. she would also face more checks on her power. Morena and itsallies are unlikely to win the super majority in congress that they had between 20:8 and 2023,50 negotiation and compromise will be necessary. Turbulence is likely, both before and after the elections. Criminal groups have become increasingly brazen, threatening and killing local candidates, who refuse to co-operate with them. @THE WORLD AHEAD 2024 Latinnovation Startups flourish around the region's pain points, ‘SARAH BIRKE Bureau chief for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, The Economist, Mexico City -TARTUPS HAVE been a brightspot for Latin America in recent years. The number backed by venture capital more than doubled between 2020 and 2023110 over 2,500, according to Lavca, an association for regional investors. In2021 Latin American startups attracted around §$16bn in investment, roughly as much as Inthe previous ten years combined. Startup activity exploded during the pandemic. As elsewhere, people confined to their homes wanted to shop, consult doctorsand much more without leaving the house. Many existing firms did not, have online portals, oratleast not user-friendly ones. It helped that SoftBank, aJapanese investment behemoth, had launched its frst fund for Latin America in 2019, worth $sbn. Other funds followed suit. Since then investors have calmed down, Global economic conditions have bbeena factor, too. In 2024 startup funding ‘ill probably stabilise at around its pre-pandemic evel. But the number of startups will increase. More will find backing from venture capital, including local funds, which are now proliferating. Aselsewhere, many Latin American startups aim to make life more convenient—groceriesor takeaway food delivered to your door, for example, The likes of Cornershop, aChilean app that started in 2015 and was bought by Uberin 2020, and Rappi, aColombian app, are now used across the region. Both have expanded todo more, including delivering small parcelsand running errands, But startupsalso reflect the particular “pain points” faced by people in Latin America. Logistics is one fertile area, The region's postal services are shoddy and, slowand alot goes missing. E-commerce startups such as Mercado Libre have established their owa logistics arms. Startupsate likely toexpand into business-to-business deliveries, especially if Mexico attracts more manufacturers seeking to move ‘operations from China, Another pain point is low trustand lack of legal recourse when things go, wrong, Kavak, based in Mexico, isa platform on which people buy and sell second-hand cars Its founders realised buyers did not have confidence in sellers to tell thetruth, so they stepped in asa middleman. similar platforms exist for property. Loft, in Brazil, buys, remodels andsells apartments and houses. Users can sell their pad to Loft, apartment-swap or simply list property on its website. Brazil has long been the most established startup hub, followed by Mexico, Colombia, Chileand Argentina, Expect Some countries to produce their first unicorns (companies valued at over $Sibn) and more cities, not just capitals, becoming startup centres too. Other countries will also see more activity as startups expand across regional borders. Nubank, a Brazilian firm, is one ‘example to watch. In mid-2023 itbecame Brazil's fourth-largest bank by number of customers (ithas Som) and has expanded toColombiaand Mexico. The region is. home to millions of unbanked people, and plenty of banks that stick to traditional, expensive models. ‘What will stil belacking in 2024 is. substantial official support. Governments, around the region have cheered on innovation, but noneoffers anything like the support services for entrepreneurs, that made successful startup hubs of countries like Israel or Singapore. Slow bureaucracies and out-of-date rules continue to frustrate. Evens, startup activity will continue to thrive. Entrepreneurs inthe region point out that they have tobe resilient to get to where they are, Turning the region's obstacles to theirbusiness advantage is what makes Latin America’s startups so dynamic. @ Starting to motor Latin Ameria cult numberof startups receiving venturecapital funding, '000 Pes moter Argentina Gobmba hie ence mba2i mais 19h THE AMERICAS 31 A resource blessing? Latin America could lead the way on green power ANALANKES Latin America contespondent, The Economist, S40 Paulo JORCENTURIES Latin America hasbeen, dogged by the resource curse. Its abundant natural resources have never translated intoa lasting, society-wide ascent into broader prosperity. Many are hopingtthis will change with the global transition to clean energy. The region holds more than half the world's lithium, used in electric-vehicle batteries; produces over a third ofits copper, for electrical wiring; and churns out more than hal ts silver, crucial for solar panels. Itis also hometo around half of the ‘world’s biodiversity and a quarter ofits, forests. Inthe coming years, regional leaders hope that Latin America can take offas agreen power. Its resources are not just material ‘Thanks toample wind and sun, and strong rivers, more than a quarter ofits primary energy currently comes from renewable sources, twice the global average. ‘According tothe Global Energy Monitor, a ‘San Francisco-based charity, 320 gigawatts (of solar- and wind-power projects are expected to come online by 2030, an increase of 460% over existing solar and wind capacity-Theinfrastructureto32 THE AMERICAS » transmit this energy is expanding, too. In 2024 Brazil will auction transmission lines which, together with two auctions in 2023, could bring in as much as $i4bn, Tatin America could also becomea significant low-cost producer of so-called “green” hydrogen, made from renewable sources, aclean alternative to fossil fuels for some uses. Brazil's congress is soon, expected to pass regulatory frameworks for offshore wind and green hydrogen, which could unlock billions of dollars in Investment. A quarter ofall green- hydrogen projects are in atin America, the highest share globally. Chile plans to produce the world’s cheapest by 2030, and beamong the top three exporters by 2040. ‘The region isalsoat the forefront of climate-finance innovation. In 2022 Chile became the first country in the world to issue bonds with a reduced interest rateif itmeets sustainability goals, raising S2bn, ‘Uruguay followed suit, raising almost $abn. In 2023 Ecuador conducted the ‘world’s largest debt-for-nature swap, with the savings going towards protecting the Galapagos islands; the country's departing president has called biodiversity a new “currency”. The trend will continuein 2024, including asustainable-bond issue in Brazil worth an estimated S2bn. ‘The continent willoffertwocase studies of whether fossil-fuel-dependent economies can quickly gogreen. In ‘August, Ecuadoreans voted to ban oll

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