MEDIARELEASE

(December 07, 2011)

FROM:

Prof. Ronald D. Holmes President Pulse Asia, Inc.

RE:

Pulse Asias November 2011 Nationwide Survey on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections from the November 2011 Ulat ng Bayan national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information. The survey fieldwork was conducted from November 10 to 23, 2011 using faceto-face interviews. The following developments dominated the headlines: (1) the Supreme Court's issuance of a temporary restraining order (TRO) on the watch list order against former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and former First Gentleman Jose Miguel T. Arroyo; (2) acting on orders of Department of Justice Secretary Leila de Lima, the immigration officials' preventing the former First Couple from leaving the country despite the SC TRO; (3) the arrest of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo on 18 November 2011 on charges of electoral fraud in the May 2007 elections; (4) the murder of a son of former Senator Ramon Revilla, Sr. and the alleged involvement of family members in the murder plot; (5) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit attended by President Benigno S. Aquino III; (6) the visit to the Philippines by U.S. State Secretary Hillary Clinton and South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak; (7) the Bureau of Internal Revenues (BIR) continued campaign against tax evaders; (8) the commemoration of the second anniversary of the Maguindanao massacre; (9) the issuance of a hold departure

order against retired Maj. Gen. Jacinto Ligot and his wife following the filing of tax evasion charges against the couple; (10) government financial assistance given to several rebel groups; (11) the Supreme Court decision mandating the distribution of the lands of Hacienda Luisita to about 6,000 farmer beneficiaries; (12) the passage of the national budget by the Senate and (13) depreciation of the Philippine peso and increase in diesel prices and power rates. Other developments during this period include Saranggani Representative Emmanuel D. Pacquiaos controversial win over Mexican boxer Juan Manuel Marquez, the appointment of Maj. Gen. Emmanuel Bautista as the new chief of the Philippine Army and the inclusion of the Palawan Underground River as one of the provisional winners in the search for the new seven wonders of nature. As in our previous surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey's questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used. Pulse Asias pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort. For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia President at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow at 09189436816.

Pulse Asias November 2011 Ulat ng Bayan Survey: Media Release on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections 07 December 2011 Filipinos are naming a mean of 9 and a median of 11 senatorial candidates (out of 12) for the coming midterm elections; about one in two Filipinos (47%) already has a complete slate for the May 2013 elections Even though there are still 18 months to go before the next senatorial elections, public interest in the electoral exercise is already apparent with Filipinos naming a mean of 9 and a median of 11 of their preferred senatorial candidates (out of a maximum of 12) for May 2013. Across geographic areas and socio-demographic groupings, mean figures range from 7 in the oldest age group and among Ilocanos to 11 among Warays while median figures vary from 9 among residents of rural Luzon, those aged 65 years old and above, those with at best an elementary education, college graduates, Aglipayans, Ilocanos, Kapampangans and Bicolanos to 12 among Visayans and particularly rural Visayans, Mindanaoans, those aged 18-34 years old, those with some high school education and high school graduates, members of Iglesia ni Cristo, those with other religious affiliations, Cebuanos, Warays and those from other ethnolinguistic groupings. Overall, 47% of Filipinos are already naming 12 of their favored candidates for the May 2013 elections. (Please refer to Tables 1 and 2.)

Table 1 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES

November 10 - 23, 2011 / Philippines
Page 1 of 2

Demographic variables Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Urban Rural Visayas Urban Rural Mindanao Urban Rural Total Urban Total Rural

(Estimated Population Percentage)

(100%) (13%) (44%) (21%) (23%) (20%) (7%) (13%) (23%) (7%) (16%) (49%) (51%) (7%) (66%) (46%) (20%) (27%) (50%) (50%) (16%) (24%) (21%) (17%) (14%) (8%)

Base: Total Interviews

Mean Median

9 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 9 8 7

11 11 10 10 9 12 10 12 12 12 12 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 10 11 10 9

Class ABC TOTAL D D1 (owns res'l lot) D2 (does not own res'l lot) E Male Female 18-24 years old 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 & up

Table 1 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES

November 10 - 23, 2011 / Philippines
Page 2 of 2

Demographic variables Total Philippines No formal educ/elem grad Some HS Completed HS Vocational Some college Completed coll/post coll Total Working Government Private Self-employed Farmer/Fisherfolk Not Working Roman Catholic Iglesia Ni Cristo Aglipayan Islam Others Tagalog Ilocano Pangasinense Kapampangan Bicolano Ilonggo Cebuano Waray Others

(Estimated Population Percentage)

(100%) (22%) (13%) (32%) (9%) (12%) (11%) (54%) (5%) (15%) (22%) (12%) (46%) (83%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (7%) (39%) (5%) (2%) (4%) (7%) (8%) (26%) (1%) (9%)

Base: Total Interviews

Mean Median

9 8 10 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 7 10 8 8 9 10 11 9

11 9 12 12 10 11 9 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 9 10 12 10 9 11 9 9 11 12 12 12

Table 2 2013 ELECTIONS: NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

November 10 - 23, 2011 / Philippines
(Estimated
Demographic variables

Population Percentage)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

0 5 5 7 2 5 11 5 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 4 1 1 6 2 4 3 4 2 4 8 2 3 3 8 4 3 4 4 2 2 6 4 1 5 5 3 7 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 2 6 2 5 6 7 5 6 5 4 5 5 5 3 8 5 7 5 4 5 8 6 3 9 6 5 6 10 5 4 5 10 10 6 6 7 4 7 8 6 6 11 5 4 5 4 3 6 4 5 12 47 50 39 52 55 36 48 45

Total Philippines NCR Balance Luzon Visayas Mindanao Class ABC TOTAL D E

(100%) (13%) (44%) (20%) (23%) (7%) (66%) (27%)

Fifteen probable candidates for senator have a statistical chance of making it to the Senate in the May 2013 elections If the May 2013 elections were held in early November 2011, fifteen individuals would have a statistical chance of winning a senatorial seat. Most of the probable winners are either former or incumbent members of the Senate. Emerging in the top spot is Senator Francis G. Escudero (65.6%), with Senator Loren Legarda (58.9%) in second place. Meanwhile, Transportation and Communications Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II (43.0%) is in 3rd-4th places. Also in 3rd place (with his lowest showing being 5th place) is Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano (40.3%). Completing the top five is former Vice-President Noli de Castro whose overall voter preference of 34.8% puts him anywhere from 4th to 8th places. (Please refer to Table 3.) Sharing 5th to 12th places are San Juan City Representative Joseph Victor Ejercito (30.4%), Senator Gregorio B. Honasan (29.6%) and Cagayan Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr. (29.5%). Senator Aquilino Martin Pimentel III (29.4%) and Justice Secretary Leila M. de Lima (29.4%) land in 6th to 12th places. Other probable winners are Senator Antonio F. Trillanes IV (28.7%), former Senator Juan Miguel F. Zubiri (26.9%), Aurora Province Representative Juan Edgardo M. Angara (24.3%), former Senator Ana Madrigal (24.0%) and former Senator Richard J. Gordon (22.1%). At best, these individuals would find themselves in 6th to 12th places but their lowest statistical rankings 14th to 20th places would put them out of the winners circle. Less than one in ten Filipinos (5.2%) does not have/refuses to name any preferred candidate for the May 2013 senatorial elections.

Table 3 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

November 10 - 23, 2011 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 1 of 2

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Aware

Voting For

Rank

ESCUDERO, Francis "Chiz" G. LEGARDA, Loren ROXAS, Manuel "Mar" A. II CAYETANO, Alan Peter "Compaero" S. DE CASTRO, Noli "Kabayan" EJERCITO, Joseph Victor "JV Estrada" HONASAN, Gregorio "Gringo" B. ENRILE, Juan Ponce "Jack Enrile" JR. PIMENTEL, Aquilino Martin "Koko" III DE LIMA, Leila M. TRILLANES, Antonio "Sonny" F. IV ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel "Migz" F. ANGARA, Juan Edgardo "Sonny" M. MADRIGAL, Ana "Jamby" GORDON, Richard "Dick" J. DEFENSOR, Michael "Mike" T. SANCHEZ, Korina REVILLAME, Willie TEODORO, Gilbert "Gibo" C. BINAY, Ma. Lourdes Nancy "Nancy" BIAZON, Rozzano Rufino "Ruffy" B. MARCOS, Imee R. DE VENECIA, Jose III "Joey" P. LIM, Danilo "General Danny" D. MERCADO, Lani DUTERTE, Sara ENRIQUEZ, Mike MAGSAYSAY, Ma. Milagros "Mitos" H. HONTIVEROS-BARAQUEL, Ana "Risa Hontiveros" GOMEZ, Richard "Goma" PICHAY, Prospero "Butch" C. Jr. HAGEDORN, Edward "Ed" AQUINO, Paolo Benigno "Bam" A. MONSOD, Solita "Mareng Winnie" C. QUERUBIN, Ariel "Marines" O.

99 100 93 99 95 96 99 88 97 94 98 96 88 88 89 86 95 95 88 51 69 89 81 57 93 54 89 49 63 95 82 57 39 74 58

65.6 58.9 43.0 40.3 34.8 30.4 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 28.7 26.9 24.3 24.0 22.1 21.2 20.7 18.8 18.1 17.8 17.3 14.7 12.1 11.7 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.2 8.5 8.4 8.4 7.2 7.1

1 2 3-4 3-5 4-8 5-12 5-12 5-12 6-12 6-12 6-14 6-15 11-17 11-17 12-20 13-21 13-21 15-22 15-22 15-22 16-22 18-29 22-30 22-33 22-33 22-33 22-33 22-33 22-33 23-38 24-39 24-39 24-39 30-44 30-44

Q106. Kung ang nasabing halalan sa 2013 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na na personalidad ang inyong iboboto kung sakaling sila ay kakandidato sa pagka-senador? Puwede kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan. (SHOWLIST) Q107. May nabasa o narinig na ba kayo ng kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod kahit na kailan?

Table 3 2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

November 10 - 23, 2011 / Philippines
(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)
Page 2 of 2

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Aware

Voting For

Rank

MANZANO, Eduardo "Edu" B. GONZALES, Neptali "Boyet" M. II REMULLA, Gilbert C. ACOSTA, Jr. Nereus "Neric" O. GOLEZ, Roilo S. OCAMPO, Saturnino "Satur" C. COJUANGCO, Mark O. TABERNA, Anthony "Ka Tonying" VILLAFUERTE, Luis Raymond "LRay" JR. GARCIA, Gwendolyn "Gwen" TOLENTINO, Francis N. LACIERDA, Edwin MANDANAS, Hermilando "Dodo" I. TAMANO, Adel A. PADACA, Grace ABAD, Florencio "Butch" B. PUNO, Ronaldo "Ronnie" SOLIMAN, Corazon "Dinky" J. QUEZON, Manuel "Manolo" L. III CLAVIO, Arnold "Igan" VILLANUEVA, Emmanuel Joel "Joel" J. TAADA, Lorenzo "Erin" R. III WEBB, Joanna Marie "Pinky" P. GATCHALIAN, Sherwin "Win" T. ZAMORA, Ronaldo "Ronnie" CASIO, Teddy A. DURANO, Joseph Ace "Ace" ROBREDO, Jesse "Jess" DOMINGO, Gregory "Greg" FARIAS, Rodolfo "Rudy" C. PANLILIO, Eduardo "Among Ed" CARANDANG, Ramon "Ricky" A. SUAREZ, Danilo "Danny" TUPAS, Niel JR. C. ALCALA, Proceso "Procy" J. DE QUIROS, Conrado "Conrad" None / Refused / Undecided

95 52 64 39 52 70 37 55 32 40 69 76 23 41 39 37 56 62 35 69 25 70 62 64 31 38 43 40 62 26 46 65 28 24 64 23 ---

7.0 6.7 6.6 6.1 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.4 5.2

30-44 30-45 30-45 31-48 34-55 34-57 34-57 35-59 35-59 38-61 39-61 39-62 39-62 40-62 40-62 40-62 40-62 40-63 40-64 40-64 40-64 40-64 42-67 42-67 45-67 45-67 47-70 53-71 54-71 58-71 58-71 58-71 62-71 62-71 62-71 63-71 ---

Q106. Kung ang nasabing halalan sa 2013 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na na personalidad ang inyong iboboto kung sakaling sila ay kakandidato sa pagka-senador? Puwede kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan. (SHOWLIST) Q107. May nabasa o narinig na ba kayo ng kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod kahit na kailan?