Quillois Novoi Win: 1ho (Aovoiso)

Inconlivo Llocls of Compoling wilh Supoislais

Jonnifoi Liown

Noilhwosloin Univoisily
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SoplomLoi 2011
ALstract
Managois uso inloinal compolilion lo molivalo woikoi oloil, yol oconomic lhooiy
suggosls lhal lho Lonolls of compolilion may oopono ciilically on woikois` iolalivo
aLililioslaigo oiloioncos in skill may ioouco compolilois` oloils. 1his papoi usos
panol oala fiom piofossional golfois ano lnos lhal lho piosonco of a supoislai in a
iank-oiooi louinamonl is associaloo wilh lowoi compoliloi poifoimanco. On avoiago,
IGA golfois` lisl-iouno scoios aio appioximaloly 0.2 sliokos woiso whon 1igoi Wooos
pailicipalos, iolalivo lo whon Wooos is aLsonl. 1ho ovoiall supoislai olocl foi louina-
monl scoios is appioximaloly 0.8 sliokos. 1ho aovoiso supoislai olocl incioasos whon
Wooos is playing woll ano oisappoais ouiing Wooos`s woakoi poiioos. 1hoio is no
ovioonco lhal iooucoo poifoimanco is alliiLulaLlo lo lho inlonsily of mooia allonlion
oi lho aooplion of iisky slialogios.
Keyvords: tournanent, eort, suerstar, IncentIves.

Noilhwosloin Univoisily-Dopailmonl of Managomonl \ Slialogy, Kollogg School of Managomonl, 2001

Shoiioan Ioao, Lvanslon, IL 60208-2001; jon-Liown^kollogg.noilhwosloin.oou. I am voiy gialoful foi lho
holp ano suppoil of John Moigan. I also lhank Jol Ioilol, Jin Li, Iaul Goilloi, Slovon 1aoolis, Sola
Villas-Loas, Iyan Kollogg ano numoious sominai pailicipanls foi lhoii holpful commonls.
1
1 IntroductIon
Iiopononls of inloinal compolilion conlono lhal wilhin-lim conlosls fuol omployoo oloils.
Inoooo, louinamonl-slylo compolilionswhoio lims iowaio iolalivo poifoimancoaio founo
in many conloxls, pilling woikois againsl oach olhoi foi lonuio, piomolion ano awaios.
1
Whilo common inluilion suggosls lhal iivaliy may oncouiago woikois lo oxoil moio oloil,
lhis may nol always Lo lho caso.
Lconomic lhooiy suggosls lhal lho Lonolls of louinamonl compolilion oopono ciilically
on lho oogioo lo which compolilois aio iolalivoly oqual in unooilying aLilily. Whon inoivio-
uals of giossly unoqual lalonls compolo, lho loss lalonloo may (oplimally) givo up whilo lho
high-aLilily woikoi coasls lo vicloiy. 1hal is, iolalivo poifoimanco schomos may falloi in lho
piosonco of a supoislai. Whilo an aovoiso supoislai olocl" is an inliiguing lhooiolical pos-
siLilily, is lhoio any ompiiical valioily lo lhis woiiy I losl lho simplo hypolhosisconsislonl
wilh lho oxlanl liloialuio on conlosls ano louinamonlslhal lho piosonco of a supoislai in a
iank-oiooi louinamonl can loao lo :J&J oloil fiom olhoi pailicipanls.
2,8
Iiofossional golf
louinamonls, whoio oloil iolalos iolalivoly oiioclly lo poifoimanco, piosonl an oppoilunily
lo oxamino ompiiically lho inluonco of a supoislai.
1his papoi usos oala fiom 1igoi Wooos ano lho IGA 1oui lo ioonlify lho aovoiso
inconlivo olocl of supoislais in louinamonls. 1ho oala incluoo iouno-Ly-iouno scoios foi
all playois in ovoiy IGA louinamonl fiom 1000 lo oaily-2010 ano holo-Ly-holo scoios foi
louinamonls fiom 2002 lo oaily-2010. I oslimalo lho impacl of lho supoislai`s piosonco
on lho scoios of olhoi golfois, lisl oxamining all iogulai ano majoi louinamonls ano lhon
oxploiling Wooos` unoxpocloo aLsoncos fiom lho loui in 2008 ano 2010. Iosulls aio ioLusl
lo sovoial spocilcalions. 1o my knowloogo, lhis is lho lisl papoi lo invosligalo lho impacl
of supoislais in iank-oiooi louinamonls.
1ho main iosulls of lho papoi aio:
1. 1ho piosonco of a supoislai in a louinamonl is associaloo wilh iooucoo poifoimanco
fiom olhoi compolilois. In gonoial, lho aovoiso supoislai olocl is laigoi foi highoi-
skilloo golfois iolalivo lo lowoi-skilloo playois
1
GL, 8M, Lloomingoalo`s, Iiocloi \ GamLlo, ILM, Digilal, Johnson \ Johnson, GM ano Howloll-
Iackaio all uso Lolwoon- ano wilhin-loam compolilion lo piovioo inconlivos foi qualily ano innovalion
(Maiino ano ZaLojnk, 2008; Lisonhaiol ano Gahmic, 2000).
2
I uso lho loim supoislai" in lho samo spiiil as Shoiwin Ioson in his 1081 papoi, 1ho Lconomics of
Supoislais". Ho oosciiLos lho Supoislai phonomonon as a conconlialion of oulpul among a fow inoiviouals;
I uso lho loim lo oosciiLo a oominanl playoi. 1hal is, a supoislai piovioos consislonlly supoiioi poifoimanco
iolalivo lo lho lolo of compolilois.
8
Somo managois havo noloo olhoi polonlial oownsioos lo inloinal compolilion, incluoing poicoplions of
lim woaknoss, lho ouplicalion of oloil, ano omployoo oisliaclion (Liikinshaw, 2001; Davonpoil ano Lock,
2000).
2
2. Iooucoo poifoimanco is nol alliiLulaLlo lo lho aooplion of iisky slialogios. Ilayois oo
nol appoai lo Lo going foi lho gioon" moio in lho piosonco of a supoislai. Moioovoi,
lho vaiianco of playois` holo-Ly-holo scoios in IGA louinamonls is nol slalislically
signilcanlly highoi whon Wooos is in lho lolo, iolalivo lo whon ho ooos nol pailicipalo.
8. Supoislais musl Lo supoi" lo cioalo aovoiso olocls: 1ho aovoiso supoislai olocl is
laigo in poiioos whon Wooos is pailiculaily succossful ano oisappoais ouiing poiioos
in which ho is poifoiming iolalivoly pooily on lho couiso.
Olhoi foaluios of louinamonls havo Loon oxploioo ompiiically in sovoial sollings. Knoo-
Loi ano 1huiman (1004) compaio louinamonl ano linoai paymonl schomos using oala fiom
a samplo of US Lioiloi piooucois. 1hoy oxamino lho impacl of piizos on poifoimanco lovol
ano vaiiaLilily ano, in conliasl wilh my lnoings, concluoo lhal loss-aLlo piooucois aoopl
iiskioi slialogios. Liiksson (1000) usos inousliy oala fiom Donmaik ano suggosls lhal wiooi
pay oispoision loaos lo gioaloi omployoo oloil. Sunoo (2008) ano Lallomano, Ilasman, ano
Iycx (2008) oxamino piofossional lonnis oala lo sluoy holoiogonoily in oliminalion louina-
monls. 1hoy lno lhal lho lowoi-iankoo playois lono lo unooipoifoim in unovon malchos.
Liown ano Minoi (2011) sluoy lho olocl of a sliong fuluio oppononl on cuiionl oloil
choico in malch-paii oliminalion louinamonls ano also losl lhoii lhooiolical piooiclions wilh
piofossional lonnis oala.
1ouinamonl lhooiy also has Loon oxaminoo in a laLoialoiy solling: Lull, Scholloi ano
Woigoll (1087) lno lhal oisaovanlagoo conloslanls piovioo moio oloil lhan piooicloo Ly
louinamonl lhooiy. Iolilical iacos can Lo fiamoo as louinamonls; Lovill (1004) usos lolo
oala on campaign oxponoiluio in US Houso oloclions ano lnos lhal polilical sponoing is
highosl in closo iacos.
Olhoi iosoaich has usoo oala fiom piofossional golf. LhionLoig ano Lognanno (1000a)
uso a suLsamplo of IGA louinamonls in 1084 lo show lhal laigoi piizos loao lo lowoi scoios,
a iosull I oo nol oLsoivo in my analysis. Whilo somo of lhoii spocilcalions conliol foi lho
aLilily of playois suiiounoing a compoliloi on lho lnal oay of play, lhoy oo nol oiscuss
how compolilois` skill holoiogonoily alocls poifoimanco. In anolhoi papoi, LhionLoig ano
Lognanno (1000L) uso oala fiom lho 1087 Luiopoan IGA 1oui ano lno again lhal highoi
piizo lovols iosull in lowoi scoios. Howovoi, Oiszag (1004) quoslions lho ioLuslnoss of lhoso
iosulls ano lnos lhal louinamonl piizos havo lilllo impacl on poifoimanco. Guiyan, Kiofl,
ano Nolowioigoo (2000) uso oala on ianoom pailnoi assignmonls in lho lisl lwo iounos
of IGA ovonls in 2002, 2008 ano 200 ano lno no ovioonco of pooi olocls. Connolly ano
Ionoloman (2008) oxamino lho poifoimanco of 28 playois fiom 1008 lo 2001 lo ioonlify lho
iolo of luck in piofossional wins. Iopo ano Schwoilzoi (2011) uso piociso pulling oala fiom
8
lho IGA 1oui lo sluoy lho piosonco of loss avoision in high-slakos compolilion.
1ho woik of Lazoai ano Ioson (1081) piovioos a founoalion foi unooislanoing lho incon-
livo olocls of louinamonls, whilo Iionooigasl (1000) suivoys lho ioconl liloialuio. Sovoial
sluoios, incluoing Gioon ano Slokoy (1088), NaloLul ano Sliglilz (1088), Dixil (1087), ano
Moloovanu ano Sola (2001) havo oxlonooo lho lhooiolical liloialuio on louinamonls, yol
nono has focusoo on lho impacl of a supoislai on louinamonl inconlivos.
1ho papoi is oiganizoo as follows: Fiisl, lo molivalo my ompiiical sluoy, I piosonl in
soclion 2 iosulls fiom lho conlosl liloialuio lhal highlighl lho impacl of playoi asymmoliios
on pailicipanl oloil. In Soclion 8, I oullino lho impoilanl foaluios of piofossional golf ano
oosciiLo lho IGA 1oui oala usoo in my analysis. I piosonl lho oconomoliic analysis ano
consiooi sovoial alloinalivo oxplanalions foi lho oLsoivoo aovoiso supoislai olocl. Soclion 4
concluoos Ly iofiaming lho iosulls in loims of lho oconomic signilcanco of lho poifoimanco
olocl foi piofossional golfois.
2 Contests vItL Heterogeneous IIayers
Iosulls in lho conlosl liloialuio capluio lho impacl of changos in playois` iolalivo aLililios on
oloil ano foim lho Lasis foi my ompiiical losls.
4
In pailiculai, ioconl woik has gonoializoo
lho impoifoclly-oisciiminaling 1ullock (1080) conlosl lo consiooi lho impacl of holoiogonoous
aLililios ano asymmoliic valualions on pailicipanls` oloil. Sloin (2002) piosonls a ionl-
sooking conlosl moool wilh : holoiogonoous pailicipanls compoling foi a singlo piizo, whilo
Szymanski ano Vallolli (200) consiooi lhioo-poison conlosls wilh mulliplo piizos. In lho
following soclion, I piosonl lho 1ullock-slylo conlosl fiamowoik ano highlighl lho iosulls of
Sloin (2002) ano Szymanski ano Vallolli (200). In aooilion, I piosonl a simplo numoiical
oxamplo of a mulliplo piizo conlosl wilh asymmoliic playois.
2.1 : Heterogeneous IIayers and One IrIze
Consiooi a conlosl whoio : holoiogonoous playois compolo foi piizo 1 Ly choosing oloil
lovol r
i
. Lol lho aLilily paiamoloi `
i
iolocl playoi i`s piioi iolalivo chanco of winning,
whoio `

... `
a
1. Lol oach playoi`s conlosl succoss funclion lako on a logil foim
so lhal a playoi`s pioLaLilily of winning lho conlosl is
j
i
=
A

4
Nilzan (1004) ano Koniao (2000) piovioo oxcollonl suivoys of conlosl mooolling.
4
Foi simplicily, I assumo lhal lho cosl of oloil is linoai. 1ho oxpocloo payol lo playoi i is
:
i
=
`
i
r
i

a
)
`
)
r
)
1 r
i
Using lho lisl-oiooi conoilion foi a iopiosonlalivo pailicipanl, Sloin (2002) piosonls lho
following
Jr
i
J`
)
=
(: 1) 11

`
i
`

1
2 (: 1) 1
:`
i

foi i = ,
whoio 1 = :

a
i

A

is lho haimonic moan of lho iolalivo aLilily moasuios.

Whon , = 1 ano i 1. wo can soo lhal
0a

0A

< 0 whon `
i
<
a1
a
.

1his inoqualily always

holos in lho lwo playoi casolhal is, in a lwo-playoi conlosl, lho piosonco of a supoislai
always loaos lo lowoi oquiliLiium oloil fiom lho olhoi playoi.
Whon : 2. lho inoqualily conoilion implios lhal lho supoislai will havo an aovoiso
inconlivo olocl on oloil of a playoi i = 1 whon lho supoislai is suLslanlially moio aLlo lhan
lhis compoliloi. 1his compaialivo slalic iosull suppoils lho main loslaLlo piooiclion of lho
cuiionl papoi: Incioasos in lho aLilily of lho mosl skilloo playoi loaos lo lowoi oquiliLiium
oloil fiom low-aLilily playois. Similai iosulls havo Loon piosonloo foi lwo-playoi conlosls
wilh gonoial ionl-sooking lochnology (Laik, 1004) ano a vaiiaLlo iango of ioluins lo scalo
paiamolois (Nli,1000).
2.2 Heterogeneous IIayers and AuItIIe IrIzes
1o consiooi asymmoliic conlosls wilh mulliplo piizos, I oxamino a conlosl whoio lhioo playois
compolo foi lwo piizos. Lol lho lolal piizo pool Lo 1 ano lol c

oonolo lho fiaclion of

lho lolal piizo awaiooo lo lho winnoi. 1ho playoi in socono-placo wins a piizo of (1 c) 1
ano lho playoi in lhiio-placo iocoivos 0. Consiooi a simplo asymmoliy whoio playoi 1 is
` 1 limos moio skilloo lhan lho olhoi lwo (ioonlical) playois. In conliasl, Szymanski ano
Vallolli (200) oloi a moool whoio playois oiloi in lhoii cosls of oloil; lhoii iosulls aio
similai ano aio oiscussoo Lolow.
1ho pioLaLilily lhal playoi i wins socono piizo is oqual lo lho sum of lho pioLaLililios
lhal oach of lho olhoi compolilois won lisl piizo, conoilional on playoi i nol having won
lho lisl piizo himsolf.
In a lwo-piizo ovonl, playoi 1`s oxpocloo payol iolocls lho pioLaLilily lhal ho wins lho

Sloin (2002) ooos nol oullino oxplicilly lhis conoilion. In his 1:..n

(p.884), Sloin slalos lhal

an incioaso in lho aLilily of any playoi will oocioaso lho oloil (oi oxponoiluio) of all olhoi playois.

lisl piizo, c1. ano lho pioLaLilily lhal ho wins lho socono piizo, (1 c) 1. insloao:
6
:

=
`r

`r

c (1 c)

`r

`r

1 r

Similaily, lho oxpocloo payols foi playois 2 ano 8 aio

:

=
r

`r

c (1 c)

`r

`r

1 r

=
r

`r

c (1 c)

`r

`r

1 r

Diloionlialing lho payol funclions ano oqualing lho lisl oiooi conoilions suggosls lhal
playois 2 ano 8 puisuo a common slialogy. Solving lho syslom yiolos an oquiliLiium in
which oach playoi maximizos his own payol, givon his oppononls` slialogios. 1o illuslialo
lho chango in oloil iosulling fiom a chango in lho playois` iolalivo aLililios ano lho puiso-
shaiing iulo, I solvo lho syslom numoiically.
Figuio 1 piosonls lhioo sols of numoiical solulions chaiacloiizing lho iolalionships Lo-
lwoon oloil, piizo oisliiLulion, ano iolalivo aLilily. Iospoclivoly, lho lhioo soiios oopicl
louinamonls whoio lho winnoi lakos all (c = 1) . 80/ of lho puiso is awaiooo lo lho winnoi
(c = 0.8), ano 60/ of lho puiso is awaiooo lo lho winnoi (c = 0.0).
In oach oxamplo in Figuio 1, lho oloils of playois 2 ano 8 (r

ano r

) ooclino as playoi
1`s skill aovanlago incioasos. 1hal is, lho oloils of lho iogulaily-skilloo playois fall as lho
supoislai Locomos moio skilloo.
In lho lguio, as lho iolalivo aLilily of lho sliongosl playoi incioasos, lho cuivo foi lho
conlosl wilh a singlo piizo (c = 1) oocioasos moio iapioly lhan lho cuivos foi lwo-piizo
sconaiios (c = 0.80 ano 0.0). 1hal is, lho aovoiso oloil olocl of incioasing lho supoislai`s
aLilily is oamponoo Ly lho oxislonco of a consolalion piizo. 1ho inluilion is sliaighlfoiwaio:
givon lho chanco lo win a socono-placo piizo, lho woakoi playois will oxoil moio oloil (iolalivo
lo lhoii oloil in lho singlo piizo caso) ovon if lhoy will almosl coilainly nol win lho lop piizo.
Fiom Figuio 1, ono can also nolo lho olocl of incioasing lho lisl piizo unooi oiloionl
lovols of playoi asymmoliy: Whon lho asymmoliy is small, lho woak playois` oloils aio
incioasing in lho sizo of lho lisl piizo; yol wilh a laigoi asymmoliy, lho woak playois` oloils
oocioaso as lho lisl piizo incioasos. Infoimally, as lho supoislai`s iolalivo aLilily impiovos,
lho iogulaily-skilloo playois shifl lhoii focus fiom lho sizo of lho lisl piizo lo lho sizo of lho
6
Allhough lho cuiionl moool is nol soquonlial, Szymanski ano Vallolli (200) suggosl lhis holpful inluilion
foi calculaling lho pioLaLilily lhal a playoi wins socono piizo: 1hink of lhis pioLaLilily as lho pioLaLilily
of winning lho lisl piizo in a socono conlosl fiom which lho winnoi of lho lisl piizo in lho full conlosl has
Loon oliminaloo..." (p. 470).
6
socono piizo. Szymanski ano Vallolli (200) piovioo a foimal piosonlalion of lhis inluilion
in lho pioof of lhoii 1:..n 2 (p. 474).
In lho following soclions, I oosciiLo lho oala ano ompiiical appioach usoo lo losl my main
ompiiical hypolhosis: 1ho piosonco of a supoislai compoliloi will loao lo lowoi oloil (ano,
lhoiofoio, poifoimanco) fiom iogulaily-skilloo playois in iank-oiooi louinamonls, iolalivo lo
playois` oloil whon lho supoislai is nol in lho compolilion.
3 TLe Iresence oI a Suerstar
Iiofossional golf olois a ioal-woilo laLoialoiy in which lo oxamino lho olocl of a supoislai
on his compolilois; lho pailicipanls aio piofossionals making ioal oocisions lhal impacl lhoii
lnancial succoss ano fuluio caiooi, lho compolilivo slakos aio signilcanl, ano lho oala aio
iich.
IGA 1oui golfois aio highly-liainoo piofossional alhlolos who oxoil consiooiaLlo of-
foil Lolh Lofoio ano ouiing compolilivo iounos. Lofoio ovonls, oloil is aLoul focusoo
piopaialionin lho sovoial oays loaoing up lo lho lisl iouno, a golfoi may chooso lo hil
Lalls on lho oiiving iango, play piaclico iounos, ano caiofully sluoy lho couiso. Iiopaialion
may Lo Lolh physically laxing ano coslly in loims of oppoilunily coslsin 2001, playois`
foos foi allonoing coipoialo oulings iango fiom $100,000 poi oay foi Davio Lovo III lo $1
million poi oay foi 1igoi Wooos.
7
Duiing compolilion, a playoi may lako oxlia caio lo
consiooi his lio, lho laigol, lho woalhoi conoilions ano his cluL soloclion. 1hoso pio-ovonl
ano mio-iouno aclivilios ioquiio consiooiaLlo oloilpiaclico ano palionco may Lo Lolh
physically ano monlally cosllyLul iosull in impiovoo poifoimanco. In facl, il is lho closo
iolalionship Lolwoon oloil ano poifoimanco lhal mako golf oala pailiculaily suilaLlo foi
lhis sluoy.
1ho oLjoclivo of golf is lo complolo oach holo wilh lho fowosl sliikos of lho Lall. Iai"
oosciiLos how lho couiso is oosignoo lo Lo playoo Ly an oxpoiioncoo golfoi. Ilayois aio
unooi" ano ovoi" pai if lhoy complolo a holo in fowoi oi moio sliokos lhan pai, iospoclivoly.
Iiofossional golf louinamonls lypically consisl of foui iounos (1huisoay lo Sunoay). Final
posilions aio assignoo accoioing lo playois` lolal scoios foi lho ovonl. A cul" is maoo afloi
lho socono iouno. In mosl louinamonls, only lho lop 70 golfois ano lhoso lioo foi 70
lh
posilion play lho lhiio ano fouilh iounos.
8,0
7
1hoso foos woio iopoiloo in USA 1ooay`s ailiclo Wooos` Iiosonco Iushos Appoaianco Foos Sky High"
puLlishoo May 18, 2001. Nolo lhal lho IGA 1oui oxplicilly piohiLils appoaianco foos in omcial IGA ovonls.
8
Somo ovonls uso a 10-slioko iulo lo ooloimino lho culfoi oxamplo, in lho US Opon, lho cul incluoos
lho low 60 scoiois (ano lios), ano any playoi wilhin 10 sliokos of lho loaooi.
0
Givon lho cul, Wooos` pailicipalion in an ovonl may moan lhal fowoi iogulai playois aovanco lo lho lnal
7
All playois who mako lho cul oain piizo monoy ano lhoso who miss lho cul iocoivo no
piizo. In lho caso of a lio foi lisl placo, aooilional playol holos ooloimino lho louinamonl
winnoi. Whilo puiso sizo oilois Ly louinamonl, lho piizo oisliiLulion is lxoo ano non-linoai
on lho IGA 1oui. 1ho lop 1 golfois oain appioximaloly 70/ of lho lolal puiso; louinamonl
winnois iocoivo 18/ of lho puiso, whilo socono lhiough lflh posilions oain 10.8, 6.8, 4.8,
ano 4/, iospoclivoly. 1ho golfoi in 70
lh
posilion iocoivos 0.2/ of lho puiso.
1ho piosonco of a supoislai, 1igoi Wooos, is a koy foaluio of piofossional golf ano ciilical
foi ioonlilcalion in my papoi. Wooos won his lisl IGA louinamonl wilhin wooks of luining
piofossional in 1006. Lolwoon 1006 ano 2006, ho collocloo 4 IGA wins incluoing 12 majoi
lillos ano failoo lo mako lho cul in only foui of lho 210 louinamonls in which ho compoloo.
Displaying iomaikaLlo consisloncy, ho oainoo lop-lhioo lnishos in 02 of lhoso ovonls ano
lop-10 lnishos in 182 ovonls. Wooos was lho IGA Ilayoi of lho Yoai oighl limos Lolwoon
1007 ano 2006. Ovoi lhoso yoais, ho was consislonl ano oominanlwhon Wooos playoo,
lhoio was a high pioLaLilily lhal ho woulo play voiy woll.
3.1 ICA Tour Data
I uso a panol oalasol of 260 IGA louinamonls fiom 1000 lo 2006 in my main analysis ano
also piosonl aooilional iosulls using oala fiom 2007 lo 2010.
10
Whilo pasl iolaloo woik
has iolioo on oala fiom solocloo louinamonls fiom a singlo soason (o.g. LhionLoig ano
Lognanno 1000a,L ano Oiszag 1004), mulli-yoai, playoi-lovol oala allows mo lo ioonlify
Lolwoon- ano wilhin-louinamonl changos whilo conliolling foi playoi-spocilc vaiialion. 1ho
panol naluio of lho oala iopiosonls a slionglh of lho cuiionl analysissinco golf couisos
havo uniquo foaluios lhal mako cioss-couiso compaiison challonging, I can oxamino playois`
poifoimancos on lho samo couiso ovoi many yoais.
Iouno-lovols scoios aio availaLlo foi all playois in all louinamonls fiom 1000 lo 2010,
whilo holo-Ly-holo scoios aio availaLlo fiom 2002 lo 2010.
11
Fiom lho oala, I can ioonlify
playois who maoo oi failoo lo mako lho cul, wilhoiowoi woio oisqualiloo. Woalhoi oala fiom
lho Nalional Climalic Dala Conloi of lho Nalional Ocoanic ano Almosphoiic Aominislialions
iounos. Holoing playoi ano louinamonl chaiacloiislics lxoo, compolilion Lolwoon fowoi playois shoulo loao
lo incioasoo oloil ano impiovoo poifoimanco. 1his mochanical olocl woiks againsl lho piooicloo supoislai
olocl ano counloi lo whal I oLsoivo in lho oala.
10
Dala fiom 04 small-lolo ano alloinalo louinamonls aio omilloo sinco lhoy solocl only lowoi oi highoi
skills playois, iospoclivoly.
11
1ouinamonl scoios woio galhoioo fiom lho IGA 1OUI`s Shollink oala, GolfWook magazino`s woLsilo
(www.golfwook.com) ano 1ho Golf Channol (www.lhogolfchannol.com). Aooilional golf couiso infoimalion
was collocloo fiom lho Golf Couiso Supoiinlonoonls Associalion of Amoiica woLsilo (www.gcsaa.oig). Ilayoi
oala woio galhoioo fiom lho IGA 1OUI woLsilo (www.pgaloui.com).
8
woio malchoo lo playois` scoios.
12
1o conliol foi ciowo sizo, louinamonl populaiily, ano lho
inlonsily of mooia covoiago, I oLlainoo viowoiship oala foi all majoi lolovision nolwoiks, as
woll as somo IGA 1oui lickol salos oslimalos.
I also malchoo playois` scoios lo monlhly avoiago Omcial Woilo Golf Iankings (OWGI),
which moasuio lho lop 200 piofossional golfois` iolalivo qualily.
18
Golfois accumulalo OWGI
poinls Lasoo on lhoii lnishing posilions ano lho lolo slionglh in piofossional louinamonls
(US ano inloinalional) in lho piovious lwo yoais, ano lho poinls aio limo-woighloo. 1ho
mosl poinls aio awaiooo foi lop lnishois in lho Majoi louinamonls, followoo Ly oimcull
IGA 1oui ovonls; ovonls on lowoi-slalus inloinalional louis oain lho smallosl numLoi of
poinls. Iankings aio simply lho iank-oiooi of playois Ly lhoii accumulaloo poinls.
Figuio 2 piosonls lho moan louinamonl scoio iolalivo lo pai foi high-iankoo, low-iankoo,
ano uniankoo golfois who maoo lho cul in IGA 1oui ovonls Lolwoon 1000 ano 2006.
14
In
all yoais, moan scoios aio Lolow 0 (-n|& < 0.01), as ovon avoiago uniankoo IGA 1oui
playois posl scoios lhal aio Lolloi lhan pai. Scoios oxhiLil anolhoi consislonl palloinlop-
iankoo playois` scoios aio signilcanlly Lolloi (lowoi) lhan uniankoo playois` scoios in ovoiy
poiioo (-n|& < 0.01). 1ho supoislai play of 1igoi Wooos is also ovioonl in Figuio 2; his
scoios aio always signilcanlly lowoi lhan lho moan scoios of olhoi golfois (-n|&<0.01).
3.2 IerIornance VItL and VItLout tLe Suerstar
My main ompiiical analysis oxaminos Wooos`s impacl on lho poifoimanco of olhoi golfois on
lho IGAloui. 1hooiy piosonloo in soclion 2 suggosls lhal lho piosonco of a supoislai iooucos
olhoi compolilois` oloils, ano lhis shoulo loao lo woiso poifoimanco. Simplo compaiisons of
moan scoios of golfois in lho piosonco ano aLsonco of a supoislai piovioo a suggoslivo slail.
Figuio 8 piosonls lho avoiago scoio iolalivo lo pai of all playois in ovonls acioss limo fiom
1000 lo 2006, oxcluoing Wooos`s scoios. Fiom lho lguio, wo can oLsoivo lhal scoios fiom
many of lho ovonls wilh Wooos appoai suLslanlially highoi (woiso) lhan scoios fiom ovonls
in which ho oio nol pailicipalo. Nolo lhal whilo lhoso iaw oala may also iolocl oiloioncos in
woalhoi conoilions, couisos, puiso sizos, ano louinamonl chaiacloiislics, Figuio 8 molivalos
lho ioonlilcalion slialogy foi lhis papoi. Conliolling foi ovonl-spocilc olocls ano inoivioual
12
Locauso nol all ovonl localions aio NOAA woalhoi slalion silos, louinamonls aio malchoo lo lho clososl
NOAA silo. 1ho clososl silo was solocloo Ly hano lo onsuio googiaphic similaiilios. Foi oxamplo, a coaslal
golf couiso was malchoo wilh lho clososl coaslal woalhoi slalion.
18
OWGI oala woio galhoioo fiom www.omcialwoilogolfianking.com.
14
In 2007, lho IGA 1oui inliooucoo lho Foo Lx Cup, a soason-long conlosl in which playois accumulalo
poinls Lasoo on lhoii poifoimanco in iogulai 1oui ovonls. 1ho lop lvo lnishois in lho Foo Lx Cup oain
Lolwoon $8 million ano $10 million in lax-oofoiioo ioliiomonl funos. Finishois Lolwoon 12lh ano 10lh
posilion iocoivo $82,000. Sinco lho inlioouclion of lho Foo Lx Cup may havo changoo playois` inconlivos in
coilain ovonls, I focus lho Lulk of my analysis on lho yoais Lofoio 2007.
0
playoi holoiogonoilios, lho ompiiical analysis in lho following soclions losl wholhoi scoios in
lho piosonco of lho supoislai aio highoi lhan scoios whon Wooos is nol in lho lolo.
Figuio 4 piosonls a summaiy of lho oiloionco Lolwoon avoiago scoios iolalivo lo pai foi
louinamonls in which Wooos oio ano oio nol pailicipalo. Sinco playois vaiy in loims of
aLilily, lho oiloionco is piosonloo sopaialoly foi iankoo ano uniankoo playois Ly yoai. 1-
losls iojocl lho null hypolhosos lhal playois` scoios aio oqual wilh ano wilhoul lho supoislai
foi all yoais oxcopl 2006 (-n|& < 0.0).
1
1aLlo 1 piosonls summaiy slalislics foi oiloionl holo-lovol scoios in iounos fiom 2002
lo 2006. On avoiago, golfois havo slighlly fowoi oaglos (2 sliokos unooi pai) poi iouno in
louinamonls wilh Wooos, iolalivo lo whon lhoy aio nol compoling wilh lho supoislai; a
l-losl iojocls lho oqualily of moans al a -n|& of 0.06. Howovoi, playois posl moio Logoys
(1 slioko ovoi pai) ano oouLlo-Logoys (2 sliokos ovoi pai) whon lho supoislai is piosonllho
oiloioncos aio small in magniluoo, Lul aio slalislically signilcanlly oiloionl fiom zoio al
-n|& of 0.07 ano 0.04, iospoclivoly. 1hoso oala show lhal moio high scoios ano fowoi
low scoios aio posloo in louinamonls wilh Wooos, iolalivo lo whon ho ooos nol compolo.
Wooos`s consisloncy ano oominanco imply lhal olhoi playois aio compoling ovoi a smalloi
(iosioual) puiso in louinamonls lhal ho onlois. Sinco lho oxpocloo piizo is a koy ooloiminanl
of oquiliLiium oloil, in piinciplo, ono oughl lo soo lho samo lovol of poifoimanco fiom
compolilois in louinamonls wilh a similai, smalloi puiso whoio Wooos ooos nol pailicipalo.
1hal is, ono losl of conlosl lhooiy woulo Lo lo malch louinamonls Ly iosioual puiso lo
soo if lhoio aio poifoimanco oiloioncos acioss louinamonls wilh ano wilhoul Wooos. 1ho
lhooiy piooicls lhal wo shoulo oLsoivo lilllo oi no oiloionco in poifoimanco. Of couiso,
sinco louinamonls aio malchoo sololy Ly puiso sizo, lhis piooiclion ignoios olhoi polonlial
inluoncos lhal also alocl scoios, such as woalhoi ano couiso conoilions.
1o poifoim lhis simplo losl, I compulo Wooos`s oxpocloo piizo foi a givon ovonl fiom
his mooian lnishing iank in lhal louinamonl ano compulo lho iosioual puiso foi lho olhoi
compolilois.
16
I lhon malchoo lhoso ovonls lo louinamonls in which Wooos oio nol com-
polo. 1o avoio compaiisons acioss suLslanlially oiloionl soasons, I ioquiioo malchos lo
occui wilhin lhioo monlhs of oach olhoi. I oliminaloo all paiis whoio lho oiloionco in lho
iosioual ano aclual puiso sizos was gioaloi lhan $100,000.
17
Foi oxamplo, Lasoo on his pasl
1
Non-paiamoliic Wilcoxon signoo-iank losls yiolo ioonlical iosulls. In gonoial, lho oisliiLulions of lho
scoios of olhoi golfois aio slalislically oiloionl whon Wooos pailicipalos in a louinamonl iolalivo lo whon
ho ooos nol.
16
1o oslaLlish ioasonaLlo oslimalos of Wooos` oxpocloo poifoimanco, I incluooo only lhoso ovonls in which
Wooos playoo al loasl foui limos in lho pasl.
17
1o avoio puiso oiloioncos Liasing lho compaiison lowaios woiso poifoimanco wilh lho supoislai, I
ioquiioo any oiloionco in puiso sizo lo Lo ouo lo a laigoi iosioual puiso in ovonls wilh Wooos. I also
malchoo on louinamonl lypo (i.o. majoi vs. iogulai).
10
poifoimanco in lho ovonl, Wooos hao an oxpocloo lnish of fouilh placo in lho 200 Wa-
chovia Championship, loaving a iosioual puiso of $,800,67. I malchoo lhis ovonl wilh lho
200 Laiclays Classic wilh a lolal puiso of $,772,6. Figuio compaios lho oisliiLulion
of playois` louinamonl scoios Lolwoon lhoso lwo ovonlsinoooo, lhoso oisliiLulions aio nol
slalislically oiloionl.
18
1his piocoouio yiolooo 2 plausiLlo malchos. In oach caso, I compuloo l-slalislics ano
Wilcoxon iank-sum losls of louinamonl scoios. In 16 of lho 2 compaiisons, playois` poi-
foimancos woio signilcanlly woiso whon Wooos was piosonl. I coulo nol iojocl lho null
hypolhosis lhal playois` scoios woio oqual in foui casos. 1hoso simplo compaiisons suggosl
lhal, ovon conoilional on having an oqual iosioual puiso, an avoiago compoliloi may play
woiso in lho piosonco of a supoislai.
Whilo lhooiy woulo suggosl lhal fow (if any) of lho malchos shoulo Lo slalislically
iomaikaLlo, lhoso compaiisons oo nol conliol foi oiloionl lolos of compolilois, woalhoi
conoilions, ano couiso-spocilc olocls. Inoooo, lho moan magniluoo of lho oiloioncos is 2.8
sliokosmuch highoi lhan ono mighl oxpoclsuggosling lhal olhoi foaluios of louinamonls
ano golf couisos oosoivo pailiculai allonlion. 1his inilial losl molivalos a moio oolailoo
iogiossion appioach, whoio I can accounl foi couiso- ano playoi-spocilc holoiogonoilios,
woalhoi ano lho compolilivonoss of lho lolo.
3.3 EcononetrIc SecIhcatIon
1ho hypolhosis oullinoo in soclion 2 suggosls lho following inilial oconomoliic spocilcalion:
:t:o/c:
i)
= ,

:tc:
)
H1c:/cd
i
,

:tc:
)
11c:/cd
i
,

:tc:
)
l1c:/cd
i
(1)
c

H1c:/cd
i
c

11c:/cd
i

A
i

1
)

i)
whoio :t:o/c:
i)
is lho scoio, in loims of sliokos aLovo oi Lolow pai, foi playoi i in louinamonl
,, :tc:
)
is a oummy vaiiaLlo lhal oquals 1 whon lho supoislai is piosonl in lho louinamonl,
H1c:/cd
i
is a oummy vaiiaLlo inoicaling lhal lho playoi is iankoo in lho lop 20 Ly lho
OWGI, 11c:/cd
i
is a oummy vaiiaLlo inoicaling lhal lho playoi is iankoo 21 lo 200 Ly
lho OWGI, ano l1c:/cd
i
is a oummy vaiiaLlo inoicaling lhal lho playoi is uniankoo (oi
iankoo aLovo 200) al lho limo of lho ovonl. In aooilion, I incluoo A
i
, a maliix of playoi-
couiso lxoo olocls lhal capluio inoivioual playoi`s couiso-spocilc holoiogonoilios, ano 1
)
, a
18
Using a lwo-samplo Kolmogoiov-Smiinov losl, I oo nol iojocl lho null of oqualily of oisliiLulions (-
n|& = 0.77). Similaily, using a l-losl ano Wilcoxon iank-sum losl, I oo nol iojocl lho null of oqual moans
(-n|& ano , iospoclivoly).
11
maliix of ovonl-spocilc conliols oosciiLoo Lolow.
10
Finally,
i)
is lho oiioi loim. I oslimalo
lho oqualion using OLS wilh a ioLusl vaiianco oslimaloi lhal is clusloioo Ly playoi-yoai lo
allow foi coiiolalion acioss an inoivioual golfoi`s louinamonls in a givon yoai.
20
Locauso lho
vaiiaLlo of pailiculai inloiosl is lho piosonco of lho supoislai, Wooos`s scoios aio omilloo
fiom lho iogiossions.
1ho iofoionco gioup in all iogiossions is composoo of uniankoo playois compoling in a
louinamonl whoio Wooos is nol piosonl. 1ho coomcionls on lho supoislai oummy inloiac-
lions wilh iank calogoiios (,

. ,

ano ,

) capluio lho olocl of Wooos`s piosonco on playois`

scoios. In lho iopoiloo iosulls, I piosonl lhoso lolal" supoislai olocls Ly playoi lypos.
1ho maliix of ovonl conliols, A
)
, incluoos lho following vaiiaLlos:
Aajor Dunny - I uso an inoicaloi foi lho foui majoi louinamonls (US Opon, Liilish
Opon, IGA Championship ano lho Maslois) which aio piosligious, alliacl a sliong lolo of
playois ano aio noloiiously challonging.
21
Tenerature and VInd Seed - I uso lho avoiago oaily lompoialuio (

F) ano io-
sullanl wino spooo (lonlhs of milohoui) lo conliol foi lho woalhoi conoilions ouiing loui-
namonls. In iopoiloo spocilcalions, I uso uppoi ano lowoi lompoialuio quaililo oummy
vaiiaLlos lo inoicalo lompoialuios lhal aio hol (aLovo 80

F) ano voiy colo (Lolow 62

F).
Lagged HaInIaII - Inchos of iain accumulaloo ovoi lho lhioo oays Lofoio lho ovonl also
conliols foi playing conoilions. Iain may mako lho couiso oasioi, sinco moisl gioons aio sofl,
slow ano foigiving.
TotaI Iurse - Iuiso vaiiaLlos iolocl louinamonls` monolaiy inconlivos. In all iopoiloo
spocilcalions, I incluoo lho lolal puiso in lhousanos of oollais oolaloo Ly lho monlhly
Consumoi Iiico Inoox ano lho squaio of lho puiso valuo.
FIeId QuaIIty - 1ho compolilivonoss of lho lolo of playois is pioxioo Ly lho avoiago
OWGI iank poinls of lho pailicipanls (oxcluoing Wooos). Foi oach playoi, I calculalo lhis
10
Of couiso, playoi-couiso lxoo olocls capluio lnoi holoiogonoilios lhan couiso-lovol lxoo olocls. Slopo"
is anolhoi coaiso moasuio of couiso oimcully. 1ho slopo ialings of many 1oui couisos aio consoioo al lho
maximum. Whilo lho USGA slopo ialing may iopiosonl couiso oimcully ouiing non-piofossional play, lho
ialing is nol inoicalivo of 1oui ovonl oimcully.
20
Concoins aLoul playoi-lovol coiiolalion iolocl lho inoivioual naluio of lho aclivily ano lho aigumonl
lhal somo playois may Lo pailiculaily alocloo Ly lho piosonco of lho supoislai. Ilayoi-yoai cluslois accounl
foi lho coiiolalion of a playoi`s aLilily wilhin a soason ano coiiolalion Lolwoon oLsoivalions fiom lho samo
playoi Loing iopoalooly lioaloo" Ly lho Wooos`s piosonco in lho samo yoai. Slanoaio oiiois aio slighlly
laigoi whon I clusloi Ly playoi, Lul piosonl lho samo palloin of slalislical signilcanco.
Sinco golfois` poifoimancos may Lo coiiolaloo wilhin a louinamonl, I also consiooi clusloiing Ly ovonl.
1ho slanoaio oiiois on all coomcionls aio highoi lhan whon clusloiing Ly playoi-yoai, Lul loao lo a similai
palloin of slalislical signilcanco. 1ho oxcoplion is iogiossion 2.8 whoio lho coomcionl on lho olocl foi
playois iankoo 21

lo 200

is nol slalislically signilcanl. 1hoso iosulls aio nol iopoiloo.

21
An inoicaloi foi Woilo Golf Championship ovonls, pail of a soiios of louinamonls lhal alliacl playois
fiom lho IGA, Luiopoan ano Japan Golf 1ouis, is aLsoiLoo Ly lho playoi-couiso lxoo olocls.
12
avoiago oxcluoing his own conliiLulion lo lho slionglh of lho lolo.
22
Soclion 8.1 piovioos
oolails on lho OWGI.
YIeversLI - I uso oaily housoholo lolovision viowoiship oala galhoioo Ly 1ho Niolson
Company lo pioxy foi lho inlonsily of fan- ano mooia-iolaloo allonlion al ovonls. 1ho oala
incluoo oslimalos foi lho numLoi of aoull viowois of louinamonl covoiago on majoi lolovision
nolwoiks. If a louinamonl has Loon shown on sovoial nolwoiks, I aggiogalo lho viowoiship
lguios lo lolal numLoi of housoholos viowing lho covoiago. In iouno-lovol analysos, I uso
oaily housoholo viowing slalislics. Foi louinamonl-lovol iogiossions, I fuilhoi aggiogalo lho
oala lo iolocl lho lolal numLoi of viowing housoholos acioss lho onliio ovonl. Coaiso IGA
1oui lickol salos oala aio availaLlo only foi 2000; howovoi, allonoanco appoais posilivoly
ano signilcanlly coiiolaloo wilh louinamonls` lolal lolovision viowoiship.
1ho sol of conliols incluooo in lho main spocilcalion aims lo capluio inoivioual-, couiso-,
ano ovonl-spocilc vaiialion lhal coulo alocl playois` poifoimancos, ano lhoy allow mo lo
isolalo lho impacl of lho supoislai compoliloi. Foi oxamplo, lhoio aio signilcanl couiso
oosign holoiogonoilios on lho louiyol, oiloioncos in lho oimcully of spocilc couisos aio
capluioo Ly lho playoi-couiso oummios. Moioovoi, if a spocilc golfoi plays iomaikaLly
Lolloi (oi woiso) on a pailiculai couiso, lhon lho playoi-couiso oummios also capluio lhoso
holoiogonoilios. If inlonso mooia allonlion impiovos (oi huils) playois` poifoimancos, lhon
lho lolovision viowoi conliols shoulo capluio lhoso olocls. Vaiialion in Wooos` schooulo
allows mo lo ioonlify his impacl on olhoi playois` poifoimanco; ho oio nol always pailicipalo
in lho samo ovonls on lho samo couisos oach yoai. In soclion 8., I oxploil sovoial unoxpocloo
changos in his loui schooulo.
In shoil, lho oconomoliic spocilcalion usoo in lho following analysis allows mo lo answoi
lho quoslion: Conliolling foi woalhoi conoilions, lho compolilivonoss of lho lolo, lho numLoi
of spoclalois, ano lho sizo of lho louinamonl piizo, how ooos playoi i`s scoio on couiso ,
chango in lho piosonco oi aLsonco of a supoislai compoliloi
3.4 Tournanents Iron 1999 to 2006
Sinco playois mako ciilical oloil-iolaloo oocisions piioi lo lho slail of ovonls, ono mighl
oxpocl any olocl of a supoislai in lho louinamonl lolo lo appoai in lho lisl iouno. 1ho
lisl lwo columns of 1aLlo 2 iopoil iosulls using playois` lisl-iouno scoios in iogulai ano
majoi IGA louinamonlsLolwoon 140 ano 170 golfois slail in oach ovonl. Appioximaloly
half of any louinamonl lolo makos lho cul afloi lho socono iouno.
In lho lisl iouno, lho poifoimanco of lop-iankoo playois appoais alocloo Ly lho su-
22
1his aojuslmonl iolocls lho facl lhal a playoi facos a sol of oppononls lhal oxcluoos himsolf.
18
poislai. Foi majoi ano iogulai ovonls, lop golfois` lisl-iouno scoios aio 0.6 sliokos highoi
whon Wooos is in lho lolo, iolalivo lo whon ho is nol. Lxamining only iogulai ovonls, lho
supoislai olocl is 0.4 sliokos foi lho lisl iouno. 1ho magniluoo of lho olocl is suLslan-
lial, pailiculaily whon ono consioois lhal an avoiago of 2 (ano as many as 8) playois shaio
lisl placo afloi lho lisl iouno of louinamonl play. Moioovoi, accounling foi lios, lho lop
lwo lisl-iouno scoios in a louinamonl oiloi Ly an avoiago of only 0.8 sliokos. Nolo lhal
uniankoo playois` scoios aio nol signilcanlly oiloionl whon Wooos pailicipalos. 1his non-
iosull aligns wilh lho inluilion lhal playois who aio low in lho oisliiLulion of iolalivo skill
oi who oxpocl lo lnish in lho noaily-lal poilion of lho louinamonl piizo oisliiLulion may
nol Lo aovoisoly alocloo Ly a lop compoliloi. Foi oxamplo, lho oiloionco Lolwoon 40
lh
ano
41
sl
placo piizos in an avoiago iogulai louinamonl is loss lhan $1000; lhus, a ono-posilion
shifl in lho oisliiLulion has lilllo maiginal impacl on playois` poifoimancos.
Iogiossions 2.8 ano 2.4 iopoil iosulls fiom playois who maoo lho cul in IGA 1oui ovonls
in iogulai ano majoi ovonls. Iocall lhal golfois who mako lho cul play all louinamonl iounos
ano aio guaianlooo a cash piizo. Lxamining majoi ano iogulai ovonls, lho louinamonl scoios
of iankoo playois aio signilcanlly highoi whon Wooos is piosonloslimalos suggosl lhal lho
olocl is Lolwoon 1.8 ano 0.7 sliokos, ooponoing on playoi iank. Using only iogulai ovonls,
lho supoislai olocl foi lop-20 playois is posilivo Lul nol slalislically signilcanl. In gonoial,
howovoi, lho sizo of lho supoislai olocl is suLslanlial foi gooo IGA 1oui golfoison avoiago,
loss lhan lwo sliokos sopaialo 1
sl
ano 2
no
placo in IGA louinamonls.
1ho supoislai olocl is nol sonsilivo lo lho spocilcalion of pailiculai conliol vaiiaLlos.
Allhough nol iopoiloo, lho oslimalos aio ioLusl acioss alloinalivo spocilcalions of lho puiso
ano lompoialuio moasuios, incluoing linoai ano quaoialic loims.
28
3.5 Voods`s \nexected ALsences
Concoins aLoul non-ianoom pailicipalion oocisions may complicalo lho ioonlilcalion of
lho supoislai olocl in lho poifoimanco oala of piofossional golfois. Ono mighl wonooi
wholhoi Wooos plays only lho mosl oimcull couisos oi if pailiculaily lalonloo playois avoio
louinamonls whoio Wooos is in lho lolo. If oilhoi claim woio liuo, a simplo compaiison of
scoios wilh ano wilhoul Wooos coulo Lo misloaoing.
28
Allhough coomcionls aio nol iopoiloo ouo lo spaco consliainls, highoi puisos aclually appoai lo inouco
slighlly highoi scoiosiaising lho puiso Ly $100,000 is associaloo wilh 0.04 incioaso in lisl-iouno scoio.
Whilo lhis iosull is counloi lo lho lnoings in LhionLoig ano Lognanno (1000a,L), Oiszag (1004) concluoos
lhal changos in louinamonl piizo monoy oio nol signilcanlly alocl golfois` scoios. Ono plausiLlo oxplanalion
foi lho cuiionl iosull is lhal lho puiso vaiiaLlo is capluiing unmoasuioo changos in couiso oimcully. 1ho
conliols foi lho qualily of lho lolo aio nogalivo foi lho iogiossions in 1aLlo 2, suggosling lhal sliongoi lolos
may loao lo lowoi scoios.
14
In a laLoialoiy oxpoiimonl, olhoiwiso homogonoous playois coulo Lo assignoo puLlicly-
known aLilily lovols. In lho lioalmonl iounos, ono playoi coulo Lo ianoomly assignoo iola-
livoly high aLilily, ano lho olocl of his piosonco coulo Lo moasuioo Ly changos lo lho oloil
of olhoi playois. In lho iooal lolo oxpoiimonl on lho IGA 1oui, golfois woulo commil lo
lhoii playing schooulos al lho slail of oach yoai ano Wooos woulo compolo unoxpoclooly
al ianoomly-ooloiminoo ovonls. His cuiionl aLilily woulo Lo puLlic knowloogo ano olhoi
compolilois woulo nol Lo allowoo lo aojusl lhoii playing schooulos oi long-iun liaining in
iosponso lo Wooos` appoaiancos. Inoooo, in lhis oxpoiimonl, il woulo Lo as lhough Wooos
foll fiom lho sky lo compolo.
Of couiso, Lolh of lhoso sconaiios havo slionglhs ano suLslanlial oiawLacks: LaLoialoiy
oxpoiimonls aio foasiLlo lo conoucl, Lul may nol olicil naluial Lohavioi fiom compolilois.
In conliasl, a mulli-yoai lolo oxpoiimonl mighl pioouco ioalislic iosullsalhlolos woulo
compolo foi ioal piizosLul an oxpoiimonl of lhis scalo woulo Lo impossiLlo lo conoucl.
In lhis soclion, I oosciiLo a foasiLlo ompiiical slialogy lhal oxploils sovoial unanlicipaloo
changos in Wooos`s playing schooulo. Mosl simply, I compaio a playoi`s poifoimanco in
a louinamonl whoio Wooos was oxpocloo lo Lul oio nol aclually play wilh lho playoi`s
poifoimanco in aojaconl yoais whoio Wooos was oxpocloo lo ano aclually oio compolo.
In lhoso sconaiios, playois piopaioo similaily in lho monlhs loaoing up lo lho compolilivo
soason, Lul facoo a oiloionl compolilivo onviionmonl al lho slail of lho ovonls. Givon lho
liming of announcomonls aLoul Wooos`s aLsoncos, il is ioasonaLlo lo oxpocl lhal playois
coulo nol aojusl lho inlonsily of lhoii long-loim liaining piogiams, Lul coulo aojusl lho
inlonsily of lho piopaialion aclivilios foi any givon louinamonl.
Wooos`s playing soason has Loon signilcanlly inloiiuploo on sovoial occasions, loaoing
lo his unoxpocloo aLsonco fiom compolilion:
Knee Surgery: In Juno 2008, Wooos announcoo lhal ho woulo miss lho iomainooi
of lho soason lo unooigo knoo suigoiy. Afloi lho Masloi`s louinamonl in Apiil 2008,
Wooos hao schoouloo ailhioscopic knoo suigoiy. Ho ioluinoo lo play mio-Juno, win-
ning lho US Opon. 1wo oays afloi his vicloiy, ho announcoo lhal ho woulo unooigo
moio oxlonsivo suigoiy lo iopaii his knoo ano log. Wooos`s visiLlo physical ioaclion lo
his knoo pain ouiing lho US Opon highlighls lho unoxpocloo naluio of lhis wilhoiawal.
Duiing his mooical loavo, ho missoo oighl ovonls in which ho hao iogulaily pailicipaloo
in piovious yoais; lhioo iogulai ovonls ano sovoial lalo-soason playol ovonls.
IersonaI DIcuItIes: In NovomLoi 2000, Wooos announcoo an inoolnilo aLsonco
fiom golf lo manago issuos in his poisonal lifo. 1his woll-puLlicizoo wilhoiawal was
unanlicipaloomooia iopoils suggosloo lhal fow pooplo, if any, woulo havo Loon aLlo
1
lo foiocasl lho soiios of ovonls lhal loo lo Wooos`s announcomonl. Wooos ioluinoo
lo play in lho Masloi`s louinamonl in Apiil 2010. Duiing lhis Lioak, Wooos missoo
a Woilo Golf Championship ovonl ano lho Ainolo Ialmoi Invilalional louinamonl in
which ho hao pailicipaloo in piovious yoais.
1hoso unoxpocloo ovonls piovioo an oppoilunily lo oxamino lho ioLuslnoss of lho aovoiso
supoislai olocl wilhoul soloclion Lias.
24
1aLlo 8 iopoils lho scoios in lho samo louinamonls wilh ano wilhoul Wooos ovoi lho
poiioos of inloiosl; lho moan scoios laLoloo Wilh Wooos" consiooi ovonls in which ho
aclually pailicipaloo, whilo lho valuos laLoloo Wilhoul Wooos" iolocl scoios fiom lhoso
samo ovonls whon Wooos was unoxpoclooly aLsonl. Whon Wooos unooiwonl suigoiy in
2008, moan scoios foi lop-iankoo playois woio appioximaloly 4.6 sliokos Lolloi lhan whon
Wooos playoo (-n|& < 0.01). Scoios foi lowoi-iankoo ano uniankoo playois also impiovoo
Ly .8 ano 8.0 sliokos, iospoclivoly (-n|& = 0.01). Duiing Wooos` unoxpocloo aLsonco in
oaily-2010, Lolh high-, low- ano uniankoo playois hao signilcanlly Lolloi moan scoios (-
n|&< 0.1, 0.01, ano 0.0, iospoclivoly).
2
1hoso summaiy slalislics aio suggoslivomoan
scoios iovoal a laigo aovoiso supoislai olocl in lhoso poiioos of inloiosl.
1aLlo 4 iopoils lho iosulls foi lho ovonl sluoios foi lisl-iouno (iogiossions 4.1 ano 4.8)
ano louinamonl (iogiossions 4.2 ano 4.4) scoios, conliolling foi playoi-, couiso- ano ovonl-
spocilc vaiialion. Foi Wooos`s aLsonco ouo lo injuiy, I incluoo oala fiom lhioo yoais (Lofoio,
ouiing ano afloi lho ovonl). Sinco lalo-soason ovonls incluoo playol ano non-slanoaio ovonls,
I oxamino only iogulai louinamonls ano Woilo Golf Championships fiom July lo SoplomLoi.
Foi lho socono analysis, I incluoo oala fiom Januaiy lo Maich of lho 2000 ano 2010 soasons.
Allhough lho oslimaloo coomcionls aio posilivo, I lno no slalislically signilcanl aovoiso
supoislai olocl on golfois` lisl-iouno poifoimanco in lho winoow aiouno Wooos`s knoo
suigoiy. Howovoi, compolilois` louinamonl scoios aio signilcanlly woiso. As oosciiLoo
al lho Loginning of Soclion 8, playois faco oloil-iolaloo oocisions Lofoio ovonls, ouiing
iounos, ano Lolwoon louinamonl oays. If playois piopaio oiloionlly whon lhoy oxpocl lo
faco a supoislai, lhon wo mighl oxpocl ovioonco of a poifoimanco olocl oaily in lho ovonl.
Howovoi, if playois piopaioo foi lhoso louinamonls oxpocling Wooos lo Lo in lho lolo, lhon a
suLslanlial poilion of lhoii oloil may havo alioaoy Loon oxponooolhis woulo Lias lho lisl-
24
In May 2006, Wooos lofl lho loui foi lhioo monlhs afloi lho ooalh of his falhoi afloi a long illnoss.
Wooos ano sovoial of his closo fiionos on lho 1oui wilhoiow immooialoly fiom lho Wachovia Championship
in Chailollo, N.C. Ho missoo lhioo ovonls. Allhough fow coulo havo anlicipaloo lho oxacl liming of lhis
ovonl, wioospioao mooia iopoil suggosloo a iapio ano sovoio ooclino in Wooos`s falhoi`s hoallh in lho lwo
monlhs piioi lo his ooalh. I can ioonlify no slalislically signilcanl impiovomonl (oi ooclino) in Wooos`s
compolilois` poifoimancos ouiing lhis aLsonco.
2
Diloioncos in moan scoios fiom ovonls in which Wooos playoo ano moan scoios fiom all ovonls in which
ho oio nol pailicipalo aio similai in magniluoo ano slalislical signilcanco.
16
iouno olocl lowaios 0. Coomcionls in iogiossions 4.1 ano 4.2 suggosl lhal, in somo casos, lho
oLsoivaLlo oulcomo of lho aovoiso oloclhigh scoiosmay accumulalo ovoi mulliplo oays of
play. Lvon conliolling foi lho couiso, conoilions, puiso sizo, ano inoivioual holoiogonoilios,
playois` scoios woio 4 lo sliokos highoi whon Wooos pailicipaloo in lho compolilionlho
oslimalos foi iankoo ano uniankoo playois aio nol slalislically oislinguishaLlo.
Compaiing golfois` poifoimancos in 2000 ano 2010, I lno a slalislically signilcanl aovoiso
supoislai olocl foi iankoo ano uniankoo playois in Lolh lisl-iouno ano lnal scoios. On
avoiago, louinamonl scoios woio 8. sliokos highoi whon Wooos was in lho lolo.
1ho magniluoo of lhoso coomcionl oslimalos is iomaikaLloono slioko in lho lisl iouno
ano 8, 4, oi sliokos poi louinamonl aio aslonishingly laigo changos in playois` poifoimancos.
Lxamining micio oala foi playois who pailicipaloo in lho samo ovonl acioss Wooos`s piosonco
ano aLsonco, I can ioonlify inoiviouals who posloo lnal scoios lhal woio highoi in lho
piosonco of lho supoislai. Foi oxamplo: JimFuiyk shol -8 in 2007 ano -6 in 2000 whon Wooos
playoo in lho A1\1 Nalional, ano -0 in 2008 whon Wooos oio nol pailicipalo; ano Vijay
Singh shol 1 in 2007 ano ovon-pai in 2000 in lho WGC-Liiogoslono whon Wooos was in
lho lolo, Lul -10 in 2008 whon Wooos was aLsonl. Of couiso, lho oslimaloo aovoiso supoislai
olocl iolocls a moan ooclino in poifoimancoappioximaloly 10/ of golfois aclually playoo
Lolloi in lho piosonco of a supoislai in lho yoais aiouno Wooos`s knoo suigoiy.
1ho piocision of lho oslimalos in 1aLlo 4 may iolocl lho small samplo sizos, sinco Wooos
missoo only lwo oi lhioo ovonls in oach caso. Moioovoi, ioonlilcalion in lho spocilcalion
wilh inoivioual ano couiso lxoo olocls hingos on inoivioual golfois playing lho samo ovonl
acioss mulliplo yoais wilh ano wilhoul lho supoislai. Howovoi, oospilo lhoso oomanos on
lho oala, lho iosulls aio consislonl wilh an aovoiso supoislai olocl. In gonoial, lisl-iouno
ano louinamonl-lovol oslimalos suggosl lhal golfois play woiso on avoiago whon Wooos is in
lho lolo, iolalivo lo whon ho ooos nol pailicipalo.
3.6 ^Hot and ^CooI IerIods
Allhough his caiooi has Loon oxliaoioinaiy, Wooos`s supoislaioom" has vaiioo acioss limo.
In 2008 ano 2004, Wooos failoo lo win a majoi ovonl ano mooia iopoils claimoo lhal 1igoi
slump givos iivals hopo" ano Wooos` yoai a majoi oisappoinlmonl."
26
Iosulls in 1aLlos 2
incluoo a singlo inoicaloi foi lho piosonco of lho supoislai, lho ompiiical analogy of lxing
playois` iolalivo skill, `. in Soclion 2. If, insloao, I allowoo `

lo lako on high ano low valuos

iolalivo lo `
i
foi i 1, lhon I woulo oxpocl playois` oloils lo iospono accoioingly. Whon lho
supoislai was iolalivoly hol" (laigo `

) . oloil woulo Lo low ano lho supoislai olocl shoulo

26
Hoaolinos Ly Majonoio of LLC.co.uk (Apiil 14, 2008) ano Iolloi of USAlooay.com (Augusl 17, 2008),
iospoclivoly.
17
Lo laigo. Whon lho supoislai was iolalivoly cool" (small `

) . oloil woulo Lo high ano lho

supoislai olocl shoulo Lo small. 1o opoialionalizo lhoso piooiclions, I oslimalo oqualion (1)
wilh hol" ano cool" inoicalois foi Wooos`s moio ano loss succossful poiioos, iospoclivoly.
Lslimalos of lho vaiiaLlos of inloiosl aio iopoiloo in 1aLlo .
I ioonlify hol ano cool poiioos Ly calculaling lho oiloionco Lolwoon Wooos`s avoiago
scoio ano olhoi iankoo playois` avoiago scoio in lho piovious monlh. Whon Wooos`s poi-
foimanco is nol iomaikaLly Lolloi lhan olhoi golfois` poifoimancosscoio oiloioncos in lho
Lollom quinliloho is in a cool poiioo. Whon Wooos`s scoios aio iomaikaLly lowoi lhan
his compolilois` scoiosscoio oiloioncos in lho lop quinliloho is in a hol poiioo. Scoio
oiloioncos in lho socono lo fouilh quinlilos iopiosonl Wooos`s lypical poifoimanco.
27
Iogiossions .1 ano .2 oxamino lisl-iouno scoios, whilo iogiossions .8 ano .4 uso
ovoiall louinamonl scoios. Duiing Wooos`s hol poiioos, lho supoislai olocl is laigo ano sla-
lislically signilcanl; in iogulai ano majoi ovonls, louinamonl scoios of lop-iankoo playois
aio appioximaloly 2 sliokos highoi whon Wooos pailicipalos (-n|& < 0.01). Wooos` im-
pacl appoais oailylop-iankoo playois` lisl-iouno scoios aio appioximaloly 1 slioko highoi
whon Wooos compolos. 1ho scoios of playois iankoo oulsioo of lho lop-20 aio also slalisli-
cally highoi whon Wooos pailicipalos ouiing his hol poiioos. Foi lhoso playois, lisl-iouno
scoios aio appioximaloly 0.6 sliokos highoi ano ovoiall scoios aio appioximaloly 0.07 highoi
in iogulai ovonls whon lhoy faco a hol supoislai.
Cool poiioos havo lho opposilo olocl on lho supoislai coomcionls: somo golfois may
aclually play Lolloi whon Wooos is poicoivoo lo Lo woakoi (ano LoalaLlo). 1ho nJ: su-
poislai olocl oisappoais foi all iankoo playois, ano louinamonl-lovol coomcionls aio nogalivo
ano slalislically signilcanl foi uniankoo compolilois (-n|& < 0.1).
3.7 HIsky StrategIes
Do golfois omploy iiskioi slialogios whon lhoy faco lho supoislai iolalivo lo lhoii play in moio
winnaLlo" louinamonls Iisky shol-laking shoulo wioon lho oisliiLulion of scoios iolalivo
lo moio consoivalivo play. 1hal is, wo mighl oxpocl a playoi puisuing a iisky slialogy in lho
piosonco of a supoislai lo posl moio oaglos (2 sliokos unooi pai) ano moio oouLlo-Logoys
(2 sliokos ovoi pai). Insloao, 1aLlo 1 iopoils lho opposilomoio oaglos ano fowoi oouLlos
aio posloo whon Wooos is nol in lho lolo.
Whilo golfois aim lo minimizo lhoii lolal sliokos on lho couiso, lhoy faco a salionl liaoo-
ol Lolwoon oislanco ano accuiacy. Ilayois can puisuo iisky slialogios lhiough shol ano cluL
soloclionfoi oxamplo, playois oflon faco lho choico lo go foi lho gioon" Ly allompling a
27
Iosulls aio similai whon I uso ono-monlh-laggoo quaililos of scoio oiloioncos ano holcool yoais as
iopoiloo Ly lho mooia; lhoso oslimalos aio nol iopoiloo.
18
longoi ano iiskioi shol lhan ioquiioo lo oain pai. Iai foi a holo is oslaLlishoo Ly ooloimining
lho numLoi of shols ioquiioo lo gol lo lho gioon, plus lwo pulls. 1hal is, a gooo golfoi on
a pai- holo is oxpocloo lo lano on lho gioon wilh his lhiio shol ano lwo-pull foi pai. In
piaclico, howovoi, a playoi mighl chooso lo aim foi lho gioon on his socono shol on a pai-.
A succossful shol may loao lo a Lolloi scoio, whilo an unsuccossful shol lhal lanos in a waloi
hazaio oi long giass may iosull in a oimcull follow-on shol ano a woiso scoio. Iisky shols
may also Lo allomploo ol lho loo; playois may chooso lo hil a highoi-lofl cluL (o.g. an iion
oi highoi wooo) insloao of a oiivoi. Whilo lhoy loso oislanco, lho playoi oxpocls lo gain
accuiacy wilh lhis moio consoivalivo cluL choico.
28
Ilayois may also mako iisk-iolaloo oocisions on lho gioon, whoio sliong pulls lhal push
lho Lall woll pasl lho holo aio also iisky. Lighloi pulls lhal lnish shoil of lho holo lowoi lho
pioLaLilily of a succossful ono, Lul may mako lho noxl pull moio sliaighlfoiwaio. Moioovoi,
oownhill pulls aio consiooiaLly moio oimcull lhan uphill pulls, so loaving a oimcull oownhill
pull is a iisky movo. In lhoii sluoy of loss avoision, Iopo ano Schwoilzoi (2000) consiooi
missoo pulls lhal lnish shoil of lho cup (safo) oi woll pasl lho cup (iisky).
1aLlo 6 piosonls iogiossion iosulls using lwo moasuios of iisky play: vaiianco ano wholhoi
a playoi goos lo lho gioon" whon piosonloo wilh lho oppoilunily lo lako lho iiskioi shol
ol lho faiiway.
Vaiianco is calculaloo Ly oxamining playois` holo-Ly-holo scoios iolalivo lo pai wilhin
oach iouno of a louinamonl. Foi oxamplo, a playoi who lnishos 1-ovoi-pai afloi 18 holos
wilh 12 pais, Logios, 2 Liioios ano 1 oaglo will havo a vaiianco moasuio of 0.76. In conliasl,
a golfoi who lnishos 1-ovoi-pai wilh 17 pais ano a Logio will havo a vaiianco moasuio of 0.0.
In lhoso oala, playois` avoiago iisk moasuio is 0.47 (slanoaio oovialion of 0.28).
20
Iosulls of
iogiossion 6.1 oo nol suggosl lhal playois aio aoopling iiskioi slialogios in lho piosonco of lho
supoislaicoomcionl oslimalos aio voiy small in magniluoo ano nol slalislically oiloionl
fiom zoio. 1ho vaiianco in scoios in iounos 8 ano 4 lonos lo Lo highoi lhan vaiianco in lho
lisl lwo iounos of play. 1his lnoing may iolocl lho facl lhal golfois who mako lho cul afloi
iouno 2 may aoopl iiskioi slialogios onco guaianlooo a cash piizo.
1ho socono iisk moasuio, iopoiloo in lho socono column of 1aLlo 6, is lho fiaclion of
oppoilunilios whoio lho playoi allomploo a iisky going foi il" shol in a louinamonl. Sinco
2002, lho IGA 1oui has iocoiooo playois` allompls lo lano on a gioon in fowoi shols lhan
oxpocloo. Foi oxamplo, a playoi mighl chooso lo aimfoi lho gioon on his socono shol on a pai-
oi wilh a long oiivo on a pai-4 holo. In gonoial, playois will havo 8 lo such oppoilunilios
28
Unfoilunaloly, cluL soloclion oala aio cuiionlly unavailaLlo foi lho IGA 1oui.
20
1ho moasuio iangoo fiom 0 lo 4.1; sovoial playois scoioo oxaclly pai on ovoiy holo of lhoii iouno, whilo
olhois posloo Lolh oaglos ano quaoiuplo Logoys in a singlo iouno.
10
poi iouno. If a playoi goos foi il" in lwo of lvo oppoilunilios in a iouno, lhis is coooo
as 0.4. On avoiago, playois allomploo a iiskioi shol 40/ of lho limo (slanoaio oovialion
of 20/). Whilo lhis moasuio is ciuoo, il piovioos a ioLuslnoss chock on lho analysis of
vaiianco-iolaloo iosulls. In iogiossion 6.2, lho oslimaloo coomcionls oo nol achiovo slalislical
signilcanco unooi a vaiioly of spocilcalions, incluoing a pioLil spocilcalion lhal accounls
foi lho Lounooo ooponoonl vaiiaLloagain, iogiossion iosulls oo nol suggosl lhal playois
aio aoopling iiskioi slialogios in ovonls wilh lho supoislai compoliloi.
Liown ano Li (2010) uso oolailoo appioach shol ano pulling oala lo oxamino how loui-
namonl iank ano aLsolulo scoio oiloioncos Lolwoon lop playois alocl lhoii aooplion of iisky
slialogios. 1hoy oxamino 10- lo 40-fool lisl pulls lhal missoo (oilhoi long oi shoil) Ly moio
lhan 2 inchos, lho mooian oislanco foi unsuccossful socono pulls, ano conliol foi lho giaoo
pull fiom Lall lo cup. 1hoy calculalo lho poiconl of lho lisl pulls lhal woio iisky in oach
iouno ano lno no oiloionco in shol-lovol iisk-iolaloo oulcomos whon Wooos pailicipalos.
3.8 AIternatIve ExIanatIons
Accoioing lo many mooia iopoils, Wooos`s iiso lo supoislaioom has incioasoo fan inloiosl
in piofossional golf. Inoooo, lolovision covoiago ano ialings havo incioasoo oiamalically
sinco 1000on avoiago, lolal viowoiship poi ovonl incioasoo appioximaloly 10/ oach yoai
Lolwoon 1000 ano 2007.
80
Moioovoi, louinamonls in which Wooos pailicipaloo lono lo
oiaw laigoi viowing auoioncos; conliolling foi louinamonl lypo, ovonls wilh Wooos alliacloo
suLslanlially moio lolovision viowois. Ono mighl woiiy lhal lho oslimaloo supoislai olocl is
a funclion of Wooos`s populaiilylhal is, ono mighl wonooi if compolilois aio iosponoing
nol lo lho chango in lho compolilion, Lul lo lho laigoi ciowos oi incioasoo mooia allonlion.
1olovision viowoi ano ialings oala, puichasoo fiom 1ho Niolson Company foi lho onliio
panol of louinamonls fiom 1000 lo 2010, allows mo lo consiooi lhis alloinalivo oxplanalion
foi lho oLsoivoo aovoiso supoislai olocl.
1o conliol foi ovonl populaiily, mooia piosonco ano ciowo sizo, I incluoo lolovision viow-
oiship conliols in all of lho spocilcalions. Allhough nol iopoiloo in lho main laLlos of lho
papoi, in iogiossions oxamining lho poifoimanco impacl of lho supoislai`s pailicipalion in
louinamonls, coomcionl oslimalos foi lho viowoiship vaiiaLlo woio nogalivo Lul nol slalis-
lically signilcanl al convonlional lovols. 1hoso iosulls suggosl lhal, whilo moio viowoiship
may Lo impiocisoly associaloo wilh Lolloi poifoimanco, mooia allonlion is nol oiiving lho
oLsoivoo oocioaso in playois` poifoimancos in louinamonls wilh lho supoislai.
Moioovoi, whon Wooos plays in a lolovisoo ovonl, ho oominalos lho covoiagoaccoioing
80
Aulhoi`s oslimalo using oala fiom 1ho Niolson Company.
20
lo Iopucom, a Liano analysis lim, nolwoiks showoo Wooos noaily 80/ of lho limo ouiing
lisl iouno covoiago ano noaily 10/ of lho limo ouiing lho lnal iouno of lho 2010 Maslois.
81
In conliasl, iolalivoly unknown compolilois iocoivo lilllo aiilimofoi oxamplo, in lho samo
ovonl, Y.L. Yang placoo 8
tI
Lul was novoi shown on lolovision. If non-supoislai playois aio
iocoiving lilllo mooia allonlion whon Wooos compolos, lhon il is unlikoly lhal oisliaclion is
oiiving lho aovoiso poifoimanco iosulls.
A ioconl papoi Ly Guiyan, Kiofl ano Nolowioigoo (2000) oxaminos lho lisl lwo iounos
of louinamonls in 2002, 200 ano 2006 ano lnos lhal Loing paiioo wilh Wooos has no
slalislically signilcanl olocl on golfois` poifoimanco. 1hoii iosulls holp aooioss lwo olhoi
alloinalivo oxplanalions foi lho supoislai olocl. Fiisl, ono mighl wonooi wholhoi il is a
posilivo auoionco oloclano nol lho unoosiiaLlo mooia piossuio consiooioo aLovolhal
oiivos lho cuiionl supoislai iosull. In lhis caso, you mighl aiguo lhal playois poifoim
Lolloi unooi inlonso mooia allonlion ano lhus play woiso whon Wooos is consuming lho
spollighl. If lhis woio liuo, wo woulo oxpocl playois paiioo wilh Wooos lo Lonoll fiom
his populaiily. Guiyan, Kiofl ano Nolowioigoo (2000) show lhal playois shaiing Wooos`s
allonlion oo nol play oiloionlly. Socono, lhoso aulhois` iosulls piovioo ovioonco lhal lho
oLsoivoo poifoimanco olocl is nol ouo lo inlimioalion on lho couiso. Golfois playing noai
lho supoislai shoulo Lo pailiculaily alocloo Ly inlimioalionmoio lhan lhoso who looo-ol
minulos oi houis Lofoioyol lhis ooos nol appoai lo Lo lho caso.
4 ConcIusIon
Whilo lhoio aio many silualions in which louinamonl-slylo inloinal compolilion impiovos
woikoi poifoimanco, louinamonl ano conlosl lhooiy suggosls lhal laigo inhoionl skill oif-
foioncos Lolwoon compolilois can havo lho poivoiso olocl of iooucing oloil inconlivos. 1ho
main conliiLulion of lhis papoi is lo invosligalo wholhoi lhis lhooiolical possiLilily mallois
in piaclico. Using a iich panol oalasol of lho poifoimanco of IGA 1oui golfois, I piosonl
ovioonco lhal a supoislai olocl" is in facl piosonl in piofossional golf louinamonls.
Il is usoful lo know nol only lhal inconlivos aio aovoisoly alocloo Ly lho piosonco of a
supoislai, Lul also lho oconomic magniluoo of lho olocl. Consiooi lho following counloifac-
lual: How much woulo 1igoi Wooos`s oainings havo Loon iooucoo if all of his compolilois
playoo as woll as lhoy oio whon ho was nol in lho lolo In my main iosulls, I ioonlify a
supoislai olocl of appioximaloly ono slioko foi playois iankoo in lho lop-200 in lho woilo.
I simulalo lho oisliiLulion of piizos if all iankoo playois` louinamonl scoios hao Loon ono
81
As iopoiloo Ly lho Now Yoik 1imos on Apiil 22, 2010. hllp:onpai.Llogs.nylimos.com20100420a-
look-al-woooss-lv-piosonco
21
slioko Lolloi whon lhoy compoloo againsl Woooslhal is, I iomovoo lho oslimaloo supoi-
slai olocl fiom playois` scoios. In 84 of lho 186 louinamonls lhal I sluoioo, lho simulaloo
impiovomonl in compolilois` poifoimanco hao no olocl sinco Wooos was sumcionlly alono
in lho scoio oisliiLulion lo avoio a iank-oiooi shifl. In 20 ovonls, lho simulalion shifloo al
loasl ono golfoi inlo a lio wilh Wooos in lho lnal louinamonl slanoing; in lho iomaining
ovonls, Wooos shifloo fiom a lio al a highoi piizo posilion lo a lio al a lowoi piizo posilion.
My calculalions suggosl lhal Wooos`s IGA 1oui oainings woulo havo fallon fiom $4.4
million lo $48.4 million Lolwoon 1000 ano 2006 hao his compolilois` poifoimanco nol suloioo
lho supoislai olocl. Ly my oslimalos, Wooos pockoloo noaily $6 million in aooilional
oainings Locauso of lho iooucoo oloil of olhoi golfoispiizo monoy lhal woulo olhoiwiso
havo Loon oisliiLuloo lo olhoi playois in lho lolo. Viowoo in lhis lighl, lho supoislai olocl
is oconomically suLslanlial.
1o unooislano lho impacl of lho olocl on Wooos`s compolilois, I ask: Whal if any
singlo avoiago playoi woio aLlo lo ovoicomo his own aovoiso poifoimanco Ly oxoiling coslly
oloil ano posl scoios lhal woio ono slioko Lolloi in louinamonls wilh lho supoislai I
simulalo lho lolal winnings of oach of lho iankoo playois, assuming lhal his scoios woio ono
slioko lowoi in all ovonls wilh Wooos Lolwoon 1000 ano 2006. On avoiago, a golfoi woulo
havo oainoo appioximaloly $28,000 moio. Givon lhal an avoiago lop-200 playoi playoo in 12
ovonls wilh Wooos ano oainoo $8.4 million fiom lho IGA 1oui ouiing lho oighl yoai poiioo,
lho ioluin lo oloil sooms small. Foi oxamplo, in lho simulalion, a ono slioko impiovomonl Ly
Davio Lovo III woulo havo incioasoo his avoiago poi-louinamonl oainings Ly appioximaloly
$10,000consiooiaLly loss lhan his iopoiloo oaily ialo foi coipoialo appoaiancos. Of couiso,
lho oslimalos oo nol iolocl impiovoo onooisomonl oppoilunilios lhal woulo havo iosulloo
fiom Lolloi louinamonl play.
Slill, lhoso simulalions piovioo compolling oviooncowhilo lho ovoiall oconomic signil-
canco of lho aovoiso supoislai olocl is sliikingly laigo, inoivioual playois may simply say:
Why shoulo I oxoil moio coslly oloil whon lho maiginal payol in lho piosonco of a supoi-
slai is low"
1ho implicalions of lho supoislai olocl oxlono Loyono lho IGA 1oui ano, in piinciplo,
ioquiio lims lo Lo caulious in using Losl alhlolo" hiiing policios in oiganizalions whoio
inloinal compolilion is a koy oiivoi of inconlivos. Foi oxamplo, salos managois shoulo Lo
awaio of lho consoquoncos of inliooucing a supoislai loam momLoi, ano law lims shoulo
consiooi lho impacl of a supoislai associalo on lho cohoil`s ovoiall poifoimanco. Unooi-
slanoing lho supoislai olocl is a lisl slop lowaios loaining how lo Losl sliucluio silualions
whoio compolilion oxisls Lolwoon playois of voiy holoiogonoous aLililios.
22
HeIerences
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Lconomic Jouinal, 61(2): 8-14.
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24
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2
Figure 1: Numerical Solutions for Three-Players and Two-Prize Model
0
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Note: The figure illustrates numerical solutions to the system of equations presented in Section 2 for a tournament with three players competing for
two prizes. Alpha (!) describes the purse-sharing rule, where the winner receives fraction ! of the total purse, the second-place player receives
fraction (1-!) of the total purse, and the third-place player receives 0. The vertical axis measures the effort of the two, identical non-superstar players
in the tournament. The horizontal axis measures the relative ability advantage of the superstar player, where the superstar is " times more skilled than
the regular, non-superstar players.
Figure 2: Mean Scores for PGA Tour Events 1999-2006
-16
-14
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Note: Only players who made the cut are included. Regular and major events are included; values for small-field and alternate events are not presented. Ranks reflect
players Official World Golf Ranking at the time of the event. Values for Tiger Woods are presented separately and, therefore, are omitted from the statistics for top-
ranked players.
Figure 3: Scores Relative to Par Over Time for Tournaments With and Without Tiger Woods
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Figure 4: Differences in Tournament Scores for Events With and Without Tiger Woods
-2
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
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Rank 1 to 20 Rank 21 to 200 Unranked
Note: Only scores from players who made the cut are included in the calculations. Regular and major events are included; small-field and alternate events are
excluded. "With Tiger Woods" indicates that Woods played in the tournament, while "Without Tiger Woods" includes only tournament in which Woods did not
participate. Ranks reflect players Official World Golf Ranking at the time of the event. Scores for Tiger Woods are excluded.
Figure 5 - Distribution of Tournament Scores for Barclays Classic and Wachovia Championship in 2005
Note: Only scores from players who made the cut are included. Woods's final score in the Wachovia Championship is excluded.
0
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Strokes Relative to Par
Barclays 2005 - Woods Did Not Participate
Wachovia 2005 - Woods Participated
Average # Per
Round in
Tournaments
With Tiger
Average # Per
Round in
Tournaments
Without Tiger
Woods
H
0
: Equal number with
and without Tiger
(Unpaired t-test)
2 Strokes under par "Eagle" 0.080 0.093 p-value=0.065
(0.004) (0.006)
1 Stroke under par "Birdie" 3.815 3.866 p-value=0.194
(0.021) (0.033)
Equal to par "Par" 11.323 11.354 p-value=0.515
(0.026) (0.038)
1 Stroke over par "Bogey" 2.510 2.448 p-value=0.069
(0.020) (0.028)
2 Strokes over par "Double Bogeys 0.242 0.218 p-value=0.035
(0.006) (0.009)
Table 1: Average Number of Eagles, Birdies, Pars, Bogeys and Double Bogeys in Tournaments With and
Without Tiger Woods from 2002 to 2006
Note: Values in parentheses are standard deviations. Only scores from players who "made the cut" are included.
Regular and major events are included; small-field and alternate events are excluded. "With Tiger Woods" indicates
that Woods played in the tournament, while "Without Tiger Woods" includes only tournaments in which Woods did
not participate. Scores for Tiger Woods are excluded.
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
Strokes Relative to Par for
Tournament types:
Superstar Effect for Players:
Ranked 1 to 20 0.596 ** 0.535 * 1.358 ** 0.996
(0.281) (0.302) (0.726) (0.786)
Ranked 21 to 200 0.161 0.141 0.804 *** 0.672 **
(0.113) (0.117) (0.318) (0.328)
Unranked 0.202 0.212 0.596 0.311
(0.126) (0.131) (0.396) (0.400)
Other variable coefficients suppressed
# of obs 34986 29167 18805 15651
Adjusted R-squared 0.29 0.21 0.48 0.38
regulars & majors regulars regulars & majors regulars
Table 2: Regression Results for Scores in Regular and Major Tournaments 1999-2006
first round first round tournament tournament
Note: All specifications include controls for players' rank, strength of the field, wind, rain and temperature, purse size, television viewership, tournament
type, and course-player fixed effects.Values in parentheses are standard errors, clustered by player-year (e.g. Mickelson in 1999). *,**, and ***
represent statistical significance at p-values of 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. "Major" events are the PGA Championship, US Open, British Open
and Masters. Scores for Tiger Woods are excluded.
Event: Personal Issues
Years: 2009-2010
Months: July August March
Ranked 1 to 20 with Woods -4.00 4.51 4.60
(3.61) (7.29) (4.16)
# of obs 5 35 5
without Woods -8.00 -0.17 -1.00
(5.24) (5.06) (6.04)
# of obs 9 18 9
Ranked 21 to 200 with Woods 2.01 3.84 5.84
(4.70) (10.05) (5.20)
# of obs 86 136 44
without Woods -5.97 2.63 1.87
(4.93) (6.44) (5.07)
# of obs 73 57 47
Unranked with Woods 4.13 -2.68 6.48
# of obs (4.69) (11.43) (4.14)
53 59 23
without Woods -4.09 5.80 3.21
(4.58) (7.82) (5.75)
# of obs 70 5 19
2007-2009
Table 3: Tournament Scores in Selected Events with and without Tiger Woods
Knee Surgery
Note: Values in parentheses are standard deviations. Months and years of interest reflect the timing
of Woods's unexpected absences from competition. Only scores from players who made the cut are
included."With Woods" indicates that Woods played in the tournament, while "Without Woods"
includes the same tournaments when Woods did not participate in the year of interest. Scores for
Tiger Woods are excluded.
Event:
Period included:
Strokes Relative to Par for:
Superstar Effect for Players:
Ranked 1 to 20 0.244 3.919 *** 1.125 2.754
(0.614) (1.462) (0.930) (2.038)
Ranked 21 to 200 0.317 5.647 *** 1.510 *** 3.519 ***
0.309 0.956 0.447 1.050
Unranked 0.119 5.755 *** 1.210 *** 3.554 ***
(0.377) (1.094) (0.484) (1.351)
Other variable coefficients suppressed
# of obs 2676 1616 2339 1172
Adjusted R-squared 0.21 0.58 0.18 0.36
Table 4: Regression Results for Woods's Unexpected Absences
First-Round Tournament First-Round
Knee Surgery in 2008 Personal Issues in 2009 and 2010
July - Sept 2007-2009 January - March 2009-2010
Tournament
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4
Note: All specifications include controls for wind, rain and temperature, purse size, course- and player-level fixed
effects.Values in parentheses are standard errors, clustered by player-year (e.g. Mickelson in 1999). *,**, and ***
represent statistical significance at p-values of 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. Scores for Tiger Woods are
excluded.
Strokes Relative to Par for
Tournament types:
Ranked 1 to 20 Typical Superstar Effect 0.358 0.381 1.016 0.792
(0.302) (0.332) (0.833) (0.927)
Hot Superstar Effect 0.982 *** 1.388 *** 2.074 *** 2.276 ***
(0.321) (0.379) (0.775) (0.961)
Cool Superstar Effect 0.279 -0.418 0.500 -0.753
(0.439) (0.501) (1.049) (1.330)
Ranked 21 to 200 Typical Superstar Effect -0.088 -0.065 0.669 ** 0.519
(0.127) (0.130) (0.365) (0.373)
Hot Superstar Effect 0.611 *** 0.744 *** 1.377 ** 1.414 ***
(0.139) (0.152) (0.369) (0.400)
Cool Superstar Effect -0.220 -0.299 * -0.332 -0.265
(0.171) (0.173) (0.486) (0.519)
Unranked Typical Superstar Effect 0.129 0.222 0.433 0.310
(0.152) (0.153) (0.460) (0.465)
Hot Superstar Effect 0.523 *** 0.602 *** 1.387 *** 0.974 *
(0.149) (0.159) (0.504) (0.522)
Cool Superstar Effect -0.294 -0.342 -1.151 * -1.110 *
(0.216) (0.215) (0.663) (0.632)
Other variable coefficients suppressed
# of obs 34986 29167 18805 15656
Adjusted R-squared 0.29 0.58 0.48 0.38
regulars & majors regulars regulars & majors regulars
Table 5: Regression Results for "Typical", "Hot" and "Cool" Periods
5.3 5.4 5.1
tournament tournament first round first round
5.2
Note: All specifications include controls for players' rank, strength of the field, wind, rain and temperature, purse size, television viewership,
tournament type, and course-player fixed effects.Values in parentheses are standard errors, clustered by player-year (e.g. Mickelson in 1999).
*,**, and *** represent statistical significance at p-values of 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. "Major" events are the PGA Championship,
US Open, British Open and Masters. The difference between the average score posted by ranked players and the score posted by Tiger
Woods was calculated for all months. "Cool" and "Hot" periods represent the first and fifth quintile of these values, respectively, lagged by
one month. Missing percentile values were replaced with data from the previous available month. Scores for Tiger Woods are excluded.
Dependent Variable:
Ranked 1 to 20 0.001 0.016
(0.023) (0.055)
Ranked 21 to 200 -0.005 -0.005
(0.009) (0.039)
Unranked 0.013 0.025
(0.012) (0.041)
Round 2 -0.002 0.003
(0.006) (0.072)
Round 3 0.027 *** -0.013
(0.008) (0.078)
Round 4 0.034 *** -0.017
(0.008) (0.046)
Other variable coefficients suppressed
# of obs 29166 7423
Adjusted R-squared 0.29 0.41
"Went for it" Measure
(Greens attempted /
Total opportunities)
Regulars 2002-2006
Table 6: Regression Results for Risky-Strategy Measures
6.2 6.1
Variance of Strokes
Relative to Par in
Regular Events
2001-2006
Note: All specifications include controls for wind, rain and temperature, purse size, and player-course
fixed effects. Values in parentheses are standard errors, clustered by player-year (e.g. Mickelson in
1999). *,**, and *** represent statistical significance at p-values of 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively.
Only data from players who made the cut are included.