Third Lecture
Pak-US relations
• Engagements
• Disengagements
• Appraisal & Policy
recommendations
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Points to Consider!
• Foreign Policy is formed to protect national interests while
interacting at International level.
• This goal can’t be achieved without the acquisition of “power”.
• It is the power that decides the FP – proactive & independent
or reactive & dependent.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Pak-US Relations
Historical Background:
• Cold War & Decolonization.
• Independence of Pakistan.
• Pakistan’s options: US or Soviet Union
Why USA?
• Economic,
• Security,
• Ideological,
• Technological/scientific,
• Elite’s inclination (British links, etc.)
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Dynamics of that Era
• USA was happy to see India under British influence,
• However, with China’s emergence as ‘Communist State’
• USA invited Nehru for a state visit to USA in 1949,
• Pakistan received an invitation from Moscow,
• Indian refusal to join Western block, impelled the US to look to
the Pakistan. (geostrategic location of Pakistan)
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
• Liaqat Ali Khan visited USA in 1950
• (Kashmir, Pakhtunistan Issues were discussed)
• Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement (May1954)
• SEATO 1954, Cento 1955
• Pakistan received 3.5$ billion b/w 1953-1962 in economic and
military aid
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
SEATO-CENTO countries: Cold War Geopolitics
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Pak-US marriages & separations
First Marriage: 1950-1962 (bipolar world order)
• MDAA, SEATO & CENTO signed against Soviet Union.
• Pakistan received military hardware. (Military)
• Liaquat Ali & Ghulam Muhammad visited USA. (Diplomatic)
• Pakistan received economic aid. (Economic)
Cost Pakistan paid:
Arabs and Soviets (U2 incident 1960) turned against Pakistan.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
First Separation: 1962-1973
• US military support to India during Indo-China war 1962
pushed Pakistan towards China. (Friends not Masters)
• US inaction during Pak-India war 1971.
• Pakistan facilitated US-China relations in early 1971-72, but
that did not improve Pak-US relations.
• Pak role in US-China relations infuriated Soviets.
• Arabs were not happy either over CENTO.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Second Marriage: 1979-1988 (bipolar world order)
• Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December 1979.
• US, Pakistan, KSA interests converged.
• Pakistan entered into ‘Afghan Jihad’
• Received economic & military aid.
Cost Pakistan paid:
• US and others left Pakistan into the lurch to deal the monster.
• Violent extremism, Talibanization and Terrorism.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Second Separation: 1988-2001 (Unipolar World)
• Soviet Union was defeated with Pakistani and US became
the sole super power.
• Objective was achieved & Pakistan was found “of no use”.
• US pressed Pakistan over nuclear issue.
• Imposed sanctions on Pakistan and stopped civil-military
aid. (Pressler Amendment 1985)
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Third Marriage: 2001-2011 (coercive diplomacy/mistrust)
• 9/11 terror attacks, US invasion of Afghanistan.
• US asked Pakistan for help in “War on Terror”.
• Pakistan gave US access to the Afghanistan.
• Intelligence, military, and logistic support was also accorded.
• Pak received CSF for the sacrifices/services it paid.
• Pakistan was asked to ‘do more’ & blamed for duplicity.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
• Pakistan played a key role in Taliban-US-Afghn govt dialogue –
resulted in US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
• Obama, Trump, Biden accused Pakistan for not living up to the
hopes of the USA.
Cost Pakistan paid:
• Pakistan became casualty of WoT: incited Pashtun nationalism,
unleashed Jihad, class/cultural war, anti-US & anti Pak-Army
sentiments.
• 73k human &150 BUS$ Eco loss, two front war, self-esteem,
image
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Third Separation: 2011- onward.
• US-India growing ties against China.
• Salalah post, Raymond Davis, Abbot Abad raid, Indian role
in Afghanistan, Blaming Pakistan for duplicity with Taliban.
• Pakistan responded by stopping US/NATO supplies to the
Afghanistan.
• Suspension of aid programs by the US.
• Pushing Pakistan towards China.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Explanation:
• Pakistan doesn’t fit into US future grand strategy, but India
does.
• Afghan tragedy (for US) has further deepened the gulf.
Conclusion:
• During 1947-2019, Pakistan received 70 Billion US Dollars in
economic aid.
• Lost 70 plus thousand human lives and more than 150 $Billion
in economic.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Complicating Factors
Geopolitical vision
▪ Pakistan’s South Asian dilemma.
▪ USA’s global aspirations
Afghanistan, Terrorism, & Taliban.
▪ Both want stability of their suiting.
▪ Clash of narratives (cost-Pakistan: Aid-USA)
India
▪ Role in Afghanistan, US wanted to accommodate and punish
Pakistan.
China
▪ Pakistan sees as source of economic well-being
▪ US wants Pakistan to distant from China.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Appraisal of Pak-US relations
• A security centric relations.
• Hard to term this relationship ‘comprehensive & strategic’.
• Turned Pakistan from an ‘aid dependent to aid addicted’
country.
• US help strengthened Pakistan’s military apparatus.
• But, that too came with a massive price.
There have been marriages and separations but no divorce.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
How do US-Pakistan go about?
• A comprehensive approach from US is the requisite for the long
term relationship.
• Should boost economic bilateralism (US is Pakistan’s top export
destination & Pakistan is US’s 56th largest trade partner).
• US can help fix Pakistan’s climate vulnerabilities (winning hearts
& minds), science & Technology.
• Pakistan and US needs to cooperate on Afghanistan.
• US needs to consider Pakistani security concerns vis-à-vis India in
case of Afghanistan.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
• Disengagement and sanctions may satisfy hawks in
Washington, but will be dangerous idea to alienate Pakistan.
• It will reduce US leverage in Pakistan – Indo-Pak war.
• Disengagement will push Pakistan into Chinese camp.
• Sanctions have not worked in 1990s (nuclear, after 2001), nor
would work now.
• Constructive US-Pak engagement will help both – regionally
and globally.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
• Regime Change accusations by the former premier Imran
Khan has further deteriorated the relations (although, later
accusations reversed)
• Pakistan has to have relations with the USA – the preeminent
power of the Int. system.
• Though this will not be easy for Pakistan to balance its
relationship with US and China. WHY?
• In New Cold War, both will push states to side with them
against the other.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
• Pakistan and US need a ‘reset’ & far broader relations beyond
Afghanistan.
• Pakistan wants a comprehensive partnership, consistent with
its new found geo-economic vision, by burying the past.
• It has shown openness to the West, that goes beyond the lens
of CPEC.
• Its relationship with China is not zero-sum at the expense of US
interests.
• Pakistan should not be seen through the prism of Afghanistan,
India, Terrorism, & China.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
Year US $ Million 1969 123
1953 45 1970 28
1954 89 1971 15
1955 114 1972 129
1956 82 1973 110
1957 365 1974 100
1958 305 1975 107
1959 367 1976 108
1960 758 1977 133
1961 668 1978 78
1962 755 1979 79
1963 151 1980 82
1964 140 1981 57
1965 95
1966 182
1967 223
1968 162
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
According to a report by the Center for Global
Development (CGD), the United States provided
Pakistan with over $67 billion in aid between
1951 and 2011, which includes both military and
economic aid
This figure includes both grants and loans
Lecture by: Muhammad Mehran Iqbal, NOA Islamabad.
While viewing the US-Pakistan relationship exclusively through the
security lens seems to be untenable, the road ahead, in the broader
context of the Afghanistan withdrawal and great power competition,
remains murky. Nevertheless, there exists a willingness on both sides to
avoid the lows of the 1990s even if the highs of the 1980s or 2000s are
not possible. It is, therefore, important to understand the interplay of
the current state of diverging and converging interests of both
countries that may inform the contours of a “right sized” relationship.
A final Sum-Up
