1 Piracy, 1NC No Solvency: China wont agree to the Plan 1.

Solvency burden: The Affirmative must prove the China will agree to the plan. If not, then they can garner no advantages nor solve for harms. That would warrant a negative ballot for failing the burden to prove solvency. 2. China is not ready to negotiate anti-piracy cooperation for the South China Sea Dr. Gaye Christoffersen, Associate professor @ Johns Hopkins University, Asian Perspective, 2009 (She is an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University. Vol. 33, No. 3, 2009, pp. 107-149. Japan and
the East Asian Maritime Security Order: Prospects for trilateral and multilateral cooperation. http://www.asianperspective.org/articles/v33n3-d.pdf)

Japanese and Chinese media have reported that the first official U.S.-Japan-China Track I policy dialogue was tentatively scheduled for July 2009 in Washington. Japanese expectations were high that this trilateral dialogue would be the core of an East Asian multilateral regime. However, Beijing postponed the meeting, perhaps because China was not ready.

No Solvency: Military action wont solve piracy 1. Military action does not solve for piracy. African pirates prove this. Jack Lang, former French foreign minister on his report to the United Nations, March 7, 2011 (Somalias red tide. Section: Editorial; Pg. A12. Lexis/Nexis) "The pirates are winning." That's how Jack Lang describes the chaos off the Horn of Africa, where Somali pirates are plying a lucrative, growing and sometimes bloody trade. He should know. In a report to the United Nations, the former French foreign minister found Somali raids cost the world $7 billion a year, factoring in military efforts to thwart the pirates, lost merchandise, skyrocketing ransom fees and insurance. Last year they staged 286 attacks, hijacked 67 ships and took 1,130 hostages. They netted $240 million in ransom, often getting $5 million or more per cargo freighter and oil tanker. Nor is Somalia's red tide just a matter of red ink. As the recent murder of four hijacked Americans showed, even a rotating flotilla of some 30 warships from the U.S. Fifth Fleet, Canada and elsewhere can't guarantee the safety of some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Roughly 25,000 vessels transit the Red Sea and Suez Canal each year. The pirates now hold 800 hostages and 30 ships. Increasingly, hostages are at risk of being harmed. 2. Alternate Cause for piracy: economic conditions The Jakarta Post, April 25, 2011 (Extending cooperation to combat sea piracy. Page 6. Lexis/Nexis)
Second, the phenomenon has become a common concern in the region. For instance, during the same years, there were 63, 26, and 25 reported cases in Malaysia, the Singapore Strait and the Philippines. These numbers further emphasize that maritime piracy is a serious threat faced by many countries in Southeast Asia. Peter Chalk (2000) analyzes that there are at least two major phenomena that have caused the increase in piracy in the region. The end of the Cold War has decreased the control by the superpowers over the oceans. The US, Russia and the UK have significantly

The Asian crisis in 1997-1998 also contributed to a growth of piracy in the region in two ways. First, economic turmoil caused many people to lose their jobs, while prices increased. As is the case with many other crimes, piracy is a bad alternative usually chosen by people to make ends meet.
reduced their presence around the world, resulting in less control and monitoring over the high seas.

Judge, the alternate cause is important because the plan cannot solve for this other cause of piracy.

3 No Solvency: Military action wont solve piracy 3. Military power does not end piracy, it only moves it around Admiral Willard, the head of United States Pacific Command, based in Hawaii, November 14, 2011 (Press briefing by NSA for Strategic Communications, Ben Rhodes and Admiral Robert Willard. States News Service. Lexis/Nexis Piracy still exists in the Asia Pacific region. As you know, if you range back about seven or eight years, we had a significant piracy problem that was manifesting itself in the Strait of Malacca. And it was the nations of Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand that came together and began to patrol in earnest the Strait of Malacca and quelled piracy quite a bit. Typically, when you drive pirates out of one region they tend to appear in another. 4. Turn: Escalation. Pirates will just get more firepower like they are doing in Africa Journal of Commerce Online, July 13, 2011 (Pirate Attacks Grew 36 Percent in First Half 2011; Somali pirates
attack more, succeed less, by Peter T. Leach. Section: Piracy; Pg. WP. Lexis/Nexis)

In the first six months of 2011, many of the attacks have occurred east and northeast of the Gulf of Aden, an area navigated by crude oil tankers sailing from the Arabian Gulf, as well as other ships sailing into the Gulf of Aden. Since 20 May, pirates attacked 14 ships in the southern Red Sea. Somali pirates took 361 sailors hostage and
kidnapped 13 in the first six months of 2011. Worldwide, 495 seafarers were taken hostage. Pirates killed seven people and injured 39.

Ships, including oil and chemical tankers, are increasingly being attacked with automatic weapons and rocket propelled grenade launchers. Whereas five years ago pirates were just as likely to brandish a knife as a gun, guns were used in 160 attacks and knives in 35 attacks this year.
Ninety-nine vessels were boarded, 76 fired upon and 62 thwarted attacks were reported.

Judge, this is important because military escalation will only make what limited attacks that happen now, more deadly because the pirates will just escalate their weapons. This makes attacks more deadly and maybe effective, thus turning case solvency and making the limited harms worse than in status quo.

4 No Significance 1. Piracy is decreasing. Only 50 attacks in 6 months Voice of America News, September 27, 2011 (Indonesian Pirate Arrest Leads to Broader Network in Malacca
Strait, by Kate Lamb. Lexis/Nexis)

In the first half of this year, the International Maritime Bureau recorded more than 50 incidents of piracy across Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the South China Sea. A regional piracy monitoring center in Singapore reports that, although the overall piracy situation in Asia has improved in the past year, sea lanes near Indonesia's coastline remain the most common locations for pirate attacks. 2. Significance press: How much is piracy in the South China Sea costing? Please be specific to the region, not piracy globally. Judge, this is important because according to the NFA-LD rules, the affirmative has the burden to prove that harms exist in the status quo to warrant the plan. Additionally, these harms have to be significant enough and solved enough by the plan as to outweigh disadvantages.

5 Turns to regional stability advantage These function as offense/disadvantages 1. Turn to regional stability. Historically, closer military ties between the U.S. and China to fight piracy increases regional instability Dr. Gaye Christoffersen, Associate professor @ Johns Hopkins University, Asian Perspective, 2009 (She is an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University. Vol. 33, No. 3, 2009, pp. 107-149. Japan and
the East Asian Maritime Security Order: Prospects for trilateral and multilateral cooperation. http://www.asianperspective.org/articles/v33n3-d.pdf)

A Japanese professor claimed: The government, diplomats and the policy makers in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are very afraid because Beijing was projecting power overseas and doing so through cooperation with the United States.95 The Japanese media portrayed U.S.-China naval cooperation in Somalia as a type of Japan passing. 2. Turn: Japan and Philippines will act to counter Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea Text of report in English by Japan's largest news agency Kyodo, September 9, 2011 (Japan,
Philippines agree to boost cooperation on maritime security. Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring. Lexis/Nexis)

Japan and the Philippines agreed Friday [9 September] to work more closely on maritime security, amid China's growing activities in surrounding waters. The first deputy directorlevel talks between Japan and the Philippines on ocean security were held in Tokyo at a time when China's sovereignty claims in the East China Sea and the South China Sea are expanding. Japan and the Philippines also agreed to enhance cooperation in fighting piracy, a Foreign Ministry official said. 3. China exploits maritime cooperation to increase its hegemony Peter A. Dutton is an associate professor of strategic research in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College and an adjunct professor at Roger Williams University School of Law. He is a retired Navy commander and judge advocate. Winter 2009. (Charting a Course: US-China Cooperation at Sea. China Security, Vol. 5 No. 1 Winter 2009,
pp. 11-26. http://www.washingtonobserver.org/pdfs/Dutton.pdf)

In December 2008, Chinese leaders announced that the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) would join the anti-piracy efforts off the Horn of Africa.1 This decision reflects Chinas
increasing global interests and the threat posed to them by non-traditional security concerns, particularly the rise in piracy that has disrupted shipping traffic in the critical sea lanes that run through the Gulf of Aden.2 The international community has been battling such threats in the region for many years, but until

recently China has avoided cooperative maritime security efforts with other countries, including the United States. Thus, the decision may also reflect a move by China to assume more influence over international security affairs. 4. Turn: Plan increases instability and anxiety. The plan gives respect to Chinas claims to their interpretation of its exclusive economic zone. This will be perceived as the

6 U.S. as taking Chinas side against other nations like Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan. This turns case by increasing anxiety and instability.

7 1NR Extensions Turn to stability advantage: Closer U.S./China ties worries Japan. Increases instability. Text of report in English by Japan's largest news agency Kyodo, September 9, 2011 (Japan,
Philippines agree to boost cooperation on maritime security. Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring. Lexis/Nexis)

Following his visit to China, Biden visited Mongolia and Japan, highlighting Washington's role in the region. Biden made a one-day stop in coal-rich Mongolia on Monday, where he praised the
growing diplomatic relationship between the US and Mongolia. In Japan, he expressed steadfast US support for its close ally in the wake of the recent earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disaster. Michael

Cox, a professor at London School of

Economics and Political Science said Biden's visit to Japan - Washington's closest ally in the

region - was necessary, otherwise it could be implied that China is more important to the US than Japan. "Japan needs reassurance about its importance - as well as China - in terms of its importance in US relations with the Asia-Pacific region." Turn to stability advantage: China uses anti-piracy as a cover for aggressive territory claims Associated Press Online, March 4, 2011 (Vietnam protests Chinese military drills. Lexis/Nexis) Vietnam has protested Chinese military drills in a group of islands that both countries claim, calling them a violation of its sovereignty. Vietnam's Foreign Ministry said in a statement posted late Thursday on its website that China's navy conducted counter-piracy drills in the Spratly island archipelago in the South China Sea a week earlier. Judge, even if China has pure motives for military drills in the name of fighting piracy, Chinas neighbors perceive these activities as aggressive. This turns the advantage by creating more instability. At the very least it functions as a solvency take out.

8 1NR Extensions 1NR evidence for China wont do Plan: Restraint against more cooperation is expressed by China Peter A. Dutton is an associate professor of strategic research in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College and an adjunct professor at Roger Williams University School of Law. He is a retired Navy commander and judge advocate. Winter 2009. (Charting a Course: US-China Cooperation at Sea. China Security, Vol. 5 No. 1 Winter 2009,
pp. 11-26. http://www.washingtonobserver.org/pdfs/Dutton.pdf)

Restraint has been clearly expressed by US and Chinese leaders concerning the potential for increased maritime cooperation. While common interests exist, the capability to provide governance on the oceans is more than simply a function of bringing together physical capacity - ships, aircraft, trained personnel, communications and information systems, etc. It also requires at least a fundamental level of agreement over the authority on which to employ that capability. 1NR evidence for no solvency. Tagline: African piracy proves that pirates adapt to military tactics to keep hijacking UPI, July 8, 2011 (Somali piracy now 'big business. Lexis/Nexis) Giles Heimann of the shipping group Imec said the pirates have adapted to attempts to protect shipping. "When the high risk area was created in the Gulf of Aden and ships started following the set routes and naval ships were there to protect vessels, the pirates then moved from the Gulf of Aden to the North Arabian Sea, where it has now spread," he said. "Whatever we do the pirates have adapted."

1NR Extensions

Military exercises wont create stability. China holds exercises with the U.S. but their main aim is territory not anti-piracy. Korea Times, July 14, 2011 (Increasing piracy in Southeast Asia, by Brittany Damora and Evan Jendruck.
Lexis/Nexis)

China's aggressive claims to parts of the South China Sea contested by the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei is damaging regional cooperation against piracy, allowing more attacks - 41 so far this year after 30 last year. Recent naval exercises with the U.S. included anti-piracy drills but the main aim has become establishing sovereignty. Judge, this is important because it is Chinese claims that hold back international cooperation in the region. Again from The Korea Times, July 14, 2011 (Increasing piracy in Southeast Asia, by Brittany Damora and
Evan Jendruck. Lexis/Nexis)

Further complicating attempts to tackle piracy are the disputed claims in the South China Sea, including the Spratly and Paracel island groups. Recent spats between China, Vietnam and the Philippines greatly limit the chances of formerly-effective cooperation in the disputed waters until this is resolved or eased.

10
NFA-LD judge paradigm clip: You dont have to read this out loud to the judge. The affirmative is required to meet three initial burdens. The affirmative must prove: The harm of the present system or that a comparative advantage or goal can be achieved over the present system; The inherency which prevents solving those harms or achieving those advantages or goals; and, the proposed plans ability to solve the harm or achieve the advantage or goal claimed by affirmative. The negative may attack any of these issues, but need only win one to win the debate. The negative may also challenge the jurisdiction (topicality) of the affirmative proposal or argue that disadvantages to the proposal outweigh its benefits.

Judge, the NFA-LD rules say that if the Affirmative fails to uphold one or more of their stock issues burdens, they lose the round. With that in mind here multiple reasons for the Negative to win this round. First, failure to solve: a. China wont sign on with the Plan b. Even if they do, which is very doubtful, the U.S. wont enter their exclusive economic zones out of the respect mandate in the Plan. We are not even sure what that means. c. Military patrols dont solve. African pirates are still a major problem even with more enforcement. The former French foreign minister testified to this in his report to the UN. d. Alternate cause. Piracy will never go away as long as there is poverty. The plan cannot solve for the root cause. e. Pirates will adapt to raid ships in other areas. U.S. Navy, Admiral Willard testified to this. Pirates move, they dont disappear. f. Escalating the conflict motivates pirates to escalate and improve their weaponry. This makes the status quo deadlier and functions as a disadvantage to the plan. Second voting issue is the stock issue of significant harms. a. The affirmative has to prove significant harms to piracy in specific regard to the South China Sea b. Not even the number of attacks are large. The third voting issue is the plan increases tensions. It wont decrease suspicions. These also turn case harms and function as disadvantages, but at least they would be surely solvency take outs too. a. Vietnam and Japan get nervous when China gets stronger, has more authority, or seems to get too cozy with the U.S. b. China uses anti-piracy efforts as a guise for expanding its hegemony.

11 CX questions: 1. China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines have conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea, right? Wont nations fear that the plans respect solidifies Chinas claims and weakens their positions? Why wont other nations perceive the U.S. as taking a side? 2. International cooperation within UN Security Council Resolution 1851 was partially based on the Somali government requesting help correct? Since that is true, can you show where the Chinese government is requesting international help or U.S. help, specifically with regard to piracy in the South China Sea? 3. What does it mean when the plan says the U.S. will respect Chinas exclusive economic zone? Does it mean that U.S. ships will not go in without permission? Can you prove that China will give permission? If not, will China itself enforce that zone? If so, why is the plan even necessary? In other words, if the Chinese wont allow U.S. military ships free patrol of Chinas exclusive economic zone, why does China need this cooperation. a) China will either agree to let U.S. warships patrol Chinas EEZ (which I doubt they have the cards) or we are to believe that China is going to sign an agreement that does not meaningfully expand Chinese security because it does not allow for an increased presence to fight pirates. So they either wont sign or the plan does not increase solvency. U.S. allies have claims to disputed S. China Sea territory Syamsul Had, University of Indonesia international relations expert, November 15, 2011, The Jakarta Post, ( ASEAN to keep its centrality. Lexis/Nexis.)
He said ASEAN had brought the US closer to the circle following a string of incidents in the South China Sea between China -- the largest claimant in the area -- and four ASEAN claimants -- Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines -- as well as between China and the US. "Indeed, there

have been overlapping [territorial] claims among Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Taiwan and China in the South China Sea," said Syamsul. "The problems became more complicated
after China reacted harshly to a US naval ship, Impeccable, in March 2009."

The Chinese want control over military activities within their EEZ (exclusive economic zone) Peter A. Dutton is an associate professor of strategic research in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the US Naval War College and an adjunct professor at Roger Williams University School of Law. He is a retired Navy commander and judge advocate. Winter 2009. (Charting a Course:
US-China Cooperation at Sea. China Security, Vol. 5 No. 1 Winter 2009, pp. 11-26. http://www.washingtonobserver.org/pdfs/Dutton.pdf) For instance, although the substantial majority of states accept the right of all states to apply universal jurisdiction in the exclusive economic zone of other states, Chinas

perspective on the right balance of legal authorities in this zone is weighted in favor of the coastal state. Chinas reluctance to participate directly with a number of US-led maritime security operations stems from this divergence. The Chinese position appears to be that when operating in the exclusive economic zone of another state, naval vessels must gain coastal state consent to undertake any activities other than those necessary for passage. Chinese scholars have offered the perspective that conducting other military activities without coastal state consent constitutes an abuse of freedom of navigation, and that it undermines the peace,

12 tranquility and good legal order in their exclusive economic zones, and thus violates [the coastal states] sovereign rights and exclusive jurisdiction.