DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.3480

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) Await fresh signal. Await New Buy Trade Setup. Await fresh signal.

1.3650

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

LONG 2

1.0250

1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) Exited Short Position. All 3 Objectives met. Await fresh signal. Look to see how 103.41-104.00 fares. Awaiting Fresh Signal.

1.0250

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

Sell stop 3 Sell Stop 3 SHORT 3

1.2130 1680 34.1300

1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1595/1450/1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

1.2230 1740 35.6880

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
Bearish decline targets 1.3146.
FAILED
BREAKOUTS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

EUR/USD (Daily)

BERMUDA TRIANGLE

EUR/USD is resuming its sharp decline from key overhead resistance (primarily an important 2 year trend and its 200-day average). Bearish momentum remains anchored by heightened contagion fears driven

BREAKOUT ZONE (1.4000)

from greater European sovereign debt risk. Expect further downside scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and psychological level at 1.3000, then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

200-DMA (1.4101)

1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

Further pressure may also weigh from broad risk-related proxies. The euro continues to share a high correlation with the S&P500 and AUD/USD. Inversely, the USD Index is holding its recovery above long-term 200-day

UPTREND (2 YEARS)

MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 9-month highs near 80. Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.71) 9 MONTH HIGH
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

USD INDEX (4 YEARS)

(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.

VIDEO

+27%

+19%
+10%
SO FAR

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

BREAKOUT ZONE
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

TRIGGER (15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3650

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD
Extending decline lower.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

GBP/USD saw a clear break under the 1.5871-77 floor that had been containing weakness off the recent 1.6167 high.
200-Day Average

The recent failure to

realise a return to 1.6200, to complete the rising phase off 1.5272, is another warning sign of a messy sideways market, with impulsive moves failing to materialise where expected. Continued settlement beneath the 1.5632 region will favour further downside scope. Failure to hold above this level will warn that strength from 1.5272 is complete, keeping downside pressure on this market. The falling wedge that has been developing in the hourly timeframe is suggestive of an exhaustion of the recent down phase. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Probability favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

USD/JPY is continuing to edge lower, with the growing probability of another price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH

a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.
82.00

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

POST BOJ MOVE (II) HIGH

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders, which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
80.24

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN ANTICIPATES BREAKOUT (85-79)

PIR II

POST BOJ MOVE (III) HIGH

major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained
PIR III

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30. Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, launching a powerful recovery into 91.00.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change CNBC Report

MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

Below 0.9316 suggests a corrective phase is more likely.

200-Day Average

USD/CHF is unwinding from the hourly channel which we have been highlighting. A fall back down to 0.9110, after pushing over 0.9200, would lead to a break down in positive structure, giving any long trade a weaker probability of success. In fact while below 0.9316 a return to the region close to 0.8242 remains possible. However, if a break above 0.9316 can be achieved without breaking under 0.8568, a structural change will occur, increasing the probability of further gains ahead. Focus still remains on Italian and Spanish sovereign yields. Also of interest is that French government bonds are widening across the whole curve versus their German counterparts, when compared to the spread just one

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

month ago. This is a further warning sign.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011
USD/CAD (Weekly)

Bulls charging higher into 1.0658.

Stop raised to breakeven, thereby ensuring a risk-free trade. USD/CADs short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).

200-DMA (0.9838)

CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER RECOVERY

Positive momentum needs to hold above 1.0400 (on a daily close) to rebuild the potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone). A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. Only a sustained close beneath parity will unlock bearish setbacks into the

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE

CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN

long-term 200-day MA at 0.9835 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low). EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern. CHF/CAD continues to hold beneath the 200-day MA at 1.1347, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The

st

50%

(1.3570)
61.8%

cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
50%

(1.3379)

(1.1488)
61.8%

(1.0893)
200-DMA (1.1341)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 2: 1.0250, Objs: 1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0250

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011
AUD/USD
(Weekly)

Extending decline into 0.9611.

Exited Short position. All 3 objectives met. AUD/USD is extending its decline, having recently broken through the 1.0000 psychological level.
STRUCTURAL LEVEL

The sustained move below 1.0000 is now compounding downside pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE

38.2%

(0.9144)
50%

(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0405) 61.8%

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is now is within a temporary positive cycle structure while it holds above its 200-day MA. The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.80. Watch for further downside scope into 72.00 which would signal further unwinding of risk appetite.

(0.7947) KEY ZONE

AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

13

HOLDING ABOVE 200-DMA 38.2%

(76.70)
50%

(72.58)
61.8%

200DMA (82.76)

(68.47)

RESUMPTION OF BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Exited short position. All 3 Objective met (0.9710)

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

Hourly falling wedge warns of downside exhaustion.

200-Day Average

GBP/JPY has broken clearly under the 122.38/65 platform, which warns of a breakdown in positive structure. However, the hourly timeframe is currently exhibiting a falling wedge formation which is suggestive of a degree of downside exhaustion. We will thus await a bounce higher ahead of the possible formulation of a short strategy. Strictly speaking the break under 120.85 breaks down the positive structure seen since 116.84. However, the bulls would need to turn back above the 122.38/65 platform to suggest that an interim low has been seen.

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

Initial signs of support seen close to 104.00.

EUR/JPY is testing support 103.41-104.00. Failure to hold above here will
200-Day Average

lead to a complete breakdown in positive structure, with a return to 100.76 then favoured. A move back over 106.74 is required to neutralise the outlook in the shortterm. A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the mediumterm outlook more bullish. We will now monitor the price action close to 103.41-104.00 to try and determine if a short-term buying opportunity will present itself.

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Look to see how the 104.00 region fares.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP
Short-term outlook is neutralised.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

EUR/GBP is undergoing a near-term recovery, which has neutralized the outlook once again. Resistance can be found at 0.8744 and 0.8784. Only a sustained break under 0.8486 will open up a return to the January 2011 low at 0.8285. If a large move to the downside were to materialise in this environment, it is
200-Day Average

likely to be associated with Sterling being perceived as a safe haven. In this respect we need to monitor the yields on Italian, French and Spanish government bonds, noting that the ten year yield in both Italian and Spanish sovereigns are trading above 6.00%. Failure to hold under the old double bottom and trend-line will warn of a

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

false break lower, with a danger that trade returns back into the old range.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await Fresh Signal.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

Approaches the 1.2500 region once again.

EUR/CHF is maintaining its tight trading range just under the 1.2500 level.
50-week Average

It is anticipated that this zone may see a degree of resistance, particularly in light of the movement in periphery yield spreads versus bunds. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF. We would prefer to trade this from a momentum perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian government bonds.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

RISK ZONE III

DOUBLE TOP

Weakening from resistance at $1800.

Short-term price activity is weakening from resistance at 1800. This may start to weigh on constructive recovery that we have seen over the last few weeks, following Golds dramatic 20% capitulation. Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS

20% SO FAR

$1760 $1704

$1600

34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!

positions. There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1592-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS

Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)

VIDEO

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

II

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell stop 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

13

Weakening into key support at $26.0700.

Silver is weakening back into its previous swing low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major selloff in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

200 DMA (36.5125)

II

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

38.2%

(32.3135)

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

50%

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165) 13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 November, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15