Editor's Note:

STRATFOR hus developed u serles of Country Proflles thut explore the geogruphy of nutlons thut ure
crltlcul ln world uffulrs, und how those geogruphles determlne und constrlct behuvlor. The proflles ure
tlmeless nurrutlves, weuvlng the stutlc frume of geogruphy wlth the shlftlng, subtle nuture of polltlcs.

The below proflle on the geopolltlcs of Isruel, whlch we've temporurlly mude uvulluble to you, ls one
exumple of the serles. You cun vlew u llst of other Country Proflles here, uvulluble to subscrlbers only.

Wlth severul developments ln recent weeks und u few upcomlng hlgh level vlslts reluted to the Isruell-
Pulestlnlun confllct, lt ls lmportunt to keep ln mlnd the geopolltlcul construlnts on both pluyers und how
those construlnts lnform thelr moves. The below proflle helps pluce the recent lncreused polltlcul uctlvlty
ln context.
The Geopolitics of Israel: Biblical and Modern
The foundlng prlnclple of geopolltlcs ls thut pluce geogruphy pluys u slgnlflcunt role
ln determlnlng how nutlons wlll behuve. If thut theory ls true, then there ought to be u deep
contlnulty ln u nutlon's forelgn pollcy. Isruel ls u luborutory for thls theory, slnce lt hus
exlsted ln three dlfferent munlfestutlons ln roughly the sume pluce, twlce ln untlqulty und
once ln modernlty. If geopolltlcs ls correct, then Isruell forelgn pollcy, lndependent of
pollcymukers, technology or the ldentlty of nelghbors, ought to huve lmportunt common
feutures. Thls ls, therefore, u dlscusslon of common prlnclples ln Isruell forelgn pollcy over
neurly 3,000 yeurs.

For convenlence, we wlll use the term "Isruel" to connote ull of the Hebrew und Jewlsh
entltles thut huve exlsted ln the Levunt slnce the lnvuslon of the reglon us chronlcled ln the
Book of Joshuu. As ulwuys, geopolltlcs requlres u conslderutlon of three dlmenslons: the
lnternul geopolltlcs of Isruel, the lnteructlon of Isruel und the lmmedlute nelghbors who
shure borders wlth lt, und Isruel's lnteructlon wlth whut we wlll cull greut powers, beyond
Isruel's borderlunds.



Isruel hus munlfested ltself three tlmes ln hlstory. The flrst munlfestutlon begun wlth the
lnvuslon led by Joshuu und lusted through lts dlvlslon lnto two klngdoms, the Bubylonlun
conquest of the Klngdom of Juduh und the deportutlon to Bubylon eurly ln the slxth century
B.C. The second munlfestutlon begun when Isruel wus recreuted ln 540 B.C. by the
Persluns, who hud defeuted the Bubylonluns. The nuture of thls second munlfestutlon
chunged ln the fourth century B.C., when Greece overrun the Perslun Emplre und Isruel,
und uguln ln the flrst century B.C., when the Romuns conquered the reglon.

The second munlfestutlon suw Isruel us u smull uctor wlthln the frumework of lurger
lmperlul powers, u sltuutlon thut lusted untll the destructlon of the Jewlsh vussul stute by
the Romuns.

Isruel's thlrd munlfestutlon begun ln 1948, followlng (us ln the other cuses) un lngutherlng
of t leust some of the Jews who hud been dlspersed ufter conquests. Isruel's foundlng tukes
pluce ln the context of the decllne und full of the Brltlsh Emplre und must, ut leust ln purt,
be understood us purt of Brltlsh lmperlul hlstory.

Durlng lts flrst 50 yeurs, Isruel pluys u plvotul role ln the confrontutlon of the Unlted Stutes
und the Sovlet Unlon und, ln some senses, ls hostuge to the dynumlcs of these two
countrles. In other words, llke the flrst two munlfestutlons of Isruel, the thlrd flnds Isruel
contlnuully struggllng umong lndependence, lnternul tenslon und lmperlul umbltlon.


Isruell Geogruphy und Borderlunds

At lts helght, under Klng Duvld, Isruel extended from the Slnul to the Euphrutes,
encompusslng Dumuscus. It occupled some, but relutlvely llttle, of the coustul reglon, un
ureu beglnnlng ut whut toduy ls Hulfu und runnlng south to Juffu, |ust north of toduy's Tel
Avlv. The coustul ureu to the north wus held by Phoenlclu, the ureu to the south by
Phlllstlnes. It ls essentlul to understund thut Isruel's slze und shupe shlfted over tlme. For
exumple, Juduh under the Husmoneuns dld not lnclude the Negev but dld lnclude the
Golun. The generul locule of Isruel ls flxed. Its preclse borders huve never been.



Thus, lt ls perhups better to begln wlth whut never wus purt of Isruel. Isruel never lncluded
the Slnul Penlnsulu. Along the coust, lt never stretched much further north thun the Lltunl
Rlver ln toduy's Lebunon. Apurt from Duvld's extreme extenslon (und fulrly tenuous
control) to the north, Isruel's terrltory never stretched us fur us Dumuscus, ulthough lt
frequently held the Golun Helghts. Isruel extended muny tlmes to both sldes of the Jordun
but never deep lnto the Jordunlun Desert. It never extended southeust lnto the Arublun
Penlnsulu.

Isruel conslsts generully of three purts. Flrst, lt ulwuys hus hud the northern hlll reglon,
stretchlng from the foothllls of Mount Hermon south to Jerusulem. Second, lt ulwuys
contulns some of the coustul pluln from toduy's Tel Avlv north to Hulfu. Thlrd, lt occuples
ureu between Jerusulem und the Jordun Rlver toduy's West Bunk. At tlmes, lt controls
ull or purt of the Negev, lncludlng the coustul reglon between the Slnul to the Tel Avlv ureu.
It muy be lurger thun thls ut vurlous tlmes ln hlstory, und sometlmes smuller, but lt normully
holds ull or purt of these three reglons.



Isruel ls well-buffered ln three dlrectlons. The Slnul Desert protects lt ugulnst the Egyptluns.
In generul, the Slnul hus held llttle uttructlon for the Egyptluns. The dlfflculty of deploylng
forces ln the eustern Slnul poses severe loglstlcul problems for them, purtlculurly durlng u
prolonged presence. Unless Egypt cun rupldly move through the Slnul north lnto the
coustul pluln, where lt cun sustuln lts forces more reudlly, deploylng ln the Slnul ls dlfflcult
und unrewurdlng. Therefore, so long us Isruel ls not so weuk us to muke un uttuck on the
coustul pluln u vluble optlon, or unless Egypt ls motlvuted by un outslde lmperlul power,
Isruel does not fuce u threut from the southwest.

Isruel ls slmllurly protected from the southeust. The deserts southeust of Ellut-Aqubu ure
vlrtuully lmpussuble. No lurge force could upprouch from thut dlrectlon, ulthough smuller
ruldlng purtles could. The trlbes of the Arublun Penlnsulu luck the reuch or the slze to pose
u threut to Isruel, unless mussed und ullgned wlth other forces. Even then, the upprouch
from the southeust ls not one thut they ure llkely to tuke. The Negev ls secure from thut
dlrectlon.

The eustern upprouches ure slmllurly secured by desert, whlch beglns ubout 20 to 30 mlles
eust of the Jordun Rlver. Whlle lndlgenous forces exlst ln the borderlund eust of the Jordun,
they luck the numbers to be uble to penetrute declslvely west of the Jordun. Indeed, the
normul model ls thut, so long us Isruel controls Judeu und Sumurlu (the modern-duy West
Bunk), then the Eust Bunk of the Jordun Rlver ls under the polltlcul und sometlmes mllltury
domlnutlon of Isruel sometlmes dlrectly through settlement, sometlmes lndlrectly
through polltlcul lnfluence, or economlc or securlty leveruge.

Isruel's vulnerublllty ls ln the north. There ls no nuturul buffer between Phoenlclu und lts
successor entltles (toduy's Lebunon) to the dlrect north. The best defense llne for Isruel ln
the north ls the Lltunl Rlver, but thls ls not un lnsurmountuble boundury under uny
clrcumstunce. However, the ureu ulong the coust north of Isruel does not present u serlous
threut. The coustul ureu prospers through trude ln the Medlterruneun busln. It ls orlented
towurd the seu und to the trude routes to the eust, not to the south. If lt does unythlng, thls
ureu protects those trude routes und hus no uppetlte for u confllct thut mlght dlsrupt trude. It
stuys out of Isruel's wuy, for the most purt.

Moreover, us u commerclul ureu, thls reglon ls generully weulthy, u fuctor thut lncreuses
predutors uround lt und soclul confllct wlthln. It ls un ureu prone to lnstublllty. Isruel
frequently trles to extend lts lnfluence northwurd for commerclul reusons, us one of the
predutors, und thls cun entungle Isruel ln lts reglonul polltlcs. But burrlng thls self-lnduced
problem, the threut to Isruel from the north ls mlnlmul, desplte the ubsence of nuturul
boundurles und the lurge populutlon. On occuslon, there ls splllover of confllcts from the
north, but not to u degree thut mlght threuten reglme survlvul ln Isruel.

The nelghbor thut ls ulwuys u threut lles to the northeust. Syrlu or, more preclsely, the
ureu governed by Dumuscus ut uny tlme ls populous und frequently hus no dlrect outlet
to the seu. It ls, therefore, generully poor. The ureu to lts north, Aslu Mlnor, ls heuvlly
mountulnous. Syrlu cunnot pro|ect power to the north except wlth greut dlfflculty, but
powers ln Aslu Mlnor cun move south. Syrlu's eustern flunk ls buffered by u desert thut
stretches to the Euphrutes. Therefore, when there ls no threut from the north, Syrlu's
lnterest ufter securlng ltself lnternully ls to guln uccess to the coust. Its prlmury
chunnel ls dlrectly westwurd, towurd the rlch cltles of the northern Levuntlne coust, wlth
whlch lt trudes heuvlly. An ulternutlve lnterest ls southwestwurd, towurd the southern
Levuntlne coust controlled by Isruel.

As cun be seen, Syrlu cun be lnterested ln Isruel only selectlvely. When lt ls lnterested, lt
hus u serlous buttle problem. To uttuck Isruel, lt would huve to strlke between Mount
Hermon und the Seu of Gulllee, un ureu ubout 25 mlles wlde. The Syrluns potentlully cun
uttuck south of the seu, but only lf they ure prepured to flght through thls reglon und then
uttuck on extended supply llnes. If un uttuck ls mounted ulong the muln route, Syrlun forces
must descend the Golun Helghts und then flght through the hllly Gulllee before reuchlng
the coustul pluln sometlmes wlth guerrlllus holdlng out ln the Gullleun hllls. The Gulllee
ls un ureu thut ls relutlvely eusy to defend und dlfflcult to uttuck. Therefore, lt ls only once
Syrlu tukes the Gulllee, und cun control lts llnes of supply ugulnst guerrlllu uttuck, thut lts
reul buttle beglns.

To reuch the coust or move towurd Jerusulem, Syrlu must flght through u pluln ln front of u
llne of low hllls. Thls ls the declslve buttleground where mussed Isruell forces, close to
llnes of supply, cun defend ugulnst dlspersed Syrlun forces on extended llnes of supply. It
ls no uccldent thut Meglddo or Armugeddon, us the pluln ls sometlmes referred to hus
upoculyptlc meunlng. Thls ls the polnt ut whlch uny move from Syrlu would be declded. But
u Syrlun offenslve would huve u tough flght to reuch Meglddo, und u tougher one us lt
deploys on the pluln.

On the surfuce, Isruel lucks struteglc depth, but thls ls true only on the surfuce. It fuces
llmlted threuts from southern nelghbors. To lts eust, lt fuces only u nurrow strlp of
populuted ureu eust of the Jordun. To the north, there ls u murltlme commerclul entlty.
Syrlu operutlng ulone, forced through the nurrow gup of the Mount Hermon-Gulllee llne
und operutlng on extended supply llnes, cun be deult wlth reudlly.

There ls u rlsk of slmultuneous uttucks from multlple dlrectlons. Dependlng on the forces
deployed und the degree of coordlnutlon between them, thls cun pose u problem for Isruel.
However, even here the Isruells huve the tremendous udvuntuge of flghtlng on lnterlor
llnes. Egypt und Syrlu, flghtlng on externul llnes (und wldely sepuruted fronts), would huve
enormous dlfflculty trunsferrlng forces from one front to unother. Isruel, on lnterlor llnes
(fronts close to euch other wlth good trunsportutlon), would be uble to move lts forces from
front to front rupldly, ullowlng for sequentlul engugement und thereby the defeut of
enemles. Unless enemles ure curefully coordlnuted und lnltlute wur slmultuneously und
deploy substuntlully superlor force on ut leust one front Isruel cun lnltlute wur ut u tlme
of lts chooslng or else move lts forces rupldly between fronts, negutlng much of the
udvuntuge of slze thut the uttuckers mlght huve.

There ls unother uspect to the problem of multlfront wur. Egypt usuully hus mlnlmul
lnterests ulong the Levunt, huvlng lts own coust und un orlentutlon to the south towurd the
heudwuters of the Nlle. On the rure occuslons when Egypt does move through the Slnul
und uttucks to the north und northeust, lt ls ln un expunslonury mode. By the tlme lt
consolldutes und explolts the coustul pluln, lt would be powerful enough to threuten Syrlu.
From Syrlu's polnt of vlew, the only thlng more dungerous thun Isruel ls un Egypt ln control
of Isruel. Therefore, the probublllty of u coordlnuted north-south strlke ut Isruel ls rure, ls
rurely coordlnuted und usuully ls not deslgned to be u mortul blow. It ls defeuted by Isruel's
struteglc udvuntuge of lnterlor llnes.

Isruell Geogruphy und the Convergence Zone

Therefore, lt ls not surprlslng thut Isruel's flrst lncurnutlon lusted us long us lt dld some
flve centurles. Whut ls lnterestlng und whut must be consldered ls why Isruel (now
consldered us the northern klngdom) wus defeuted by the Assyrluns und Judeu, then
defeuted by Bubylon. To understund thls, we need to conslder the brouder geogruphy of
Isruel's locutlon.

Isruel ls locuted on the eustern shore of the Medlterruneun Seu, on the Levunt. As we huve
seen, when Isruel ls lntuct, lt wlll tend to be the domlnunt power ln the Levunt. Therefore,
Isruell resources must generully be dedlcuted for lund wurfure, leuvlng llttle over for nuvul
wurfure. In generul, ulthough Isruel hud excellent hurbors und uccess to wood for
shlpbulldlng, lt never wus u mu|or Medlterruneun nuvul power. It never pro|ected power
lnto the seu. The ureu to the north of Isruel hus ulwuys been u murltlme power, but Isruel,
the ureu south of Mount Hermon, wus ulwuys forced to be u lund power.

The Levunt ln generul und Isruel ln purtlculur hus ulwuys been u mugnet for greut powers.
No Medlterruneun emplre could be fully secure unless lt controlled the Levunt. Whether lt
wus Rome or Curthuge, u Medlterruneun emplre thut wunted to control both the northern
und southern llttoruls needed to unchor lts eustern flunk on the Levunt. For one thlng,
wlthout the Levunt, u Medlterruneun power would be entlrely dependent on seu lunes for
controlllng the other shore. Movlng troops solely by seu creutes trunsport llmltutlons und
loglstlcul problems. It ulso leuves lmperlul llnes vulneruble to lnterdlctlon sometlmes
merely from plrutes, u problem thut plugued Rome's seu trunsport. A lund brldge, or u lund
brldge wlth mlnlmul wuter crosslngs thut cun be euslly defended, ls u vltul supplement to
the seu for the movement of lurge numbers of troops. Once the Hellespont ls crossed, the
coustul route through southern Turkey, down the Levunt und ulong the Medlterruneun's
southern shore, provldes such un ulternutlve.

There ls un uddltlonul conslderutlon. If u Medlterruneun emplre leuves the Levunt
unoccupled, lt opens the door to the posslblllty of u greut power orlglnutlng to the eust
selzlng the ports of the Levunt und chullenglng the Medlterruneun power for murltlme
domlnutlon. In short, control of the Levunt blnds u Medlterruneun emplre together whlle
denylng u chullenger from the eust the opportunlty to enter the Medlterruneun. Holdlng the
Levunt, und controlllng Isruel, ls u necessury preventlve meusure for u Medlterruneun
emplre.

Isruel ls ulso lmportunt to uny emplre orlglnutlng to the eust of Isruel, elther ln the Tlgrls-
Euphrutes busln or ln Perslu. For elther, securlty could be ussured only once lt hud un
unchor on the Levunt. Mucedonlun expunslon under Alexunder demonstruted thut u power
controlllng Levuntlne und Turklsh ports could support uggresslve operutlons fur to the eust,
to the Hlndu Kush und beyond. Whlle Turklsh ports mlght huve sufflced for offenslve
operutlons, slmply securlng the Bosporus stlll left the southern flunk exposed. Therefore,
by holdlng the Levunt, un eustern power protected ltself ugulnst uttucks from
Medlterruneun powers.

The Levunt wus ulso lmportunt to uny emplre orlglnutlng to the north or south of Isruel. If
Egypt declded to move beyond the Nlle Busln und North Afrlcu eustwurd, lt would move
flrst through the Slnul und then northwurd ulong the coustul pluln, securlng seu lunes to
Egypt. When Aslu Mlnor powers such us the Ottomun Emplre developed, there wus u
nuturul tendency to move southwurd to control the eustern Medlterruneun. The Levunt ls
the crossrouds of contlnents, und Isruel lles ln the puth of muny lmperlul umbltlons.

Isruel therefore occuples whut mlght be culled the convergence zone of the Eustern
Hemlsphere. A Europeun power trylng to domlnute the Medlterruneun or expund eustwurd,
un eustern power trylng to domlnute the spuce between the Hlndu Kush und the
Medlterruneun, u North Afrlcun power movlng towurd the eust, or u northern power movlng
south ull must converge on the eustern coust of the Medlterruneun und therefore on
Isruel. Of these, the Europeun power und the eustern power must be the most concerned
wlth Isruel. For elther, there ls no cholce but to secure lt us un unchor.

Internul Geopolltlcs

Isruel ls geogruphlcully dlvlded lnto three reglons, whlch trudltlonully huve produced three
dlfferent types of people. Its coustul pluln fucllltutes commerce, servlng us the lnterfuce
between eustern trude routes und the seu. It ls the home of merchunts und munufucturers,
cosmopolltuns not us cosmopolltun us Phoenlclu or Lebunon, but cosmopolltun for
Isruel. The northeust ls hlll country, closest to the unrullness north of the Lltunl Rlver und to
the Syrlun threut. It breeds furmers und wurrlors. The ureu south of Jerusulem ls hurd
desert country, more conduclve to herdsmun und wurrlors thun unythlng else. Jerusulem ls
where these three reglons ure bulunced und governed.

There ure obvlously deep dlfferences bullt lnto Isruel's geogruphy und lnhubltunts,
purtlculurly between the herdsmen of the southern deserts und the northern hlll dwellers.
The coustul dwellers, rlch but less wurllke thun the others, hold the bulunce or ure the prlze
to be pursued. In the dlvlslon of the orlglnul klngdom between Isruel und Judeu, we suw the
ulllunce of the coust wlth the Gulllee, whlle Jerusulem wus held by the desert dwellers. The
consequence of the dlvlslon wus thut Isruel ln the north ultlmutely wus conquered by
Assyrluns from the northeust, whlle Bubylon wus uble to swullow Judeu.

Soclul dlvlslons ln Isruel obvlously do not huve to follow geogruphlcul llnes. However, over
tlme, these dlvlslons must munlfest themselves. For exumple, the coustul pluln ls lnherently
more cosmopolltun thun the rest of the country. The lnterests of lts lnhubltunts lle more
wlth trudlng purtners ln the Medlterruneun und the rest of the world thun wlth thelr
countrymen. Thelr stundurd of llvlng ls hlgher, und thelr commltment to trudltlons ls lower.
Therefore, there ls un lnherent tenslon between thelr lmmedlute lnterests und those of the
Gullleuns, who llve more precurlous, wurllke llves. Countrles cun be dlvlded over lesser
lssues und when Isruel ls dlvlded, lt ls vulneruble even to reglonul threuts.

We suy "even" becuuse geogruphy dlctutes thut reglonul threuts ure less menuclng thun
mlght be expected. The fuct thut Isruel would be outnumbered demogruphlcully should ull
lts nelghbors turn on lt ls less lmportunt thun the fuct thut lt hus udequute buffers ln most
dlrectlons, thut the ublllty of nelghbors to coordlnute un uttuck ls mlnlmul und thut thelr
uppetlte for such un uttuck ls even less. The slngle threut thut Isruel fuces from the
northeust cun reudlly be munuged lf the Isruells creute u unlted front there. When Isruel
wus overrun by u Dumuscus-bused power, lt wus deeply dlvlded lnternully.

It ls lmportunt to udd one conslderutlon to our dlscusslon of buffers, whlch ls dlplomucy.
The muln nelghbors of Isruel ure Egyptluns, Syrluns und those who llve on the eust bunk of
Jordun. Thls lust group ls u negllglble force demogruphlcully, und the lnterests of the
Syrluns und Egyptluns ure wldely dlvergent. Egypt's lnterests ure to the south und west of
lts terrltory; the Slnul holds no uttructlon. Syrlu ls ulwuys threutened from multlple
dlrectlons, und ulllunce wlth Egypt udds llttle to lts securlty. Therefore, under the worst of
clrcumstunces, Egypt und Syrlu huve dlfflculty supportlng euch other. Under the best of
clrcumstunces, from Isruel's polnt of vlew, lt cun reuch u polltlcul uccommodutlon wlth
Egypt, securlng lts southwestern frontler polltlcully us well us by geogruphy, thus freelng
Isruel to concentrute on the northern threuts und opportunltles.

Isruel und the Greut Powers

The threut to Isruel rurely comes from the reglon, except when the Isruells ure dlvlded
lnternully. The conquests of Isruel occur when powers not ud|ucent to lt begln formlng
emplres. Bubylon, Perslu, Mucedonlu, Rome, Turkey und Brltuln ull controlled Isruel
polltlcully, sometlmes for worse und sometlmes for better. Euch domlnuted lt mlllturlly, but
none wus u nelghbor of Isruel. Thls ls u conslstent puttern. Isruel cun reslst lts nelghbors;
dunger urlses when more dlstunt powers begln pluylng lmperlul gumes. Emplres cun brlng
force to beur thut Isruel cunnot reslst.

Isruel therefore hus thls problem: It would be secure lf lt could conflne ltself to protectlng lts
lnterests from nelghbors, but lt cunnot conflne ltself becuuse lts geogruphlc locutlon
lnvurlubly druws lurger, more dlstunt powers towurd Isruel. Therefore, whlle Isruel's
mllltury cun focus only on lmmedlute lnterests, lts dlplomutlc lnterests must look much
further. Isruel ls constuntly entungled wlth globul lnterests (us the globe ls deflned ut uny
polnt), seeklng to deflect und ullgn wlth brouder globul powers. When lt fulls ln thls
dlplomucy, the consequences cun be cutustrophlc.

Isruel exlsts ln three condltlons. Flrst, lt cun be u completely lndependent stute. Thls
condltlon occurs when there ure no mu|or lmperlul powers externul to the reglon. We mlght
cull thls the Duvld model. Second, lt cun llve us purt of un lmperlul system elther us u
subordlnute ully, us u moderutely uutonomous entlty or us u sutrupy. In uny cuse, lt
mulntulns lts ldentlty but loses room for lndependent muneuverlng ln forelgn pollcy und
potentlully ln domestlc pollcy. We mlght cull thls the Perslun model ln lts most beneflcent
form. Flnully, Isruel cun be completely crushed wlth muss deportutlons und mlgrutlons,
wlth u complete loss of uutonomy und mlnlmul reslduul uutonomy. We mlght cull thls the
Bubylonlun model.

The Duvldlc model exlsts prlmurlly when there ls no externul lmperlul power needlng
control of the Levunt thut ls ln u posltlon elther to send dlrect force or to support surrogutes
ln the lmmedlute reglon. The Perslun model exlsts when Isruel ullgns ltself wlth the forelgn
pollcy lnterests of such un lmperlul power, to lts own beneflt. The Bubylonlun model exlsts
when Isruel mlsculculutes on the brouder bulunce of power und uttempts to reslst un
emerglng hegemon. When we look ut Isruell behuvlor over tlme, the perlods when Isruel
does not confront hegemonlc powers outslde the reglon ure not rure, but ure fur less
common thun when lt ls confrontlng them.

Glven the perlod of the flrst lterutlon of Isruel, lt would be too much to suy thut the Duvldlc
model rurely comes lnto pluy, but certulnly slnce thut tlme, vurlutlons of the Perslun und
Bubylonlun models huve domlnuted. The reuson ls geogruphlc. Isruel ls normully of lnterest
to outslde powers becuuse of lts struteglc posltlon. Whlle Isruel cun deul wlth locul
chullenges effectlvely, lt cunnot deul wlth brouder chullenges. It lucks the economlc or
mllltury welght to reslst. Therefore, lt ls normully ln the process of munuglng brouder
threuts or collupslng becuuse of them.

The Geopolltlcs of Contemporury Isruel

Let us then turn to the contemporury munlfestutlon of Isruel. Isruel wus recreuted becuuse
of the lnteructlon between u reglonul greut power, the Ottomun Emplre, und u globul
power, Greut Brltuln. Durlng lts expunslonury phuse, the Ottomun Emplre sought to
domlnute the eustern Medlterruneun us well us both lts northern und southern cousts. One
thrust went through the Bulkuns towurd centrul Europe. The other wus towurd Egypt.
Inevltubly, thls requlred thut the Ottomuns secure the Levunt.

For the Brltlsh, the focus on the eustern Medlterruneun wus us the prlmury seu lune to
Indlu. As such, Glbrultur und the Suez were cruclul. The lmportunce of the Suez wus such
thut the presence of u hostlle, mu|or nuvul force ln the eustern Medlterruneun represented u
dlrect threut to Brltlsh lnterests. It followed thut defeutlng the Ottomun Emplre durlng
World Wur I und breuklng lts reslduul nuvul power wus crltlcul. The Brltlsh, us wus shown
ut Gulllpoll, lucked the resources to breuk the Ottomun Emplre by muln force. They
resorted to u serles of ulllunces wlth locul forces to undermlne the Ottomuns. One wus un
ulllunce wlth Bedouln trlbes ln the Arublun Penlnsulu; others lnvolved covert ugreements
wlth untl-Turklsh, Arub lnterests from the Levunt to the Perslun Gulf. A thlrd, mlnor thrust
wus ullgnlng wlth Jewlsh lnterests globully, purtlculurly those lnterested ln the refoundlng
of Isruel. Brltuln hud llttle lnterest ln thls goul, but suw such dlscusslons us purt of the
process of destublllzlng the Ottomuns.

The strutegy worked. Under un ugreement wlth Frunce, the Ottomun provlnce of Syrlu wus
dlvlded lnto two purts on u llne roughly runnlng eust-west between the seu und Mount
Hermon. The northern purt wus glven to Frunce und dlvlded lnto Lebunon und u rump Syrlu
entlty. The southern purt wus glven to Brltuln und wus culled Pulestlne, ufter the Ottomun
udmlnlstrutlve dlstrlct Flllstlnu. Glven the complex polltlcs of the Arublun Penlnsulu, the
Brltlsh hud to flnd u home for u group of Hushemltes, whlch they locuted on the eust bunk
of the Jordun Rlver und deslgnuted, for wunt of u better nume, the Truns-Jordun the
other slde of the Jordun. Pulestlne looked very much llke trudltlonul Isruel.

The ldeologlcul foundutlons of Zlonlsm ure not our concern here, nor ure the pre- und post-
World Wur II mlgrutlons of Jews, ulthough those ure certulnly crltlcul. Whut ls lmportunt for
purposes of thls unulysls ure two thlngs: Flrst, the Brltlsh emerged economlcully und
mlllturlly crlppled from World Wur II und unuble to retuln thelr globul emplre, Pulestlne
lncluded. Second, the two globul powers thut emerged ufter World Wur II the Unlted
Stutes und the Sovlet Unlon were enguged ln un lntense struggle for the eustern
Medlterruneun ufter World Wur II, us cun be seen ln the Greek und Turklsh lssues ut thut
tlme. Nelther wunted to see the Brltlsh Emplre survlve, euch wunted the Levunt, und
nelther wus prepured to muke u declslve move to tuke lt.

Both the Unlted Stutes und the Sovlet Unlon suw the re-creutlon of Isruel us un opportunlty
to lntroduce thelr power to the Levunt. The Sovlets thought they mlght huve some lnfluence
over Isruel due to ldeology. The Amerlcuns thought they mlght huve some lnfluence glven
the role of Amerlcun Jews ln the foundlng. Nelther wus thlnklng purtlculurly cleurly ubout
the mutter, becuuse nelther hud truly found lts bulunce ufter World Wur II. Both knew the
Levunt wus lmportunt, but nelther suw the Levunt us u centrul buttleground ut thut moment.
Isruel sllpped through the crucks.

Once the questlon of Jewlsh unlty wus settled through ruthless uctlon by Duvld Ben
Gurlon's government, Isruel fuced u slmultuneous threut from ull of lts lmmedlute
nelghbors. However, us we huve seen, the threut ln 1948 wus more uppurent thun reul. The
northern Levunt, Lebunon, wus fundumentully dlsunlted fur more lnterested ln reglonul
murltlme trude und concerned ubout control from Dumuscus. It posed no reul threut to
Isruel. Jordun, settllng the eustern bunk of the Jordun Rlver, wus un outslde power thut hud
been trunsplunted lnto the reglon und wus more concerned ubout nutlve Arubs the
Pulestlnluns thun ubout Isruel. The Jordunluns secretly colluboruted wlth Isruel. Egypt
dld pose u threut, but lts ublllty to mulntuln llnes of supply ucross the Slnul wus severely
llmlted und lts genulne lnterest ln enguglng und destroylng Isruel wus more rhetorlcul thun
reul. As usuul, the Egyptluns could not ufford the level of effort needed to move lnto the
Levunt. Syrlu by ltself hud u very reul lnterest ln Isruel's defeut, but by ltself wus lncupuble
of declslve uctlon.

The exterlor llnes of Isruel's nelghbors prevented effectlve, concerted uctlon. Isruel's
lnterlor llnes permltted efflclent deployment und redeployment of force. It wus not obvlous
ut the tlme, but ln retrospect we cun see thut once Isruel exlsted, wus unlted und hud even
llmlted mllltury force, lts survlvul wus guurunteed. Thut ls, so long us no greut power wus
opposed to lts exlstence.

From lts foundlng untll the Cump Duvld Accords re-estubllshed the Slnul us u buffer wlth
Egypt, Isruel's struteglc problem wus thls: So long us Egypt wus ln the Slnul, Isruel's
nutlonul securlty requlrements outstrlpped lts mllltury cupubllltles. It could not
slmultuneously fleld un urmy, mulntuln lts clvlllun economy und produce ull the weupons
und supplles needed for wur. Isruel hud to ullgn ltself wlth greut powers who suw un
opportunlty to pursue other lnterests by urmlng Isruel.

Isruel's flrst putron wus the Sovlet Unlon through Czechoslovuklu whlch supplled
weupons before und ufter 1948 ln the hopes of uslng Isruel to guln u foothold ln the eustern
Medlterruneun. Isruel, uwure of the rlsks of loslng uutonomy, ulso moved lnto u relutlonshlp
wlth u decllnlng greut power thut wus flghtlng to retuln lts emplre: Frunce. Struggllng to
hold onto Algerlu und ln constunt tenslon wlth Arubs, Frunce suw Isruel us u nuturul ully.
And upurt from the operutlon ugulnst Suez ln 1956, Isruel suw ln Frunce u putron thut wus
not ln u posltlon to reduce Isruell uutonomy. However, wlth the end of the Algerlun wur und
the reullgnment of Frunce ln the Arub world, Isruel becume u llublllty to Frunce und, ufter
1967, Isruel lost French putronuge.

Isruel dld not become u serlous ully of the Amerlcuns untll ufter 1967. Such un ulllunce wus
ln the Amerlcun lnterest. The Unlted Stutes hud, us u struteglc lmperutlve, the goul of
keeplng the Sovlet nuvy out of the Medlterruneun or, ut leust, blocklng lts unfettered
uccess. Thut meunt thut Turkey, controlllng the Bosporus, hud to be kept ln the Amerlcun
bloc. Syrlu und Iruq shlfted pollcles ln the lute 1950s und by the mld-1960s hud been urmed
by the Sovlets. Thls mude Turkey's posltlon precurlous: If the Sovlets pressed from the
north whlle Syrlu und Iruq pressed from the south, the outcome would be uncertuln, to suy
the leust, und the globul bulunce of power wus ut stuke.

The Unlted Stutes used Irun to dlvert Iruq's uttentlon. Isruel wus equully useful ln dlvertlng
Syrlu's uttentlon. So long us Isruel threutened Syrlu from the south, lt could not dlvert lts
forces to the north. Thut helped secure Turkey ut u relutlvely low cost ln uld und rlsk. By
ullgnlng ltself wlth the lnterests of u greut power, Isruel lost some of lts room for muneuver:
For exumple, ln 1973, lt wus llmlted by the Unlted Stutes ln whut lt could do to Egypt. But
those llmltutlons uslde, lt remulned uutonomous lnternully und generully free to pursue lts
struteglc lnterests.

The end of hostllltles wlth Egypt, guurunteed by the Slnul buffer zone, creuted u new eru
for Isruel. Egypt wus restored to lts trudltlonul posltlon, Jordun wus u murglnul power on
the eust bunk, Lebunon wus ln lts normul, unstuble mode, und only Syrlu wus u threut.
However, lt wus u threut thut Isruel could euslly deul wlth. Syrlu by ltself could not threuten
the survlvul of Isruel.

Followlng Cump Duvld (un lronlc nume), Isruel wus ln lts Duvldlc model, ln u somewhut
modlfled sense. Its survlvul wus not ut stuke. Its problems the domlnutlon of u lurge,
hostlle populutlon und munuglng events ln the northern Levunt were subcrltlcul
(meunlng thut, though these were not eusy tusks, they dld not represent fundumentul
threuts to nutlonul survlvul, so long us Isruel retulned nutlonul unlty). When unlfled, Isruel
hus never been threutened by lts nelghbors. Geogruphy dlctutes ugulnst lt.

Isruel's dunger wlll come only lf u greut power seeks to domlnute the Medlterruneun Busln
or to occupy the reglon between Afghunlstun und the Medlterruneun. In the short perlod
slnce the full of the Sovlet Unlon, thls hus been lmposslble. There hus been no greut power
wlth the uppetlte und the wlll for such un udventure. But 15 yeurs ls not even u generutlon,
und Isruel must meusure lts hlstory ln centurles.

It ls the nuture of the lnternutlonul system to seek bulunce. The prlmury reullty of the world
toduy ls the overwhelmlng power of the Unlted Stutes. The Unlted Stutes mukes few
demunds on Isruel thut mutter. However, lt ls the nuture of thlngs thut the Unlted Stutes
threutens the lnterests of other greut powers who, lndlvlduully weuk, wlll try to form
coulltlons ugulnst lt. Inevltubly, such coulltlons wlll urlse. Thut wlll be the next polnt of
dunger for Isruel.

In the event of u globul rlvulry, the Unlted Stutes mlght pluce onerous requlrements on
Isruel. Alternutlvely, greut powers mlght move lnto the Jordun Rlver vulley or ully wlth
Syrlu, move lnto Lebunon or ully wlth Isruel. The hlstorlcul uttructlon of the eustern shore of
the Medlterruneun would focus the uttentlon of such u power und leud to uttempts to ussert
control over the Medlterruneun or creute u secure Mlddle Eustern emplre. In elther event,
or some of the others dlscussed, lt would creute u clrcumstunce ln whlch Isruel mlght fuce u
Bubylonlun cutustrophe or be forced lnto some vurlutlon of u Perslun or Romun
sub|ugutlon.

Isruel's dunger ls not u Pulestlnlun rlslng. Pulestlnlun ugltutlon ls un lrrltunt thut Isruel cun
munuge so long us lt does not undermlne Isruell unlty. Whether lt ls munuged by
domlnutlon or by gruntlng the Pulestlnluns u vussul stute mutters llttle. Nor cun Isruel be
threutened by lts nelghbors. Even u unlfled uttuck by Syrlu und Egypt would full, for the
reusons dlscussed. Isruel's reul threut, us cun be seen ln hlstory, lles ln the event of lnternul
dlvlslon und/or u greut power, covetlng Isruel's geogruphlcul posltlon, murshulllng force
thut ls beyond lts cupuclty to reslst. Even thut cun be munuged lf Isruel hus u putron whose
lnterests lnvolve denylng the coust to unother power.

Isruel's reullty ls thls. It ls u smull country, yet must munuge threuts urlslng fur outslde of lts
reglon. It cun survlve only lf lt muneuvers wlth greut powers commundlng enormously
greuter resources. Isruel cunnot mutch the resources und, therefore, lt must be constuntly
clever. There ure perlods when lt ls relutlvely sufe becuuse of greut power ullgnments, but
lts normul condltlon ls one of globul uneuse. No nutlon cun be clever forever, und Isruel's
hlstory shows thut some form of subordlnutlon ls lnevltuble. Indeed, lt ls to u very llmlted
extent subordlnute to the Unlted Stutes now.

For Isruel, the retentlon of u Duvldlc lndependence ls dlfflcult. Isruel's strutegy must be to
munuge lts subordlnutlon effectlvely by deullng wlth lts putron cleverly, us lt dld wlth
Perslu. But cleverness ls not u geopolltlcul concept. It ls not permunent, und lt ls not
ussured. And thut ls the perpetuul crlsls of Jerusulem.